James B. Glattfelder: Who controls the world?

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Nikola Mitrovic Lektor: Boško Eraković

''Kada je kriza stigla,

"When the crisis came,

ozbiljna ograničenja postojeće ekonomije

the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models

i finansijskih modela ubrzo su postala očigledna.''

immediately became apparent."

"Takođe postoji jako ubeđenje, koje i ja delim

"There is also a strong belief, which I share,

that bad or oversimplistic and overconfident economics

da su loše ili prejednostavne i samosvesne ekonomije

helped create the crisis."

pomogle stvaranje krize.''

Now, you've probably all heard of similar criticism

Sada, verovatno ste svi čuli za slične kritike

koje dolaze od ljudi koji su skeptični zbog kapitalizma.

coming from people who are skeptical of capitalism.

But this is different.

Ali ovo je drugačije.

Ovo potiče iz srca finansija.

This is coming from the heart of finance.

The first quote is from Jean-Claude Trichet

Prvi citat je Žan-Klod Trišea

when he was governor of the European Central Bank.

kada je bio guverner Evropske centralne banke

The second quote is from the head of the UK Financial Services Authority.

Drugi citat je iz glave

upravnika Finansijskih usluga Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.

Are these people implying

Da li zapravo ovi ljudi nagoveštavaju

that we don't understand the economic systems

da mi ne razumemo ekonomske sisteme

that drive our modern societies?

koji upravljaju modernim društvima?

It gets worse.

Postaje još gore.

"We spend billions of dollars

''Mi trošimo milijarde dolara

trying to understand the origins of the universe,

pokušavajući da razumemo poreklo univerzuma

dok još uvek ne razumemo ni uslove

while we still don't understand the conditions for a stable society,

za stabilno društvo, za funkcionalnu ekonomiju ili za mir.''

a functioning economy, or peace."

What's happening here? How can this be possible?

Šta se ovde dešava? Da li je ovo moguće?

Do we really understand more about the fabric of reality

Da li zaista razumemo više o materijalu stvarnosti

than we do about the fabric which emerges from our human interactions?

nego što razumemo materijal

koji nastaje iz naših ljudskih interakcija?

Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

Nažalost, odgovor je da.

But there's an intriguing solution

Ali postoji intrigantno rešenje koje potiče

which is coming from what is known as the science of complexity.

od onoga što je poznato kao nauka složenosti.

Da bi se objasnilo šta ovo znači i šta zapravo ovo jeste,

To explain what this means and what this thing is,

please let me quickly take a couple of steps back.

molim vas, dopustite mi da se za čas vratim nekoliko koraka unazad.

Igrom slučaja završio sam u fizici.

I ended up in physics by accident.

It was a random encounter when I was young,

To je bio slučajan susret kada sam bio mlad,

and since then, I've often wondered about the amazing success of physics

i od tada, često sam se pitao

o neverovatnom uspehu fizike

prilikom opisivanja stvarnosti u kojoj se budimo svakog dana.

in describing the reality we wake up in every day.

U suštini, možete razmišljati o fizici na sledeći način.

In a nutshell, you can think of physics as follows.

So you take a chunk of reality you want to understand

Uzmete komad stvarnosti koju želite da razumete

and you translate it into mathematics.

i to onda prevodite u matematiku.

Kodirate ga u jednačine.

You encode it into equations.

Then, predictions can be made and tested.

Tada se predviđanja mogu obaviti i testirati.

We're actually really lucky that this works,

Mi smo zapravo veoma srećni što ovo radi,

because no one really knows why the thoughts in our heads

zbog toga što niko zaista ne zna zašto bi misli u našim glavama

should actually relate to the fundamental workings of the universe.

trebalo zapravo da imaju veze sa fundamentalnim radom univerzuma.

Despite the success, physics has its limits.

Uprkos uspehu, fizika ima svoja ograničenja.

As Dirk Helbing pointed out in the last quote,

Kao što je Dirk Helbing naglasio u poslednjem citatu,

mi ne shvatamo istinski složenost

we don't really understand the complexity that relates to us, that surrounds us.

koja ima veze s nama, koja nas okružuje.

