What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe | Ben Goldacre
709,469 views ・ 2012-09-27
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Translator: Joseph Geni
Reviewer: Morton Bast
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譯者: Vivian Mig
審譯者: Geoff Chen
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Hi. So, this chap here,
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嗨各位! 這位仁兄呢
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he thinks he can tell you the future.
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自認可以預知未來
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His name is Nostradamus, although here the Sun have
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他的名字是諾斯特拉達姆士,但這張圖看起來
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made him look a little bit like Sean Connery. (Laughter)
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反倒有點像西恩康納瑞
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And like most of you, I suspect, I don't really believe
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我呢,跟大部分的人一樣
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that people can see into the future.
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不太相信人類能預見未來
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I don't believe in precognition, and every now and then,
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我不信這套,但你時常會聽到
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you hear that somebody has been able to predict something that happened in the future,
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有些人能夠預測未來
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and that's probably because it was a fluke, and we only
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大概都是僥倖猜中的吧
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hear about the flukes and about the freaks.
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我們也只能聽到這些不尋常的故事
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We don't hear about all the times that people got stuff wrong.
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看到人凸槌的機會卻很少
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Now we expect that to happen with silly stories
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我們以為只有預知未來這種事才會出錯
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about precognition, but the problem is,
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但實際上,
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we have exactly the same problem in academia
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學術界和醫藥界也有同樣的問題
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and in medicine, and in this environment, it costs lives.
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出錯會賠上人命的
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So firstly, thinking just about precognition, as it turns out,
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現在我們先把焦點放在預知未來上
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just last year a researcher called Daryl Bem conducted
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去年有位名叫Daryl Bem的研究員
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a piece of research where he found evidence
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做了一項研究,證明大學生
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of precognitive powers in undergraduate students,
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有預測未來的能力
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and this was published in a peer-reviewed academic journal
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研究結果收錄在一個同儕審查的學術期刊中
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and most of the people who read this just said, "Okay, well,
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看過的人大部分表示
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fair enough, but I think that's a fluke, that's a freak, because I know
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"好吧算他厲害,但這純粹是僥倖猜中,
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that if I did a study where I found no evidence
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因為我如果做了一個無法證明
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that undergraduate students had precognitive powers,
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大學生有預知能力的研究,
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it probably wouldn't get published in a journal.
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應該就沒有期刊會出版了"
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And in fact, we know that that's true, because
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事實也真的是如此
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several different groups of research scientists tried
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有數個研究團隊試圖
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to replicate the findings of this precognition study,
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重復這項研究的成果
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and when they submitted it to the exact same journal,
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當他們把結果呈給同樣的出版社時
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the journal said, "No, we're not interested in publishing
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出版社表示,"我們對同樣的研究沒興趣,
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replication. We're not interested in your negative data."
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你們的結果與先前的相反,所以我們沒興趣"
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So this is already evidence of how, in the academic
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由此可見,在學術界裡
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literature, we will see a biased sample of the true picture
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許多科學研究
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of all of the scientific studies that have been conducted.
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都存在一種特定偏見
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But it doesn't just happen in the dry academic field of psychology.
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這種導向不只出現在心理學研究
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It also happens in, for example, cancer research.
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在癌症的研究中也會出現
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So in March, 2012, just one month ago, some researchers
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2012年三月,也就是一個月前
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reported in the journal Nature how they had tried
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幾位研究員在自然期刊中表示
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to replicate 53 different basic science studies looking at
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他們重新做了先前53種治療癌症的基本研究
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potential treatment targets in cancer,
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尋找治療癌症的可行方法
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and out of those 53 studies, they were only able
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53項研究中,
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to successfully replicate six.
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只有6項成功
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Forty-seven out of those 53 were unreplicable.
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有47項是失敗的
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And they say in their discussion that this is very likely
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討論過程中他們表示,這個結果很可能是因為
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because freaks get published.
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不尋常的事物容易備受矚目
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People will do lots and lots and lots of different studies,
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人們做了一大堆研究
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and the occasions when it works they will publish,
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成功的實驗結果會被公諸於世
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and the ones where it doesn't work they won't.
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失敗的結果不會受到注意
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And their first recommendation of how to fix this problem,
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這些研究員對這個問題提出解決辦法
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because it is a problem, because it sends us all down blind alleys,
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這個問題將大眾導入迷途
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their first recommendation of how to fix this problem
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他們認為處理這個問題的辦法
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is to make it easier to publish negative results in science,
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即是使失敗的研究結果受到更多重視
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and to change the incentives so that scientists are
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改變研究動機,鼓勵科學家勇於
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encouraged to post more of their negative results in public.
