Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next | Alexander Betts

Translator: Alan Watson Reviewer: Winnie Ling

I am British.

我係英國人

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Never before has the phrase "I am British" elicited so much pity.

「我係英國人」呢句說話

從來未引起過咁多人同情

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I come from an island where many of us like to believe

我嚟自一個島國

好多人都相信 過去咁多年有好多嘢持續發生緊

there's been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years.

We tend to have historically imposed change on others

歷史上，我哋傾向改變其他國家

but done much less of it ourselves.

但好少改變自己

So it came as an immense shock to me

所以當我六月廿四號朝早起身

when I woke up on the morning of June 24

發現我個國家公投結果係脫歐之後

to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union,

我好震驚

my Prime Minister had resigned,

首相辭咗職

and Scotland was considering a referendum

蘇格蘭講緊第二場公投

有可能令英國瓦解

that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom.

So that was an immense shock for me,

所以成件事對於我嚟講都幾震撼

and it was an immense shock for many people,

對於好多人嚟講都係

but it was also something that, over the following several days,

但呢件事幾日後

created a complete political meltdown

發展成我國家嘅一個政治危機

in my country.

There were calls for a second referendum,

有呼聲話要舉行第二場公投

almost as if, following a sports match,

呢個情況就好似運動比賽完咗

we could ask the opposition for a replay.

我哋叫對手重新比賽一樣

Everybody was blaming everybody else.

每個人都指責其他人

People blamed the Prime Minister

人民指責首相

for calling the referendum in the first place.

話佢當初做咩搞公投

They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough.

啲人鬧在野黨黨魁唔夠努力爭取

後生指控老人家

The young accused the old.

The educated blamed the less well-educated.

受過教育責備無受過良好教育嘅

That complete meltdown was made even worse

危機裏面最不幸嘅事

令成個危機更差

by the most tragic element of it:

levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain

仇外同種族情緒充斥喺英國街頭

at a level that I have never seen before

去到我前所未見嘅水平

in my lifetime.

People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England,

啲人宜家講緊究竟我個國家

會變成小英格蘭

or, as one of my colleagues put it,

定係好似我同事話齋

whether we're about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park

變成一個浮沉喺大西洋嘅

五十年代懷舊公園

floating in the Atlantic Ocean.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But my question is really,

但我嘅問題係

should we have the degree of shock that we've experienced since?

我哋應唔應該保持震驚嘅程度呢？

Was it something that took place overnight?

究竟脫歐係咪一夜之間出現呢？

Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today?

定係有深層結構性因素

令我哋走到今日咁嘅地步？

So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions.

我想退一步，問兩個好基本嘅問題

First, what does Brexit represent,

第一，英國脫歐代表咩？

not just for my country,

唔只對我國家

but for all of us around the world?

佢對全世界有咩意思？

And second, what can we do about it?

第二，我哋可以喺脫歐之後做啲乜？

How should we all respond?

我哋要點樣應對？

So first, what does Brexit represent?

返去第一條問題，英國脫歐代表咩？

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

事後孔明係一件有趣嘅事

Brexit teaches us many things about our society

脫歐教曉好多關於我哋社會嘅嘢

and about societies around the world.

以至世界上其他社會嘅嘢

It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of

脫歐呢件事反映咗

我哋唔為意我哋社會有幾分裂

how divided our societies are.

The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography.

投票取向因年齡、教育程度、

階級同地理位置而唔同

Young people didn't turn out to vote in great numbers,

年輕人唔踴躍投票

but those that did wanted to remain.

但出咗嚟投票嘅年輕人都投咗留歐

Older people really wanted to leave the European Union.

長者想脫歐

Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed

地理上，倫敦同蘇格蘭最想留歐

to being part of the European Union,

while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence.

而其他地方就一半一半

Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously.

取態唔同係我哋需要認真看待嘅嘢

But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something

但更重要既係

公投話咗畀我哋聽今日嘅政治形勢

about the nature of politics today.

Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.

