What a driverless world could look like | Wanis Kabbaj

Prevoditelj: Dorian Antoniazzo Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Some people are obsessed by French wines.

Neki ljudi su opsjednuti francuskim vinima.

Others love playing golf

Drugi vole igrati golf

or devouring literature.

ili čitati.

One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit,

Jedan od najvećih užitaka u mom životu je, moram priznati,

a bit special.

na neki način jedinstven.

I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky,

Ne mogu vam opisati koliko uživam u promatranju gradova iz zraka,

from an airplane window.

kroz avionski prozor.

Some cities are calmly industrious,

Neki gradovi su hladno industrijski,

like Dusseldorf

kao Düsseldorf

or Louisville.

ili Louisville.

Others project an energy that they can hardly contain,

Drugi stvaraju energiju koju mogu teško zauzdati,

like New York

kao New York

or Hong Kong.

ili Hong Kong.

And then you have Paris

A onda imate i Pariz

or Istanbul,

ili Istanbul,

and their patina full of history.

sa svojom šarolikom povijesti.

I see cities as living beings.

Gradove vidim kao živa bića.

And when I discover them from far above,

I kada ih otkrivam sa visina,

I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space.

volim tražiti glavne ulice i autoceste koje ih strukturiraju.

Especially at night,

Posebno noću,

when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden:

kada vozači stvaraju predivne crvene i zlatne boje u tim gradskim arterijama:

the city's vascular system performing its vital function

gradski kardiovaskularni sustav vrši svoju primarnu funkciju

right before your eyes.

točno ispred vaših očiju.

But when I'm sitting in my car

Ali kada sjedim u autu

after an hour and a half of commute every day,

nakon sat i pol putovanja s posla svaki dan,

that reality looks very different.

stvarnost postaje potpuno drugačija.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Nothing --

Ništa --

not public radio,

ni gradski radio,

no podcast --

ni podcast --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Not even mindfulness meditation

Čak ni Mindfulness meditacija

makes this time worth living.

u tom trenutku ne daje smisao životu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Isn't it absurd

Nije li smiješno

that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour

da smo izumili automobile koji mogu ići 210 km/h,

and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?

a sada se vozimo brzinom kojom su išle kočije u 19. stoljeću?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

In the US alone,

Samo u SAD-u, 2014. godine,

we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014.

utrošeno je 29.6 milijardi sati na putovanje s posla i na posao.

With that amount of time,

U tom vremenskom periodu,

ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.

drevni Egipćani su mogli izgraditi 26 piramida u Gazi.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We do that in one year.

Mi to uspijemo u jednoj godini.

A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.

To je gorostasan gubitak vremena, energije i ljudskog potencijala.

For decades,

Desetljećima,

our remedy for congestion was simple:

naše rješenje za gužve je bilo sljedeće:

build new roads or enlarge existing ones.

izgraditi nove ceste ili povećati postojeće.

And it worked.

I to je funkcioniralo.

It worked admirably for Paris,

Funkcioniralo je prelijepo za Pariz,

when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings

kada su srušili stotine povijesnih zgrada

to create 85 miles

da bi izgradili 135 kilometara

of transportation-friendly boulevards.

cesta koje olakšavaju promet.

And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities.

To i dan danas funkcionira u brzorastućim gradovima.

But in more established urban centers,

Ali u većim urbanim središtima,

significant network expansions are almost impossible:

značajan rast prometnih mreža gotovo je nemoguć:

habitat is just too dense,

naseljenost je prevelika,

real estate, too expensive

nekretnine su preskupe,

and public finances, too fragile.

javne financije su prenestabilne.

Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick,

Kardiovaskularni sustav našeg grada postaje začepljen, postaje bolestan,

and we should pay attention.

i na to trebamo obratiti pažnju.

Our current way of thinking is not working.

Način na koji sada razmišljamo ne funkcionira.

For our transportation to flow,

Da bi promet glatko tekao,

we need a new source of inspiration.

treba nam neka nova inspiracija.

