Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | Alexander Betts

翻译人员: Jin Wu 校对人员: Yutong Wu

I am British.

我是一名英国人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

Never before has the phrase "I am British" elicited so much pity.

这句话从来没有 引起过这样的怜悯。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I come from an island where many of us like to believe

就像我们中大多数想的那样， 我来自于一座岛，

there's been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years.

在过去的一千多年里 文化在那里延续传承。

We tend to have historically imposed change on others

我们总是会给别人带来种种变革，

but done much less of it ourselves.

但却没给自己带来多少。

So it came as an immense shock to me

所以当我在6月24号的早晨醒来，

when I woke up on the morning of June 24

我感到很震惊,

to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union,

我的国家进行了公投，决定脱离欧盟，

my Prime Minister had resigned,

首相辞职了，

and Scotland was considering a referendum

苏格兰也考虑重启公投，

这有可能会分裂我的国家。

that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom.

So that was an immense shock for me,

对我，甚至对其他很多人来说，

and it was an immense shock for many people,

这简直就是晴天霹雳，

but it was also something that, over the following several days,

这件事也在过去的这些日子里

created a complete political meltdown

给我的国家制造了一个重大的

in my country.

政治危机。

There were calls for a second referendum,

有人呼吁进行第二轮公投，

almost as if, following a sports match,

就像是进行一场体育竞赛一样，

we could ask the opposition for a replay.

我们可以提出申诉并要求重来。

Everybody was blaming everybody else.

所有人都在互相责怪。

People blamed the Prime Minister

人们指责首相，

for calling the referendum in the first place.

指责他允许了这次公投。

指责反对人士抗议得不够彻底。

They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough.

年轻人指责老年人。

The young accused the old.

The educated blamed the less well-educated.

知识分子指责教育程度低的人。

That complete meltdown was made even worse

这场危机更因为一种现象而

by the most tragic element of it:

变得更加糟糕：

levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain

我从没有在英国街头看到过

at a level that I have never seen before

如此严重的排外现象，

in my lifetime.

以及种族歧视。

People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England,

人们在讨论我的国家可能会变成小英格兰，

or, as one of my colleagues put it,

或者是，按我同事的话说，

whether we're about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park

我们就要变成一个在大西洋上飘着的

floating in the Atlantic Ocean.

五十年代怀旧主义公园。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But my question is really,

但是我的问题是，

should we have the degree of shock that we've experienced since?

我们应该为这种事情的发生 而感到如此的震惊吗？

Was it something that took place overnight?

它是一夜间突然就发生的事情吗？

Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today?

或者，有没有一些更深层次的原因 让我们走到了今天？

So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions.

所以我打算回头想一想， 提两个最基本的问题。

First, what does Brexit represent,

第一个，英国脱欧对于全球所有的人，

not just for my country,

不仅仅是我的同胞，

but for all of us around the world?

到底意味着什么？

And second, what can we do about it?

第二，我们能做什么？

How should we all respond?

我们要怎样应对？

So first, what does Brexit represent?

所以第一，英国脱欧意味着什么？

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

前车之鉴总是好的。

Brexit teaches us many things about our society

英国脱欧给我们的国家以及其他的国家，

and about societies around the world.

上了内容丰富的一课。

It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of

它突显了我们的社会现在 存在着从未被察觉的

how divided our societies are.

巨大的分歧。

The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography.

投票者按年龄、教育程度、收入 和地域区进行了划分。

Young people didn't turn out to vote in great numbers,

除了那些想留在欧盟的，

but those that did wanted to remain.

年轻人中投票的并不是很多。

Older people really wanted to leave the European Union.

年龄大些的人们则很想离开欧盟。

Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed

从地理位置来讲，伦敦和苏格兰强烈地

to being part of the European Union,

想要留在欧盟，

while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence.

而与此同时， 其他地区的人们却更加矛盾和纠结。

Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously.

这些分歧应当好好被了解以及重视。

But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something

但是往深里说， 这次公投告诉了我们

about the nature of politics today.

当今政治的本质。

Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.

