How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling

Translator: Arofat Akhundjanova Reviewer: Nazarbek Nazarov

Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you

Hans Rosling: Sizga javob variantli

three multiple choice questions.

uchta savol bermoqchiman.

Use this device. Use this device to answer.

Javob berish uchun tarqatilgan mana bu qurilmani ishlating. Birinchi savol:

The first question is, how did the number

yiliga tabiiy ofatdan [2014, iyun. Berlin, Germaniya]

of deaths per year

halok bo'luvchilar soni

from natural disaster,

o'tgan asrda mobaynida

how did that change during the last century?

qanchalik o'zgardi?

Did it more than double,

Ikki baravarga ko'paydimi,

did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,

butun dunyo miqyosida deyarli o'zgarishga uchramadimi

or did it decrease to less than half?

yoki ikki baravar kamaydimi?

Please answer A, B or C.

Iltimos, A, B yoki C javobini tanlang. Juda ko'p

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

javoblarni ko'ryapman. Universitetdagi talabalarimdan ko'ra tezroq javob

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

beryapsiz. Ular shunchalik sekinki, o'ylayveradi, o'ylayveradi.

Oh, very, very good.

Juda yaxshi, ajoyib.

And we go to the next question.

Keyingi savolga o'tamiz.

So how long did women 30 years old

Xo'sh, o'rtacha 30 yoshdagi ayollar

in the world go to school:

qancha vaqt maktabga borgan:

seven years, five years or three years?

yetti yil, besh yil yoki uch yil?

A, B or C? Please answer.

A, B yoki C? Iltimos, javob bering.

And we go to the next question.

Endi esa oxirgi savol.

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage

So'nggi 20 yil ichida dunyoda

of people in the world

o'ta qashshoqlikda yashovchi kishilar

who live in extreme poverty change?

foizi qaysi tomonga o'zgardi? O'ta qashshoqlik

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

— kunlik iste'mol uchun oziq-ovqat yetishmasligi.

Did it almost double,

Ularning soni ikki baravar ko'payganmi,

did it remain more or less the same,

o'zgarmay qolganmi

or did it halve?

yoki ikki baravar kamayganmi?

A, B or C?

A, B yoki C?

Now, answers.

Endi javoblarga to'xtalsak.

You see,

Mana qarang,

deaths from natural disasters in the world,

1900-yildan 2000-yilgacha

you can see it from this graph here,

tabiiy ofatlardan o'lganlar sonini

from 1900 to 2000.

mazkur grafikdan ko'rishingiz mumkin.

In 1900, there was about half a million people

1900-yilda yiliga yarim millionga yaqin kishi

who died every year from natural disasters:

tabiiy ofatlardan halok bo'lgan:

floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.

suv toshqini, zilzila, vulqon otilishi, qurg'oqchilik va boshqalar.

And then, how did that change?

Xo'sh, ularning soni qanchalik o'zgardi?

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.

Gapminder tashkiloti Shvetsiya aholisidan so'rov o'tkazdi.

This is how they answered.

Mana ularning javoblari.

The Swedish public answered like this:

Shved jamoatchiligi shunday javob berdi:

Fifty percent thought it had doubled,

ularning 50 foizi ikki baravar

38 percent said it's more or less the same,

ko'paydi deb o'ylagan, 38 %i deyarli o'zgarmay

12 said it had halved.

qoldi, 12 %iga ko'ra, ikki marta qisqargan.

This is the best data from the disaster researchers,

Bu tadqiqotchilar tomonidan yig'ilgan eng ishonchli

and it goes up and down,

ma'lumotlardir, ularning soni goh ko'tariladi, goh tushadi,

and it goes to the Second World War,

II Jahon urushida eng yuqori ko'rsatichni qayd etgach,

and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling

u pasaya boshladi

and it's down to much less than half.

va hozirgacha ikki baravarga kamaydi.

The world has been much, much more capable

Bilasizmi, har o'n yillikda dunyo odamlarni

as the decades go by

falokatlardan yanada yaxshiroq

to protect people from this, you know.

himoya qilishga qodir bo'lib bormoqda.