So after 16 years working in transportation,

Nakon 16 godina rada u prometu,

my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer.

moj "aha trenutak" dogodio se nakon razgovora sa pacijenticom biotehnologije.

She was telling me how her treatment

Govorila mi je kako joj njen tretman

was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system.

poboljšava određene aspekte kardiovaskularnog sustava.

"Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system --

Odmah sam pomislio "Wow, naš kardiovaskularni sustav --

all the veins and arteries in our body

i sve vene i arterije u našem tijelu

making miracles of logistics every day."

čine logistička čuda svaki dan."

This is the moment I realized

I tada sam shvatio

that biology has been in the transportation business

da se biologija bavi prometom

for billions of years.

već milijarde godina.

It has been testing countless solutions

Isprobavala je nebrojena rješenja

to move nutrients, gases and proteins.

za prijevoz hranjivih tvari, plinova i bjelančevina.

It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.

To je zaista najsofisticiraniji prometni laboratorij na svijetu.

So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us?

Što ako je rješenje za probleme u prometu zapravo u nama?

I wanted to know:

Zanimalo me:

Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives,

Kako to da krv kola našim žilama praktički naš cijeli život,

when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis?

a veliki gradovi se svakodnevno zaštopavaju?

And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks.

Realno gledano, to su dvije vrlo različite mreže.

I don't know if you realize,

Neznam jeste li znali

but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies --

da svatko od nas u sebi ima oko 100.000 kilometara krvnih žila --

60,000 miles.

100.000 kilometara.

That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference,

To je dva i pol opsega zemlje,

inside you.

u vama.

What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us,

To znači da su krvne žile u nama posvuda,

not just under the surface of our skin.

ne samo ispod kože.

But if you look at our cities,

Ali kad gledamo naše gradove,

yes, we have some underground subway systems

istina je da imamo podzemne željeznice,

and some tunnels and bridges,

tunele i mostove,

and also some helicopters in the sky.

i nekoliko helikoptera u zraku.

But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground,

Ali većina našeg prometa odvija se na zemlji,

on the surface.

na površini.

So in other words,

Dakle, drugim riječima,

while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us,

dok naš kardiovaskulirani sustav u nama radi u tri dimenzije,

our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional.

naš gradski promet je većinom dvodimenzionalan.

And so what we need is to embrace that verticality.

Moramo prihvatiti tu okomitost.

If our surface grid is saturated,

Ako je promet na površini zasićen,

well, let's elevate our traffic.

pa podignimo ga u zrak.

This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams --

Ovaj kineski koncept autobusa koji može zaobići gužve u prometu --

that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement

on potpuno mijenja način na koji gledamo prostor i kretanje

inside our cities.

u našim gradovima.

And we can go higher,

Možemo ići još i više,

and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid.

i objesiti promet kao što to činimo s električnom mrežom.

Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing

Tel Aviv i Abu Dhabi govore o testiranju

these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods.

futurističkih mreža obješenih magnetskih kapsula.

And we can keep climbing, and fly.

Možemo se još penjati, toliko da poletimo u zrak.

The fact that a company like Airbus

Činjenica da tvrtka kao Airbus

is now seriously working on flying urban taxis

trenutno radi na letećim gradskim taxijima

is telling us something.

nam govori nešto.

Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu

Leteći automobili konačno prelaze iz znanstvene fantastike

to attractive business-case territory.

u atraktivne poslovne mogućnosti.

And that's an exciting moment.

I to je uzbudljiv trenutak.

So building this 3-D transportation network

Dakle, izgradnja tih 3D prometnih mreža

is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams.

je jedan način kako možemo upravljati gužvama u prometu i riješiti ih.

But it's not the only one.

No to nije jedini način.

We have to question

Ono što još moramo preispitati

other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use.

su neke temeljne odluke koje donosimo, kao što je korištenje vozila.

Just imagine a very familiar scene:

Zamislite si jednu vrlo poznatu scenu:

You've been driving for 42 minutes.

