Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity

Prevodilac: Maja Jovanovic Lektor: Ana Zivanovic-Nenadovic

Let's talk about billions.

Hajde da govorimo o milijardama.

Let's talk about

Hajde da govorimo

past and future billions.

o prošlim i budućim milijardama.

We know

Znamo

that about 106 billion people

da je oko 106 milijardi ljudi

have ever lived.

živelo na zemlji.

And we know that most of them are dead.

Znamo i da je većina njih umrla.

And we also know

Takođe znamo

that most of them live or lived in Asia.

da je većina živela ili živi u Aziji.

And we also know

Znamo takođe

that most of them were or are very poor --

da je većina njih bila ili jeste vrlo siromašna

did not live for very long.

i da nisu dugo živeli.

Let's talk about billions.

Hajde da govorimo o milijardama.

Let's talk about

Da pričamo o

the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth

195.000 milijardi dolara bogatstva

in the world today.

koje danas postoji na svetu.

We know that most of that wealth

Znamo da je većina tog bogatstva

was made after the year 1800.

nastala posle 1800.

And we know that most of it

Znamo i da je većina

is currently owned

danas u vlasništvu

by people we might call Westerners:

ljudi koje nazivamo zapadnjacima:

Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.

Evropljani, Amerikanci, Australijanci, Novozelanđani.

19 percent of the world's population today,

Iako čine 19% svetske populacije,

Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.

Zapadnjaci drže dve trećine svetskog bogatstva.

Economic historians

Istoričari ekonomije

call this "The Great Divergence."

ovo nazivaju "Velika divergencija".

And this slide here

I ovaj slajd ovde

is the best simplification

je najjednostavniji prikaz

of the Great Divergence story

priče o Velikoj divergenciji

I can offer you.

koji vam mogu pokazati.

It's basically two ratios

U suštini je čine dva odnosa

of per capita GDP,

Bruto-domaćeg proizvoda (BDP)

per capita gross domestic product,

po stanovniku,

so average income.

odnosno, prosečnog prihoda.

One, the red line,

Crvena linija predstavlja

is the ratio of British to Indian

odnos britanskog i indijskog

per capita income.

prihoda po stanovniku.

And the blue line

Plava linija predstavlja

is the ratio of American to Chinese.

odnos Amerike i Kine.

And this chart goes back to 1500.

Ovaj grafikon ide unazad do 1500. godine.

And you can see here

Ovde možete videti

that there's an exponential Great Divergence.

da postoji eksponencijala Velike divergencije.

They start off pretty close together.

Počinju na sličnoj razini.

In fact, in 1500,

Zapravo, 1500. godine,

the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.

prosečan Kinez je bio bogatiji od prosečnog Amerikanca i Kanađanina.

When you get to the 1970s,

Kada dođete do 1970-ih,

which is where this chart ends,

gde je kraj grafikonu,

the average Briton is more than 10 times richer

prosečan Britanac je više od 10 puta bogatiji

than the average Indian.

od prosečnog Indijca.

And that's allowing

Ovo uključuje

for differences in the cost of living.

i razlike u troškovima života.

It's based on purchasing power parity.

Bazira se na paritetu kupovne moći.

The average American

Prosečan Amerikanac

is nearly 20 times richer

je skoro 20 puta bogatiji

than the average Chinese

od prosečnog Kineza

by the 1970s.

do 1970-ih.

So why?

Ali zašto?

This wasn't just an economic story.

Ovo nije bila samo priča o ekonomiji.

If you take the 10 countries

Ako uzmete 10 zemalja

that went on to become

koje su kasnije postale

the Western empires,

zapadne imperije,

in 1500 they were really quite tiny --

1500. su one bile prilično male.

five percent of the world's land surface,

Držale su 5% svetske kopnene površine,

16 percent of its population,

16% populacije

maybe 20 percent of its income.

i možda 20% svetskog prihoda.

By 1913,

Već 1913.

these 10 countries, plus the United States,

ovih 10 zemalja, plus SAD,

controlled vast global empires --

držale su ogromne globalne imperije --

58 percent of the world's territory,

58% svetske teritorije,

about the same percentage of its population,

skoro isti procenat populacije

and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share

i ogroman udeo, skoro ¾,

of global economic output.

svetske ekonomske proizvodnje.