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

Shvedlarning atigi 12 foizigina bundan xabardor. Shunda

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

hayvonot bog'iga borib, shimpanzelardan so'radim.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Kulgi) (Qarsak)

The chimps don't watch the evening news,

Shimpanzelar kechki yangiliklarni tomosha qilmasligi aniq, ammo

so the chimps,

ular tavakkal javob berib ham

they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random.

shvedlarni dog'da qoldirdi.

Now how did you do?

Siz qanday javob berdingiz?

That's you.

Mana bunday.

You were beaten by the chimps.

Shimpanzelar sizni ham mag'lub qildi.

(Laughter)

(Kulgi)

But it was close.

Ammo g'alabaga yaqin keldingiz.

You were three times better than the Swedes,

Siz shvedlardan uch baravar yaxshi javob berdingiz,

but that's not enough.

ammo bu yetarli emas.

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

O'zingizni ular bilan taqqoslamasligingiz kerak.

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

Siz eng yuqori natijalarni ko'rsatishingiz kerak. Keyingi javobga

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

e'tibor qaratsak: ayollarning maktabdagi ta'limi. Ko'rinib turibdiki,

Here, you can see men went eight years.

erkaklar o'rtacha 8 yil maktabga qatnagan.

How long did women go to school?

Ayollar necha yil maktabda o'qigan?

Well, we asked the Swedes like this,

Shvedlarga xuddi shu savolni berdik va ularning javobini

and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

tahmin qilishingiz mumkin, shunday emasmi?

The right answer is probably the one

To'g'ri javob, ehtimol,

the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?

eng kam shvedlar tanlagan variantdir?

(Laughter)

(Kulgi)

Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

Qani, ko'raylikchi. Mana natijalar.

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

Ha, ha, ha. Ayollar erkaklarga deyarli yetib oldi.

This is the U.S. public.

Bu AQSh jamoatchiligining javoblari.

And this is you. Here you come.

Bunisi esa sizniki.

Ooh.

Ooo, nima ham derdim, tabriklayman, siz shvedlardan ikki baravar

Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes,

yaxshi natija ko'rsatdingiz,

but you don't need me —

bunisi o'z-o'zidan ravshan.

So how come? I think it's like this,

Xo'sh, nega bunday natijalar chiqyapti? Menimcha, bunga sabab shuki,

that everyone is aware that there are countries

hammamiz qizlar katta muammolarga

and there are areas

duch kelayotgan joylar,

where girls have great difficulties.

davlatlar borligini bilamiz.

They are stopped when they go to school,

Ularga maktabga borish taqiqlangan

and it's disgusting.

va bu jirkanch holat. Ammo dunyoning

But in the majority of the world,

aksariyat aholisi yashaydigan ko'pchilik

where most people in the world live,

mamlakatlarda bugungi kunda

most countries, girls today go to school

qizlar o'g'il bolalar bilan

as long as boys, more or less.

deyarli birdek maktabga boradilar.

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved,

Bu umuman gender tengligiga

not at all.

erishganimizni anglatmaydi.

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,

Ular hali ham ko'p narsadan mahrum,

but schooling is there in the world today.

ammo maktab ta'limi izga tushdi.

Now, we miss the majority.

Bu yerda siz umumiy manzarani hisobga olmadingiz. Eng og'ir ahvoldagi muayyan

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places,

hududlarga asoslanib javob berdingiz va bu holatda siz haqlisiz,

and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

lekin umumiy manzara butunlay boshqacha. Qashshoqlik

What about poverty?

masalasi qay ahvolda?

Well, it's very clear that poverty here

Qashshoqlik ko'rsatkichi deyarli ikki baravar kamayganligi

was almost halved,

o'z-o'zidan ravshan.

and in U.S., when we asked the public,

Amerikaliklarning atigi besh foizi

only five percent got it right.

to'g'ri javob berdi.

And you?

Siz-chi?

Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

Eh-he, shimpanzelarga deyarli yetib olibsiz-ku.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Kulgi) (Qarsak)

That little, just a few of you!

Yutishingizga ozgina yetmabdi-ya!

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

Bilasizmi, atrofimizda to'qima fikrlar keng tarqalgan. Boy mamlakatlarda

And many in the rich countries,

ko'pchilik hech qachon qashshoqlikni

they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

tugata olmasak kerak, deb o'ylashadi.

Of course they think so,

Boshqa nima deb ham o'ylasin,

because they don't even know what has happened.

axir ular aslida nimalar bo'layotganini bilishmaydi-ku.

