What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe | Ben Goldacre

709,469 views ใƒป 2012-09-27

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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ืžืชืจื’ื: Shlomo Adam ืžื‘ืงืจ: Orr Schlesinger
00:15
Hi. So, this chap here,
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ืฉืœื•ื. ื”ื˜ื™ืคื•ืก ื”ื–ื”,
00:18
he thinks he can tell you the future.
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ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื’ืœื•ืช ืœื›ื ืืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
00:20
His name is Nostradamus, although here the Sun have
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ืฉืžื• ื ื•ืกื˜ืจื“ืžื•ืก, ืœืžืจื•ืช ืฉื‘ืชืžื•ื ื” ื”ื–ื• ื”ืขื™ืชื•ืŸ "ืกืืŸ"
00:22
made him look a little bit like Sean Connery. (Laughter)
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ื’ืจื ืœื• ืœื”ื™ืจืื•ืช ืงืฆืช ื›ืžื• ืฉื•ืŸ ืงื•ื ืจื™. [ืฆื—ื•ืง]
00:26
And like most of you, I suspect, I don't really believe
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ื•ื›ืžื• ืจื•ื‘ื›ื, ื ืจืื” ืœื™, ื’ื ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืžืฉ ืžืืžื™ืŸ
00:29
that people can see into the future.
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ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช ืืช ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
00:30
I don't believe in precognition, and every now and then,
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืžืืžื™ืŸ ื‘ืจืื™ื™ืช-ื”ื ื•ืœื“, ื•ืžื™ื“ื™ ืคืขื,
00:33
you hear that somebody has been able to predict something that happened in the future,
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ืฉื•ืžืขื™ื ืขืœ ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืฉื”ืฆืœื™ื— ืœื ื‘ื ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื™ืงืจื” ื‘ืขืชื™ื“,
00:36
and that's probably because it was a fluke, and we only
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ื•ื›ื ืจืื” ืฉืคืฉื•ื˜ ื”ืชืžื–ืœ ืžื–ืœื•, ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืฉื•ืžืขื™ื ืจืง
00:39
hear about the flukes and about the freaks.
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ืขืœ ืืœื• ืฉื”ืชืžื–ืœ ืžื–ืœื ื•ืขืœ ื”ืžืงืจื™ื ื”ื—ืจื™ื’ื™ื.
00:42
We don't hear about all the times that people got stuff wrong.
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ืื™ื ื ื• ืฉื•ืžืขื™ื ืขืœ ื›ืœ ื˜ืขื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื—ื™ื–ื•ื™.
00:46
Now we expect that to happen with silly stories
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื”ืฆื™ืคื™ื™ื” ืฉืœื ื• ื”ื™ื ืฉื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื’ื‘ืœ ืœืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ื ืžื˜ื•ืคืฉื™ื
00:48
about precognition, but the problem is,
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ืกื‘ื™ื‘ ืจืื™ื™ืช-ื”ื ื•ืœื“, ืืš ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ื
00:51
we have exactly the same problem in academia
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืื•ืชื” ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื‘ืืงื“ืžื™ื”
00:54
and in medicine, and in this environment, it costs lives.
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ื•ื‘ืจืคื•ืื” - ื•ื›ืืŸ ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื—ื™ื™-ืื“ื.
00:59
So firstly, thinking just about precognition, as it turns out,
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ืื– ืงื•ื“ื ื›ืœ, ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืจืื™ื™ืช-ื”ื ื•ืœื“,
01:02
just last year a researcher called Daryl Bem conducted
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ืžืกืชื‘ืจ ืฉืจืง ื‘ืฉื ื” ืฉืขื‘ืจื”, ื—ื•ืงืจ ื‘ืฉื ื“ืืจื™ืœ ื‘ื
01:05
a piece of research where he found evidence
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ืขืจืš ืžื—ืงืจ ื•ื‘ื• ืžืฆื ื”ื•ื›ื—ื•ืช
01:07
of precognitive powers in undergraduate students,
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ืœื™ื›ื•ืœืช ื ื™ื‘ื•ื™ ืืฆืœ ืกื˜ื•ื“ื ื˜ื™ื ืœืชื•ืืจ ืจืืฉื•ืŸ,
01:10
and this was published in a peer-reviewed academic journal
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ื•ื–ื” ืคื•ืจืกื ื‘ื›ืชื‘-ืขืช ืืงื“ืžื™ ืœืื—ืจ ื‘ื™ืงื•ืจืช-ืขืžื™ืชื™ื,
01:13
and most of the people who read this just said, "Okay, well,
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ื•ืจื•ื‘ ืงื•ืจืื™ ื”ืžืืžืจ ื”ื’ื™ื‘ื• ื‘-"ื ื•, ื˜ื•ื‘,
01:15
fair enough, but I think that's a fluke, that's a freak, because I know
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ื ื—ืžื“ ืžืื“, ืื‘ืœ ืœื“ืขืชื™ ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ืžื–ืœ ื•ืžืงืจื” ื—ืจื™ื’, ื›ื™ ืื ื™ ื™ื•ื“ืข
01:17
that if I did a study where I found no evidence
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ืฉืื™ืœื• ืขืจื›ืชื™ ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉื‘ื• ืœื ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืžื•ืฆื ืฉื•ื ื”ื•ื›ื—ื•ืช
01:20
that undergraduate students had precognitive powers,
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ืฉืœืกื˜ื•ื“ื ื˜ื™ื ื™ืฉ ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ื ื™ื‘ื•ื™,
01:23
it probably wouldn't get published in a journal.
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ื”ื•ื ื›ื ืจืื” ืœื ื”ื™ื” ืžืชืคืจืกื ื‘ืฉื•ื ื›ืชื‘-ืขืช."
01:26
And in fact, we know that that's true, because
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ื•ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื›ืš ื‘ืืžืช ืงื•ืจื”,
01:29
several different groups of research scientists tried
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ื›ื™ ืงื‘ื•ืฆื•ืช ืžื“ืขื ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื•ืช ื ื™ืกื•
01:32
to replicate the findings of this precognition study,
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ืœืฉื—ื–ืจ ืืช ืžืžืฆืื™ ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ื ื™ื‘ื•ื™ ื”ืžืงื•ืจื™ ื”ื–ื”,
01:35
and when they submitted it to the exact same journal,
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ื•ื›ืฉื”ื’ื™ืฉื• ืืช ื”ืžืืžืจื™ื ืฉืœื”ื ืœืื•ืชื• ื›ืชื‘-ืขืช ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง,
01:38
the journal said, "No, we're not interested in publishing
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ื”ืขื™ืชื•ืŸ ื”ื’ื™ื‘ ื‘-"ืœื ืชื•ื“ื”, ืื ื• ืœื ืžืขื•ื ื™ื™ื ื™ื ืœืคืจืกื ืฉื™ื—ื–ื•ืจ
01:41
replication. We're not interested in your negative data."
