How not to be ignorant about the world | Hans and Ola Rosling

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Hans Rosling: I'm going to ask you

Hans Rosling: Pitat ću vas

three multiple choice questions.

tri pitanja s više ponuđenih odgovora.

Use this device. Use this device to answer.

Koristite ovaj uređaj. Koristite ovaj uređaj za odgovaranje.

The first question is, how did the number

Prvo pitanje je, kako se broj

of deaths per year

smrti u godini

from natural disaster,

od prirodnih katastrofa,

how did that change during the last century?

kako se promijenio tijekom zadnjeg stoljeća?

Did it more than double,

Je li se poduplao,

did it remain about the same in the world as a whole,

je li ostao isti u cijelome svijetu,

or did it decrease to less than half?

ili se smanjio za pola?

Please answer A, B or C.

Molim odgovorite A, B ili C.

I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

Vidim mnogo odgovora. Ovo ide brže nego na fakultetu.

They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

Oni su spori. Razmišljaju, razmišljaju, razmišljaju.

Oh, very, very good.

Jako, jako dobro.

And we go to the next question.

Idemo na sljedeće pitanje.

So how long did women 30 years old

Koliko su dugo žene stare 30 godina

in the world go to school:

išle u školu:

seven years, five years or three years?

sedam godina, pet godina ili tri godine?

A, B or C? Please answer.

A, B ili C? Molim vas, odgovorite.

And we go to the next question.

I idemo na sljedeće pitanje.

In the last 20 years, how did the percentage

U zadnjih dvadeset godina, kako se promijenio

of people in the world

postotak ljudi u svijetu

who live in extreme poverty change?

koji žive u ekstremnom siromaštvu?

Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day.

Ekstremno siromaštvo — neimanje dovoljno hrane za dan.

Did it almost double,

Je li se poduplao,

did it remain more or less the same,

je li ostao više-manje isti,

or did it halve?

ili se prepolovio?

A, B or C?

A, B ili C?

Now, answers.

Odgovorite.

You see,

Vidite,

deaths from natural disasters in the world,

smrti od prirodnih katastrofa u svijetu,

you can see it from this graph here,

možete to vidjeti na ovom grafu

from 1900 to 2000.

od 1900. do 2000.

In 1900, there was about half a million people

1900. oko pola milijuna ljudi

who died every year from natural disasters:

je umiralo svake godine od prirodnih katastrofa:

floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts.

poplava, potresa, vulkanskih erupcija, štogod, suša.

And then, how did that change?

A sad, kako se to promjenilo?

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden.

Gapminder je pitao javnost Švedske.

This is how they answered.

Odgovorili su ovako.

The Swedish public answered like this:

Javnost Švedske je odgovorila ovako:

Fifty percent thought it had doubled,

Pedeset posto misli da se udvostručio,

38 percent said it's more or less the same,

38 posto kaže da je uglavnom isti,

12 said it had halved.

12 kaže da se prepolovio.

This is the best data from the disaster researchers,

Ovo su najbolji podatci istraživača nesreća,

and it goes up and down,

penju se i spuštaju,

and it goes to the Second World War,

penju se do Drugog svjetskog rata,

and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling

i poslije toga počinju opadati i nastavljaju padati

and it's down to much less than half.

i spustili su se na puno manje od pola.

The world has been much, much more capable

Svijet je postao više sposoban,

as the decades go by

kako desetljeća prolaze,

to protect people from this, you know.

zaštititi ljude od ovoga, znate.

So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

Samo 12 posto Švedske zna ovo.

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

Otišao sam u zoološki i pitao čimpanze.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smijeh) (Pljesak)

The chimps don't watch the evening news,

Čimpanze ne gledaju večernje vijesti,

so the chimps,

pa su čimpanze,

they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random.

odgovarali su nasumično, pa je odgovor Šveđana gori no nasumičan.

Now how did you do?

Kako ste vi odgovorili?

That's you.

Ovo ste vi.

You were beaten by the chimps.

Pobijedile su vas čimpanze.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But it was close.

