How to green the world's deserts and reverse climate change | Allan Savory
5,898,102 views ・ 2013-03-04
请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni
Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Emma Zhao
校对人员: Wei Wu
00:16
The most massive
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这场最强大的
00:20
tsunami perfect storm
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完美海啸风暴
00:25
is bearing down upon us.
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正在击垮我们。
00:29
This perfect storm
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这场完美风暴
(指独立发生时没有危险性,但同时发生时
会带来灾难性后果的事件组合)
00:32
is mounting a grim reality, increasingly grim reality,
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正在加剧一个严峻的现实,日趋严峻的现实,
00:37
and we are facing that reality
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我们满怀着一种信念
00:42
with the full belief
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来面对这个现实
00:43
that we can solve our problems with technology,
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就是我们能够用技术来解决这些问题,
00:46
and that's very understandable.
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这是非常可以理解的。
00:48
Now, this perfect storm that we are facing
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现在,我们面临的完美风暴
00:52
is the result of our rising population,
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是我们人口增长的结果,
00:56
rising towards 10 billion people,
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增长到100亿的人,
00:59
land that is turning to desert,
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土地在变成沙漠,
01:01
and, of course, climate change.
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当然,气候变化了。
01:05
Now there's no question about it at all:
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对这些,毫无疑问:
01:07
we will only solve the problem
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我们只会用技术来取代化石燃料
01:09
of replacing fossil fuels with technology.
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来解决问题。
01:12
But fossil fuels, carbon -- coal and gas --
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化石燃料,碳元素——煤和天然气——
01:16
are by no means the only thing
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绝不是唯一
01:18
that is causing climate change.
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导致气候变化的东西。
01:22
Desertification
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荒漠化,一个华丽大词
01:24
is a fancy word for land that is turning to desert,
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是来描述正在变成荒漠的土地,
01:29
and this happens only when
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这种情形的产生是因为
01:31
we create too much bare ground.
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我们制造了太多的荒地。
01:33
There's no other cause.
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没有别的原因。
01:35
And I intend to focus
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我打算把重点放在
01:37
on most of the world's land that is turning to desert.
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世界上大部分正在变成沙漠的土地。
01:42
But I have for you a very simple message
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我有一个非常简单的信息给你们
01:48
that offers more hope than you can imagine.
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它提供了比你们想象的更多的希望。
01:52
We have environments
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我们有些环境
01:54
where humidity is guaranteed throughout the year.
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那儿的湿度全年有保证。
01:57
On those, it is almost impossible
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这些地方,几乎不可能
02:00
to create vast areas of bare ground.
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形成大面积的裸露的地面。
02:02
No matter what you do, nature covers it up so quickly.
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不管你做什么,大自然会很快盖住这些土地。
02:06
And we have environments
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我们有些环境
02:08
where we have months of humidity
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那里有几个月有雨水
02:10
followed by months of dryness,
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接着有几个月的干旱期,
02:12
and that is where desertification is occurring.
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在这里就在发生荒漠化。
02:16
Fortunately, with space technology now,
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幸运的是,借助航天技术的发展,
02:18
we can look at it from space,
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我们能从太空看到地球全貌,
02:19
and when we do, you can see the proportions fairly well.
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你们能很清楚的看到不同地貌的比例。
02:24
Generally, what you see in green
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总体上,你们看到的绿色
02:25
is not desertifying,
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是不会荒漠化的,
02:27
and what you see in brown is,
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而你们看到的棕色区域会荒漠化,
02:29
and these are by far the greatest areas of the Earth.
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这些区域目前是地球上最大的区域。
02:34
About two thirds, I would guess, of the world is desertifying.
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我猜想,世界有三分之二在荒漠化。
02:39
I took this picture in the Tihamah Desert
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这张照片是我在提哈迈沙漠拍的
02:42
while 25 millimeters -- that's an inch of rain -- was falling.
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下着25毫米(一英寸)的雨。
02:45
Think of it in terms of drums of water,
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把它想成是装在桶里,
02:48
each containing 200 liters.
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每桶装200升。
02:51
Over 1,000 drums of water fell on every hectare
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那天每公顷的土地上
02:55
of that land that day.
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下了1000桶水。
02:58
The next day, the land looked like this.
