What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe | Ben Goldacre

707,633 views ใƒป 2012-09-27

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์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Gwonsang Shin ๊ฒ€ํ† : Yunhi Maeng
00:15
Hi. So, this chap here,
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์•ˆ๋…•ํ•˜์„ธ์š”. ์ž, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ํ•œ ๋‚จ์ž๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:18
he thinks he can tell you the future.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์–ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ฃ .
00:20
His name is Nostradamus, although here the Sun have
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๊ทธ์˜ ์ด๋ฆ„์€ ๋…ธ์ŠคํŠธ๋ผ๋‹ค๋ฌด์Šค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค๋งŒ ํ–‡๋น› ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
00:22
made him look a little bit like Sean Connery. (Laughter)
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ์…˜ ์ฝ”๋„ค๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ™์•„ ๋ณด์ด๋„ค์š”.(์›ƒ์Œ)
00:26
And like most of you, I suspect, I don't really believe
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ, ์ € ์—ญ์‹œ ์ธ๊ฐ„์ด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ
00:29
that people can see into the future.
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๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
00:30
I don't believe in precognition, and every now and then,
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์ €๋Š” ์˜ˆ์–ธ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฑด ๋ฏฟ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:33
you hear that somebody has been able to predict something that happened in the future,
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๊ฐ€๋”์”ฉ ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•ˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๋ฐ,
00:36
and that's probably because it was a fluke, and we only
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์—‰ํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ดด์งœ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์šฐ์—ฐํžˆ ๋“ค์–ด ๋งž์€ ์š”ํ–‰
00:39
hear about the flukes and about the freaks.
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์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ผ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:42
We don't hear about all the times that people got stuff wrong.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์˜ˆ์–ธ์ด ํ‹€๋ ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์€ ํ†ต ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด์งˆ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:46
Now we expect that to happen with silly stories
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๊ทผ๋ฐ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์–ด์ด์—†๋Š” ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋“ค์ด
00:48
about precognition, but the problem is,
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์˜ˆ์–ธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉด ๋ณ„ ์ƒ๊ด€์—†์ง€๋งŒ,
00:51
we have exactly the same problem in academia
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•™๊ณ„,
00:54
and in medicine, and in this environment, it costs lives.
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ํŠนํžˆ ์˜ํ•™๊ณ„์—์„œ๋„ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—” ์ƒ๋ช…์„ ์œ„ํ˜‘ํ•˜์ฃ .
00:59
So firstly, thinking just about precognition, as it turns out,
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๋จผ์ €, ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
01:02
just last year a researcher called Daryl Bem conducted
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์ž‘๋…„์— ๋Œ€๋ฆด ๋ฒฐ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๊ฐ€
01:05
a piece of research where he found evidence
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๋Œ€ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์˜ˆ์ธก์ด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š”
01:07
of precognitive powers in undergraduate students,
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์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„๋ƒˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
and this was published in a peer-reviewed academic journal
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์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ํ•™๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฒ€์ฆ์„ ๊ฑฐ์ณ ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์—๋„ ์‹ค๋ ธ์ฃ .
01:13
and most of the people who read this just said, "Okay, well,
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๊ทธ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ์ฝ์€ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด ๋“ฏํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
01:15
fair enough, but I think that's a fluke, that's a freak, because I know
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์ €๋Š” ์š”ํ–‰์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์ฃ . ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด,
01:17
that if I did a study where I found no evidence
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋Œ€ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋Š”
01:20
that undergraduate students had precognitive powers,
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๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
01:23
it probably wouldn't get published in a journal.
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์•„๋งˆ ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์— ์‹ฃ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
01:26
And in fact, we know that that's true, because
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, ๋งž๋Š” ๋ง์ด์—์š”. ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด
01:29
several different groups of research scientists tried
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๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์˜ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์ด
01:32
to replicate the findings of this precognition study,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์˜จ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฐฉ์‹์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ
01:35
and when they submitted it to the exact same journal,
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๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์— ์ œ์ถœ์„ ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ, ํŽธ์ง‘์ž๋“ค์€
01:38
the journal said, "No, we're not interested in publishing
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"๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์™€ ๊ธฐ์กด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š”
01:41
replication. We're not interested in your negative data."