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公布失敗的結果
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But it doesn't just happen in the very dry world
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這不只發生在臨床基本癌症研究
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of preclinical basic science cancer research.
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這不只發生在臨床基本癌症研究
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It also happens in the very real, flesh and blood
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這也發生在活生生的學術醫藥中
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of academic medicine. So in 1980,
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1980年幾位研究員
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some researchers did a study on a drug called lorcainide,
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對一種叫lorcainide的藥物做研究
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and this was an anti-arrhythmic drug,
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這是一種抗心律失常藥
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a drug that suppresses abnormal heart rhythms,
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用來抑制異常的心搏
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and the idea was, after people have had a heart attack,
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病人心臟病發後
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they're quite likely to have abnormal heart rhythms,
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很有可能心律不整
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so if we give them a drug that suppresses abnormal heart
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若給病人能夠抑制異常心搏的藥
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rhythms, this will increase the chances of them surviving.
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便能提高存活率
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Early on its development, they did a very small trial,
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初期試用階段,他們對一百多名病患
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just under a hundred patients.
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做了一個試驗
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Fifty patients got lorcainide, and of those patients, 10 died.
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五十名服用lorcainide的患者中,有十人死亡
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Another 50 patients got a dummy placebo sugar pill
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另外五十名服用單純糖做的藥丸
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with no active ingredient, and only one of them died.
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只有一個人死亡
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So they rightly regarded this drug as a failure,
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他們馬上認定這是個失敗的藥物
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and its commercial development was stopped, and because
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廣告活動也停止宣傳
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its commercial development was stopped, this trial was never published.
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因為如此,試驗結果也從未公布
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Unfortunately, over the course of the next five, 10 years,
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不幸的是,五年、十年過後
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other companies had the same idea about drugs that would
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其他藥廠開發了同樣能
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prevent arrhythmias in people who have had heart attacks.
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抑制心臟病患異常心搏的藥
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These drugs were brought to market. They were prescribed
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這些藥在市面販售,又因為心臟疾病普遍
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very widely because heart attacks are a very common thing,
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這些藥經常變成處方藥物
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and it took so long for us to find out that these drugs
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我們花了很久的時間才發現
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also caused an increased rate of death
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這些藥物會提高死亡率
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that before we detected that safety signal,
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在我們發覺這些危險前
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over 100,000 people died unnecessarily in America
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美國有十萬人因服用抗心律失常藥而白白送命
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from the prescription of anti-arrhythmic drugs.
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美國有十萬人因服用抗心律失常藥而白白送命
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Now actually, in 1993,
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而在1993年
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the researchers who did that 1980 study, that early study,
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1980年做過早期試驗的那批研究員
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published a mea culpa, an apology to the scientific community,
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發表了一篇悔過書,向科學界致歉
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in which they said, "When we carried out our study in 1980,
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他們表示 "1980年進行lorcainide試驗時,
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we thought that the increased death rate that occurred
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我們以為死亡率的提升只是巧合"
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in the lorcainide group was an effect of chance."
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我們以為死亡率的提升只是機率問題"
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The development of lorcainide was abandoned for commercial reasons,
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基於商業因素,lorcainide停止研發
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and this study was never published;
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這項試驗結果也從未公布
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it's now a good example of publication bias.
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由此可見出版業的偏見
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That's the technical term for the phenomenon where
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也就是不起眼的資訊常遭到封殺
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unflattering data gets lost, gets unpublished, is left
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不是被埋沒就是沒下文
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missing in action, and they say the results described here
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他們表示,這個結果"原本有可能做為警惕"
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"might have provided an early warning of trouble ahead."
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他們表示,這個結果"原本有可能做為警惕"
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Now these are stories from basic science.
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以上只是基層科學方面的故事
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These are stories from 20, 30 years ago.
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而且距今也二、三十年了
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The academic publishing environment is very different now.
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現今的學術出版業已截然不同
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There are academic journals like "Trials," the open access journal,
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有一個叫Trials(實驗)的公開期刊
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which will publish any trial conducted in humans
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收錄各種與人體有關的實驗結果
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regardless of whether it has a positive or a negative result.
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結果是好是壞都會被收錄
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But this problem of negative results that go missing in action
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但失敗的實驗結果仍普遍遭到隱埋
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is still very prevalent. In fact it's so prevalent
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事實上這種情況甚至影響到
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that it cuts to the core of evidence-based medicine.
