Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?

151,587 views ・ 2014-08-25

TED


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譯者: Qingqing Mao 審譯者: Jing Zhou
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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十年前,我寫了一本書。
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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書名為《 我們的末世紀?》以問號結尾。
00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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我的出版商去掉了問號。(笑聲)
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
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美國出版商把我們的書名
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
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改成了《我們的末日》。
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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美國人喜歡即刻的滿足與逆反。
00:30
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:32
And my theme was this:
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我的主題是這樣的,
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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我們的地球已經存在了四千五百多萬個世紀。
00:38
but this one is special —
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但這個世紀是特殊的,
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
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第一次有一個物種,也就是我們,
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
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掌握了這個星球的命運。
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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地球過去的歷史中,
00:48
threats have come from nature —
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威脅主要來源於自然——
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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疾病、地震、小行星等等——
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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但是從今往後,最大的威脅來源於我們自己。
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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現今不止是核威脅,
01:02
in our interconnected world,
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在這個相互連接的世界裡,
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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網路故障可以波及全球,
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days;
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航空旅行可以在幾天內將流行病傳遍世界。
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
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社會媒體簡直能以光速
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
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散播恐慌和謠言。
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
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我們太過苦惱於那些次要的危害,
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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像是發生概率極小的空難、食品中的致癌物、
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
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低輻射等等。
01:27
but we and our political masters
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但我們和政治領袖們
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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卻否認那些災難性的情節。
01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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幸運的是最可怕的事情還沒有發生,
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
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的確,他們可能不會發生。
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
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但是如果有一件事具潛在的毀滅性,
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
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那就值得我們付出大量的精力與金錢。
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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把它掐死在搖籃裡,即使它不太可能發生。
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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這就像給我們的房子買火災險。
01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
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科學提供了更強大的力量和保證,
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
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隨之而來的負面影響也變得更加可怕,
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
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我們變得更加脆弱。
02:05
Within a few decades,
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數十年之內,
02:06
millions will have the capability
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數百萬人將會有能力
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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濫用飛速發展的生物技術,
02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
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就像他們今天濫用網路技術一樣。
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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費裡曼•戴森在TED演講中
02:19
foresaw that children will design and create new organisms
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預言孩子們會設計並創造新的有機體,
02:22
just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets.
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就像他們那一代人擺弄化學裝置一樣平常。
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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好吧,這大概已經到科幻小說的邊緣了,
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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但是即使他情節中一小部份發生了,
02:32
our ecology and even our species
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我們的生態系統乃至整個人類種族
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
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必定不會安然無恙地存活太久。
02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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比如說,有一些生態極端主義者
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
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認為如果能大大減少人口,
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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那會對這整個星球和大地母親更好。
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
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當這樣的人掌握了
02:52
synthetic biology techniques
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那些將在2050年普及的合成生物技術,
02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
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會發生什麽?
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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到那時,其他科幻小說中的噩夢
03:00
may transition to reality:
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也可能變為現實。
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
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成了流氓的愚蠢機器人
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
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或者一套發展出自我意識的網路系統
03:06
threatens us all.
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威脅我們所有人。
03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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那麼,我們能不能通過條例來防範這樣的風險?
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
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無疑我們必將嘗試,
但那些企業是如此求勝心切,
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
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如此全球化,如此被商業壓力所驅使,
03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
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03:20
that anything that can be done will be done somewhere,
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以至於他們會不擇手段,
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
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不管法規條例說了些什麽。
03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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這就像製毒法律——我們試圖管制,但做不到。
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
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地球村裡將會有些愚蠢的村民,
03:31
and they'll have a global range.
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影響到整個地球。
03:35
So as I said in my book,
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所以就像我在書中所說,
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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我們會在顛簸中走完這個世紀。
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
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我們的社會可能會遭遇挫折——
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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事實上,有 50% 的機率是極其嚴重的挫折。
03:48
But are there conceivable events
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但是,能否想像
03:51
that could be even worse,
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更糟糕的事件,
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
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那些可以毀滅所有生命的事件?
03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
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當一台新的粒子加速器開始運行時,
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
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有人焦急地問
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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它會毀滅地球嗎?
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
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或者更糟,撕破時空的結構?
04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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幸運的是對此我們可以放心,
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
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我和其他一些人指出
04:11
has done the same experiments
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大自然已經將同樣的實驗
04:13
zillions of times already,
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通過宇宙射線的撞擊
04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
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做了無數次。
04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
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但是對於那些在自然界中
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
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沒有先例的實驗,
04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
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科學家們應該警鐘長鳴,
04:25
Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating
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生物學家應該預防
具有潛在毀滅性的轉基因病原體。
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
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04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
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順便說一句,我們對於
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
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毀滅性災難的風險尤其反感,
04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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這是基於一個哲學倫理問題。
04:42
and it's this:
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這個問題是這樣的。
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
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想像如下兩個場景:
04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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情景 A:90%的人類會消亡;
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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情景 B:100%的人類會消亡。
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
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情景 B 比情景 A 糟糕多少呢?
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
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有人會說糟糕 10%,
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
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因為死亡人數多 10%。
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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但我堅持情景 B 是無比糟糕的。
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
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做為天文學家,我無法相信
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
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人類是整個故事的結尾。
05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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在太陽開始燃燒的五十億年前,宇宙就誕生了,
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
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而且可能會永遠持續下去。
05:18
so post-human evolution,
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因此,在地球和及其遙遠的地方,
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
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後人類的進化會被延長,
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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就像產生了我們人類的式的達爾文式進化過程,
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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甚至更加絕妙。
05:29
And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster,
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事實上,未來的進化會發生得更快,
05:31
on a technological timescale,
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會在一個技術時間尺度上,
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
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而不是一個自然選擇的時間尺度上。
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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所以,考慮到這些重大的利害關係,
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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我們不應該接受哪怕十億分之一的風險,
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
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因人類滅絕而中止了
05:46
this immense potential.
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這巨大潛力的風險。
05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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有些設想中的情景
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
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的確可能只會在科幻小說裡出現,
05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
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但其他的一些可能會是令人不安的現實。
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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一句重要的格言這麼說:
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
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不熟悉不等於不可能。
06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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事實上,這就是為什麽我們正在劍橋大學
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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創建一個中心來研究
06:06
these existential risks.
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如何緩解這些生存風險。
06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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看來讓一小部分人
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
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思考這些潛在災難是值得的。
06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
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我們需要可以從其他人那裡得到的所有幫助。
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
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因為我們是來自茫茫宇宙中
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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那顆珍貴暗藍色圓石上的守護者,
06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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一顆已經走過五千多萬個世紀的星球,
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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所以請我們不要危及它的未來。
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
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我想用一段偉大科學家彼得•梅達沃的話
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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結束今天的演講,這段話是這樣的:
06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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「為人類敲響的鐘
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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就像阿爾卑斯山上牛的鈴鐺,
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
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繫在我們自己的脖子上。
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
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如果它們沒有發出和諧悠揚的樂聲,
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
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那一定是我們自己的錯。」
06:47
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝。
06:49
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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