请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
00:00
Translator: Thu-Huong Ha
Reviewer: Morton Bast
0
0
7000
翻译人员: Yuguo Zhang
校对人员: kejun chen
00:15
In Oxford in the 1950s,
1
15684
1862
在20世纪50年代的牛津
00:17
there was a fantastic doctor, who was very unusual,
2
17546
3768
有一位很优秀,不寻常的医生
00:21
named Alice Stewart.
3
21314
2032
她叫Alice Stewart
00:23
And Alice was unusual partly because, of course,
4
23346
3143
Alice很不寻常,因为她是个女的医生
00:26
she was a woman, which was pretty rare in the 1950s.
5
26489
3480
这对于在20世纪50年代很罕见了
00:29
And she was brilliant, she was one of the,
6
29969
2111
她非常厉害,是当时最年轻的
00:32
at the time, the youngest Fellow to be elected to the Royal College of Physicians.
7
32080
4816
"皇家医师学院"最年轻的学员之一
00:36
She was unusual too because she continued to work after she got married,
8
36896
3757
她很不寻常还因为在她结婚生子后
00:40
after she had kids,
9
40653
2095
她还继续工作
00:42
and even after she got divorced and was a single parent,
10
42748
3008
甚至在她离婚成为单亲妈妈之后
00:45
she continued her medical work.
11
45756
2283
她继续着她的医学工作
00:48
And she was unusual because she was really interested in a new science,
12
48039
4120
她很不寻常还因为她对一门新的科学感兴趣
00:52
the emerging field of epidemiology,
13
52159
2624
当时新出现的流行病学
00:54
the study of patterns in disease.
14
54783
3488
对于疾病规律的研究
00:58
But like every scientist, she appreciated
15
58271
2168
但跟每个科学家一样,她知道为了让她
01:00
that to make her mark, what she needed to do
16
60439
2256
出众,她需要寻找到难题
01:02
was find a hard problem and solve it.
17
62695
4518
然后解决她
01:07
The hard problem that Alice chose
18
67213
2544
Alice当时选择的难题是
01:09
was the rising incidence of childhood cancers.
19
69757
3398
童年期癌症发生率的上升
01:13
Most disease is correlated with poverty,
20
73155
2190
大多数疾病都是跟贫穷有关的
01:15
but in the case of childhood cancers,
21
75345
2269
不过在童年期癌症的问题上,
01:17
the children who were dying seemed mostly to come
22
77614
2604
这些垂死的孩子似乎大多数
01:20
from affluent families.
23
80218
2445
都从富裕家庭中而来
01:22
So, what, she wanted to know,
24
82663
1743
因为她想知道,怎样才能
01:24
could explain this anomaly?
25
84406
3082
解释这样一种特殊现象呢?
01:27
Now, Alice had trouble getting funding for her research.
26
87488
2783
当时,Alice很难为她的研究筹备到资金
01:30
In the end, she got just 1,000 pounds
27
90271
1991
最后,她只得到了1000英镑,
01:32
from the Lady Tata Memorial prize.
28
92262
2255
从Lady Tata纪念奖得来的
01:34
And that meant she knew she only had one shot
29
94517
2543
这意味着她知道她对于收集数据
01:37
at collecting her data.
30
97060
2042
只有一次机会
01:39
Now, she had no idea what to look for.
31
99102
2477
她完全不知道应当寻找什么
01:41
This really was a needle in a haystack sort of search,
32
101579
3116
这对于需要大量数据的研究来说是一个沉重打击
01:44
so she asked everything she could think of.
33
104695
2622
因此她问了所有她能想到的东西
01:47
Had the children eaten boiled sweets?
34
107317
1833
这些孩子有没有吃煮沸的甜食?
01:49
Had they consumed colored drinks?
35
109150
2073
他们有没有喝花里胡哨的饮料?
01:51
Did they eat fish and chips?
36
111223
1647
他们是不是吃油炸鱼和薯片了?
01:52
Did they have indoor or outdoor plumbing?
37
112870
2008
他们是不是使用过户内或者户外的铅制品?
01:54
What time of life had they started school?
38
114878
3416
他们什么时候开始上学的?
01:58
And when her carbon copied questionnaire started to come back,
39
118294
3368
而当她的用碳做的调查问卷回来的时候,
02:01
one thing and one thing only jumped out
40
121662
2920
只有一个明显的数据
02:04
with the statistical clarity of a kind that
41
124582
2536
显示了出来,
02:07
most scientists can only dream of.
