What a driverless world could look like | Wanis Kabbaj

譯者: 庭芝 梁 審譯者: Melody Tang

Some people are obsessed by French wines.

有些人對法國葡萄酒著迷。

Others love playing golf

有些人則愛打高爾夫球，

or devouring literature.

或熱愛閱讀文學作品。

One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit,

我生活中最大的樂趣之一，

我必須承認，有點特別。

a bit special.

I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky,

我很難形容 我有多喜愛從空中，

從飛機的窗口，俯視整座城市。

from an airplane window.

Some cities are calmly industrious,

有些城市只經過些微的工業化，

like Dusseldorf

像是杜塞道夫，

or Louisville.

或路易維爾。

Others project an energy that they can hardly contain,

有些城市則散發出難以掩蓋的能量，

例如紐約，

like New York

or Hong Kong.

或是香港。

And then you have Paris

你還能看到像是巴黎，

or Istanbul,

或伊斯坦堡，

and their patina full of history.

連街道上的的銅鏽都充滿歷史情懷。

我把城市視為生命體，

I see cities as living beings.

And when I discover them from far above,

當我從高空中看見它們，

我喜歡去尋找 架構空間的主要街道和高速公路。

I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space.

尤其是在晚上，

Especially at night,

when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden:

往來的人們， 讓交通動脈顯得五彩繽紛：

the city's vascular system performing its vital function

它們就像是整座城市的血管系統，

正在你眼前執行重要的運輸功能。

right before your eyes.

But when I'm sitting in my car

但是當我坐在自己的車裡，

每天得花一個半小時上下班，

after an hour and a half of commute every day,

that reality looks very different.

現實變得完全不同。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Nothing --

彷彿一切都不存在──

not public radio,

沒有廣播節目，

沒有播客──

no podcast --

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Not even mindfulness meditation

甚至無法靜下心來冥想，

makes this time worth living.

讓等待的時間稍微有些意義。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

這不是很荒謬嗎？

Isn't it absurd

that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour

我們發明了汽車， 時速可以達到 130 英里，

and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?

但是我們現在開車的速度 卻跟 19 世紀的馬車一樣？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

In the US alone,

光是在美國，

we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014.

在 2014 年我們就花費了 296 億小時在通勤上。

With that amount of time,

將這些時間加起來，

ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.

已經足夠讓古埃及人 蓋好 26 座吉薩金字塔。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We do that in one year.

而我們只要一年就做到了。

A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.

這實在很浪費時間、精神 和人類的潛能。

幾十年來，

For decades,

our remedy for congestion was simple:

我們解決交通堵塞的方法很簡單：

build new roads or enlarge existing ones.

建造新的或是拓寬原有的道路。

And it worked.

而這個方法有效。

It worked admirably for Paris,

這個方法在巴黎有效，

when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings

當時這座城市拆毀了數百座歷史建築，

to create 85 miles

只為了建造 85 英里長，

of transportation-friendly boulevards.

便於交通運輸的林蔭大道。

And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities.

對於快速成長的新興城市， 這個方法仍然有效。

But in more established urban centers,

但是在發展成熟的城市中心，

significant network expansions are almost impossible:

大幅度擴充路網幾乎是不可能的：

habitat is just too dense,

因為建築過於密集，

real estate, too expensive

土地也過於昂貴，

and public finances, too fragile.

而公共財政又脆弱不堪。

Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick,

我們城市的血管系統 堵塞得愈來愈嚴重，

它生病了，我們應該重視此事。

and we should pay attention.

我們目前的思維是行不通的。

Our current way of thinking is not working.

For our transportation to flow,

為了讓我們的交通流動順暢，

需要新的靈感來源。

we need a new source of inspiration.

我在交通運輸部門工作了 16 年，

So after 16 years working in transportation,

my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer.

在一次和生技領域的客戶談話時， 我突然靈光一閃！

She was telling me how her treatment

她告訴我，

她如何運用血管系統的特性， 來治療病人。

was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system.

"Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system --

「哇！」我想，「我們的血管系統──

我們體內所有的靜脈和動脈，

all the veins and arteries in our body

making miracles of logistics every day."

每天都在進行奇蹟般的運送工作。」

This is the moment I realized

那時我意識到，

that biology has been in the transportation business

生物已經進行了

for billions of years.

數十億年的運輸工作。

It has been testing countless solutions

測試過無數種解決方式，

to move nutrients, gases and proteins.

來運送養分、氣體和蛋白質。

It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.

這真的是世界上 最複雜又尖端的運輸實驗室。

So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us?

那麼，是否解決交通問題的答案， 其實來自我們身體之中？

I wanted to know:

我想知道：

Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives,

為什麼在大多數生物的體內， 血液都能在血管中順暢流動，

但是大城市的交通卻每天都在堵塞？

when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis?

And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks.

事實上，你得把它們視為 兩種完全不同的網路。

不曉得你知不知道，

I don't know if you realize,

but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies --

我們每個人體內都有 長達 60,000 英里的血管 －－

60,000 miles.