This paradox is what got me interested in complex systems.

Ovaj paradoks me je zainteresovao za kompleksne sisteme.

So these are systems which are made up

Dakle, ovo su sistemi koji su stvoreni

of many interconnected or interacting parts:

od više međusobno povezanih ili interaktivnih delova:

swarms of birds or fish,

najezde ptica ili riba, kolonije mrava,

ant colonies, ecosystems, brains, financial markets.

ekosistemi, mozgovi, finansijska tržišta.

These are just a few examples.

Ovo je samo nekoliko primera.

Interestingly, complex systems are very hard to map

Zanimljivo, složeni sistemi su veoma teški za mapiranje

into mathematical equations,

u matematičke jednačine,

so the usual physics approach doesn't really work here.

tako da uobičajeni fizički pristup ovde baš i ne funkcioniše.

So what do we know about complex systems?

Pa šta mi znamo o složenim sistemima?

Well, it turns out that what looks like complex behavior from the outside

Pa, ispostavlja se da ono što izgleda kao složeno ponašanje

spolja je zapravo rezultat

is actually the result of a few simple rules of interaction.

nekoliko jednostavnih pravila interakcije.

Ovo znači da možete zaboraviti na jednačine

This means you can forget about the equations

and just start to understand the system

i početi samo da razumete sistem

posmatrajući interakcije,

by looking at the interactions,

so you can actually forget about the equations

pa možete zapravo zaboraviti jednačine

and you just start to look at the interactions.

i početi samo da posmatrate interakcije.

And it gets even better, because most complex systems

I čak postaje bolje, jer većina složenih sistema

have this amazing property called emergence.

poseduje to neverovatno svojstvo koje se zove ispoljavanje.

So this means that the system as a whole suddenly starts to show a behavior

Tako da ovo znači da sistem kao celina

iznenada počinje da pokazuje ponašanje

which cannot be understood or predicted

koje ne može biti razumljivo ili predviđeno

by looking at the components of the system.

posmatranjem delova sistema.

So the whole is literally more than the sum of its parts.

Dakle celina je bukvalno više od zbira njenih delova.

And all of this also means

I sve ovo takođe znači da možete zaboraviti

that you can forget about the individual parts of the system,

pojedinačne delove sistema, koliko su oni složeni.

how complex they are.

So if it's a cell or a termite or a bird,

I ako je to ćelija ili termit ili ptica,

you just focus on the rules of interaction.

samo se fokusirate na pravila o interakciji.

Kao rezultat, mreže su idealan pokazatelj

As a result, networks are ideal representations of complex systems.

složenih sistema.

Čvorovi u mreži

The nodes in the network are the system's components,

su komponente sistema

i veze su date interakcijama.

and the links are given by the interactions.

So what equations are for physics,

Dakle ono što su jednačine za fiziku,

complex networks are for the study of complex systems.

to su složene mreže za učenje složenih sistema.

This approach has been very successfully applied

Ovaj pristup je bio veoma uspešno primenjen

to many complex systems in physics, biology,

na mnogim složenim sistemima u fizici, biologiji,

computer science, the social sciences,

kompjuterskim naukama, socijalnim naukama,

but what about economics?

ali šta je sa ekonomijom?

Where are economic networks?

Gde su ekonomske mreže?

This is a surprising and prominent gap in the literature.

Ovo je iznenađujuć i značajan jaz u literaturi.

Istraživanje koje smo objavili prošle godine, pod nazivom

The study we published last year, called "The Network of Global Corporate Control,"

''Mreža globalne korporativne kontrole'',

bilo je prva obimna analiza ekonomskih mreža.

was the first extensive analysis of economic networks.

The study went viral on the Internet

Studija je bila dostupna na internetu

and it attracted a lot of attention from the international media.

i privukla je mnogo pažnje internacionalnih medija.

This is quite remarkable, because, again, why did no one look at this before?

Ovo je prilično izvanredno, zato što, opet,

zašto niko nije pogledao ovo ranije?

Similar data has been around for quite some time.

Slični podaci su bili tu duže vreme.

What we looked at in detail was ownership networks.

Ono što smo detaljno posmatrali bile su vlasničke mreže.

