Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | Alexander Betts

譯者: Jin Wu 審譯者: Coco Shen

I am British.

我是一名英國人。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Never before has the phrase "I am British" elicited so much pity.

這句話從來不曾引起這樣的同情。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I come from an island where many of us like to believe

我來自一座島， 那裡有很多人認為

there's been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years.

過去的千年有一些連貫性。

We tend to have historically imposed change on others

縱觀歷史，我們時常 要求他人改革

but done much less of it ourselves.

卻很少改變自己。

So it came as an immense shock to me

於是我有些措手不及，

when I woke up on the morning of June 24

當我在6月24號的早晨醒來

to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union,

發現我的國家決定脫離歐盟，

my Prime Minister had resigned,

首相辭職，

and Scotland was considering a referendum

蘇格蘭考慮重啟公投，

that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom.

意味著大英帝國有可能瓦解。

So that was an immense shock for me,

我很震驚，

and it was an immense shock for many people,

許多人和我一樣，

but it was also something that, over the following several days,

脫歐公投的結果在這幾天

created a complete political meltdown

讓我國的政治

in my country.

經歷全面性的崩潰。

There were calls for a second referendum,

有人提議舉行第二輪公投，

almost as if, following a sports match,

簡直像是比賽後，

we could ask the opposition for a replay.

馬上要求對手重比過。

Everybody was blaming everybody else.

所有人都在互相責怪。

People blamed the Prime Minister

人們指責首相

for calling the referendum in the first place.

指責他提議舉行公投。

They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough.

指責留歐陣營沒有用盡全力。

The young accused the old.

年輕人指責老年人。

The educated blamed the less well-educated.

知識分子指責未受良好教育的人。

That complete meltdown was made even worse

這場危機裡最可怕，

by the most tragic element of it:

也最糟糕的是，

levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain

我從未曾在英國街頭

at a level that I have never seen before

經歷過這種的排外現象

in my lifetime.

以及種族歧視。

People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England,

人們在討論我的國家會變成小英格蘭

or, as one of my colleagues put it,

或者是，按我同事的話說

whether we're about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park

我們就要變成一個在大西洋上漂浮的

floating in the Atlantic Ocean.

五十年代懷舊主題樂園。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But my question is really,

但我想問的是，

should we have the degree of shock that we've experienced since?

我們該如此震驚嗎？

Was it something that took place overnight?

它是隔夜突然發生的事件嗎？

Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today?

或者，那些深層的結構性因素 帶來了今日的結果？

So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions.

我想退一步問兩個問題：

First, what does Brexit represent,

第一個，英國脫歐意味著什麼？

not just for my country,

不僅僅對我的國家

but for all of us around the world?

對全球人民有何象徵意義？

And second, what can we do about it?

第二，我們能做什麼？

How should we all respond?

我們要怎樣應對？

So first, what does Brexit represent?

所以第一，英國脫歐意味著什麼？

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

後見之明是件美好的事，

Brexit teaches us many things about our society

英國脫歐不但讓我們看清我們的社群

and about societies around the world.

也看清了其它地方類似的社群。

It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of

它讓我們知道，我們對社會分歧

how divided our societies are.

的無知程度。

The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography.

年齡、教育程度、階級和地域 形成兩個陣營。

Young people didn't turn out to vote in great numbers,

年輕人的投票率不高，

but those that did wanted to remain.

但投票的大多數贊同留歐。

Older people really wanted to leave the European Union.

年長的人們想要離開歐盟。

Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed

按地區分，倫敦和蘇格蘭強烈地

to being part of the European Union,

想要留在歐盟

while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence.

與此同時， 其他地區的人們更偏向脫歐。

Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously.

我們應該認知並重視這些分歧。

But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something

這次公投深刻地告訴我們

about the nature of politics today.

今日政治的本質。

Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.

當代政治不再僅僅是左翼與右翼。

It's no longer just about tax and spend.

政治不在是稅務以及開支。

It's about globalization.

當代政治與全球化有關。

The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization

當代政治的分歧來自熱愛全球化

and those that fear globalization.

以及恐懼全球化的兩方。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

If we look at why those who wanted to leave --

如果我們

we call them "Leavers," as opposed to "Remainers" --

看看脫歐者想要脫歐的理由

we see two factors in the opinion polls

我們可以在他們的理由裡看到兩點

that really mattered.

兩個重要的點。

The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty,

第一個是移民，第二個是主權，

and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives

這些代表了人們想要拿回 他們自己人生的掌控權，

and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians.

這是政治人物未曾為他們喉舌的恐懼。

But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation.

但是那些想法意味著恐懼與排外，

They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders

代表向民族主義 以及邊境管制靠攏

in ways that many of us would reject.

