James B. Glattfelder: Who controls the world?

539,911 views ・ 2013-02-13

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Prevoditelj: Mladen Barešić Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
"U trenutku izbijanja krize,
00:16
"When the crisis came,
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ozbiljna ograničenja postojećih ekonomskih
00:18
the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models
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i financijskih modela postala su očita."
00:23
immediately became apparent."
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"Neki snažno vjeruju, i ja dijelim njihovo mišljenje,
00:27
"There is also a strong belief, which I share,
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00:31
that bad or oversimplistic and overconfident economics
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da je loša ili isuviše pojednostavljena i presamouvjerena ekonomska znanost
00:36
helped create the crisis."
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pripomogla nastajanju krize."
00:38
Now, you've probably all heard of similar criticism
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Vjerojatno ste svi čuli slične kritike
od ljudi koji su skeptici glede kapitalizma.
00:41
coming from people who are skeptical of capitalism.
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00:44
But this is different.
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Ali, ovo je nešto drugo.
Ovo dolazi iz srca financija.
00:46
This is coming from the heart of finance.
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00:49
The first quote is from Jean-Claude Trichet
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Prvi je citat Jean-Claudea Tricheta,
00:52
when he was governor of the European Central Bank.
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iz vremena dok je bio guverner Europske središnje banke.
00:56
The second quote is from the head of the UK Financial Services Authority.
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Drugi je citat čelnika
Britanskog regulatora financijskih usluga (FSA).
01:02
Are these people implying
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Sugeriraju li ovi ljudi
01:03
that we don't understand the economic systems
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da mi ne razumijemo ekonomske sustave
01:06
that drive our modern societies?
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koji pokreću naša suvremena društva?
01:09
It gets worse.
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Postaje gore.
01:11
"We spend billions of dollars
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"Trošimo milijarde dolara
01:13
trying to understand the origins of the universe,
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u nastojanjima da spoznamo izvore svemira
iako istodobno još uvijek ne razumijemo preduvjete
01:17
while we still don't understand the conditions for a stable society,
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za stabilno društvo, djelotvorno gospodarstvo, ili mir.
01:23
a functioning economy, or peace."
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01:29
What's happening here? How can this be possible?
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Što se ovdje zbiva? Kako je ovo moguće?
01:32
Do we really understand more about the fabric of reality
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Znamo li doista više o tkivu od kojeg je sazdana naša zbilja,
01:35
than we do about the fabric which emerges from our human interactions?
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no što znamo o tkivu
koje proizlazi iz naših međusobnih odnosa?
01:39
Unfortunately, the answer is yes.
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Nažalost, odgovor je da.
01:42
But there's an intriguing solution
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Ali, postoji i zanimljivo rješenje koje potječe
01:45
which is coming from what is known as the science of complexity.
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iz onoga što se naziva znanost o kompleksnosti.
Da bih objasnio što to znači i što to jest,
01:51
To explain what this means and what this thing is,
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01:53
please let me quickly take a couple of steps back.
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dopustite mi da se nakratko vratim u prošlost.
U fizici sam završio slučajno.
01:57
I ended up in physics by accident.
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01:59
It was a random encounter when I was young,
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Bio je to slučajan susret dok sam bio još mlad,
02:02
and since then, I've often wondered about the amazing success of physics
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i otad sam se često čudio
nevjerojatnom uspjehu fizike
u opisivanju stvarnosti u kojoj se svakoga dana budimo.
02:07
in describing the reality we wake up in every day.
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Ukratko, o fizici možete razmišljati na sljedeći način.
02:11
In a nutshell, you can think of physics as follows.
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02:14
So you take a chunk of reality you want to understand
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Odaberite djelić stvarnosti, kojeg želite razumjeti
02:17
and you translate it into mathematics.
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i prevedite ga u matematički jezik.
Pretvorite ga u jednadžbe.
02:21
You encode it into equations.
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02:24
Then, predictions can be made and tested.