And notice, most of that went to the motherland,

Većina toga je odlazila u matice,

to the imperial metropoles,

u metropole imperija,

not to their colonial possessions.

ne u kolonijalne posede.

Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --

Za ovo ne možete kriviti samo imperijalizam,

though many people have tried to do so --

iako su mnogi pokušali,

for two reasons.

i to iz dva razloga.

One, empire was the least original thing

Prvo, imperije nikako nisu nov izum

that the West did after 1500.

koji je zapad smislio posle 1500.

Everybody did empire.

Svi su pravili imperije.

They beat preexisting Oriental empires

Nadmašili su ranije orijentalne imperije

like the Mughals and the Ottomans.

poput mogulske i otomanske.

So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation

Imperije, dakle, i nisu sjajno objašnjenje

for the Great Divergence.

za Veliku divergenciju.

In any case, as you may remember,

Setite se

the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,

da Velika divergencija dostiže vrhunac 1970-ih,

some considerable time after decolonization.

dosta nakon dekolonizacija.

This is not a new question.

Ovo pitanje nije novo.

Samuel Johnson,

Semjuel Džonson,

the great lexicographer,

veliki leksikograf,

[posed] it through his character Rasselas

govorio je o ovom kroz lik Raselasa

in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"

u svom romanu "Raselas, princ Abisinije",

published in 1759.

štampane 1759.

"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;

"Kojim sredstvima su Evropljani onda moćni;

or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa

zašto, ako oni tako lako mogu doći u Aziju i Afriku

for trade or conquest,

radi trgovine ili osvajanja,

cannot the Asiaticks and Africans

ne mogu Azijati i Afrikanci

invade their coasts,

napasti njihove obale,

plant colonies in their ports,

razviti kolonije u njihovim lukama

and give laws to their natural princes?

i nametnuti zakone njihovim prirodnim prinčevima?

The same wind that carries them back

Zar ne bi isti vetar koji njih vraća,

would bring us thither?"

nas odveo do njih?"

That's a great question.

Ovo je odlično pitanje.

And you know what,

I znate šta,

it was also being asked at roughly the same time

skoro su ga istovremeno postavljali

by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --

i Ostali - oni koji nisu sa zapada,

like Ibrahim Muteferrika,

poput Ibrahima Muteferika,

an Ottoman official,

otomanskog zvaničnika

the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,

koji je sa velikim zakašnjenjem doveo štampu

to the Ottoman Empire --

u Otomansko carstvo.

who said in a book published in 1731,

U knjizi iz 1731. on pita:

"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past

"Zašto hrišćanske nacije koje su bile tako slabe u prošlosti

compared with Muslim nations

u poređenju sa muslimanskim

begin to dominate so many lands in modern times

počinju da dominiraju tolikim zemljama u moderno doba,

and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"

pa čak i pobeđuju nekada slavne otomanske armije?"

Unlike Rasselas,

Za razliku od Raselasa,

Muteferrika had an answer to that question,

Muteferika je imao odgovor na to pitanje

which was correct.

i bio je u pravu.

He said it was "because they have laws and rules

Rekao je da je to "zbog toga što imaju zakone i pravila

invented by reason."

koje je izmislio razum."

It's not geography.

To nije geografija.

You may think we can explain the Great Divergence

Možda mislite da Veliku divergenciju možemo objasniti

in terms of geography.

u okvirima geografije.

We know that's wrong,

Znamo da to je to pogrešno

because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century

jer smo napravili dva velika prirodna eksperimenta u 20. veku

to see if geography mattered more than institutions.

da vidimo da li je geografija važnija od institucija.

We took all the Germans,

Uzeli smo sve Nemce,

we divided them roughly in two,

podelili ih na otprilike pola,

and we gave the ones in the East communism,

i onima na istoku dali komunizam,

and you see the result.

i vidite rezultat.

Within an incredibly short period of time,

Za neverovatno kratko vreme

people living in the German Democratic Republic

ljudi iz Nemačke Demokratske Republike,

produced Trabants, the Trabbi,

proizveli su Trabanta, tzv. Trabija,

one of the world's worst ever cars,

jednog od najgorih automobila ikada,

while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.

dok su oni na zapadu proizveli Mercedes-Benc.

