How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling

翻译人员: Lea Zhang 校对人员: Bighead Ge

Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you

汉斯·罗斯林：我会给你们做

three multiple choice questions.

三道多项选择题

Use this device. Use this device to answer.

用这个装置来回答

The first question is, how did the number

第一个问题是 在过去一个世纪里

of deaths per year

每年因自然灾害

from natural disaster,

死亡的人数

how did that change during the last century?

发生了怎样的变化

Did it more than double,

是翻倍了

did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,

还是在全世界范围内总体不变

or did it decrease to less than half?

还是下降了一半呢

Please answer A, B or C.

请选择A B 或C

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

我已经看到很多人回答了 这比我在大学里做的时候快得多

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

他们动作很慢 他们一直想啊 想啊

Oh, very, very good.

好 很好

And we go to the next question.

下一个问题

So how long did women 30 years old

在全世界范围内 30岁的女性的

in the world go to school:

受教育的年限是

seven years, five years or three years?

七年 五年还是三年

A, B or C? Please answer.

A B 还是C 请回答

And we go to the next question.

我们看下一个问题

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage

过去20年里

of people in the world

占世界人口多少百分比的人

who live in extreme poverty change?

生活在极端贫困中？

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

极端贫困指的是每天填不饱肚子

Did it almost double,

是几乎翻倍了

did it remain more or less the same,

还是基本维持不变

or did it halve?

还是减半了？

A, B or C?

A B 或 C

Now, answers.

现在 公布答案

You see,

如你所见

deaths from natural disasters in the world,

全球因自然灾害死亡的人数

you can see it from this graph here,

你可以从这幅图里看到

from 1900 to 2000.

从1900年到2000年

In 1900, there was about half a million people

1900年 每年有接近50万人

who died every year from natural disasters:

死于自然灾害

floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.

洪水 地震 火山喷发 其他 干旱

And then, how did that change?

然后 发生了怎样的变化呢

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.

Gapminder对瑞典公众进行了调查

This is how they answered.

他们是这样回答的

The Swedish public answered like this:

瑞典公众的回答是这样的

Fifty percent thought it had doubled,

50%的人认为翻倍了

38 percent said it's more or less the same,

38%的人认为没太大变化

12 said it had halved.

12%的人认为减半了

This is the best data from the disaster researchers,

对于灾害研究人员来说 这是最理想的数字

and it goes up and down,

然后上下有所浮动

and it goes to the Second World War,

然后到了二战

and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling

之后就开始一路下滑

and it's down to much less than half.

下降至远低于一半

The world has been much, much more capable

这个世界 相比数十年前而言

as the decades go by

在保护人们免受自然灾害方面

to protect people from this, you know.

的能力已经强了太多

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

只有12%的瑞典人知道这一点

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

所以我去了趟动物园 问了黑猩猩同样的问题

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑声)(掌声)

The chimps don't watch the evening news,

黑猩猩才不看晚间新闻

so the chimps,

所以它们

they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random.

是随机选择的 所以瑞典人的正确率还不如随机

Now how did you do?

现在来看看你们做的怎样？

That's you.

这是你们的答案

You were beaten by the chimps.

你们被黑猩猩打败了

(Laughter)

(笑声)

But it was close.

但很接近了

You were three times better than the Swedes,

你们的正确率比瑞典人高了三倍

but that's not enough.

但这还不够

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

你们不应该拿自己跟瑞典人比

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

你们对于世界的野心肯定不止于此

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

来看下一个答案 女性所受的学校教育

Here, you can see men went eight years.

这里 你可以看到男性是八年

How long did women go to school?

女性所受的学校教育年限是？

Well, we asked the Swedes like this,

瑞典人是这么回答的

and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

你从这里能总结出规律了 是吧

The right answer is probably the one

正确的答案很可能是

the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?

最少瑞典人选择的那个 对吧

(Laughter)

(笑声)

Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

咱们来看看 开始

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

没错 没错 女性几乎赶上了

This is the U.S. public.