Dakle ovde su čvorovi kompanije, ljudi, vlade

So here the nodes are companies, people, governments, foundations, etc.

fondacije, itd.

And the links represent the shareholding relations,

I veze predstavljaju akcionarske odnose,

so shareholder A has x percent of the shares in company B.

tako da akcionar A ima x procenata deonica u kompaniji B.

And we also assign a value to the company given by the operating revenue.

I mi takođe dodeljujemo vrednost kompaniji

datu putem operativnog prihoda.

Dakle vlasničke mreže otkrivaju obrasce

So ownership networks reveal the patterns of shareholding relations.

akcionarskih veza.

U ovom malu primeru, možete videti

In this little example, you can see a few financial institutions

nekoliko finansijskih institucija

sa nekim od mnoštva istaknutih veza.

with some of the many links highlighted.

Now, you may think that no one looked at this before

E sad, možete pomisliti da niko nije razmišljao o ovome ranije

because ownership networks are really, really boring to study.

zbog toga što su vlasničke mreže

veoma, veoma dosadne za proučavanje.

Well, as ownership is related to control,

Dakle, kako je vlasništvo vezano za kontrolu,

as I shall explain later,

kao što ću objasniti kasnije,

looking at ownership networks

gledajući na vlasništva mreža

actually can give you answers to questions like,

zapravo vam mogu dati odgovore na pitanja kao što su,

who are the key players?

ko su glavni igrači?

How are they organized? Are they isolated?

Kako su oni organizovani? Jesu li izolovani?

Are they interconnected?

Jesu li međusobno povezani?

And what is the overall distribution of control?

I šta je ukupna raspodela kontrole?

In other words, who controls the world?

Drugim rečima, ko kontroliše svet?

I think this is an interesting question.

Mislim da je ovo zanimljivo pitanje.

I ima posledice za sistemski rizik.

And it has implications for systemic risk.

Ovo je mera za to koliko je ranjiv sistem u celini.

This is a measure of how vulnerable a system is overall.

Visok stepen međusobnog povezivanja

A high degree of interconnectivity can be bad for stability,

može biti loš za stabilnost,

because then the stress can spread through the system like an epidemic.

jer se onda stres može širiti kroz sistem,

kao epidemija.

Scientists have sometimes criticized economists

Naučnici su ponekad kritikovali ekonomiste

koji veruju da su ideje i koncepti

who believe ideas and concepts are more important than empirical data,

važniji od empirijskih podataka,

because a foundational guideline in science is:

jer je temeljna smernica u nauci:

Pustimo podatke da govore. Ok. Uradimo to.

Let the data speak. OK. Let's do that.

So we started with a database containing 13 million ownership relations from 2007.

Tako smo počeli sa bazom podataka koja sadrži

13 miliona vlasničkih odnosa od 2007.

This is a lot of data, and because we wanted to find out

Ovo je mnogo podataka i zbog toga što smo želeli otkriti,

ko vlada svetom,

"who rules the world,"

odlučili smo da se fokusiramo na transnacionalne korporacije

we decided to focus on transnational corporations,

or "TNCs," for short.

ili skraćeno TNC.

These are companies that operate in more than one country,

Ovo su kompanije koje posluju u više od jedne države,

and we found 43,000.

i mi smo ih našli 43.000.

U sledećem koraku, izgradili smo mrežu oko ovih kompanija,

In the next step, we built the network around these companies,

so we took all the TNCs' shareholders,

tako da smo uzeli TNC-ove akcionare,

and the shareholders' shareholders, etc.,

i akcionarske akcionare itd.,

all the way upstream, and we did the same downstream,

sve uzvodno i uradili smo isto nizvodno

and ended up with a network containing 600,000 nodes

i završilo se mrežom koja sadrži 600.000 čvorova

and one million links.

i milion veza.

This is the TNC network which we analyzed.

Ovo je TNC-ova mreža koju smo analizirali.

I ispostavlja se da je struktuirana na sledeći način.

And it turns out to be structured as follows.