The first thing to think about the future

Kelajak haqida o'ylashdan avval hozirda

is to know about the present.

nimalar bo'layotganini bilish kerak.

These questions were a few of the first ones

Mazkur savollar Gapminder Tashkilotining bilimsizlik

in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project

to'g'risidagi loyihasi doirasida bergan dastlabki

in Gapminder Foundation that we run,

savollarimizdan bir nechtasi edi. Loyiha o'tgan yili

and it was started, this project, last year

mening boshlig'im va shuningdek o'g'lim Ola Rosling

by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)

tomonidan ishga tushirildi. (Kulgi) U tashkilotning hammuassisi

He's cofounder and director,

hamda direktori hisoblanadi.

and he wanted, Ola told me

Ola menga johillikka qarshi

we have to be more systematic

doimiy ravishda asosli

when we fight devastating ignorance.

kurashishimiz kerakligini aytdi.

So already the pilots reveal this,

So'rovnomalarga ko'ra, jamoatchilik tasodifiy

that so many in the public score worse than random,

javoblardan ko'ra yomonroq natija ko'rsatmoqda. Demak, to'qima

so we have to think about preconceived ideas,

fikrlarga qarshi chora ko'rishimiz zarur.

and one of the main preconceived ideas

Eng keng tarqalgan yanglish fikr bu dunyo

is about world income distribution.

daromadlari taqsimoti bilan bog'liq.

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

Mana qarang. 1975-yilda ko'rsatkichlar shunday edi.

It's the number of people on each income,

Bu kunlik daromadi bir dollardan

from one dollar a day —

boshlanib o'sib boruvchi kishilar soni.

(Applause)

(Qarsak) Bu yerdagi bitta do'nglikni

See, there was one hump here,

ko'ryapsizmi, bu - kunlik daromadi

around one dollar a day,

bir dollar atrofida bo'lganlar, bu esa

and then there was one hump here

daromadi 10-100 dollar bo'lgan

somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

kishilardan iborat boshqa bir do'nglik

The world was two groups.

Dunyo ikki guruhga bo'lingan.

It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,

Bu go'yo ikki o'rkachli tuya dunyosi edi:

the poor ones and the rich ones,

kambag'allar va boylar.

and there were fewer in between.

O'rta sinf deyarli yo'q edi.

But look how this has changed:

Ammo bu qanday o'zgarganiga e'tibor qarating:

As I go forward, what has changed,

vaqt o'tishi bilan

the world population has grown,

dunyo aholisi ko'payib bordi,

and the humps start to merge.

«o'rkachlar» esa birlasha boshladi.

The lower humps merged with the upper hump,

Pastki do'nglik yuqoridagisi bilan birlashdi

and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world

va ikki o'rkachli tuyamiz

with one hump only.

bir o'rkachli tuyaga aylandi.

The percent in poverty has decreased.

Qashshoqlik ko'rsatkichi kamaydi.

Still it's appalling

Shunga qaramay, ko'pchilik odamlar

that so many remain in extreme poverty.

qashshoqlikda qolayotgani dahshatli.

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,

Haligacha bir milliardga yaqin kishi qashshoqlikda yashaydi,

but that can be ended now.

ammo endi buni tugatish mumkin. Bizning oldimizda

The challenge we have now

turgan vazifa – to'qima fikrlardan uzoq turish,

is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

ko'pchilik aholi qayerda joylashganini tushunish.

and that is very clearly shown in this question.

Bu savolning o'zida juda aniq ko'rsatilgan.

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's

Biz dunyo bo'yicha bir yoshli bolalarning

one-year-old children who have got those

necha foizi qizamiqqa va

basic vaccines against measles and other things

boshqa kasalliklarga qarshi

that we have had for many years:

vaksina oladi, deb so'radik:

20, 50 or 80 percent?

20, 50 yoki 80 foizmi? Bu amerikaliklar va

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

shvedlar bergan javoblar. Shvedlar ko'rsatgan

Look at the Swedish result:

natijaga qarang:

you know what the right answer is.

to'g'ri javob qaysiligini bilib olasiz.

(Laughter)

(Kulgi)

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

Jin ursin, bu mamlakatdagi global sog'liqni saqlash professori kim o'zi?

