Why our IQ levels are higher than our grandparents' | James Flynn

翻译人员: Sophia Liu 校对人员: lin piao

We are going to take a quick voyage

让我们一起浏览一下

over the cognitive history of the 20th century,

20 世纪的认知历史吧。

because during that century,

因为在这个世纪里，

our minds have altered dramatically.

我们的思想发生了极大的改变。

As you all know, the cars that people drove in 1900

大家都知道，1900 年人们所驾驶的汽车已经因为

have altered because the roads are better

道路状况的改善和

and because of technology.

科技的进步而彻底改变了。

And our minds have altered, too.

我们的思想也改变了。

We've gone from people who confronted a concrete world

我们已经从面对具象的世界

and analyzed that world primarily in terms

来分析如何

of how much it would benefit them

从中受益的人，

to people who confront a very complex world,

变成面对非常复杂的世界的人。

and it's a world where we've had to develop

这个世界让我们需要有

new mental habits, new habits of mind.

新的心理习惯、 新的思维习惯。

And these include things like

其中包括

clothing that concrete world with classification,

面对这个具象我们需要分类

introducing abstractions that we try to make

需要抽象分析以保持

logically consistent,

逻辑上的一致。

and also taking the hypothetical seriously,

我们也需要做假设分析。

that is, wondering about what might have been

就是说，我们想知道这世界的演变过程，

rather than what is.

而不仅仅是知道这世界现在是怎么样。

Now, this dramatic change was drawn to my attention

这一重大变化引起了我的注意。

through massive I.Q. gains over time,

人们的智商随时间的推移而不断增高，

and these have been truly massive.

这种改变可以说是个剧变。

That is, we don't just get a few more questions right

就是说，我们不是只答对几个

on I.Q. tests.

智商测试题。

We get far more questions right on I.Q. tests

我们答对的智商测试题比

than each succeeding generation

我们之前的每一代答对得都多得多，

back to the time that they were invented.

甚至是追溯回智商测试刚发明的时代。

Indeed, if you score the people a century ago

事实上，如果你按照现代标准给

against modern norms,

一个世纪前的人们的智商打分，

they would have an average I.Q. of 70.

他们的平均智商只能达到70分。

If you score us against their norms,

如果你按照他们那个时代的标准给我们打分，

we would have an average I.Q. of 130.

我们的平均智商会达到130分。

Now this has raised all sorts of questions.

当然这就会有很多问题出来了。

Were our immediate ancestors

我们的祖先是不是

on the verge of mental retardation?

到了智力障碍的边缘？

Because 70 is normally the score for mental retardation.

因为 70 分通常是智障的分数。

Or are we on the verge of all being gifted?

还有，我们现代人算不算是天才呀?

Because 130 is the cutting line for giftedness.

因为130分是天才的分割线。

Now I'm going to try and argue for a third alternative

现在我给你们讲讲第三种可能性。

that's much more illuminating than either of those,

这种可能性比前面的两个提问会更有启发性。

and to put this into perspective,

让我们换个角度，

let's imagine that a Martian came down to Earth

想象一个火星人来到地球

and found a ruined civilization.

并发现了一个被破坏的文明。

And this Martian was an archaeologist,

恰好这个火星人是一个考古学家，

and they found scores, target scores,

他们发现了一些靶环，

that people had used for shooting.

人们这个来计算射击分数。

And first they looked at 1865,

首先他们看到的是1865 年的，

and they found that in a minute,

他们发现，在一分钟内，

people had only put one bullet in the bullseye.

只有一颗子弹被射中了靶心。

And then they found, in 1898,

然后他们发现，在 1898 年，

that they'd put about five bullets in the bullseye in a minute.

一分钟约有五发子弹被射中靶心。

And then about 1918 they put a hundred bullets in the bullseye.

到了1918年的时候，就有100 颗子弹射中靶心了。

And initially, that archaeologist would be baffled.