42
127118
2840
这是大多数科学家都无法想象的
02:09
By a rate of two to one,
43
129958
1920
三分之二的这些由于癌症而死的孩子
02:11
the children who had died
44
131878
2081
他们的母亲在怀孕的时候
02:13
had had mothers who had been X-rayed when pregnant.
45
133959
6295
都做过X光检查
02:20
Now that finding flew in the face of conventional wisdom.
46
140254
4505
这个发现对于传统观念是一大冲击
02:24
Conventional wisdom held
47
144759
1907
传统观念认为
02:26
that everything was safe up to a point, a threshold.
48
146666
3997
任何事情在一种程度上都是安全的,像一个门槛
02:30
It flew in the face of conventional wisdom,
49
150663
2327
这对于这一观念是很大的冲击
02:32
which was huge enthusiasm for the cool new technology
50
152990
3458
尤其是对于当时新科技,X光机器
02:36
of that age, which was the X-ray machine.
51
156448
3646
的巨大热情
02:40
And it flew in the face of doctors' idea of themselves,
52
160094
4224
而且对于医生对自己的看法也是巨大的冲击
02:44
which was as people who helped patients,
53
164318
3808
因为他们都是帮助病人的
02:48
they didn't harm them.
54
168126
2696
而不是害他们的
02:50
Nevertheless, Alice Stewart rushed to publish
55
170822
3688
不过呢,Alice Stewart还是很快的将她
02:54
her preliminary findings in The Lancet in 1956.
56
174510
3584
最初的发现在1956年的The Lancet杂志中发表了
02:58
People got very excited, there was talk of the Nobel Prize,
57
178094
4008
人们都很兴奋,有人还提到诺贝尔奖的可能
03:02
and Alice really was in a big hurry
58
182102
2120
Alice也很着急
03:04
to try to study all the cases of childhood cancer she could find
59
184222
3791
她想去学习她能找到所有的儿童癌症的资料
03:08
before they disappeared.
60
188013
2153
在他们消失之前
03:10
In fact, she need not have hurried.
61
190166
4344
事实上,她并不需要那么急
03:14
It was fully 25 years before the British and medical --
62
194510
4191
过了25年之后,英国的医学建树--
03:18
British and American medical establishments
63
198701
2872
英国和美国医学建树
03:21
abandoned the practice of X-raying pregnant women.
64
201573
6104
也禁止了给怀孕女人的X光测验
03:27
The data was out there, it was open, it was freely available,
65
207677
5481
数据都是开放的,很容易获得
03:33
but nobody wanted to know.
66
213158
4224
但是没人想知道这一点
03:37
A child a week was dying,
67
217382
2684
每周都有一个小孩在垂死挣扎
03:40
but nothing changed.
68
220066
2733
但就跟啥都没发生一样
03:42
Openness alone can't drive change.
69
222799
6255
开放性无法带来改变
03:49
So for 25 years Alice Stewart had a very big fight on her hands.
70
229054
5617
25年来Alice Stewart在做很大的斗争
03:54
So, how did she know that she was right?
71
234671
3247
所以说,她怎么知道她当时是对的?
03:57
Well, she had a fantastic model for thinking.
72
237918
3663
她有一个极佳的思考模型
04:01
She worked with a statistician named George Kneale,
73
241581
2245
她当时与一位名叫George Kneale的统计学家合作
04:03
and George was pretty much everything that Alice wasn't.
74
243826
2384
而George刚好与Alice正互补
04:06
So, Alice was very outgoing and sociable,
75
246210
3069
Alice非常外向和社交化
04:09
and George was a recluse.
76
249279
2458
而George是个隐居者
04:11
Alice was very warm, very empathetic with her patients.
77
251737
4014
Alice很热情,与她的病人有很多互动
04:15
George frankly preferred numbers to people.
78
255751
4039
而George相比之下更喜欢数字,而不是人们
04:19
But he said this fantastic thing about their working relationship.
79
259790
3978
不过他提到过他们工作关系的极大好处
04:23
He said, "My job is to prove Dr. Stewart wrong."
80
263768
6336
他说:"我的工作就是证明Stewart博士是错的."
04:30
He actively sought disconfirmation.
81
270104
3557
他积极地寻找错误的证明
04:33
Different ways of looking at her models,
82
273661
2337
以不同方式研究她的模型
04:35
at her statistics, different ways of crunching the data
83
275998
3257
她的数据,以及不同方式去利用数据
04:39
in order to disprove her.
84
279255
3063
来证明她是错的
04:42
He saw his job as creating conflict around her theories.