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๋ฐ›์•„ ๋“ค์ด์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค" ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
01:45
So this is already evidence of how, in the academic
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๋ณด์‹œ๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ ํ•™๊ณ„์—์„œ๋„
01:48
literature, we will see a biased sample of the true picture
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๊ณผํ•™์  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ ์‹ผ ํŽธ๊ฒฌ์˜ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ
01:53
of all of the scientific studies that have been conducted.
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๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:57
But it doesn't just happen in the dry academic field of psychology.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ๊ฒฝ์ง๋œ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌํ•™๊ณ„ ๋ฟ๋งŒ
02:01
It also happens in, for example, cancer research.
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์•” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ๋„ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:05
So in March, 2012, just one month ago, some researchers
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ํ•œ๋‹ฌ์ „์ธ 2012๋…„ 3์›”,
02:09
reported in the journal Nature how they had tried
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๋„ค์ด์ณ ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์— ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋“ค์ด
02:12
to replicate 53 different basic science studies looking at
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53๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์•” ์น˜๋ฃŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„
02:16
potential treatment targets in cancer,
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์žฌ์—ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์•˜๋Š”๋ฐ,
02:20
and out of those 53 studies, they were only able
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๊ทธ 53๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ค‘์—์„œ ๋‹จ 6๊ฐ€์ง€๋งŒ
02:22
to successfully replicate six.
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์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ์—ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:25
Forty-seven out of those 53 were unreplicable.
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53๊ฐœ ์ค‘ 47๊ฐœ๋Š” ์žฌ์—ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ๋˜๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
02:30
And they say in their discussion that this is very likely
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ
02:34
because freaks get published.
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์•ž์„œ ๋งํ•œ ์—‰ํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:36
People will do lots and lots and lots of different studies,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์–‘์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•œ ๋’ค
02:38
and the occasions when it works they will publish,
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์„ฑ๊ณตํ•œ ์‹คํ—˜์€ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๊ณ 
02:41
and the ones where it doesn't work they won't.
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์•ˆ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์ˆจ๊ธด๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:42
And their first recommendation of how to fix this problem,
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์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ œ์•ˆ์„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:46
because it is a problem, because it sends us all down blind alleys,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ˆˆ์„ ๊ฐ€๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
02:49
their first recommendation of how to fix this problem
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์šฐ์„  ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋„
02:51
is to make it easier to publish negative results in science,
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๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฝ๋„๋ก ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ 
02:55
and to change the incentives so that scientists are
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๋˜ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก
02:57
encouraged to post more of their negative results in public.
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์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:02
But it doesn't just happen in the very dry world
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ๋“ค์€ ๊ฒฝ์ง๋œ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•™ ๋ถ„์•ผ์˜
03:06
of preclinical basic science cancer research.
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์•” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๋งŒ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:10
It also happens in the very real, flesh and blood
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์‹คํ—˜ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ด ๋˜๋Š” ์˜ํ•™๊ณ„์—์„œ๋„
03:13
of academic medicine. So in 1980,
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๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1980๋…„์— ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋“ค์ด
03:17
some researchers did a study on a drug called lorcainide,
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๋ถˆ๊ทœ์น™์ ์ธ ์‹ฌ์žฅ๋ฐ•๋™ ์–ต์ œ ์ž‘์šฉ์„ ํ•˜๋Š”
03:20
and this was an anti-arrhythmic drug,
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Lorcainide๋ผ๋Š” ํ•ญ๋ถ€์ •๋งฅ์ œ๋ฅผ
03:22
a drug that suppresses abnormal heart rhythms,
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
03:24
and the idea was, after people have had a heart attack,
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์‹ฌ์žฅ๋งˆ๋น„๋ฅผ ๊ฒช์€ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ
03:27
they're quite likely to have abnormal heart rhythms,
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๋ถˆ๊ทœ์น™์ ์ธ ์‹ฌ์žฅ๋ฐ•๋™ ๋ฆฌ๋“ฌ์„
03:28
so if we give them a drug that suppresses abnormal heart
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๊ณ ์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์•ฝ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜์—ฌ
03:31
rhythms, this will increase the chances of them surviving.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ์กด์œจ์„ ๋†’์ด๊ณ ์ž ํ–ˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
03:34
Early on its development, they did a very small trial,
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์ฒ˜์Œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š”
03:37
just under a hundred patients.