当代政治不再仅仅是左翼与右翼。

It's no longer just about tax and spend.

不再仅仅是收税以及开支。

It's about globalization.

当代政治是全球性的。

The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization

当代政治的分界线是 接受全球化，

and those that fear globalization.

还是拒绝全球化。

(Applause)

（掌声）

If we look at why those who wanted to leave --

如果我们看看脱欧者——

we call them "Leavers," as opposed to "Remainers" --

对应于留欧者——想要脱欧的理由，

we see two factors in the opinion polls

我们可以在他们的理由里看到两点，

that really mattered.

两个重要的点。

The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty,

第一个是移民，第二个是主权，

and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives

这些代表了人们想要掌管自己人生的欲望，

and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians.

还有那些没被政治家所表达的感受。

But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation.

但是那些想法意味着恐惧与抵触，

They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders

它们代表着向民族主义 以及两极分化趋势的倒退，

而这却是我们很多人不愿看到的。

in ways that many of us would reject.

What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that,

我想要描述的是一个比那个更复杂的局面，

that liberal internationalists,

即自由国际主义者，

like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture,

我就是其中之一， 我把自己也归到这一类人当中，

need to write ourselves back into the picture

需要退回到当初那个大环境中，

in order to understand how we've got to where we are today.

才能理解我们是如何走到今天这个地步的。

When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom,

当我们看到英国公投结果的地域分布图时，

we can visibly see the divisions.

可以明显看到分界线。

The blue areas show Remain

蓝色地区的想要留下，

and the red areas Leave.

红色地区的想要离开。

When I looked at this,

当我看到这个的时候，

让我感到吃惊的， 是我生命里只有短暂的时光

what personally struck me was the very little time in my life

I've actually spent in many of the red areas.

花在了红色地区里。

I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK

我最终意识到，我的生命中只有4天

that have the strongest Leave vote,

花在了脱欧意愿

I've spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas.

最强烈的50个区。

In some of those places,

在有些地方，

I didn't even know the names of the voting districts.

我甚至不知道那些选区的名字。

It was a real shock to me,

这真的让我深受打击，

and it suggested that people like me

它提醒了像我这样的人，

who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant,

我们自认为是 包容、开放、慷慨的一群人，

perhaps don't know our own countries and societies

却可能并不像我们以为的那样

nearly as well as we like to believe.

了解我们的国家和社会。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way

脱欧带来的挑战是，我们需要 寻找到一条新出路，

让这些人接受全球化的现状，

to narrate globalization to those people,

to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university,

要认识到那些没有上过大学的人，

who haven't necessarily grown up with the Internet,

没有接触过网络的人，

that don't get opportunities to travel,

没有机会旅游的人，

他们可能不会为我们鼓吹的自由主义

they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive

in our often liberal bubbles.

“糖衣炮弹”所动摇。

(Applause)

(掌声）

It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand.

这意味着，我们需要理解和接受 更广泛的事物。

In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred,

在决定离开的投票中， 一小部份人煽动着人们的负面情绪，

creating lies and mistrust

制造着谎言与猜疑，

around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe

比如，他们会传播

could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,

离开欧盟可以减少难民以及 来英国寻求庇护的人这种观点，

when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration

但事实上离开欧盟根本不会减少

from outside the European Union.

来自欧盟以及其他国家的移民。

But for a significant majority of the Leave voters

但是大部分脱欧人士

the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment.

都怀有由现有政治体系而引发的担忧。

This was a protest vote for many,

这是许多人对于不被尊重，

a sense that nobody represented them,

不被关注，

没有党派为其发声的一种反抗，

that they couldn't find a political party that spoke for them,

and so they rejected that political establishment.

所以他们想要拒绝现有的政治系统。

This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world.

这样的现象在欧洲以及世界上 其它很多自由的民主社会里比比皆是。

We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States,

我们看到在美国，川普赢得了很多支持。

with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,

在匈牙利，欧尔班·维克托 带领着民族主义进步，

with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France.