If you still don't believe me,

Ako mi i dalje ne verujete,

we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.

eksperiment smo izvršili i na Korejskom poluostrvu.

And we decided we'd take Koreans

Odlučili smo da uzmemo Korejce

in roughly the same geographical place

sa otprilike istog geografskog područja

with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,

sa istom osnovnom tradicionalnom kulturom,

and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.

podelili ih na dve grupe, i dali onima sa severa komunizam.

And the result is an even bigger divergence

Rezultat je čak veća divergencija

in a very short space of time

u još kraćem vremenskom periodu

than happened in Germany.

nego u Nemačkoj.

Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,

Nisu se toliko razlikovali u dizajnu uniformi za graničnike,

but in almost every other respect,

ali u skoro u svakom drugom smislu,

it's a huge divergence.

divergencija je ogromna.

Which leads me to think

Što me dovodi do zaključka

that neither geography nor national character,

da niti geografija niti nacionalni karakter,

popular explanations for this kind of thing,

popularna objašnjenja za ovakve stvari,

are really significant.

nisu zapravo važni.

It's the ideas.

Važne su ideje.

It's the institutions.

Institucije.

This must be true

Ovo je sigurno istina

because a Scotsman said it.

jer je tako rekao jedan Škot.

And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.

I mislim da sam jedini Škot ovde na TED-u u Edinburgu.

So let me just explain to you

Dozvolite da objasnim

that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.

da je najpametniji čovek na svetu bio Škot.

He was Adam Smith --

To je bio Adam Smit --

not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --

ne Bili Konoli, niti Šon Koneri --

though he is very smart indeed.

iako jeste vrlo pametan.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Smith -- and I want you to go

Smit -- I želim da odete

and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;

i poklonite se pred njegovom statuom u Rojal Majlu;

it's a wonderful statue --

statua je odlična --

Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"

Smit je u knjizi "Bogatstvo naroda",

published in 1776 --

štampanoj 1776. --

that's the most important thing that happened that year ...

ovo je najvažnija stvar koja se desila te godine...

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You bet.

Naravno.

There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...

Bio je omanji lokalni problem u nekim našim kolonijama, ali...

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

"China seems to have been long stationary,

"Čini se da je Kina već dugo stacionarna

and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches

i verovatno je odavno stekla onu količinu bogatstva

which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.

koja je u skladu sa prirodom njenih zakona i institucija.

But this complement may be much inferior

Ali je ova količina možda inferiorna

to what, with other laws and institutions,

u odnosu na to šta bi, uz druge zakone i institucije,

the nature of its soil, climate, and situation

priroda zemlje, klime i situacije,

might admit of."

pokazali mogućim."

That is so right and so cool.

Ovo je tako tačno i kul.

And he said it such a long time ago.

I rekao je ovo toliko davno.

But you know, this is a TED audience,

Ali znate, ovo je TED publika,

and if I keep talking about institutions,

i ako nastavim da pričam o institucijama,

you're going to turn off.

prestaćete da me pratite.

So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.

Zato ću prevesti ovo u jezik koji razumete.

Let's call them the killer apps.

Hajde da ih nazovemo esencijalnim aplikacijama.

I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps

Želim da objasnim da postoji 6 esencijalnih aplikacija

that set the West apart from the rest.

koje su udaljile zapad od ostatka sveta.

And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,

Slični su vašim aplikacijama na telefonu,

in the sense that they look quite simple.

u smislu da izgledaju vrlo jednostavno.

They're just icons; you click on them.

One su samo ikonice; samo kliknete na njih.

But behind the icon, there's complex code.

Ali iza ikonica stoji kompleksan kod.

It's the same with institutions.

Isto je sa institucijama.

There are six

Postoji šest

which I think explain the Great Divergence.

koje mislim da objašnjavaju Veliku divergenciju.

One, competition.

Prva je konkurencija.

Two, the scientific revolution.

Druga je naučna revolucija.

Three, property rights.

Treća, zakoni svojine.

Four, modern medicine.

Četvrta je moderna medicina.

