What I learned from 2,000 obituaries | Lux Narayan

翻译人员: 凯悦 张 校对人员: Hancheng Li

Joseph Keller used to jog around the Stanford campus,

约瑟夫·凯勒以前常绕着 斯坦福大学校区慢跑，

and he was struck by all the women jogging there as well.

而他对许多同样在慢跑的女性 感到很震惊。

Why did their ponytails swing from side to side like that?

为什么她们的马尾辫 会那样左右扫来扫去呢？

Being a mathematician, he set out to understand why.

作为一名数学家，他开始探究原因。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Professor Keller was curious about many things:

凯勒教授对许多东西都很好奇：

why teapots dribble

为什么茶壶上会沾水，

or how earthworms wriggle.

还有蚯蚓是如何蠕动的。

Until a few months ago, I hadn't heard of Joseph Keller.

在几个月前， 我还从未听说过约瑟夫·凯勒。

I read about him in the New York Times,

我在《纽约时报》上读到了他，

in the obituaries.

出现在讣告中。

The Times had half a page of editorial dedicated to him,

《纽约时报》专门用了 半幅版面来讲述他，

which you can imagine is premium space for a newspaper of their stature.

这也算是这种影响力的报刊里 级别最高的版面了。

I read the obituaries almost every day.

我几乎每天都会看讣告。

My wife understandably thinks I'm rather morbid

可以理解的是， 我妻子觉得我相当有病，

to begin my day with scrambled eggs and a "Let's see who died today."

我的每一天从一盘炒鸡蛋开始， 再加一句：“看看今天谁死了。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But if you think about it,

不过仔细想想，

the front page of the newspaper is usually bad news,

报纸的头版通常刊登的 都是负面新闻，

and cues man's failures.

暗示着人类的失败。

An instance where bad news cues accomplishment

如果你想在负面新闻中 找到一些好的成就，

is at the end of the paper, in the obituaries.

就得去末版的讣告里找了。

In my day job,

在日常工作时，

I run a company that focuses on future insights

我经营一家公司， 致力于提供对未来的预测，

that marketers can derive from past data --

是从过去的企业数据中分析得出的，

a kind of rearview-mirror analysis.

算是一种后知后觉的分析。

And we began to think:

然后我们开始思考：

What if we held a rearview mirror to obituaries from the New York Times?

要是我们用后知后觉方式 来分析《纽约时报》上的讣告呢？

Were there lessons on how you could get your obituary featured --

你未来的讣告会怎么写， 它能教会你什么？

even if you aren't around to enjoy it?

虽然你本人已经没法活着拜读了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Would this go better with scrambled eggs?

这样的讣告是不是和炒鸡蛋更配呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And so, we looked at the data.

于是，我们研究了数据。

2,000 editorial, non-paid obituaries

2000份由报社编辑的无偿的讣告，

over a 20-month period between 2015 and 2016.

来自2015和2016年里的20个月。

What did these 2,000 deaths -- rather, lives -- teach us?

这2000例死亡，或是说2000条生命， 能教给我们什么呢？

Well, first we looked at words.

首先我们研究了用语。

This here is an obituary headline.

这是一个讣告的标题。

This one is of the amazing Lee Kuan Yew.

为了了不起的李光耀先生而写。

If you remove the beginning and the end,

如果去掉开头结尾，

you're left with a beautifully worded descriptor

你会看到一段文字优美、 描述准确的叙述辞，

that tries to, in just a few words, capture an achievement or a lifetime.

它尝试用寥寥数语精确描述 个人成就或是一生经历。

Just looking at these is fascinating.

仅仅是读这些就已经很令人着迷了。

Here are a few famous ones, people who died in the last two years.

这有一些人物描述， 是关于最近两年去世的名人。

Try and guess who they are.

尝试猜猜他们是谁。

[An Artist who Defied Genre]

颠覆流派传统的艺术家

That's Prince.

这是美国歌手“王子”。

[Titan of Boxing and the 20th Century]

二十世纪的拳击巨人

没错。

Oh, yes.

[Muhammad Ali]

拳王阿里

[Groundbreaking Architect]

开创性的建筑师

Zaha Hadid.

扎哈·哈迪德。

So we took these descriptors

然后我们对这些叙述辞

and did what's called natural language processing,

做了一种叫做自然语言处理的操作，

where you feed these into a program,

其实就是把文字放进一个程序里，

it throws out the superfluous words --

它会筛去多余的字词，

"the," "and," -- the kind of words you can mime easily in "Charades," --

例如“这”、“和”， 这种很容易能比划明白的字，

and leaves you with the most significant words.

只把最重要的词语留下。

And we did it not just for these four,

我们不止对上述4个标题做了处理，

but for all 2,000 descriptors.

