James B. Glattfelder: Who controls the world?

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Jui-Hsin Chen 審譯者: Ingrid Fan

"當危機來臨時

"When the crisis came,

現有的經濟體系和金融模型

the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models

嚴重的侷限性會馬上顯露出來。"

immediately became apparent."

"社會上還有一種強烈的共識， 我在這裡和各位分享

"There is also a strong belief, which I share,

that bad or oversimplistic and overconfident economics

就是錯誤的或是過於簡化 和過度自信的經濟

helped create the crisis."

造就了這場危機。"

Now, you've probably all heard of similar criticism

你們或多或少聽過類似的評論

特別是從質疑資本主義者的口中聽到

coming from people who are skeptical of capitalism.

But this is different.

但我剛才所說的是不一樣的

我剛才所說的，是發自金融體系的核心

This is coming from the heart of finance.

The first quote is from Jean-Claude Trichet

第一句話是來自尚．克勞德特里謝 (Jean-Claude Trichet)

when he was governor of the European Central Bank.

當他還是歐洲中央銀行總裁時所說的

The second quote is from the head of the UK Financial Services Authority.

第二句話是來自

英國金融管理局的局長

Are these people implying

這些人是在暗示

that we don't understand the economic systems

我們不了解推動現代社會的

that drive our modern societies?

經濟制度嗎?

It gets worse.

情況越來越糟

"We spend billions of dollars

"我們花數十億美元

trying to understand the origins of the universe,

試著去了解宇宙的起源

但我們仍然不了解

while we still don't understand the conditions for a stable society,

一個穩定的社會、正常運作的 經濟或是和平所需要的條件

a functioning economy, or peace."

What's happening here? How can this be possible?

到底發生了甚麼事? 怎會這樣呢?

Do we really understand more about the fabric of reality

我們對於現實本質的了解

than we do about the fabric which emerges from our human interactions?

會比我們對於

人類的互動所交織而成的 社會了解的更多嗎?

Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

很不幸的，答案是肯定的

But there's an intriguing solution

但是，現在有個耐人尋味的解決方案

which is coming from what is known as the science of complexity.

從所謂的複雜性科學衍生出來

為了說明這是什麼東西 還有這代表甚麼意思

To explain what this means and what this thing is,

please let me quickly take a couple of steps back.

請容許我先把時間倒回幾步

在偶然之下，我選擇了物理這條路

I ended up in physics by accident.

It was a random encounter when I was young,

這是在我年輕時的一個巧合

and since then, I've often wondered about the amazing success of physics

從那時候開始，我就時常在想

關於物理驚人的成就

它描述了我們每天生活的 現實世界運作的方式

in describing the reality we wake up in every day.

簡單來說，你可以把 物理想像成以下這樣子

In a nutshell, you can think of physics as follows.

So you take a chunk of reality you want to understand

你拿走了一塊你想要 了解的現實世界

and you translate it into mathematics.

然後你用數學來詮釋它

你將它轉換成方程式

You encode it into equations.

Then, predictions can be made and tested.

如此，你可以預期結果並且測試它

We're actually really lucky that this works,

我們真的很幸運這樣的方式是可行的

because no one really knows why the thoughts in our heads

因為沒有人真正了解我們腦中的想法

should actually relate to the fundamental workings of the universe.

實際上和宇宙運行的基本法則是有關聯的

Despite the success, physics has its limits.

儘管有如此的成就 物理仍然有它的侷限性

As Dirk Helbing pointed out in the last quote,

如同德克．海爾賓在剛剛最後一段引言所指出的 (Dirk Helbing瑞士一名物理學和社會學家)

我們並不是真的了解

we don't really understand the complexity that relates to us, that surrounds us.

和我們有關並且環繞著在我們的複雜性

This paradox is what got me interested in complex systems.

這個悖論讓我對於這樣複雜系統產生了興趣

So these are systems which are made up

以下這些系統

of many interconnected or interacting parts:

是由許多部分相互關聯 和相互作用所引起的

swarms of birds or fish,

一整群的鳥或是魚、螞蟻的地盤

ant colonies, ecosystems, brains, financial markets.

生態系統、腦、金融市場

These are just a few examples.

這些其中只是一小部分的例子

Interestingly, complex systems are very hard to map

很有趣的是，要將複雜系統

into mathematical equations,

用數學方程式描繪出來是非常困難的

so the usual physics approach doesn't really work here.

所以慣用的物理方法 在這裡無用武之地

So what do we know about complex systems?

我們對於複雜系統所知多少?

Well, it turns out that what looks like complex behavior from the outside

實際上，我們在複雜行為的外表所看到的

其實就是它那少數且簡單的規則

is actually the result of a few simple rules of interaction.