Five, the consumer society.

Peta je potrošačko društvo.

And six, the work ethic.

I šesta je radna etika.

You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,

Možete probati da vidite da li sam neku propustio

or try and boil it down to just four,

ili ih možete svesti na samo 4,

but you'll lose.

ali ćete izgubiti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,

Dopustite da ukratko objasnim na šta mislim,

synthesizing the work of many economic historians

kombinujući rad mnogih istoričara ekonomije

in the process.

tokom procesa.

Competition means,

Konkurencija znači

not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,

ne samo da su postojale na stotine političkih jedinica u Evropi 1500.

but within each of these units,

već da je u samim jedinicama

there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.

bilo konkurencije među korporacijama i vladarima.

The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,

Predak moderne korporacije, Korporacija grada Londona,

existed in the 12th century.

postojao je u 12. veku.

Nothing like this existed in China,

Ništa slično nije bilo u Kini

where there was one monolithic state

gde je postojala jedna jedinstvena država

covering a fifth of humanity,

koja je pokrivala petinu čovečanstva

and anyone with any ambition

i svako sa bilo kojom ambicijom

had to pass one standardized examination,

je morao da položi standardizovan test

which took three days and was very difficult

koji je trajao tri dana i bio vrlo težak.

and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters

Uključivao je pamćenje ogromnog broja karaktera

and very complex Confucian essay writing.

i pisanje vrlo kompleksnih konfučijanskih eseja.

The scientific revolution was different

Naučna revolucija se razlikovala

from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world

od nauke koja je dostignuta u orijentalnom svetu

in a number of crucial ways,

na mnogo načina

the most important being

od kojih je najvažniji bio

that, through the experimental method,

da je putem eksperimentalne metode

it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.

dao ljudima kontrolu nad prirodom kako ranije nije bilo moguće.

Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application

Primer: Bendžamin Robinson je izvršio neverovatnu primenu

of Newtonian physics to ballistics.

Njutnove fizike na balistiku.

Once you do that,

Kada to uradite

your artillery becomes accurate.

vaša artiljerija postaje precizna.

Think of what that means.

Razmislite šta je ovo značilo.

That really was a killer application.

To je stvarno bila ubistvena aplikacija.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.

Istovremeno, nigde se drugde ne dešava naučna revolucija.

The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,

Otomansko carstvo je bilo blizu Evrope,

but there's no scientific revolution there.

ali nije imalo naučnu revoluciju.

In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,

Zapravo, uništili su Taki al-Donovu opservatoriju

because it's considered blasphemous

jer su je smatrali bogohulnom

to inquire into the mind of God.

jer ispituje Božji um.

Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;

Zakoni svojine: nije u pitanju demokratija, narode,

it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.

već postojanje zakonskog prava na osnovu zakona o imovini.

That's what makes the difference

To je ono što razlikuje

between North America and South America.

Severnu i Južnu Ameriku.

You could turn up in North America

Možete se pojaviti u Severnoj Americi,

having signed a deed of indenture

gde ste potpisali sporazum

saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.

i rekli: "Radiću bez nadoknade 5 godina,

You just have to feed me."

samo za hranu."

But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.

Ali na kraju ćete dobiti 100 jutara zemlje.

That's the land grant

Ovo je poklon nekretnina

on the bottom half of the slide.

na donjoj polovini slajda.

That's not possible in Latin America

Ovo nije moguće u Latinskoj Americi

where land is held onto

gde zemlju drži

by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.

malobrojna elita koja potiče od konkvistadora.

And you can see here the huge divergence

I ovde možete videti ogromnu divergenciju

that happens in property ownership between North and South.

kod vlasništva nekretnina na severu i jugu.

Most people in rural North America

Većina ljudi iz ruralnog dela Severne Amerike

owned some land by 1900.

je posedovala neku zemlju do 1900.

Hardly anyone in South America did.

U Južnoj Americi skoro niko nije.

That's another killer app.

Ovo je još jedna esencijalna aplikacija.

Modern medicine in the late 19th century

Moderna medicina je krajem 19. veka

began to make major breakthroughs

počela da pravi veliki prodor

against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.

u borbi protiv zaraznih bolesti koje su ubijale mnoge.