這是我們大都不願意接受的方式。

What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that,

我想展示的是比較複雜的全景

that liberal internationalists,

是像我一樣的自由國際主義者

like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture,

也在其中的全景

need to write ourselves back into the picture

因為我們必須身在其中，

in order to understand how we've got to where we are today.

才能理解 我們是怎麼走到今天這一步的。

When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom,

當我們看到英國全國公投的模式

we can visibly see the divisions.

我們可以清楚的看見分歧。

The blue areas show Remain

藍色地區的想要留下

and the red areas Leave.

紅色地區的想要離開。

When I looked at this,

當我看到這個的時候

what personally struck me was the very little time in my life

讓我為之震驚的是， 我人生中幾乎沒有什麼時間

I've actually spent in many of the red areas.

是在紅色地區裡度過的。

I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK

我突然發現，

that have the strongest Leave vote,

全國50個最想離開歐盟的地區，

I've spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas.

我只在其中待過四天。

In some of those places,

我甚至不知道

I didn't even know the names of the voting districts.

某些選區的地名。

It was a real shock to me,

我感到很震驚。

and it suggested that people like me

這表示我們這些自認包容、開放、

who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant,

接納他人的人，

perhaps don't know our own countries and societies

其實並沒有像我們想像的

nearly as well as we like to believe.

這麼瞭解自己的國家和社會。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way

我們的挑戰是找到一種新方式

to narrate globalization to those people,

向他們描述全球化，

to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university,

理解那些沒有上過大學的人，

who haven't necessarily grown up with the Internet,

不是和網路一起長大的人，

that don't get opportunities to travel,

沒有機會去旅行的人，

they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive

我們在自由主義泡泡中形成的論述

in our often liberal bubbles.

恐怕是他們無法接受的。

(Applause)

(掌聲）

It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand.

這意味著，我們需要接觸大眾， 廣為理解。

In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred,

在脫歐的選票中， 一小部份人煽動著人們的情緒

creating lies and mistrust

製造謊言與欺騙

around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe

他們說，脫歐可以減少

could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,

那些從歐洲來的難民與尋求庇護者 進入英國，

when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration

當脫歐與歐盟外來的移民

from outside the European Union.

毫無關聯的時候。

But for a significant majority of the Leave voters

但是大部分選擇脫毆的人

the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment.

表達的是一種對政治體系的理想幻滅。

This was a protest vote for many,

這是那些沒有政治家在政府裡代表 他們權益的人

a sense that nobody represented them,

找不到屬於自己黨派的人

that they couldn't find a political party that spoke for them,

他們拒絕現在的政治體制

and so they rejected that political establishment.

並投出這具有抗議性質的選票。

This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world.

這發生在歐洲， 以及世界上其他很多民主社會裡。

We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States,

在美國川普贏得了很多支持

with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,

在匈牙利增長的民族主義 歐爾班·維克托

with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France.

以及在法國支持率大漲的瑪麗·勒龐。

The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.

脫歐的幽靈籠罩在我們的社會中。

So the question I think we need to ask is my second question,

我們該問的第二個問題是，

which is how should we collectively respond?

我們該如何回應？作為群體。

For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies,

對於所有關心自由、開放、包容的人們

we urgently need a new vision,

我們需要發現全球化的正面影響

a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization,

並迫切地需要一個更加包容、 寬容的新社會

one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.

一個讓人們參與， 而不是排擠他們的社會

That vision of globalization

全球化的正面影響，

is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization.

可以一視同仁，雨露均沾的社會。

The consensus amongst economists

經濟學家的共識

is that free trade, the movement of capital,

是自由貿易、資本的移動

the movement of people across borders

人力遷徙流動的自由

benefit everyone on aggregate.

並給所有人帶來利益。

The consensus amongst international relations scholars

國際關係學家一致認同

is that globalization brings interdependence,

國際化伴隨著相互依存

which brings cooperation and peace.

並帶來合作與和平。

But globalization also has redistributive effects.

但是全球化也會有副作用。

It creates winners and losers.

它帶來了贏家以及失敗者。

To take the example of migration,

就比方說移民

we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole

我們知道移民可以給 宏觀經濟帶來益處

under almost all circumstances.

在幾乎所有情況裡。

But we also have to be very aware

但我們也需要對此保持謹慎態度

that there are redistributive consequences,

因為這也會帶來負面影響

that importantly, low-skilled immigration

技術層次較低的移民

can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies

會降低本國窮苦大眾的工資，

and also put pressure on house prices.

同時提高住房價格。

That doesn't detract from the fact that it's positive,

但這些還不能與它所能帶來的好處 相比較。

but it means more people have to share in those benefits

這意味著， 更多的人需要分享它所帶來的好處

and recognize them.

並且了解它們。

In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,

在2002年前聯合國秘書長安南

gave a speech at Yale University,

在耶魯大學做了一個演講

and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization.