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第二天,土地是这个样子。
03:01
Where had that water gone?
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那些水去哪里了?
03:03
Some of it ran off as flooding,
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一部分流走了,
03:06
but most of the water that soaked into the soil
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大部分水渗进了土壤
03:09
simply evaporated out again,
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又蒸发掉了,
03:11
exactly as it does in your garden
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这跟你的花园里发生的过程一样,
03:13
if you leave the soil uncovered.
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裸露的地方很快就会变干。
03:16
Now, because the fate of water and carbon
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现在,因为水和碳元素
03:20
are tied to soil organic matter,
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都是被保存在土壤有机质中的,
03:23
when we damage soils, you give off carbon.
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当我们破坏了土壤,我们就释放出了碳元素
(以二氧化碳 CO2 或甲烷 CH4 的形式)。
03:27
Carbon goes back to the atmosphere.
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碳元素回到大气层。
03:30
Now you're told over and over, repeatedly,
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这些话你们现在已经听了很多遍,
03:34
that desertification is only occurring
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荒漠化只出现在
03:37
in arid and semi-arid areas of the world,
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世界的干旱和半干旱地区,
03:41
and that tall grasslands like this one
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像这样的高原
03:45
in high rainfall are of no consequence.
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降雨量再高也没有结果。
03:48
But if you do not look at grasslands but look down into them,
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但如果你不是远远的看,而是看草地的土壤表面,
03:53
you find that most of the soil in that grassland
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你会发现草地里大部分的土壤表面
03:56
that you've just seen is bare and covered with a crust of algae,
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都是光秃秃的,只有很少的藻类覆盖在上面,
04:00
leading to increased runoff and evaporation.
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这导致了水分的流失和蒸发。
04:03
That is the cancer of desertification
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这是导致荒漠化的致命原因
04:07
that we do not recognize till its terminal form.
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而我们直到荒漠化的末期才会察觉。
04:12
Now we know that desertification is caused by livestock,
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现在我们知道沙漠化是由家畜
04:17
mostly cattle, sheep and goats,
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多数是牛、绵羊和山羊等
04:20
overgrazing the plants,
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过度放牧,吃光了植被,
04:23
leaving the soil bare and giving off methane.
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使得土壤表面裸露出来并释放甲烷。
04:27
Almost everybody knows this,
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几乎人人都知道这点,
04:29
from nobel laureates to golf caddies,
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从诺贝尔奖获得者到高尔夫球童,
04:32
or was taught it, as I was.
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都和我一样都这么教育过。
04:34
Now, the environments like you see here,
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你们看到的这些环境,
04:38
dusty environments in Africa where I grew up,
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尘土飞扬的非洲,是我成长的地方。
04:41
and I loved wildlife,
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我喜欢野生动物,
04:44
and so I grew up hating livestock
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我从小不喜欢牲畜
04:47
because of the damage they were doing.
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因为家畜造成了生态破坏。
04:49
And then my university education as an ecologist
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我在大学读生态学的经历
04:52
reinforced my beliefs.
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也增强了我的信念。
04:55
Well, I have news for you.
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现在,我要告诉你们一些新的东西。
05:01
We were once just as certain
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我们曾相信
05:04
that the world was flat.
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世界是平坦的。
05:06
We were wrong then, and we are wrong again.
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我们那时错了,现在又错了。
05:10
And I want to invite you now
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我想邀请你们
05:12
to come along on my journey of reeducation and discovery.
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来加入我的再教育和探索之旅。
05:19
When I was a young man,
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我年轻的时候,
05:21
a young biologist in Africa,
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是非洲的一个年轻生物学家,
05:24
I was involved in setting aside marvelous areas
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我参与了一个项目,为国家公园规划
05:29
as future national parks.
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未来的野生区域。
05:31
Now no sooner — this was in the 1950s —
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不久后——这是1950年
05:35
and no sooner did we remove the hunting,
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我们刚取消打猎,
05:38
drum-beating people to protect the animals,
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鼓动人们保护动物,
05:41
than the land began to deteriorate,
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接着土地开始恶化,
05:43
as you see in this park that we formed.