互動的結果

這代表你可以忘掉那些方程式

This means you can forget about the equations

and just start to understand the system

然後從觀察它的互動行為

開始了解這系統

by looking at the interactions,

so you can actually forget about the equations

所以你真的可以不用再管那些方程式了

and you just start to look at the interactions.

你只要開始觀察那些互動行為

And it gets even better, because most complex systems

而這讓一切變得更順利 因為絕大多數的複雜系統

have this amazing property called emergence.

都有一個了不起的特性，叫做突現性 (Emergence)

So this means that the system as a whole suddenly starts to show a behavior

這代表的是一整個系統

會突然地展現出一種現象

而這個現象是無法被了解或預測的

which cannot be understood or predicted

by looking at the components of the system.

如果你只注意這整個系統的一小部分的話

So the whole is literally more than the sum of its parts.

所以系統的整體，實際上 比它所有部分的總合還要多

And all of this also means

而這也意味著，你可以 不管系統那些個別的部分

that you can forget about the individual parts of the system,

還有它們的複雜性

how complex they are.

So if it's a cell or a termite or a bird,

假設這個系統是個細胞、是白蟻或是一隻鳥

you just focus on the rules of interaction.

你只要專注在它們互動的規則上

結論就是，網絡是代表複雜系統

As a result, networks are ideal representations of complex systems.

最理想的代表詞

每個網絡的節點

The nodes in the network are the system's components,

就像是系統的零件一樣

而互動就是結點之間的連接線

and the links are given by the interactions.

So what equations are for physics,

方程式之於物理學

complex networks are for the study of complex systems.

就像複雜網絡之於複雜系統一樣

This approach has been very successfully applied

這個方法已經被成功的應用在

to many complex systems in physics, biology,

許多的複雜系統，像是物理學、生物學

computer science, the social sciences,

資訊工程學、社會科學

but what about economics?

但經濟學呢?

Where are economic networks?

經濟學的網絡在哪?

This is a surprising and prominent gap in the literature.

在相關文獻中，這是一個驚人且顯而易見的鴻溝

我們在去年發表的一篇研究

The study we published last year, called "The Network of Global Corporate Control,"

叫做 "全球企業控制權的網絡"

是第一個大規模分析經濟網絡的研究

was the first extensive analysis of economic networks.

The study went viral on the Internet

這個研究在網路上像病毒般的傳播出去

and it attracted a lot of attention from the international media.

並吸引了非常多國際媒體的目光

This is quite remarkable, because, again, why did no one look at this before?

這是很值得關注的，因為再一次地

為什麼之前從來沒有人關注過這件事?

Similar data has been around for quite some time.

類似的資料在很久以前就唾手可得了

What we looked at in detail was ownership networks.

我們研究的是，所有權網絡的詳細訊息

在這圖上，結點代表公司行號、人、政府機關

So here the nodes are companies, people, governments, foundations, etc.

基金會等等

And the links represent the shareholding relations,

而連接線代表的是股權關係

so shareholder A has x percent of the shares in company B.

如此來看，股東 A 擁有公司 B 百分之 X 的股份

And we also assign a value to the company given by the operating revenue.

同時我們也將公司的價值標註在上面

基於公司營業收入來訂定的

所以，所有權網絡展現出一種

So ownership networks reveal the patterns of shareholding relations.

股東關係的模式

在這個小小的範例中，你們可以看到

In this little example, you can see a few financial institutions

少量的金融機構

和很多被凸顯出來的連接線

with some of the many links highlighted.

Now, you may think that no one looked at this before

現在你可能想，以前從來沒有人看過這個

because ownership networks are really, really boring to study.

因為所有權網絡

研究起來非常非常無聊

Well, as ownership is related to control,

好吧，當所有權和控制權做出關聯後

as I shall explain later,

這我在稍後會做出解釋

looking at ownership networks

仔細看所有權網絡

actually can give you answers to questions like,

實際上這可以讓以下這類問題的答案呼之欲出

who are the key players?

誰是這裏面的關鍵成員?

How are they organized? Are they isolated?

它們是如何組織起來的? 它們是各自獨立的嗎?

Are they interconnected?

它們是互相連接的嗎?

And what is the overall distribution of control?

還有，整體的控制權分配是如何?

In other words, who controls the world?

換句話說，誰掌控了世界?

I think this is an interesting question.

我認為這是一個很有趣的問題

並且涉及到系統性的風險

And it has implications for systemic risk.

這是展示一個系統在整體脆弱程度的衡量方式

This is a measure of how vulnerable a system is overall.

一個高度的互連接性

A high degree of interconnectivity can be bad for stability,

可能對穩定性有不良影響

because then the stress can spread through the system like an epidemic.