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ืฉืœ ืžื—ืงืจื™ื. ืื ื• ืœื ืžืขื•ื ื™ื™ื ื™ื ื‘ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื›ื."
01:45
So this is already evidence of how, in the academic
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ื•ื–ื• ื›ื‘ืจ ื”ื•ื›ื—ื” ืœืื•ืคืŸ ืฉื‘ื•, ื‘ืกืคืจื•ืช ื”ืืงื“ืžืื™ืช,
01:48
literature, we will see a biased sample of the true picture
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ื™ืฉื ื” ื“ื’ื™ืžื” ืžื•ื˜ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืชืžื•ื ื” ื”ืืžื™ืชื™ืช
01:53
of all of the scientific studies that have been conducted.
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ืฉืœ ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ืžื“ืขื™ื™ื ืฉื ืขืจื›ื• ื‘ื ื•ืฉื ืžืกื•ื™ื.
01:57
But it doesn't just happen in the dry academic field of psychology.
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ืืš ื–ื” ืœื ืงื•ืจื” ืจืง ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื”ืืงื“ืžื™ ื”ื™ื‘ืฉ ืฉืœ ื”ืคืกื™ื›ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
02:01
It also happens in, for example, cancer research.
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ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื”, ืœืžืฉืœ, ื’ื ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื—ืงืจ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
02:05
So in March, 2012, just one month ago, some researchers
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ื‘ืžืจืฅ 2012, ืœืคื ื™ ื—ื•ื“ืฉ ื‘ืœื‘ื“, ืžืกืคืจ ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื
02:09
reported in the journal Nature how they had tried
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ื“ื™ื•ื•ื—ื• ื‘ื›ืชื‘ ื”ืขืช "ื ื™ื™ืฆ'ืจ" ืฉื”ื ื ื™ืกื•
02:12
to replicate 53 different basic science studies looking at
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ืœืฉื—ื–ืจ 53 ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืžื“ืขื™ื™ื ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ื™ื
02:16
potential treatment targets in cancer,
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ื‘ื ื•ืฉื ืžื˜ืจื•ืช ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœื™ื•ืช ืคื•ื˜ื ืฆื™ืืœื™ื•ืช ื‘ืกืจื˜ืŸ,
02:20
and out of those 53 studies, they were only able
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ื•ืžืชื•ืš 53 ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ืœืœื•, ื”ื ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื•
02:22
to successfully replicate six.
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ืœืฉื—ื–ืจ ื‘ื”ืฆืœื—ื” ืฉื™ืฉื” ื‘ืœื‘ื“.
02:25
Forty-seven out of those 53 were unreplicable.
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ืืจื‘ืขื™ื ื•ืฉื‘ืขื” ืžืชื•ืš 53 ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืœื ื”ื™ื• ื‘ืจื™-ืฉื™ื—ื–ื•ืจ.
02:30
And they say in their discussion that this is very likely
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ื•ื‘ืžืืžืจ ืฉืœื”ื ื”ื ื›ื•ืชื‘ื™ื ืฉื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ืœื›ืš ื”ื™ื ื›ื›ืœ ื”ื ืจืื”
02:34
because freaks get published.
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ืฉืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื™ื•ืฆืื•ืช-ื“ื•ืคืŸ ื–ื•ื›ื•ืช ืœืคืจืกื•ื.
02:36
People will do lots and lots and lots of different studies,
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ืื ืฉื™ื ืขื•ืจื›ื™ื ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืขืœ ื’ื‘ื™ ืžื—ืงืจื™ื,
02:38
and the occasions when it works they will publish,
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ื•ื‘ืžืงืจื™ื ื‘ื”ื ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืžืฆืœื™ื—ื™ื - ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืžืชืคืจืกืžื•ืช,
02:41
and the ones where it doesn't work they won't.
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ื•ืืœื• ืฉืœื ืžืฆืœื™ื—ื™ื - ืœื ืžืชืคืจืกืžื™ื.
02:42
And their first recommendation of how to fix this problem,
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ื•ื”ื”ืžืœืฆื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืฉืœื”ื ืื™ืš ืœืชืงืŸ ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื–ื• -
02:46
because it is a problem, because it sends us all down blind alleys,
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ื•ื–ื• ืื›ืŸ ื‘ืขื™ื”, ื›ื™ ื–ื” ืžืคื ื” ืืช ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืœืžื‘ื•ื™ื™ื ืกืชื•ืžื™ื -
02:49
their first recommendation of how to fix this problem
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ื”ื”ืžืœืฆื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืฉืœื”ื ืื™ืš ืœืชืงืŸ ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื–ื•
02:51
is to make it easier to publish negative results in science,
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ื”ื™ื ืœื”ืงืœ ืขืœ ืคื™ืจืกื•ื ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื™ื ื‘ื›ืชื‘ื™-ืขืช ืžื“ืขื™ื™ื,
02:55
and to change the incentives so that scientists are
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ื•ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื”ืชืžืจื™ืฆื™ื ื›ืš ืฉื”ืžื“ืขื ื™ื ื™ืงื‘ืœื• ืขื™ื“ื•ื“
02:57
encouraged to post more of their negative results in public.
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ืœืคืจืกื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื.
03:02
But it doesn't just happen in the very dry world
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ืืš ื–ื” ืœื ืงื•ืจื” ืจืง ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื”ื™ื‘ืฉ
03:06
of preclinical basic science cancer research.
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ืฉืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ืงื“ื-ื˜ื™ืคื•ืœื™ ื‘ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
03:10
It also happens in the very real, flesh and blood
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ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื” ื’ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ืืžื™ืชื™, ื”ื‘ืฉืจ ื•ื”ื“ื
03:13
of academic medicine. So in 1980,
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ืฉืœ ื”ืจืคื•ืื” ื”ืืงื“ืžืื™ืช. ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ื‘-1980
03:17
some researchers did a study on a drug called lorcainide,
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ืžืกืคืจ ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ืขืจื›ื• ืžื—ืงืจ ืขืœ ืชืจื•ืคื” ื‘ืฉื "ืœื•ืจืงืื™ื ื™ื“",
03:20
and this was an anti-arrhythmic drug,
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ืฉื”ื™ืชื” ืชืจื•ืคื” ืื ื˜ื™-ืืจื™ืชืžื™ืช,
03:22
a drug that suppresses abnormal heart rhythms,
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ืฉื ื•ืขื“ื” ืœื˜ืคืœ ื‘ื”ืคืจืขื•ืช ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘,
03:24
and the idea was, after people have had a heart attack,
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ื•ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื™ื” ืฉืื—ืจื™ ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ืขื•ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืชืงืฃ-ืœื‘,
03:27
they're quite likely to have abnormal heart rhythms,
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ื”ื ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื’ื‘ื•ื” ืœื”ืคืจืขื•ืช ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘,
03:28
so if we give them a drug that suppresses abnormal heart
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ืื– ืื ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ื ืชืจื•ืคื” ืฉืžื•ื ืขืช ื”ืคืจืขื•ืช ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘,
03:31
rhythms, this will increase the chances of them surviving.