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这是我们建立的公园。
05:47
Now, no livestock were involved,
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这里并没有牲畜(破坏植被),
05:50
but suspecting that we had too many elephants now,
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于是我们怀疑是大象的数量太多了,
05:53
I did the research and I proved we had too many,
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我做过调查,并得出了大象数量过多的结论,
05:58
and I recommended that we would have to reduce their numbers
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我建议应该减少它们的数量
06:01
and bring them down to a level that the land could sustain.
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把数量降到土地能承受的水平。
06:05
Now, that was a terrible decision for me to have to make,
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对我来说,我不得不承认这个可怕的结论,
06:09
and it was political dynamite, frankly.
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而坦率地说,这是个政治炸弹。
06:12
So our government formed a team of experts
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所以政府组了一个专家团
06:15
to evaluate my research.
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来评估我的调查结果。
06:18
They did. They agreed with me,
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他们评估之后,也同意我的观点,
06:20
and over the following years,
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在接下来的那些年,
06:22
we shot 40,000 elephants to try to stop the damage.
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我们射杀了4万头大象来停止土地退化。
06:28
And it got worse, not better.
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情形变得更坏了,而不是更好。
06:32
Loving elephants as I do,
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我很喜欢大象的,
06:34
that was the saddest and greatest blunder of my life,
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这是我人生中最悲哀的、最大的错误,
06:38
and I will carry that to my grave.
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我会带进坟墓。
06:40
One good thing did come out of it.
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也有一件好事。
06:43
It made me absolutely determined
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它使我下定决心
06:46
to devote my life to finding solutions.
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奉献我的一生去寻找解决方案。
06:52
When I came to the United States, I got a shock,
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我来到美国,我大吃一惊,
06:56
to find national parks like this one
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发现美国国家公园竟然是这个样子
06:58
desertifying as badly as anything in Africa.
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荒漠化的程度跟非洲一样糟糕。
07:02
And there'd been no livestock on this land
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在这片土地上已经70多年
07:04
for over 70 years.
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没有牲畜的。
07:07
And I found that American scientists
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我发现美国科学家
07:09
had no explanation for this
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对此的解释没有什么特别
07:12
except that it is arid and natural.
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认为无非是干旱和自然条件导致。
07:15
So I then began looking
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于是我开始收集和分析
07:18
at all the research plots I could
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我能找到的整个美国西部
07:22
over the whole of the Western United States
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所有的(野外)研究站的数据
07:24
where cattle had been removed
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那些地方的牛群都被移走了
07:27
to prove that it would stop desertification,
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来证明这样会停止荒漠化,
07:29
but I found the opposite,
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可是我发现的却相反,
07:31
as we see on this research station,
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看这个研究站,
07:34
where this grassland that was green in 1961,
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在1961年这片草地是绿的,
07:38
by 2002 had changed to that situation.
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到2002年变成这种状况。
07:43
And the authors of the position paper on climate change
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这些图片来自于研究气候变化的研究人员的论文
07:48
from which I obtained these pictures
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他们在观点论文中
07:50
attribute this change to "unknown processes."
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这种变化归因为“未知进程”。
07:56
Clearly, we have never understood
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显然,我们从未明白
08:00
what is causing desertification,
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什么导致了荒漠化,
08:03
which has destroyed many civilizations
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这种荒漠化已经毁掉了很多的文明社会
08:06
and now threatens us globally.
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而现在对我们的威胁是全球性的。
08:08
We have never understood it.
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我们从来都没有搞清楚过。
08:11
Take one square meter of soil
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像这样一平方米的土壤表面
08:13
and make it bare like this is down here,
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像下面这样程度的裸露着,
08:16
and I promise you, you will find it much colder at dawn
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我敢说,它会比被植被覆盖的地方,
08:19
and much hotter at midday
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同样的大的地方,
08:22
than that same piece of ground if it's just covered with litter,
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黎明的时候会冷得多,
08:25
plant litter.
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中午时会热得多。
08:27
You have changed the microclimate.
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你已经改变了这个地方的微气候。
08:30
Now, by the time you are doing that
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现在,就像你刚才做的那样
08:32
and increasing greatly the percentage of bare ground
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如果世界上裸露的土地的面积快速的增长到
08:38
on more than half the world's land,
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超过了世界土地一半以上的面积,
08:42
you are changing macroclimate.