Vozite se već 42 minute.

The two kids behind you are getting restless.

Dvoje djece iza vas postaju već jako nemirna.

And you're late.

A vi kasnite.

Do you see that slow car in front of you?

Vidite taj spori automobil ispred vas?

Always comes when you're late, right?

Uvijek je tu kad negdje kasnite, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

That driver is looking for parking.

Taj vozač traži parking.

There is no parking spot available in the area,

Nigdje u blizini nema slobodnog parkinga,

but how would he know?

ali kako on to može znati?

It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated

Pretpostavlja se da je 30 posto prometnih gužvi uzrokovano

by drivers looking for parking.

vozačima koji traže parking.

Do you see the 100 cars around you?

Vidite li tih 100 automobila oko vas?

Eighty-five of them only have one passenger.

Osamdeset pet posto njih ima samo jednog putnika.

Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus.

Svih tih 85 putnika može stati u jedan Londonski crveni autobus.

I onda se postavlja pitanje:

So the question is:

Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most?

Zašto bespotrebno iskorištavamo toliko prostora ako upravo njega najviše trebamo?

Why are we doing this to ourselves?

Zašto si to radimo?

Biology would never do this.

Biologija to nikad ne bi napravila.

Space inside our arteries is fully utilized.

Prostor u našim arterijama je potpuno iskorišten.

At every heartbeat,

Sa svakim otkucajem srca,

a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells

krvni tlak doslovno zbija milijune crvenih krvnih stanica

into massive trains of oxygen

u ogromne vlakove kisika

that quickly flow throughout our body.

koji velikom brzinom putuju kroz tijelo.

And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either.

Čak je i mali prostor unutar crvenih krvnih stanica iskorišten.

In healthy conditions,

U normalnim uvjetima,

more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized.

više od 95% njihovog kapaciteta kisika je iskorišten.

Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities

Možete li zamisliti da su vozila koja koristimo u našim gradovima

were 95 percent full,

95% puna?

all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike

Koliko bi mjesta imali za hodanje, vožnju biciklom

and to enjoy our cities?

i za uživanje u našim gradovima?

The reason blood is so incredibly efficient

Razlog zbog kojeg je krv toliko učinkovita

is that our red blood cells are not dedicated

je taj što naše crvene krvne stanice ne idu

to specific organs or tissues;

određenim organima ili tkivima;

otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins.

u suprotnom bi vjerojatno imali prometne gužve u venama.

No, they're shared.

Ne, one su zajedničke.

They're shared by all the cells of our body.

One su zajedničke svim stanicama u našem tijelu.

And because our network is so extensive,

I zbog toga što je naša mreža toliko prostrana,

each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen

svaka od naših 37 trilijuna stanica dobiva svoju dozu kisika

precisely when it needs them.

točno onda kada ga treba.

Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation.

Krv je istovremeno zajednički i individualni oblik transportacije.

But for our cities,

Ali što se tiče naših gradova,

we've been stuck.

tu smo zapeli.

We've been stuck in an endless debate

Zapeli smo u neprekidnoj polemici

between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems.

između stvaranja automobilskog društva ili opsežnih sustava javnog prijevoza.

I think we should transcend this.

Mislim da to možemo nadići.

I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars

Smatram da možemo stvoriti vozila koja povezuju udobnost automobila

and the efficiencies of trains and buses.

i efikasnost vlakova i autobusa.

Just imagine.

Zamislite samo.

You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train,

Udobno ste se smjestili u brzom i ugodnom gradskom vlaku,

along with 1,200 passengers.

zajedno sa još 1200 putnika.

The problem with urban trains

Problem sa gradskim vlakovima

is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times

je taj što on mora stati pet, deset, petnaest puta

before your final destination.

prije vašeg konačnog odredišta.

What if in this train you didn't have to stop?

Zamislite da se uopće ne trebate zaustavljati.

In this train,

U ovom vlaku,

wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving

vagoni se mogu odvajati u pokretu

and become express, driverless buses

i postati ekspresni autobusi bez vozača

that move on a secondary road network.

koji se kreću sporednom mrežom.

