How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you

Hans Rosling: Postaviću vam

three multiple choice questions.

tri pitanja s ponuđenim odgovorima.

Use this device. Use this device to answer.

Koristite ovu spravu. Koristite ovu spravu za odgovore.

The first question is, how did the number

Prvo pitanje glasi: koliko se broj

of deaths per year

smrti na godišnjem nivou

from natural disaster,

od prirodnih katastrofa,

how did that change during the last century?

koliko se promenio tokom poslednjeg veka?

Did it more than double,

Da li se udvostručio,

did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,

da li je ostao više-manje isti na svetskom nivou

or did it decrease to less than half?

ili se smanjio za pola?

Please answer A, B or C.

Molim vas odgovorite pod A, B ili C.

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

Vidim mnogo odgovora. Ovo ide mnogo brže nego kad to radim na univerzitetima.

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

Oni su veoma spori. Samo misle, misle i misle.

Oh, very, very good.

Ah, dobro, veoma dobro.

And we go to the next question.

Prelazimo na sledeće pitanje.

So how long did women 30 years old

Koliko je vremena tridesetogodišnja žena

in the world go to school:

provela u školi, na svetskom nivou:

seven years, five years or three years?

sedam godina, pet godina ili tri godine?

A, B or C? Please answer.

A, B ili C? Molim vas odgovorite.

And we go to the next question.

Prelazimo na sledeće pitanje.

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage

U poslednjih 20 godina, koliko se procenat

of people in the world

ljudi na svetu

who live in extreme poverty change?

koji žive u ekstremnom siromaštvu, promenio?

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

Ekstremno siromaštvo - nemanje dovoljno hrane za dan.

Did it almost double,

Da li se skoro udvostručio,

did it remain more or less the same,

da li je ostao više-manje isti

or did it halve?

ili se prepolovio?

A, B or C?

A, B ili C?

Now, answers.

Sad, odgovori.

You see,

Vidite,

deaths from natural disasters in the world,

smrti od prirodnih katastrofa,

you can see it from this graph here,

možete ih videti na ovom grafikonu,

from 1900 to 2000.

od 1900. do 2000.

In 1900, there was about half a million people

Godine 1900, oko pola miliona ljudi

who died every year from natural disasters:

je umiralo godišnje od prirodnih nepogoda:

floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.

poplava, zemljotresa, vulkanskih erupcija, suše, čega god.

And then, how did that change?

A onda, kako se to promenilo?

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.

Gepmajnder je pitao švedsku javnost.

This is how they answered.

Evo kako su odgovorili.

The Swedish public answered like this:

Švedska javnost je odgovorila ovako:

Fifty percent thought it had doubled,

50% je mislilo da je udvostručen,

38 percent said it's more or less the same,

38% je reklo da je više-manje isti,

12 said it had halved.

12% je reklo da je prepolovljen.

This is the best data from the disaster researchers,

Ovo su najtačniji podaci od proučavalaca katastrofa,

and it goes up and down,

i kriva ide gore-dole,

and it goes to the Second World War,

raste do Drugog svetskog rata

and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling

a onda počinje da pada i nastavlja da pada

and it's down to much less than half.

i spušta se daleko ispod polovine.

The world has been much, much more capable

Svet je postajao sve sposobniji,

as the decades go by

kako su decenije prolazile,

to protect people from this, you know.

da zaštiti ljude od ovoga, znate.

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

Dakle, samo 12% Šveđana je znalo za ovo.

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

Pa sam otišao u zoološki vrt i pitao šimpanze.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

The chimps don't watch the evening news,

Šimpanze ne gledaju večernji dnevnik,

so the chimps,

zato su šimpanze

they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random.

odgovarale nasumično, pa su odgovori Šveđana ispali gori od nasumičnih.

Now how did you do?

Kako ste vi prošli?

That's you.

Ovo ste vi.

You were beaten by the chimps.

Pobedile su vas šimpanze.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But it was close.

Ali bilo je blizu.