85
282318
5624
他把他自己的工作当作为Alice的理论创造矛盾
04:47
Because it was only by not being able to prove
86
287942
3096
因为只有他无法证明Alice是错的
04:51
that she was wrong,
87
291038
2368
时候,
04:53
that George could give Alice the confidence she needed
88
293406
3121
George就可以带来Alice所需要的自信
04:56
to know that she was right.
89
296527
2982
让她相信她是正确的
04:59
It's a fantastic model of collaboration --
90
299509
4675
这是完美的合作的模型
05:04
thinking partners who aren't echo chambers.
91
304184
5007
由伙伴之前相互补充
05:09
I wonder how many of us have,
92
309191
2352
我想知道有多少人
05:11
or dare to have, such collaborators.
93
311543
6919
有过,或者敢有过这样的合作者
05:18
Alice and George were very good at conflict.
94
318462
3777
Alice和George对于矛盾很擅长
05:22
They saw it as thinking.
95
322239
3136
他们认为这就是思考
05:25
So what does that kind of constructive conflict require?
96
325375
4273
那么这种建设性的矛盾要求什么呢?
05:29
Well, first of all, it requires that we find people
97
329648
3375
首先呢,它需要我们去找到
05:33
who are very different from ourselves.
98
333023
2648
十分不同的人们
05:35
That means we have to resist the neurobiological drive,
99
335671
4336
这意味着我们必须抗拒精神上的推动
05:40
which means that we really prefer people mostly like ourselves,
100
340007
4504
那就是我们更喜欢像我们的人们
05:44
and it means we have to seek out people
101
344511
2224
这意味着我们必须寻找有不同背景,
05:46
with different backgrounds, different disciplines,
102
346735
2472
不同训练,不同方法去思考以及不同经验
05:49
different ways of thinking and different experience,
103
349207
4151
的人们,
05:53
and find ways to engage with them.
104
353358
3865
而且还要去想办法与他们交流
05:57
That requires a lot of patience and a lot of energy.
105
357223
4644
这需要很多热情和能量
06:01
And the more I've thought about this,
106
361867
1811
我想这一点想的越多,
06:03
the more I think, really, that that's a kind of love.
107
363678
5161
真的,我觉得这是一种爱
06:08
Because you simply won't commit that kind of energy
108
368839
3069
因为如果你不在乎的话,
06:11
and time if you don't really care.
109
371908
4691
你不可能付出那么多能量的
06:16
And it also means that we have to be prepared to change our minds.
110
376599
4460
这还意味着我们必须准备好去改变我们的想法
06:21
Alice's daughter told me
111
381059
2364
Alice的女儿告诉我
06:23
that every time Alice went head-to-head with a fellow scientist,
112
383423
3112
每次Alice去和一个同事科学家会面,
06:26
they made her think and think and think again.
113
386535
4184
他们都让她一遍一遍的思考.
06:30
"My mother," she said, "My mother didn't enjoy a fight,
114
390719
4018
"我的母亲",她说,"我的母亲不喜欢争吵,
06:34
but she was really good at them."
115
394737
5142
但是她却很擅长."
06:39
So it's one thing to do that in a one-to-one relationship.
116
399879
4170
因此这在一对一的关系中是一个方面
06:44
But it strikes me that the biggest problems we face,
117
404049
3287
但这使我想到那些我们面对过的最大难题
06:47
many of the biggest disasters that we've experienced,
118
407336
2874
经历过的最严重的灾难,
06:50
mostly haven't come from individuals,
119
410210
1951
大多都不是由个人引起的
06:52
they've come from organizations,
120
412161
1888
而是从组织而来的
06:54
some of them bigger than countries,
121
414049
2008
有些比国家还大
06:56
many of them capable of affecting hundreds,
122
416057
2260
大多数都有影响上百人的能力
06:58
thousands, even millions of lives.
123
418317
4003
甚至上千人,上百万人
07:02
So how do organizations think?
124
422320
4438
那么这些组织是怎么想的呢?
07:06
Well, for the most part, they don't.
125
426758
4026
其实大多数情况下,他们是不思考的
07:10
And that isn't because they don't want to,
126
430784
2993
这不是因为他们不想
07:13
it's really because they can't.
127
433777
2405
而是因为他们无法
07:16
And they can't because the people inside of them
128
436182
3347
因为在组织里面的人
07:19
are too afraid of conflict.
