The surprising way groups like ISIS stay in power | Benedetta Berti

翻译人员: Bangyou Xiang 校对人员: Wei Wu

For the past decade,

在过去的十年里，

I've been studying non-state armed groups:

我一直在研究非政府武装集团：

armed organizations like terrorists, insurgents or militias.

像恐怖分子、造反派或民兵等武装组织。

I document what these groups do when they're not shooting.

我记录他们在非战斗状态下都做些什么。

My goal is to better understand these violent actors

我的目标是更好地了解这些暴力分子

and to study ways to encourage transition from violent engagement

并研究促进从暴力途径到非暴力对抗的

to nonviolent confrontation.

过渡方式。

I work in the field, in the policy world and in the library.

我做过实地考察, 研究过政策层面, 在图书馆翻阅过资料.

Understanding non-state armed groups is key to solving most ongoing conflict,

理解非政府武装组织是解决当今大多数冲突的关键，

because war has changed.

因为战争形态已经跟以前不一样了。

It used to be a contest between states.

它曾经是国家间的竞赛，

No longer.

但现在不是了。

It is now a conflict between states and non-state actors.

现在它是政府与非政府组织间的冲突。

For example, of the 216 peace agreements

例如，在1975年到2011间签署的216项

signed between 1975 and 2011,

和平协议中，

196 of them were between a state and a non-state actor.

其中196项是政府与非政府组织之间签订的。

So we need to understand these groups; we need to either engage them

因此我们需要了解这些集团；我们需要要么参与他们

or defeat them in any conflict resolution process that has to be successful.

要么在任何非成功不可的冲突解决过程中打败他们。

So how do we do that?

那么我们怎么做？

We need to know what makes these organizations tick.

我们要知道是什么让这些组织采取武装行动

We know a lot about how they fight, why they fight,

关于他们如何战斗、为何战斗我们了解很多，

but no one looks at what they're doing when they're not fighting.

但是没人关注当他们不战斗时都在干什么。

Yet, armed struggle and unarmed politics are related.

然而，武装斗争与非武装政治是相关联的。

It is all part of the same organization.

它们都是相同组织的一部分。

We cannot understand these groups, let alone defeat them,

我们甚至不能理解这些集团，遑论打败他们，

if we don't have the full picture.

如果我们不能了解全貌的话。

And armed groups today are complex organizations.

当今的武装集团是复杂的组织。

Take the Lebanese Hezbollah,

以黎巴嫩真主党为例，

known for its violent confrontation against Israel.

它因暴力对抗以色列而出名。

But since its creation in the early 1980s,

但自从上世纪80年代初创建以来，

Hezbollah has also set up a political party,

真主党也建立了政党，

a social-service network, and a military apparatus.

社会服务网络和军事机构。

Similarly, the Palestinian Hamas,

类似地，因其对抗以色列的自杀式袭击而出名的

known for its suicide attacks against Israel,

巴勒斯坦哈马斯，

also runs the Gaza Strip since 2007.

自从2007年来也控制加沙走廊。

So these groups do way more than just shoot.

因而这些集团所做的不仅仅是战斗。

They multi-task.

他们进行多项任务。

They set up complex communication machines --

他们建立复杂的宣传系统——

radio stations, TV channels,

包括无线电台、电视频道、

Internet websites and social media strategies.

网站和社交媒体宣传。

And up here, you have the ISIS magazine,

这里还有伊斯兰国杂志，

printed in English and published to recruit.

用英文打印，发表文章来招募新兵。

Armed groups also invest in complex fund-raising --

武装组织也投资复杂的基金筹备工作——

not looting, but setting up profitable businesses;

不是通过掠夺的方式，而是通过建立可盈利的公司；

for example, construction companies.

例如建筑公司。

Now, these activities are keys.

现在，这些活动是关键。

They allow these groups to increase their strength,

它们使得这些集团能够增强自己的力量，

increase their funds,

增加基金，

to better recruit and to build their brand.

更好地招募，建立自己的品牌。

Armed groups also do something else:

武装组织也做其他的一些事情：

they build stronger bonds with the population

它们通过投资社会服务

by investing in social services.

与大众建立更牢固的联系。

They build schools, they run hospitals,

他们建立学校，他们经营医院，

they set up vocational-training programs or micro-loan programs.