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ื–ื” ื™ืขืœื” ืืช ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ื™ ื”ื”ืฉืจื“ื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื.
03:34
Early on its development, they did a very small trial,
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ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ืžื•ืงื“ื ืฉืœ ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื”ื ืขืจื›ื• ื ื™ืกื•ื™ ื‘ื”ื™ืงืฃ ืงื˜ื ื˜ืŸ,
03:37
just under a hundred patients.
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ืขืœ ืงืฆืช ืคื—ื•ืช ืžืžืื” ืžื˜ื•ืคืœื™ื.
03:39
Fifty patients got lorcainide, and of those patients, 10 died.
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ื—ืžื™ืฉื™ื ื—ื•ืœื™ื ืงื™ื‘ืœื• "ืœื•ืจืงืื™ื ื™ื“", ื•ืžืชื•ื›ื ืžืชื• ืขืฉืจื”.
03:43
Another 50 patients got a dummy placebo sugar pill
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ื—ืžื™ืฉื™ื ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื ื•ืกืคื™ื ืงื™ื‘ืœื• ื’ืœื•ืœืช ื“ืžื” ืฉืœ ืกื•ื›ืจ,
03:46
with no active ingredient, and only one of them died.
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ืœืœื ืฉื•ื ื—ื•ืžืจื™ื ืคืขื™ืœื™ื, ื•ืžืชื•ื›ื ืจืง ืื—ื“ ื ืคื˜ืจ.
03:49
So they rightly regarded this drug as a failure,
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ืื– ื”ื ืžื™ื“ ื”ื›ืจื™ื–ื• ืฉื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื”ื–ื• ื”ื™ื ื›ืฉืœื•ืŸ,
03:51
and its commercial development was stopped, and because
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ื”ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืžืกื—ืจื™ ืฉืœื” ื”ื•ืคืกืง,
03:54
its commercial development was stopped, this trial was never published.
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ื•ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ืฉื”ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืžืกื—ืจื™ ื”ื•ืคืกืง, ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ ื”ื–ื” ืžืขื•ืœื ืœื ืคื•ืจืกื.
03:58
Unfortunately, over the course of the next five, 10 years,
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ืœืžืจื‘ื” ื”ืฆืขืจ, ื‘ืžืฉืš 5-10 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช,
04:04
other companies had the same idea about drugs that would
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ื‘ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื ื•ืกืคื•ืช ืขืœื” ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืœืคืชื— ืชืจื•ืคื”
04:08
prevent arrhythmias in people who have had heart attacks.
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ืฉืชืžื ืข ื”ืคืจืขื•ืช ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ื”ืœื‘ ืืฆืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืœืงื• ื‘ื”ืชืงืฃ-ืœื‘.
04:10
These drugs were brought to market. They were prescribed
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ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืืœื” ื”ื•ื›ื ืกื• ืœืฉื•ืง. ืจืฉืžื• ืื•ืชืŸ ืœืื ืฉื™ื
04:12
very widely because heart attacks are a very common thing,
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ื‘ื”ื™ืงืฃ ืจื—ื‘ ืžืื“ ื›ื™ ื”ืชืงืคื™ ื”ืœื‘ ื”ื ืชื•ืคืขื” ื ืคื•ืฆื”,
04:15
and it took so long for us to find out that these drugs
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ื•ื ื“ืจืฉ ืœื ื• ื›ืœ ื”ื–ืžืŸ ื”ื–ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื’ืœื•ืช ืฉืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืืœื”
04:19
also caused an increased rate of death
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ื’ื•ืจืžื•ืช ื’ื ืœืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ืชืžื•ืชื” ืžื•ื’ื‘ืจ
04:22
that before we detected that safety signal,
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ื•ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื’ื™ืœื™ื ื• ืืช ืื™ืชื•ืช ื”ื‘ื˜ื™ื—ื•ืช ื”ื–ื”,
04:25
over 100,000 people died unnecessarily in America
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ืžืขืœ 100,000 ืื™ืฉ ื‘ืืžืจื™ืงื” ืžืชื• ืœืฉื•ื•ื
04:31
from the prescription of anti-arrhythmic drugs.
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ื›ืชื•ืฆืื” ืžืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืื ื˜ื™-ืืจื™ืชืžื™ื•ืช ืฉื ืจืฉืžื• ืœื”ื.
04:34
Now actually, in 1993,
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ื•ืœืžืขืฉื” ื‘-1993,
04:38
the researchers who did that 1980 study, that early study,
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ืื•ืชื ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื ืฉืขืจื›ื• ืืช ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืœ 1980, ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ืžื•ืงื“ื,
04:41
published a mea culpa, an apology to the scientific community,
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ืคื™ืจืกืžื• ื›ืชื‘ ื”ื›ืื”-ืขืœ-ื—ื˜ื, ื”ืชื ืฆืœื•ืช ื‘ืคื ื™ ื”ืงื”ื™ืœื” ื”ืžื“ืขื™ืช,
04:45
in which they said, "When we carried out our study in 1980,
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ืฉื‘ื• ืืžืจื•, "ื›ืฉืขืจื›ื ื• ืืช ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉืœื ื• ื‘-1980,
04:48
we thought that the increased death rate that occurred
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ื—ืฉื‘ื ื• ืฉืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ื”ืชืžื•ืชื” ื”ืžื•ื’ื‘ืจ
04:50
in the lorcainide group was an effect of chance."
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ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืฆืช ื”'ืœื•ืจืงืื™ื ื™ื“' ื”ื™ื” ืžืงืจื™.
04:54
The development of lorcainide was abandoned for commercial reasons,
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ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”'ืœื•ืจืงืื™ื ื™ื“' ื”ื•ืคืกืง ืžื˜ืขืžื™ื ืžืกื—ืจื™ื™ื,
04:56
and this study was never published;
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ื•ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ื–ื” ืžืขื•ืœื ืœื ืคื•ืจืกื;
04:57
it's now a good example of publication bias.