在法国，玛丽·勒庞支持率大涨。

The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.

英国脱欧的势力渗透在 每一个这样的社会中。

So the question I think we need to ask is my second question,

所以，我认为我们需要问的问题， 也就是我第二个问题，

which is how should we collectively respond?

我们应该如何合理应对？

For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies,

对于所有关心自由、开放、包容的人，

we urgently need a new vision,

我们迫切地需要一种新的憧憬，

a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization,

更加包容，更加全球化，

one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.

更能将人们团结在一起。

That vision of globalization

要实现那种全球化的憧憬，

is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization.

需要首先认识到全球化的正面影响。

The consensus amongst economists

经济学家的共识是

自由贸易、资本的移动，

is that free trade, the movement of capital,

the movement of people across borders

人员自由的流动，

benefit everyone on aggregate.

能给所有人带来利益。

The consensus amongst international relations scholars

国际关系学家一致认同

is that globalization brings interdependence,

国际化伴随着相互依存，

which brings cooperation and peace.

并带来合作与和平。

But globalization also has redistributive effects.

但是全球化也会有副作用。

It creates winners and losers.

会有赢家也会有失败者。

To take the example of migration,

就比方说移民，

we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole

我们知道移民可以给 宏观经济带来益处，

under almost all circumstances.

在所有的环境下几乎无一例外。

But we also have to be very aware

但我们也需要对此保持谨慎态度，

that there are redistributive consequences,

因为这也会带来负面影响，

that importantly, low-skilled immigration

不容忽视的就是，未受到良好教育的移民

can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies

会拉低社会中低收入人群的工资水平，

and also put pressure on house prices.

并且会促进房价的上涨。

That doesn't detract from the fact that it's positive,

这些还不能与它所能带来的好处相提并论，

but it means more people have to share in those benefits

但这也意味着， 更多的人无可避免会享受到它所带来的好处，

and recognize them.

并且不得不承认这一点。

In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,

在2002年，前联合国秘书长科菲安南

gave a speech at Yale University,

在耶鲁大学做了一个演讲，

and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization.

那个演讲的题目是全球化的包容性。

That was the speech in which he coined that term.

他正是在这篇演讲里奠定了那番陈述。

And he said, and I paraphrase,

他讲到，我在这里复述一下，

"The glass house of globalization has to be open to all

“全球化的大门将必须向所有人敞开，

if it is to remain secure.

这样才能带来安定。

Bigotry and ignorance

偏执与无知

are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization."

是反全球化和排外者的丑陋外表。”

That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008

这种全球化的想法在2008年时又短暂出现 在公众视线里，

in a conference on progressive governance

那是一个讨论渐进式管理的会议，

involving many of the leaders of European countries.

很多欧盟领导人都出席了。

But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008,

但这次会议只是针对2008年的经济危机，

the concept disappeared almost without a trace.

在那之后这个想法便几乎消失得无影无踪。

Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda.

全球化被用来支持新自由主义议程。

It's perceived to be part of an elite agenda

它被认为是精英议程的一部分，

rather than something that benefits all.

并不会为所有人带来利益。

And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis

它更需要建立在一个比今天

than it is today.

更加包容的世界。

So the question is, how can we achieve that goal?

所以问题是， 我们怎样才能达到那个目标？

How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation

我们如何才能恰到好处地处理恐惧和抵触心理，

while on the other hand refusing vehemently

又不过分地

to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?

反对排外主义与民族主义？

That is the question for all of us.

这是我们所有人需要面对的问题。

And I think, as a social scientist,

另外，我认为， 身为一名社会科学家，

that social science offers some places to start.

我可以提供一些着手思考的点。

Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change,

我们的转型一定是物质 与思想上的同时转型，

and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.

我想给出四个转型的想法来抛砖引玉。

The first relates to the idea of civic education.

第一个与国民教育有关。

What stands out from Brexit

英国脱欧突显的是

is the gap between public perception and empirical reality.

公众看法与依靠经验判断现实的分歧。

It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society,

有证据显示， 我们已经进入后真实社会。

where evidence and truth no longer matter,

证据与真理已经不再重要，

and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence.