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100๋ช… ๋ฏธ๋งŒ์˜ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:39
Fifty patients got lorcainide, and of those patients, 10 died.
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Lorcainide๋ฅผ ํˆฌ์—ฌ ๋ฐ›์€ 50๋ช… ์ค‘ 10๋ช…์ด ์‚ฌ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:43
Another 50 patients got a dummy placebo sugar pill
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๋‚˜๋งˆ์ง€ 50๋ช…์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์œ„์•ฝ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
03:46
with no active ingredient, and only one of them died.
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๊ทธ๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•œ๋ช…๋งŒ ์‚ฌ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:49
So they rightly regarded this drug as a failure,
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์ด ์ž„์ƒ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ
03:51
and its commercial development was stopped, and because
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์ด ์•ฝ์€ ์‹คํŒจํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ„์ฃผ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ ,
03:54
its commercial development was stopped, this trial was never published.
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์ƒ์—…์  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๊ณผ ์ œ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:58
Unfortunately, over the course of the next five, 10 years,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ทธ ํ›„ 5๋…„, 10๋…„๋™์•ˆ
04:04
other companies had the same idea about drugs that would
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๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด
04:08
prevent arrhythmias in people who have had heart attacks.
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๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ํ•ญ๋ถ€์ •๋งฅ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:10
These drugs were brought to market. They were prescribed
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์‹ฌ์žฅ๋งˆ๋น„๋Š” ๊ฝค ํ”ํ•œ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด๋ผ์„œ
04:12
very widely because heart attacks are a very common thing,
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์ด ์ œํ’ˆ๋“ค์ด ์ถœ์‹œ๋˜์–ด, ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:15
and it took so long for us to find out that these drugs
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์ด ์•ฝ์ด ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ์‚ฌ๋ง์œจ์„ ๋†’์ธ๋‹ค๋Š”
04:19
also caused an increased rate of death
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ๊นจ๋‹ซ๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๊ฑธ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:22
that before we detected that safety signal,
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์ด ํ•ญ๋ถ€์ •๋งฅ์ œ์˜ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ์ด
04:25
over 100,000 people died unnecessarily in America
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์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐ์ง€ํ–ˆ์„๋•
04:31
from the prescription of anti-arrhythmic drugs.
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์ด๋ฏธ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์‹ญ๋งŒ ๋ชฉ์ˆจ์„ ์•—์•„๊ฐ„ ๋’ค์˜€์ฃ .
04:34
Now actually, in 1993,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค 1993๋…„์—
04:38
the researchers who did that 1980 study, that early study,
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1980๋…„ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ–‰ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€
04:41
published a mea culpa, an apology to the scientific community,
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๊ณผ์‹ค์„ ์ธ์ •ํ•˜๊ณ , ์‚ฌ๊ณผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธ€์„ ์‹ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:45
in which they said, "When we carried out our study in 1980,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ "1980๋…„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ
04:48
we thought that the increased death rate that occurred
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ํ•ญ๋ถ€์ •๋งฅ์ œ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋ง๋ฅ ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋Š”
04:50
in the lorcainide group was an effect of chance."
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์šฐ์—ฐํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
04:54
The development of lorcainide was abandoned for commercial reasons,
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ํ•ญ๋ถ€์ •๋งฅ์ œ์˜ ์ƒ์—…์  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์€ ์ค‘๋‹จ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ 
04:56
and this study was never published;
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์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋˜ํ•œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค;
04:57
it's now a good example of publication bias.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ถœํŒ ํŽธํ–ฅ์˜ ์ข‹์€ ์˜ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:00
That's the technical term for the phenomenon where
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹ค์Œ ๊ฐ™์€ ํ˜„์ƒ์˜ ์ „๋ฌธ ์šฉ์–ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
05:02
unflattering data gets lost, gets unpublished, is left
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ํ˜ธ์˜์ ์ด์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋“ค์€ ์œ ์‹ค๋˜๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉฐ
05:06
missing in action, and they say the results described here
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ
05:09
"might have provided an early warning of trouble ahead."
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"๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋ฌธ์ œ์˜ ์†Œ์ง€๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค" ๋ผ๋Š” ๋”ฑ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ถ™์—ฌ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ•œ๋‹ค.