129
439529
4208
对于矛盾有一种恐惧心理
07:23
In surveys of European and American executives,
130
443737
2864
在对欧洲和美国行政人员的调查中,
07:26
fully 85 percent of them acknowledged
131
446601
2970
有百分之85都承认
07:29
that they had issues or concerns at work
132
449571
3517
他们有一些他们自己不敢说出
07:33
that they were afraid to raise.
133
453088
3633
的话题和意见
07:36
Afraid of the conflict that that would provoke,
134
456721
3159
对可能产生的矛盾有恐惧心理
07:39
afraid to get embroiled in arguments
135
459880
2368
不想被缠绕在他们不知道怎么
07:42
that they did not know how to manage,
136
462248
2031
处理的争论中
07:44
and felt that they were bound to lose.
137
464279
4577
而且感到他们肯定会输
07:48
Eighty-five percent is a really big number.
138
468856
6177
百分之85可是很大的数字
07:55
It means that organizations mostly can't do
139
475033
2815
这意味着大多数组织没法做
07:57
what George and Alice so triumphantly did.
140
477848
2328
George和Alice成功做到的事情
08:00
They can't think together.
141
480176
4399
他们不能心往一处想
08:04
And it means that people like many of us,
142
484575
2241
而这意味着跟我们一样的许多
08:06
who have run organizations,
143
486816
2184
带领组织的人
08:09
and gone out of our way to try to find the very best people we can,
144
489000
3567
都在尽可能找到他们能找到最好的人
08:12
mostly fail to get the best out of them.
145
492567
6273
不过大多数都失败了
08:18
So how do we develop the skills that we need?
146
498840
3336
那么我们怎样培养我们需要的技巧呢?
08:22
Because it does take skill and practice, too.
147
502176
4083
因为这的确需要一些技巧和练习
08:26
If we aren't going to be afraid of conflict,
148
506259
3414
如果我们不惧怕矛盾的话,
08:29
we have to see it as thinking,
149
509673
2159
我们必须把它当作思考
08:31
and then we have to get really good at it.
150
511832
4336
然后我们必须变得很擅长
08:36
So, recently, I worked with an executive named Joe,
151
516168
4264
因此,最近,我在和一个叫Joe的行政人员工作,
08:40
and Joe worked for a medical device company.
152
520432
3472
Jow为一家医疗设备公司工作
08:43
And Joe was very worried about the device that he was working on.
153
523904
2975
他很担心他正在工作的这台医疗设备
08:46
He thought that it was too complicated
154
526879
3025
实在太复杂了
08:49
and he thought that its complexity
155
529904
1864
以至于这台机器可能
08:51
created margins of error that could really hurt people.
156
531768
4267
会产生一些错误去伤害人们
08:56
He was afraid of doing damage to the patients he was trying to help.
157
536035
4140
他很害怕去伤害那些他想帮助的人们
09:00
But when he looked around his organization,
158
540175
2305
不过他看了看周围的人,
09:02
nobody else seemed to be at all worried.
159
542480
4461
没人似乎有这种担心
09:06
So, he didn't really want to say anything.
160
546941
2555
因此,他不想把自己的想法说出来
09:09
After all, maybe they knew something he didn't.
161
549496
2184
毕竟,其他人可能知道他有不知道的东西,
09:11
Maybe he'd look stupid.
162
551680
2584
这样他会看起来很愚蠢
09:14
But he kept worrying about it,
163
554264
2206
但是他始终非常担心,
09:16
and he worried about it so much that he got to the point
164
556470
3046
以至于他到达一种程度
09:19
where he thought the only thing he could do
165
559516
2159
他觉得唯一可以做的事情
09:21
was leave a job he loved.
166
561675
4130
就是辞掉他热爱的工作
09:25
In the end, Joe and I found a way
167
565805
4000
最后,Joe和我找到一个
09:29
for him to raise his concerns.
168
569805
1855
提升他担心关注度的方法
09:31
And what happened then is what almost always
169
571660
2871
结果呢,总是发生的事情
09:34
happens in this situation.
170
574531
1594
果然再一次发生了.
09:36
It turned out everybody had exactly the same
171
576125
3221
所有人其实都有着
09:39
questions and doubts.
172
579346
1746
同样的问题和怀疑
09:41
So now Joe had allies. They could think together.
173
581092
4032
所以现在Joe和他的伙伴.他们可以往一处去思考
09:45
And yes, there was a lot of conflict and debate
174
585124
3264
当然,这其中有很多的矛盾和辩论
09:48
and argument, but that allowed everyone around the table
175
588388
4304
不过这使得所有人都变得
09:52
to be creative, to solve the problem,
176
592692
4080
有创造力,都能去解决问题
09:56
and to change the device.