And this was another killer app --

I ovo je bila esencijalna aplikacija --

the very opposite of a killer,

koja je davala život

because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.

jer je udvostručila, a potom i više nego udvostručila životni vek čoveka.

It even did that

Čak je to učinila

in the European empires.

u evropskim imperijama.

Even in places like Senegal,

Čak i u mestima poput Senegala,

beginning in the early 20th century,

počevši od 20. veka,

there were major breakthroughs in public health,

veliki napredak je učinjen u javnom zdravstvu

and life expectancy began to rise.

i životni vek je počeo da raste.

It doesn't rise any faster

Ništa brže nije rastao

after these countries become independent.

nakon što su ove zemlje dobile nezavisnost.

The empires weren't all bad.

Imperije nisu bile baš toliko loše.

The consumer society is what you need

Potrebno vam je potrošačko društvo

for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.

da bi industrijska revolucija imala poentu.

You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.

Potrebni su ljudi koji kupuju gomilu odeće.

You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;

Svi ste kupili neku odeću u poslednjih mesec dana.

I guarantee it.

Garantujem.

That's the consumer society,

To je potrošačko društvo

and it propels economic growth

i ono stimuliše ekonomski rast

more than even technological change itself.

više od tehnoloških promena.

Japan was the first non-Western society

Japan je bio prvo društvo van zapada

to embrace it.

koje je ovo usvojilo.

The alternative,

Alternativa,

which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,

koju je predlagao Mahatma Gandi,

was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.

bila je trajna institucionalizacija siromaštva.

Very few Indians today

Danas mali broj Indijaca

wish that India had gone down

misli da je trebalo krenuti

Mahatma Gandhi's road.

putem Mahatme Gandija.

Finally, the work ethic.

Na kraju, radna etika.

Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.

Maks Veber je mislio da je ovo bilo specifično za protestante.

He was wrong.

Pogrešio je.

Any culture can get the work ethic

Bilo koja kultura može prisvojiti radnu etiku

if the institutions are there

ako postoje institucije

to create the incentive to work.

koje će stvoriti podsticaj za rad.

We know this

Ovo znamo

because today the work ethic

jer danas radna etika

is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.

nije samo fenomen protestanata sa zapada.

In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.

Zapravo, zapad je izgubio radnu etiku.

Today, the average Korean

Danas prosečan Korejac

works a thousand hours more a year

godišnje radi 1000 sati više

than the average German --

od prosečnog Nemca --

a thousand.

hiljadu.

And this is part

I ovo je deo

of a really extraordinary phenomenon,

vrlo neobičnog fenomena

and that is the end of the Great Divergence.

a to je kraj Velike divergencije.

Who's got the work ethic now?

Ko sad ima radnu etiku?

Take a look at mathematical attainment

Pogledajte rezultate takmičenja iz matematike

by 15 year-olds.

koja su radili 15-godišnjaci.

At the top of the international league table

Na vrhu međunarodne tabele,

according to the latest PISA study,

prema poslednjim studijama "PISA",

is the Shanghai district of China.

nalazi se šangajska oblast Kine

The gap between Shanghai

Jaz između Šangaja

and the United Kingdom and the United States

i Velike Britanije i SAD-a

is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.

je kao razlika između Britanije i SAD-a

and Albania and Tunisia.

naspram Albanije i Tunisa.

You probably assume

Verovatno pretpostavljate

that because the iPhone was designed in California

da pošto je "iPhone" dizajniran u Kaliforniji,

but assembled in China

ali sklopljen u Kini

that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.

da zapad i dalje vodi u tehnološkim inovacijama.

You're wrong.

Grešite.

In terms of patents,

Kod patenata

there's no question that the East is ahead.

nema pogovora da istok vodi.

Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,

Ne samo da je Japan već neko vreme na čelu,

South Korea has gone into third place,

već je Južna Koreja dostigla treće mesto,

and China is just about to overtake Germany.

a Kina samo što nije prestigla Nemačku.

Why?

Zašto?

Because the killer apps can be downloaded.

Jer esencijalne aplikacije se mogu preuzeti.

It's open source.

One su otvorenog tipa.