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ื”ื™ื•ื ื–ื• ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื” ืœื”ื˜ื™ื™ืช-ืคืจืกื•ื."
05:00
That's the technical term for the phenomenon where
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ื–ื”ื• ื”ืžื•ื ื— ื”ื˜ื›ื ื™ ืœืชื•ืคืขื”
05:02
unflattering data gets lost, gets unpublished, is left
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ืฉื‘ื” ืžื™ื“ืข ืœื-ืžื—ืžื™ื ื ืขืœื, ืœื ืžืชืคืจืกื,
05:06
missing in action, and they say the results described here
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ื ืขื“ืจ ื‘ืงืจื‘, ื•ื”ื ืื•ืžืจื™ื ืฉื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ืžืชื•ืืจื•ืช ื›ืืŸ
05:09
"might have provided an early warning of trouble ahead."
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"ื™ื›ืœื• ืœืกืคืง ืืชืจืื” ืžื•ืงื“ืžืช ืœื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื‘ืขืชื™ื“."
05:14
Now these are stories from basic science.
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ื•ืืœื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ื ืฉืœ ืžื“ืข ื‘ืกื™ืกื™.
05:17
These are stories from 20, 30 years ago.
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ืืœื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ื ืžืœืคื ื™ 20-30 ืฉื ื”.
05:22
The academic publishing environment is very different now.
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ืกื‘ื™ื‘ืช ื”ืคืจืกื•ื ื”ืืงื“ืžื™ ืฉืœ ื™ืžื™ื ื• ืฉื•ื ื” ืžืื“.
05:25
There are academic journals like "Trials," the open access journal,
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ื™ืฉื ื ื›ืชื‘ื™-ืขืช ืืงื“ืžื™ื™ื ื›ืžื• "ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื", ื™ืจื—ื•ืŸ ืคืชื•ื—,
05:29
which will publish any trial conducted in humans
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ืฉื™ืคืจืกื ื›ืœ ื ื™ืกื•ื™ ืฉื ืขืจืš ืขืœ ื‘ื ื™-ืื“ื
05:32
regardless of whether it has a positive or a negative result.
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ืœืœื ืงืฉืจ ืœืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ืื• ื”ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื•ืช.
05:35
But this problem of negative results that go missing in action
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ืืš ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื–ื• ืฉืœ ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื•ืช ืฉื ืขื“ืจื•ืช ื‘ืงืจื‘
05:39
is still very prevalent. In fact it's so prevalent
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ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื ืคื•ืฆื” ืžืื“. ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ื™ื ื›ื” ืฉื›ื™ื—ื”,
05:43
that it cuts to the core of evidence-based medicine.
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ืฉื”ื™ื ืžื’ื™ืขื” ืขื“ ืœื‘-ืœื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืจืคื•ืื” ืžื‘ื•ืกืกืช-ื”ืจืื™ื•ืช.
05:49
So this is a drug called reboxetine, and this is a drug
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ื–ื• ืชืจื•ืคื” ื‘ืฉื "ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ", ื•ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื”ื–ื•
05:52
that I myself have prescribed. It's an antidepressant.
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ืื ื™-ืขืฆืžื™ ืจืฉืžืชื™ ื‘ืขื‘ืจ. ื–ื• ืชืจื•ืคื” ื ื•ื’ื“ืช-ื“ื›ืื•ืŸ.
05:54
And I'm a very nerdy doctor, so I read all of the studies
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ืื ื™ ืจื•ืคื ืžืื“ ื—ื ื•ื ื™, ืœื›ืŸ ืงืจืืชื™ ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื
05:57
that I could on this drug. I read the one study that was published
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ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœืชื™ ืœืžืฆื•ื ืขืœ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื”ื–ื•. ืงืจืืชื™ ืืช ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ ืฉืคื•ืจืกื,
06:00
that showed that reboxetine was better than placebo,
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ื•ืฉื”ืจืื” ืฉื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ" ื™ืขื™ืœ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืชืจื•ืคืช-ื“ืžื”,
06:03
and I read the other three studies that were published
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ื•ืืช ืฉืœื•ืฉืช ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื™ื ืฉืคื•ืจืกืžื•
06:05
that showed that reboxetine was just as good as any other antidepressant,
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ื•ืฉื”ืจืื• ืฉื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ" ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ื›ืžื• ื›ืœ ื ื•ื’ื“-ื“ื›ืื•ืŸ ืื—ืจ,
06:08
and because this patient hadn't done well on those other antidepressants,
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ื•ื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉืื•ืชื• ื—ื•ืœื” ืœื ื”ื’ื™ื‘ ื”ื™ื˜ื‘ ืœืฉืืจ ื ื•ื’ื“ื™ ื”ื“ื›ืื•ืŸ,
06:10
I thought, well, reboxetine is just as good. It's one to try.
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ื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ ืœืขืฆืžื™ ืฉืื ื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ" ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืชื” ืžื™ื“ื”, ืื ืกื” ืื•ืชื•.
06:13
But it turned out that I was misled. In fact,
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ืืš ื”ืชื‘ืจืจ ืฉื”ื•ื˜ืขื™ืชื™. ื”ืืžืช ื”ื™ื
06:16
seven trials were conducted comparing reboxetine
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ืฉื ืขืจื›ื• 7 ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืฉื”ืฉื•ื• ืืช ื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ"
06:19
against a dummy placebo sugar pill. One of them
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ืœืชืจื•ืคืช-ื“ืžื” ืฉืœ ื’ืœื•ืœืช ืกื•ื›ืจ. ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื
06:21
was positive and that was published, but six of them
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ื”ื™ื” ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ ื•ื”ื•ื ืฉืคื•ืจืกื, ืืš ืฉื™ืฉื” ืžื”ื
06:24
were negative and they were left unpublished.
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ื”ื™ื• ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื™ื ื•ืœื ืคื•ืจืกืžื•.
06:28
Three trials were published comparing reboxetine
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ืคื•ืจืกืžื• 3 ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืฉื”ืฉื•ื• ืืช ื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ"
06:29
against other antidepressants in which reboxetine
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ืœื ื•ื’ื“ื™-ื“ื›ืื•ืŸ ืื—ืจื™ื, ื•ื‘ื”ื ื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ"
06:32
was just as good, and they were published,
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ื”ื™ื” ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืื•ืชื” ืžื™ื“ื”, ื•ื”ื ื–ื›ื• ืœืจืื•ืช-ืื•ืจ,
06:33
but three times as many patients' worth of data was collected
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ืื‘ืœ ื ืืกืฃ ืคื™ 3 ืžื™ื“ืข ืขืœ ื—ื•ืœื™ื,
06:38
which showed that reboxetine was worse than
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ืฉื”ืจืื” ืฉื”"ืจื™ื‘ื•ืงืกื˜ื™ืŸ" ื’ืจื•ืข ื™ื•ืชืจ
06:40
those other treatments, and those trials were not published.
