Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?

Translator: Julie Mbeyella Reviewer: Doris Mangalu

Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled

Miaka kumi iliyopita, niliandika kitabu nilichokipa jina

"Our Final Century?" Question mark.

"Karne yetu ya mwisho?" Alama ya kuuliza.

My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)

Wachapishaji wa kitabu hiki waliondoa alama ya kuuliza. (Vicheko)

The American publishers changed our title

Wachapishaji wa Marekani walibadili jina

to "Our Final Hour."

na kuwa "Lisaa Letu la Mwisho".

Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.

Wamarekani hupenda kuridhishwa haraka na kinyume.

(Laughter)

(Vicheko)

And my theme was this:

Na ujumbe wangu ulikuwa huu:

Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,

Dunia yetu imekuwepo kwa karne milioni 45,

but this one is special —

lakini hii hapa ni maalumu ---

it's the first where one species, ours,

ni ya kwanza ambayo jamii moja, yetu,

has the planet's future in its hands.

ina mustakabali wa sayari mikononi mwake.

Over nearly all of Earth's history,

Zaidi karibia ya historia yote ya Dunia,

threats have come from nature —

vitisho vimetoka kwenye mazingira,

disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —

magonjwa, mitetemeko ya ardhi na mengine mengi --

but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.

lakini kuanzia sasa, hatari kubwa inatoka kwetu.

And it's now not just the nuclear threat;

Na sasa sio matisho tu ya nuklia;

in our interconnected world,

kwenye dunia yetu iliyoungana,

network breakdowns can cascade globally;

kuvunjika kwa mitandao kunaweza sambaa duniani;

air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days;

usafiri wa anga unaweza kusambaza magonjwa dunia nzima ndani ya siku;

and social media can spread panic and rumor

na mitandao ya kijamii inaweza kusambaza vitisho na uzushi

literally at the speed of light.

kihalisi kama kasi ya mwanga.

We fret too much about minor hazards —

Tunagombana sana kuhusu matatizo madogo --

improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,

uwezekano wa ndege kudondoka, kemikali kwenye chakula,

low radiation doses, and so forth —

dozi ndogo za mionzi, na kadhalika --

but we and our political masters

lakini sisi na wakuu wetu wa siasa

are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.

tupo kwenye kukana kuhusu hali za majanga.

The worst have thankfully not yet happened.

Bahati nzuri mabaya hayajatokea bado.

Indeed, they probably won't.

Kweli, pengine hayatatokea.

But if an event is potentially devastating,

Lakini kama tukio lina maafa makubwa,

it's worth paying a substantial premium

linastahili kupewa faida kubwa

to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,

kulinda dhidi yake, hata kama inaweza isitokee,

just as we take out fire insurance on our house.

kama tunavyotoa bima ya moto kwenye nyumba yetu.

And as science offers greater power and promise,

Kama sayansi inavyoleta nguvu kubwa na ahadi,

the downside gets scarier too.

upande wa chini unazidi kuogopesha pia.

We get ever more vulnerable.

Tunazidi kuwa dhaifu na waoga,

Within a few decades,

Ndani ya miongo michache,

millions will have the capability

mamilioni watakuwa na uwezo,

to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,

wa kutumia vibaya bioteknolojia inayokua,

just as they misuse cybertech today.

Kama wanavyotumia teknolojia vibaya leo.

Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,

Freeman Dyson, kwenye mazungumzo ya TED,

foresaw that children will design and create new organisms

aliona kuwa huko mbeleni watoto wataweza kutengeneza viumbe hai

just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets.

kama ambavyo kizazi chake kilivyocheza na seti za kemia.

Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,

Hii inaweza kuwa sayansi ya kubuniwa zaidi,

but were even part of his scenario to come about,

lakini tuna amini itatokea hata kwa kiasi,

our ecology and even our species

mazingira yetu na hata viumbe vyetu

would surely not survive long unscathed.

hawataweza kuishi muda mrefu bila kubadilika,

For instance, there are some eco-extremists

Mfano, kuna wanamazingira wengi wa msimamo mkali,

who think that it would be better for the planet,

wanaomini kua itafaa kwa sayari yetu,

for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.

kwa Gaia, kama kutakuwa na binadamu wachache.

What happens when such people have mastered

Nini kitatokea kama watu hawa wakifuzu

synthetic biology techniques

ufundi wa kibiolojia za sanisia

that will be widespread by 2050?

ambao utasambaa ifikapo mwaka 2050?

And by then, other science fiction nightmares

Kipindi hicho, matisho mengine ya sayansi ya kubuniwa

may transition to reality:

yanaweza kugeuka kweli:

dumb robots going rogue,

roboti za kijinga kujiongoza zenyewe,

or a network that develops a mind of its own

au mtandao unaotumia akili yake yenyewe

threatens us all.

unatutisha sote.

Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?

Je, tutaweza kujikinga na hizi hatari kwa sheria?

We must surely try, but these enterprises

Itabidi tujaribu, lakini hizi biashara

are so competitive, so globalized,

zina ushindani mkubwa, zipo dunia nzima,

and so driven by commercial pressure,

na zinasukumwa na mbinu za biashara,

that anything that can be done will be done somewhere,

kwa kila kinachoweza kufanyika, kitafanyika mahali,

whatever the regulations say.

bila kujali sheria zinasema nini.

It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.

Ni kama sheria za madawa -- tunajaribu kuzipunguza, lakini hatuwezi.