Ali bili ste blizu.

You were three times better than the Swedes,

Bili ste tri puta bolji od Šveđana,

but that's not enough.

ali to nije dovoljno.

You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

Ne bi ste se trebali uspoređivati sa Šveđanima.

You must have higher ambitions in the world.

Trebate imati više ambicije u svijetu.

Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

Pogledajmo sljedeći odgovor: žene u školama.

Here, you can see men went eight years.

Možete vidjeti da su muškarci išli osam godina.,

How long did women go to school?

Koliko dugo su žene išle u školu?

Well, we asked the Swedes like this,

Pitali smo Šveđane isto to,

and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

i to vam već pomaže, zar ne?

The right answer is probably the one

Točan odgovor je vjerojatno onaj

the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it?

koji je odabralo najmanje Šveđana, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

Hajdemo vidjeti. Evo ga.

Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

Da, da, da, žene su skoro sustigle.

This is the U.S. public.

Ovo je javnost SAD-a.

And this is you. Here you come.

A ovo ste vi. Evo vas.

Ooh.

Ooh.

Well, congratulations, you're twice as good as the Swedes,

Pa, čestitam, dvaput ste bolji no Šveđani,

but you don't need me —

ali ne trebam vam ja —

So how come? I think it's like this,

Otkud to? Mislim da je to ovako,

that everyone is aware that there are countries

svi su svjesni da postoje države

and there are areas

i postoje regije

where girls have great difficulties.

gdje djevojke imaju puno poteškoća.

They are stopped when they go to school,

Prekida se njihovo školovanje,

and it's disgusting.

i to je odvratno.

But in the majority of the world,

Ali u većini svijeta,

where most people in the world live,

gdje živi većina ljudi,

most countries, girls today go to school

većina država, djevojke idu u školu

as long as boys, more or less.

jednako koliko i dečki, više-manje.

That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved,

To ne znači da je postignuta jednakost spolova,

not at all.

ni najmanje.

They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations,

I dalje postoje grozna ograničenja,

but schooling is there in the world today.

ali školovanje je danas rašireno po svijetu.

Now, we miss the majority.

Nedostaje nam većina.

When you answer, you answer according to the worst places,

Kada odgovarate, odgovarate prema najgorim mjestima

and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

i što se njih tiče, u pravu ste, ali promašili smo većinu.

What about poverty?

Što je sa siromaštvom?

Well, it's very clear that poverty here

Očigledno je da je siromaštvo ovdje

was almost halved,

skoro pa prepolovljeno,

and in U.S., when we asked the public,

pitali smo javnost u SAD-u,

only five percent got it right.

samo pet posto je točno odgovorilo.

And you?

A vi?

Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

Skoro pa ste dosegli čimpanze.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smijeh) (Pljesak)

That little, just a few of you!

Ovako malo, samo nekoliko vas!

There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

Postoje unaprijed stvorene ideje, znate.

And many in the rich countries,

Mnogi u bogatim zemljama,

they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

misle da ne možemo zaustaviti ekstremno siromaštvo.

Of course they think so,

Naravno da to misle

because they don't even know what has happened.

jer čak ni ne znaju sto se dogodilo.

The first thing to think about the future

Prva stvar kada razmišljamo o budućnosti

is to know about the present.

je da znamo sadašnjost.

These questions were a few of the first ones

Ovo je bilo nekoliko prvih pitanja

in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project

početne faze projekta Neznanje

in Gapminder Foundation that we run,

u Gapminder Fondaciji koju vodimo,

and it was started, this project, last year

a započeo je, ovaj projekt, prošle godine

by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. (Laughter)

moj šef, koji je također moj sin, Ola Rosling. (Smijeh)

He's cofounder and director,

On je suosnivač i direktor,

and he wanted, Ola told me

i htio je, Ola mi je rekao

we have to be more systematic

da moramo biti više sistematični

when we fight devastating ignorance.

kada se borimo protiv velike neupućenosti.