05:14
Now these are stories from basic science.
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์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ ๊ณผํ•™์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋˜
05:17
These are stories from 20, 30 years ago.
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20, 30๋…„ ์ „์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
05:22
The academic publishing environment is very different now.
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ํ•™๊ณ„์˜ ์ถœํŒ(๋ฐœํ‘œ) ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์€ ํ˜„์žฌ ๋งค์šฐ ๋‹ค๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:25
There are academic journals like "Trials," the open access journal,
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"Trials"์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ ‘๊ทผ์„ฑ์ด ์—ด๋ ค์žˆ๋Š” ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:29
which will publish any trial conducted in humans
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์‹คํ—˜์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ด๋“ , ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด๋“ ,
05:32
regardless of whether it has a positive or a negative result.
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์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋„ค์ด์ณ์ง€์— ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:35
But this problem of negative results that go missing in action
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ์žฅ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
05:39
is still very prevalent. In fact it's so prevalent
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋งŒ์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋นˆ๋ฒˆํ•ด์„œ
05:43
that it cuts to the core of evidence-based medicine.
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์ด์   ์ฆ๊ฑฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์˜ํ•™(EBM)์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:49
So this is a drug called reboxetine, and this is a drug
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ reboxetine๋ผ๋Š” ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:52
that I myself have prescribed. It's an antidepressant.
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์ €๋„ ์ด ์•ฝ์„ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:54
And I'm a very nerdy doctor, so I read all of the studies
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ข€ ๊ณ ์ง€์‹ํ•œ ํŽธ์ด๋ผ, ์ด ์•ฝ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ
05:57
that I could on this drug. I read the one study that was published
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค์„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ฝ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:00
that showed that reboxetine was better than placebo,
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ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” reboxetine ๊ฐ€ ์œ„์•ฝ๋ณด๋‹ค ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:03
and I read the other three studies that were published
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋“ค์€
06:05
that showed that reboxetine was just as good as any other antidepressant,
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reboxetine์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ๋งŒํผ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:08
and because this patient hadn't done well on those other antidepressants,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ํ˜ธ์ „๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ํ™˜์ž์—๊ฒŒ ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
06:10
I thought, well, reboxetine is just as good. It's one to try.
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reboxetine์€ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉํ•  ๋งŒ ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:13
But it turned out that I was misled. In fact,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ž˜๋ชป ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:16
seven trials were conducted comparing reboxetine
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ reboxetine์„ ์œ„์•ฝ๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜๋Š”
06:19
against a dummy placebo sugar pill. One of them
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7๊ฐœ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:21
was positive and that was published, but six of them
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ ํ•œ ์‹คํ—˜๋งŒ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ ,
06:24
were negative and they were left unpublished.
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๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ 6๊ฐœ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์€ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:28
Three trials were published comparing reboxetine
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reboxetine๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ 3๊ฐœ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์€
06:29
against other antidepressants in which reboxetine
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reboxetine๊ฐ€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ๋งŒํผ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๊ณ 
06:32
was just as good, and they were published,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:33
but three times as many patients' worth of data was collected
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์„ธ๋ฐฐ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ–ˆ๋˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์€
06:38
which showed that reboxetine was worse than
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reboxetine์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ๋ณด๋‹ค ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋–จ์–ด์ง„๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€์ง€๋งŒ,
06:40
those other treatments, and those trials were not published.
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๊ทธ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:44
I felt misled.
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๋ฐœํ‘œ๋œ ์ž๋ฃŒ์— ์ œ ํŒ๋‹จ์„ ํ๋ ธ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:48
Now you might say, well, that's an extremely unusual example,
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๋„ˆ๋ฌด ํฌ๊ท€ํ•œ ์˜ˆ๋งŒ ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ƒ๊ณ  ๋ฐ˜๋ฐ•ํ•˜์‹ค ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:50
and I wouldn't want to be guilty of the same kind of
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์–ด๋–ค ํŠน์ •ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์ง‘์–ด์„œ
06:52
cherry-picking and selective referencing
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์ผ๋ถ€๋Ÿฌ ๋น„๋‚œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
06:55
that I'm accusing other people of.
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์ ˆ๋Œ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:57
But it turns out that this phenomenon of publication bias
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—๋„ ์ถœํŒ ํŽธํ–ฅ ํ˜„์ƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š”
06:59
has actually been very, very well studied.