60,000 英里。

That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference,

這個長度是地球圓周的兩倍半，

inside you.

就在你身體裡面。

What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us,

這代表著血管佈滿我們身體內部，

not just under the surface of our skin.

而不只是在表皮之下。

But if you look at our cities,

但是，如果你看看我們的城市，

yes, we have some underground subway systems

是的，我們擁有地下捷運系統，

and some tunnels and bridges,

隧道和橋樑，

and also some helicopters in the sky.

天上還有直升機。

But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground,

但是我們大多數的交通運輸 集中在地面上，

on the surface.

在地表上。

So in other words,

所以換句話說，

while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us,

我們的血管系統， 在人體內是三維的立體分佈，

但是我們的都市交通， 大部分還是二維的平面結構。

our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional.

And so what we need is to embrace that verticality.

所以我們需要的是往垂直方向發展。

If our surface grid is saturated,

如果我們的交通網已經飽和，

well, let's elevate our traffic.

讓我們把它往上提高。

This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams --

這是可以跨越堵塞車潮的 中國公車概念──

that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement

這個令人大開眼界的新方法， 讓我們重新思考

在城市中，空間和移動的關係。

inside our cities.

And we can go higher,

接著我們可以繼續上昇，

and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid.

把運輸系統懸吊起來， 就像輸電網路一樣。

Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing

特拉維夫和阿布達比，

都正在測試磁浮懸吊的運輸系統。

these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods.

And we can keep climbing, and fly.

我們還可以繼續往上升， 然後飛起來。

The fact that a company like Airbus

事實上，像空中巴士 這樣的航空公司，

is now seriously working on flying urban taxis

正在努力研究 適用於都市的飛行計程車，

is telling us something.

這帶給我們一些啟示。

Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu

飛行汽車終於從科幻電影的場景，

to attractive business-case territory.

來到讓人期待的商業領域。

And that's an exciting moment.

這是一個令人激動的時刻。

So building this 3-D transportation network

所以建立三維的立體交通網路，

是我們減輕和解決 交通堵塞的辦法之一。

is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams.

But it's not the only one.

但這並不是唯一的方法。

We have to question

我們需要質疑 過去所做的一些重要選擇，

other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use.

例如我們所使用的運輸工具。

Just imagine a very familiar scene:

試著想像一個熟悉的場景：

You've been driving for 42 minutes.

你已經開了 42 分鐘的車。

The two kids behind you are getting restless.

在你身後的兩個孩子， 越來越感到焦躁不安。

And you're late.

而且你已經遲到了。

Do you see that slow car in front of you?

你看到前面那台龜速的車子嗎？

Always comes when you're late, right?

每次當你遲到了， 他們就會出現，對吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

That driver is looking for parking.

那輛車的駕駛正在找停車位。

There is no parking spot available in the area,

這個地區根本沒有空的停車位，

but how would he know?

但是他怎麼可能知道？

It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated

據估計，都市中 高達 30％ 的交通堵塞，

都是因為找停車位所引起的。

by drivers looking for parking.

你看到你周圍的 100 輛車子了嗎？

Do you see the 100 cars around you?

Eighty-five of them only have one passenger.

其中的 85 輛車只載了一個人。

Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus.

這 85 位汽車駕駛，可以全部 坐進一輛倫敦的紅色巴士。

So the question is:

所以問題是：

Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most?

為什麼如此浪費 人們最需要的空間？

Why are we doing this to ourselves?

為什麼我們要這樣做？

Biology would never do this.

在生物學上，這絕對不會發生。

Space inside our arteries is fully utilized.

我們體內血管的空間， 都被充分的利用。

At every heartbeat,

每次心跳時，

a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells

血壓將百萬個紅血球

into massive trains of oxygen

帶入大量的氧氣，

that quickly flow throughout our body.

迅速地運送到我們的全身。

And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either.

同樣，我們體內紅血球的狹小空間， 也完全沒有被浪費。

In healthy conditions,

在健康的情況下，

more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized.

95% 以上的氧氣容量 都被完全利用。

Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities

你能否想像，如果我們在都市中 所使用的交通工具

were 95 percent full,

都有 95% 的使用率，

可以增加多少空間， 讓你自由行走、騎自行車，

all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike

and to enjoy our cities?

並且享受各種都市生活？

The reason blood is so incredibly efficient

血液具有神奇的高效率，

is that our red blood cells are not dedicated

是因為我們的紅血球並不是專屬於

to specific organs or tissues;

特定的器官或組織；

otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins.

否則，我們的血管 也可能會發生交通堵塞。

No, they're shared.

不，它們是所有器官共享的。

They're shared by all the cells of our body.

它們是由身體內所有細胞共享的。

And because our network is so extensive,

而且因為血管的分佈如此廣泛，

each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen

我們體內 37 兆細胞 當中的每一個，

都能在有需要時精確地取得氧氣。

precisely when it needs them.

Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation.

血液同時兼具 整合與獨特的運輸形式。

But for our cities,

但是對於我們的城市，

我們一直在堅持某些原則。

we've been stuck.

We've been stuck in an endless debate

我們一直陷於無止境的爭論：

between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems.

應該創造一個汽車為中心的社會， 或是提供廣泛的公共運輸系統？

I think we should transcend this.

我認為我們應該超越這一點。

I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars

我認為，我們可以結合兩者： 能夠像汽車一樣便利，

and the efficiencies of trains and buses.

同時和火車、巴士一樣 有效率的交通工具。

Just imagine.

想像一下。

You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train,

你正舒服地坐在快速、平穩的 市區列車上。

和其他的 1200 名乘客一起。

along with 1,200 passengers.

The problem with urban trains

問題在於市區列車

is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times

可能需要停車五次、 十次甚至十五次，

才會抵達你的目的地。

before your final destination.

What if in this train you didn't have to stop?

如果這列火車不需要停止呢？

In this train,

在這列火車上，

wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving

車廂可以在移動中進行動態分離，

變成一部輕便、無人駕駛的巴士，

and become express, driverless buses

that move on a secondary road network.

行駛於次要道路路網上。

所以，一站都不需要停，

And so without a single stop,

nor a lengthy transfer,

也不用花時間轉車，

you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb.

你現在所搭乘的 就是直達目的地的小巴士。

And when you get close,

而當你接近目的地時，

the section you're sitting in detaches

你的座位區塊會分離，

and self-drives you right to your doorstep.

然後自動載送您到家門口。

It is collective and individual at the same time.

它在同一時間提供了 整合與個人化的運輸形式。

This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.

這會是一種共享、模組化、 無人駕駛的未來交通工具。

Now ...

現在……

as if walking in a city buzzing with drones,

即使你漫步在充滿著無人機、

flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods

飛天計程車、模組化公車 和磁浮懸吊運輸系統的城市中，

was not exotic enough,

都還不夠新奇。

我認為還有另一種思維正逐漸興起，

I think there is another force in action

將會讓你對於都市的交通 感到不可思議。

that will make urban traffic mesmerizing.

If you think about it,

如果你想一下，

無人駕駛汽車目前的設計方式，

the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way

仍然是為了適應人類的道路系統。

into a traffic grid made by and for humans.

They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple,

它們正努力學習交通規則， 這還算是比較簡單的，

and coping with human unpredictability,

還要應付人類的不可預測性，

which is more challenging.

那才是更大的挑戰。

但是，當整座城市都變成無人駕駛， 會發生什麼事？

But what would happen when whole cities become driverless?

Would we need traffic lights?

我們還需要紅綠燈嗎？

Would we need lanes?

我們還需要車道標線嗎？

How about speed limits?

我們還需要速限嗎？

Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes.

紅血球不必順著標線流動。

They never stop at red lights.

也不必遇到紅燈時停下來。

In the first driverless cities,

在第一座無人駕駛的城市，

you would have no red lights and no lanes.

就完全沒有紅綠燈跟車道標線。

當所有的車輛都是無人駕駛， 並且互相連線時，

And when all the cars are driverless and connected,

everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum.

所有過程都能事先預測， 而反應時間也能降到最少。

They can drive much faster

它們可以開得更快，

也能主動採取任何合理的駕駛行為， 無論是自己加速，

and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up

或是讓周圍的車輛加速。

or the cars around them.

So instead of rigid traffic rules,

所以，固定的交通規則將會消失，

flow will be regulated

取而代之的是具有動態特性、

by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms.

能持續自我改善演算法的 交通流量調節方式。

The result: a strange traffic

結果將產生一種全新的交通模式，

that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns

同時結合了德國的高速公路 快速、平穩與精確特性，

and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.

以及孟買的十字路口 所具有的創意與活力。

(Laughter)

交通......（笑聲）

Traffic will be functionally exuberant.

交通運輸將會更為生氣蓬勃。

It will be liquid like our blood.

就像是我們體內血液的流動。

And by a strange paradox,

很弔詭的是：

the more robotized our traffic grid will be,

我們的交通網路愈是自動化，

the more organic and alive its movement will feel.

人們愈能在移動過程中 感覺到有機和活力。

所以，是的，

So yes,

biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today.

現今的生物擁有聰明運輸的特性。

But this process has taken billions of years,

但是，這是歷經數十億年的過程，

and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations.

經過不斷地重複和突變而來的。

We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system.

我們無法再等待數十億年， 來改良運輸系統。

We now have the dreams,

現在，我們擁有夢想，

the concepts

我們擁有觀念，

and the technology

我們還擁有技術

to create 3-D transportation networks,

來建造立體的交通運輸網路，

invent new vehicles

發明新的運輸工具，

並改變我們的城市動線。

and change the flow in our cities.

我們開始行動吧！

Let's do it.

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）