谎言与事实具有同等地位。

So how can we --

所以，我们怎样—

(Applause)

（掌声）

How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies?

我们怎样才能在我们的自由民主社会中， 重新建立起对于真理和证据的尊重？

It has to begin with education,

要做到这些，必先着手于教育，

但是，这首先需要人们意识到 巨大分歧的存在。

but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.

In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI

在2014年，民意调查专家Ipsos MORI

published a survey on attitudes to immigration,

公开了一个关于移民问题的民意调查，

and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase,

它指出当移民的数量上升的时候，

社会对于移民的担忧也会上升，

so public concern with immigration also increases,

although it obviously didn't unpack causality,

然而这并不能直接表明任何因果关系，

because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers

因为这跟数字没有很大的关系，

but the political and media narrative around it.

倒是政治和媒体宣传的作用更明显。

But the same survey also revealed

这份调查还指出了

huge public misinformation

民众获取了许多的错误信息，

and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration.

对于移民也有本质上的误解。

For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom,

举个例子，在英国，

the public believed that levels of asylum

有这种公众认为开设避难所的数量

were a greater proportion of immigration than they were,

比真正移民数量的比例要高，

but they also believed the levels of educational migration

公众还低估了受过教育的移民

were far lower as a proportion of overall migration

在所有移民中

than they actually are.

所占的比例。

So we have to address this misinformation,

所以我们要纠正这些误解，

the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization.

这种认识与现实之间的差距， 正是全球化的关键所在。

And that can't just be something that's left to our schools,

但这些任务不能只交给学校，

although that's important to begin at an early age.

虽然教育年轻一代很重要。

It has to be about lifelong civic participation

这需要成为一个终身计划，

and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.

从整个社会的角度，应该鼓励民众终身参与其中， 要调动公众的积极性。

The second thing that I think is an opportunity

第二个是机遇，

is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.

让不同的社会团体进行更多的交流。

(Applause)

（掌声）

One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly,

有一件事让我感到很震惊，

looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom,

纵观英国人对于移民的态度，

is that ironically, the regions of my country

讽刺的是，那些

that are the most tolerant of immigrants

最包容移民的区域

have the highest numbers of immigrants.

有着最高的移民人口。

So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants,

比如， 伦敦和东南地区有着最多的移民，

and they are also by far the most tolerant areas.

它们也是目前最包容开放的地区。

It's those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration

那些有着最低移民比例的地区

that actually are the most exclusionary and intolerant towards migrants.

是最排外，对移民最不包容的。

So we need to encourage exchange programs.

所以我们需要鼓励交换计划。

We need to ensure that older generations who maybe can't travel

我们需要确保那些 不能外出的老年人

get access to the Internet.

可以上网。

We need to encourage, even on a local and national level,

我们需要鼓励，甚至从地方和国家层面来支持

更多的活动，更多的参与机会，

more movement, more participation,

与更多我们不熟悉的人进行交流，

more interaction with people who we don't know

and whose views we might not necessarily agree with.

包括那些与我们意见相左的人们。

The third thing that I think is crucial, though,

我想到的第三点是决定性的，

and this is really fundamental,

并且是最基础的，

is we have to ensure that everybody shares

我们需要确认所有人都能

in the benefits of globalization.

享受到全球化的益处。

This illustration from the Financial Times post-Brexit is really striking.

英国脱欧带来的经济问题是严峻的。

It shows tragically that those people who voted to leave the European Union

那些选择脱欧的人

却是那些通过欧洲贸易

were those who actually benefited the most materially

from trade with the European Union.

得到大量实质性收益的人。

But the problem is that those people in those areas

但是，问题在于那些得益的人

didn't perceive themselves to be beneficiaries.

并没有意识到他们在其中收到了益处。

They didn't believe that they were actually getting access

他们不相信自己真的 因此而得到了实质性的收获，

to material benefits of increased trade and increased mobility around the world.