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講究科學根據為重的藥物研發
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So this is a drug called reboxetine, and this is a drug
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這是一種叫rebozetine的藥
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that I myself have prescribed. It's an antidepressant.
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我曾把這種藥物開做處方,對抗憂鬱症
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And I'm a very nerdy doctor, so I read all of the studies
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身為一個菜鳥醫生,我竭盡所能的查詢
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that I could on this drug. I read the one study that was published
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與此藥有關的研究,其中一篇表示
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that showed that reboxetine was better than placebo,
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reboxetine比安慰劑(寬心丸)有效
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and I read the other three studies that were published
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又有三篇表示
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that showed that reboxetine was just as good as any other antidepressant,
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reboxetine和其他的抗憂鬱藥效果相當
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and because this patient hadn't done well on those other antidepressants,
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由於其他藥對我的病人幫助不大
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I thought, well, reboxetine is just as good. It's one to try.
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我就嘗試使用藥效類似的reboxetine
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But it turned out that I was misled. In fact,
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結果我被誤導了,事實上
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seven trials were conducted comparing reboxetine
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在七項比較reboxetine與安慰劑的實驗中
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against a dummy placebo sugar pill. One of them
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在七項比較reboxetine與安慰劑的實驗中
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was positive and that was published, but six of them
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只有一個的結果是正面的
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were negative and they were left unpublished.
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其他六項負面的結果都沒被公布
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Three trials were published comparing reboxetine
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有三項顯示reboxetine
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against other antidepressants in which reboxetine
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與其他抗憂鬱劑效果相當的實驗結果被公布
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was just as good, and they were published,
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與其他抗憂鬱劑效果相當的實驗結果被公布
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but three times as many patients' worth of data was collected
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但有三倍的病例顯示reboxetine的效果
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which showed that reboxetine was worse than
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不如其他治療方式
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those other treatments, and those trials were not published.
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這些結果也並未被公布
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I felt misled.
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我覺得被誤導了
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Now you might say, well, that's an extremely unusual example,
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你或許認為這只是少數極端的例子
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and I wouldn't want to be guilty of the same kind of
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我也不想斷章取義,只挑有利的資料
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cherry-picking and selective referencing
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我也不想斷章取義,只挑有利的資料
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that I'm accusing other people of.
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藉此指控他人
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But it turns out that this phenomenon of publication bias
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但後來發現其實有很多人
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has actually been very, very well studied.
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研究這種偏頗的出版取向
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So here is one example of how you approach it.
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我舉個例子解釋
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The classic model is, you get a bunch of studies where
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最常見的方式即是蒐集大量
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you know that they've been conducted and completed,
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完整的實驗結果
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and then you go and see if they've been published anywhere
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然後查明他們是否出現在學術文章中
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in the academic literature. So this took all of the trials
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現在這裡是十五年來所有
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that had ever been conducted on antidepressants
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與抗憂鬱劑有關的實驗
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that were approved over a 15-year period by the FDA.
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全都經過FDA認可
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They took all of the trials which were submitted to the FDA as part of the approval package.
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他們把所有FDA有列入的試驗劃為一組
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So that's not all of the trials that were ever conducted on these drugs,
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所以並不是每個試驗都有列入
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because we can never know if we have those,
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因為我們無從得知他人的實驗計畫
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but it is the ones that were conducted in order to get the marketing authorization.
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但所選的實驗結果是為了上市而檢驗
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And then they went to see if these trials had been published
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接著我們得看看這些結果是否有公布
07:34
in the peer-reviewed academic literature. And this is what they found.
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在同儕審查的學術文章中,這是我們發現的
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It was pretty much a 50-50 split. Half of these trials
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一半的結果顯示有效,一半顯示無效
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were positive, half of them were negative, in reality.
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兩者其實差距不大
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But when they went to look for these trials in the peer-reviewed academic literature,
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但我們在同儕審查的期刊中找到的試驗結果
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what they found was a very different picture.
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卻是相當不同
07:50
Only three of the negative trials were published,
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只有三個負面結果被公布
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but all but one of the positive trials were published.
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正面結果中只有一個沒被公布
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Now if we just flick back and forth between those two,
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如果我們快速切換兩者
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you can see what a staggering difference there was
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你會發現事實與醫生、病患、
08:05
between reality and what doctors, patients,
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醫療行政人員透過同儕審查的期刊
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commissioners of health services, and academics
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所得知的資訊有著天壤之別
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were able to see in the peer-reviewed academic literature.