因為壓力會透過系統蔓延出去

如同瘟疫一般

Scientists have sometimes criticized economists

科學家有時會批評經濟學家

因為經濟學家相信，概念和學說

who believe ideas and concepts are more important than empirical data,

比實證數據還要來得重要

because a foundational guideline in science is:

因為在科學中的一個基準法則，就是

讓數據說話。沒問題，讓我們試試看吧

Let the data speak. OK. Let's do that.

So we started with a database containing 13 million ownership relations from 2007.

所以我們開始建立一個資料庫，含蓋

自 2007 年以來，一千三百萬個所有權關係

This is a lot of data, and because we wanted to find out

這是非常多筆的資料，而因為我們想要找尋出

誰統治這個世界

"who rules the world,"

我們決定專注在跨國企業上

we decided to focus on transnational corporations,

or "TNCs," for short.

簡寫就是TNC

These are companies that operate in more than one country,

這些企業運營的範圍多於一個國家

and we found 43,000.

然後我們找出了四萬三千個這樣的企業

下一步，我們勾勒出這些企業的網絡圖

In the next step, we built the network around these companies,

so we took all the TNCs' shareholders,

所以我們找出了所以TNC的股東

and the shareholders' shareholders, etc.,

以及股東的股東等等

all the way upstream, and we did the same downstream,

追朔到最上游，同時也循著下游追蹤

and ended up with a network containing 600,000 nodes

最後的結果是一個包含六十萬個節點的網絡圖

and one million links.

還有一百萬個連結線

This is the TNC network which we analyzed.

這是我們所分析出的TNC網絡

而這引領出的結構如下

And it turns out to be structured as follows.

So you have a periphery and a center

你們看到這裡有個外圍區和一個中央區

which contains about 75 percent of all the players,

在這範圍包含了百分之七十五的成員

而在這個中央區裡面，有個微小但是擁有主導權的核心

and in the center, there's this tiny but dominant core

這核心是由高度內部連接的企業所組成的

which is made up of highly interconnected companies.

To give you a better picture,

再給你們一個更好的示範圖

think about a metropolitan area.

想像一下大都會區域

So you have the suburbs and the periphery,

你們會看到郊區和外圍地區

you have a center, like a financial district,

你們會看到一個中央區像是金融中心這樣的地方

then the core will be something like

而核心就會像是

the tallest high-rise building in the center.

在中央區內高聳入雲的那棟建築

And we already see signs of organization going on here.

而我們已經看到組織正在往這裡移動的跡象

36 percent of the TNCs are in the core only,

只有百分之三十六的TNC在這個核心中

but they make up 95 percent of the total operating revenue of all TNCs.

但它們卻創造出全部TNC百分之九十五

的總營業收入

現在，我們來分析這個結構

OK, so now we analyzed the structure,

so how does this relate to the control?

這個和控制權有甚麼關係呢?

Well, ownership gives voting rights to shareholders.

實際上，所有權讓股東們擁有投票的權力

This is the normal notion of control.

這是對控制權最基本的概念

而這裡有不同的模型讓你來計算

And there are different models

which allow you to compute the control you get from ownership.

你從所有權中，可以獲得的控制權

如果你擁有一間公司超過百分之五十的股份時

If you have more than 50 percent of the shares in a company,

你就獲得了控制權

you get control,

but usually, it depends on the relative distribution of shares.

但這通常有賴於股份的相對分布

And the network really matters.

因此，網絡在此占了一席之地

About 10 years ago, Mr. Tronchetti Provera

大約十年前，Tronchetti Provera先生 (Pirelli集團負責人)

擁有一間小公司的所有權和控制權

had ownership and control in a small company,

which had ownership and control in a bigger company.

而這小公司擁有一間較大的公司的所有權和控制權

你們大概猜到了

You get the idea.

This ended up giving him control in Telecom Italia with a leverage of 26.

到最後，這讓他擁有了義大利電信的控制權

而他的財務槓桿指數是廿六

So this means that, with each euro he invested,

這代表的意涵是，他每投資一塊歐元

he was able to move 26 euros of market value

他就可以操控等同市場價值26歐元的資金

這是經由所有權關係的連鎖反應的結果

through the chain of ownership relations.

Now what we actually computed in our study was the control over the TNCs' value.

現在，我們在我們的研究中實際上所計算的

就是所有TNC價值的控制權

這讓我們可以計算出一個值，來代表每位股東

This allowed us to assign a degree of influence to each shareholder.

的影響程度

這樣的概念就像是

This is very much in the sense of Max Weber's idea of potential power,

Max Weber 所提出的潛在力量 (現代社會學和公共行政學重要創始人之一)

也就是一個人要將自己的意念

which is the probability of imposing one's own will

despite the opposition of others.