You were three times better than the Swedes,

Bili ste tri puta bolji od Šveđana,

but that's not enough.

ali to nije dovoljno.

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

Nemojte se porediti sa Šveđanima.

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

Morate da budete ambiciozniji u životu.

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

Pogledajmo sledeći odgovor: žene u školi.

Here, you can see men went eight years.

Ovde vidite da muškarci idu osam godina.

How long did women go to school?

Koliko su žene išle u školu?

Well, we asked the Swedes like this,

Pitali smo Šveđane isto to

and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

i evo vam nagoveštaja, zar ne?

The right answer is probably the one

Tačan odgovor je verovatno onaj

the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?

koji je izabralo najmanje Šveđana, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

Da vidimo, da vidimo. Evo nas.

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

Da, da, da, žene samo što nisu sustigle muškarce.

This is the U.S. public.

Ovo je američka javnost.

And this is you. Here you come.

A ovo ste vi. Evo vas.

Ooh.

Ooo.

Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes,

Čestitam, duplo ste bolji od Šveđana,

but you don't need me —

ali ne treba ja da vam to kažem -

So how come? I think it's like this,

Pa kako to? Mislim da je to zato

that everyone is aware that there are countries

što su svi svesni da postoje zemlje

and there are areas

i područja

where girls have great difficulties.

u kojima je devojkama veoma teško.

They are stopped when they go to school,

Sprečene su da idu u školu

and it's disgusting.

i to je odvratno.

But in the majority of the world,

Ali u većem delu sveta,

where most people in the world live,

gde najviše ljudi živi,

most countries, girls today go to school

u većini država, devojke sada idu u školu

as long as boys, more or less.

podjednako dugo kao dečaci, više-manje.

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved,

To ne znači da je postignuta rodna ravnopravnost,

not at all.

nikako.

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,

One su i dalje osuđene na užasna, užasna ograničenja,

but schooling is there in the world today.

ali obrazovanje je tu u današnjem svetu.

Now, we miss the majority.

E sad, gubimo iz vida većinu.

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places,

Kada odgovarate, odgovarate imajući u vidu najgora mesta

and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

i za njih ste u pravu, ali gubite iz vida većinu.

What about poverty?

Šta je sa siromaštvom?

Well, it's very clear that poverty here

Pa, jasno je da je siromaštvo

was almost halved,

skoro prepolovljeno,

and in U.S., when we asked the public,

a kada smo pitali javnost SAD-a,

only five percent got it right.

samo pet procenata je pogodilo.

And you?

A vi?

Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

Ah, umalo da dosegnete šimpanze.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

That little, just a few of you!

Tako je malo falilo, samo nekolicina!

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

Mora da imate formirane predrasude, znate.

And many in the rich countries,

Mnogi u bogatim zemljama

they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

misle kako, oh, nikada nećemo iskoreniti ekstremno siromaštvo.

Of course they think so,

Naravno da tako razmišljaju

because they don't even know what has happened.

jer oni ni ne znaju šta se dogodilo.

The first thing to think about the future

Prvo, da biste razmišljali o budućnosti

is to know about the present.

morate da poznajete sadašnjost.

These questions were a few of the first ones

Ovo je nekoliko prvih pitanja

in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project

iz pilot faze projekta Neznalica

in Gapminder Foundation that we run,

koji vodimo u fondaciji Gepmajnder.

and it was started, this project, last year

Ovaj projekat je pokrenuo prošle godine

by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)

moj šef, koji je takođe moj sin, Ola Rosling. (Smeh)

He's cofounder and director,

On je suosnivač i direktor

and he wanted, Ola told me

i želeo je, Ola mi je rekao

we have to be more systematic

moramo da budemo sistematičniji

when we fight devastating ignorance.

u borbi sa razarajućim neznanjem.