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Potom su moguća predviđanja, kao i njihovo testiranje.
02:28
We're actually really lucky that this works,
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Zapravo, imamo sreće što to funkcionira,
02:30
because no one really knows why the thoughts in our heads
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jer nitko doista ne zna zašto bi misli u našim glavama
02:33
should actually relate to the fundamental workings of the universe.
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imale ikakve veze s temeljnim djelovanjem svemira.
02:39
Despite the success, physics has its limits.
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Unatoč tom uspjehu, i fizika ima svojih ograničenja.
02:42
As Dirk Helbing pointed out in the last quote,
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Kao što je Dirk Helbing istaknuo u posljednjem citatu,
uopće ne razumijemo kompleksnost
02:46
we don't really understand the complexity that relates to us, that surrounds us.
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koja je u odnosu s nama, koja nas okružuje.
02:51
This paradox is what got me interested in complex systems.
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Zbog toga sam se paradoksa zainteresirao za kompleksne sustave.
02:55
So these are systems which are made up
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Ti su, dakle, sustavi sačinjeni
02:57
of many interconnected or interacting parts:
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od mnoštva međusobno povezanih ili djelujućih dijelova:
03:01
swarms of birds or fish,
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jata ptica ili riba, mravlje kolonije,
03:04
ant colonies, ecosystems, brains, financial markets.
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ekosustavi, mozgovi, financijska tržišta.
03:08
These are just a few examples.
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Ovo su tek neki primjeri.
03:12
Interestingly, complex systems are very hard to map
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Zanimljivo, kompleksne je sustave vrlo teško
03:18
into mathematical equations,
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predočiti matematičkim jednadžbama.
03:20
so the usual physics approach doesn't really work here.
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Zato uobičajeni fizikalni pristup nije ovdje primjenjiv.
03:24
So what do we know about complex systems?
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Što, dakle, znamo o kompleksnim sustavima?
03:26
Well, it turns out that what looks like complex behavior from the outside
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Znate, ono što se izvana čini kao kompleksno ponašanje
zapravo je rezultat
03:32
is actually the result of a few simple rules of interaction.
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svega nekoliko jednostavnih pravila međudjelovanja.
Znači, jednadžbe možete zaboraviti
03:38
This means you can forget about the equations
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03:42
and just start to understand the system
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i započeti s razumijevanjem sustava
promatrajući međudjelovanja.
03:44
by looking at the interactions,
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03:46
so you can actually forget about the equations
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Dakle, jednostavno zaboravite jednadžbe
03:49
and you just start to look at the interactions.
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i započnite promatrati međudjelovanja.
03:51
And it gets even better, because most complex systems
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Štoviše, većina kompleksnih sustava
03:54
have this amazing property called emergence.
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ima to zadivljujuće svojstvo zvano spontano pojavljivanje.
03:57
So this means that the system as a whole suddenly starts to show a behavior
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To znači da sustav kao cjelina
iznenada počinje iskazivati ponašanje
koje se ne može razumjeti niti predvidjeti
04:02
which cannot be understood or predicted
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04:05
by looking at the components of the system.
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promatranjem pojedinih dijelova sustava.
04:07
So the whole is literally more than the sum of its parts.
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Cjelina je tako, doslovno, više od zbroja vlastitih dijelova.
04:11
And all of this also means
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Sve to, također, znači da možete zanemariti
04:13
that you can forget about the individual parts of the system,
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pojedinačne dijelove sustava, i njihovu kompleksnost.
04:18
how complex they are.
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04:19
So if it's a cell or a termite or a bird,
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Prema tome, radi li se o stanici, o termitu, ili o ptici,
04:24
you just focus on the rules of interaction.
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samo se usredotočite na pravila međudjelovanja.
Posljedica je da su mreže savršen prikaz
04:29
As a result, networks are ideal representations of complex systems.
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kompleksnih sustava.
Čvorovi u mreži
04:36
The nodes in the network are the system's components,
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su komponente sustava,
a međudjelovanja predstavljaju poveznice među njima.
