Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Ivana Korom

Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled

Pre deset godina, napisao sam knjigu koju sam nazvao

"Our Final Century?" Question mark.

"Naš poslednji vek?" sa znakom pitanja.

My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)

Moji izdavači su izbacili upitnik. (Smeh)

The American publishers changed our title

Američki izdavači su promenili naslov

to "Our Final Hour."

u "Naš poslednji čas".

Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.

Amerikanci vole trenutno zadovoljavanje i obrnuto.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And my theme was this:

Moja tema je bila ovo:

Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,

naša Zemlja postoji 45 miliona vekova,

but this one is special —

ali ovaj je poseban -

it's the first where one species, ours,

to je prvi gde jedna vrsta, naša,

has the planet's future in its hands.

drži budućnost planete u svojim rukama.

Over nearly all of Earth's history,

Tokom skoro cele istorije Zemlje,

threats have come from nature —

pretnju je predstavljala priroda -

disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —

zaraze, zemljotresi, asteroidi i drugo -

but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.

ali od sada, mi predstavljamo najveću opasnost.

And it's now not just the nuclear threat;

To sada nije samo nuklearna pretnja -

in our interconnected world,

u našem povezanom svetu,

network breakdowns can cascade globally;

pad mreže može da se manifestuje globalno,

air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days;

avionski letovi mogu da rašire epidemije širom sveta za nekoliko dana,

and social media can spread panic and rumor

a društveni mediji mogu da šire paniku i glasine

literally at the speed of light.

bukvalno brzinom svetlosti.

We fret too much about minor hazards —

Previše strahujemo oko manjih pretnji -

improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,

neverovatnih sudara u letu, karcinogena u hrani,

low radiation doses, and so forth —

malih doza radijacije i tako dalje -

but we and our political masters

ali mi i naši politički gospodari

are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.

živimo u poricanju oko katastrofalnih scenarija.

The worst have thankfully not yet happened.

Na sreću, najgori se još nisu desili.

Indeed, they probably won't.

Zaista, verovatno ni neće.

But if an event is potentially devastating,

Ali ako je događaj potencijalno razarajući,

it's worth paying a substantial premium

vredi platiti značajno osiguranje

to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,

da se od njega zaštitite, čak i ako nije verovatan,

just as we take out fire insurance on our house.

kao što osiguravamo kuće protiv požara.

And as science offers greater power and promise,

A kako nauka nudi sve veću moć i obećanja,

the downside gets scarier too.

loša strana takođe postaje sve strašnija.

We get ever more vulnerable.

Postajemo sve ranjiviji.

Within a few decades,

Kroz nekoliko decenija,

millions will have the capability

milioni će imati mogućnost

to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,

zloupotrebe biotehnologije koja se brzo razvija,

just as they misuse cybertech today.

isto kao što danas zloupotrebljavaju sajber tehnologiju.

Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,

U TED govoru, Friman Dajson

foresaw that children will design and create new organisms

je predvideo da će deca dizajnirati i stvarati nove organizme

just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets.

rutinski kao što se njegova generacija igrala kompletima za hemiju.

Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,

Ovo je možda na ivici naučne fantastike,

but were even part of his scenario to come about,

ali ukoliko se obistini samo deo njegovog scenarija,

our ecology and even our species

naša ekologija i čak i naša vrsta

would surely not survive long unscathed.

ne bi dugo preživele nedirnute.

For instance, there are some eco-extremists

Na primer, postoje neki eko-ekstremisti

who think that it would be better for the planet,

koji misle da bi bilo bolje za planetu,

for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.

za Gaju, da postoji mnogo manje ljudi.

What happens when such people have mastered

Šta bi se desilo kada bi takvi ljudi ovladali

synthetic biology techniques

tehnikama sintetičke biologije

that will be widespread by 2050?

koje će biti sveprisutne do 2050?

And by then, other science fiction nightmares

Do tada, drugi košmari iz naučne fantastike

may transition to reality:

možda postanu stvarnost:

dumb robots going rogue,

glupi roboti koji podivljaju

or a network that develops a mind of its own

ili mreža koja počne sama da misli

threatens us all.

i preti svima nama.

Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?

Možemo li se regulisanjem braniti od takvih rizika?

We must surely try, but these enterprises

Sigurno moramo pokušati, ali ova preduzeća

are so competitive, so globalized,

su toliko takmičarski nastrojena, toliko globalizovana

and so driven by commercial pressure,

i vođena komercijalnim pritiskom

that anything that can be done will be done somewhere,

da će sve što može da bude urađeno biti urađeno negde,

whatever the regulations say.

bez obzira na pravila.

It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.

To je poput zakona o drogama - pokušavamo da regulišemo, ali ne možemo.

And the global village will have its village idiots,

Globalno selo će imati svoje seoske idiote,

and they'll have a global range.

a oni će imati globalni opseg.