當代政治唔再只係左翼同右翼

It's no longer just about tax and spend.

唔再只係交稅同開支

It's about globalization.

當代政治係講緊全球化

The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization

當代政治嘅分裂在於

鍾意同害怕全球化之間

and those that fear globalization.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

If we look at why those who wanted to leave --

如果我哋睇下想脫歐嘅人

we call them "Leavers," as opposed to "Remainers" --

我哋叫佢哋做脫歐陣營 相反嘅係留歐陣營

we see two factors in the opinion polls

我哋見到民意調查裏面 兩個好重要嘅因素

that really mattered.

The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty,

第一係移民，其次係國家主權

and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives

呢兩樣都代表咗

啲人想爭取返佢哋生活嘅自主權

and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians.

代表佢哋覺得

參政嘅人唔代表佢哋

But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation.

但呢啲脫歐諗法意味住恐懼同孤立

They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders

代表倒退到民族主義同邊界管制嘅年代

in ways that many of us would reject.

而我哋好多人都接受唔到

What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that,

我想講成件事嘅更加複雜

that liberal internationalists,

自由國際主義者，好似我咁

like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture,

需要將自己擺埋落成件事裏面

need to write ourselves back into the picture

in order to understand how we've got to where we are today.

至可以明白

我哋點樣走到今時今日嘅地步

When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom,

我哋睇返投票分佈

we can visibly see the divisions.

我哋見到分裂

The blue areas show Remain

藍色係留歐

and the red areas Leave.

紅色係脫歐

When I looked at this,

當我睇到呢幅圖

what personally struck me was the very little time in my life

我覺得好震撼嘅係

我人生冇幾多時間喺紅色嘅地方生活

I've actually spent in many of the red areas.

I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK

望住頭五十個最想脫歐嘅地方

that have the strongest Leave vote,

我突然意識到

I've spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas.

我只係花咗四日喺呢啲哋方生活

In some of those places,

呢五十個地方當中

I didn't even know the names of the voting districts.

我甚至唔知道一啲選區嘅名

It was a real shock to me,

我對呢樣嘢好驚訝

and it suggested that people like me

呢樣嘢亦都反映

who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant,

好似我以為自己包容、開放、忍耐嘅人

perhaps don't know our own countries and societies

或者對於我哋嘅國家同社會

nearly as well as we like to believe.

同自己願意去相信嘅事物一樣咁唔清楚

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way

而伴隨著嘅挑戰係我哋要搵新方法

to narrate globalization to those people,

向支持脫歐嘅人解釋全球化

to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university,

同埋要明白呢啲人未必讀過大學

who haven't necessarily grown up with the Internet,

互聯網未必陪伴佢哋成長

that don't get opportunities to travel,

佢哋未必去過旅行

they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive

佢哋可能未被我哋自由社會裏面

覺得有說服嘅嘢說服

in our often liberal bubbles.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand.

即係話我哋要接觸同埋理解更多

In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred,

喺呢次公投裏面

小數人激起政治恐懼同憎恨

creating lies and mistrust

導致謊言同唔信任四起

around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe

例如，留歐其實可以減少

could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,

嚟歐洲嘅難民同申請庇護嘅人數

when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration

但脫歐就一啲都做唔到

from outside the European Union.

But for a significant majority of the Leave voters

大多數脫歐支持者嘅憂慮

the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment.

係對政治體制嘅幻滅

This was a protest vote for many,

呢場公投其實係一場抗議

a sense that nobody represented them,

抗議政制裏面無人代表到佢哋

that they couldn't find a political party that spoke for them,

佢哋搵唔到為佢哋發聲嘅政黨

and so they rejected that political establishment.

於是佢哋唔要宜家嘅政治體制

This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world.

呢種不滿政制嘅情況喺歐洲

同好多自由民主嘅國家重覆出現

We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States,

同時，我哋見到特朗普喺美國冒起

with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,

匈牙利總理奧班嘅民族主義喺當地冒起

with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France.