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ํ™œ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜์–ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:01
So here is one example of how you approach it.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ถœํŒ ํŽธํ–ฅ์„ ํ”ผํ•  ํ•œ ์ข‹์€ ์˜ˆ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:03
The classic model is, you get a bunch of studies where
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๊ณ ์ „์  ๋ชจ๋ธ์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
07:06
you know that they've been conducted and completed,
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์–ด๋–ค ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์ด ์‹คํ–‰๋˜์–ด ์™„๋ฃŒ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
07:08
and then you go and see if they've been published anywhere
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๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์ด ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ๋Š” ์ง€๋ฅผ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด๋Š ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:10
in the academic literature. So this took all of the trials
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์ €๋Š” 15๋…„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ๋ฏธ ์‹์•ฝ์ฒญ์ด ์Šน์ธํ•œ
07:13
that had ever been conducted on antidepressants
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ํ•ญ์šฐ์šธ์ œ๋“ค์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ์‹คํ–‰๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์„
07:15
that were approved over a 15-year period by the FDA.
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์ฐพ์•„ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:19
They took all of the trials which were submitted to the FDA as part of the approval package.
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์‹์•ฝ์ฒญ์˜ ์Šน์ธ์„ ๋ฐ›๊ธฐ์œ„ํ•ด ์‹คํ–‰๋˜์—ˆ๋˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:23
So that's not all of the trials that were ever conducted on these drugs,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ด ์•ฝ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:26
because we can never know if we have those,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ ‘๊ทผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ „๋ถ€์ธ์ง€ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:28
but it is the ones that were conducted in order to get the marketing authorization.
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์‹์•ฝ์ฒญ์— ์ œ๊ณต๋œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋งˆ์ผ€ํŒ… ๊ถŒํ•œ์„ ์–ป๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‹คํ—˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:31
And then they went to see if these trials had been published
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋‹ค์Œ ์ด ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์ธ ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:34
in the peer-reviewed academic literature. And this is what they found.
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์ด๊ฑธ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”. ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด๊ฑธ ์ฐพ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:36
It was pretty much a 50-50 split. Half of these trials
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50/50์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์˜
07:40
were positive, half of them were negative, in reality.
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๋ฐ˜์€ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€๋Š” ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:43
But when they went to look for these trials in the peer-reviewed academic literature,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์—์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์„ ์ฐพ์•„๋ณด๋ฉด,
07:48
what they found was a very different picture.
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์•„์ฃผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:50
Only three of the negative trials were published,
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๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์ค‘ 3๊ฐœ ๋งŒ์ด
07:54
but all but one of the positive trials were published.
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๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:59
Now if we just flick back and forth between those two,
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ฐฌ์ฐฌํžˆ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด,
08:03
you can see what a staggering difference there was
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์˜์‚ฌ, ํ™˜์ž, ๋ณด๊ฑด ๋‹น๊ตญ์˜ ์ฑ…์ž„์ž,
08:05
between reality and what doctors, patients,
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ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์— ๊ฒŒ์ œ๋œ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ๋“ค๊ณผ
08:09
commissioners of health services, and academics
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์‹ค์ œ ํ˜„์‹ค๊ณผ์˜ ์‚ฌ์ด์—๋Š”
08:12
were able to see in the peer-reviewed academic literature.
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ํฐ ๊ดด๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•จ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
08:15
We were misled, and this is a systematic flaw
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์˜ํ•™๊ณ„์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์— ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ์ฒด๊ณ„์ƒ์˜ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฐ์ ๋“ค์ด
08:19
in the core of medicine.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ž˜๋ชป ์ธ๋„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:23
In fact, there have been so many studies conducted on
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ถœํŒ ํŽธํ–‰ ํ•˜์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์žฅ๋˜์—ˆ๋˜ ์ˆ˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ค‘
08:25
publication bias now, over a hundred, that they've been
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100๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ๋“ค์ด ์ฒด๊ณ„์  ๊ฒ€ํ† ๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ์ณ ์ˆ˜์ง‘๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
08:29
collected in a systematic review, published in 2010,
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2010๋…„์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:32
that took every single study on publication bias
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์ถœํŒ ํŽธํ–ฅ์— ์ž…๊ฐํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์„
08:35
that they could find.