这是美国公众的选择

And this is you. Here you come.

然后这里是你们的选择 请看

Ooh.

噢

Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes,

祝贺大家 你们的正确率比瑞典人高一倍

but you don't need me —

但是你们不需要我来

So how come? I think it's like this,

怎么会这样？ 我想这是因为

that everyone is aware that there are countries

大家都知道在有些国家

and there are areas

有些地区

where girls have great difficulties.

女孩子们依然处于巨大的困境之中

They are stopped when they go to school,

她们不被允许去学校

and it's disgusting.

这是令人无法接受的

But in the majority of the world,

但是在世界上的大部分地方

where most people in the world live,

在大部分人生活的地区

most countries, girls today go to school

绝大多数国家 女孩子们上学的时间

as long as boys, more or less.

和男孩子们一样长 或多或少

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved,

这并不意味着男女平等已经实现了

not at all.

完全不是

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,

她们依然受到许多严重的束缚

but schooling is there in the world today.

但学校教育已经成为了主流

Now, we miss the majority.

现在 我们忽略了大多数情形

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places,

当你回答问题时 你以最差的情形为依据

and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

这并不意味着你错了 但是你把大多数情形给忽略了

What about poverty?

关于贫困呢？

Well, it's very clear that poverty here

非常明显

was almost halved,

贫困率几乎减半

and in U.S., when we asked the public,

然而在美国 但我们向公众提问时

only five percent got it right.

只有5%的人回答正确

And you?

那你们呢？

Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

差一点就跟黑猩猩一样了

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑声)(掌声)

That little, just a few of you!

一点点 就差你们中的一小部分人！

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

先入为主的观念是一定存在的

And many in the rich countries,

很多富裕国家都认为

they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

我们永远无法消除极端贫困

Of course they think so,

他们当然是这么认为的

because they don't even know what has happened.

因为他们根本不知道发生了些什么

The first thing to think about the future

想要预知未来

is to know about the present.

必须先了解现在

These questions were a few of the first ones

以上这些问题是由我们负责的Gapminder基金会

in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project

在"无知项目"的试运行阶段

in Gapminder Foundation that we run,

所提出的问题中的一部分

and it was started, this project, last year

这个项目是在去年 由我的老板

by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)

同时也是我的儿子 奥拉·罗斯林启动的 (笑声)

He's cofounder and director,

他是联合创始人兼总监

and he wanted, Ola told me

并且他想要 奥拉告诉我

we have to be more systematic

我们在对抗惊人的无知的战斗中

when we fight devastating ignorance.

需要更具有系统性

So already the pilots reveal this,

试运行结果已经表明

that so many in the public score worse than random,

有许多公众的得分比随机选择还要低

so we have to think about preconceived ideas,

所以我们不得不对那些先入为主的观点进行思考

and one of the main preconceived ideas

其中一个主要的观点是

is about world income distribution.

关于世界上的收入分配

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

看这个 这是1975年的数据

It's the number of people on each income,

是人均收入的数值

from one dollar a day —

从每天一美元

(Applause)

(掌声)

See, there was one hump here,

看 这里有一个高峰

around one dollar a day,

在每天一美元左右

and then there was one hump here

然后这里还有一个高峰

somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

大约在10到100美元之间

The world was two groups.

世界上有两大群体

It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,

像骆驼一样 有两个驼峰

the poor ones and the rich ones,

穷人和富人

and there were fewer in between.

介于两者之间的人较少

But look how this has changed:

但是我们来看看数字是如何变化的

As I go forward, what has changed,

随着时间推移 发生了什么样的变化

the world population has grown,

随着世界人口的增长

and the humps start to merge.

两个驼峰开始合并

The lower humps merged with the upper hump,

低的驼峰向高的驼峰融合

and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world

骆驼死了 然后我们得到了一头新的单峰骆驼

with one hump only.

只有一个驼峰

The percent in poverty has decreased.

