Why incompetent people think they're amazing - David Dunning

Prevoditelj: Jasna Matek Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Are you as good at things as you think you are?

Jeste li toliko dobri koliko mislite?

How good are you at managing money?

Koliko dobro raspolažete novcem?

What about reading people's emotions?

Kakvi ste u čitanju ljudskih emocija?

How healthy are you compared to other people you know?

Koliko ste zdravi u usporedbi s ostalima koje znate?

Are you better than average at grammar?

Jeste li nadprosječni u gramatici?

Knowing how competent we are

Znati koliko smo sposobni

and how are skill stack up against other people's

i kakve su naše vještine u usporedbi s drugima

is more than a self-esteem boost.

više je od običnog podizanja samopouzdanja.

It helps us figure out when we can forge ahead on our own decisions and instincts

To nam pomaže shvatiti kad možemo nastaviti s odlukama i instinktima

and when we need, instead, to seek out advice.

i kad, umjesto toga, trebamo potražiti savjet.

But psychological research suggests that we're not very good

No, psihološko istraživanje pokazuje da nismo naročito dobri

at evaluating ourselves accurately.

u točnom prosuđivanju samih sebe.

In fact, we frequently overestimate our own abilities.

Zapravo, često precijenjujemo vlastite sposobnosti.

Researchers have a name for this phenomena,

Znanstvenici imaju naziv za ovaj fenomen,

the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Dunning-Krugerov efekt.

This effect explains why more than 100 studies

To objašnjava zašto je više od 100 studija

have shown that people display illusory superiority.

pokazalo da ljudi posjeduju iluzornu superiornost.

We judge ourselves as better than others

Sudimo sebi samima bolje nego ostalima

to a degree that violates the laws of math.

do te mjere da to prkosi matematičkim zakonima.

When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance,

Kad su programeri dviju kompanija trebali ocijeniti svoj rad,

32% of the engineers at one company and 42% at the other

32% programera jedne kompanije i 42% druge

put themselves in the top 5%.

stavili su se u prvih 5%.

In another study, 88% of American drivers

U drugoj studiji, 88% američkih vozača

described themselves as having above average driving skills.

opisali su svoje vozačke sposobnosti kao nadprosječne.

These aren't isolated findings.

To nisu jedinstveni rezultati.

On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most

U prosjeku, ljudi sebe ocjenjuju bolje nego ostale

in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.

na različitim poljima - od zdravlja, vodstva, etike itd.

What's particularly interesting is that those with the least ability

Ono što je posebno zanimljivo je da najmanje sposobni ljudi

are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent.

često najviše precijenjuju svoje vještine.

People measurably poor at logical reasoning,

Ljudi koji su slabi u logičkom prosuđivanju,

grammar,

gramatici,

financial knowledge,

financijskom znanju,

math,

emotional intelligence,

matematici,

emocionalnoj inteligenciji

running medical lab tests,

provođenju laboratorijskih testova

and chess

i šahu

all tend to rate their expertise almost as favorably as actual experts do.

svi ocjenjuju svoju stručnost gotovo jednako kao i pravi stručnjaci.

So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?

Pa, tko je najpodložniji ovoj zabludi?

Sadly, all of us because we all have pockets of incompetence

Nažalost, svi mi jer svi imamo rupe u znanju i sposobnostima

we don't recognize.

koje ne prepoznajemo.

But why?

Ali zašto?

When psychologists Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999,

Kad su psiholozi Dunning i Kruger prvi put 1999. godine opisali efekt,

they argued that people lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas

tvrdili su da ljudi s manjkom znanja i vještina u određenim područjima

suffer a double curse.

imaju dvostruko prokletstvo.

First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions.

Prvo, čine greške i donose loše odluke.

But second, those same knowledge gaps also prevent them from catching their errors.

Ali, drugo, te iste rupe u znanju ih sprječavaju da primijete svoje greške.

In other words, poor performers lack the very expertise needed

Drugim riječima, oni sa slabijom izvedbom nemaju stručnost

to recognize how badly they're doing.

prepoznati koliko im loše ide.

For example, when the researchers studied

Primjerice, kad su znanstvenici proučavali

participants in a college debate tournament,

sudionike u sveučilišnom debatnom turniru,

the bottom 25% of teams in preliminary rounds

posljednjih 25% timova u kvalifikacijskom krugu

lost nearly four out of every five matches.

izgubilo je gotovo četiri od pet rundi.

But they thought they were winning almost 60%.

No, mislili su da su pobjeđivali gotovo 60%.

WIthout a strong grasp of the rules of debate,

Bez dobrog razumijevanja pravila debate,

the students simply couldn't recognize when or how often

studenti jednostavno nisu mogli prepoznati kada ili koliko često

their arguments broke down.

su njihovi argumenti bili pobijeni.

The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question of ego blinding us to our weaknesses.

Dunning-Krugerov efekt nije pitanje ega koje nas sprječava da vidimo naše slabosti.

People usually do admit their deficits once they can spot them.

Ljudi obično priznaju svoje nedostatke onda kad ih primijete.

In one study, students who had initially done badly on a logic quiz

U jednoj studiji, studenti koji su prvotno imali loše rezultate na logičkom testu,

and then took a mini course on logic

a onda su sudjelovali na mini-tečaju iz logike,

were quite willing to label their original performances as awful.

bili su poprilično spremni grozno ocijeniti svoje prve rezultate.

That may be why people with a moderate amount of experience or expertise

Možda zato ljudi s osrednjim iskustvom ili stručnošću

often have less confidence in their abilities.

često imaju manje vjere u svoje sposobnosti.

They know enough to know that there's a lot they don't know.

Imaju dovoljno pameti da znaju da postoji puno toga što ne znaju.

Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware of just how knowledgeable they are.

Isto tako, stručnjaci su svjesni točno koliko su stručni.

But they often make a different mistake:

No, često čine drugačiju grešku:

they assume that everyone else is knowledgeable, too.

pretpostavljaju da su i svi ostali također stručni.

The result is that people, whether they're inept or highly skilled,

Rezultat je da bez obzira koliko su ljudi nesposobni ili vješti,

are often caught in a bubble of inaccurate self-perception.

često se zateknu u vrtlogu netočnog samopoimanja.

When they're unskilled, they can't see their own faults.

Ako su nevješti, ne vide vlastite greške.

When they're exceptionally competent,

Ako su neobično kompetentni,

they don't perceive how unusual their abilities are.

ne doživljavaju svoje sposobnosti toliko nevjerojatnima.

So if the Dunning-Kruger effect is invisible to those experiencing it,

Pa, ako je Dunning-Krugerov efekt nevidljiv onima koji ga doživljavaju,

what can you do to find out how good you actually are at various things?

što možete učiniti da biste saznali koliko ste zapravo dobri u nekim stvarima?

First, ask for feedback from other people,

Prvo, tražite povratnu informaciju

and consider it, even if it's hard to hear.

i uzmite je u obzir, čak i ako vam ne paše.

Second, and more important, keep learning.

Drugo, još važnije, nastavite učiti.

The more knowledgeable we become,

Što smo obrazovaniji,

the less likely we are to have invisible holes in our competence.

manje je vjerojatno da ćemo imati nevidljive rupe u svojim sposobnostima.

Perhaps it all boils down to that old proverb:

Možda se sve svodi na onu staru poslovicu:

When arguing with a fool,

Kad se svađate s budalom,

first make sure the other person isn't doing the same thing.

prvo provjerite da i druga osoba ne čini to isto.