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大气候就被我们改变了。
08:45
But we have just simply not understood
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但是我们还是无法理解
08:47
why was it beginning to happen 10,000 years ago?
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为什么这个过程一万年前就开始了?
08:51
Why has it accelerated lately?
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又为什么最近加快了?
08:54
We had no understanding of that.
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我们对此无法理解。
08:56
What we had failed to understand
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我们过去不了解的是
08:59
was that these seasonal humidity environments of the world,
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世界上这些季节性雨水充沛的环境中
09:03
the soil and the vegetation
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伴随着植被的蓬勃生长
09:06
developed with very large numbers of grazing animals,
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数量可观的游牧食草动物也随之而来,
09:12
and that these grazing animals
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而这些游牧的动物
09:15
developed with ferocious pack-hunting predators.
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又引来了凶猛的猎食者。
09:20
Now, the main defense against pack-hunting predators
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游牧动物防御捕食者的主要方法
09:24
is to get into herds,
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是群居生活,
09:26
and the larger the herd, the safer the individuals.
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兽群越大,个体就越安全。
09:30
Now, large herds dung and urinate all over their own food,
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大量的兽群在自己的食物上大小便,
09:35
and they have to keep moving,
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而它们又必须不断的迁移,
09:38
and it was that movement
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这些迁移过程
09:40
that prevented the overgrazing of plants,
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防止了过渡放牧的现象,
09:43
while the periodic trampling
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同时定期的踩踏土壤
09:45
ensured good cover of the soil,
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正如这群动物路过时发生的那样
09:48
as we see where a herd has passed.
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确保了土壤表面得到了很好的覆盖。
09:51
This picture is a typical seasonal grassland.
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这张图是典型的季节性草原。
09:57
It has just come through four months of rain,
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刚刚经历了4个月的雨季,
10:00
and it's now going into eight months of dry season.
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将要进入8个月的旱季。
10:03
And watch the change as it goes into this long dry season.
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注意看草原进入漫长的旱季后的变化。
10:07
Now, all of that grass you see aboveground
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你们看到的所有地表上的草
10:10
has to decay biologically
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在下个生长季节到来之前
10:14
before the next growing season, and if it doesn't,
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都会腐烂掉,否则的话,
10:17
the grassland and the soil begin to die.
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草地和土壤就会开始死亡。
10:21
Now, if it does not decay biologically,
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如果它不是生物性的腐烂,
10:25
it shifts to oxidation, which is a very slow process,
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而是以氧化的形式腐烂,这是一个非常缓慢的过程,
10:30
and this smothers and kills grasses,
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并且会消耗氧气,杀死草本植物,
10:33
leading to a shift to woody vegetation
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只有木本的植物才能生存,导致了
10:36
and bare soil, releasing carbon.
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地表被裸露,碳元素释放到大气层。
10:39
To prevent that, we have traditionally used fire.
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为了防止这种情况,传统上我们是用火烧。
10:44
But fire also leaves the soil bare, releasing carbon,
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可是火也会让地表被裸露,碳元素释放到大气层,
10:50
and worse than that,
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更糟糕的是,
10:53
burning one hectare of grassland
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烧掉一公顷的草地
10:55
gives off more, and more damaging, pollutants
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所释放的有害污染物,要比6000辆汽车
10:58
than 6,000 cars.
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排放的总和还要多。
11:01
And we are burning in Africa, every single year,
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每年在非洲我们都会烧掉
11:06
more than one billion hectares of grasslands,
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十亿公顷以上的草地,
11:10
and almost nobody is talking about it.
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几乎没人关心过这个。
11:14
We justify the burning, as scientists,
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作为科学家,我们理解
11:18
because it does remove the dead material
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烧草可以除掉死植物
11:21
and it allows the plants to grow.
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允许植物成长。
11:25
Now, looking at this grassland of ours that has gone dry,
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看看这片草地已经枯干,
11:28
what could we do to keep that healthy?
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我们做什么才能保持健康?
11:30
And bear in mind, I'm talking of most of the world's land now.
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记住,我讲的是世界上大部分的土地。
11:33
Okay? We cannot reduce animal numbers to rest it more
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明白么?我们不能用减少动物数量的方式让植被休养
11:38
without causing desertification and climate change.