Well, it's me. It's me.

Ochig'i, o'sha professor menman.

(Laughter)

(Kulgi)

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

Bu oson ish emas, ishoning menga.

(Applause)

(Qarsak)

However, Ola's approach

Biz nimani bilishimizni aniq hisoblash uchun Ola qo'llagan

to really measure what we know made headlines,

uslub gazetalarda shov-shuvga sabab bo'ldi. CNN ushbu

and CNN published these results on their web

natijalarni o'z veb-saytida e'lon qildi va mushtariylarga

and they had the questions there, millions answered,

savollar berdi. Millionlab kishilar javob

and I think there were about 2,000 comments,

berishdi va maqola ostida, menimcha, 2000 ga yaqin sharhlar qoldirildi.

and this was one of the comments.

O'sha sharhlardan birida: "Garov bog'lashim

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

mumkinki, OAV xodimlarining hech biri testdan o’tmagan", deyiladi.

So Ola told me, "Take these devices.

Shunda Ola menga: "Sizni taklif qilishgan matbuot

You are invited to media conferences.

konferensiyalariga borib, qurilma-

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

larni tarqating. Test topshirishsin, OAV nimani

And ladies and gentlemen,

bilishini ko'raylikchi", dedi.

for the first time, the informal results

Marhamat, birinchi marta AQSh matbuot konferensiyada

from a conference with U.S. media.

qo'lga kiritilgan norasmiy natijalar.

And then, lately, from the European Union media.

Bu esa Yevropa Ittifoqi OAV laridagi ahvol.

(Laughter)

(Kulgi) Ko'rib turibsizki,

You see, the problem is not that people

muammo odamlarning ommaviy axborot vositalarini

don't read and listen to the media.

o'qimasliklari va tinglamasliklarida emas.

The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

Muammo shundaki, OAV larning o'zlari hech nimani bilmaydi.

What shall we do about this, Ola?

Endi nima qildik, Ola?

Do we have any ideas?

Senda biror fikr bormi?

(Applause)

(Qarsak)

Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,

Ola Rosling: Ha, menda bir fikr bor. Ammo birinchi navbatda

I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

shimpanzelarga mag'lub bo'lganingizdan afsusdaligimni aytishga ijozat bersangiz.

Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you

Yaxshiyamki, sizga tasalli bera olaman:

by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

nima uchun bu sizning aybingiz emasligini ko'rsataman. Keyin,

Then, I will equip you with some tricks

kelajakda shimpanzelarni yutishingizda

for beating the chimps in the future.

yordam beruvchi ba'zi maslahatlarni beraman.

That's basically what I will do.

Odatda shunday qilaman. Keling, nega dunyo

But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant,

haqida bu qadar kam bilishimizni tushunib

and it all starts in this place.

olaylik. Hammasi shundan boshlanadi.

It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

Bu Hudiksvall, Shvetsiya shimolidagi shahar.

It's a neighborhood where I grew up,

Bu men ulg'aygan shaharcha.

and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

Unda bir katta muammo bor,

Actually, it has exactly the same problem

aslida, siz o'sib-ulg'aygan

which existed in all the neighborhoods

joylarda ham xuddi

where you grew up as well.

shunday muammo kuzatiladi.

It was not representative. Okay?

Shaharcha oddiy yashash joyi emas. U menga

It gave me a very biased view

sayyorada hayot qanday kechayotgani haqida juda xato

of how life is on this planet.

tasavvur bergan. Mana u, bilimsizlik piramidasiga

So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.

qo'yilgan birinchi tosh. Biz xato shaxsiy tasavvurlarimiz bilan

We have a personal bias.

dunyoga boqamiz. Biz yashab

We have all different experiences

katta bo'lgan joylardagi kishilar bilan

from communities and people we meet,

muloqot bunga ta'sir ko'rsatadi.

and on top of this, we start school,

Keyin esa maktabga qatnay boshlaymiz

and we add the next problem.

va muammo yana bittaga ko'payadi.

Well, I like schools,

Menga maktablar yoqadi,

but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

lekin o'qituvchilar eskirgan dunyoqarashni o'rgatadi.

because they learned something when they went to school,

Ular maktabga qatnagan paytida bilim oldi

and now they describe this world to the students

va endi dunyo haqidagi shu bilimlarini

without any bad intentions,

o'quvchilarga beg'araz o'rgatishadi.

and those books, of course, that are printed

Nashr etilgan kitoblar, shubhasiz, eskirgan,

are outdated in a world that changes.

axir dunyo doimiy o'zgarishda.