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ืžื˜ื™ืคื•ืœื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื, ื•ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืืœื” ืœื ืคื•ืจืกืžื•.
06:44
I felt misled.
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ื”ืจื’ืฉืชื™ ืฉื”ื•ืœื›ืชื™ ืฉื•ืœืœ.
06:48
Now you might say, well, that's an extremely unusual example,
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ืื•ืœื™ ืชืืžืจื• ืฉื–ื• ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืงื™ืฆื•ื ื™ืช ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ,
06:50
and I wouldn't want to be guilty of the same kind of
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ื•ืื ื™ ืœื ืจื•ืฆื” ืฉื™ืืฉื™ืžื• ืื•ืชื™ ื‘ืื•ืชื• ืกื•ื’
06:52
cherry-picking and selective referencing
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ืฉืœ ื˜ืขื ื•ืช ืžื•ืคืจื›ื•ืช ื•ื”ืคื ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืจืจื ื™ื•ืช
06:55
that I'm accusing other people of.
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ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ืื ื™ ืžืืฉื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื.
06:57
But it turns out that this phenomenon of publication bias
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ืืš ืžืชื‘ืจืจ ืฉืชื•ืคืขื” ื–ื• ืฉืœ ืคืจืกื•ื ืžื•ื˜ื”
06:59
has actually been very, very well studied.
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ื ื—ืงืจื” ืœืคื ื™ ื•ืœืคื ื™ื.
07:01
So here is one example of how you approach it.
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ื”ื ื” ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืื—ืช ืื™ืš ื ื™ื’ืฉื™ื ืœื›ืš.
07:03
The classic model is, you get a bunch of studies where
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ืœืคื™ ื”ืžื•ื“ืœ ื”ืงืœืกื™ ืื•ืกืคื™ื ื›ืžื” ืžื—ืงืจื™ื
07:06
you know that they've been conducted and completed,
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ืฉื™ื“ื•ืข ืฉื”ื ื ืขืจื›ื• ื•ื”ื•ืฉืœืžื•,
07:08
and then you go and see if they've been published anywhere
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ื•ืื– ื‘ื•ื“ืงื™ื ืื ื”ื ื–ื›ื• ืœืคืจืกื•ื ื›ืœืฉื”ื•
07:10
in the academic literature. So this took all of the trials
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ื‘ืกืคืจื•ืช ื”ืืงื“ืžื™ืช. ื›ืืŸ ืืกืคื• ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื
07:13
that had ever been conducted on antidepressants
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ืฉืื™-ืคืขื ื ื•ื”ืœื• ืขืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื ื•ื’ื“ื•ืช-ื“ื›ืื•ืŸ
07:15
that were approved over a 15-year period by the FDA.
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ืฉืื•ืฉืจื• ื‘ืžืฉืš 15 ืฉื ื” ืข"ื™ ืžื™ื ื”ืœ ื”ืžื–ื•ืŸ ื•ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
07:19
They took all of the trials which were submitted to the FDA as part of the approval package.
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ื”ื ืืกืคื• ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉื”ื•ื’ืฉื• ืœืžื™ื ื”ืœ ื›ื—ืœืง ืžื—ื‘ื™ืœืช ื”ืื™ืฉื•ืจ
07:23
So that's not all of the trials that were ever conducted on these drugs,
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ ืืœื” ืœื ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉืื™-ืคืขื ื ืขืจื›ื• ืขืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืืœื”,
07:26
because we can never know if we have those,
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ื›ื™ ืœืขื•ืœื ืœื ื ื“ืข ืื ื™ืฉ ื›ืืœื”,
07:28
but it is the ones that were conducted in order to get the marketing authorization.
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ืื‘ืœ ืืœื” ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืฉื ืขืจื›ื• ืœืฆื•ืจืš ื”ืฉื’ืช ื”ืื™ืฉื•ืจ ืœืฉื•ื•ืง ืื•ืชืŸ.
07:31
And then they went to see if these trials had been published
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ื•ื›ืขืช ื”ื ืจืฆื• ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืื ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืืœื” ืคื•ืจืกืžื•
07:34
in the peer-reviewed academic literature. And this is what they found.
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ื‘ืกืคืจื•ืช ื”ืืงื“ืžื™ืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื” ืœื‘ื™ืงื•ืจืช-ืขืžื™ืชื™ื. ื•ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืžืฆืื•:
07:36
It was pretty much a 50-50 split. Half of these trials
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ื”ื™ืชื” ื—ืœื•ืงื” ืฉืœ ื‘ืขืจืš 50-50. ื—ืฆื™ ืžื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ืืœื”
07:40
were positive, half of them were negative, in reality.
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ื”ื™ื• ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ื™ื, ื•ื—ืฆื™ ื”ื™ื• ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื™ื, ืขื“ ื›ืืŸ ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช.
07:43
But when they went to look for these trials in the peer-reviewed academic literature,
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ืืš ื›ืฉืจืฆื• ืœื—ืคืฉ ืืช ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ืืœื” ื‘ืกืคืจื•ืช ื”ืืงื“ืžื™ืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื” ืœื‘ื™ืงื•ืจืช-ืขืžื™ืชื™ื,
07:48
what they found was a very different picture.
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ื”ื ื’ื™ืœื• ืชืžื•ื ื” ืฉื•ื ื” ืœืžื“ื™.
07:50
Only three of the negative trials were published,
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ืคื•ืจืกืžื• ืจืง 3 ืžื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื™ื,
07:54
but all but one of the positive trials were published.
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ื•ื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื”ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ื™ื, ืคืจื˜ ืœืื—ื“, ืคื•ืจืกืžื•.
07:59
Now if we just flick back and forth between those two,
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ืื ืื“ืœื’ ื”ืœื•ืš ื•ื—ื–ื•ืจ ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉื ื™ ืืœื”,
08:03
you can see what a staggering difference there was
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืืช ื”ื”ื‘ื“ืœ ื”ืžื“ื”ื™ื
08:05
between reality and what doctors, patients,
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ื•ื‘ื™ืŸ ืžื” ืฉืจื•ืคืื™ื, ื—ื•ืœื™ื,
08:09
commissioners of health services, and academics
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ื”ืžืžื•ื ื™ื ืขืœ ืฉื™ืจื•ืชื™ ื”ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช ื•ื”ืืงื“ืžืื™ื
08:12
were able to see in the peer-reviewed academic literature.