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因为这会引发土地荒漠化和气候变化。
11:42
We cannot burn it without causing
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我们不能用焚烧的方法
11:45
desertification and climate change.
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这也会引发荒漠化和气候变化。
11:47
What are we going to do?
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那我们能怎么办?
11:53
There is only one option,
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只有一种方案,
11:56
I'll repeat to you, only one option
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我再重复一遍,唯一的一种方法
11:58
left to climatologists and scientists,
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摆在气候学家和科学家的面前,
12:01
and that is to do the unthinkable,
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这个方案非常的不可思议,
12:04
and to use livestock,
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就是使用牲畜,
12:07
bunched and moving,
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成群结队地迁移,
12:10
as a proxy for former herds and predators,
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把它们看作从前的游牧动物和捕食动物,
12:13
and mimic nature.
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模拟大自然的行为。
12:15
There is no other alternative left to mankind.
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这种方法是人类唯一的选择了。
12:19
So let's do that.
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那就做吧。
12:22
So on this bit of grassland, we'll do it, but just in the foreground.
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我们将在这块小草地上实验这种方式。这只是一开始的样子。
12:25
We'll impact it very heavily with cattle to mimic nature,
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我们将会在上面用大量的家畜来模拟大自然的行为,
12:28
and we've done so, and look at that.
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现在来看下模拟之后草地的样子。
12:31
All of that grass is now covering the soil
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现在土壤已经被野草完全的覆盖,
12:35
as dung, urine and litter or mulch,
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上面还有家畜的粪便、尿液、以及其它的覆盖物,
12:39
as every one of the gardeners amongst you would understand,
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在座的观众如果做过园艺就会明白
12:42
and that soil is ready to absorb and hold the rain,
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这样的土壤已经可以吸收并保存雨水,
12:46
to store carbon, and to break down methane.
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可以保留住碳元素,并能够分解甲烷。
12:51
And we did that,
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我们做到了这一点,
12:53
without using fire to damage the soil,
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在没有用火去破坏土壤的前提下,
12:56
and the plants are free to grow.
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植被也可以自由生长。
12:59
When I first realized
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当我第一次意识到
13:02
that we had no option as scientists
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我们作为科学家没有别的选择
13:04
but to use much-vilified livestock
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只有用破坏性强的牲畜
13:07
to address climate change and desertification,
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来应对气候变化和荒漠化,
13:12
I was faced with a real dilemma.
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我面临着真正的困境。
13:14
How were we to do it?
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我们应该怎么去实现这个目标?
13:16
We'd had 10,000 years of extremely knowledgeable pastoralists
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牧民们已经积累了一万年丰富的畜牧经验,
13:21
bunching and moving their animals,
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知道如何群养和迁徙他们的动物,
13:23
but they had created the great manmade deserts of the world.
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但是,他们创造了世界上最大的人造沙漠。
13:26
Then we'd had 100 years of modern rain science,
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现代的降雨研究也持续了一百年以上,
13:30
and that had accelerated desertification,
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而这些研究反而加快了荒漠化,
13:33
as we first discovered in Africa
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正如我在非洲首先发现
13:36
and then confirmed in the United States,
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在美国得到证实的那样,
13:38
and as you see in this picture
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你们现在看到的图片
13:40
of land managed by the federal government.
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是联邦政府管理的土地。
13:44
Clearly more was needed
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这些土地需要的
13:46
than bunching and moving the animals,
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显然比起群牧和迁徙更多,
13:48
and humans, over thousands of years,
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几千年来,我们人类
13:51
had never been able to deal with nature's complexity.
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始终无法完全理解大自然的复杂性。
13:56
But we biologists and ecologists
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而我们的生物学家和生态学家
13:58
had never tackled anything as complex as this.
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从来没有尝试解决过这么复杂的事。
14:01
So rather than reinvent the wheel,
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我没有尝试重新发明车轮,
14:04
I began studying other professions to see if anybody had.