最初，那（火星）考古学家会困惑。

They would say, look, these tests were designed

他们会说，你看，这些测试旨在

to find out how much people were steady of hand,

测试人们的手法如何稳健，

how keen their eyesight was,

视力是如何敏锐，

whether they had control of their weapon.

以及是否有对武器的控制力的。

How could these performances have escalated

这些射击成绩怎么会提升得

to this enormous degree?

如此迅速？

Well we now know, of course, the answer.

我们现在当然知道答案。

If that Martian looked at battlefields,

而如果那火星人去看看战场，

they would find that people had only muskets

他们会找到在内战期间

at the time of the Civil War

只带着步枪的战士；

and that they had repeating rifles

在美西战争期间

at the time of the Spanish-American War,

用连发猎枪的战士；

and then they had machine guns

还有在一次世界大战期间

by the time of World War I.

用机关枪的战士。

And, in other words, it was the equipment

换句话说，是

that was in the hands of the average soldier

普通士兵手中的武器装备不同了，

that was responsible, not greater keenness of eye

而不是视力够不够敏锐，

or steadiness of hand.

或者手法够不够稳健。

Now what we have to imagine is the mental artillery

现在我们应该理解

that we have picked up over those hundred years,

这几百年来的心智上的飞跃。

and I think again that another thinker will help us here,

另一位思想家将帮助我们理解这一问题，

and that's Luria.

他叫罗瑞亚。

Luria looked at people

罗瑞亚早在进入科学时代之前

just before they entered the scientific age,

就开始观察

and he found that these people

并发现人们往往

were resistant to classifying the concrete world.

拒绝对具象世界进行分类分析。

They wanted to break it up

他们想把这世界细分

into little bits that they could use.

成他们可以从中受益的不同类别。

He found that they were resistant

他发现人们拒绝

to deducing the hypothetical,

去推导假说，

to speculating about what might be,

去猜测可能性。

and he found finally that they didn't deal well

他发现人们不擅于

with abstractions or using logic on those abstractions.

抽象分析或逻辑思考。

Now let me give you a sample of some of his interviews.

现在我给你们讲讲他的一些调研。

He talked to the head man of a person

他采访了俄罗斯农村的

in rural Russia.

一位首领。

They'd only had, as people had in 1900,

在1900 年，人们

about four years of schooling.

大约受四年的学校教育。

And he asked that particular person,

他问那位首领，

what do crows and fish have in common?

乌鸦和鱼有什么共同点？

And the fellow said, "Absolutely nothing.

那人说："绝对没有。

You know, I can eat a fish. I can't eat a crow.

你当然知道，我可以吃一条鱼，但我不能吃一只乌鸦。

A crow can peck at a fish.

一只乌鸦可以啄食一条鱼。

A fish can't do anything to a crow."

但一条鱼可对付不了乌鸦"。

And Luria said, "But aren't they both animals?"

罗瑞亚说，"但这两者不都是动物吗?"

And he said, "Of course not.

首领说，"当然不是。

One's a fish.

其中一个是鱼。

The other is a bird."

另外一个是鸟呀。

And he was interested, effectively,

这位首领真的对

in what he could do with those concrete objects.

怎么利用这些具体的事物感兴趣。

And then Luria went to another person,

罗瑞亚又去采访了另一个人。

and he said to them,

他对他们说，

"There are no camels in Germany.

"在德国没有骆驼。

Hamburg is a city in Germany.

汉堡是德国的一个城市。

Are there camels in Hamburg?"

那汉堡有骆驼吗?"

And the fellow said,

这个人回答道，

"Well, if it's large enough, there ought to be camels there."

"嗯，如果德国足够大的话，那里就应该有骆驼。"

And Luria said, "But what do my words imply?"

罗瑞亚说，"可是我问的是汉堡呀？"

And he said, "Well, maybe it's a small village,

那人回答说，"嗯，也许汉堡是一个小村庄，

and there's no room for camels."