And the global village will have its village idiots,

Na kijiji cha dunia kitakua na wajinga wa kijiji,

and they'll have a global range.

nao watakua na masafa ya dunia.

So as I said in my book,

Kama nilivyosema kwenye kitabu changu,

we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.

tutakuwa na mwendo mtata kwenye hii karne.

There may be setbacks to our society —

Kunaweza kuwa na vikwazo kwenye jamii yetu --

indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.

kweli, asilimia 50 ya vikwazo zikali.

But are there conceivable events

Lakini kuna matukio ya maana

that could be even worse,

yanayoweza kuwa mabaya zaidi,

events that could snuff out all life?

matukio yanayoweza kutoa maisha yote?

When a new particle accelerator came online,

Pale punje mpya chochezi iikija mtandaoni,

some people anxiously asked,

badhi ya watu walijiuliza kwa bidii,

could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,

vinaweza kuharibu dunia, au mbaya zaidi,

rip apart the fabric of space?

kuharibu kabisa mfumo wa anga?

Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.

Bahati nzuri, tuliweza kujihakikishia.

I and others pointed out that nature

Mimi na wenzangu tulisema kua asili

has done the same experiments

imefanya majaribio kama hayo

zillions of times already,

mara zilioni tayari,

via cosmic ray collisions.

kutumia kugongana kwa miali ya anga.

But scientists should surely be precautionary

Lakini wanasayansi wanatakiwa wawe makini

about experiments that generate conditions

kuhusu majaribio yanayotengeneza hali

without precedent in the natural world.

bila uhakiki kwenye dunia ya halisi.

Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating

Wanabiolojia wanatakiwa kuepuka kuachia uharibifu muhimu wa

genetically modified pathogens.

vimelea vilivyoundwa kijenetiki.

And by the way, our special aversion

Na pia, karaha yetu ya kipekee

to the risk of truly existential disasters

kwenye hatari ya mafaa makubwa

depends on a philosophical and ethical question,

inatokana na swali hili kubwa la msingi,

and it's this:

nalo ni;

Consider two scenarios.

Zingatia hali mbili.

Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.

Hali A inaua asilimia 90 ya binadamu.

Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.

Hali B inaua asilimia 100.

How much worse is B than A?

Je B ni mbaya kiasi gani kuliko A?

Some would say 10 percent worse.

Baadhi watasema ni asilimia 10 mbaya zaidi.

The body count is 10 percent higher.

Idadi ni asilimia 10 zaidi.

But I claim that B is incomparably worse.

Lakini nasema kua B ni mbaya zaidi.

As an astronomer, I can't believe

Kama mwanafalaki, siamini

that humans are the end of the story.

binadamu ni mwisho wa hadithi.

It is five billion years before the sun flares up,

Ni miaka bilioni tano mpaka jua liripuke,

and the universe may go on forever,

na ulimwengu ungeendelea kuwepo,

so post-human evolution,

kwahiyo mageuzi ya binadamu wa baadae,

here on Earth and far beyond,

hapa duniani na kwingineko mbali,

could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process

inaweza kuwa ndefu kama harakati ya Darwinian

that's led to us, and even more wonderful.

iliyokuja kwetu, na nzuri zaidi.

And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster,

Na kweli, mageuzi ya mbeleni yatatokea kwa haraka zaidi,

on a technological timescale,

kwenye kipimo cha mda cha teknolojia,

not a natural selection timescale.

sio wa uchaguzi wa asili.

So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,

Kwahiyo tupo katika mwanga wa hicho kipimo,

shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk

kutokupokea hata hatari moja kati ya billioni

that human extinction would foreclose

ambayo kupotea kwa binadamu kutasababisha

this immense potential.

huu uwezekano mkubwa.

Some scenarios that have been envisaged

Baadhi ya hali ambazo zilionyesha

may indeed be science fiction,

kua kweli zingekua sayansi ya kubuniwa,

but others may be disquietingly real.

lakini nyingine zinaweza kuwa ni za kweli.

It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar

Ni msemo muhimu kua vile visivyozoeleka

is not the same as the improbable,

sio sawa na vinavyoshindikana,

and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University

na ndio maana, sisi katika Chuo cha Cambridge,

are setting up a center to study how to mitigate

tunaanda kitivo cha kujifunza jinsi ya kuepuka

these existential risks.

hizi hatari kubwa.

It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people

Inaonekana ni ya maana kwa watu wachache

to think about these potential disasters.

kuwaza kuhusu haya mafaa yanayoweza kutokea.

And we need all the help we can get from others,

Na tunahitaji msaada wote tutakaopata kwa wengine,

because we are stewards of a precious

sababu sote ni wahudumu wa,

pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,

kidoti cha bluu kwenye ulimwengu huu mkubwa,

a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.

sayari yenye karne milioni 50 mbele yake.

And so let's not jeopardize that future.

Kwa hiyo tusiharibu mustakabali wetu.

And I'd like to finish with a quote

Na ningependa kumalizia na nukuu

from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.

kutoka kwa mwanasayansi mashuhuri aitwae Peter Medawar.

I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind

nanukuu "Kengengele zinazolia kwa binadamu

are like the bells of Alpine cattle.

ni kama zile za mifugo ya Alpine.

They are attached to our own necks,

Zimefungwa shingoni mwetu wenyewe,

and it must be our fault if they do not make

na ni juu yetu kama hazitatengeneza

a tuneful and melodious sound."

mfuatano mzuri wa sauti."

Thank you very much.

Asanteni sana.

(Applause)

(Makofi)