04:42
and the links are given by the interactions.
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04:45
So what equations are for physics,
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Prema tome, što su jednadžbe za fiziku,
04:48
complex networks are for the study of complex systems.
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to su kompleksne mreže u proučavanju kompleksnih sustava.
04:52
This approach has been very successfully applied
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Ovaj je pristup vrlo uspješno primijenjen
04:56
to many complex systems in physics, biology,
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na mnoge kompleksne sustave u fizici, biologiji,
04:59
computer science, the social sciences,
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računalnim znanostima, društvenim znanostima.
05:02
but what about economics?
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No, što je s ekonomijom?
05:04
Where are economic networks?
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Gdje su ekonomske mreže?
05:07
This is a surprising and prominent gap in the literature.
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Ovo je iznenađujuća i istaknuta pukotina u literaturi.
Studija koju smo prošle godine objavili pod nazivom
05:12
The study we published last year, called "The Network of Global Corporate Control,"
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"Mreža globalne korporativne kontrole" -
prva je opsežnija analiza ekonomskih mreža.
05:18
was the first extensive analysis of economic networks.
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05:23
The study went viral on the Internet
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Studija se strelovito proširila Internetom
05:26
and it attracted a lot of attention from the international media.
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i privukla podosta pažnje međunarodnih medija.
05:31
This is quite remarkable, because, again, why did no one look at this before?
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To je značajno zbog toga što, ponovno,
zašto to nitko nije prije sagledao?
05:35
Similar data has been around for quite some time.
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Slični su podaci dostupni već neko vrijeme.
05:38
What we looked at in detail was ownership networks.
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Ono što smo mi pozornije sagledali bile su vlasničke mreže.
U tom slučaju čvorovi su tvrtke, ljudi, vlade,
05:44
So here the nodes are companies, people, governments, foundations, etc.
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zaklade i sl.
05:51
And the links represent the shareholding relations,
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Poveznice su predstavljene odnosima s ulagačima,
05:54
so shareholder A has x percent of the shares in company B.
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pa tako Ulagač A posjeduje X posto dionica Tvrtke B.
05:59
And we also assign a value to the company given by the operating revenue.
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Također, tvrtki pridajemo vrijednost
na osnovi njenih operativnih prihoda.
Tako vlasničke mreže otkrivaju obrasce
06:05
So ownership networks reveal the patterns of shareholding relations.
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odnosa među ulagačima.
Na ovom jednostavnom primjeru možete vidjeti
06:11
In this little example, you can see a few financial institutions
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nekoliko financijskih institucija
s nekim poveznicama istaknutijim u mnoštvu drugih.
06:15
with some of the many links highlighted.
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06:19
Now, you may think that no one looked at this before
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Možete pomisliti da nitko ovo ranije nije sagledao
06:21
because ownership networks are really, really boring to study.
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zato što su vlasničke mreže
stvarno, stvarno dosadne za proučavanje.
06:27
Well, as ownership is related to control,
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Međutim, budući da je vlasništvo u izravnoj vezi s kontrolom,
06:31
as I shall explain later,
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kao što ću kasnije obrazložiti,
06:32
looking at ownership networks
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promatranje vlasničkih mreža
06:34
actually can give you answers to questions like,
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može vam, zapravo, dati odgovore na pitanja poput:
06:36
who are the key players?
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Tko su ključni igrači?
06:38
How are they organized? Are they isolated?
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Kako su oni organizirani? Jesu li izdvojeni?
06:40
Are they interconnected?
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Jesu li međusobno povezani?
06:42
And what is the overall distribution of control?
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I kakva je ukupna raspodjela kontrole?
06:46
In other words, who controls the world?
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Drugim riječima, tko kontrolira svijet?
06:49
I think this is an interesting question.
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Mislim da je to zanimljivo pitanje.
I ima utjecaja na sistemski rizik.
06:52
And it has implications for systemic risk.
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Ovo je mjera ukupne ranjivosti sustava.