So already the pilots reveal this,

Zasad je projekt pokazao ovo,

that so many in the public score worse than random,

javnost odgovara gore nego nasumično

so we have to think about preconceived ideas,

pa moramo razmišljati o unaprijed stvorenim idejama,

and one of the main preconceived ideas

a jedna od glavnih unaprijed stvorenih ideja

is about world income distribution.

je o rasprostranjenosti prihoda u svijetu.

Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

Pogledajte. Ovako je bilo 1975.

It's the number of people on each income,

To je broj ljudi po svakom prihodu,

from one dollar a day —

od jednog dolara po danu —

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

See, there was one hump here,

Vidite, postoji jedno brdo ovdje,

around one dollar a day,

oko jednog dolara po danu,

and then there was one hump here

i onda postoji jedno brdo ovdje

somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

negdje između 10 i 100 dolara.

The world was two groups.

Svijet je bio podijeljen u dvije grupe.

It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps,

Svijet je bio poput deve, deve s dvije grbe,

the poor ones and the rich ones,

siromašni i bogati,

and there were fewer in between.

i bilo ih je manje između.

But look how this has changed:

Pogledajte kako se to promijenilo:

As I go forward, what has changed,

Kako idem naprijed, što se promijenilo

the world population has grown,

svjetska populacija je narasla,

and the humps start to merge.

i grbe su se počele spajati.

The lower humps merged with the upper hump,

Donja grba se spojila s gornjom grbom,

and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world

i deva je umrla i sad imamo svijet

with one hump only.

samo s jednom grbom.

The percent in poverty has decreased.

Postotak siromaštva se smanjio.

Still it's appalling

I dalje je grozno to

that so many remain in extreme poverty.

što toliko ostaje u ekstremnom siromaštvu.

We still have this group, almost a billion, over there,

I dalje imamo grupu, skoro pa milijardu, ovdje.

but that can be ended now.

ali to se može odmah prekinuti.

The challenge we have now

Izazov koji sada imamo

is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

je odmaći se od toga, raumijeti gdje je većina

and that is very clearly shown in this question.

i to se lijepo prikazuje u ovom pitanju.

We asked, what is the percentage of the world's

Pitali smo koliki je postotak jednogodišnje djece

one-year-old children who have got those

u svijetu koji su dobili

basic vaccines against measles and other things

osnovna cjepiva protiv ospica i drugih stvari

that we have had for many years:

koje imamo već godinama:

20, 50 or 80 percent?

20,50 ili 80 posto?

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

Ovo je odgovorila javnost SAD-a i Švedske.

Look at the Swedish result:

Pogledajte švedske rezultate:

you know what the right answer is.

znate koji je točan odgovor.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

Tko je profesor globalnog zdravlja tamo?

Well, it's me. It's me.

Pa, ja sam. Ja sam.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

Vrlo je teško, ovo. Vrlo je teško.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

However, Ola's approach

Međutim, Olov pristup

to really measure what we know made headlines,

da stvarno izmjerimo što znamo dosegao je naslovnice,

and CNN published these results on their web

CNN je objavio ove rezultate na njihovoj stranici

and they had the questions there, millions answered,

i postavili su pitanja tamo, milijuni su odgovorili,

and I think there were about 2,000 comments,

i mislim da je bilo oko 2000 komentara,

and this was one of the comments.

a ovo je jedan od komentara.

"I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

„Kladim se da nijedan član medija nije prošao test,“ rekao je.

So Ola told me, "Take these devices.

Ola mi je rekao, „Uzmi ove uređaje.

You are invited to media conferences.

Pozvan si na konferenciju za medije.

Give it to them and measure what the media know."

Daj ih im i izmjeri što mediji znaju.“

And ladies and gentlemen,

I dame i gospodo,

for the first time, the informal results

po prvi put, neslužbeni rezultati

from a conference with U.S. media.

s konferencije za medije SAD-a.

And then, lately, from the European Union media.

A onda kasnije, za medije Europske Unije.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

You see, the problem is not that people

Vidite, problem nije u tome da ljudi

don't read and listen to the media.

ne čitaju i slušaju medije.