没有足够的地方留给骆驼呢"。

In other words, he was unwilling to treat this

换句话说，他只愿意将这个问题

as anything but a concrete problem,

当成一个具体的问题来回答。

and he was used to camels being in villages,

他习惯于骆驼是豢养在村庄里的，

and he was quite unable to use the hypothetical,

他自己真的无法假设

to ask himself what if there were no camels in Germany.

德国真的就没有骆驼。

A third interview was conducted

第三次采访是

with someone about the North Pole.

有关北极的问题。

And Luria said, "At the North Pole, there is always snow.

罗瑞亚说，"北极呢，总是有雪的。

Wherever there is always snow, the bears are white.

只要哪里一直有雪，那儿的熊就是白色的。

What color are the bears at the North Pole?"

那么在北极的熊是什么颜色?"

And the response was, "Such a thing

被采访者的回答是，"这种事

is to be settled by testimony.

只能由证据来说话。

If a wise person came from the North Pole

如果一个智者从北极来

and told me the bears were white,

告诉我熊是白色的

I might believe him,

我可能会相信他。

but every bear that I have seen is a brown bear."

但我见过的每一只熊都是棕色的呀。”

Now you see again, this person has rejected

这回你又看到，这个人也拒绝

going beyond the concrete world

超越具象世界，

and analyzing it through everyday experience,

拒绝通过平常的经验来分析。

and it was important to that person

对那个人来说，重要的是

what color bears were --

熊是什么颜色 — —

that is, they had to hunt bears.

就是说，他们需要捕获这样的熊（来生存）。

They weren't willing to engage in this.

他们不愿意进一步分析。

One of them said to Luria,

其中一个人对罗瑞亚说：

"How can we solve things that aren't real problems?

"我们怎么能解决不是真问题的问题呢？

None of these problems are real.

所有这些问题都不是真正的问题呀。

How can we address them?"

我们怎么能知道呢?"

Now, these three categories --

现在，有三种分析方法— —

classification,

分类分析，

using logic on abstractions,

使用抽象逻辑，

taking the hypothetical seriously --

和认真假设 — —

how much difference do they make in the real world

这些分析方法对认识采访室以外的

beyond the testing room?

世界会有影响吗？

And let me give you a few illustrations.

让我给你几个例子。

First, almost all of us today get a high school diploma.

第一，今天在场的几乎所有人都有高中毕业文凭。

That is, we've gone from four to eight years of education

就是说，我们已经从4至8年的教育

to 12 years of formal education,

进步到 12 年的正规教育，

and 52 percent of Americans

52%的美国人

have actually experienced some type of tertiary education.

接受了专科以上的高等教育。

Now, not only do we have much more education,

现在，我们不仅接受更多的教育，

and much of that education is scientific,

而且接受更多科学知识的教育。

and you can't do science without classifying the world.

不会对世界进行分类分析就不能搞科研；

You can't do science without proposing hypotheses.

提不出假说也不能搞科研；

You can't do science without making it logically consistent.

没有逻辑上的一致性也没法搞科研。

And even down in grade school, things have changed.

甚至在小学阶段，分析问题的方法也已经发生了变化。

In 1910, they looked at the examinations

人们研究1910 年的

that the state of Ohio gave to 14-year-olds,

俄亥俄州针对 14 岁儿童的考题。

and they found that they were all

他们发现考题

for socially valued concrete information.

全部是针对具体事物的社会价值的。

They were things like,

考试的内容是这样的，

what are the capitals of the 44 or 45 states

当时的44 或 45 州的

that existed at that time?

首府是什么？

When they looked at the exams

而他们研究的

that the state of Ohio gave in 1990,

1990 年俄亥俄州的考题

they were all about abstractions.

则全部是些抽象问题。

They were things like,

比如说，

why is the largest city of a state rarely the capital?