06:56
This is a measure of how vulnerable a system is overall.
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Visok stupanj međusobne povezanosti
07:02
A high degree of interconnectivity can be bad for stability,
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može loše utjecati na stabilnost,
07:06
because then the stress can spread through the system like an epidemic.
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jer se pritisak tad može proširiti sustavom
poput pošasti.
07:13
Scientists have sometimes criticized economists
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Znanstvenici su katkad kritizirali ekonomiste
koji vjeruju da su zamisli i koncepti
07:16
who believe ideas and concepts are more important than empirical data,
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važniji od empirijskih podataka,
07:21
because a foundational guideline in science is:
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jer temeljna smjernica u znanosti glasi:
Neka podaci govore. Dobro. Učinimo to.
07:25
Let the data speak. OK. Let's do that.
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07:27
So we started with a database containing 13 million ownership relations from 2007.
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Stoga smo započeli s bazom podataka o
13 milijuna vlasničkih odnosa od 2007.
07:34
This is a lot of data, and because we wanted to find out
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To je mnogo podataka, i zato što smo željeli otkriti
tko vlada svijetom,
07:38
"who rules the world,"
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odlučili smo se usredotočiti na transnacionalne korporacije;
07:40
we decided to focus on transnational corporations,
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07:43
or "TNCs," for short.
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ukratko, na TNC-ove.
07:45
These are companies that operate in more than one country,
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Takve tvrtke posluju u više od samo jedne zemlje,
07:48
and we found 43,000.
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i pronašli smo ih 43.000.
U sljedećem smo koraku izgradili mrežu oko tih tvrtki,
07:52
In the next step, we built the network around these companies,
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07:55
so we took all the TNCs' shareholders,
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i uzeli smo u obzir sve njihove dioničare,
07:57
and the shareholders' shareholders, etc.,
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i dioničare njihovih dioničara, itd.
07:59
all the way upstream, and we did the same downstream,
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odozdo prema gore, i odozgo prema dolje,
08:02
and ended up with a network containing 600,000 nodes
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i okončali s mrežom od 600.000 čvorova
08:06
and one million links.
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i milijun poveznica.
08:08
This is the TNC network which we analyzed.
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Ovo je mreža TNC-ova, koju smo razmatrali.
Ispostavilo se da je strukturirana na sljedeći način.
08:12
And it turns out to be structured as follows.
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08:14
So you have a periphery and a center
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Postoji periferija i centar
08:17
which contains about 75 percent of all the players,
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koji sadrži oko 75% svih igrača,
i u centru se nalazi ta sićušna, ali dominantna jezgra
08:22
and in the center, there's this tiny but dominant core
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sačinjena od međusobno visokopovezanih tvrtki.
08:26
which is made up of highly interconnected companies.
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08:30
To give you a better picture,
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Radi bolje ilustracije,
08:32
think about a metropolitan area.
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zamislite velegradsko područje.
08:34
So you have the suburbs and the periphery,
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Ako su ondje predgrađa i periferija,
08:36
you have a center, like a financial district,
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te središte grada kao što je to financijska četvrt,
08:39
then the core will be something like
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tad će jezgra biti nešto poput
08:40
the tallest high-rise building in the center.
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najvišeg nebodera u tom središtu.
08:44
And we already see signs of organization going on here.
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Ovdje su već vidljivi znakovi organiziranja...
08:49
36 percent of the TNCs are in the core only,
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36% TNC-ova nalaze se samo u jezgri,
08:54
but they make up 95 percent of the total operating revenue of all TNCs.
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ali zarađuju 95% ukupnih operativnih prihoda
svih TNC-ova.
Dakle, raščlanili smo strukturu,
09:02
OK, so now we analyzed the structure,
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09:04
so how does this relate to the control?
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no u kakvom je ona odnosu s kontrolom?
09:08
Well, ownership gives voting rights to shareholders.
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Vlasništvo osigurava dioničarima glasačka prava.
