Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?

翻译人员: Evelina Wong 校对人员: Zhiting Chen

Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled

十年前，我写了一本

"Our Final Century?" Question mark.

名为《我们的末世纪？》的书， 书名以问号结尾

My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)

但出版商把问号删掉了.（笑声）

The American publishers changed our title

这位美国出版商把书名改成了

to "Our Final Hour."

《我们的最后时刻》

Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.

美国人喜欢即时行乐然后再反其道而行。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And my theme was this:

我当时的主题是这样的：

Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,

我们的地球已经存在了 四千五百万个世纪了，

but this one is special —

但是这个世纪是最特别的——

it's the first where one species, ours,

第一次有一个物种， 也就是我们人类，

has the planet's future in its hands.

掌控着这个星球的未来。

Over nearly all of Earth's history,

在几乎所有的地球历史中，

threats have come from nature —

威胁都是来自大自然——

disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —

疾病、地震以及小行星等等——

but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.

但是从现在起，最大的危险 来自我们人类。

And it's now not just the nuclear threat;

现在我们所面临的 不仅仅是核威胁；

in our interconnected world,

在我们这个相互联系的世界，

network breakdowns can cascade globally;

网络故障可以波及全球；

air travel can spread pandemics worldwide within days;

航空旅行可以将流行病 在几天内传播到全世界；

and social media can spread panic and rumor

并且可以毫不夸张地说

literally at the speed of light.

社交媒体传播恐慌和谣言 如光速一般。

We fret too much about minor hazards —

我们对那些不起眼的危害 担心得太多了——

improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,

未必会发生的空难、 食品中的致癌物、

low radiation doses, and so forth —

低剂量的辐射，等等——

but we and our political masters

但是我们和我们的政治领袖们

are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.

却不肯接受灾难性的场景 发生的可能性。

The worst have thankfully not yet happened.

谢天谢地最糟糕的情况 还没有发生。

Indeed, they probably won't.

的确，它们很有可能不会发生。

But if an event is potentially devastating,

但是哪怕只有一个事件是 具有潜在的毁灭性的，

it's worth paying a substantial premium

那么就值得投入大量的费用

to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,

去预防它，即使它不大可能发生，

just as we take out fire insurance on our house.

正如我们为我们的房子 购买火灾险一样。

And as science offers greater power and promise,

随着科学提供了 更大的能力和希望，

the downside gets scarier too.

它的负面影响也会变得更加可怕。

We get ever more vulnerable.

我们变得更加脆弱。

Within a few decades,

数十年之内，

millions will have the capability

能够滥用快速发展的生物技术的人

to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,

将达到数百万,

just as they misuse cybertech today.

就像今天滥用网络技术的人一样。

Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,

弗里曼·戴森在一次TED演讲中预言,

foresaw that children will design and create new organisms

孩子们将会设计和创造新的生物体，

just as routinely as his generation played with chemistry sets.

而这就像他们那一代人 玩化学装置一样常见。

Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,

当然，这可能有点像 科幻小说的场景，

but were even part of his scenario to come about,

但即使只是这个设想中的一部分 变成现实，

our ecology and even our species

我们的生态系统和我们人类自身

would surely not survive long unscathed.

都必定将无法安然无恙地长久生存。

For instance, there are some eco-extremists

例如，一些生态极端主义者认为

who think that it would be better for the planet,

人类的数量越少，

for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.

对这颗星球， 对我们生活的地球越好。

What happens when such people have mastered

当这样的人掌握了

synthetic biology techniques

那些将会在2050年可能被普遍推广的 合成生物技术后

that will be widespread by 2050?

将会发生什么样的事情呢？

And by then, other science fiction nightmares

到那时，其他科幻小说中的噩梦

may transition to reality:

就可能变为现实：

dumb robots going rogue,

愚蠢的机器人会像流氓一样，

or a network that develops a mind of its own

或者一个网络会进化出自己的意识

threatens us all.

从而威胁到我们所有人。

Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?

我们能通过监管来预防这些风险吗？

We must surely try, but these enterprises

无论如何我们得试一试， 但是这些企业

are so competitive, so globalized,

是如此的求胜心切， 如此的全球化，

and so driven by commercial pressure,

如此的受商业压力的驱动，

that anything that can be done will be done somewhere,

所以他们将会不顾一切 以达成他们的目的，

whatever the regulations say.

而不管法规是如何规定的。

It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.

就像毒品法——我们试着去约束， 但收效甚微。

And the global village will have its village idiots,

地球村里总会有些愚昧的村民，

and they'll have a global range.