为什么是一个州的最大城市往往不是首府？

And you were supposed to think, well,

你可能会想，嗯，

the state legislature was rural-controlled,

国家立法机关由农村控制的，

and they hated the big city,

他们不喜欢大城市

so rather than putting the capital in a big city,

所以比起在大城市建首府，

they put it in a county seat.

他们更愿意把它放在小镇。

They put it in Albany rather than New York.

他们把首府建在奥尔巴尼，而不是纽约。

They put it in Harrisburg rather than Philadelphia.

他们把首府建在哈里斯堡，而不是费城。

And so forth.

等等。

So the tenor of education has changed.

所以说，教育的进程已经改变。

We are educating people to take the hypothetical seriously,

我们正教育人们要认真地假设，

to use abstractions, and to link them logically.

要使用抽象思维，然后把它和逻辑思维结合起来。

What about employment?

那么就业情况呢？

Well, in 1900, three percent of Americans

在 1900 年，美国人中只有3%

practiced professions that were cognitively demanding.

是专业从业者。

Only three percent were lawyers or doctors or teachers.

只有3％的人是律师、医生和教师。

Today, 35 percent of Americans

而今天，35%的美国人

practice cognitively demanding professions,

是专业从业者。

not only to the professions proper like lawyer

不仅有像律师这样的专门职业，

or doctor or scientist or lecturer,

或者医生，科学家，讲师，

but many, many sub-professions

而且有很多很多细分的专业

having to do with being a technician,

需要技术员，

a computer programmer.

计算机程序员来做。

A whole range of professions now make cognitive demands.

一系列的专业产生了一系列的专业需求。

And we can only meet the terms of employment

在现代社会，我们只能满足某专业的就业条款，

in the modern world by being cognitively

而我们对知识的掌握

far more flexible.

却灵活机动得多。

And it's not just that we have many more people

这并不只是说我们有更多的人

in cognitively demanding professions.

从事有专业技能的职业。

The professions have been upgraded.

这些专业行业本身也已经升级换代。

Compare the doctor in 1900,

我们比较一下，1900 年

who really had only a few tricks up his sleeve,

只会几手的医生

with the modern general practitioner or specialist,

和现代社会的医生和医学专家。

with years of scientific training.

后者受过多年的科学培训。

Compare the banker in 1900,

再比较一下，1900 年

who really just needed a good accountant

只需要是一个好会计的银行家

and to know who was trustworthy in the local community

他们只需要知道当地社区谁是值得信赖的人

for paying back their mortgage.

然后帮他们抵押贷款。

Well, the merchant bankers who brought the world to their knees

那么现在呢，整个世界都得臣服于银行家的脚下。

may have been morally remiss,

他们在道义上可能有所欠缺，

but they were cognitively very agile.

可是他们的专业技能却异常地敏锐。

They went far beyond that 1900 banker.

现代银行家远远超出了1900年的银行家。

They had to look at computer projections

他们需要懂得房屋市场的

for the housing market.

计算机预算。

They had to get complicated CDO-squared

他们需要获得复杂的债务抵押债券

in order to bundle debt together

然后将所有的债务捆绑在一起

and make debt look as if it were actually a profitable asset.

让客户觉得债务是一项有利可图的投资。

They had to prepare a case to get rating agencies

他们需要向评级机构申请

to give it a AAA,

获得3A级信用度（企业信用的最高等级）。

though in many cases, they had virtually bribed the rating agencies.

虽然在很多情况下，他们大多贿赂评级机构。

And they also, of course, had to get people

当然，他们还要让客户

to accept these so-called assets

接受所谓的“资产”，

and pay money for them

为他们付钱，

even though they were highly vulnerable.

即使知道客户其实是蒙受很大损失的。

Or take a farmer today.

拿现在的农夫为例。

I take the farm manager of today as very different

我觉得现在的农场主与

from the farmer of 1900.