贫困人口的比例减少了

Still it's appalling

但是依然很惊人

that so many remain in extreme poverty.

有这么多人仍然生活在极端贫困中

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,

大概还有接近10亿人

but that can be ended now.

但这是可以被终结的

The challenge we have now

我们现在所面临的挑战是

is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

如何摆脱这些观念 去了解大多数人的处境

and that is very clearly shown in this question.

这一点在以下问题中得到了充分的体现

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's

问 世界上有多少比例的一岁儿童

one-year-old children who have got those

接种了那些我们已经使用了多年的

basic vaccines against measles and other things

对抗麻疹以及其他疾病的

that we have had for many years:

疫苗

20, 50 or 80 percent?

百分之20 50 还是80?

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

这是美国和瑞典公众的回答

Look at the Swedish result:

看看瑞典的结果

you know what the right answer is.

你就该知道正确的答案是什么了

(Laughter)

(笑声)

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

该国有个搞全球健康研究的教授 是谁

Well, it's me. It's me.

好吧 是我

(Laughter)

(笑声)

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

这非常难 非常困难

(Applause)

(掌声)

However, Ola's approach

然而 奥拉用于

to really measure what we know made headlines,

测量我们所知多少的方法 上了头条

and CNN published these results on their web

CNN在网站上公布了调查结果

and they had the questions there, millions answered,

有几百万人回答了这些问题

and I think there were about 2,000 comments,

然后我记得大概有两千多条评论

and this was one of the comments.

其中一条是这么说的

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

"我打赌新闻界没人能通过这个测试" 他说

So Ola told me, "Take these devices.

然后奥拉跟我说"带上这些设备

You are invited to media conferences.

你被邀请参加的是媒体圈的会议

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

分给他们 然后测一测新闻界知道多少"

And ladies and gentlemen,

女士们 先生们

for the first time, the informal results

首先 是来自一场美国媒体会议上的

from a conference with U.S. media.

非正式结果

And then, lately, from the European Union media.

之后 是来自欧盟媒体的

(Laughter)

(笑声)

You see, the problem is not that people

大家看 问题并不在于

don't read and listen to the media.

人们不读或者不听新闻

The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

问题在于连媒体自己都不知道

What shall we do about this, Ola?

我们对此该怎么办呢 奥拉?

Do we have any ideas?

有什么主意吗?

(Applause)

(掌声)

Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,

奥拉·罗斯林：是的 我有个主意 但首先

I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

对于你们被黑猩猩打败 我表示很抱歉

Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you

幸运的是 我有办法安慰你们

by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

因为其实这不是你们的错

Then, I will equip you with some tricks

然后 我会给你们提供一些窍门

for beating the chimps in the future.

以便你们以后能够打败黑猩猩

That's basically what I will do.

我接下去会做的基本就是这些

But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant,

首先 来看看为什么我们会如此的无知

and it all starts in this place.

一切都始于这个地方

It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

这是胡迪克斯瓦尔 瑞典北部的一座城市

It's a neighborhood where I grew up,

我在这个地方长大

and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

这个地方有着一个很大的问题

Actually, it has exactly the same problem

实际上 这个地方

which existed in all the neighborhoods

跟你们从小所居住的那些地方

where you grew up as well.

存在着一模一样的问题

It was not representative. Okay?

那就是不具备典型性

It gave me a very biased view

他让我对于“其他人是如何生活的”

of how life is on this planet.

的看法是带有很强烈的偏见的

So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.

所以这是“无知拼图”的第一块

We have a personal bias.

我们有个人偏见

We have all different experiences

我们在各自的社区 和我们所遇见的人身上

from communities and people we meet,

所获得经验都是不同的

and on top of this, we start school,

在此之上 我们还会上学

and we add the next problem.

这就带来了下一个问题

Well, I like schools,

当然 我喜欢学校

but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

但老师们倾向于教授过时的世界观

because they learned something when they went to school,

因为这些东西是他们上学的时候学到的

and now they describe this world to the students

现在 尽管不带有任何的恶意

without any bad intentions,

他们又将这些知识教给了学生

and those books, of course, that are printed

还有书 在这个瞬息万变的世界里

are outdated in a world that changes.