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ื™ื›ืœื• ืœืžืฆื•ื ื‘ืกืคืจื•ืช ื”ืืงื“ืžื™ืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื” ืœื‘ื™ืงื•ืจืช-ืขืžื™ืชื™ื.
08:15
We were misled, and this is a systematic flaw
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ื”ื•ืœื™ื›ื• ืื•ืชื ื• ืฉื•ืœืœ, ื•ื–ื”ื• ืคื’ื ืฉื™ื˜ืชื™
08:19
in the core of medicine.
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ื‘ืœื‘-ืœื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืจืคื•ืื”.
08:23
In fact, there have been so many studies conducted on
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ื”ืืžืช ื”ื™ื ืฉื ืขืจื›ื• ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ื›ื” ืจื‘ื™ื
08:25
publication bias now, over a hundred, that they've been
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ืขืœ ื”ื˜ื™ื•ืช ื”ืคืจืกื•ื, ืžืขืœ ืžืื”, ื•ื”ื ื ืืกืคื•
08:29
collected in a systematic review, published in 2010,
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ื‘ืกืงื™ืจื” ืฉื™ื˜ืชื™ืช ืฉืคื•ืจืกืžื” ื‘-2010,
08:32
that took every single study on publication bias
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ืฉืœืงื—ื” ื›ืœ ืžื—ืงืจ ื•ืžื—ืงืจ ืขืœ ื”ื˜ื™ื™ืช ื”ืคืจืกื•ื
08:35
that they could find.
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ืฉื™ื›ืœื” ืœืืชืจ.
08:36
Publication bias affects every field of medicine.
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ื”ื˜ื™ื™ืช ื”ืคืจืกื•ื ืžืฉืคื™ืขื” ืขืœ ื›ืœ ืชื—ื•ืžื™ ื”ืจืคื•ืื”.
08:39
About half of all trials, on average, go missing in action,
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ื›ืžื—ืฆื™ืช ืžื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื, ื‘ืžืžื•ืฆืข, ื ืขื“ืจืช ื‘ืงืจื‘,
08:43
and we know that positive findings are around twice as likely
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ื•ืื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื”ืกื‘ื™ืจื•ืช ืœืคืจืกื•ื ืžืžืฆืื™ื ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ื™ื
08:46
to be published as negative findings.
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ื”ื™ื ืคื™ 2 ืžื–ื• ืฉืœ ื”ืžืžืฆืื™ื ื”ืฉืœื™ืœื™ื™ื.
08:49
This is a cancer at the core of evidence-based medicine.
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ื–ื”ื• ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื‘ืœื‘ ื”ืจืคื•ืื” ืžื‘ื•ืกืกืช-ื”ืจืื™ื•ืช.
08:53
If I flipped a coin 100 times but then
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ืื ืื ื™ ืžื˜ื™ืœ ืžื˜ื‘ืข 100 ืคืขื,
08:57
withheld the results from you from half of those tosses,
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ืื‘ืœ ืžืกืชื™ืจ ืžื›ื ืืช ืžื—ืฆื™ืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช,
09:00
I could make it look as if I had a coin that always came up heads.
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ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืฆื™ื’ ื–ืืช ื›ืื™ืœื• ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ืžื˜ื‘ืข ืฉื ื•ืคืœ ืชืžื™ื“ ืขืœ "ืขืฅ".
09:04
But that wouldn't mean that I had a two-headed coin.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืœื ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื™ ืžื˜ื‘ืข ืขื ืฉื ื™ "ืขืฆื™ื".
09:06
That would mean that I was a chancer
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ืืœื ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื™ ืžื–ืœ
09:07
and you were an idiot for letting me get away with it. (Laughter)
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ื•ืืชื ืžืกืคื™ืง ื˜ืคืฉื™ื ืžื›ื“ื™ ืœื—ืฉื•ืฃ ืื•ืชื™. [ืฆื—ื•ืง]
09:10
But this is exactly what we blindly tolerate
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืžื” ืฉืื ื• ืกื•ื‘ืœื™ื ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืขื™ื•ื•ืจืช
09:14
in the whole of evidence-based medicine.
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ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ืจืคื•ืื” ืžื‘ื•ืกืกืช-ื”ืจืื™ื•ืช.
09:18
And to me, this is research misconduct.
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ื•ื‘ืขื™ื ื™ ื–ื• ื”ืชื ื”ื’ื•ืช ืžื—ืงืจื™ืช ืคืกื•ืœื”.
09:22
If I conducted one study and I withheld
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ืื™ืœื• ืขืจื›ืชื™ ืžื—ืงืจ ื‘ื•ื“ื“
09:25
half of the data points from that one study,
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ื•ื”ืกืชืจืชื™ ื—ืฆื™ ืžื ืงื•ื“ื•ืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ืื•ืชื• ืžื—ืงืจ ื™ื—ื™ื“,
09:28
you would rightly accuse me, essentially, of research fraud.
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื ืžืืฉื™ืžื™ื ืื•ืชื™ ื‘ืฆื“ืง ื‘ื–ื™ื•ืฃ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ.
09:33
And yet, for some reason, if somebody conducts
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ืืš ืžืฉื•ื-ืžื”, ื›ืฉืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืขื•ืจืš
09:36
10 studies but only publishes the five that give the result that they want,
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10 ืžื—ืงืจื™ื, ื•ืžืคืจืกื ืจืง ื—ืžืฉืช ืืœื” ืฉื ืชื ื• ืœื• ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ืจืฆื•ื™ื•ืช ืœื•,
09:40
we don't consider that to be research misconduct.
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ืื ื• ืœื ืจื•ืื™ื ื‘ื›ืš ื”ืชื ื”ื’ื•ืช ืžื—ืงืจื™ืช ืคืกื•ืœื”.
09:43
And when that responsibility is diffused between
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ื•ื›ืฉื”ืื—ืจื™ื•ืช ื”ื–ื• ืžืชืคื–ืจืช
09:45
a whole network of researchers, academics,
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืจืฉืช ืฉืœืžื” ืฉืœ ื—ื•ืงืจื™ื, ืืงื“ืžืื™ื,
09:49
industry sponsors, journal editors, for some reason
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ืžืžืžื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืชืขืฉื™ื”, ืขื•ืจื›ื™ ื›ืชื‘ื™-ืขืช, ืžืฉื•ื-ืžื”
09:52
we find it more acceptable,
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ื–ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืงื•ื‘ืœ ืขืœื™ื ื•,
09:54
but the effect on patients is damning.
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ืืš ื”ื”ืฉืคืขื” ืขืœ ื”ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื”ื™ื ื”ืจืกื ื™ืช.
09:57
And this is happening right now, today.