So already the pilots reveal this,

Dakle, već u startu smo otkrili

that so many in the public score worse than random,

da većina javnosti ima gore rezultate od nasumičnog pogađanja,

so we have to think about preconceived ideas,

zato moramo da razmislimo o predrasudama

and one of the main preconceived ideas

a jedna od glavnih predrasuda

is about world income distribution.

je ona o raspodeli prihoda u svetu.

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

Pogledajte. Ovako je to bilo 1975.

It's the number of people on each income,

Vidimo ljude raspoređene po zaradama,

from one dollar a day —

od jednog dolara na dan -

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

See, there was one hump here,

Vidite, imali smo jednu grbu ovde,

around one dollar a day,

oko dolara na dan,

and then there was one hump here

a potom smo imali grbu ovde,

somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

negde između 10 i 100 dolara.

The world was two groups.

Svet su činile dve grupe.

It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,

Bio je to kamila svet, poput dvogrbe kamile,

the poor ones and the rich ones,

siromašni i bogati,

and there were fewer in between.

a nekolicina je bila između.

But look how this has changed:

Ali pogledajte kako se to promenilo:

As I go forward, what has changed,

kako idem napred, šta se promenilo,

the world population has grown,

svetska populacija je porasla

and the humps start to merge.

i grbe su počele da se stapaju.

The lower humps merged with the upper hump,

Donje grbe su se stopile s gornjom,

and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world

i kamila je umrla, te sad imamo svet nalik na dromedara

with one hump only.

sa samo jednom grbom.

The percent in poverty has decreased.

Procenat siromašnih se smanjio.

Still it's appalling

I dalje je užasavajuće

that so many remain in extreme poverty.

da toliko ljudi i dalje živi u ekstremnom siromaštvu.

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,

I dalje imamo grupu, skoro milijardu ljudi je tu,

but that can be ended now.

ali to može da bude okončano odmah.

The challenge we have now

Pred nama je izazov

is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

da pobegnemo od toga, da shvatimo gde je većina,

and that is very clearly shown in this question.

a to je jasno pokazano u sledećem pitanju.

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's

Pitali smo: koji je procenat u svetu

one-year-old children who have got those

jednogodišnjaka koji su dobili

basic vaccines against measles and other things

osnovne vakcine protiv malih boginja i drugih stvari,

that we have had for many years:

koje postoje već mnogo godina.

20, 50 or 80 percent?

20, 50 ili 80 posto?

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

Evo kako je javnost SAD-a i Švedske odgovorila.

Look at the Swedish result:

Pogledajte Šveđane,

you know what the right answer is.

odmah znate koji je tačan odgovor.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

Ko je dovraga profesor globalnog zdravlja u toj državi?

Well, it's me. It's me.

Pa, to sam ja. Ja sam.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

Teško je sve ovo. Veoma je teško.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

However, Ola's approach

Međutim, Olin pristup

to really measure what we know made headlines,

kako da zaista izmerimo koliko znamo je stigao u glavne vesti.

and CNN published these results on their web

Si-En-En je objavio ove rezultate na svom sajtu,

and they had the questions there, millions answered,

postavili su i pitanja, milioni su odgovarali,

and I think there were about 2,000 comments,

i mislim da je bilo oko 2000 komentara.

and this was one of the comments.

Ovo je bio jedan od komentara.

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

"Kladim se da niko iz medija ne bi položio ovaj test", rekao je.

So Ola told me, "Take these devices.

Pa mi je Ola rekao: "Uzmi ove sprave.

You are invited to media conferences.

Tebe pozivaju na konferencije.

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

Postavi im pitanja i izmeri koliko mediji znaju."

And ladies and gentlemen,

I, dame i gospodo,

for the first time, the informal results

prvi put, nezvanični rezultati

from a conference with U.S. media.

sa konferencije američkih medija.

And then, lately, from the European Union media.

A kasnije i od medija iz Evropske unije.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You see, the problem is not that people

Vidite, nije problem u tome da ljudi

don't read and listen to the media.

ne čitaju i ne slušaju medije.

The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

Problem je da ni mediji nemaju pojma.

What shall we do about this, Ola?