那些印刷出来的书 当然也是过时的

And there is really no practice

并且没有一个有效的措施

to keep the teaching material up to date.

能使教材与时俱进

So that's what we are focusing on.

所以这就是我们的关注点

So we have these outdated facts

我们知道的是过时的情况

added on top of our personal bias.

加上我们的个人偏见

What happens next is news, okay?

接下去就是新闻了 对吧？

An excellent journalist knows how to pick

一个杰出的记者很清楚

the story that will make headlines,

要如何选题才能上头条

and people will read it because it's sensational.

人们之所以会看是因为它耸人听闻

Unusual events are more interesting, no?

不寻常的事件才更有意思 不是吗？

And they are exaggerated,

然后他们会夸大其词

and especially things we're afraid of.

尤其是那些令我们害怕的事情

A shark attack on a Swedish person

一名瑞典人遭到鲨鱼的攻击

will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

这类新闻会在瑞典媒体上保持头条几星期

So these three skewed sources of information

我们很难摆脱

were really hard to get away from.

这三类歪曲的消息来源

They kind of bombard us

它们对我们狂轰滥炸

and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,

并且用许多奇怪的观点武装来我们的思维

and on top of it we put the very thing

在此基础上 再加上一项人类独特的功能

that makes us humans, our human intuition.

我们的直觉

It was good in evolution.

直觉对进化是有利的

It helped us generalize

它帮助我们很快的进行

and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

归纳和总结

It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,

帮助我们夸大我们所惧之事

and we seek causality where there is none,

当所惧之事没有发生时 我们就会寻找其中的因果关系

and we then get an illusion of confidence

然后我们会获得莫名的自信

where we believe that we are the best car drivers,

比如我们都自信自己是最好的司机

above the average.

高于平均水平

Everybody answered that question,

每个人都会回答：

"Yeah, I drive cars better."

没错 我的车开的更好

Okay, this was good evolutionarily,

好吧 这对进化来说是件好事

but now when it comes to the worldview,

但是 当涉及到世界观时

it is the exact reason why it's upside down.

这恰恰是导致结论颠倒的原因

The trends that are increasing are instead falling,

有些趋势在上升而不是下降

and the other way around,

有些则相反

and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us,

在这个例子中 黑猩猩利用我们的直觉打败了我们

and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

并且这逐渐成为了我们的弱点 而不是优势

It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

这应该是我们的优势所在的 不是吗？

So how do we solve such problems?

那么我们该如何解决这类问题呢？

First, we need to measure it,

首先 我们要进行衡量

and then we need to cure it.

然后我们再来纠正

So by measuring it we can understand

这里指的衡量 是我们能够明白

what is the pattern of ignorance.

造成无知的规律是什么

We started the pilot last year,

试运行是去年启动的

and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter

现在我们很肯定的是 在全球范围内

a lot of ignorance across the whole world,

我们对许多东西是无知的

and the idea is really to

我们的想法是

scale it up to all domains

将此扩展到关系到全球发展的所有领域

or dimensions of global development,

或者维度

such as climate, endangered species, human rights,

比如气候 濒危物种 人权

gender equality, energy, finance.

性别平等 能源 金融

All different sectors have facts,

每个行业都会有一些真相

and there are organizations trying to spread

并有一些组织正在努力扩大

awareness about these facts.

大众对于这些真相的认知度

So I've started actually contacting some of them,

所以我联系了其中的一些

like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,

像世界自然基金会 国际特赦组织 和联合国儿童基金会

and asking them, what are your favorite facts

我问他们 “有哪些你们所熟知的事

which you think the public doesn't know?

你认为公众是不知道的？”

Okay, I gather those facts.

好了 我收集到了如下事实

Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.

想像一下 一张很长的清单 大概列举了250项

And then we poll the public

然后我们对公众进行调查

and see where they score worst.