1900年的农夫相比非常不一样。

So it hasn't just been the spread

虽然这个职业还没有被归类为

of cognitively demanding professions.

专业从业者，

It's also been the upgrading of tasks

但这个职业也升级成为

like lawyer and doctor and what have you

像律师、 医生之类

that have made demands on our cognitive faculties.

需要专业知识的从业者。

But I've talked about education and employment.

我上面已经谈及教育和就业方面的例子。

Some of the habits of mind that we have developed

我们在20世纪

over the 20th century

养成的一些思维习惯

have paid off in unexpected areas.

已经在意想不到的领域收益颇丰。

I'm primarily a moral philosopher.

我是一个道德哲学家，

I merely have a holiday in psychology,

对心理学不感兴趣。

and what interests me in general is moral debate.

一般吸引我的话题都是道德辩论。

Now over the last century,

自上一世纪开始，

in developed nations like America,

在和美国一样的发达国家，

moral debate has escalated

道德辩论有大幅增加的趋势。

because we take the hypothetical seriously,

因为我们认真地做出假设，

and we also take universals seriously

我们也认真地对待事物的共性，

and look for logical connections.

并找出合乎逻辑的共同处。

When I came home in 1955 from university

马丁路德金时代的1955年

at the time of Martin Luther King,

当我从大学回到家。

a lot of people came home at that time

那时有很多学生都从学校回家

and started having arguments with their parents and grandparents.

与他们的父母和祖父母进行辩论。

My father was born in 1885,

我的父亲出生于 1885 年，

and he was mildly racially biased.

他有轻度种族偏见。

As an Irishman, he hated the English so much

作为一个爱尔兰人，他十分讨厌英国。

he didn't have much emotion for anyone else.

而对其他人没有什么讨厌的想法。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But he did have a sense that black people were inferior.

但他确实觉得黑人是劣等的。

And when we said to our parents and grandparents,

当我们问我们的父母和祖父母，

"How would you feel if tomorrow morning you woke up black?"

"如果明早一起床你发现自己是黑人了你会怎么想?"

they said that is the dumbest thing you've ever said.

他们说，这就是你说过的最愚蠢的话。

Who have you ever known who woke up in the morning --

你见过谁一早上醒来－

(Laughter) --

（笑声）-

that turned black?

就一下子变成黑人了？

In other words, they were fixed in the concrete

换句话说，他们固执于一些具体的

mores and attitudes they had inherited.

习俗和固有的态度上。

They would not take the hypothetical seriously,

他们不会认真地假设。

and without the hypothetical,

可是没有假设，

it's very difficult to get moral argument off the ground.

就很难把道德上的争论进行下去。

You have to say, imagine you were

那你要说了，试想你

in Iran, and imagine that your relatives

在伊朗，试想你的亲戚

all suffered from collateral damage

所遭受的摧残

even though they had done no wrong.

其实他们什么都没做错。

How would you feel about that?

你会怎么想？

And if someone of the older generation says,

老一辈的人会回答说，

well, our government takes care of us,

嗯，我们的政府关照我们，

and it's up to their government to take care of them,

他们的政府关照他们。

they're just not willing to take the hypothetical seriously.

他们真的不愿意认真地对待假设。

Or take an Islamic father whose daughter has been raped,

还有一个例子，一个伊斯兰的父亲，他的女儿被强奸了，

and he feels he's honor-bound to kill her.

他会觉得自己有权杀了她。

Well, he's treating his mores

是的，他就是在按照习俗办事，

as if they were sticks and stones and rocks that he had inherited,

这些习俗就像他所继承的石头和棍子一样，

and they're unmovable in any way by logic.

是很难被改变的。

They're just inherited mores.

他们只是机械地继承习俗。

Today we would say something like,

今天我们会说，

well, imagine you were knocked unconscious and sodomized.

嗯，想象一下你被撞昏迷或被摧残了。

Would you deserve to be killed?