Šta ćemo da uradimo s tim, Ola?

Do we have any ideas?

Imamo li neke ideje?

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,

Ola Rosling: Da, imam ideju, ali prvo,

I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

žao mi je što su vas pobedile šimpanze.

Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you

Srećom, mogu da vas utešim

by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

tako što ću da vam pokažem kako to nije uistinu vaša krivica.

Then, I will equip you with some tricks

Potom ću da vam pokažem neke trikove

for beating the chimps in the future.

uz koje ćete u buduće pobeđivati šimpanze.

That's basically what I will do.

To je u suštini ono što ću da uradim.

But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant,

Ali prvo, pogledajmo zašto smo takve neznalice,

and it all starts in this place.

a sve počinje na ovom mestu.

It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

Ovo je Hudiksval. Grad u severnoj Švedskoj.

It's a neighborhood where I grew up,

To je komšiluk u kom sam odrastao

and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

i to je komšiluk s ogromnim problemom.

Actually, it has exactly the same problem

Zapravo, ima potpuno isti problem

which existed in all the neighborhoods

kao i svi komšiluci

where you grew up as well.

u kojima ste vi odrasli.

It was not representative. Okay?

Nije bio reprezentativan primerak. U redu?

It gave me a very biased view

Dao mi je veoma jednostran pogled

of how life is on this planet.

na to kakav je život na ovoj planeti.

So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.

Dakle, ovo je prvo mesto u slagalici neznanja.

We have a personal bias.

Imamo lična ograničenja.

We have all different experiences

Svi imamo različita iskustva

from communities and people we meet,

od zajednica i ljudi koje srećemo,

and on top of this, we start school,

i povrh svega, pođemo u školu,

and we add the next problem.

te se tome pridoda sledeći problem.

Well, I like schools,

Ja volim škole,

but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

ali nastavnici nas često podučavaju zastarelim pogledima na svet,

because they learned something when they went to school,

jer su oni nešto naučili kad su išli u školu

and now they describe this world to the students

i sada taj svet opisuju đacima,

without any bad intentions,

bez ikakvih zadnjih namera,

and those books, of course, that are printed

i te knjige, naravno, koje su štampane

are outdated in a world that changes.

su zastarele u svetu koji se menja.

And there is really no practice

I zaista ne postoji praksa

to keep the teaching material up to date.

u održavanju nastavnog plana aktuelnim.

So that's what we are focusing on.

Dakle, na to smo se usredsredili.

So we have these outdated facts

Dakle, imamo ove zastarele podatke

added on top of our personal bias.

povrh naših ličnih predrasuda.

What happens next is news, okay?

Sledeće na redu su vesti, u redu?

An excellent journalist knows how to pick

Odličan novinar zna kako da odabere

the story that will make headlines,

priču koja će da postane glavna vest,

and people will read it because it's sensational.

a ljudi će je čitati jer je senzacija.

Unusual events are more interesting, no?

Neobični događaji su zanimljiviji, zar ne?

And they are exaggerated,

Oni su preuveličani,

and especially things we're afraid of.

naročito stvari koje nas plaše.

A shark attack on a Swedish person

Napad ajkule na Šveđanina

will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

će da bude glavna vest nedeljama u Švedskoj.

So these three skewed sources of information

Od ova tri naopaka izvora informacija

were really hard to get away from.

zaista je teško pobeći.

They kind of bombard us

Nekako nas bombarduju,

and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,

snabdevaju naš um gomilom čudnih ideja,

and on top of it we put the very thing

a povrh svega toga dolazi baš ono

that makes us humans, our human intuition.

što nas čini ljudima, naša ljudska intuicija.

It was good in evolution.

Bila je korisna tokom evolucije.

It helped us generalize

Doprinela je uopštavanju

and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

i ishitrenom zaključivanju, veoma, veoma brzo.

