What a driverless world could look like | Wanis Kabbaj

Prevodilac: Goran Stanić Lektor: Ivana Krivokuća

Some people are obsessed by French wines.

Neki ljudi su opsednuti francuskim vinima.

Others love playing golf

Drugi vole da igraju golf

or devouring literature.

ili da prosto gutaju knjige.

One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit,

Moram priznati da je jedno od mojih najvećih zadovoljstava u životu

a bit special.

pomalo specifično.

I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky,

Ne mogu vam opisati koliko uživam posmatrajući gradove iz vazduha,

from an airplane window.

kroz prozor aviona.

Some cities are calmly industrious,

Neki gradovi su mirni i industrijski.

like Dusseldorf

kao što je Dizeldorf

or Louisville.

ili Luivil.

Others project an energy that they can hardly contain,

Drugi zrače energijom koju jedva mogu da kontrolišu

like New York

kao Njujork

or Hong Kong.

ili Hong Kong.

And then you have Paris

A onda imate Pariz,

or Istanbul,

ili Istanbul,

and their patina full of history.

i njihovu patinu punu istorije.

I see cities as living beings.

Ja vidim gradove kao živa bića.

And when I discover them from far above,

I kada ih tako posmatram sa visine,

I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space.

volim da pronalazim glavne ulice i auto-puteve koji im daju strukturu.

Especially at night,

Pogotovo noću,

when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden:

kad putnici čine da ove arterije izgledaju dramatično crveno i zlatno,

the city's vascular system performing its vital function

gradski krvotok vrši svoju vitalnu funkciju

right before your eyes.

baš pred vašim očima.

But when I'm sitting in my car

Ali, kada sedim u svom autu,

after an hour and a half of commute every day,

posle sat i po vožnje svakog dana,

that reality looks very different.

realnost izgleda potpuno drugačije.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Nothing --

Bas ništa -

not public radio,

ni javni radio,

no podcast --

ni radijske emisije -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Not even mindfulness meditation

Pa čak ni sabrana meditacija

makes this time worth living.

ne čine ovo vreme vrednim življenja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Isn't it absurd

Zar nije apsurdno

that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour

da smo stvorili automobile koji dostižu brzinu od 200 km/h,

and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?

a da ih sada vozimo istom brzinom kao i kočije iz 19. veka?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

In the US alone,

Samo u SAD-u

we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014.

smo proveli 29,6 milijardi sati u prevozu u 2014. godini.

With that amount of time,

Sa tom količinom vremena,

ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.

drevni Egipćani bi mogli sagraditi 26 piramida u Gizi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

We do that in one year.

Mi to uradimo u jednoj godini.

A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.

Neopisiv gubitak vremena, energije i ljudskog potencijala.

For decades,

Decenijama,

our remedy for congestion was simple:

naš lek za zakrčenost je bio jednostavan:

build new roads or enlarge existing ones.

izgraditi nove puteve ili uvećati postojeće.

And it worked.

I uspevalo nam je.

It worked admirably for Paris,

U Parizu je uspeh bio zadivljujuć

when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings

kada je u gradu porušeno na stotine istorijskih građevina

to create 85 miles

da bi se izgradilo 140 km

of transportation-friendly boulevards.

bulevara koji vozačima olakšavaju vožnju.

And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities.

I to i dalje uspeva u novim, brzo širećim gradovima.

But in more established urban centers,

Međutim, u utvrđenijim urbanim centrima

significant network expansions are almost impossible:

značajno proširenje saobraćajne mreže je gotovo nemoguće:

habitat is just too dense,

nastanjenost je pregusta,

real estate, too expensive

nekretnine preskupe,

and public finances, too fragile.

a javni prihodi preosetljivi.

Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick,

Krvotok našeg grada se zapušava i razboljeva,

and we should pay attention.

a na to moramo obratiti pažnju.

Our current way of thinking is not working.

Naš trenutni način razmišljanja ne funkcioniše.

For our transportation to flow,

Da bi naš saobraćaj tekao,

we need a new source of inspiration.

treba nam novi izvor inspiracije.