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所得知的資訊有著天壤之別
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We were misled, and this is a systematic flaw
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我們都被誤導了,在醫藥界中
08:19
in the core of medicine.
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這是一個深入核心的體制問題
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In fact, there have been so many studies conducted on
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事實上現在有很多研究
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publication bias now, over a hundred, that they've been
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旨在研究這種出版偏向
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collected in a systematic review, published in 2010,
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在2010年公布的一項系統性調查中
08:32
that took every single study on publication bias
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每一個研究出版取向的研究
08:35
that they could find.
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加起來總共超過一百多項
08:36
Publication bias affects every field of medicine.
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整個醫療界會徹底的受影響
08:39
About half of all trials, on average, go missing in action,
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平均多達一半的試驗都從而消失了
08:43
and we know that positive findings are around twice as likely
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正面試驗結果被公布的機率
08:46
to be published as negative findings.
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比負面結果高了近兩倍
08:49
This is a cancer at the core of evidence-based medicine.
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在講究根據為重的醫藥界裡是一個弊端
08:53
If I flipped a coin 100 times but then
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如果我把一個硬幣拋擲一百次
08:57
withheld the results from you from half of those tosses,
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但只告訴你一半的結果
09:00
I could make it look as if I had a coin that always came up heads.
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我就能讓你以為每次投擲都是正面
09:04
But that wouldn't mean that I had a two-headed coin.
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但並不表是硬幣的兩面都是正面
09:06
That would mean that I was a chancer
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這只表示我是個投機者
09:07
and you were an idiot for letting me get away with it. (Laughter)
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而你是個白癡,因為你讓我得過且過(笑聲)
09:10
But this is exactly what we blindly tolerate
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但在已根據為重的醫藥界裡
09:14
in the whole of evidence-based medicine.
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我們卻盲目縱容
09:18
And to me, this is research misconduct.
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對我來說,這是研究上的誤導缺失
09:22
If I conducted one study and I withheld
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如果我進行了一個研究
09:25
half of the data points from that one study,
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並保留一半的研究結果不公布
09:28
you would rightly accuse me, essentially, of research fraud.
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你會義正嚴詞地指控我研究詐欺
09:33
And yet, for some reason, if somebody conducts
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但出於某種原因,如果有人做了十項研究
09:36
10 studies but only publishes the five that give the result that they want,
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卻只公布五個他們想看的結果
09:40
we don't consider that to be research misconduct.
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我們也不會認為那是誤導研究
09:43
And when that responsibility is diffused between
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而當責任遍及整體研究員、學術界、
09:45
a whole network of researchers, academics,
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贊助人、已及期刊編輯時,基於某些原因
09:49
industry sponsors, journal editors, for some reason
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贊助人已及期刊編輯時,基於某些原因
09:52
we find it more acceptable,
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我們會認為一切相當合理
09:54
but the effect on patients is damning.
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但病人卻得承擔這些嚴重的後果
09:57
And this is happening right now, today.
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這些事情正在發生
10:02
This is a drug called Tamiflu. Tamiflu is a drug
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這是一種叫Tamiflu的藥
10:05
which governments around the world have spent billions
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世界各地的政府花了好幾十億資金
10:08
and billions of dollars on stockpiling,
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貯藏這個藥物
10:10
and we've stockpiled Tamiflu in panic,
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我們慌忙貯藏此藥的原因乃因
10:13
in the belief that it will reduce the rate of complications of influenza.
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此藥被認為能夠減少流感的併發症
10:17
Complications is a medical euphemism for pneumonia
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併發症說穿了就是肺炎
10:20
and death. (Laughter)
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和死路一條(笑聲)
10:25
Now when the Cochrane systematic reviewers
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現在Cochrane的系統審查員正試圖
10:28
were trying to collect together all of the data from all
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蒐集所有測試Tamiflu用途的實驗
10:30
of the trials that had ever been conducted on whether Tamiflu actually did this or not,
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蒐集所有測試Tamiflu用途的實驗
10:34
they found that several of those trials were unpublished.
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他們發現有幾個試驗並未公布
10:37
The results were unavailable to them.
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試驗結果也無從取得
10:39
And when they started obtaining the writeups of those trials through various different means,
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當他們透過不同管道,透過資訊透明法案
10:43
through Freedom of Information Act requests, through
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並騷擾各個不同單位後
10:45
harassing various different organizations, what they found was inconsistent.