The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

Problem je u tome što mediji ni sami ne znaju.

What shall we do about this, Ola?

Što bi smo trebali učiniti, Ola?

Do we have any ideas?

Imamo li kakvih ideja?

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first,

Ola Rosling: Da, imam ideja, ali prvo,

I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

žao mi je što vas je čimpanza pobijedila.

Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you

Srećom, mogu vas utješiti

by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

pokazujući vam da nije vaša krivica, zapravo.

Then, I will equip you with some tricks

Onda, snabdjet ću vas s nekim trikovima

for beating the chimps in the future.

kako pobijediti čimpanze ubuduće.

That's basically what I will do.

U osnovi to ću napraviti.

But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant,

Ali prvo, pogledajmo zašto smo tako neupućeni,

and it all starts in this place.

a sve počinje na ovom mjestu.

It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

To je Hudiksvall. To je grad u sjevernoj Švedskoj.

It's a neighborhood where I grew up,

To je susjedstvo u kojem sam odrastao,

and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

i to je susjedstvo s velikim problemom.

Actually, it has exactly the same problem

Zapravo, ima upravo isti problem

which existed in all the neighborhoods

koji postoji u svim susjedstvima

where you grew up as well.

gdje ste i vi odrasli.

It was not representative. Okay?

Nije reprezentativno. Dobro?

It gave me a very biased view

Dalo mi je pristran pogled

of how life is on this planet.

o životu na ovom planetu.

So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle.

To je prvi djelić puzle neupućenosti.

We have a personal bias.

Imamo osobnu pristranost.

We have all different experiences

Stekli smo različita iskustva

from communities and people we meet,

kroz društva i ljude koje smo sreli,

and on top of this, we start school,

i povrh svega, krećemo u školu,

and we add the next problem.

i dodajemo sljedeći problem.

Well, I like schools,

Volim škole,

but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

ali učitelji uče zastarjele svjetonazore

because they learned something when they went to school,

jer naučili su nešto dok su išli u školu,

and now they describe this world to the students

i sad opisuju taj svijet učenicima

without any bad intentions,

bez zlih namjera,

and those books, of course, that are printed

a te knjige, naravno, koje su tiskane

are outdated in a world that changes.

su zastarjele u svijetu koji se mijenja,

And there is really no practice

I ne postoji zapravo praksa

to keep the teaching material up to date.

koja nastavne materijale održava novima.

So that's what we are focusing on.

Na to se mi fokusiramo.

So we have these outdated facts

Imamo te zastarjele činjenice

added on top of our personal bias.

dodane našim osobnim pristranostima.

What happens next is news, okay?

Sljedeće su vijesti, dobro?

An excellent journalist knows how to pick

Odličan novinar zna kako odabrati

the story that will make headlines,

vijest koja će doći na naslovnice,

and people will read it because it's sensational.

a ljudi će ju čitati jer je senzacija.

Unusual events are more interesting, no?

Neobični događaji su zanimljiviji, zar ne?

And they are exaggerated,

A oni su preuveličani,

and especially things we're afraid of.

posebno stvari kojih se bojimo.

A shark attack on a Swedish person

Napad morskog psa na Šveđana

will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

bi u Švedskoj ostao na naslovnicama tjednima.

So these three skewed sources of information

Od ova tri iskrivljena izvora informacija

were really hard to get away from.

teško je pobjeći.

They kind of bombard us

Na neki način nas bombardiraju

and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas,

i snabdjevaju naš um s mnogo čudnih ideja,

and on top of it we put the very thing

a povrh svega stavljamo ono što

that makes us humans, our human intuition.

nas čini ljudima, našu ljudsku intuiciju.

It was good in evolution.

Bila je dobra tijekom evolucije.

It helped us generalize

Pomogla nam je generalizirati

and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

i doći do zaključaka vrlo, vrlo brzo.