So as I said in my book,

Kao što sam rekao u svojoj knjizi,

we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.

čeka nas nezgodna vožnja kroz ovaj vek.

There may be setbacks to our society —

Možda će biti prepreka za naše društvo -

indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.

zaista, šanse za veliku prepreku su 50%.

But are there conceivable events

Ali da li postoje zamislivi događaji

that could be even worse,

koji bi mogli biti još gori,

events that could snuff out all life?

događaji koji bi ugasili sav život?

When a new particle accelerator came online,

Kada se na internetu pojavio novi akcelerator čestica,

some people anxiously asked,

neki ljudi su se nervozno upitali

could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,

da li bi mogao da uništi Zemlju,

rip apart the fabric of space?

ili još gore, razori materiju svemira?

Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.

Na sreću, postoji uteha.

I and others pointed out that nature

Ja i drugi smo istakli da je priroda

has done the same experiments

izvodila iste eksperimente

zillions of times already,

već nebrojeno puta,

via cosmic ray collisions.

preko sudara kosmičkih zraka.

But scientists should surely be precautionary

Ali naučnici bi svakako trebalo da paze

about experiments that generate conditions

na eksperimente koji stvaraju uslove

without precedent in the natural world.

bez presedana u prirodnom svetu.

Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating

Biolozi bi trebalo da izbegavaju puštanje potencijalno razarajućih

genetically modified pathogens.

genetski modifikovanih patogena.

And by the way, our special aversion

Usput, naša naročita averzija

to the risk of truly existential disasters

prema riziku od zaista egzistencijalnih katastrofa

depends on a philosophical and ethical question,

zavisi od filozofskog i etičkog pitanja,

and it's this:

a to je sledeće.

Consider two scenarios.

Zamislite dva scenarija.

Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.

Prvi scenario će zbrisati 90% čovečanstva.

Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.

Drugi će zbrisati 100%.

How much worse is B than A?

Koliko je drugi gori od prvog?

Some would say 10 percent worse.

Neki bi rekli 10% gori.

The body count is 10 percent higher.

Broj mrtvih je 10% veći.

But I claim that B is incomparably worse.

Ali ja mislim da je drugi nemerljivo gori.

As an astronomer, I can't believe

Kao astronom, ne mogu da verujem

that humans are the end of the story.

da su ljudi kraj priče.

It is five billion years before the sun flares up,

Ima pet milijardi godina pre nego što se Sunce zapali

and the universe may go on forever,

i univerzum se možda zauvek nastavi,

so post-human evolution,

dakle post-ljudska evolucija,

here on Earth and far beyond,

na Zemlji i dalje od nje,

could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process

može da se produži kao i Darvinov proces

that's led to us, and even more wonderful.

koji je doveo do nas, i da bude još lepša.

And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster,

Evolucija u budućnosti će se zaista dešavati mnogo brže

on a technological timescale,

na tehnološkoj skali,

not a natural selection timescale.

ne na skali prirodne selekcije.

So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,

U svetlu tih ogromnih rizika,

shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk

sigurno ne bi trebalo da prihvatimo ni rizik jednog u milijardu

that human extinction would foreclose

da bi istrebljenje ljudi moglo da prekine

this immense potential.

ovaj ogromni potencijal.

Some scenarios that have been envisaged

Neki scenariji koji su zamišljeni

may indeed be science fiction,

zaista mogu da budu naučna fantastika,

but others may be disquietingly real.

ali drugi mogu da budu razočaravajuće realni.

It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar

Važna je maksima da nepoznato

is not the same as the improbable,

nije isto što i nemoguće

and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University

i zato zapravo na Univerzitetu Kembridž

are setting up a center to study how to mitigate

osnivamo centar za izučavanje toga kako da se umanje

these existential risks.

ovi egzistencijalni rizici.

It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people

Čini se kao da vredi da samo nekoliko ljudi

to think about these potential disasters.

razmišlja o ovim potencijalnim katastrofama.

And we need all the help we can get from others,

Potrebna nam je sva pomoć koju možemo dobiti od drugih

because we are stewards of a precious

jer smo posada na dragocenoj

pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,

bledoj plavoj tački u ogromnom kosmosu,

a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.

na planeti koja ispred sebe ima 50 miliona vekova.

And so let's not jeopardize that future.

Hajde da ne ugrozimo tu budućnost.

And I'd like to finish with a quote

Želeo bih da završim citatom

from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.

sjajnog naučnika, Pitera Medavara.

I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind

On kaže: "Zvona koja zvone za čovečanstvom

are like the bells of Alpine cattle.

su poput zvona na grlima stoke u Alpima.

They are attached to our own necks,

Prikačena su za naše vratove

and it must be our fault if they do not make

i mora da je naša krivica ako ne proizvode

a tuneful and melodious sound."

harmoničan i melodičan zvuk."

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)