那個演講的題目是全球化的包容性。

That was the speech in which he coined that term.

他在他的演講裡創造了那個詞。

And he said, and I paraphrase,

他大概是這麼說的，

"The glass house of globalization has to be open to all

“全球化的入口需要向所有人敞開

if it is to remain secure.

才能維持安定。

Bigotry and ignorance

偏執與無知

are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization."

將會是全球化排擠拒絕某些人的結果。”

That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008

包容型全球化的想法在2008年時又出現 在公眾視線裡

in a conference on progressive governance

在一個進步政府的大會中

involving many of the leaders of European countries.

很多歐盟領導人參與其中。

But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008,

但在2008年的經濟危機

the concept disappeared almost without a trace.

讓這些想法消失的無影無蹤。

Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda.

全球化被用來支持新自由主義議程。

It's perceived to be part of an elite agenda

它被認為是精英政治的一部分

rather than something that benefits all.

而不是針對所有人的利益。

And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis

它需要建立在一個比今天

than it is today.

包容性更強的基礎上。

So the question is, how can we achieve that goal?

所以問題是， 我們怎樣才能達到那個目標？

How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation

我們怎樣權衡， 解決恐慌與異化

while on the other hand refusing vehemently

與此同時

to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?

不陷入排外主義與民族主義？

That is the question for all of us.

這是我們所有人該回答的問題。

And I think, as a social scientist,

身為一名社會科學家

that social science offers some places to start.

社會科學提供了一些著手思考的起點，

Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change,

我們的轉型一定是 形而上和形而下雙方的，

and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.

我想以四個想法開始。

The first relates to the idea of civic education.

第一個與國民教育有關。

What stands out from Brexit

英國脫毆凸顯的是

is the gap between public perception and empirical reality.

公眾看法與現實之間的分歧。

It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society,

有證據顯示， 我們已經進入後真實社會。

where evidence and truth no longer matter,

證據與真理已經不再重要

and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence.

謊言與事實往往站在同一高度。

So how can we --

所以，我們怎樣—

(Applause)

（掌聲）

How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies?

我們怎樣才能在自由民主的社會中 中間對事實和證據的信任與尊重？

It has to begin with education,

這必須從教育開始，

but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.

這必須從意識到巨大分歧存在開始。

In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI

在2014年，民意調查機構 Ipsos MORI

published a survey on attitudes to immigration,

公布了一份針對移民態度的調查

and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase,

它指出，移民的數量上升的時候

so public concern with immigration also increases,

社會對於移民的擔憂也會上升

although it obviously didn't unpack causality,

雖然它很明顯並沒有拆分因果關係，

because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers

因為這不需要用數字

but the political and media narrative around it.

僅是用政治與媒體宣傳就可以表明。

But the same survey also revealed

這份調查同時顯示出

huge public misinformation

公眾得到許多錯誤的資料

and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration.

和對於移民本質的誤解。

For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom,

舉個例子，在英國

the public believed that levels of asylum

公眾認為難民的數量

were a greater proportion of immigration than they were,

比移民數量的比例還高，

but they also believed the levels of educational migration

公眾還低估了移民的教育程度，

were far lower as a proportion of overall migration

認為受過教育的移民

than they actually are.

不是整體移民的主要來源。

So we have to address this misinformation,

我們需要修正這些錯誤資料。

the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization.

認知與現實之間的差距， 是全球化的關鍵問題。

And that can't just be something that's left to our schools,

我們不能只把這個任務交給學校

although that's important to begin at an early age.

雖然從小學起非常關鍵。

It has to be about lifelong civic participation

這需要成為一個終身計劃

and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.

我們鼓勵社會帶動公眾參與。

The second thing that I think is an opportunity

第二個是機遇

is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.

讓不同社群進行更多的交流。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly,

令我驚奇的事

looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom,

當我們觀察英國面對移民的態度，

is that ironically, the regions of my country

那些

that are the most tolerant of immigrants

最包容移民的區域

have the highest numbers of immigrants.

往往移民數量也最高。

So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants,

譬如， 倫敦和東南地區有著最多的移民

and they are also by far the most tolerant areas.

它們也是最包容開放的地區。

It's those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration

那些有著低移民的地區

that actually are the most exclusionary and intolerant towards migrants.

是最排外以及對移民是最不包容的

So we need to encourage exchange programs.

所以我們需要鼓勵交換計劃。

We need to ensure that older generations who maybe can't travel

我們需要確保那些 不去旅遊的長輩

get access to the Internet.

至少可以上網。

We need to encourage, even on a local and national level,

我們需要鼓勵地方甚至是國家層面

more movement, more participation,

需要更多的活動， 更多的參與

more interaction with people who we don't know

更多的與我們不熟悉的人交流

and whose views we might not necessarily agree with.