并且他们的所作所为的影响 会波及全球。

So as I said in my book,

所以就像我在书中所说，

we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.

这个世纪我们不会过得一帆风顺。

There may be setbacks to our society —

我们的社会可能会遭遇挫折——

indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.

甚至，有50%的可能 会遭遇一个严重的挫折。

But are there conceivable events

但是可能还会有更糟糕的

that could be even worse,

事件发生吗，

events that could snuff out all life?

那种可以消灭掉所有生命的事件？

When a new particle accelerator came online,

当一台新的粒子加速器联机以后，

some people anxiously asked,

一些人不安地问道，

could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,

它能毁灭地球吗？或者，

rip apart the fabric of space?

撕破空间的构造？

Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.

幸运的是，至少这点我们 还是能保证不会发生的。

I and others pointed out that nature

我和其他人指出，大自然

has done the same experiments

通过宇宙射线碰撞，

zillions of times already,

已经做过亿万次

via cosmic ray collisions.

同样的实验了。

But scientists should surely be precautionary

但是科学家们无疑需要

about experiments that generate conditions

对于那些会产生自然界中没有先例的状况

without precedent in the natural world.

的实验保持警惕。

Biologists should avoid release of potentially devastating

生物学家应当避免释放那些具有潜在毁灭性

genetically modified pathogens.

的转基因病原体。

And by the way, our special aversion

顺便提一下，我们之所以

to the risk of truly existential disasters

对于真实存在的灾难所带来的风险 尤其反感

depends on a philosophical and ethical question,

是取决于一个哲学和伦理问题，

and it's this:

这就是：

Consider two scenarios.

考虑一下两个场景。

Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.

场景A，90%的人类会被消灭。

Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.

场景B，所有人类都会被消灭。

How much worse is B than A?

那么场景B比场景A糟糕多少？

Some would say 10 percent worse.

有人可能会说糟糕10%。

The body count is 10 percent higher.

因为死亡人数要多全人类的10%。

But I claim that B is incomparably worse.

但我认为场景B是无比的糟糕。

As an astronomer, I can't believe

作为一个天文学家，我不能相信

that humans are the end of the story.

人类是这个故事的结局。

It is five billion years before the sun flares up,

宇宙诞生在太阳燃烧起来的 五十亿前年

and the universe may go on forever,

并且会永远持续下去，

so post-human evolution,

因此后人类时代的进化

here on Earth and far beyond,

不管是在地球 还是其它遥远的地方，

could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process

都可能会像达尔文进化论 所提出的一样旷日持久，

that's led to us, and even more wonderful.

并且甚至会更奇妙。

And indeed, future evolution will happen much faster,

而事实上，未来的进化会发生得更快，

on a technological timescale,

会在一个科技的时间尺度内，

not a natural selection timescale.

而不是在自然选择的时间尺度内。

So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,

所以无疑地，考虑到这些巨大的风险，

shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk

我们不应该承受哪怕是十亿分之一的

that human extinction would foreclose

导致人类灭绝的风险， 这样才有可能阻止

this immense potential.

这些巨大的潜在性。

Some scenarios that have been envisaged

有些设想中的场景

may indeed be science fiction,

可能的确只是在科幻小说中才会出现，

but others may be disquietingly real.

但其它的情节则可能变成 令人担忧的现实。

It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar

有一个值得一提的格言是

is not the same as the improbable,

不常见并不等于不可能发生，

and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University

事实上，我们在剑桥大学

are setting up a center to study how to mitigate

建立的一个如何去减轻

these existential risks.

这些真实存在的风险的研究中心 也是出于同样的考虑。

It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people

这一切看起来似乎只值得少数人花时间

to think about these potential disasters.

去估量这些潜在的灾难。

And we need all the help we can get from others,

但是我们需要尽可能地 从其他人身上获得帮助，

because we are stewards of a precious

因为我们是茫茫宇宙中这颗

pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,

珍贵的淡蓝色圆点的管理员，

a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.

这是一颗走过了5亿个世纪的星球。

And so let's not jeopardize that future.

因此让我们别再危害未来。

And I'd like to finish with a quote

我想引用一个 名叫彼得·梅达沃的伟大科学家的话

from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.

来结束今天的演讲。

I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind

我引用的这句话是： 为人类而敲响的钟声

are like the bells of Alpine cattle.

就像高山上的牛的钟声一样。

They are attached to our own necks,

它们系在我们的脖子上，

and it must be our fault if they do not make

如果它们不能发出和谐悦耳的声音，

a tuneful and melodious sound."

那么一定是我们的错。“

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）