It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of,

Pomogla nam je preuveličati ono čeg se bojimo,

and we seek causality where there is none,

i tražiti uzročnost tamo gdje je nema,

and we then get an illusion of confidence

i tada dobijemo iluziju pouzdanja

where we believe that we are the best car drivers,

gdje vjerujemo da smo najbolji vozač auta,

above the average.

iznad prosjeka.

Everybody answered that question,

Svi odgovaraju na pitanje,

"Yeah, I drive cars better."

„Da, vozim bolje auto.“

Okay, this was good evolutionarily,

Dobro, to je bilo korisno evolucijski,

but now when it comes to the worldview,

ali sada kada se tiče svjetonazora,

it is the exact reason why it's upside down.

upravo je to razlog zašto je pogrešan.

The trends that are increasing are instead falling,

Trendovi koji rastu zapravo padaju,

and the other way around,

i obrnuto,

and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us,

i u ovom slučaju, čimpanze koriste našu intuiciju protiv nas,

and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

i to postaje naša slabost umjesto snage.

It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

Trebala bi biti naša snaga, zar ne?

So how do we solve such problems?

Kako da rješimo ovakav problem?

First, we need to measure it,

Prvo, trebamo ga izmjeriti,

and then we need to cure it.

i onda ga trebamo izliječiti.

So by measuring it we can understand

Mjerenjem možemo razumijeti

what is the pattern of ignorance.

koji je obrazak neupućenosti.

We started the pilot last year,

Počeli smo s projektom prošle godine,

and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter

i sad smo poprilično sigurni da ćemo susresti

a lot of ignorance across the whole world,

mnogo neupućenosti širom cijelog svijeta,

and the idea is really to

i ideja je zapravo da

scale it up to all domains

stavimo u razmjer s domenama

or dimensions of global development,

ili dimenzijama globalnog razvoja,

such as climate, endangered species, human rights,

poput klime, ugroženih vrsta, ljudskih prava,

gender equality, energy, finance.

spolne jednakosti, energije, financija.

All different sectors have facts,

Različiti sektori imaju činjenice,

and there are organizations trying to spread

i postoje organizacije koje pokušavaju širiti

awareness about these facts.

svjesnost o tim činjenicama.

So I've started actually contacting some of them,

Zapravo sam počeo kontaktirati neke od njih,

like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF,

poput WWF-a i Amensty Internationala i UNICEF-a,

and asking them, what are your favorite facts

i ispitivati ih, koje su njihove najdraže činjenice

which you think the public doesn't know?

za koje misle da ih javnost ne zna?

Okay, I gather those facts.

OK, skupio sam te činjenice.

Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts.

Zamislite dugačku listu s, recimo 250 činjenica.

And then we poll the public

I onda smo ispitali javnost

and see where they score worst.

i pogledali gdje su najlošije odgovarali.

So we get a shorter list

Dobili smo kraću listu

with the terrible results,

s lošim razultatima,

like some few examples from Hans,

poput nekoliko Hansovih primjera,

and we have no problem finding these kinds

i nismo imali problema pronaći te primjere

of terrible results.

loših rezultata.

Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

OK, taj kratak popis, što ćemo učiniti s njim?

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate,

Pretvorit ćemo ga u certifikat znanja,

a global knowledge certificate,

certifikat globalnog znanja,

which you can use, if you're a large organization,

koji možete koristiti, ako ste velika organizacija,

a school, a university, or maybe a news agency,

škola, sveučilište, ili možda novinska agencija,

to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

kako bi se certificirali kao znalci globalnoga.

Basically meaning, we don't hire people

Jednostavno rečeno, nećemo zapošljavati ljude

who score like chimpanzees.

koji daju rezultate slične čimpanzama.

Of course you shouldn't.

Naravno da ne trebate.

So maybe 10 years from now,

Stoga možda za jedno deset godina,

if this project succeeds,

ako ovaj projekt uspije,

you will be sitting in an interview

sjedit ćete na intervjuu

having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

i morat ćete popuniti ovo ludo globalno znanje.

So now we come to the practical tricks.

Došli smo do praktičnih trikova.

How are you going to succeed?

Kako ćete uspjeti?