Any society can adopt these institutions,

Bilo koje društvo može usvojiti ove institucije,

and when they do,

a kada to učine,

they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --

postižu ono što je zapad uspeo nakon 1500.

only faster.

samo brže.

This is the Great Reconvergence,

Ovo je Velika rekonvergencija,

and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.

i najveća priča vašeg života.

Because it's on your watch that this is happening.

Jer ste njeni svedoci.

It's our generation

Naša generacija je ta

that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.

koja će biti svedok kraja dominacije zapada.

The average American used to be more than 20 times richer

Prosečan Amerikanac je bio više od 20 puta bogatiji

than the average Chinese.

od prosečnog Kineza.

Now it's just five times,

Sada je 5 puta,

and soon it will be 2.5 times.

a uskoro ce biti 2, 5 puta.

So I want to end with three questions

Zato sam hteo da završim sa tri pitanja

for the future billions,

o budućim milijardama

just ahead of 2016,

do 2016. godine,

when the United States will lose its place

kada će SAD predati prvo mesto

as number one economy to China.

u ekonomiji Kini.

The first is, can you delete these apps,

Prvo: Da li se ove aplikaciju mogu izbrisati?

and are we in the process of doing so

Da li smo mi u tom procesu

in the Western world?

na zapadu?

The second question is,

Drugo pitanje je

does the sequencing of the download matter?

da li je redosled preuzimanja važan?

And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?

I da li bi Afrika mogla da pogreši u ovom redosledu?

One obvious implication of modern economic history

Očigledna implikacija modernih istoričara ekonomije

is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy

jeste da je vrlo teško preći u demokratiju

before you've established

pre nego što si ustanovio

secure private property rights.

pouzdane zakone o privatnom vlasništvu.

Warning: that may not work.

Upozorenje: to možda neće raditi.

And third, can China do without

I treće, može li Kina

killer app number three?

bez esencijalne aplikacije broj tri?

That's the one that John Locke systematized

To je pitanje koje je Džon Lok sistematizovao

when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights

kada je rekao da je sloboda ukorenjena u pravima privatnog vlasništva

and the protection of law.

i zaštiti zakona.

That's the basis

Ovo je osnova

for the Western model

zapadnog modela

of representative government.

predstavničke vlasti.

Now this picture shows the demolition

Ova slika pokazuje uništavanje studija

of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio

kineskog umetnika Ai Veiveia

in Shanghai earlier this year.

u Šangaju ranije ove godine.

He's now free again,

Sada je ponovo slobodan

having been detained, as you know, for some time.

nakon privremenog pritvora, kao što znate.

But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.

Ali mislim da njegov studio nije obnovljen.

Winston Churchill once defined civilization

Vinston Čerčil je jednom definisao civilizaciju

in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.

na predavanju iz sudbonosne 1938.

And I think these words really nail it:

I mislim da je uspeo da pogodi suštinu:

"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.

"To znači društvo osnovano na mišljenju civila.

It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,

Da su nasilje, vladavina ratnika i despotskih vođa,

the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,

uslovi logora i rata, pobune i tiranije

give place to parliaments where laws are made,

zamenjene parlamentom u kom nastaju zakoni

and independent courts of justice

i nezavisnim sudovima

in which over long periods those laws are maintained.

u kojima se ti zakoni primenjuju.

That is civilization --

To je civilizacija --

and in its soil grow continually

i na njenom tlu neprekidno rastu

freedom, comfort and culture,"

sloboda, udobnost i kultura",

what all TEDsters care about most.

ono o čemu TED-ovci najviše brinu.

"When civilization reigns in any country,

"Kada civilizacija vlada zemljom,

a wider and less harassed life

ona pruža širinu i smireniji život

is afforded to the masses of the people."

ljudima."

That's so true.

Ovo je istina.

I don't think the decline of Western civilization

Ne mislim da je propast zapadne civilizacije

is inevitable,

neizbežan

because I don't think history operates

jer ne mislim da istorija funkcioniše

in this kind of life-cycle model,

po ovom tipu životnog ciklusa,

beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's

koje je predivno ilustrovao Tomas Kol

"Course of Empire" paintings.

na slikama "Put imperije".

That's not the way history works.