馬琳 · 勒龐喺法國嘅愈嚟愈受歡迎

The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.

成個社會裏面都有支持英國脫歐嘅人

So the question I think we need to ask is my second question,

咁我哋就要問第二個問題

which is how should we collectively respond?

我哋要點樣一齊應對？

For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies,

對於我哋關心營造

自由、開放、寛容社會嘅人嚟講

we urgently need a new vision,

我哋急需要新願景

a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization,

營造更包容同更寛容嘅全球化

one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.

令我哋走埋一齊，而唔係拋低邊個

That vision of globalization

而當呢個全球化願景開始嘅時候

is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization.

我哋需要認識全球化嘅好處

The consensus amongst economists

經濟學家都有共識

is that free trade, the movement of capital,

全球化有利自由貿易、資金同人嘅流動

the movement of people across borders

benefit everyone on aggregate.

有利所有走埋一齊嘅人

The consensus amongst international relations scholars

至於國際關係學者都同意

is that globalization brings interdependence,

全球化令國與國更加倚靠對方

which brings cooperation and peace.

促成合作同和平

But globalization also has redistributive effects.

但全球化有重新分配嘅效果

It creates winners and losers.

佢創造贏家同輸家

To take the example of migration,

用移民做例子

we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole

我哋知道移民喺大多數情況下

under almost all circumstances.

對經濟都係正面嘅

But we also have to be very aware

但我哋亦都要好小心

that there are redistributive consequences,

全球化帶嚟重新分配嘅結果

that importantly, low-skilled immigration

尤其低技術移民

can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies

可以令社會最貧困嘅一群工資下降

and also put pressure on house prices.

而且低技術移民會推高物業價格

That doesn't detract from the fact that it's positive,

但以上都削弱唔到全球化嘅正面影響

but it means more people have to share in those benefits

全球化只會令更多人受到正面影響

and recognize them.

In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,

2002 年，前聯合國秘書長安南

gave a speech at Yale University,

喺耶魯大學發表演講

and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization.

演講圍繞包容性全球化

That was the speech in which he coined that term.

佢喺演講裏面創造咗 「包容性全球化」呢個詞

And he said, and I paraphrase,

我轉述返佢講嘅嘢︰

"The glass house of globalization has to be open to all

「全球化如果要保持穩當嘅話

if it is to remain secure.

佢嘅大門就要向所有人打開

Bigotry and ignorance

偏執同無知係排外同對抗全球化」

are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization."

That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008

2008 年，好多歐洲國家領袖參與

一個有關漸進式管治嘅會議

in a conference on progressive governance

包容性全球化嘅概念再次被提出

involving many of the leaders of European countries.

But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008,

但 2008 年金融海嘯

同實行緊縮措施嗰陣

the concept disappeared almost without a trace.

呢個概念消失得無影無蹤

Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda.

全球化一直用喺新自由綱領裏面

It's perceived to be part of an elite agenda

全球化被認為係精英人士嘅綱領

rather than something that benefits all.

多過係有利各方嘅事物

And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis

明日嘅全球化應該要比今日更加包容

than it is today.

So the question is, how can we achieve that goal?

咁問題係，我哋點樣做到呢？

How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation

我哋點樣顧及恐懼、孤立嘅情緒

while on the other hand refusing vehemently

而拒絕仇外、民族主義呢？

to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?

That is the question for all of us.

呢條問題係畀我哋所有人

And I think, as a social scientist,

作為社會科學家

that social science offers some places to start.

我覺得社會科學係解決問題嘅好開始

Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change,

我哋需要係意念上同物質上轉變

and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.

我想講四個諗法作為你哋嘅開始

The first relates to the idea of civic education.

第一係同公民教育有關

What stands out from Brexit

英國脫歐最突出嘅係

is the gap between public perception and empirical reality.

公眾認知同現實差距

It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society,

有人話我哋社會變成唔講事實

where evidence and truth no longer matter,

證據同真相唔再重要

and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence.