There is, of course, one way,

Postoji, naravno, jedan način,

which is to sit down late nights

a to je da sjedite dugo u noć

and learn all the facts by heart

i jako dobro naučite sve činjenice

by reading all these reports.

čitajući sva ova izvješća.

That will never happen, actually.

To se zapravo nikada neće dogoditi.

Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

Čak ni Hans ne misli da će se to dogoditi.

People don't have that time.

Ljudi nemaju vremena.

People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

Ljudi vole prečace, a ovo su prečaci.

We need to turn our intuition into strength again.

Trebamo pretvoriti intuiciju u snagu ponovo.

We need to be able to generalize.

Trebamo moći generalizirati.

So now I'm going to show you some tricks

Pokazat ću vam nekoliko trikova

where the misconceptions are turned around

gdje se zablude preokrenu

into rules of thumb.

u pravila.

Let's start with the first misconception.

Počnimo s prvom zabludom.

This is very widespread.

Ova je široko rasprostranjena.

Everything is getting worse.

Sve postaje gore.

You heard it. You thought it yourself.

Čuli ste to. Sami ste to pomislili.

The other way to think is, most things improve.

Drugi način mišljenja je, dosta toga se poboljšalo.

So you're sitting with a question in front of you

Sjedite s pitanjem ispred sebe

and you're unsure. You should guess "improve."

i nesigurni ste. Pogodite da se „poboljšalo“.

Okay? Don't go for the worse.

Dobro? Nemojte ići za gorim.

That will help you score better on our tests.

To će vam pomoći da bolje prođete na testu.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

That was the first one.

To je prva.

There are rich and poor

Postoje bogati i siromašni

and the gap is increasing.

i razmjer se povećava.

It's a terrible inequality.

To je grozna nejednakost.

Yeah, it's an unequal world,

Da, svijet je nejednak,

but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

ali kada pogledamo podatke, to je jedna grba.

Okay? If you feel unsure,

Ok? Ako se osjećate nesigurno,

go for "the most people are in the middle."

Odgovorite „većina ljudi je u sredini.“

That's going to help you get the answer right.

To će vam pomoći da točno odgovorite.

Now, the next preconceived idea is

Sljedeća unaprijed stvorena ideja je

first countries and people need to be very, very rich

da prvo države i ljudi trebaju biti veoma bogati

to get the social development

da bi došlo do društvenog razvoja

like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

poput djevojaka u školama i spremnosti za prirodne katastrofe.

No, no, no. That's wrong.

Ne, ne, ne. To je pogrešno.

Look: that huge hump in the middle

Pogledajte: ova velika grba u sredini

already have girls in school.

već ima djevojke u školama.

So if you are unsure, go for the

Ako ste nesigurni, odgovorite

"the majority already have this,"

„većina već ima ovo,“

like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

Poput struje i djevojaka u školama, te stvari.

They're only rules of thumb,

To su samo pravila,

so of course they don't apply to everything,

i naravno ne primjenjuju se svugdje,

but this is how you can generalize.

ali tamo možete generalizirati.

Let's look at the last one.

Pogledajmo zadnju.

If something, yes, this is a good one,

Ako nešto, da ovo je dobra,

sharks are dangerous.

morski psi su opasni.

No — well, yes, but they are not so important

Ne – pa, da, ali nisu toliko važni

in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

u globalnoj statistici, to želim reći.

I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

Zapravo, ja se jako bojim morskih pasa.

So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of,

Čim vidim pitanje o nečemu čega se bojim,

which might be earthquakes, other religions,

poput zemljotresa, drugih religija,

maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks,

možda se bojim terorista ili morskih pasa,

anything that makes me feel,

bilo što što će me navesti na osjećaj,

assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

pretpostavite da ćete preuveličati problem.

That's a rule of thumb.

To je pravilo.

Of course there are dangerous things that are also great.

Naravno postoje opasne stvari koje su i super.

Sharks kill very, very few. That's how you should think.

Morski psi ubiju vrlo, vrlo malo. Tako trebate razmišljati.