那些與我們想法不同的人。

The third thing that I think is crucial, though,

第三個是決定性的

and this is really fundamental,

並且是最基礎的

is we have to ensure that everybody shares

我們得要確認所有人都能

in the benefits of globalization.

分享到全球化的益處。

This illustration from the Financial Times post-Brexit is really striking.

英國脫歐帶來的經濟問題是嚴峻的。

It shows tragically that those people who voted to leave the European Union

那些選擇脫歐的人

were those who actually benefited the most materially

卻是那些在歐盟貿易

from trade with the European Union.

得到最多實質收益的人。

But the problem is that those people in those areas

但是，問題在於那些得益的人

didn't perceive themselves to be beneficiaries.

並沒有意識到他們在其中收到了益處

They didn't believe that they were actually getting access

他們不相信通過增加世界範圍的

to material benefits of increased trade and increased mobility around the world.

貿易以及流動性能得到利益。

I work on questions predominantly to do with refugees,

我主要致力於解決難民的問題

and one of the ideas I spent a lot of my time preaching,

我花了很多時間

mainly to developing countries around the world,

來勸導發展中國家

is that in order to encourage the integration of refugees,

當一個社會要開始接受難民

we can't just benefit the refugee populations,

我們不能僅僅為難民群體帶來益處

we also have to address the concerns of the host communities in local areas.

我們需要解決地方社區的擔憂。

But in looking at that,

但是深入了解它

one of the policy prescriptions is that we have to provide

解決這個問題的方法是

disproportionately better education facilities, health facilities,

我們需要提供

access to social services

更好的教育、醫療以及社會福利

in those regions of high immigration

在那些有著高外來人口的地區裡

to address the concerns of those local populations.

並且消除當地人口的顧慮。

But while we encourage that around the developing world,

但當我們在發展中國家 使用此方針的同時

we don't take those lessons home

我們卻忘了將它帶回我們自己的國家

and incorporate them in our own societies.

應用在我們的社會裡。

Furthermore, if we're going to really take seriously

如果我們真的認真

the need to ensure people share in the economic benefits,

讓每個人都可以享受到經濟利益

our businesses and corporations need a model of globalization

我們的公司和企業需要 一個全球化的模範

that recognizes that they, too, have to take people with them.

讓他們意識到他們 必須帶領人們同時發展。

The fourth and final idea I want to put forward

第四個，也是我最後一個想法

is an idea that we need more responsible politics.

我們需要一個懂得負責的政治。

There's very little social science evidence

有關面對全球化的不同態度

that compares attitudes on globalization.

社會科學沒有很多對比數據。

But from the surveys that do exist,

但是根據現有的文獻，

what we can see is there's huge variation across different countries

我們可以看到在國家與國家之間 存在著很大的鴻溝

and time periods in those countries

在調查那些國家在一段時間內

for attitudes and tolerance

關於對移民、

of questions like migration and mobility on the one hand

人口流動包容度的態度

and free trade on the other.

以及另一層面對貿易的態度。

But one hypothesis that I think emerges from a cursory look at that data

但是通過對於那些數據的研究 我有一個結論

is the idea that polarized societies are far less tolerant of globalization.

越是分化的社會， 越不接受全球化。

It's the societies like Sweden in the past,

能開懷接受全球化的， 通常是集中型政治，

like Canada today,

像過去的瑞典

where there is a centrist politics,

今天的加拿大

where right and left work together,

左翼與右翼政黨攜手合作，

that we encourage supportive attitudes towards globalization.

一同支持鼓勵全球化的推進。

And what we see around the world today is a tragic polarization,

我們今天的世界是一個極端

a failure to have dialogue between the extremes in politics,

政界兩頭的溝通環境惡劣

and a gap in terms of that liberal center ground

並且有著巨大鴻溝以及分歧

that can encourage communication and a shared understanding.

這需要溝通以及理解。

We might not achieve that today,

也許不會立刻達成

but at the very least we have to call upon our politicians and our media

但是我們還是要讓政客以及媒體 做出一些行動

to drop a language of fear and be far more tolerant of one another.

放棄恐懼，寬容接受他者。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

These ideas are very tentative,

這些想法是絕對可行的，

and that's in part because this needs to be an inclusive and shared project.

這需要大家的包容和共享。

I am still British.

我依然是一個英國人。

I am still European.

我依然是一個歐洲人。

I am still a global citizen.

我依然是個全球公民。

For those of us who believe

對於我們這些認為

that our identities are not mutually exclusive,

這些身份並不專屬於我們的人

we have to all work together

我們需要同心合作，

to ensure that globalization takes everyone with us

確保全球化可以讓所有人參與

and doesn't leave people behind.

不會遺漏任何一個個體。

Only then will we truly reconcile democracy and globalization.

只有這樣， 才可以帶來真正的民主以及全球化。

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）