It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,

Pomogla nam je da uveličamo ono čega se plašimo

and we seek causality where there is none,

i da tražimo posledičnost tamo gde je nema,

and we then get an illusion of confidence

te smo tako dobili iluzorno samopouzdanje

where we believe that we are the best car drivers,

gde verujemo da smo najbolji vozači,

above the average.

iznad proseka.

Everybody answered that question,

Svi su tako odgovorili:

"Yeah, I drive cars better."

"Da, ja vozim bolje."

Okay, this was good evolutionarily,

U redu, ovo je bilo dobro tokom evolucije,

but now when it comes to the worldview,

ali sad kad se radi o pogledu na svet,

it is the exact reason why it's upside down.

baš to je razlog što je on naopak.

The trends that are increasing are instead falling,

Trendovi koji su u porastu, zapravo padaju

and the other way around,

i obratno.

and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us,

U ovom slučaju šimpanze koriste našu intuiciju protiv nas,

and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

te ona postaje naša slabost, a ne snaga.

It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

Trebalo bi da bude naša snaga, zar ne?

So how do we solve such problems?

Pa kako da rešimo takve probleme?

First, we need to measure it,

Prvo, moramo da ih izmerimo,

and then we need to cure it.

a onda da ih lečimo.

So by measuring it we can understand

Mereći ih možemo da razumemo

what is the pattern of ignorance.

koji je šablon neznanja.

We started the pilot last year,

Pokrenuli smo pilot prošle godine

and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter

i sada smo prilično sigurni da ćemo naići

a lot of ignorance across the whole world,

na mnogo neznanja širom sveta,

and the idea is really to

a zamisao je da ga

scale it up to all domains

razvrstamo u sve domene

or dimensions of global development,

ili dimenzije globalnog razvoja,

such as climate, endangered species, human rights,

poput klime, ugroženih vrsta, ljudskih prava,

gender equality, energy, finance.

rodne ravnopravnosti, energije, finansija.

All different sectors have facts,

Svi ti različiti sektori poseduju činjenice

and there are organizations trying to spread

a postoje organizacije koje pokušavaju

awareness about these facts.

da šire svest o ovim činjenicama.

So I've started actually contacting some of them,

Ja sam zapravo pokušao da kontaktiram neke od njih,

like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,

poput Svetske organizacije za prirodu, Amnesti internešnela i UNICEF-a,

and asking them, what are your favorite facts

i pitao sam ih, koje su vam omiljene činjenice

which you think the public doesn't know?

koje smatrate da nisu poznate javnosti?

Okay, I gather those facts.

U redu, sakupio sam te činjenice.

Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.

Zamislite dugačku listu, recimo, od 250 činjenica.

And then we poll the public

Zatim smo anketirali javnost

and see where they score worst.

i videli gde su najgori rezultati.

So we get a shorter list

Tako smo dobili kraću listu

with the terrible results,

s očajnim rezultatima,

like some few examples from Hans,

poput nekoliko Hansovih primera,

and we have no problem finding these kinds

i nije nam bio problem da nađemo slične

of terrible results.

očajne rezultate.

Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

U redu, ova malena kratka lista, šta ćemo s njom?

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,

Pa, pretvorićemo je u sertifikat znanja,

a global knowledge certificate,

sertifikat globalnog znanja,

which you can use, if you're a large organization,

koji možete da koristite, ako ste velika organizacija,

a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,

škola, univerzitet ili možda novinska agencija,

to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

kako biste bili sertifikovani poznavalac sveta.

Basically meaning, we don't hire people

To u suštini znači, ne zapošljavamo ljude

who score like chimpanzees.

koji imaju rezultate poput šimpanzi.

Of course you shouldn't.

Naravno da ne bi trebalo.

So maybe 10 years from now,

Možda za deset godina,

if this project succeeds,

ako ovaj projekat uspe,

you will be sitting in an interview

bićete na razgovoru za posao,

having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

moraćete da ispunite ovaj ludi test globalnog znanja.

So now we come to the practical tricks.

Sada stižemo do praktičnih trikova.

How are you going to succeed?