反而大話同證據有同等地位

So how can we --

咁我哋點…

(Applause)

（掌聲）

How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies?

喺呢個自由民主嘅社會裏面

我哋點重新尊重真相同證據？

It has to begin with education,

咁就要由教育著手

but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.

但要由認識巨大嘅差距開始

In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI

2014 年，民意調查機構 Ipsos MORI

published a survey on attitudes to immigration,

公佈一個英國人對於移民嘅態度調查

and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase,

調查顯示移民嚟英國嘅人愈多

so public concern with immigration also increases,

公眾愈關注移民嘅情況

although it obviously didn't unpack causality,

雖然調查明顯無解構其中嘅因果關係

because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers

因為可能唔太關數字事

but the political and media narrative around it.

但政治同傳媒方面就覺得兩者有關係

But the same survey also revealed

但同一個調查發現

huge public misinformation

公眾對於移民有好大嘅誤解

and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration.

For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom,

例如，英國公眾相信

the public believed that levels of asylum

難民佔移民嘅比例比實際高

were a greater proportion of immigration than they were,

but they also believed the levels of educational migration

但佢哋同時相信

受教育嘅移民嘅比例遠低於實際

were far lower as a proportion of overall migration

than they actually are.

So we have to address this misinformation,

我哋要重視呢個觀感同現實嘅落差

the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization.

呢個係全球化重要嘅方面

And that can't just be something that's left to our schools,

但呢樣嘢唔可以剩係由學校做

although that's important to begin at an early age.

雖然由細個開始著手係重要嘅

It has to be about lifelong civic participation

處理落差需要花成世時間做公民參與

and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.

而呢樣正係社會所期望嘅

The second thing that I think is an opportunity

第二樣我覺得同時係機遇嘅係

is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.

我哋可以鼓勵呢個分裂嘅社群 有更多交流

(Applause)

（掌聲）

One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly,

當我睇返英國人對於移民態度嘅時候

looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom,

其中一樣非常引起我注意

is that ironically, the regions of my country

好諷刺地

最包融移民嘅地方有最多移民

that are the most tolerant of immigrants

have the highest numbers of immigrants.

So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants,

例如倫敦同東南部有最多移民

and they are also by far the most tolerant areas.

而呢兩個地方都係最接納到移民

It's those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration

至於，有最少移民嘅地方

that actually are the most exclusionary and intolerant towards migrants.

就最排斥同最唔能夠包融移民

So we need to encourage exchange programs.

所以我哋要鼓勵交流計劃嘅出現

We need to ensure that older generations who maybe can't travel

我哋要令未必能夠旅行嘅

上一代可以上到網

get access to the Internet.

We need to encourage, even on a local and national level,

係本地或者國家層面

more movement, more participation,

我哋都要鼓勵更多嘅流動、參與

more interaction with people who we don't know

鼓勵同唔識嘅人

同睇法不完全一樣嘅人

and whose views we might not necessarily agree with.

有更多嘅交流

The third thing that I think is crucial, though,

第三我覺得關鍵而又好基本嘅係

and this is really fundamental,

is we have to ensure that everybody shares

我哋要確保每個人

都可以享受到全球化嘅成果

in the benefits of globalization.

This illustration from the Financial Times post-Brexit is really striking.

呢幅圖由金融時報做

係有關後脫歐時代，好震撼

It shows tragically that those people who voted to leave the European Union

幅圖顯示想脫歐嘅人其實係

were those who actually benefited the most materially

最受惠於歐盟貿易嘅物質成果

from trade with the European Union.

But the problem is that those people in those areas

但問題係

嗰啲喺想脫歐嘅地方嘅人

didn't perceive themselves to be beneficiaries.

唔覺得佢哋係受惠於歐盟嘅一群

They didn't believe that they were actually getting access

佢哋唔信佢哋受惠緊

to material benefits of increased trade and increased mobility around the world.