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ื•ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื” ืžืžืฉ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื›ื™ื•ื.
10:02
This is a drug called Tamiflu. Tamiflu is a drug
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ื–ื• ืชืจื•ืคื” ื‘ืฉื "ื˜ืžื™ืคืœื•". "ื˜ืžื™ืคืœื•" ื”ื™ื ืชืจื•ืคื”
10:05
which governments around the world have spent billions
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ืฉืžืžืฉืœื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื ื”ื•ืฆื™ืื•
10:08
and billions of dollars on stockpiling,
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ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ื“ื•ืœืจื™ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืื’ื•ืจ ืื•ืชื”.
10:10
and we've stockpiled Tamiflu in panic,
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ื’ื ืื ื• ืื’ืจื ื• ืืช ื”"ื˜ืžื™ืคืœื•" ืžืชื•ืš ื‘ื”ืœื”,
10:13
in the belief that it will reduce the rate of complications of influenza.
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ืžืชื•ืš ื”ืืžื•ื ื” ืฉื”ื™ื ืชืคื—ื™ืช ืืช ืกื™ื‘ื•ื›ื™ ื”ืฉืคืขืช.
10:17
Complications is a medical euphemism for pneumonia
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"ืกื™ื‘ื•ื›ื™ื" ื‘ืจืคื•ืื” ื”ื™ื ืœืฉื•ืŸ ื ืงื™ื”
10:20
and death. (Laughter)
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ืœื“ืœืงืช-ืจื™ืื•ืช ื•ืžื•ื•ืช. [ืฆื—ื•ืง]
10:25
Now when the Cochrane systematic reviewers
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ื›ืฉื”ืžื‘ืงืจื™ื ื”ืฉื™ื˜ืชื™ื™ื ืฉืœ "ืงื•ืงืจืŸ"
10:28
were trying to collect together all of the data from all
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ื ื™ืกื• ืœืงื‘ืฅ ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ืžื›ืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื
10:30
of the trials that had ever been conducted on whether Tamiflu actually did this or not,
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ืฉืื™-ืคืขื ื‘ื“ืงื• ื”ืื "ื˜ืžื™ืคืœื•" ืื›ืŸ ืขื•ืฉื” ื–ืืช,
10:34
they found that several of those trials were unpublished.
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ื”ื ื’ื™ืœื• ืฉืจื‘ื™ื ืžื”ืžื—ืงืจื™ื ืœื ืคื•ืจืกืžื•.
10:37
The results were unavailable to them.
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ื”ื ืœื ื”ืฆืœื™ื—ื• ืœืงื‘ืœ ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช.
10:39
And when they started obtaining the writeups of those trials through various different means,
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ื•ื›ืฉื”ื—ืœื• ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืืช ืจื™ืฉื•ืžื™ ืื•ืชื ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื, ื‘ื›ืœ ืžื™ื ื™ ื“ืจื›ื™ื,
10:43
through Freedom of Information Act requests, through
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ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื—ื•ืง ื—ื•ืคืฉ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข,
10:45
harassing various different organizations, what they found was inconsistent.
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ืข"ื™ ื”ื˜ืจื“ืช ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื, ื”ื ื’ื™ืœื• ื—ื•ืกืจ-ืขืงื‘ื™ื•ืช.
10:49
And when they tried to get a hold of the clinical study reports,
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ื›ืฉื ื™ืกื• ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืืช ื“ื•ื—ื•ืช ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ืงืœื™ื ื™,
10:52
the 10,000-page long documents that have
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ืžืกืžื›ื™ื ื‘ืื•ืจืš 10,000 ืขืžื•ื“ื™ื
10:55
the best possible rendition of the information,
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ืฉื”ืฆื™ื’ื• ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืืช ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื”,
10:58
they were told they weren't allowed to have them.
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ื ืืžืจ ืœื”ื ืฉืืกื•ืจ ืœื”ื ืœืงื‘ืœ ืื•ืชื.
11:01
And if you want to read the full correspondence
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ืื ืชืจืฆื• ืœืงืจื•ื ืืช ืžืœื•ื ื”ืชื›ืชื•ื‘ืช
11:04
and the excuses and the explanations given by the drug company,
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ื•ืืช ื”ืชื™ืจื•ืฆื™ื ื•ื”ื”ืกื‘ืจื™ื ืฉืœ ื—ื‘ืจืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช,
11:07
you can see that written up in this week's edition
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืžืฆื•ื ื–ืืช ื‘ืžื”ื“ื•ืจืช ื”ืฉื‘ื•ืข ื”ื ื•ื›ื—ื™
11:10
of PLOS Medicine.
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ืฉืœ ื›ืชื‘ ื”ืขืช ื”ืจืคื•ืื™ ืฉืœ "ื”ืกืคืจื™ื” ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ืช ืœืžื“ืข".
11:14
And the most staggering thing of all of this, to me,
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ื•ื”ื›ื™ ืžื“ื”ื™ื ื‘ื›ืœ ื–ื”, ื‘ืขื™ื ื™,
11:18
is that not only is this a problem, not only do we recognize
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ื”ื•ื ืฉืœื ืจืง ืฉื–ื• ื‘ืขื™ื”, ื•ืœื ืจืง ืฉืื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ื‘ื›ืš ื‘ืขื™ื”,
11:22
that this is a problem, but we've had to suffer fake fixes.
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ืืœื ืฉื ื’ื–ืจ ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืกื‘ื•ืœ ืชื™ืงื•ื ื™ื ืžื–ื•ื™ืคื™ื.
11:26
We've had people pretend that this is a problem that's been fixed.
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ื™ืฉ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืืžืจื• ืœื ื• ืฉื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื–ื• ืชื•ืงื ื”.
11:29
First of all, we had trials registers, and everybody said,
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ืงื•ื“ื-ื›ืœ ื”ื™ื• ืœื ื• ืจืฉืžื™-ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื, ื•ื›ื•ืœื ืืžืจื•,
11:31
oh, it's okay. We'll get everyone to register their trials, they'll post the protocol,
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"ืื”, ื–ื” ื‘ืกื“ืจ. ื›ื•ืœื ื™ืชืขื“ื• ืืช ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื”ื, ื ืคืจืกื ืืช ื”ืคืจื•ื˜ื•ืงื•ืœ,
11:35
they'll say what they're going to do before they do it,
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ื”ื ื™ื’ื™ื“ื• ืžื” ื‘ื“ืขืชื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื™ืขืฉื• ื–ืืช,
11:37
and then afterwards we'll be able to check and see if all the trials which
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ื•ืื—"ื› ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืื ื›ืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื
11:39
have been conducted and completed have been published.