So after 16 years working in transportation,

Posle 16 godina rada u saobraćaju,

my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer.

moj „aha“ momenat se desio u razgovaru sa mušterijom biotehnologom.

She was telling me how her treatment

Ona mi je govorila kako je njena terapija

was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system.

ojačavala određene osobine našeg kardiovaskularnog sistema.

"Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system --

„Sjajno,“ pomislio sam, „naš krvotok -

all the veins and arteries in our body

sve vene i arterije u našem telu

making miracles of logistics every day."

sprovode logistička čuda svakog dana.“

This is the moment I realized

To je bio momenat kada sam shvatio

that biology has been in the transportation business

da je biologija u poslu transporta

for billions of years.

već milijardama godina.

It has been testing countless solutions

Testirala je bezbrojna rešenja

to move nutrients, gases and proteins.

za premeštanje hranljivih materija, gasova i proteina.

It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.

Zaista jeste najprefinjenija transportna laboratorija na svetu.

So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us?

Šta ako se rešenje za naše saobraćajne probleme

nalazi baš u nama samima?

I wanted to know:

Želeo sam da saznam

Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives,

zbog čega krv teče našim venama celog života,

when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis?

a naši veliki gradovi su svakodnevno zakrčeni.

And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks.

Realno gledajući, mi posmatramo dve sasvim različite mreže.

I don't know if you realize,

Ne znam da li ste svesni,

but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies --

ali svako od nas ima 100 000 kilometara krvnih sudova u telu -

60,000 miles.

100 000 kilometara.

That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference,

To su dve i po dužine Zemljinog obima,

inside you.

unutar vas.

What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us,

To znači da se krvni sudovi nalaze svuda unutar nas,

not just under the surface of our skin.

ne samo ispod površine kože.

But if you look at our cities,

Ali, ako pogledate naše gradove,

yes, we have some underground subway systems

istina je da imamo nekolicinu podzemnih veza

and some tunnels and bridges,

i isto tako nekoliko tunela i mostova,

and also some helicopters in the sky.

kao i po koji helikopter u vazduhu.

But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground,

Ipak, velika većina našeg saobraćaja je skoncentrisana na zemlji,

on the surface.

na površini.

So in other words,

Drugačije govoreći,

while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us,

dok naš vaskularni sistem unutar nas koristi tri dimenzije,

our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional.

naš urbani saobraćaj je pretežno dvodimenzionalan.

And so what we need is to embrace that verticality.

Dakle, ono što je potrebno je da prihvatimo tu vertikalnost.

If our surface grid is saturated,

Ako je naša površinska mreža zasićena,

well, let's elevate our traffic.

hade da izdignemo saobraćaj.

This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams --

Ovaj kineski koncept autobusa koji može da opkorači gužvu u saobraćaju

that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement

nam je otvorio oči kako može da se razmišlja o prostoru i kretanju

inside our cities.

u našim gradovima.

And we can go higher,

A možemo ići i više

and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid.

i okačiti naš saobraćaj kao što smo i električnu mrežu.

Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing

Tel Aviv i Abu Dabi će pokušati da testiraju

these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods.

ove futurističke mreže obešenih magnetnih kapsula.

And we can keep climbing, and fly.

A možemo se i još penjati i poleteti.

The fact that a company like Airbus

Činjenica da kompanija kao što je Erbas ozbiljno radi

is now seriously working on flying urban taxis

na letećim gradskim taksijima

is telling us something.

nam govori nešto.

Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu

Leteći automobili se konačno sele iz deža vua naučne fantastike

to attractive business-case territory.

u teritorije primamljivih poslovnih ponuda.

And that's an exciting moment.

To je jedan uzbudljiv momenat.

So building this 3-D transportation network

Dakle, izgradnja trodimenzionalne saobraćajne mreže

is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams.

je jedan od načina da ublažimo i rešimo saobraćajne zastoje.

But it's not the only one.

Ali to nije jedini način.

We have to question

Moramo dovesti u pitanje

other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use.

i druge fundamentalne odluke koje smo doneli,

kao što su vozila koja koristimo.

Just imagine a very familiar scene:

Zamislite samo vrlo poznat prizor.

You've been driving for 42 minutes.