世界貿易同流動上升

所帶嚟嘅物質成果

I work on questions predominantly to do with refugees,

我主要鑽研難民問題

and one of the ideas I spent a lot of my time preaching,

而我其中一個針對發展中國家

mainly to developing countries around the world,

花咗好多時間宣揚嘅諗法

is that in order to encourage the integration of refugees,

係若然要鼓勵難民融合

we can't just benefit the refugee populations,

我哋唔可以剩係令難民受惠

we also have to address the concerns of the host communities in local areas.

我哋亦要顧及本土社區嘅憂慮

But in looking at that,

但睇返其中一項政策

one of the policy prescriptions is that we have to provide

我哋要喺有大量移民嘅地區

disproportionately better education facilities, health facilities,

提供唔合比例地好嘅

access to social services

教育設施、醫療設施、社會服務

in those regions of high immigration

to address the concerns of those local populations.

以回應當地居民嘅憂慮

But while we encourage that around the developing world,

但當我哋喺發展中國家行呢套嘅同時

we don't take those lessons home

我哋冇將呢套帶返嚟我哋自己國家

and incorporate them in our own societies.

用喺我哋自己社會入面

Furthermore, if we're going to really take seriously

再講，如果我哋真係要

the need to ensure people share in the economic benefits,

確保人人都可以享受經濟成果

our businesses and corporations need a model of globalization

公司同企業就要一個全球化嘅示範

that recognizes that they, too, have to take people with them.

令佢哋明白佢哋都要對人有所承擔

The fourth and final idea I want to put forward

第四個，亦係最後一個就係

is an idea that we need more responsible politics.

我哋需要更負責任嘅政治

There's very little social science evidence

但我哋得好少社會科學嘅證據

that compares attitudes on globalization.

比較啲人對全球化嘅態度

But from the surveys that do exist,

但睇返現有嘅調查

what we can see is there's huge variation across different countries

我哋可以睇到

國家之間

就算同一個國家喺唔同嘅時間

and time periods in those countries

對於移民、人口流動 自由貿易嘅態度同承受能力

for attitudes and tolerance

of questions like migration and mobility on the one hand

and free trade on the other.

都有好大差別

But one hypothesis that I think emerges from a cursory look at that data

但從呢啲數據得出一個假設係

is the idea that polarized societies are far less tolerant of globalization.

兩極化社會更加接受唔到全球化

It's the societies like Sweden in the past,

好似以前嘅瑞典同宜家嘅加拿大咁

like Canada today,

where there is a centrist politics,

都有中間路線嘅政治

where right and left work together,

左翼同右翼合作

that we encourage supportive attitudes towards globalization.

鼓勵支持全球化

And what we see around the world today is a tragic polarization,

但我哋今時今日見到嘅兩極化係悲慘嘅

a failure to have dialogue between the extremes in politics,

政治極端兩邊嘅人冇辦法對話

and a gap in terms of that liberal center ground

兩班人都失去咗中間自由嘅光譜

that can encourage communication and a shared understanding.

而呢個中間地帶

卻可以鼓勵兩邊溝通同體諒對方

We might not achieve that today,

我哋未必今日做到

but at the very least we have to call upon our politicians and our media

但至少我哋要呼籲政客同傳媒

to drop a language of fear and be far more tolerant of one another.

用詞唔好再係表達恐懼

而係更包容呢兩個極端

(Applause)

（掌聲）

These ideas are very tentative,

呢啲諗法都係初步

and that's in part because this needs to be an inclusive and shared project.

咁係因為解決方案需要多方意見

I am still British.

我仲係英國人

I am still European.

我仲係歐洲人

I am still a global citizen.

我仲係世界公民

For those of us who believe

相信我哋身份並唔係互相排斥嘅我哋

that our identities are not mutually exclusive,

we have to all work together

我哋要走埋一齊

to ensure that globalization takes everyone with us

確保全球化唔會抌低我哋任何一個

and doesn't leave people behind.

Only then will we truly reconcile democracy and globalization.

只有嗰陣

我哋先真正將民主同全球化調和

Thank you.

多謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）