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而是转向别的科学领域,看看是否有成果可以借鉴。
14:08
And I found there were planning techniques
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我找到了任务规划方面的一些技术,
14:10
that I could take and adapt to our biological need,
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能够满足我们生物学领域的需求,
14:14
and from those I developed what we call
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在将这些技术引入生物学的过程中
14:17
holistic management and planned grazing,
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我们开发了一种称为“整体管理和计划放牧”方法,
14:20
a planning process,
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是一个规划过程,
14:22
and that does address all of nature's complexity
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这个方法设法了解并解决自然的复杂性
14:26
and our social, environmental, economic complexity.
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和我们社会的、环境的、经济的复杂性。
14:31
Today, we have young women like this one
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今天,我们有像这样的年轻女性
14:33
teaching villages in Africa
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在非洲的村庄里传授技术
14:36
how to put their animals together into larger herds,
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如何把他们的动物集合成一大群,
14:39
plan their grazing to mimic nature,
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如何安排计划达到模拟大自然的效果
14:41
and where we have them hold their animals overnight --
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在哪里让他们的动物过夜--
14:46
we run them in a predator-friendly manner,
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我们用一种对捕食者友好的方法
14:48
because we have a lot of lands, and so on --
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因为我们有很多土地,
14:50
and where they do this and hold them overnight
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它们在哪里模拟大自然,在哪里过夜,
14:52
to prepare the crop fields,
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我们就在哪里准备庄稼地,
14:54
we are getting very great increases in crop yield as well.
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我们的庄稼收成也会很好。
14:58
Let's look at some results.
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看看这些结果。
15:00
This is land close to land that we manage in Zimbabwe.
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这块地靠近我们在津巴布韦的土地。
15:04
It has just come through four months of very good rains
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刚刚过了四个月的雨水充沛的季节
15:07
it got that year, and it's going into the long dry season.
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即将进入漫长的旱季。
15:11
But as you can see, all of that rain, almost of all it,
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可是你们也会看到,几乎所有的雨水,
15:14
has evaporated from the soil surface.
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从土壤表面蒸发掉了。
15:17
Their river is dry despite the rain just having ended,
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尽管雨停了,河还是干的,
15:21
and we have 150,000 people
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我们有15万人口
15:24
on almost permanent food aid.
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几乎长期依靠食物援助。
15:28
Now let's go to our land nearby on the same day,
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看看同一天我们的土地,
15:33
with the same rainfall, and look at that.
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同样的雨量,看吧。
15:36
Our river is flowing and healthy and clean.
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我们的河水流淌,健康而干净。
15:38
It's fine.
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很好的。
15:41
The production of grass, shrubs, trees, wildlife,
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草、 灌木、 树木、 野生动物等的
15:46
everything is now more productive,
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一切都很高产,
15:49
and we have virtually no fear of dry years.
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我们一点都不怕干旱年头。
15:53
And we did that by increasing the cattle and goats
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这样做是通过增加了400%的
15:59
400 percent,
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牛和羊,
16:00
planning the grazing to mimic nature
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有计划的放牧,模拟大自然的过程
16:04
and integrate them with all the elephants, buffalo,
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跟大象,水牛,长颈鹿
16:06
giraffe and other animals that we have.
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以及其它的动物融合一体。
16:10
But before we began, our land looked like that.
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但在我们开始前,我们的土地是这个样子。
16:15
This site was bare and eroding for over 30 years
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这块地裸露和侵蚀了30多年
16:21
regardless of what rain we got.
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不管下多少雨。
16:23
Okay? Watch the marked tree and see the change
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看看这棵做了标记的树,
16:27
as we use livestock to mimic nature.
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看看我们用牲畜去模仿自然后的变化。
16:31
This was another site
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这是另一块地
16:32
where it had been bare and eroding,
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这里也曾裸露和侵蚀,
16:35
and at the base of the marked small tree,
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在这棵做了标记的小树底下,
16:37
we had lost over 30 centimeters of soil. Okay?
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我们流失了30厘米的土壤。对吧?
16:42
And again, watch the change
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再看一下这个变化
16:43
just using livestock to mimic nature.
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只是使用牲畜去模仿自然。
16:46
And there are fallen trees in there now,
305
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这里有些倒下的树,
16:48
because the better land is now attracting elephants, etc.
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因为土地变好更吸引大象。
16:53
This land in Mexico was in terrible condition,
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在墨西哥的这块土地情形很糟,
16:57
and I've had to mark the hill
308
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我在这个小山上做了标记
16:59
because the change is so profound.
