What a driverless world could look like | Wanis Kabbaj

翻译人员: Conway Ye 校对人员: Tingting Zhong

Some people are obsessed by French wines.

有些人对法国葡萄酒着迷，

Others love playing golf

有些人喜欢打高尔夫球，

or devouring literature.

或者沉浸在文学作品里。

One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit,

我生活中最大的乐趣是， 我不得不承认，

a bit special.

有点特殊。

I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky,

我无法形容 我有多么享受从飞机上

from an airplane window.

俯视整个城市。

Some cities are calmly industrious,

有些城市的工业化程度刚刚好，

like Dusseldorf

比如杜塞尔多夫，

or Louisville.

或者路易维尔。

Others project an energy that they can hardly contain,

而有些城市已经早已不堪重负，

like New York

像纽约，

or Hong Kong.

或香港。

And then you have Paris

然后，还有像巴黎，

or Istanbul,

伊斯坦堡这样

and their patina full of history.

充满历史的城市。

I see cities as living beings.

我把城市当作生命体，

And when I discover them from far above,

当我从高空鸟瞰它们的时候，

I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space.

我喜欢寻找那些组成了 城市框架的主要街道和高速公路。

Especially at night,

特别是在晚上，

when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden:

人们让这些城市的动脉变得 异常鲜红和金黄：

the city's vascular system performing its vital function

城市的血液循环系统生机勃勃地

right before your eyes.

展现在你的眼前。

But when I'm sitting in my car

但是，当我坐在自己的车里，

after an hour and a half of commute every day,

每天有一个半小时的时间都堵在路上，

that reality looks very different.

眼前的一切就截然不同了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Nothing --

什么都没有——

not public radio,

没有广播节目，

no podcast --

没有播客，

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Not even mindfulness meditation

连能让这些时间变得有点意义的

makes this time worth living.

专注的冥想都做不到。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Isn't it absurd

这难道不可笑吗？

that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour

我们制造了能够达到 时速210公里的汽车，

and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?

却以19世纪马车一样的 速度驾驶它们。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In the US alone,

仅仅在美国，

we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014.

2014年我们就 花了296亿小时在通勤上。

With that amount of time,

在这么多的时间里，

ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.

古埃及人都能造出26个胡夫金字塔了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We do that in one year.

我们用了一年就做到了。

A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.

这是对时间，精力和 人类潜能巨大的浪费。

For decades,

数十年来，

our remedy for congestion was simple:

我们解决交通拥堵的方式都很简单：

build new roads or enlarge existing ones.

建造新路或者拓宽现存的道路，

And it worked.

效果还算不错。

It worked admirably for Paris,

巴黎的建设卓有成效，

when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings

他们拆毁了上百幢历史建筑，

to create 85 miles

建造了137公里的

of transportation-friendly boulevards.

交通友好型的大道。

And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities.

在当今快速兴起的城市中也是如此。

But in more established urban centers,

但是在很多繁华的城市中心，

significant network expansions are almost impossible:

较大的道路拓宽几乎是不可能的：

habitat is just too dense,

建筑过于密集，

real estate, too expensive

房价过高，

and public finances, too fragile.

公共建设资金太少。

Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick,

我们的城市血液循环系统正在 变得拥堵，无法正常发挥功能，

and we should pay attention.

应该引起我们的重视。

Our current way of thinking is not working.

我们现有的思维方式 已经不起作用了。

For our transportation to flow,

为了让交通流动起来，

we need a new source of inspiration.

我们需要一种新的灵感。

So after 16 years working in transportation,

我在交通部门工作了16年，

my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer.

在和一个生物技术背景的 顾客交谈时突然茅塞顿开。

She was telling me how her treatment

她告诉我她的研究

was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system.

如何影响了我们血液循环 系统的一些特殊性质。

"Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system --

“哇”，我想到，“我们的血液循环系统，

all the veins and arteries in our body

我们身体内的所有动脉和静脉，

making miracles of logistics every day."

每天都在创造生理的奇迹。"

This is the moment I realized

就是那个时候我意识到，

that biology has been in the transportation business

生物学已经存在于交通方面

for billions of years.

几十亿年了。

It has been testing countless solutions

它已经测试过无数方法，

to move nutrients, gases and proteins.

转移养分，气体和蛋白质。

It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.

这真的是世界上最复杂的交通系统。

So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us?

所以，如果交通拥堵的 解决方案就在我们体内呢？

I wanted to know:

我想知道，

Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives,

为什么绝大多数时间， 血液在血管中不会堵塞？

但我们的大城市每天都会拥堵？

when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis?