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ืฉื ืขืจื›ื• ื•ื”ื•ืฉืœืžื• ืื›ืŸ ืคื•ืจืกืžื•.
11:41
But people didn't bother to use those registers.
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ืื‘ืœ ืื™ืฉ ืœื ื˜ืจื— ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืจืฉืžื™ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื.
11:43
And so then the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors came along,
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ื•ืื– ื‘ืื” ื”ื•ื•ืขื“ื” ื”ืขื•ืœืžื™ืช ืฉืœ ืขื•ืจื›ื™ ื›ืชื‘ื™ ื”ืขืช ื”ืจืคื•ืื™ื™ื
11:46
and they said, oh, well, we will hold the line.
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ื•ื”ื ืืžืจื•, ื ื•, ื˜ื•ื‘. ื ื™ื›ื ืก ืœืžืฆื‘ ื”ืžืชื ื”.
11:48
We won't publish any journals, we won't publish any trials,
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ืœื ื ืคืจืกื ืฉื•ื ื›ืชื‘-ืขืช, ืœื ื ืคืจืกื ืฉื•ื ื ื™ืกื•ื™,
11:50
unless they've been registered before they began.
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ืขื“ ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืฆืข ืจื™ืฉื•ื ืœืคื ื™ ืฉืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื ื‘ื”ื.
11:53
But they didn't hold the line. In 2008, a study was conducted
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ืœื ื ื›ื ืกื• ืœื”ืžืชื ื”. ื‘-2008 ื ืขืจืš ืžื—ืงืจ
11:56
which showed that half of all of trials published by journals
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ืฉื”ืจืื” ืฉื‘ืžื—ืฆื™ืช ืžื›ืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืฉืคื•ืจืกืžื• ืข"ื™ ื›ืชื‘ื™-ืขืช
11:59
edited by members of the ICMJE
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ื•ื–ื›ื” ืœืขืจื™ื›ื” ืข"ื™ ื—ื‘ืจื™ ื”ื•ื•ืขื“ื” ื”ื–ื•,
12:02
weren't properly registered, and a quarter of them weren't registered at all.
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ืœื ื‘ื•ืฆืข ืจื™ืฉื•ื ื ืื•ืช, ื•ืฉื‘ืจื‘ืข ืžื”ื ืœื ื ืขืฉื” ืฉื•ื ืจื™ืฉื•ื.
12:07
And then finally, the FDA Amendment Act was passed
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ื‘ืกื•ืคื• ืฉืœ ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ื•ืขื‘ืจ ื—ื•ืง ื”ืชื™ืงื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืžื™ื ื”ืœ ื”ืžื–ื•ืŸ ื•ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช,
12:10
a couple of years ago saying that everybody who conducts
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ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืžื” ืฉื ื™ื, ืฉืงื•ื‘ืข ืฉื›ืœ ืžื™ ืฉืขื•ืจืš ื ื™ืกื•ื™
12:12
a trial must post the results of that trial within one year.
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ื—ื™ื™ื‘ ืœืคืจืกื ืืช ืชื•ืฆืื•ืชื™ื• ืชื•ืš ืฉื ื” ืื—ืช.
12:16
And in the BMJ, in the first edition of January, 2012,
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ื•ื‘ืžื”ื“ื•ืจืช ื™ื ื•ืืจ 2012 ืฉืœ ื™ืจื—ื•ืŸ ืžืฉืจื“ ื”ืจืคื•ืื” ื•ื”ื›ื™ืจื•ืจื’ื™ื”,
12:20
you can see a study which looks to see if people kept
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ืืคืฉืจ ืœืจืื•ืช ืžื—ืงืจ ืฉื‘ื•ื“ืง ืื ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื•ืžืจื™ื
12:22
to that ruling, and it turns out that only one in five
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ืขืœ ื”ืคืกื™ืงื” ื”ื–ื•, ื•ืžืกืชื‘ืจ ืฉืจืง ืื—ื“ ืžื›ืœ ื—ืžื™ืฉื”
12:26
have done so.
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ืขืฉื• ื›ืŸ.
12:29
This is a disaster.
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ื–ื”ื• ืืกื•ืŸ.
12:32
We cannot know the true effects of the medicines
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ืื™ื ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื“ืขืช ืžื”ืŸ ื”ื”ืฉืคืขื•ืช ื”ืืžื™ืชื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
12:36
that we prescribe if we do not have access
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ืฉืื ื• ืจื•ืฉืžื™ื, ืื ืื™ืŸ ืœื ื• ื’ื™ืฉื”
12:39
to all of the information.
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ืœื›ืœ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข.
12:42
And this is not a difficult problem to fix.
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ื•ืœื ืงืฉื” ืœืชืงืŸ ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื–ื•.
12:46
We need to force people to publish all trials
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืืœืฅ ืื ืฉื™ื ืœืคืจืกื ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื
12:51
conducted in humans, including the older trials,
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ืฉื ืขืจื›ื™ื ื‘ื‘ื ื™-ืื“ื, ื›ื•ืœืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ื”ื™ืฉื ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ,
12:54
because the FDA Amendment Act only asks that you publish the trials conducted after 2008,
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ื›ื™ ื—ื•ืง ื”ืชื™ืงื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืจืฉ ืœืคืจืกื ืจืง ืืช ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืžืื– 2008,
12:58
and I don't know what world it is in which we're only
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ื•ืื ื™ ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืข ืื™ื–ื” ืžื™ืŸ ืขื•ืœื ื–ื”, ืฉื‘ื• ืื ื—ื ื•
13:01
practicing medicine on the basis of trials that completed in the past two years.
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ืขื•ืกืงื™ื ื‘ืจืคื•ืื” ืจืง ืขืœ ืกืžืš ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืฉื”ื•ืฉืœืžื• ื‘ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช.
13:05
We need to publish all trials in humans,
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ืขืœื™ื ื• ืœืคืจืกื ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืฉื ืขืจื›ื• ืขืœ ื‘ื ื™-ืื“ื,
13:07
including the older trials, for all drugs in current use,
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ื›ื•ืœืœ ื”ื™ืฉื ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ, ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืฉื ืžืฆืื•ืช ื›ื™ื•ื ื‘ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉ,
13:10
and you need to tell everyone you know
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ื•ืขืœื™ื›ื ืœื•ืžืจ ืœื›ืœ ืžื™ ืฉืืชื ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื
13:13
that this is a problem and that it has not been fixed.
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ืฉื–ืืช ื‘ืขื™ื”, ื•ืฉืœื ืชื™ืงื ื• ืื•ืชื”.
13:17
Thank you very much. (Applause)
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื. [ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื]
13:20
(Applause)
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[ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื]
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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