And there is really no practice

O'quv materiallarini

to keep the teaching material up to date.

yangilab turish o'ta mushkul.

So that's what we are focusing on.

Mana biz nimaga e'tibor qaratyapmiz.

So we have these outdated facts

Eskirgan faktlar

added on top of our personal bias.

xato shaxsiy tasavvurlarimiz ustiga qo'shiladi.

What happens next is news, okay?

Bunga OAV ning ta'siri qanday?

An excellent journalist knows how to pick

Yaxshi jurnalist qaysi voqeani yoritsa,

the story that will make headlines,

«duv-duv gap» bo'lishini biladi. Odamlar shov-shuv

and people will read it because it's sensational.

yangilik yoritilgan shu gazetani sotib olib o'qiydi.

Unusual events are more interesting, no?

G'ayrioddiy voqealar ko'proq qiziqish uyg'otadi, to'g'rimi?

And they are exaggerated,

Ko'p narsalar bo'rttirib

and especially things we're afraid of.

ko'rsatiladi, ayniqsa biz qo'rqadigan narsalar.

A shark attack on a Swedish person

Shvedga akula hujumi bir necha hafta davomida

will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

Shvetsiya gazetalari sarlavhalaridan tushmaydi.

So these three skewed sources of information

Mazkur uchta xato axborot manbalaridan

were really hard to get away from.

qutilish juda qiyin. Ular bizga axborot

They kind of bombard us

hujumi uyushtirib, ongimizni

and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,

g'alati fikrlar bilan to'ldiradi.

and on top of it we put the very thing

Kamiga ichki sezgimiz ham

that makes us humans, our human intuition.

xato fikrlashimizga xizmat qiladi. Intuitsiyamiz

It was good in evolution.

evolyutsiya jarayonida muhim rol o'ynagan.

It helped us generalize

U bizga ma'lumotni umum

and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

-lashtirib, tez xulosa chiqarishga yordam

It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,

bergan. U biz qo'rqqan narsalarni bo'rttirib ko'rsatadi

and we seek causality where there is none,

va yo'q joydan falokat qidira boshlaymiz.

and we then get an illusion of confidence

O'zimizga nisbatan yolg'ondakam ishonch paydo bo'ladi. Masalan,

where we believe that we are the best car drivers,

o'zimizni eng zo'r haydovchimiz, hech bo'lmaganda o'rtachadan

above the average.

yaxshiroq haydovchimiz deb ishonamiz

Everybody answered that question,

Bu savolga hamma "Ha, men

"Yeah, I drive cars better."

mashinani yaxshi haydayman"

Okay, this was good evolutionarily,

deb javob beradi. Bu evolyutsiyaga yaxshi ta'sir

but now when it comes to the worldview,

ko'rsatdi, ammo hozir dunyoqarash

it is the exact reason why it's upside down.

haqida gap ketganda, so'rov natijalarining yomonligiga aynan

The trends that are increasing are instead falling,

mana shu sababchi. Sizning xayolingizda ko'tarilayotgan

and the other way around,

ko'rsatkichlar aslida pasaymoqda

and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us,

va aksincha. Bunday hollarda shimpanzelar ichki sezgimizni o'zimizga qarshi

and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

ishlatmoqda, chunki u kuchimiz bo'lish o'rniga kuchsizligimizga aylandi.

It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

Intuitsiyamiz bizning kuchli tarafimiz bo'lishi kerak

So how do we solve such problems?

emasmidi? Bu muammolarni qanday hal qilishimiz

First, we need to measure it,

mumkin? Dastlab, biz uning ko'lamini

and then we need to cure it.

aniqlashimiz, keyin munosib

So by measuring it we can understand

yechim topishimiz kerak. Muammo hajmini o'lchash bilan

what is the pattern of ignorance.

biz qanchalik bilimsiz ekanimizni tushunamiz.

