Why incompetent people think they're amazing - David Dunning

譯者: Sylvia He 審譯者: Coco Shen

Are you as good at things as you think you are?

你真的有自己想像的那麼棒嗎？

How good are you at managing money?

你的理財能力怎麼樣？

What about reading people's emotions?

解讀別人的情感的能力呢？

How healthy are you compared to other people you know?

你比你認識的人更健康嗎？

Are you better than average at grammar?

你的語法高於水平嗎？

Knowing how competent we are

清楚的知道自己能力

and how are skill stack up against other people's

和客觀的把自己 和別人的能力做比較，

is more than a self-esteem boost.

不止會增加一個人的自信，

It helps us figure out when we can forge ahead on our own decisions and instincts

它還會幫助我們相信自己的本能和判斷，

and when we need, instead, to seek out advice.

和需要的時候徵求別人的意見。

But psychological research suggests that we're not very good

但是心理學研究顯示， 我們很少

at evaluating ourselves accurately.

能夠正確地衡量自己的能力。

In fact, we frequently overestimate our own abilities.

事實上， 我們經常高估自己的能力。

Researchers have a name for this phenomena,

學術界稱此現象為

the Dunning-Kruger effect.

達克效應。

This effect explains why more than 100 studies

在超過 100 個研究中， 這個效應解釋了

have shown that people display illusory superiority.

人們普遍有虛幻的優越感。

We judge ourselves as better than others

我們高估自己的程度

to a degree that violates the laws of math.

甚至超越了數學的原理。

When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance,

有個研究讓兩個軟體公司裡的 程式設計師評估自己的能力，

32% of the engineers at one company and 42% at the other

兩個公司分別有 32% 和 42% 的程式設計師

put themselves in the top 5%.

覺得自己是頂尖的 5%。

In another study, 88% of American drivers

另一個研究顯示 88% 的美國人

described themselves as having above average driving skills.

認為自己的駕駛能力高於平均。

These aren't isolated findings.

這種數據不在少數。

On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most

一般來說， 人們會認為自己在

in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.

健康、領導能力、 倫理等等方面都優於平均。

What's particularly interesting is that those with the least ability

有意思的是，最沒有能力的人

are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent.

經常會最高估自己。

People measurably poor at logical reasoning,

在邏輯、

grammar,

語法、

financial knowledge,

金融知識、

math,

emotional intelligence,

數學、

情商、

running medical lab tests,

做醫學化驗，

and chess

和下棋方面能力低下的人，

all tend to rate their expertise almost as favorably as actual experts do.

都會認為自己堪比專家。

So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?

那誰最容易有這種幻覺呢？

Sadly, all of us because we all have pockets of incompetence

所有人。 因為人人都有自己不勝任

we don't recognize.

而又沒有意識到的方面。

But why?

為什麼呢？

When psychologists Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999,

當心理學家達寧和克魯格 在 1999 年提出達克效應時，

they argued that people lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas

他們認為人們在缺少 知識和技術的領域

suffer a double curse.

遭受一個雙重詛咒。

First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions.

第一，他們會有失誤和失策。

But second, those same knowledge gaps also prevent them from catching their errors.

第二，知識中的差距 讓他們無法發覺自己的錯誤。

In other words, poor performers lack the very expertise needed

也就是說， 表現越不佳的人就越不容易

to recognize how badly they're doing.

意識到自己表現不佳。

For example, when the researchers studied

比如，

一項針對大學辯論競賽者的研究發現，

participants in a college debate tournament,

the bottom 25% of teams in preliminary rounds

前幾輪的表現在倒數四分之一的群體

lost nearly four out of every five matches.

在之後的四五輪裡還是屢戰屢敗。

But they thought they were winning almost 60%.

但是他們以為自己的贏率接近六成，

WIthout a strong grasp of the rules of debate,

由於對辯論規則缺乏深入理解，

the students simply couldn't recognize when or how often

這些學生根本就沒有意識到

their arguments broke down.

他們的論點什麼時候瓦解， 和瓦解的頻率。

The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question of ego blinding us to our weaknesses.

達克效應不是弱點被自我蒙蔽的問題。

People usually do admit their deficits once they can spot them.

人們經常能夠承認已經辨識到的弱點。

In one study, students who had initially done badly on a logic quiz

一個研究顯示， 邏輯測驗做得不好的學生

and then took a mini course on logic

在上了一個小型邏輯課程後，

were quite willing to label their original performances as awful.

爽快地承認了自己原來的不足。

That may be why people with a moderate amount of experience or expertise

這有可能是水平一般的人

often have less confidence in their abilities.

通常信心不足的原因。

They know enough to know that there's a lot they don't know.

他們有足夠的知識明白自己的不足。

Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware of just how knowledgeable they are.

在另一方面， 專家們很清楚自己的水準，

But they often make a different mistake:

但他們經常會犯另一種錯誤：

they assume that everyone else is knowledgeable, too.

他們以為其他人也知道的很多。

The result is that people, whether they're inept or highly skilled,

結果，水平不高的人 和專家們都把自己

are often caught in a bubble of inaccurate self-perception.

圈在了不同的 錯誤自我認知的氣泡裡。

When they're unskilled, they can't see their own faults.

水平不高的人看不到自己的不足。

When they're exceptionally competent,

能力超高的人無法意識到

they don't perceive how unusual their abilities are.

自己的能力如何罕見。

So if the Dunning-Kruger effect is invisible to those experiencing it,

那麼在達克效應中，

what can you do to find out how good you actually are at various things?

人們應該怎樣對自己有正確的評估呢？

First, ask for feedback from other people,

第一，向其他人索要反饋，

and consider it, even if it's hard to hear.

即使忠言逆耳。

Second, and more important, keep learning.

第二，也是更重要的一點，不斷學習。

The more knowledgeable we become,

越多的知識能讓我們

the less likely we are to have invisible holes in our competence.

填補更多的不足。

Perhaps it all boils down to that old proverb:

就如一個諺語所說，

When arguing with a fool,

和一個蠢材吵架時，

first make sure the other person isn't doing the same thing.

先要確保自己不也是個蠢材。