So you have a periphery and a center

Dakle, imate periferiju i centar

which contains about 75 percent of all the players,

koji sadrže oko 75 procenata svih igrača

i u centru se nalazi ovo malo ali dominantno jezgro

and in the center, there's this tiny but dominant core

koje je napravljeno od snažno povezanih kompanija.

which is made up of highly interconnected companies.

To give you a better picture,

Da biste dobili jasniju sliku,

think about a metropolitan area.

razmislite o području jedne metropole.

So you have the suburbs and the periphery,

Dakle imate predgrađa i periferiju,

you have a center, like a financial district,

imate centar kao finansijsku oblast,

then the core will be something like

onda bi jezgro bilo nešto kao

the tallest high-rise building in the center.

najviša zgrada u centru.

And we already see signs of organization going on here.

I već vidimo znake organizacije koja se ovde dešava.

36 percent of the TNCs are in the core only,

Trideset šest procenata TNC-ova su samo u srži,

but they make up 95 percent of the total operating revenue of all TNCs.

ali oni čine 95 procenata ukupnog operativnog prihoda

celog TNC-a.

U redu, sada smo analizirali strukturu,

OK, so now we analyzed the structure,

so how does this relate to the control?

kako se onda ovo odnosi na kontrolu?

Well, ownership gives voting rights to shareholders.

Dakle, vlasništvo daje pravo glasa akcionarima.

This is the normal notion of control.

Ovo je normalna predstava kontrole.

I takođe postoje različiti modeli koji vam dozvoljavaju da računate

And there are different models

which allow you to compute the control you get from ownership.

kontrolu koju dobijate od vlasništva.

Ako imate više od 50 procenata akcija u kompaniji,

If you have more than 50 percent of the shares in a company,

dobijate i kontrolu,

you get control,

but usually, it depends on the relative distribution of shares.

ali najčešće to zavisi od relativne raspodele akcija.

And the network really matters.

I mreža je zaista bitna.

About 10 years ago, Mr. Tronchetti Provera

Pre oko 10 godina, g-din Tronketi Provera

je posedovao i kontrolisao malu kompaniju,

had ownership and control in a small company,

which had ownership and control in a bigger company.

koja je posedovala i kontrolisala veću kompaniju.

Shvatate ideju.

You get the idea.

This ended up giving him control in Telecom Italia with a leverage of 26.

Ovo se završilo dajući mu kontrolu u italijanskom telekomu

sa leveridžom od 26.

So this means that, with each euro he invested,

Tako da ovo znači da, sa svakim eurom koji je uložio,

he was able to move 26 euros of market value

on je bio u stanju da pomera 26 eura tržišne vrednosti

kroz lanac vlasničkih odnosa.

through the chain of ownership relations.

Now what we actually computed in our study was the control over the TNCs' value.

Ono što smo zapravo izračunali u našoj studiji

jeste kontrola preko TNC-ove vrednosti.

Ovo nam je omogućilo da odredimo stepen uticaja

This allowed us to assign a degree of influence to each shareholder.

na svakom akcionaru.

Ovo je veoma mnogo u smislu

This is very much in the sense of Max Weber's idea of potential power,

ideje Maksa Vebera o potencijalnoj moći,

koja je verovatnoća nametanja volje pojedinca

which is the probability of imposing one's own will

despite the opposition of others.

uprkos otporu ostalih.

If you want to compute the flow in an ownership network,

Ako želite da izračunate protok u vlasničkoj mreži,

this is what you have to do.

evo šta treba da uradite.

It's actually not that hard to understand.

To zapravo nije toliko teško za razumevanje.

Let me explain by giving you this analogy.

Dozvolite da vam objasnim kroz ovo poređenje.

Dakle pomislite o protoku vode kroz cevi

So think about water flowing in pipes, where the pipes have different thickness.

gde su cevi različite debljine.

So similarly, the control is flowing in the ownership networks

Slično tome, kontrola teče u vlasničkim mrežama

i sakuplja se u čvorovima.

and is accumulating at the nodes.

So what did we find after computing all this network control?

Dakle šta smo pronašli nakon obračunavanja sve ove mrežne kontrole?