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他們發現結果互相矛盾
10:49
And when they tried to get a hold of the clinical study reports,
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在他們試圖取得長達一萬多頁
10:52
the 10,000-page long documents that have
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並付有清晰完整的臨床研究報告時
10:55
the best possible rendition of the information,
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並付有清晰完整的臨床研究報告時
10:58
they were told they weren't allowed to have them.
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卻無法取得
11:01
And if you want to read the full correspondence
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若你想查看藥廠完整的
11:04
and the excuses and the explanations given by the drug company,
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信件內容、藉口、和解釋的話
11:07
you can see that written up in this week's edition
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可以去翻翻這星期的PLOS Medicine期刊
11:10
of PLOS Medicine.
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可以去翻翻這星期的PLOS Medicine期刊
11:14
And the most staggering thing of all of this, to me,
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整件事中最令我無法置信的是
11:18
is that not only is this a problem, not only do we recognize
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這不只是一個單純的問題,我們雖然知道
11:22
that this is a problem, but we've had to suffer fake fixes.
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這是個問題,卻還得裝作問題已解決
11:26
We've had people pretend that this is a problem that's been fixed.
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我們逼人們假裝這個問題已解決
11:29
First of all, we had trials registers, and everybody said,
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首先我們讓各方註冊試驗結果
11:31
oh, it's okay. We'll get everyone to register their trials, they'll post the protocol,
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各方會先提出實驗草案
11:35
they'll say what they're going to do before they do it,
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事先告知實驗內容
11:37
and then afterwards we'll be able to check and see if all the trials which
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之後我們就能查明
11:39
have been conducted and completed have been published.
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是否所有完整的實驗結果都有透明化
11:41
But people didn't bother to use those registers.
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但人們並沒有乖乖來註冊
11:43
And so then the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors came along,
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國際醫療期刊委員會就上前
11:46
and they said, oh, well, we will hold the line.
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表示他們會守住防線
11:48
We won't publish any journals, we won't publish any trials,
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並不會公布任何未經註冊的實驗結果
11:50
unless they've been registered before they began.
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並不會公布任何未經註冊的實驗結果
11:53
But they didn't hold the line. In 2008, a study was conducted
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但他們並未履行責任,2008年一項研究發現
11:56
which showed that half of all of trials published by journals
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國際醫療委員會編審的期刊中
11:59
edited by members of the ICMJE
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一半以上的實驗結果
12:02
weren't properly registered, and a quarter of them weren't registered at all.
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並未正式註冊,有四分之一甚至未經註冊
12:07
And then finally, the FDA Amendment Act was passed
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直到最後,幾年前FDA修正案終於通過
12:10
a couple of years ago saying that everybody who conducts
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並規定所有實驗的結果
12:12
a trial must post the results of that trial within one year.
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必須在實驗結束一年內公布
12:16
And in the BMJ, in the first edition of January, 2012,
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而2012年BMJ中,一月的第一期版本中
12:20
you can see a study which looks to see if people kept
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有項研究,研究人們是否依然遵循規定
12:22
to that ruling, and it turns out that only one in five
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結果顯示五人中只有人有做到
12:26
have done so.
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結果顯示五人中只有一人有做到
12:29
This is a disaster.
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這是個災難
12:32
We cannot know the true effects of the medicines
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若我們無法取得所有資訊
12:36
that we prescribe if we do not have access
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就無從得知處方藥物的實效
12:39
to all of the information.
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就無從得知處方藥物的實效
12:42
And this is not a difficult problem to fix.
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而這並不難解決
12:46
We need to force people to publish all trials
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我們必須強迫人們公布
12:51
conducted in humans, including the older trials,
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所有人體實驗,包括舊有的試驗
12:54
because the FDA Amendment Act only asks that you publish the trials conducted after 2008,
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因為FDA修正案指要求公布2008之後的試驗
12:58
and I don't know what world it is in which we're only
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我搞不懂為何我們只能
13:01
practicing medicine on the basis of trials that completed in the past two years.
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根據兩年內的研究資料進行醫療
13:05
We need to publish all trials in humans,
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所有與人體有關的實驗都得公布
13:07
including the older trials, for all drugs in current use,
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先前的實驗和現用的藥物也是
13:10
and you need to tell everyone you know
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你必須告訴所有認識的人
13:13
that this is a problem and that it has not been fixed.
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這是一個尚未解決的問題
13:17
Thank you very much. (Applause)
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謝謝! (掌聲)
13:20
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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