And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks.

事实上，这是两种非常不同的系统。

I don't know if you realize,

我不知道你意识到了没有，

but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies --

实际上我们每个人体内都有近 十万公里长的血管——

60,000 miles.

十万公里。

That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference,

你的体内有两个半的

inside you.

地球赤道。

What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us,

这意味着血管在你身体里无处不在，

not just under the surface of our skin.

不仅只在皮肤下面（看得见的地方）。

But if you look at our cities,

但是，看看我们的城市，

yes, we have some underground subway systems

是，我们的确有一些地铁系统，

and some tunnels and bridges,

一些隧道和桥梁，

and also some helicopters in the sky.

以及天空中的直升机。

But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground,

但是绝大多数的交通都是在地面，

on the surface.

在地表上。

So in other words,

换句话说，

while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us,

我们体内的血管系统是立体结构的，

our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional.

而绝大多数的城市交通系统 都是平面结构的。

And so what we need is to embrace that verticality.

所以我们需要利用更多的纵向空间。

If our surface grid is saturated,

如果地表已经没有多余的空间，

well, let's elevate our traffic.

那我们就把交通系统抬高。

This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams --

这个中国的概念巴士 能够凌驾于拥堵的交通道路之上，

that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement

这种对城市内部的 空间和移动的思考方式

inside our cities.

多么让人大开眼界。

And we can go higher,

然而我们可以把

and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid.

交通系统的位置继续抬升， 像我们的输电网络一样。

Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing

特拉维夫和阿布扎比正在考虑检测

these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods.

这些构成未来交通网络的 悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢。

And we can keep climbing, and fly.

我们还可以继续抬高，甚至飞翔。

The fact that a company like Airbus

事实上像空中客车这样的公司

is now seriously working on flying urban taxis

正在认真研究城市飞行的士，

is telling us something.

看起来前景光明。

Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu

飞行汽车终于从科幻小说进入到了

to attractive business-case territory.

引人注目的商业领域。

And that's an exciting moment.

这是令人激动的时刻。

So building this 3-D transportation network

建造这些立体交通网络

is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams.

是减少或解决交通堵塞的方法之一。

But it's not the only one.

但还有其他方法。

We have to question

我们还要考虑

other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use.

其他基本的选择， 比如我们使用的交通工具。

Just imagine a very familiar scene:

想象一个非常熟悉的场景：

You've been driving for 42 minutes.

你已经开车42分钟了。

The two kids behind you are getting restless.

后座的两个小孩开始不耐烦。

And you're late.

而且你要迟到了。

Do you see that slow car in front of you?

你看到前面那辆慢吞吞的车了吗？

Always comes when you're late, right?

总是在你迟到的时候出现，对吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That driver is looking for parking.

那个驾驶员正在寻找停车位。

There is no parking spot available in the area,

那块区域没有空车位，

but how would he know?

但是他怎么会知道？

It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated

据估计，有将近30%的城市交通拥堵是由

by drivers looking for parking.

驾驶员找车位造成的。

Do you see the 100 cars around you?

你看见身边的100辆车了吗？

Eighty-five of them only have one passenger.

其中的85辆都只有一位乘客。

Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus.

那85个驾驶员能够 装满一辆伦敦红巴士。

So the question is:

所以问题是，

Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most?

为什么我们浪费这么多宝贵的空间？

Why are we doing this to ourselves?

为什么我们要这样对自己？

Biology would never do this.

生物学永远不会这样。

Space inside our arteries is fully utilized.

我们血管的空间都被充分利用了。

At every heartbeat,

每一次心跳

a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells

产生的血压能够为数百万血细胞

into massive trains of oxygen

压缩大量的氧气进行运输，

that quickly flow throughout our body.

并很快流遍全身。

And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either.

连血细胞内的 微小空间也没有被浪费。

In healthy conditions,

在健康条件下，

more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized.

超过95%的氧容量都能够被使用。

Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities

你能够想象如果 我们城市里超过95%的

were 95 percent full,

交通工具都是满载的，

all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike

剩下的空间，能够让你 自由地走路，骑车，

and to enjoy our cities?

享受这个城市吗？

The reason blood is so incredibly efficient

血液是如此有效率的原因

is that our red blood cells are not dedicated

是我们的血细胞不只作用于

to specific organs or tissues;

特定器官或组织；

otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins.

要不然，我们的血管可能也会堵塞。

No, they're shared.

它们实际上是共享的。

They're shared by all the cells of our body.