Istorija ne funkcioniše tako.

That's not the way the West rose,

To nije kako se zapad uzdigao,

and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.

i ne mislim da će tako pasti.

The West may collapse very suddenly.

Zapad može pasti vrlo iznenadno.

Complex civilizations do that,

To se dešava kompleksnim civilizacijama

because they operate, most of the time,

jer uglavnom funkcionišu

on the edge of chaos.

na ivici haosa.

That's one of the most profound insights

Ovo je jedan od najdubljih uvida

to come out of the historical study of complex institutions

proisteklih iz istorijskih studija kompleksnih institucija

like civilizations.

poput civilizacija.

No, we may hang on,

Ipak se možemo održati

despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,

uprkos ogromnom teretu duga koji smo nagomilali,

despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic

uprkos dokazu da smo izgubili radnu etiku

and other parts of our historical mojo.

i drugih istorijskih amajlija.

But one thing is for sure,

Ali je jedno sigurno,

the Great Divergence

Velika divergencija

is over, folks.

je došla do kraja, narode.

Thanks very much.

Veliko hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Bruno Giussani: Niall,

Bruno Đusani: Najl,

I am just curious

interesuje me

about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,

tvoje mišljenje o drugoj regiji sveta koja cveta

which is Latin America.

a to je Latinska Amerika.

What's your view on that?

Šta misliš o tome?

Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking

Najl Ferguson: Ja zapravo ne govorim samo

about the rise of the East;

o usponu istoka;

I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,

Govorim o usponu svega što nije zapad,

and that includes South America.

što uključuje i Južnu Ameriku.

I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,

Jednom sam pitao kolegu sa Harvarda

"Hey, is South America part of the West?"

"Ej, je li Južna Amerika deo Zapada?"

He was an expert in Latin American history.

On je bio ekspert za istoriju Latinske Amerike.

He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."

Rekao je: "Ne znam. Moraću da razmislim o tome."

That tells you something really important.

Ovo govori nešto važno.

I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,

Mislim da ako pogledate šta se dešava posebno u Brazilu,

but also Chile,

ali i Čileu,

which was in many ways the one that led the way

koji je po mnogo čemu predvodio put

in transforming the institutions of economic life,

u transformisanju ekonomskih institucija,

there's a very bright future indeed.

da ih čeka svetla budućnost.

So my story really is

Tako da je moja priča zapravo

as much about that convergence in the Americas

isto toliko o konvergenciji u Amerikama,

as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.

koliko o konvergenciji u Evroaziji.

BG: And there is this impression

BĐ: I stiče se utisak

that North America and Europe

da Severna Amerika i Evropa

are not really paying attention

ne obraćaju pažnju

to these trends.

na ove trendove.

Mostly they're worried about each other.

Uglavnom se bave jedni drugima.

The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.

Amerikanci misle da će evropski model sutra propasti.

The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.

Evropljani misle da će američke partije sutra eksplodirati.

And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.

I deluje da je to jedino što ih zanima u poslednje vreme.

NF: I think the fiscal crisis

NF: Mislim da fiskalna kriza

that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --

koju vidimo u razvijenom zapadu danas, s obe strane Atlantika,

is essentially the same thing

je u suštini ista stvar,

taking different forms

samo u drugom obliku,

in terms of political culture.

u smislu političke kulture.

And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --

I to je kriza koja ima svoj strukturni aspekt

it's partly to do with demographics.

koji delom ima veze sa demografijom.

But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis

Ali naravno i sa velikom krizom

that followed excessive leverage,

koja je pratila preteranu moć,

excessive borrowing in the private sector.

preterane pozajmice u privatnom sektoru.

That crisis,

Ta kriza,

which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,

koja je privukla toliko pažnje, uključujući moju,

I think is an epiphenomenon.

mislim da je površni fenomen.

The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,

Finansijska kriza je relativno mali istorijski fenomen,

which has just accelerated

koji je samo ubrzao

this huge shift,

ovu veliku promenu

which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.

kojom se završava 500 godina dominacije zapada.

I think that's its real importance.

Mislim da je u tome njegova prava važnost.

BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)

BĐ: Najl, hvala ti. (NF: Hvala, Bruno)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)