Vozite se već 42 minuta.

The two kids behind you are getting restless.

Dvoje dece iza vas postaju nemirni.

And you're late.

I kasnite.

Do you see that slow car in front of you?

Da li vidite taj spori auto ispred vas?

Always comes when you're late, right?

Uvek se pojavi kad kasnite, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

That driver is looking for parking.

Taj vozač je u potrazi za parkingom.

There is no parking spot available in the area,

Nema slobodnog parking mesta u celoj zoni,

but how would he know?

ali kako da on to zna?

It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated

Procenjeno je da je čak 30 posto gradskog saobraćaja prouzrokovano

by drivers looking for parking.

vozačima koji traže parking.

Do you see the 100 cars around you?

Vidite li stotinu automobila oko vas?

Eighty-five of them only have one passenger.

Osamdeset pet njih imaju samo jednog putnika.

Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus.

Tih 85 vozača bi svi stali u jedan londonski crveni autobus.

So the question is:

Dakle, pitanje je

Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most?

zašto traćimo prostor ako je to nešto što nam je najpotrebnije?

Why are we doing this to ourselves?

Zašto ovo činimo sami sebi?

Biology would never do this.

Biologija tako nešto nikad ne bi uradila.

Space inside our arteries is fully utilized.

Prostor unutar naših arterija je u potpunosti iskorišćen.

At every heartbeat,

Svakim otkucajem srca,

a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells

viši krvni pritisak bukvalno sabija milione crvenih krvnih zrnaca

into massive trains of oxygen

u ogromne pakete kiseonika

that quickly flow throughout our body.

koji hitro teku našim telom.

And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either.

Nije protraćen ni sićušni prostor unutar crvenih krvnih zrnaca.

In healthy conditions,

Ukoliko su zdrave,

more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized.

više od 95 posto njihovog kapaciteta da skladište kiseonik je iskorišćeno.

Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities

Zamislite samo da su vozila koja koristimo u našim gradovima

were 95 percent full,

95 posto popunjena,

all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike

sav taj prostor koji bismo imali da pešačimo, vozimo bicikle

and to enjoy our cities?

i uživamo u svojim gradovima?

The reason blood is so incredibly efficient

Razlog zbog kog je krv tako neverovatno efikasna

is that our red blood cells are not dedicated

je taj što naša crvena krvna zrnca nisu privržena određenim organima ili tkivima;

to specific organs or tissues;

otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins.

u suprotnom bismo verovatno imali zastoje u svojim venama.

No, they're shared.

Ne, oni su podeljeni.

They're shared by all the cells of our body.

Podeljeni među svim ćelijama u našem telu.

And because our network is so extensive,

I baš zbog toga što je naša mreža toliko prostrana,

each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen

svaka od naših 37 biliona ćelija dobije svoju porciju kiseonika

precisely when it needs them.

baš onda kada joj treba.

Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation.

Krv je i kolektivni i individualni vid transporta.

But for our cities,

Međutim, u slučaju naših gradova,

we've been stuck.

malo smo zapeli.

We've been stuck in an endless debate

Zapeli u neprekidnoj raspravi

between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems.

između stvaranja „auto-centričnog“ društva ili prostranih sistema za masovni prevoz.

I think we should transcend this.

Smatram da treba prevazići ovo.

I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars

Smatram da možemo napraviti vozila koja spajaju pogodnost automobila

and the efficiencies of trains and buses.

sa efikasnošću vozova i autobusa.

Just imagine.

Zamislite samo.

You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train,

Udobno sedite u brzom i mirnom gradskom vozu

along with 1,200 passengers.

zajedno sa još 1 200 putnika.

The problem with urban trains

Problem sa gradskim vozovima

is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times

je što ponekad treba da se zaustavite pet, deset, petnaest puta

before your final destination.

pre krajnje destinacije.

What if in this train you didn't have to stop?

Šta ako u ovom vozu ne biste morali da se zaustavljate?

In this train,

U ovom vozu, vagoni se mogu dinamički otkačiti dok se krećete

wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving

and become express, driverless buses

i postati brzi samoupravljački autobusi

that move on a secondary road network.

koji se kreću sekundarnom mrežom puteva.