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์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด๋Š” ์ž‘์—…์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:36
Publication bias affects every field of medicine.
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์ถœํŒ ํŽธํ–ฅ์€ ์˜ํ•™๊ณ„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:39
About half of all trials, on average, go missing in action,
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ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ, ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ฐ˜ ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์žฅ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:43
and we know that positive findings are around twice as likely
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๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๋น„ํ•ด
08:46
to be published as negative findings.
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๋‘๋ฐฐ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:49
This is a cancer at the core of evidence-based medicine.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์˜ํ•™์˜ ๋ฐœ๋‹ฌ์— ์•”์ ์ธ ์š”์†Œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:53
If I flipped a coin 100 times but then
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ œ๊ฐ€ 100๋ฒˆ ๋™์ „์„ ๋˜์ ธ
08:57
withheld the results from you from half of those tosses,
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์„ ์•Œ๋ ค์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
09:00
I could make it look as if I had a coin that always came up heads.
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์•ž๋ฉด๋งŒ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๋™์ „์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์ผ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ,
09:04
But that wouldn't mean that I had a two-headed coin.
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์–‘๋ฉด ๋™์ „์„ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐ์ถœ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
09:06
That would mean that I was a chancer
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์ €๋Š” ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์„ ์†์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
09:07
and you were an idiot for letting me get away with it. (Laughter)
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ์†์€ ๋ฐ”๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ . (์›ƒ์Œ)
09:10
But this is exactly what we blindly tolerate
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๊ทผ๊ฑฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์˜ํ•™(EBM)์—์„œ
09:14
in the whole of evidence-based medicine.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์กฐ๊ฑด ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:18
And to me, this is research misconduct.
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด '์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์กฐ์ž‘'์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:22
If I conducted one study and I withheld
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ์•ฝ ํ•œ๊ฐœ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
09:25
half of the data points from that one study,
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๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์ค‘์—์„œ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์„ ๊ฐ์ท„๋‹ค๋ฉด,
09:28
you would rightly accuse me, essentially, of research fraud.
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์ €๋ฅผ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์‚ฌ๊ธฐ๊พผ์œผ๋กœ ๋น„๋‚œํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:33
And yet, for some reason, if somebody conducts
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ•œ ๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ 10๊ฐœ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
09:36
10 studies but only publishes the five that give the result that they want,
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๊ทธ 10๊ฐœ ์‹คํ—˜ ์ค‘์—์„œ 5๊ฐœ๋งŒ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
09:40
we don't consider that to be research misconduct.
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์กฐ์ž‘์„ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:43
And when that responsibility is diffused between
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์ „ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์˜ ์กฐ์ง, ํ•™๊ณ„, ์‚ฐ์—… ์Šคํฐ์„œ, ์ €๋„ ํŽธ์ง‘์ž๋“ค์ด
09:45
a whole network of researchers, academics,
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ์กฐ์ž‘์„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š”
09:49
industry sponsors, journal editors, for some reason
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์ฑ…์ž„๊ฐ์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
09:52
we find it more acceptable,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ธ์‹์€ ๋” ๋ณดํŽธํ™” ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:54
but the effect on patients is damning.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋‹น์žฅ ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์ด ๋ฐ›๋Š” ํ•ด๋Š” ํฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:57
And this is happening right now, today.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
10:02
This is a drug called Tamiflu. Tamiflu is a drug
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ 'ํƒ€๋ฏธํ”Œ๋ฃจ'๋ผ๋Š” ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:05
which governments around the world have spent billions
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ํƒ€๋ฏธํ”Œ๋ฃจ๋Š” ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ •๋ถ€๋“ค์ด
10:08
and billions of dollars on stockpiling,
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์ˆ˜์‹ญ์–ต๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์—ฌ ๋น„์ถ•ํ•œ ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:10
and we've stockpiled Tamiflu in panic,
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ํƒ€๋ฏธํ”Œ๋ฃจ๊ฐ€ ์ธํ”Œ๋ฃจ์—”์ž์˜ ํ•ฉ๋ณ‘์ฆ์„ ์ค„์—ฌ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ
10:13
in the belief that it will reduce the rate of complications of influenza.