也能因此而更方便地 进行国际贸易和周游世界。

I work on questions predominantly to do with refugees,

我主要致力于解决难民的问题,

and one of the ideas I spent a lot of my time preaching,

我花了很多时间在一个观点上，

mainly to developing countries around the world,

来劝导发展中国家，

is that in order to encourage the integration of refugees,

鼓励它们团结难民，

we can't just benefit the refugee populations,

我们不能仅仅为难民群体带来益处，

我们还需要解决地方社区的担忧。

we also have to address the concerns of the host communities in local areas.

But in looking at that,

但是深入了解它，

one of the policy prescriptions is that we have to provide

解决这个问题的方法是

disproportionately better education facilities, health facilities,

我们需要按人口比例 为那些有着大量移民的地区

access to social services

提供更好的教育、医疗、

in those regions of high immigration

社会福利，

to address the concerns of those local populations.

以消除当地人口的顾虑。

But while we encourage that around the developing world,

但当我们在发展中国家 使用此方针的同时，

we don't take those lessons home

我们并没有在自己的国家中应用，

and incorporate them in our own societies.

从而发展我们的社会。

Furthermore, if we're going to really take seriously

如果我们真的将它重视起来，

the need to ensure people share in the economic benefits,

让每个人都可以享受到经济利益，

our businesses and corporations need a model of globalization

我们的商业公司更需要 一个全球化的样本，

that recognizes that they, too, have to take people with them.

使他们意识到需要 带领别人一起发展。

The fourth and final idea I want to put forward

第四个，也是我最后一个想法是，

is an idea that we need more responsible politics.

我们需要更负责任的政治制度。

There's very little social science evidence

只有很少的社会科学的调查

that compares attitudes on globalization.

提供了对于全球化不同看法的比较。

But from the surveys that do exist,

但是根据调查，

what we can see is there's huge variation across different countries

我们可以看到不同的国家在不同的时间段内，

and time periods in those countries

对于一边是移民、

for attitudes and tolerance

人口流动，

of questions like migration and mobility on the one hand

另一边是自由贸易的状况，

and free trade on the other.

存在着巨大的分歧。

But one hypothesis that I think emerges from a cursory look at that data

但是通过对那些数据进行研究， 我得到一种假设，

is the idea that polarized societies are far less tolerant of globalization.

两极分化的社会对于全球化 抱有极不包容的态度。

It's the societies like Sweden in the past,

比如过去的瑞典，

like Canada today,

今天的加拿大一样，

where there is a centrist politics,

有着一个集中化的政体，

where right and left work together,

左翼与右翼政党携手合作，

that we encourage supportive attitudes towards globalization.

我们鼓励那些支持全球化的态度。

And what we see around the world today is a tragic polarization,

我们今天的世界处在恶劣的两极分化中，

a failure to have dialogue between the extremes in politics,

政界两派有着恶劣的沟通环境，

and a gap in terms of that liberal center ground

并且有着巨大鸿沟以及分歧，

that can encourage communication and a shared understanding.

这需要彼此的沟通以及理解。

We might not achieve that today,

我们也许不会立刻达成共识，

but at the very least we have to call upon our politicians and our media

但是我们至少要让政客以及媒体 采取一些行动，

to drop a language of fear and be far more tolerant of one another.

让他们采取行动，彼此更加包容。

(Applause)

（掌声）

These ideas are very tentative,

这些想法的可行性很高，

and that's in part because this needs to be an inclusive and shared project.

应该在具有包容性和共享的项目中被采纳。

I am still British.

我依然是一个英国人。

I am still European.

我依然是一个欧洲人。

I am still a global citizen.

我依然是一个全球公民。

For those of us who believe

对于我们这些认为

that our identities are not mutually exclusive,

我们的身份并非相互排斥的人，

we have to all work together

我们需要一起协作，

to ensure that globalization takes everyone with us

确保全球化可以让所有人都收益，

and doesn't leave people behind.

没有人掉队，或被忽视。

Only then will we truly reconcile democracy and globalization.

只有这样， 才可以带来真正的民主以及全球化。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）