We started the pilot last year,

So'rovnomalarni o'tgan yili

and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter

boshladik va endi butun dunyoda bilimsizlik

a lot of ignorance across the whole world,

odamlarni qanchalik zaharlayotganini bilib olyapmiz.

and the idea is really to

Asosiy g'oyamiz – uning ko'lamini aniqlash va xalqaro bilim va global

scale it up to all domains

rivojlanishning asosan qaysi sohalarida

or dimensions of global development,

uchratishimizni tushunish – xoh u iqlim o'zgarishi,

such as climate, endangered species, human rights,

yo'qolib ketayotgan turlar, inson huquqlari bo'lsin,

gender equality, energy, finance.

xoh gender tengligi, energetika yoki moliya.

All different sectors have facts,

Bu sohalarning barchasi faktlarga to'la

and there are organizations trying to spread

va bu faktlardan kishilarni

awareness about these facts.

xabardor qiluvchi tashkilotlar mavjud.

So I've started actually contacting some of them,

Men ularning bir nechtasi, jumladan,

like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,

Butunjahon Yovvoyi Tabiat Fondi, Xalqaro Amnistiya va YUNISEF

and asking them, what are your favorite facts

bilan bog'lanib, jamoatchilik bexabar bo'lgan eng

which you think the public doesn't know?

ajoyib faktlari qaysiligini so'radim.

Okay, I gather those facts.

O'sha faktlarni to'plab chiqdim.

Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.

250 ta faktdan iborat uzun ro'yxatni tasavvur qiling. Keyin biz odamlarga

And then we poll the public

ular to'g'risida savollar

and see where they score worst.

beramiz va qayerda bilimlari sustligini

So we get a shorter list

bilib olamiz. Faqat dahshatli

with the terrible results,

natijalar ko'rsatilgan

like some few examples from Hans,

savollar qisqa ro'yxatda qoladi, Hans sizga bergan

and we have no problem finding these kinds

savollar singari. Bunday natijali

of terrible results.

so'rovlarni aniqlash katta

Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

qiyinchilik tug'dirmaydi. Xo'sh, bu qisqa faktlar ro'yxatini

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,

nima qilamiz? Biz buni bilimlar sertifikatiga, dunyo haqidagi

a global knowledge certificate,

bilimlar sertifikatiga aylantiramiz.

which you can use, if you're a large organization,

Agar siz yirik tashkilot, maktab, universitet yoki

a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,

axborot agentligi bo'lsangiz, undan global bilimlardan voqif

to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

ekanligingizni tasdiqlashda foydalanishingiz mumkin. Shu tariqa

Basically meaning, we don't hire people

biz savollarga shimpanzega o'xshab javob beradigan xodimlarni

who score like chimpanzees.

yollamayotganimizga ishonch hosil qilamiz.

Of course you shouldn't.

Albatta, bunday qilmasligimiz kerak.

So maybe 10 years from now,

Ehtimol 10 yildan keyin, agar ushbu

if this project succeeds,

loyiha muvaffaqiyatli yakunlansa, siz

you will be sitting in an interview

ish uchun intervyuda o'tirib, dunyo haqidagi

having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

global bilimlaringizni sinovdan o'tkazishingiz kerak bo'ladi.

So now we come to the practical tricks.

Endi amaliy qismga o'tsak. Qanday qilib shuncha

How are you going to succeed?

ma'lumotni o'zlashtirish mumkin?

There is, of course, one way,

Buning usullaridan biri, albatta,

which is to sit down late nights

kechasi bilan

and learn all the facts by heart

barcha hisobotlarni o'qib,

by reading all these reports.

faktlarni yodlab chiqish.

That will never happen, actually.

Bu hech qanaqasiga ish bermaydi.

Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

Hatto Hans ham buni imkonsiz deb o'ylaydi. Odamlarning

People don't have that time.

bunga vaqti yetmaydi.

People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

Ularga qisqa yo'l yoqadi va mana u. Biz ichki sezgimizni

We need to turn our intuition into strength again.

yana o'z foydamizga ishlatishimiz, umumlashtirishni

We need to be able to generalize.

o'rganishimiz kerak.

So now I'm going to show you some tricks

Men sizga empirik qonuniyatlar orqali

where the misconceptions are turned around

yanglish tasavvurlarni fosh etishning

into rules of thumb.

bir qancha usullarini o'rgataman.

Let's start with the first misconception.