Pa, ispostavlja se da 737 najvećih akcionara

Well, it turns out that the 737 top shareholders

have the potential to collectively control 80 percent of the TNCs' value.

ima potencijal da kolektivno upravlja

sa 80 procenata TNC-ove vrednosti.

Now remember, we started out with 600,000 nodes,

Sada zapamtite, započeli smo sa 600.000 čvorova,

so these 737 top players make up a bit more than 0.1 percent.

tako da ovih 737 najvećih igrača

čini malo više od 0,1 procenta.

They're mostly financial institutions in the US and the UK.

To su uglavnom finansijske institucije u SAD i Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu.

And it gets even more extreme.

I sve ovo postaje ekstremnije.

Ima 146 najboljih igrača u središtu

There are 146 top players in the core,

i oni zajedno imaju mogućnost da zajednički upravljaju

and they together have the potential to collectively control

40 percent of the TNCs' value.

sa 40 procenata TNC-ove vrednosti.

Šta bi trebalo da ponesete kući od svega ovoga?

What should you take home from all of this?

Well, the high degree of control you saw is very extreme by any standard.

Pa, visok stepen kontrole koji ste videli

je veoma ekstreman po svim standardima.

Visok stepen međusobne povezanosti

The high degree of interconnectivity of the top players in the core

najboljih igrača u jezgru

može predstavljati značajan sistemski rizik za globalnu ekonomiju

could pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy.

i mogli bismo lako povratiti TNC mrežu

And we could easily reproduce the TNC network

with a few simple rules.

uz nekoliko jednostavnih pravila.

Ovo znači da su te strukture verovatno rezultat

This means that its structure is probably the result of self-organization.

samoorganizovanja.

Ovo je vanredno vlasništvo koje zavisi

It's an emergent property which depends on the rules of interaction in the system,

od pravila saradnje u sistemu,

so it's probably not the result of a top-down approach

tako da verovatno nije rezultat pristupa od vrha na dole

like a global conspiracy.

kao globalne zavere.

Naša studija ''je utisak površine meseca.

Our study "is an impression of the moon's surface.

It's not a street map."

To nije ulična mapa.''

So you should take the exact numbers in our study with a grain of salt,

Tako da bi trebalo da uzmete tačan broj u našoj studiji

sa rezervom,

yet it "gave us a tantalizing glimpse of a brave new world of finance."

ipak, on ''nam daje mučan pregled

vrlog novog sveta finansija.''

Nadamo se da smo otvorili vrata za više istraživanja u ovom pravcu

We hope to have opened the door for more such research in this direction,

so the remaining unknown terrain will be charted in the future.

pa će preostali nepoznat teren biti ucrtan u budućnosti.

And this is slowly starting.

I ovo polako uzima maha.

We're seeing the emergence of long-term and highly-funded programs

Mi vidimo hitnost dugoročnih

i dobro finansiranih programa čiji cilj je razumevanje

which aim at understanding our networked world

našeg umreženog sveta s tačke gledišta složenosti.

from a complexity point of view.

Ali ovo je putovanje upravo počelo,

But this journey has only just begun,

so we will have to wait before we see the first results.

pa ćemo morati da čekamo pre nego vidimo prve rezultate.

Now there is still a big problem, in my opinion.

Postoji još uvek veliki problem, po mom mišljenju.

Ideje u vezi sa finansijama, ekonomijom, politikom,

Ideas relating to finance, economics, politics, society,

društvom, su veoma često ukaljane

are very often tainted by people's personal ideologies.

ličnim ljudskim ideologijama.

I really hope that this complexity perspective

Zaista se nadam da ova perspektiva složenosti

allows for some common ground to be found.

omogućava pronalazak neke zajedničke osnove.

Bilo bi stvarno odlično ako bi imala moć

It would be really great if it has the power

to help end the gridlock created by conflicting ideas,

da pomogne prekid zastoja nastao suprotstavljanjem ideja,

which appears to be paralyzing our globalized world.

koji izgleda paralizuje naš globalizovani svet.

Reality is so complex, we need to move away from dogma.

Stvarnost je veoma složena, moramo se izmaći od dogmi.

But this is just my own personal ideology.

Ali ovo je samo moja lična ideologija.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)