And so without a single stop,

I tako bez ijedne stanice

nor a lengthy transfer,

ili otegnutih presedanja,

you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb.

sedite u autobusu koji se kreće prema vašem predgrađu.

And when you get close,

A kada se približite,

the section you're sitting in detaches

odeljak u kom sedite se odvaja

and self-drives you right to your doorstep.

i sam vas vozi pravo do kućnog praga.

It is collective and individual at the same time.

Istovremeno je i kolektivno i individualno

This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.

i moglo bi biti jedno od modularnih, samoupravljajućih vozila sutrašnjice.

Now ...

Sada...

as if walking in a city buzzing with drones,

kao da šetnja gradom koji zuji od dronova,

flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods

letećih taksija, modularnih autobusa i visećih magnetnih kapsula

was not exotic enough,

nije bila dovoljno egzotična,

I think there is another force in action

smatram da postoji još jedan način

that will make urban traffic mesmerizing.

koji bi gradski prevoz učinio očaravajućim.

If you think about it,

Ako malo bolje razmislite,

the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way

sadašnja generacija samoupravljajućih auta samo pokušava da nađe svoje mesto

into a traffic grid made by and for humans.

u saobraćajnoj mreži napravljenoj od ljudi za ljude.

They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple,

Oni pokušavaju da savladaju saobraćajna pravila,

što je relativno jednostavno,

and coping with human unpredictability,

kao i da se nose sa ljudskom nepredvidivošću,

which is more challenging.

što je malo zahtevnije.

But what would happen when whole cities become driverless?

A šta bi bilo kada bi čitavi gradovi postali samoupravljajući?

Would we need traffic lights?

Da li bi nam bili potrebni semafori?

Would we need lanes?

Da li bi nam bile potrebne trake?

How about speed limits?

A ograničenja brzine?

Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes.

Crvena krvna zrnca ne teku u trakama.

They never stop at red lights.

Nikad ne staju na crveno svetlo.

In the first driverless cities,

U prvim samoupravljajućim gradovima,

you would have no red lights and no lanes.

nećete naći ni crvena svetla ni trake.

And when all the cars are driverless and connected,

A kada su svi automobili samoupravljajući i umreženi,

everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum.

sve je predvidivo, a vreme reakcije minimalno.

They can drive much faster

Mogu voziti mnogo brže i mogu preduzeti

and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up

bilo kakvu racionalnu inicijativu koja ih može ubrzati,

or the cars around them.

kao i vozila oko njih.

So instead of rigid traffic rules,

Umesto strogih saobraćajnih pravila,

flow will be regulated

tok će biti regulisan

by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms.

mrežom dinamičnih algoritama koji bi se konstantno poboljšavali.

The result: a strange traffic

Rezultat je čudan saobraćaj

that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns

koji spaja brzu, a uglađenu strogost nemačkih auto-puteva

and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.

i kreativnu vitalnost saobraćajnica u Mumbaju.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Traffic will be functionally exuberant.

Saobraćaj će biti bujan i funkcionalan.

It will be liquid like our blood.

Biće tečan poput naše krvi.

And by a strange paradox,

I kao neki čudnovati paradoks,

the more robotized our traffic grid will be,

što robotizovaniji naš saobraćaj bude,

the more organic and alive its movement will feel.

to će njegovo kretanje biti življe i prirodnije.

So yes,

Dakle, da,

biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today.

danas biologija ima sve atribute jednog saobraćajnog genija,

But this process has taken billions of years,

ali ovaj proces je trajao milijardama godina

and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations.

i prošao kroz razne iteracije i mutacije.

We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system.

Ne možemo čekati milijardu godina da naš saobraćajni sistem evoluira.

We now have the dreams,

Mi sada imamo snove,

the concepts

koncepte

and the technology

i tehnologiju

to create 3-D transportation networks,

da stvorimo trodimenzionalnu saobraćajnu mrežu,

invent new vehicles

izumemo nova vozila

and change the flow in our cities.

i izmenimo tok u našim gradovima.

Let's do it.

Uradimo to.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)