由此知道哪些项目得分是最低的

So we get a shorter list

然后我们获得了一个短一点的清单

with the terrible results,

其结果令人震惊

like some few examples from Hans,

比如之前汉斯给出的一些例子

and we have no problem finding these kinds

我们可以轻而易举的给出

of terrible results.

这类令人震惊的结果

Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

好了 对于这张短一点的清单 我们可以做些什么？

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,

我们把它变成了一张“知识证书”

a global knowledge certificate,

一张全球知识证书 可供你使用的

which you can use, if you're a large organization,

如果你是一个大型组织

a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,

一所学校 大学 或者新闻通讯社

to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

用来验证你自己具有全球化的知识体系

Basically meaning, we don't hire people

本质上来说 我们不会聘用

who score like chimpanzees.

那些得分和黑猩猩一样高的人

Of course you shouldn't.

当然 你也不应该

So maybe 10 years from now,

所以也许10年之后

if this project succeeds,

如果这个项目获得成功

you will be sitting in an interview

你将不得不在面试中

having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

写出这些全球知识

So now we come to the practical tricks.

现在我们来谈谈实用的技巧

How are you going to succeed?

要如何才能做到？

There is, of course, one way,

当然 有一种方法

which is to sit down late nights

就是你通宵达旦的

and learn all the facts by heart

阅读各种报告

by reading all these reports.

并把所有的知识点都记在心里

That will never happen, actually.

实际上 这是不可能发生的

Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

连汉斯都不会相信这种事情会发生

People don't have that time.

人们没那么多时间

People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

人们喜欢捷径 现在 捷径来了

We need to turn our intuition into strength again.

我们要再次把我们的直觉变成一种优势

We need to be able to generalize.

我们要有能力去概括

So now I'm going to show you some tricks

现在我会给向家展示一些技巧

where the misconceptions are turned around

以此将误解转变成为

into rules of thumb.

指导意见

Let's start with the first misconception.

我们从第一个误解开始

This is very widespread.

这是一个广泛流传的误解

Everything is getting worse.

所有的事都在朝更坏的方向发展

You heard it. You thought it yourself.

你听说过 你自己也是这么想的

The other way to think is, most things improve.

从另一个角度想一想 其实大多数事情都在变好

So you're sitting with a question in front of you

所以当你面前出现了一个问题

and you're unsure. You should guess "improve."

而你不太确定答案时 你应该猜“进步”

Okay? Don't go for the worse.

好吗？ 别选坏的那个

That will help you score better on our tests.

这会帮助你在我们的测试中获得更高的分数

(Applause)

(掌声)

That was the first one.

这是第一点

There are rich and poor

穷人和富人之间的

and the gap is increasing.

贫富差距正在拉大

It's a terrible inequality.

非常的不平等

Yeah, it's an unequal world,

是的 这是个不平等的世界

but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

但是当你对照数据时 会发现只有一个驼峰

Okay? If you feel unsure,

对吗？ 所以如果你觉得不确定

go for "the most people are in the middle."

就选“大部分人在中间”

That's going to help you get the answer right.

这会帮助你正确的回答问题

Now, the next preconceived idea is

现在 下一个先入为主的观点是

first countries and people need to be very, very rich

发达国家和人民需要在非常富裕的情况下

to get the social development

社会才能得以发展

like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

例如让女孩子上学 或者抵御自然灾害

No, no, no. That's wrong.

不不不 这是错误的

Look: that huge hump in the middle

看 处于中间的那一大块驼峰

already have girls in school.

已经解决了女孩上学的问题

So if you are unsure, go for the

所以如果你不确定 就选

"the majority already have this,"

”大部分已经实现了“

like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

例如电力 女性教育 这一类的问题

They're only rules of thumb,

这些只是指导意见

so of course they don't apply to everything,

所以并不适用于所有情况

but this is how you can generalize.

但这能帮你进行总结概括

Let's look at the last one.