And so without a single stop,

I tako bez ijednog zaustavljanja,

nor a lengthy transfer,

bez duge vožnje,

you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb.

sada sjedite u autobusu koji ide prema vašem predgrađu.

And when you get close,

I kada ste dovoljno blizu,

the section you're sitting in detaches

odjeljak u kojem sjedite se odvoji

and self-drives you right to your doorstep.

i odveze vas direktno pred vaš ulaz.

It is collective and individual at the same time.

Zajedničko i individualno u isto vrijeme.

This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.

To može biti jedno od zajedničkih, modularnih vozila bez vozača.

Now ...

A onda ...

as if walking in a city buzzing with drones,

ako hodanje gradom punom dronova,

flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods

letećih taksija, modularnih autobusa i visećih magnetnih kapsula

was not exotic enough,

nije dovoljno egzotično,

I think there is another force in action

postoji još nešto

that will make urban traffic mesmerizing.

što može učiniti gradski promet očaravajućim.

If you think about it,

Kada malo razmislite,

the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way

sadašnja generacija samovozečih automobila tek pokušava zaslužiti svoju ulaznicu

into a traffic grid made by and for humans.

u gradsku prometnu mrežu namjenjenu ljudima.

They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple,

Pokušavaju naučiti prometna pravila, što je relativno jednostavno,

and coping with human unpredictability,

i nositi se sa ljudskom nepredvidljivošću,

which is more challenging.

što je daleko izazovnije.

But what would happen when whole cities become driverless?

No, što bi se dogodilo kada bi cijeli gradovi bili bez vozača?

Would we need traffic lights?

Bi li trebali semafore?

Would we need lanes?

Bi li trebali trake?

How about speed limits?

Što je sa ograničenjima brzina?

Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes.

Crvene krvne stanice ne teku u trakama.

They never stop at red lights.

One ne staju na crveno.

In the first driverless cities,

U prvim gradovima bez vozača,

you would have no red lights and no lanes.

ne bi imali semafore niti trake.

And when all the cars are driverless and connected,

Kada su svi auti bez vozača i povezani,

everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum.

sve je predvidljivo, a vrijeme reakcije je najmanje moguće.

They can drive much faster

Oni mogu voziti puno brže

and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up

i mogu poduzeti bilo kakve razumne korake koji ih mogu ubrzati

or the cars around them.

ili automobile oko njih.

So instead of rigid traffic rules,

Dakle, umjesto krutih prometnih pravila,

flow will be regulated

promet će biti reguliran

by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms.

spojem dinamičnih algoritama koji se konstantno poboljšavaju.

The result: a strange traffic

Rezultat: neobičan promet

that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns

koji povezuje brzo i glatko strujanje njemačkih autocesta

and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.

sa kreativnom životnosti Mumbajskih raskrižja.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Traffic will be functionally exuberant.

Promet će biti bujan, ali funkcionalan.

It will be liquid like our blood.

Bit će tekući, kao naša krv.

And by a strange paradox,

I u čudnom kontrastu,

the more robotized our traffic grid will be,

što će prometna mreža biti kompjuteriziranija,

the more organic and alive its movement will feel.

to će biti prirodnija i njezine kretnje će izgledati živo.

So yes,

Da,

biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today.

biologija ima sve osobine prijevoznog genija.

But this process has taken billions of years,

Ali taj je proces trajao milijardama godina,

and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations.

i prošao razne testove i mutacije.

We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system.

Mi ne možemo čekati milijarde godina da razvijemo svoj sustav transportacije.

We now have the dreams,

Sada imamo snove,

the concepts

koncepte

and the technology

i tehnologiju

to create 3-D transportation networks,

da razvijemo prijevozne 3D mreže,

invent new vehicles

izumimo nova vozila

and change the flow in our cities.

i promijenimo tok prometa u našim gradovima.

Let's do it.

Učinimo to.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)