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๋ฏฟ์œผ๋ฉด์„œ, ๊ณตํฌ ์†์—์„œ ์ด ์•ฝ์„ ์‚ฌ๋“ค์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
10:17
Complications is a medical euphemism for pneumonia
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์ด ํ•ฉ๋ณ‘์ฆ์ด๋ž€ ํ๋ ด๊ณผ ์‚ฌ๋ง์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š”
10:20
and death. (Laughter)
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์˜ํ•™์  ์™„๊ณก์–ด๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (์›ƒ์Œ)
10:25
Now when the Cochrane systematic reviewers
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์ฝ”ํฌ๋Ÿฐ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์ด
10:28
were trying to collect together all of the data from all
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ํƒ€๋ฏธํ”Œ๋ฃจ์˜ ํšจ๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ํ–‰ํ•ด์ง„ ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
10:30
of the trials that had ever been conducted on whether Tamiflu actually did this or not,
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์ฒด๊ณ„์  ๊ฒ€ํ† ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋˜ ์ค‘
10:34
they found that several of those trials were unpublished.
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๋ช‡๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์‹คํ—˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
The results were unavailable to them.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค์„ ์—ด๋žŒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:39
And when they started obtaining the writeups of those trials through various different means,
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์ •๋ณด๊ณต๊ฐœ๋ฒ•๋“ฑ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์„ ๋™์›ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋งŽ์€ ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋“ค์„ ๊ดด๋กญํ˜€์„œ
10:43
through Freedom of Information Act requests, through
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๊ทธ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ๋“ค์„ ์†์— ๋„ฃ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
10:45
harassing various different organizations, what they found was inconsistent.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ถ€์กฐํ™” ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:49
And when they tried to get a hold of the clinical study reports,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 10,000 ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š”
10:52
the 10,000-page long documents that have
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ํƒ€๋ฏธํ”Œ๋ฃจ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์–ด์žˆ์„ ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฅผ
10:55
the best possible rendition of the information,
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๊ทธ ์ž„์ƒ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ์ž…์ˆ˜ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
10:58
they were told they weren't allowed to have them.
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์—ด๋žŒ์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‹ต๋ณ€๋งŒ ๋“ค์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:01
And if you want to read the full correspondence
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์ œ์•ฝํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐ›์€ ๋ณ€๋ช…๊ณผ ์„ค๋ช…, ์„œ์‹ ์„
11:04
and the excuses and the explanations given by the drug company,
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๋‹ค ๋ณด๊ณ  ์‹ถ์œผ์‹œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
11:07
you can see that written up in this week's edition
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์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ์˜ PLOS Medicine์—
11:10
of PLOS Medicine.
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๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ฒŒ์ œ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
11:14
And the most staggering thing of all of this, to me,
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์ด ์ค‘์—์„œ๋„ ์ €์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ์€
11:18
is that not only is this a problem, not only do we recognize
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ์ผ ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์ธ์‹ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ๋„
11:22
that this is a problem, but we've had to suffer fake fixes.
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๊ฐ€์งœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์œผ๋กœ ๊ณ ํ†ต์„ ๋ฐ›์•„์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:26
We've had people pretend that this is a problem that's been fixed.
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์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋œ ๋“ฏ ๋ณด์ด๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:29
First of all, we had trials registers, and everybody said,
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์šฐ์„  ์‹คํ—˜ ๋“ฑ๋ก์ œ๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์‹œ๋๊ณ , ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
11:31
oh, it's okay. We'll get everyone to register their trials, they'll post the protocol,
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์€ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ธฐ์ „์— ๋“ฑ๋กํ•˜์—ฌ
11:35
they'll say what they're going to do before they do it,
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๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๊ฒŒ์‹œํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ 
11:37
and then afterwards we'll be able to check and see if all the trials which
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฉด ์‹คํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์™„๋ฃŒ๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์ด
11:39
have been conducted and completed have been published.
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๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ํ™•์ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:41
But people didn't bother to use those registers.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋“ฑ๋ก์„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:43
And so then the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors came along,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์ž ๊ตญ์ œ ์˜ํ•™ ์ €์ˆ  ํ˜‘ํšŒ๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์„œ์„œ,
11:46
and they said, oh, well, we will hold the line.