Birinchi eng keng tarqalgan

This is very widespread.

xato tushunchadan boshlasak:

Everything is getting worse.

atrofdagi hamma narsa yomonlashmoqda.

You heard it. You thought it yourself.

Bu haqda eshitgansiz, o'zingiz ham xuddi shunday o'ylagansiz.

The other way to think is, most things improve.

Boshqa o'ylash ham mumkin: ko'p narsalar yaxshilanmoqda.

So you're sitting with a question in front of you

Oldingizdagi savolga nima deb javob berishni

and you're unsure. You should guess "improve."

bilmaysiz. "Yaxshilanmoqda" degan javobni taxmin qilishingiz kerak.

Okay? Don't go for the worse.

Ijobiy variantni tanglang. Pessimist bo'lmang, bu

That will help you score better on our tests.

yaxshiroq natija ko'rsatishingizda yordam beradi.

(Applause)

(Qarsak)

That was the first one.

Bu birinchisi. Endi boy va kambag'allar masalasi.

There are rich and poor

Hamma ular o'rtasidagi tafovut

and the gap is increasing.

o'sib boryapti deb o'ylaydi.

It's a terrible inequality.

Dahshatli tengsizlikda yashaymiz.

Yeah, it's an unequal world,

Ha, dunyoda tengsizlik mavjud, lekin ma'lumot-

but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

-larga qarasangiz, birgina do'nglik mavjud.

Okay? If you feel unsure,

Agar ikkilansangiz,

go for "the most people are in the middle."

"ko'pchilik aholi o'rtamiyona" degan variantni tanglang.

That's going to help you get the answer right.

Bu to'g'ri javob berishingizga yordam

Now, the next preconceived idea is

beradi. Keyingi xato tushuncha quyidagicha:

first countries and people need to be very, very rich

davlatlar va odamlar ijtimoiy taraqqiyotga erishishi,

to get the social development

qizlarini maktabga yuborishi va tabiiy ofatlardan

like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

himoyalanishi uchun juda boy bo'lishlari kerak.

No, no, no. That's wrong.

Bu mutlaqo xato.

Look: that huge hump in the middle

O'rtadagi ulkan do'nglik qizlarning maktab

already have girls in school.

ta'limi allaqachon ta'minlanganini ko'rsatadi.

So if you are unsure, go for the

Agar ikkilansangiz, elektr quvvati va qizlar

"the majority already have this,"

ta'limi kabi savollar uchun

like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

"ko'pchilikda allaqachon bor" variantini tanlang.

They're only rules of thumb,

Bular empirik qonuniyatlar xolos, shuning uchun

so of course they don't apply to everything,

ularni hamma narsaga tadbiq etib bo'lmaydi, ammo

but this is how you can generalize.

siz shu tariqa umumlashtirishingiz

Let's look at the last one.

mumkin. So'nggi misolga to'xtalsak.

If something, yes, this is a good one,

Bu ajoyib misol:

sharks are dangerous.

akulalar xavfli.

No — well, yes, but they are not so important

Bu xato fikr, ya'ni ular xavfli,

in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

ammo xalqaro statistikada muhim ahamiyatga ega emas.

I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

Men ham akulalardan juda qo'rqaman.

So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of,

Sizga qo'rquv soladigan masalalar to'g'risida

which might be earthquakes, other religions,

savollarga ko'zingiz tushishi bilan,

maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks,

xoh zilzila, boshqa dinlar bo'lsin, xoh terroristlar

anything that makes me feel,

yoki akula,

assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

javobda ularni bo'rttirib yuborasiz.

That's a rule of thumb.

Bu Bosh barmoq qoidasi.

Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.

Xavfli narsalar ajoyib bo'lishi mumkin.

Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think.

Akulalar juda oz sonli kishilarni o'ldiradi. Siz mana shunday o'ylashingiz

With these four rules of thumb,

kerak. Ushbu to'rt qoidaga tayanib,

you could probably answer better than the chimps,

siz harqalay shimpanzelarga qaraganda yaxshiroq javob bersangiz kerak,

because the chimps cannot do this.

chunki ular bunday qilolmaydi.

They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

Ular bunday qoidalarni umumlashtira olmaydi.

And hopefully we can turn your world around

Umid qilamanki, dunyo haqidagi bilimlaringizni yaxshilay

and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

olasiz va kun kelib shimpanzelarni ortda qoldirasiz.