他们建立职业培训项目或小额贷款项目。

Hezbollah offers all of these services and more.

真主党提供所有这些服务，并且不止这些。

Armed groups also seek to win the population over

武装组织也寻求通过提供政府未提供的东西

by offering something that the state is not providing:

来赢得大众的支持：

safety and security.

安全和稳定。

The initial rise of the Taliban in war-torn Afghanistan,

塔利班在战乱重创的阿富汗的崛起，

or even the beginning of the ascent of ISIS,

或者甚至是伊斯兰国的崛起，

can be understood also by looking at these groups' efforts

可以通过看这些团体提供安保的努力

to provide security.

来理解。

Now, unfortunately, in these cases,

现在，不幸的是，在这些案例中，

the provision of security came at an unbearably high price

提供安保对大众来说是个

for the population.

难以承受的高代价。

But in general, providing social services fills a gap,

但是通常情况下，提供社会服务填充了一个缺口，

a governance gap left by the government,

由政府留下的管理缺口，

and allows these groups to increase their strength

使得这些集团能够增强自身实力

and their power.

和权利。

For example, the 2006 electoral victory of the Palestinian Hamas

例如，要理解2006年巴勒斯坦哈马斯的选举胜利

cannot be understood without acknowledging the group's social work.

就不能不承认集团的社会工作扮演的重要角色。

Now, this is a really complex picture,

现在，情况变得复杂起来，

yet in the West, when we look at armed groups,

然而在西方，当我们提起武装集团，

we only think of the violent side.

我们仅仅想到它暴力的一面。

But that's not enough to understand these groups' strength,

但这不足以理解这些集团的力量，

strategy or long-term vision.

策略或长远目标。

These groups are hybrid.

这些集团是混合体。

They rise because they fill a gap left by the government,

他们的崛起是因为他们填补了政府留下的空白，

and they emerge to be both armed and political,

他们以武装与政治集团的身份出现，

engage in violent struggle and provide governance.

参与暴力斗争、提供管理。

And the more these organizations are complex and sophisticated,

这些组织越复杂、精密，

the less we can think of them as the opposite of a state.

他们越不会将自身视为国家的对立面。

Now, what do you call a group like Hezbollah?

现在，你怎么称呼想真主党这样的集团？

They run part of a territory, they administer all their functions,

他们管理部分领土，有政府所有的功能，

they pick up the garbage, they run the sewage system.

他们回收垃圾，他们维护排水系统。

Is this a state? Is it a rebel group?

这是政府吗？这是叛乱集团吗？

Or maybe something else, something different and new?

或是其他一些东西，一些不同的新东西？

And what about ISIS?

那么伊斯兰国呢？

The lines are blurred.

界限模糊了。

We live in a world of states, non-states, and in-between,

我们生活在政府、非政府以及二者之间，

and the more states are weak, like in the Middle East today,

政府越无力，像今天的中东那样，

the more non-state actors step in and fill that gap.

非政府武装组织就会更多地介入，填补那个空白。

This matters for governments, because to counter these groups,

这对政府来说很重要，因为为了对抗这些集团，

they will have to invest more in non-military tools.

他们将不得不在非军事领域投入更多。

Filling that governance gap

填补这项政府空白，

has to be at the center of any sustainable approach.

必须居于任何可持续方式的中心。

This also matters very much for peacemaking and peacebuilding.

这对于调解和创建和平也很重要。

If we better understand armed groups,

如果我们更好地理解武装集团，

we will better know what incentives to offer

我们将更好地了解该采取何种途径来

to encourage the transition from violence to nonviolence.

实现从暴力到非暴力形式的过渡。

So in this new contest between states and non-states,

因此在这项政府与非政府间的竞赛中，

military power can win some battles,

军事力量可以赢得一些战斗，

but it will not give us peace nor stability.

但是它不会给我们带来和平与稳定。

To achieve these objectives,

为了实现这些目标，

what we need is a long-term investment in filling that security gap,

我们需要的是填补这项安保空白

in filling that governance gap

填补上政府管理的缺位

that allowed these groups to thrive in the first place.

这才是阻止非政府武装组织繁荣的关键.

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）