你就该被杀吗?

And he would say, well that's not in the Koran.

他会说，古兰经没有记载那些东西，

That's not one of the principles I've got.

那不是我信奉的信条之一。

Well you, today, universalize your principles.

那么今天，你应该把信条广义化。

You state them as abstractions and you use logic on them.

用抽象思维来说明它，用逻辑思维来实践它。

If you have a principle such as,

如果你有一项信条是，

people shouldn't suffer unless they're guilty of something,

除非有罪，人就不应该被摧残。

then to exclude black people

然后再排除黑人。

you've got to make exceptions, don't you?

你是不是一定要弄出个例外来？

You have to say, well, blackness of skin,

你不得不说，嗯，肤色黑，

you couldn't suffer just for that.

你不能只是为肤色黑就该受苦。

It must be that blacks are somehow tainted.

一定是是黑人某些方面是脏的坏的。

And then we can bring empirical evidence to bear, can't we,

然后我们需要举出实例来，我们能吗？

and say, well how can you consider all blacks tainted

那么，你怎么可以觉得所有黑人都是脏的坏的呢？

when St. Augustine was black and Thomas Sowell is black.

圣奥古斯汀是黑人和托马斯·索威尔是黑人。

And you can get moral argument off the ground, then,

你无法在道德辩论中取胜，

because you're not treating moral principles as concrete entities.

因为你不再把道德原则当做具体的个例，

You're treating them as universals,

你把这些原则广义化，

to be rendered consistent by logic.

让这些原则符合逻辑。

Now how did all of this arise out of I.Q. tests?

那么，这一切都是如何提高我们的智商的呢？

That's what initially got me going on cognitive history.

这就是为什么我一开始就痴迷研究认知历史。

If you look at the I.Q. test,

看看智商测试，

you find the gains have been greatest in certain areas.

你会发现它在某种特定领域中得到极大的提高。

The similarities subtest of the Wechsler

相似还有韦氏子测试，

is about classification,

那是关于分类分析的。

and we have made enormous gains

在分类分析的测试终，

on that classification subtest.

我们也取得了巨大的进步。

There are other parts of the I.Q. test battery

智商测试的其他部分

that are about using logic on abstractions.

是关于对抽象事物运用逻辑思维的。

Some of you may have taken Raven's Progressive Matrices,

你们中也许有人已经做过瑞文渐进矩阵，

and it's all about analogies.

是关于类比分析的。

And in 1900, people could do simple analogies.

在 1900 年，人们能做简单的类比分析。

That is, if you said to them, cats are like wildcats.

也就是说，如果你对他们说，猫是象野猫一样。

What are dogs like?

那狗像什么？

They would say wolves.

他们会说象狼。

But by 1960, people could attack Raven's

但到 1960 年，人们可以在瑞文渐进矩阵上

on a much more sophisticated level.

更进一步。

If you said, we've got two squares followed by a triangle,

如果你说，我们有两个正方形在一个三角形后面，

what follows two circles?

那两个圆后面跟着什么？

They could say a semicircle.

他们会说是一个半圆。

Just as a triangle is half of a square,

就象说三角形是一个正方形的一半一样，

a semicircle is half of a circle.

半圆是一个圆形的一半。

By 2010, college graduates, if you said

到 2010 年，如果你问大学毕业生，

two circles followed by a semicircle,

两个圆排在一个半圆之后，

two sixteens followed by what,

两个十六岁跟在什么之后呢？

they would say eight, because eight is half of 16.

他们说8，因为8是 16 的一半。

That is, they had moved so far from the concrete world

这就是，他们已经可以脱离具象世界

that they could even ignore

更深远地思考问题了。他们甚至可以忽略

the appearance of the symbols that were involved in the question.

智商题中那些符号的外观。

Now, I should say one thing that's very disheartening.

但现在我还应该说一件非常令人沮丧的事。

We haven't made progress on all fronts.