Kako da budete uspešni?

There is, of course, one way,

Postoji, naravno, jedan način,

which is to sit down late nights

a to je da sedite do kasno uveče

and learn all the facts by heart

i da učite sve činjenice napamet,

by reading all these reports.

čitajući sve ove izveštaje.

That will never happen, actually.

To se zapravo, nikada neće desiti.

Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

Čak ni Hans ne veruje u to.

People don't have that time.

Ljudi nemaju toliko vremena.

People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

Ljudi vole prečice, a evo ih i prečice.

We need to turn our intuition into strength again.

Moramo da pretvorimo intuiciju u snagu.

We need to be able to generalize.

Moramo znati da uopštavamo.

So now I'm going to show you some tricks

Sad ću vam pokazati neke trikove

where the misconceptions are turned around

gde se zablude mogu preokrenuti

into rules of thumb.

u pravila.

Let's start with the first misconception.

Počećemo s prvom zabludom.

This is very widespread.

Ovo je rasprostranjena zabluda.

Everything is getting worse.

Sve je gore i gore.

You heard it. You thought it yourself.

Čuli ste to. I sami ste to pomislili.

The other way to think is, most things improve.

Drugi način da mislite je da se većina stvari popravlja.

So you're sitting with a question in front of you

Sedite s pitanjem ispred vas,

and you're unsure. You should guess "improve."

niste sigurni. Pretpostvite "napredak".

Okay? Don't go for the worse.

U redu? Ne odgovarajte "pogoršanje".

That will help you score better on our tests.

To će vam pomoći da budete uspešniji na testovima.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

That was the first one.

To je bilo prvo pitanje.

There are rich and poor

Postoje bogati i siromašni,

and the gap is increasing.

a jaz među njima raste.

It's a terrible inequality.

Nejednakost je užasna.

Yeah, it's an unequal world,

Da, ovo je svet nejednakosti,

but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

ali ako pogledate podatke, samo jedna je grba.

Okay? If you feel unsure,

U redu? Ako niste sigurni,

go for "the most people are in the middle."

pokušajte sa "većina ljudi je u sredini".

That's going to help you get the answer right.

To će vam pomoći da pogodite tačan odgovor.

Now, the next preconceived idea is

Sad, sledeća predrasuda je

first countries and people need to be very, very rich

da države i ljudi moraju da postanu veoma, veoma bogati

to get the social development

kako bi došlo do društvenog napretka,

like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

poput obrazovanja devojaka i spremnosti na prirodne katastrofe.

No, no, no. That's wrong.

Ne, ne, ne. To je pogrešno.

Look: that huge hump in the middle

Pogledajte: ta ogromna grba u sredini

already have girls in school.

već ima obrazovane devojke.

So if you are unsure, go for the

Zato ako niste sigurni, pokušajte sa

"the majority already have this,"

"većini je ovo već dostupno",

like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

poput struje, obrazovanja za devojke i sličnih stvari.

They're only rules of thumb,

To su sve samo pravila,

so of course they don't apply to everything,

naravno da nisu primenjiva na sve,

but this is how you can generalize.

ali ovako možete da uopštavate.

Let's look at the last one.

Pogledajmo poslednje pitanje.

If something, yes, this is a good one,

Ako je nešto tačno, da, ovo je dobro,

sharks are dangerous.

to je da su ajkule opasne.

No — well, yes, but they are not so important

Ne - dobro, jesu, ali to nije tako važno

in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

u globalnoj statistici, na to mislim.

I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

Ja se zapravo veoma plašim ajkula.

So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of,

Zato čim vidim pitanje o stvarima kojih se plašim,

which might be earthquakes, other religions,

to mogu da budu zemljotresi, druge religije,

maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks,

možda me je strah terorista ili ajkula,

anything that makes me feel,

sve što izaziva emocije

assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

utiče na to da preuveličate problem.

That's a rule of thumb.

To je pravilo.

Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.

Naravno da ima opasnih, a sjajnih stvari.

Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think.

Ajkule ubijaju veoma, veoma retko. Tako bi trebalo da razmišljate.

With these four rules of thumb,

Sa ova četiri pravila,

you could probably answer better than the chimps,

verovatno ćete odgovarati bolje od šimpanzi,

because the chimps cannot do this.

jer šimpanze ne mogu da izvedu ovo.

They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

Ne mogu da uopštavaju pravila poput ovih.

And hopefully we can turn your world around

I nadam se da možemo da preokrenemo vaš svet

and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

i da pobedimo šimpanze. U redu?

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

That's a systematic approach.

To je sistematski pristup.

Now the question, is this important?

A sad pitanje: da li je ovo važno?

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,

Da, važno je razumeti siromaštvo,

extreme poverty and how to fight it,

ekstremno siromaštvo, i znati kako se boriti protiv njega

and how to bring girls in school.

i kako dovesti devojke u školu.

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

Kada shvatimo da tu zapravo postižemo uspeh, možemo to da shvatimo.

But is it important for everyone else

Ali da li je važno i za druge,

who cares about the rich end of this scale?

koga je briga za bogate na kraju ove lestvice?

I would say yes, extremely important,

Rekao bih da jeste, izuzetno je važno,

for the same reason.

iz istog razloga.

If you have a fact-based worldview of today,

Ako trenutno imate pogled na svet zasnovan na činjenicama,

you might have a chance to understand

možda ćete imati šansu da razumete

what's coming next in the future.

šta nam donosi budućnost.

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

Vraćamo se na ove dve grbe iz 1975.

That's when I was born,

Ja sam tad rođen

and I selected the West.

i izabrao sam Zapad.

That's the current EU countries and North America.

To su trenutno članice EU i Severna Amerika.

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares

Pogledajmo kako se ostali drže u poređenju sa zapadnim zemljama

in terms of how rich you are.

prema bogatstvu.

These are the people who can afford

Ovo su ljudi koji mogu da priušte

to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.

putovanje avionom u inostranstvo, na odmor.

In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived

Godine 1975, samo 30 procenata njih je živelo

outside EU and North America.

van EU i Severne Amerike.

But this has changed, okay?

Ali došlo je do promene, u redu?

So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.

Prvo, pogledajmo dosadašnje promene, do 2014.

Today it's 50/50.

Danas je to 50/50.

The Western domination is over, as of today.

Dominacija Zapada je završena, za sad.

That's nice. So what's going to happen next?

To je lepo. Pa šta će sledeće da se desi?

Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?

Da li vidite veliku grbu? Jeste li videli kako se pomerala?

I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.

Napravio sam mali eksperiment. Otišao sam na sajt Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda.

They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.

Oni imaju prognozu za BDP u narednih pet godina.

So I can use that to go five years into the future,

Mogu to da koristim i da odem pet godina u budućnost,

assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

pretpostavljajući da je nejednakost u prihodu ista za sve zemlje.

I did that, but I went even further.

To sam uradio, ali sam otišao i dalje.

I used those five years for the next 20 years

Koristio sam ovih pet godina kao odraz za narednih 20 godina,

with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.

istom brzinom, samo kao eksperiment šta bi se zaista moglo desiti.

Let's move into the future.

Krenimo u budućnost.

In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.

Godine 2020, 57 procenata ostatka sveta.

In 2025, 63 percent.

Godine 2025, 63 procenta.

2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.

Godine 2030, 68. A 2035, Zapad je prevaziđen na tržištu po bogatstvu.

These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.

Ovo su samo projekcije BDP-a po stanovniku u budućnosti.

Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers

73 procenta bogatih potrošača

are going to live outside North America and Europe.

će da žive van Severne Amerike i Evrope.

So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate

Zato, da, mislim da je dobra ideja da kompanije koriste ove sertifikate

to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.

kako bi bile sigurne da u buduće donose odluke zasnovane na činjenicama.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!

Bruno Đusani: Hans i Ola Rosling!