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์ง€์ง€ํ•ด ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:48
We won't publish any journals, we won't publish any trials,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์‹คํ—˜ ์ „์— ๋“ฑ๋กํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์€ ์–ด๋–ค ํ•™์ˆ ์ง€์—๋„
11:50
unless they've been registered before they began.
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์‹ฃ์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:53
But they didn't hold the line. In 2008, a study was conducted
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์•ฝ์†์„ ์–ด๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2008๋…„์˜ ํ•œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋Š”
11:56
which showed that half of all of trials published by journals
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๊ตญ์ œ ์˜ํ•™ ์ €์ˆ  ํ˜‘ํšŒ ํšŒ์›๋“ค์ด ํŽธ์ง‘ํ•˜๋Š” ์ €๋„์— ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์ด
11:59
edited by members of the ICMJE
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๊ทธ ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์„ ์ ˆ์ฐจ์— ๋งž๊ฒŒ ๋“ฑ๋กํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ 
12:02
weren't properly registered, and a quarter of them weren't registered at all.
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1/4์€ ์‹คํ—˜ ๋“ฑ๋ก์„ ์•„์˜ˆ ํ•˜์ง€๋„ ์•Š์•˜์Œ์„ ๋ฐํ˜€ ๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:07
And then finally, the FDA Amendment Act was passed
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งˆ์นจ๋‚ด 2๋…„์ „, ์‹คํ–‰๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜์€
12:10
a couple of years ago saying that everybody who conducts
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ 1๋…„์•ˆ์— ๊ฒŒ์‹œํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š”
12:12
a trial must post the results of that trial within one year.
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์‹์•ฝ์ฒญ ์ˆ˜์ •๋ฒ•์•ˆ์ด ํ†ต๊ณผ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
12:16
And in the BMJ, in the first edition of January, 2012,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜๊ตญ ์˜ํ•™ํšŒ ์ €๋„(BMJ)์˜
12:20
you can see a study which looks to see if people kept
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2012๋…„ 1์›” ์ฒซ์ฃผ ํ˜ธ์— ์‹ค๋ฆฐ
12:22
to that ruling, and it turns out that only one in five
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ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๊ทœ์ •์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ž˜ ์ง€์ผœ ์ง€๋Š” ์ง€๋ฅผ ์กฐ์‚ฌํ–ˆ์ฃ .
12:26
have done so.
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1/5๋งŒ์ด ์ง€ํ‚ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ ๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:29
This is a disaster.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์žฌ์•™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:32
We cannot know the true effects of the medicines
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์˜์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ •๋ณด์— ์ ‘๊ทผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค๋ฉด,
12:36
that we prescribe if we do not have access
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” ์•ฝ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋–ค ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ผ์น ์ง€
12:39
to all of the information.
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์•Œ ๊ธธ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:42
And this is not a difficult problem to fix.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณ ์น˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“  ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:46
We need to force people to publish all trials
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์—ฌ, ์ธ๊ฐ„์—๊ฒŒ ์‹คํ–‰๋œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‹คํ—˜๋“ค์ด
12:51
conducted in humans, including the older trials,
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์˜๋ฌด์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:54
because the FDA Amendment Act only asks that you publish the trials conducted after 2008,
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๋ฏธ์‹์•ฝ์ฒญ ๋ฒ•์€ 2008๋…„ ์ดํ›„์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์— ํ•œํ•ด ๊ฒŒ์ œํ•ด ๋‹ฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ถŒ๊ณ ํ•  ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:58
and I don't know what world it is in which we're only
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์ง€๋‚œ 2๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋œ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•ด์„œ๋งŒ
13:01
practicing medicine on the basis of trials that completed in the past two years.
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์ง„๋ฃŒํ•˜๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ์„ธ์ƒ์ด ์–ด๋–ค ์„ธ์ƒ์ธ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:05
We need to publish all trials in humans,
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์˜์•ฝํ’ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ,
13:07
including the older trials, for all drugs in current use,
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:10
and you need to tell everyone you know
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์•„๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ์ด๋ฉฐ,
13:13
that this is a problem and that it has not been fixed.
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์•„์ง ๊ณ ์ณ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Œ์„ ์•Œ๋ ค์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:17
Thank you very much. (Applause)
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๊ณ ๋ง™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
13:20
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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