177
596772
4328
去改变这台设备
10:01
Joe was what a lot of people might think of
178
601100
3376
Joe有点像是大多数认为的
10:04
as a whistle-blower,
179
604476
2272
揭发者
10:06
except that like almost all whistle-blowers,
180
606748
2715
只不过像所有揭发者一样,
10:09
he wasn't a crank at all,
181
609463
2373
他不是在异想天开
10:11
he was passionately devoted to the organization
182
611836
3448
他有激情地为组织付出
10:15
and the higher purposes that that organization served.
183
615284
3448
以及为组织的目标所努力
10:18
But he had been so afraid of conflict,
184
618732
3816
不过他对于矛盾太过于惧怕
10:22
until finally he became more afraid of the silence.
185
622548
5080
直到最后沉默对他来说更为可怕
10:27
And when he dared to speak,
186
627628
1859
而当他敢于说出口的时候,
10:29
he discovered much more inside himself
187
629487
3398
他发现了更多的自己
10:32
and much more give in the system than he had ever imagined.
188
632885
5242
以及他从未想象过的对于系统的贡献
10:38
And his colleagues don't think of him as a crank.
189
638127
3331
而且他的同事没觉得他的想法是天方夜谭
10:41
They think of him as a leader.
190
641458
5128
他们认为他是个领导者
10:46
So, how do we have these conversations more easily
191
646586
4368
所以说,我们怎么样才能更简单
10:50
and more often?
192
650954
1913
更经常地来发起这些对话呢?
10:52
Well, the University of Delft
193
652867
1986
嗯, Delft 大学要求
10:54
requires that its PhD students
194
654853
2397
它所有的博士学生
10:57
have to submit five statements that they're prepared to defend.
195
657250
3913
必须提交他们已经准备好可以进行辩护的5个陈述
11:01
It doesn't really matter what the statements are about,
196
661163
3384
这些陈述是什么都无所谓
11:04
what matters is that the candidates are willing and able
197
664547
3792
重要的是这些选手们愿意而且有能力
11:08
to stand up to authority.
198
668339
2603
对权威提出挑战
11:10
I think it's a fantastic system,
199
670942
2364
我认为这是一个极棒的系统
11:13
but I think leaving it to PhD candidates
200
673306
2513
不过我觉得把这些留给博士生
11:15
is far too few people, and way too late in life.
201
675819
4305
太少了,而且太晚了
11:20
I think we need to be teaching these skills
202
680124
3166
我认为我们应该向所以小孩和大人
11:23
to kids and adults at every stage of their development,
203
683290
4080
都来教授这些技巧
11:27
if we want to have thinking organizations
204
687370
2449
如果我们想要能够思考的组织
11:29
and a thinking society.
205
689819
3647
和社会
11:33
The fact is that most of the biggest catastrophes that we've witnessed
206
693466
5618
事实上,那些我们曾经见证过的最大的灾难,
11:39
rarely come from information that is secret or hidden.
207
699084
6391
很少是由于一些隐藏的或者秘密的信息而产生
11:45
It comes from information that is freely available and out there,
208
705475
4304
都是由那些公开的信息而造成的
11:49
but that we are willfully blind to,
209
709779
2384
不过我们只不是完全忽略了而已
11:52
because we can't handle, don't want to handle,
210
712163
3128
因为我们不想去处理引起
11:55
the conflict that it provokes.
211
715291
4407
的各种麻烦和矛盾
11:59
But when we dare to break that silence,
212
719698
2929
但是当我们愿意去打破这种沉默
12:02
or when we dare to see,
213
722627
2657
或者我们敢于看到
12:05
and we create conflict,
214
725284
2255
并且制造矛盾
12:07
we enable ourselves and the people around us
215
727539
2625
我们使得我们以及周围的人
12:10
to do our very best thinking.
216
730164
4246
进行最有效的思考
12:14
Open information is fantastic,
217
734410
3376
公开信息是很棒的
12:17
open networks are essential.
218
737786
3184
公开的网络很关键
12:20
But the truth won't set us free
219
740970
1977
但是事实不会让我们自由
12:22
until we develop the skills and the habit and the talent
220
742947
3764
除非我们拥有技能,习惯,天赋,
12:26
and the moral courage to use it.
221
746711
4137
以及道德上的勇气去利用它
12:30
Openness isn't the end.
222
750848
3760
公开并不是一个结束
12:34
It's the beginning.
223
754608
2642
它只是一个开始
12:37
(Applause)
224
757250
11479
(鼓掌)
New videos
关于本网站
这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。