09:12
This is the normal notion of control.
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To je uobičajeno shvaćanje kontrole.
Postoje različiti modeli koji vam omogućuju izračunati
09:15
And there are different models
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09:16
which allow you to compute the control you get from ownership.
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kontrolu koju vam vlasništvo osigurava.
Posjedujete li više od 50% dionica tvrtke,
09:21
If you have more than 50 percent of the shares in a company,
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zadobivate kontrolu,
09:24
you get control,
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09:25
but usually, it depends on the relative distribution of shares.
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ali ona obično ovisi o relativnoj raspodjeli dionica.
09:30
And the network really matters.
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A mreža je uistinu bitna.
09:33
About 10 years ago, Mr. Tronchetti Provera
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Prije 10-ak godina, g. Tronchetti Provera
raspolagao je i vlasništvom i nadzorom u maloj tvrtki,
09:36
had ownership and control in a small company,
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09:39
which had ownership and control in a bigger company.
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koja je pak imala vlasničkih udjela i nadzor u većoj tvrtki.
Jasno vam je.
09:43
You get the idea.
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09:44
This ended up giving him control in Telecom Italia with a leverage of 26.
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U konačnici je zadobio kontrolu u Telecom Italia
s utjecajem u razini od 26.
09:51
So this means that, with each euro he invested,
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To znači da je svakim uloženim eurom
09:55
he was able to move 26 euros of market value
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uspio pokrenuti 26 eura tržišne vrijednosti
kroz lanac vlasničkih odnosa.
09:59
through the chain of ownership relations.
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10:02
Now what we actually computed in our study was the control over the TNCs' value.
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Ono što smo doista izračunavali u našoj studiji
bila je kontrola nad vrijednošću TNC-ova.
Na osnovi toga smo svakome dioničaru
10:09
This allowed us to assign a degree of influence to each shareholder.
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dodjeljivali stupanj utjecajnosti.
To je vrlo slično
10:15
This is very much in the sense of Max Weber's idea of potential power,
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zamisli o potencijalnoj moći, Maxa Webera,
tj. vjerojatnosti nametanja vlastite volje
10:20
which is the probability of imposing one's own will
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10:23
despite the opposition of others.
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unatoč suprotstavljanju drugih.
10:27
If you want to compute the flow in an ownership network,
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Želite li izračunati tok u vlasničkoj mreži,
10:32
this is what you have to do.
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evo što trebate učiniti.
10:33
It's actually not that hard to understand.
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Nije to osobito teško razumjeti.
10:36
Let me explain by giving you this analogy.
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Poslužit ću se sljedećom usporedbom...
Zamislite vodu kako kola cijevima
10:39
So think about water flowing in pipes, where the pipes have different thickness.
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različitih debljina.
10:44
So similarly, the control is flowing in the ownership networks
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Slično tome, kontrola teče vlasničkim mrežama
i nakuplja se u čvorovima.
10:50
and is accumulating at the nodes.
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10:54
So what did we find after computing all this network control?
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Što smo, dakle, otkrili nakon izračunavanja sve te mrežne kontrole?
Proizlazi da 737 najkrupnijih dioničara
10:58
Well, it turns out that the 737 top shareholders
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11:03
have the potential to collectively control 80 percent of the TNCs' value.
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imaju potencijal skupno nadzirati
80% vrijednosti TNC-ova.
11:10
Now remember, we started out with 600,000 nodes,
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Sjećate se? Krenuli smo od 600.000 čvorova,
11:13
so these 737 top players make up a bit more than 0.1 percent.
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što znači da ovih 737 krovnih igrača
čini zajedno tek nešto više od 0.1%.
11:21
They're mostly financial institutions in the US and the UK.
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Uglavnom su to američke i britanske financijske institucije.
11:26
And it gets even more extreme.
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No, to nije sve.
U jezgri nalazimo 146 najvećih igrača
11:29
There are 146 top players in the core,
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koji zajedno imaju potencijal skupno kontrolirati
11:34
and they together have the potential to collectively control
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11:37
40 percent of the TNCs' value.