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因为变化太大了。
17:03
(Applause)
310
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(掌声)
17:10
I began helping a family in the Karoo Desert in the 1970s
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20世纪70年代我开始帮助一个在卡鲁沙漠的家庭
17:15
turn the desert that you see on the right there
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你们看到在右边
17:18
back to grassland,
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沙漠变回了草地,
17:20
and thankfully, now their grandchildren are on the land
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值得庆幸的是,现在他们的子孙在这片土地上
17:24
with hope for the future.
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对未来充满希望。
17:26
And look at the amazing change in this one,
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看看这个喜人的变化,
17:28
where that gully has completely healed
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2712
那里的沟壑已完全愈合
17:31
using nothing but livestock mimicking nature,
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只是用了牧群模仿大自然的过程,
17:36
and once more, we have the third generation of that family
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更可喜的是,第三代人生活在那里
17:40
on that land with their flag still flying.
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他们的旗帜依旧飞扬。
17:43
The vast grasslands of Patagonia
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巴塔哥尼亚这片辽阔的草原
17:46
are turning to desert as you see here.
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正在变成沙漠。
17:48
The man in the middle is an Argentinian researcher,
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3060
在中间的那个人是一位阿根廷研究员,
17:51
and he has documented the steady decline of that land
324
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3644
他已经记录了这片土地的持续衰落
17:55
over the years as they kept reducing sheep numbers.
325
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多年来羊群数目持续减少。
17:58
They put 25,000 sheep in one flock,
326
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4848
他们把2万5千只羊作为一群,
18:03
really mimicking nature now with planned grazing,
327
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3949
真正模仿大自然的过程并有规划的放牧,
18:07
and they have documented a 50-percent increase
328
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4343
他们的记录显示,第一年土地的产量
18:11
in the production of the land in the first year.
329
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有50%的增长。
18:15
We now have in the violent Horn of Africa
330
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3040
现在在冲突不断的非洲之角(非洲大陆最东的地区)
18:18
pastoralists planning their grazing to mimic nature
331
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3456
牧民们通过规牧群游牧活动模仿大自然
18:21
and openly saying it is the only hope they have
332
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并公开的表示这是他们唯一的希望
18:25
of saving their families and saving their culture.
333
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来哺育他们的家人,挽救他们的文化。
18:28
Ninety-five percent of that land
334
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这块地的95%的人
18:30
can only feed people from animals.
335
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3660
依靠动物为生。
18:34
I remind you that I am talking about
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我要提醒大家,世界上大部分的土地
18:36
most of the world's land here that controls our fate,
337
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4441
都是如此,它们掌握着人类的命运,
18:40
including the most violent region of the world,
338
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3056
包括世界最暴力的地区,
18:43
where only animals can feed people
339
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2952
这些土地上有95%的人
18:46
from about 95 percent of the land.
340
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3304
以动物作为唯一的食物来源。
18:49
What we are doing globally is causing climate change
341
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5134
这种全球范围的人类行为导致了气候变化,
18:55
as much as, I believe, fossil fuels,
342
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3296
我相信这种原因的重要性至少和化石燃料一样,
18:58
and maybe more than fossil fuels.
343
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可能比化石燃料还多。
19:01
But worse than that, it is causing hunger, poverty,
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3675
更糟的是,它引起饥饿,贫困
19:05
violence, social breakdown and war,
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暴力,社会崩溃和战争,
19:08
and as I am talking to you,
346
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正如我刚才告诉你们的,
19:11
millions of men, women and children
347
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数以百万计的男人,女人和孩子
19:14
are suffering and dying.
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正在遭受痛苦和死亡。
19:16
And if this continues,
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如果这种情况持续下去,
19:19
we are unlikely to be able to stop the climate changing,
350
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3794
即使我们停止使用了化石燃料
19:23
even after we have eliminated the use of fossil fuels.
351
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5047
我们可能也无法阻止气候的改变了。
19:28
I believe I've shown you how we can work with nature
352
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4236
我相信我已经向你们展示了我们如何与大自然共处
19:32
at very low cost
353
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2456
用很低的成本
19:34
to reverse all this.