強加在反對者身上的可能向

If you want to compute the flow in an ownership network,

如果你想要計算出一個所有權網絡中的流動性

this is what you have to do.

這就是你所要做的事

It's actually not that hard to understand.

實際上，要了解它不是那麼難

Let me explain by giving you this analogy.

讓我用一個類比的方式來解釋

想像一下，水在許多水管中流動

So think about water flowing in pipes, where the pipes have different thickness.

這些水管的粗細都不同

So similarly, the control is flowing in the ownership networks

同樣地，控制權就是所有權網絡中的流水一樣

而且這會在每個節點中不斷累積

and is accumulating at the nodes.

So what did we find after computing all this network control?

所以，我們在計算這些網絡控制權後發現了甚麼?

實際上，這展示出排名前七百卅七個的股東們

Well, it turns out that the 737 top shareholders

have the potential to collectively control 80 percent of the TNCs' value.

擁有潛在的共同控制權

掌控百分之八十的TNC總價值

Now remember, we started out with 600,000 nodes,

現在，請記住，我們是從六十萬個節點中開始的

so these 737 top players make up a bit more than 0.1 percent.

所以這排名前七百卅七個成員

大概只比百分之零點一還要多出一點點

They're mostly financial institutions in the US and the UK.

它們絕大多數是位於美國和英國的金融機構

And it gets even more extreme.

而更極端的是

在核心中有一百四十六個成員

There are 146 top players in the core,

它們擁有的潛在共同控制權

and they together have the potential to collectively control

40 percent of the TNCs' value.

是百分之四十的TNC總價值

你們從這之中應該帶回家裡的是

What should you take home from all of this?

Well, the high degree of control you saw is very extreme by any standard.

你們所看到的，高控制程度

對於各種標準來看都是非常極端的

高度的內部連接性

The high degree of interconnectivity of the top players in the core

在核心中的頂尖成員來說

可以對全球經濟造成很顯著的系統性風險

could pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy.

同時，我們可以很輕易地複製TNC網絡

And we could easily reproduce the TNC network

with a few simple rules.

只要用幾個簡單的規則

這代表的是，這個網絡很有可能是

This means that its structure is probably the result of self-organization.

自我組織的結果

這是一個很危急的產物，因為它依靠的是

It's an emergent property which depends on the rules of interaction in the system,

系統內部互動的規則

so it's probably not the result of a top-down approach

所以，它很可能不是上而下法 (top-down approach)的結果

like a global conspiracy.

如同全球性陰謀一樣

我們的研究 "是對月球表面的驚鴻一瞥

Our study "is an impression of the moon's surface.

It's not a street map."

不是細如街景地圖一般"

So you should take the exact numbers in our study with a grain of salt,

所以你們應該對我們研究中幾個確切的數字

持懷疑的態度

yet it "gave us a tantalizing glimpse of a brave new world of finance."

雖然它 "讓財金這個勇敢的新世界

給了我們一個誘人的一瞥"

我們希望能讓這類型的研究敞開大門

We hope to have opened the door for more such research in this direction,

so the remaining unknown terrain will be charted in the future.

如此，剩餘的那些未知大陸才能夠在未來被勾勒出來

And this is slowly starting.

而這發生得很慢

We're seeing the emergence of long-term and highly-funded programs

我們尋找的是長期

且被高度投資的計畫的出現，針對的是

which aim at understanding our networked world

從複雜的觀點來瞭解我們的網絡世界

from a complexity point of view.

但這個旅程才剛啟程

But this journey has only just begun,

so we will have to wait before we see the first results.

所以，在我們看到第一個結果之前，我們必須等待

Now there is still a big problem, in my opinion.

現在，在我看來，仍然還有個很大的問題

關於財務、經濟、政治

Ideas relating to finance, economics, politics, society,

社會的想法很多都被汙染了

are very often tainted by people's personal ideologies.

人們的自我意識形態造成這種現象

I really hope that this complexity perspective

我真心希望這樣充滿複雜性的觀點

allows for some common ground to be found.

能夠找到一些共同點

如果它擁有打破因為觀念衝突所造成的

It would be really great if it has the power

to help end the gridlock created by conflicting ideas,

僵局的力量，那就真的是太棒了

which appears to be paralyzing our globalized world.

這樣的僵局會癱瘓我們正在全球化的世界

Reality is so complex, we need to move away from dogma.

現實是非常複雜的 我們必須拋下我們心中的教條

But this is just my own personal ideology.

但這只是我自己的意識形態

Thank you.

謝謝你們

(Applause)

(掌聲)