它们被身体所有的细胞共有。

And because our network is so extensive,

但是因为我们的身体系统如此庞大，

each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen

37万亿细胞中的每一个 都有自己的氧气输送渠道，

precisely when it needs them.

有需要时能实现精准输送。

Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation.

血液既是集体，也是个体的运输方式。

But for our cities,

但是对我们的城市来说，

we've been stuck.

我们被困住了。

We've been stuck in an endless debate

我们被无尽的争辩困住了，

between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems.

纠结于创造一个以汽车为中心的社会， 还是打造大型的交通系统。

I think we should transcend this.

我觉得我们应该跳出这些限制。

I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars

我觉得我们能建造出 结合传统汽车的便捷，

and the efficiencies of trains and buses.

和火车巴士的效率的交通工具。

Just imagine.

想想看，

You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train,

你舒服地坐在一辆 快速平稳的城市火车上，

along with 1,200 passengers.

还有其他1200个乘客。

The problem with urban trains

城市火车的问题在于

is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times

有时候你要停下五次、十次、十五次

before your final destination.

才到达你的站点。

What if in this train you didn't have to stop?

如果这个火车不用停下呢？

In this train,

这辆火车的

wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving

车厢能够在移动中自动脱离，

and become express, driverless buses

成为高速的无人驾驶巴士，

that move on a secondary road network.

飞驰在次级运输道路上。

And so without a single stop,

所以无需任何停顿，

nor a lengthy transfer,

也无需长距离的换乘，

you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb.

你正坐在一辆驶向城区的巴士中。

And when you get close,

快到的时候，

the section you're sitting in detaches

你所坐的部分会脱离，

and self-drives you right to your doorstep.

自动驾驶到你的目的地跟前。

It is collective and individual at the same time.

这就同时实现了集体和个体运输。

This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.

这可能就是未来的公共模块化 无人驾驶交通工具之一。

Now ...

现在再想象一下，

as if walking in a city buzzing with drones,

你行走在满是无人机，

flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods

飞行的士，模块化巴士和 悬挂式磁性胶囊车厢的城市，

was not exotic enough,

这还不够天马行空。

I think there is another force in action

我觉得还有一个方法，

能够减轻城市交通堵塞。

that will make urban traffic mesmerizing.

If you think about it,

想想看，

the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way

现在的无人驾驶汽车都在尝试

into a traffic grid made by and for humans.

适应人类的驾驶网络。

They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple,

它们在尝试学习相对简单的交通规则，

and coping with human unpredictability,

并适应人类行为的不确定性，

which is more challenging.

这相对比较难。

But what would happen when whole cities become driverless?

但是当整个城市都实现了 无人驾驶，会发生什么？

Would we need traffic lights?

我们还需要红绿灯吗？

Would we need lanes?

我们需要车道吗？

How about speed limits?

限速呢？

Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes.

血细胞可不是沿着特定的通道移动。

They never stop at red lights.

他们从不在红灯停下。

In the first driverless cities,

第一个无人驾驶城市，

you would have no red lights and no lanes.

不会有红灯和车道。

And when all the cars are driverless and connected,

当车辆都实现无人驾驶 并互相联网的时候，

everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum.

任何事情都是可预测的， 反应时间达到最短。

They can drive much faster

它们能够驾驶得更快，

and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up

可以理性地做出选择来加速，

or the cars around them.

或者让身边的车辆先行。

So instead of rigid traffic rules,

没有严格的交通规则，

flow will be regulated

车流会被

by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms.

一个流动网络和不断 自我改进的算法管制。

The result: a strange traffic

结果就产生了一种新颖的交通，

that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns

混合了德国高速公路的快捷和通畅，

and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.

和孟买交岔路的创造性和活力。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Traffic will be functionally exuberant.

交通会在功能上更活跃，

It will be liquid like our blood.

变成血液一样的液体。

And by a strange paradox,

听上去像是一种悖论，

the more robotized our traffic grid will be,

但我们的交通越机械自动化，

the more organic and alive its movement will feel.

就会如有机体般，变得更活跃。

So yes,

所以是的，

biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today.

生物学包含着所有 关于交通运输的智慧，

But this process has taken billions of years,

但是这个过程花了数十亿年，

and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations.

经过了无数消除和变异的过程。

We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system.

我们没法等待数十亿年来 改善交通系统。

We now have the dreams,

我们现在有了梦想，

the concepts

概念，

and the technology

和技术，

to create 3-D transportation networks,

来创造立体交通网络，

invent new vehicles

研发新的交通工具，

and change the flow in our cities.

来改变城市的交通流动。

Let's do it.

让我们行动起来吧。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）