而是整整2000份叙述辞。

And this is what it looks like.

呈现的结果如下。

Film, theatre, music, dance and of course, art, are huge.

电影，戏剧，音乐，舞蹈…… 当然，还有艺术占比很大。

Over 40 percent.

超过四成了。

You have to wonder why in so many societies

你必须要细想看看， 为何在许多社会中，

we insist that our kids pursue engineering or medicine or business or law

我们会坚持让我们的孩子从事 工程、医药、商业、法律等工作，

to be construed as successful.

并认定它们代表着成功。

And while we're talking profession,

既然我们谈到了职业，

let's look at age --

让我们再看看年龄。

the average age at which they achieved things.

他们获得成就的平均年龄。

That number is 37.

这个数字是37岁。

What that means is, you've got to wait 37 years ...

这说明你必须要等上37年，

before your first significant achievement that you're remembered for --

才能首次获得足以让你留名的成就，

on average --

这是平均值。

44 years later, when you die at the age of 81 --

44年后，在你81岁去世时才会留名，

on average.

这也是平均值。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Talk about having to be patient.

这说明我们要有耐心。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Of course, it varies by profession.

当然这也因职业而异。

If you're a sports star,

如果你是运动明星，

you'll probably hit your stride in your 20s.

你多半会在20多岁时进入巅峰。

And if you're in your 40s like me,

如果你像我一样是个40来岁的人，

you can join the fun world of politics.

你大概还能在政界搞出点名堂。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Politicians do their first and sometimes only commendable act in their mid-40s.

政客在45岁左右才做出人生首件， 也许是唯一值得称道的事迹。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

If you're wondering what "others" are,

也许你会好奇"其他"是什么，

here are some examples.

这里有些例子。

Isn't it fascinating, the things people do

这些不是很有趣吗？

人们所做的事情，为人所铭记的事情？

and the things they're remembered for?

(Laughter)

麦克斯·波伏娃：放弃科学成为邪教主教

乔治·德·派尔斯：9位总统的裁缝 卡罗·多达：裸胸娱乐的先驱

Our curiosity was in overdrive,

我们的好奇心彻底控制不住了，

and we desired to analyze more than just a descriptor.

我们不满足于仅仅分析叙述辞。

So, we ingested the entire first paragraph of all 2,000 obituaries,

所以我们又分析了 2000份讣告的第一段，

but we did this separately for two groups of people:

但我们把讣告分为两组来分析：

people that are famous and people that are not famous.

一组是名人，一组是不出名的人。

Famous people -- Prince, Ali, Zaha Hadid --

名人，例如“王子”、阿里、扎哈·哈迪德，

people who are not famous are people like Jocelyn Cooper,

不出名的人，例如乔斯琳·库伯，

Reverend Curry

加里牧师，

or Lorna Kelly.

罗娜·凯利等等。

I'm willing to bet you haven't heard of most of their names.

我敢说大多数名字你都没有听过。

Amazing people, fantastic achievements, but they're not famous.

他们是杰出的人，有着杰出的成就， 但并不出名。

So what if we analyze these two groups separately --

所以，如果我们分别分析这两组，

the famous and the non-famous?

出不出名有什么区别？

What might that tell us?

它会告诉我们什么呢？

Take a look.

请看吧。

Two things leap out at me.

两样东西吸引了我的注意。

First:

第一：

"John."

“约翰”。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Anyone here named John should thank your parents --

所有名叫“约翰”的人要好好感谢父母。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

and remind your kids to cut out your obituary when you're gone.

还要提醒你的孩子 在你死后把你的讣告剪下来。

And second:

第二：

"help."

“帮助”。

We uncovered, many lessons from lives well-led,

我们从这些杰出的生命中，

and what those people immortalized in print could teach us.

从这些被文字记录的人身上 学到了好多东西。

The exercise was a fascinating testament to the kaleidoscope that is life,

这种过程是对生命万花筒的极好检验，

and even more fascinating

而更加迷人的是，

was the fact that the overwhelming majority of obituaries

在绝大多数的讣告中，

featured people famous and non-famous,

无论主角是否出名，

who did seemingly extraordinary things.

他们都做了看似不平凡的事。

They made a positive dent in the fabric of life.

他们在生命长河中留下了闪光的点滴。

They helped.

他们伸出了援手。

So ask yourselves as you go back to your daily lives:

所以在日常生活中请扪心自问：

How am I using my talents to help society?

我该如何用我的才能帮助这个社会？

Because the most powerful lesson here is,

因为这其中最重要的道理就是：

if more people lived their lives trying to be famous in death,

如果有更多的人在活着时 多想想如何留下身后名，

the world would be a much better place.

这个世界将会更加美好。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）