我们来看看最后一个

If something, yes, this is a good one,

如果有什么 没错 这张照片很赞

sharks are dangerous.

鲨鱼很危险

No — well, yes, but they are not so important

其实不是 话虽不错 但是没那么严重

in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

从全球的数据来看 这是我想说的

I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

其实 我本人非常害怕鲨鱼

So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of,

当我看到那些关于我所害怕的东西的提问时

which might be earthquakes, other religions,

比如地震 其他宗教

maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks,

比如我害怕恐怖分子和鲨鱼

anything that makes me feel,

任何让我感到害怕的东西

assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

你很有可能会夸大问题的严重性

That's a rule of thumb.

这是指导意见之一

Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.

当然 有些危险的事物确实会造成严重的后果

Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think.

因鲨鱼致死的人非常少 这才是你应有的思维方式

With these four rules of thumb,

有了以上四条技巧

you could probably answer better than the chimps,

你很有可能会取得比黑猩猩更好的成绩

because the chimps cannot do this.

因为黑猩猩无法做到这些

They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

他们无法总结概括这些技巧

And hopefully we can turn your world around

希望我们能够改变你的世界

and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

然后我们一起来打败黑猩猩 好吗

(Applause)

（掌声）

That's a systematic approach.

这是一个系统的方法

Now the question, is this important?

那么现在问题来了 这很重要吗

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,

是的 这对理解贫穷

extreme poverty and how to fight it,

极端贫穷 以及如何与之斗争很重要

and how to bring girls in school.

以及如何让女孩子们上学

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

当意识到这些问题实际正在改善时 我们才能理解这些问题本身

但是 会有人在意处于富裕一端的人吗

But is it important for everyone else

who cares about the rich end of this scale?

这很重要吗

I would say yes, extremely important,

我想说是的 非常非常重要

for the same reason.

同样的理由

If you have a fact-based worldview of today,

如果你对当今世界的认知是基于事实的

you might have a chance to understand

那么你才可能会有机会去预测

what's coming next in the future.

将来会发生什么

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

我们回过头来看1975年的这两个峰值

That's when I was born,

也就是我刚出生的时候

and I selected the West.

我选择了西方国家

That's the current EU countries and North America.

也就是现在的欧盟和北美国家

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares

我们来看看其他地区和西方国家的比较

in terms of how rich you are.

关于富裕程度

These are the people who can afford

这些是能够负担得起

to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.

坐飞机出国度假的人

In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived

1975年的时候 只有30%的人

outside EU and North America.

是住在欧盟和北美以外的地区

But this has changed, okay?

但是情况已经变了

So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.

首先 我们来看看当今的情况 2014年

Today it's 50/50.

现在是一半一半

The Western domination is over, as of today.

西方国家的统治在当今已经不复存在了

That's nice. So what's going to happen next?

很好 那么接下去会发生什么呢？

Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?

你看到那个高峰了吗？ 你看到它是如何变化的吗？

I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.

我做了一个小试验 我查看了国际货币基金组织的网站

They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.

他们对今后五年的GDP做了一个预测

So I can use that to go five years into the future,

所以我可以借此来推测未来5年的变化

assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

假设各国的贫富差距保持不变

I did that, but I went even further.

除此以外 我还做了进一步的预测

I used those five years for the next 20 years

我用未来5年的数据对未来20年做了预测

with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.

同样的变化速度 就像一个实际很可能会发生的试验一样

Let's move into the future.

让我们移步未来

In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.

2020年 57%来自非西方国家

In 2025, 63 percent.

2025年 63%

2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.

2030年 68% 到了2035年 西方国家在富裕消费者市场中的比例被赶超

These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.

这些仅仅是针对未来的GDP所作出的推测

Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers

73%的富裕消费者

are going to live outside North America and Europe.

将居住在北美和欧洲以外的地区

So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate

所以没错 我认为公司应该用“知识证书”

to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.

来确保未来能作出基于事实的决策

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）

Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!