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40% vrijednosti TNC-ova.
I što biste iz ovoga mogli naučiti?
11:43
What should you take home from all of this?
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11:45
Well, the high degree of control you saw is very extreme by any standard.
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Visok stupanj kontrole, što ste ga vidjeli,
vrlo je drastičan po svim mjerilima.
Visok stupanj međusobne povezanosti
11:54
The high degree of interconnectivity of the top players in the core
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najvećih igrača u jezgri
mogao bi predstavljati znatan sistemski rizik za globalnu ekonomiju.
11:59
could pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy.
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Lako bismo mogli reproducirati mrežu TNC-ova
12:05
And we could easily reproduce the TNC network
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12:07
with a few simple rules.
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sa svega nekoliko jednostavnih pravila.
To znači da je njihova struktura vjerojatno
12:10
This means that its structure is probably the result of self-organization.
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posljedica samoorganiziranja.
Ono je proizlazeće svojstvo koje ovisi
12:14
It's an emergent property which depends on the rules of interaction in the system,
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o pravilima međudjelovanja u sustavu,
12:19
so it's probably not the result of a top-down approach
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pa vjerojatno nije posljedica nekih autoritarnih utjecaja
12:23
like a global conspiracy.
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poput globalne zavjere.
Naša je studija "dojam o površini Mjeseca.
12:27
Our study "is an impression of the moon's surface.
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12:29
It's not a street map."
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Ona nije plan grada."
12:31
So you should take the exact numbers in our study with a grain of salt,
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Stoga uzmite egzaktne numeričke pokazatelje iz naše studije
sa zrnom soli,
12:35
yet it "gave us a tantalizing glimpse of a brave new world of finance."
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premda nam je "pružila primamljiv tračak svjetla
vrlog novog svijeta financija."
Nadamo se da smo odškrinuli vrata brojnim sličnim istraživanjima,
12:43
We hope to have opened the door for more such research in this direction,
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12:47
so the remaining unknown terrain will be charted in the future.
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i da će preostalo nepoznato zemljište biti ucrtano u budućnosti.
12:52
And this is slowly starting.
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I polako se to pokreće...
12:53
We're seeing the emergence of long-term and highly-funded programs
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Primjećujemo da se pojavljuju dugoročni
i izdašno financirani programi usmjereni k razumijevanju
12:59
which aim at understanding our networked world
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našeg umreženog svijeta iz perspektive kompleksnosti.
13:02
from a complexity point of view.
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Međutim, ovo smo putovanje tek započeli,
13:05
But this journey has only just begun,
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13:06
so we will have to wait before we see the first results.
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i morat ćemo se još strpjeti do prvih rezultata.
13:12
Now there is still a big problem, in my opinion.
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Po mom mišljenju, još uvijek postoji velik problem.
Predodžbe koje imamo o financijama, ekonomiji, politici,
13:16
Ideas relating to finance, economics, politics, society,
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društvu, nerijetko su zatrovane
13:22
are very often tainted by people's personal ideologies.
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našim osobnim ideologijama.
13:28
I really hope that this complexity perspective
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Iskreno se nadam da nam ovo gledište o kompleksnosti
13:32
allows for some common ground to be found.
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pruža priliku da iznađemo neku zajedničku osnovu.
Bilo bi uistinu sjajno kad bi nam moglo
13:38
It would be really great if it has the power
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13:40
to help end the gridlock created by conflicting ideas,
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pomoći okončati ovu zavrzlamu koju stvaraju suprotstavljene zamisli,
13:45
which appears to be paralyzing our globalized world.
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i koja, čini se, paralizira naš globalizirani svijet.
13:50
Reality is so complex, we need to move away from dogma.
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Stvarnost je toliko kompleksna da se moramo osloboditi dogmi.
13:55
But this is just my own personal ideology.
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No, ovo je tek moja osobna ideologija.
13:58
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:59
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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