354
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2496
来扭转这一切。
19:37
We are already doing so
355
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2432
我们正在全球五大洲
19:39
on about 15 million hectares
356
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3996
大约1500万公顷的土地上
19:43
on five continents,
357
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2632
实施这一计划,
19:46
and people who understand
358
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1627
为了说明这个计划的效果
19:47
far more about carbon than I do
359
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2290
一些远远比我更了解碳元素的人
19:50
calculate that, for illustrative purposes,
360
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3058
计算得到了一些结论,
19:53
if we do what I am showing you here,
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如果我们按照这样去做,
19:56
we can take enough carbon out of the atmosphere
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我们就能减少大气层中足够多的碳(CO2)
20:00
and safely store it in the grassland soils
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将它们安全的储存于草地土壤中
20:03
for thousands of years,
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达千年之久,
20:05
and if we just do that on about half the world's grasslands
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如果全球一半的草地都实施
20:10
that I've shown you,
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我刚才说的方法,
20:11
we can take us back to pre-industrial levels,
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我们就能(把CO2)控制到工业化之前的水平,
20:15
while feeding people.
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并能养活全球的人口。
20:16
I can think of almost nothing
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我几乎想不出任何事
20:19
that offers more hope for our planet,
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能给我们的地球,你们的孩子
20:23
for your children,
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和孩子们的孩子,以及整个人类
20:25
and their children, and all of humanity.
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提供更大的希望,
20:28
Thank you.
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谢谢!
20:31
(Applause)
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(掌声)
20:39
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢!(掌声)
20:52
Thank you, Chris.
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(掌声), Chris.
20:54
Chris Anderson: Thank you. I have,
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Chris Anderson(CA):谢谢!
20:57
and I'm sure everyone here has,
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我相信这里的每个人,包括我在内
20:59
A) a hundred questions, B) wants to hug you.
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都有好多问题想问,并且想要拥抱你一下。
21:03
I'm just going to ask you one quick question.
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我只问个简单问题。
21:05
When you first start this and you bring in a flock of animals,
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当你开始这个实验的时候,把一大群动物引进来,
21:09
it's desert. What do they eat? How does that part work?
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但这是沙漠,他们吃什么?这个问题怎么解决的?
21:12
How do you start?
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你如何开始?
21:13
Allan Savory: Well, we have done this for a long time,
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Allan Savory(AS): 我们已经做了很长时间,
21:15
and the only time we have ever had to provide any feed
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只有一次我们必须提供吃的
21:18
is during mine reclamation,
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是矿山复垦期间,
21:20
where it's 100 percent bare.
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那里是百分之百的没有任何植被。
21:22
But many years ago, we took the worst land in Zimbabwe,
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很多年前,我们得到一块津巴布韦最差的土地,
21:27
where I offered a £5 note
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当时我出5英镑打赌
21:30
in a hundred-mile drive
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没人能在一百英里的
21:32
if somebody could find one grass
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驾程范围内找到一根草
21:34
in a hundred-mile drive,
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在一百英里的驾程范围,
21:36
and on that, we trebled the stocking rate,
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我们把动物的数量增加了三倍,
21:39
the number of animals, in the first year with no feeding,
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第一年没有提供食物,
21:42
just by the movement, mimicking nature,
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只靠迁徙,模仿自然,
21:45
and using a sigmoid curve, that principle.
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使用(统计学上的)S型曲线的原理。
21:50
It's a little bit technical to explain here, but just that.
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要解释清楚就要一些技术基础,总之就是这个样子。
21:52
CA: Well, I would love to -- I mean, this such an interesting and important idea.
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CA: 这是个有趣和重要的想法。
21:56
The best people on our blog are going to come and talk to you
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接下来我们最好博客记者会继续采访你
21:58
and try and -- I want to get more on this
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我想知道更多一点
22:01
that we could share along with the talk.AS: Wonderful.
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CA: 我们可以一起分享。
AS:太好了。
22:04
CA: That is an astonishing talk, truly an astonishing talk,
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CA: 这真是一个令人吃惊的演讲,真的令人吃惊,
22:07
and I think you heard that we all are cheering you on your way.
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你听到了我们的喝彩。
22:10
Thank you so much.AS: Well, thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Chris.
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CA: 非常感谢。
AS: 谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,Chris!
22:13
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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