那就是我们还没有在所有的方面上都取得进步。

One of the ways in which we would like to deal

处理现代社会

with the sophistication of the modern world

复杂问题的方法之一，

is through politics,

就是通过政治。

and sadly you can have humane moral principles,

可悲的是，你可以有人性的道德原则，

you can classify, you can use logic on abstractions,

你可以分类分析，你可以在抽象问题上运用逻辑，

and if you're ignorant of history and of other countries,

如果你是无视历史和其他国家，

you can't do politics.

你就不能搞好政治活动。

We've noticed, in a trend among young Americans,

我们注意到，年轻的美国人有这样一个趋势，

that they read less history and less literature

他们很少读历史和文学

and less material about foreign lands,

更不要提外国的历史和文学。

and they're essentially ahistorical.

这些年轻人基本上与历史无关。

They live in the bubble of the present.

他们活在当下的泡沫里。

They don't know the Korean War from the war in Vietnam.

他们不知道朝鲜战争也不知道越南战争。

They don't know who was an ally of America in World War II.

他们不知道谁是第二次世界大战中的美国盟友。

Think how different America would be

想象一下，美国会将是如何的不同吧。

if every American knew that this is the fifth time

如果每个美国人都知道这已经是第五次

Western armies have gone to Afghanistan to put its house in order,

西方军队进驻阿富汗了，

and if they had some idea of exactly what had happened

如果每个美国人都知道

on those four previous occasions.

前面的四次都发生了什么。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And that is, they had barely left,

但是，他们（美国的年轻人）几乎从来没有离开

and there wasn't a trace in the sand.

他们生活的小圈子。

Or imagine how different things would be

再想象一下，事情会如何不同吧！

if most Americans knew that we had been lied

如果大多数美国人都知道我们一直被欺骗着

into four of our last six wars.

参加了六场战争中的四场。

You know, the Spanish didn't sink the battleship Maine,

你知道吗？西班牙没有击沉缅因战舰，

the Lusitania was not an innocent vessel

卢西塔尼亚号也不是无辜的。

but was loaded with munitions,

它载满武器弹药。

the North Vietnamese did not attack the Seventh Fleet,

北越没有根本攻击第七舰队，

and, of course, Saddam Hussein hated al Qaeda

并且，当然，萨达姆 · 侯赛因痛恨基地组织，

and had nothing to do with it,

跟他们一点儿关系也没有。

and yet the administration convinced 45 percent of the people

然而，政府当局却能让45%的美国人相信

that they were brothers in arms,

萨达姆和基地组织关系紧密。

when he would hang one from the nearest lamppost.

这样他（领导者）就找到了理由（去打仗）。

But I don't want to end on a pessimistic note.

但，我不想用悲观的基调做结语。

The 20th century has shown enormous cognitive reserves

在20 世纪，我们普通人呈现出巨大认知潜力。

in ordinary people that we have now realized,

我们自己已经充分认识到这一点。

and the aristocracy was convinced

以往的贵族相信

that the average person couldn't make it,

普通人永远不会

that they could never share their mindset

拥有象他们那样的思维

or their cognitive abilities.

和认知能力。

Lord Curzon once said

柯曾爵士曾经说过：

he saw people bathing in the North Sea,

他看见人们在北海沐浴，

and he said, "Why did no one tell me

他问，"为什么没有人告诉我

what white bodies the lower orders have?"

白人怎么这么没有秩序?

As if they were a reptile.

就好像他们是爬虫。”

Well, Dickens was right and he was wrong. [Correction: Rudyard Kipling]

其实呢，狄更斯是对和他是错的。[更正： 拉迪亚德 · 吉卜林]

[Kipling] said, "The colonel's lady and Judy O'Grady

[吉卜林] 说："上校的夫人和茱蒂奥格雷迪

are sisters underneath the skin."

在皮肤以下是姐妹呢"。

(Applause)

（掌声）