(Applause)

(Qarsak)

That's a systematic approach.

Bu tizimli yondashuv.

Now the question, is this important?

Bularning barchasi biz uchun qanchalar muhim?

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,

Ha, qashshoqlik, o'ta qashshoqlik nimaligini

extreme poverty and how to fight it,

va unga qarshi qanday kurashishni tushunish muhim, qizlarga

and how to bring girls in school.

qanday ta'lim berishni tushunish muhim.

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

Bu borada muvaffaqiyat qozonayotganimizni anglaganimizda, biz buni tushuib yetamiz.

But is it important for everyone else

Ammo aholining boy qatlami haqida

who cares about the rich end of this scale?

qayg'uruvchilar uchun bu muhimmi?

I would say yes, extremely important,

Ishonamanki, o'ta muhim,

for the same reason.

ayni o'sha sababga ko'ra.

If you have a fact-based worldview of today,

Agar dunyoqarashingiz faktlarga asoslangan bo'lsa,

you might have a chance to understand

kelajakda bizni nimalar

what's coming next in the future.

kutishi mumkinligini tushuna olasiz.

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

1975-yildagi ikkita do'nglikka qaytamiz.

That's when I was born,

Shu yili men tug'ilganman,

and I selected the West.

bu yerda G'arb

That's the current EU countries and North America.

Yevropa Ittifoqi mamlakatlari va Shimoliy Amerikani o'z ichiga oladi.

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares

Keling, boylik nuqtai nazaridan G'arb bilan

in terms of how rich you are.

qolgan dunyoni solishtirib ko'raylik.

These are the people who can afford

Bu dam olish uchun samolyotda

to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.

chet elga uchishga qurbi yetadigan kishilar.

In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived

1975-yilda ularning faqat 30 foizi

outside EU and North America.

Yevropa Ittifoqi va Shimoliy Amerikadan tashqarida yashagan.

But this has changed, okay?

Ammo bu holat hozir o'zgargan.

So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.

2014-yilgacha bo'lgan o'zgarishlarni ko'rib chiqsak.

Today it's 50/50.

Bugungi ko'rsatkich 50/50.

The Western domination is over, as of today.

G'arb hukmronligi orqada qoldi.

That's nice. So what's going to happen next?

Bu juda yaxshi. Endi nima bo'ladi?

Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?

Katta do'nglik va u qanday harakatlangani esingizdami?

I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.

Men kichik tajriba o'tkazdim. Xalqaro valyuta jamg'armasi veb-saytiga kirdim.

They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.

U yerda keyingi besh yilda YaIMning aholi jon boshiga qiymati prognozi joylangan.

So I can use that to go five years into the future,

Uni grafikda aks ettirib, mamlakatlarda

assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

daromad tengsizligi o'zgarishsiz qolishini ko'rsatishim mumkin.

I did that, but I went even further.

Ammo bu bilan cheklanib qolmadim.

I used those five years for the next 20 years

Rivojlanish tezligini o'zgartirmagan holda o'sha besh yillik

with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.

prognozni keyingi 20 yilga tadbiq qildim. Bu tajriba haqiqatga aylanishi mumkin.

Let's move into the future.

Kelajakka o'taylik.

In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.

2020-yilda bunday kishilarning 57 foizi YI va Amerikadan tashqarida yashaydi.

In 2025, 63 percent.

2025-yilda 63 foizi. 2030-yilda 68 foizi. 2035-yilga kelib

2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.

esa boshqa mamlakatlar boy iste'mol bozori bo'yicha G'arbni ortda qoldiradi.

Bu aholi jon boshiga YaIMning kelajakdagi prognozlari xolos.

Boy iste'molchilarning 73 foizi

These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.

Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers

Amerika va Yevropadan tashqarida yashaydi.

are going to live outside North America and Europe.

Kelajakda faktlarga asoslangan qarorlar qabul qilayotganiga ishonch

So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate

hosil qilishi uchun kompaniyalar mazkur sertifikatdan foydalansa,

to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.

yomon bo'lmasdi deb o'ylayman.

Thank you very much.

Katta rahmat.

(Applause)

(Qarsaklar)

Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!

Bruno Jussani: Hans va Ola Rosling