With these four rules of thumb,

S ova četiri pravila,

you could probably answer better than the chimps,

možete vjerojatno odgovoriti bolje no čimpanze,

because the chimps cannot do this.

jer čimpanze ne mogu ovo.

They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

One ne mogu generalizirati ovakva pravila.

And hopefully we can turn your world around

I nadam se, uspjet ćemo okrenuti vaš svijet

and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

i uspjet ćemo pobijediti čimpanze. Dobro?

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

That's a systematic approach.

To je sustavni pristup.

Now the question, is this important?

A pitanje, je li to važno?

Yeah, it's important to understand poverty,

Da, bitno je razumijeti siromaštvo,

extreme poverty and how to fight it,

ekstremno siromaštvo i kako se boriti protiv,

and how to bring girls in school.

i kako dovesti djevojke u škole.

When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

Kada shvatimo da zapravo uspjevamo, možemo to razumjeti.

But is it important for everyone else

Ali je li bitno i za druge koji

who cares about the rich end of this scale?

brinu o bogatom kraju ove skale?

I would say yes, extremely important,

Rekao bi da, vrlo važno

for the same reason.

zbog istog razloga.

If you have a fact-based worldview of today,

Ako danas imate svjetonazore zasnovane na činjenicama,

you might have a chance to understand

imate šansu razumjeti

what's coming next in the future.

što dolazi u budućnosti.

We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

Vratimo se nazad na dvije grbe iz 1975.

That's when I was born,

Tada sam ja rođen,

and I selected the West.

I odabrao sam zapad.

That's the current EU countries and North America.

To su trenutne države EU i Sjeverna Amerika.

Let's now see how the rest and the West compares

Pogledajmo sad kako se Zapad i ostatak svijeta uspoređuje

in terms of how rich you are.

uzeći u obzir koliko su bogati.

These are the people who can afford

Ovo su ljudi koji mogu priuštiti

to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.

let avionom na odmor.

In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived

U 1975, samo 30 posto njih je živjelo

outside EU and North America.

Izvan EU i Sjeverne Amerike.

But this has changed, okay?

Ali to se promjenilo, dobro?

So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.

Prvo pogledajmo promjene sve do danas, 2014.

Today it's 50/50.

Danas je 50/50.

The Western domination is over, as of today.

Dominacija zapada je gotova, od danas.

That's nice. So what's going to happen next?

To je lijepo. Što će se dogoditi sljedeće?

Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?

Vidite li veliku grbu? Vidite li kako se pomjerila?

I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.

Uradio sam eksperiment, otišao sam na MMF - ovu internetsku stranicu.

They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.

Prognozirali su BDP za sljedećih pet godina.

So I can use that to go five years into the future,

Mogu to koristiti kako bi otišao pet godina u budućnost,

assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

pretpostavljajući da je nejednakost prihoda svake države ostala ista.

I did that, but I went even further.

Učinio sam to, ali otišao sam čak dalje.

I used those five years for the next 20 years

Iskoristio sam tih pet godina za sljedećih 20 godina

with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.

Sa istom brzinom, samo kao eksperiment koji će se možda dogoditi.

Let's move into the future.

Idemo u budućnost.

In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.

Sad je 2020., 57 posto je kod ostalih.

In 2025, 63 percent.

2025-e, 63 posto.

2030, 68. And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market.

2030., 68. I u 2035. Zapad je nadmašen što se tiče tržišta bogatih.

These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future.

To su samo pretpostavke BDP-a u budućnosti.

Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers

Sedamdeset tri posto bogatih potrošača

are going to live outside North America and Europe.

će živjeti izvan Sjeverne Amerike i Europe.

So yes, I think it's a good idea for a company to use this certificate

Zato da, mislim da je dobra ideja za tvrtke da koriste ovaj certifikat

to make sure to make fact- based decisions in the future.

kako bi bili sigurni da stvaraju odluke zasnovane na činjenicama.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Bruno Giussani: Hans and Ola Rosling!

Bruno Giussani: Hans i Ola Rosling!