Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity

翻译人员: Lili Liang 校对人员: Angelia King

Let's talk about billions.

我们来说说数以亿计

Let's talk about

我们来说说

past and future billions.

过去和将来的数以亿计

We know

众所周知

that about 106 billion people

在地球上生活过的人

have ever lived.

有1060亿

And we know that most of them are dead.

当然大多数人已经不在人世了

And we also know

我们还知道

that most of them live or lived in Asia.

他们大多数人生活在或曾经生活在亚洲

And we also know

我们还知道

that most of them were or are very poor --

他们大多数人非常贫穷

did not live for very long.

寿命不长

Let's talk about billions.

我们来说说数以亿计

Let's talk about

我们来说说

the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth

现今世界

in the world today.

高达195万亿美元的财富

We know that most of that wealth

这些财富的大部分

was made after the year 1800.

是从1800年开始被创造的

And we know that most of it

而现在 这些财富的

is currently owned

主要拥有者

by people we might call Westerners:

是西方人

Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.

欧洲人 北美人和澳洲人

19 percent of the world's population today,

仅占世界人口19%的西方人

Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.

拥有了全球三分之二的财富

Economic historians

经济历史学家

call this "The Great Divergence."

称之为“大分流”

And this slide here

这个幻灯片

is the best simplification

能够最好地展示

of the Great Divergence story

简化版的

I can offer you.

“大分流”故事

It's basically two ratios

上面是两个

of per capita GDP,

人均GDP比率

per capita gross domestic product,

也就是人均国内生产总值

so average income.

平均收入

One, the red line,

红色的那条线

is the ratio of British to Indian

代表英国和印度的

per capita income.

人均收入之比

And the blue line

而蓝色那条

is the ratio of American to Chinese.

则是美国与中国的人均收入之比

And this chart goes back to 1500.

这幅图追溯到1500年

And you can see here

大家可以看到

that there's an exponential Great Divergence.

大分流的走势

They start off pretty close together.

这两条曲线一开始非常接近

In fact, in 1500,

事实上 在1500年

the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.

中国人普遍比美国人富有

When you get to the 1970s,

而到了二十世纪70年代

which is where this chart ends,

也就是这幅图时间的结点

the average Briton is more than 10 times richer

英国人平均比印度人

than the average Indian.

富十倍

And that's allowing

这就产生了

for differences in the cost of living.

生活消费的差异

It's based on purchasing power parity.

这是建立在购买力对等基础上的

The average American

到了二十世纪70年代

is nearly 20 times richer

美国人平均

than the average Chinese

比中国人

by the 1970s.

富二十倍

So why?

这是为什么？

This wasn't just an economic story.

这并不仅仅只是一个经济问题

If you take the 10 countries

看看这十个

that went on to become

后来成为

the Western empires,

帝国的西方国家

in 1500 they were really quite tiny --

在1500年时 这些国家都很小

five percent of the world's land surface,

仅占全球土地面积的5%

16 percent of its population,

人口仅占世界人口的16%

maybe 20 percent of its income.

而收入在全球仅占20%

By 1913,

到了1913年

these 10 countries, plus the United States,

包括美国在内的这十个国家

controlled vast global empires --

控制了全球大片土地

58 percent of the world's territory,

占据了全球58%的势力范围

about the same percentage of its population,

而人口也占到了世界人口的58%左右

and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share

创造了全球

of global economic output.

近四分之三的财富

And notice, most of that went to the motherland,

请注意 大部分财富都流入了这些国家

to the imperial metropoles,

流入了帝国的大都市里

not to their colonial possessions.

而不是殖民地

Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --

你不能仅仅责怪帝国主义

though many people have tried to do so --

尽管很多人这么做

for two reasons.

原因有二

One, empire was the least original thing

第一 1500年以后

that the West did after 1500.

帝国到处都是

Everybody did empire.

大家都建立帝国

They beat preexisting Oriental empires

之前建立的东方帝国被打败了

like the Mughals and the Ottomans.

例如莫卧儿帝国和奥斯曼帝国

So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation

所以 大分流并不见得

for the Great Divergence.

是帝国造成的

In any case, as you may remember,

不知你们是否记得

the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,

到了二十世纪七十年代

some considerable time after decolonization.

大分流在殖民时期结束后又过了很长一段时间最终走到了尽头

This is not a new question.

这不是一个新问题了

Samuel Johnson,

著名词典编纂家

the great lexicographer,

塞缪尔·约翰

[posed] it through his character Rasselas

通过他1759年所著小说

in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"

《幸福谷－－拉塞拉斯王子的故事》中的人物拉塞拉斯

published in 1759.

提出了这个问题

"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;

“ 欧洲人何以如此强大？

or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa

他们为何能够轻而易举地来到亚洲和非洲

for trade or conquest,

进行贸易或征服

cannot the Asiaticks and Africans

而亚洲人和非洲人

invade their coasts,

为何无力入侵他们的海岸线

plant colonies in their ports,

化其通商口岸为殖民地

and give laws to their natural princes?

并控制他们的王子呢？

The same wind that carries them back

既然是同一股风 为何它只将他们送回家

would bring us thither?"

却将我们送去他们那里？”

That's a great question.

这个问题问得很好

And you know what,

无独有偶

it was also being asked at roughly the same time

几乎在同一时期

by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --

西方国家之外的人

like Ibrahim Muteferrika,

其中有伊布拉希姆·穆特费黎加

an Ottoman official,

一位奥斯曼帝国的大官

the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,

也是后来将印刷术

to the Ottoman Empire --

引入奥斯曼帝国的人

who said in a book published in 1731,

在他1731年出版的一本书里

"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past

他说：“ 与穆斯林国家相比，

compared with Muslim nations

基督教国家原先显得弱不经风，

begin to dominate so many lands in modern times

但他们何以在现代统治了大片土地，

and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"

甚至战胜了曾经盛极一时的奥斯曼帝国？”

Unlike Rasselas,

和拉塞拉斯不同

Muteferrika had an answer to that question,

穆特费黎加对问题做了回答

which was correct.

答案还是正确的

He said it was "because they have laws and rules

他说：“因为他们制定了

invented by reason."

合理的法律法规。”

It's not geography.

这跟地理无关

You may think we can explain the Great Divergence

你们可能认为我们能从地理的角度

in terms of geography.

解释大分流

We know that's wrong,

这个思路是错误的

because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century

我们在20世纪进行了两次自然试验

to see if geography mattered more than institutions.

来证明 地理和制度究竟哪个作用更大

We took all the Germans,

我们把德国

we divided them roughly in two,

分成了两部分

and we gave the ones in the East communism,

在东德推行共产主义

and you see the result.

结果大家都看到了

Within an incredibly short period of time,

在极短的一段时间里

people living in the German Democratic Republic

东德人

produced Trabants, the Trabbi,

生产了卫星牌汽车

one of the world's worst ever cars,

世界上性能最差的车型之一

while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.

而西德人却生产出了梅赛德斯奔驰

If you still don't believe me,

这如果还不足以说明问题

we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.

我们又在朝鲜半岛进行了试验

And we decided we'd take Koreans

我们决定

in roughly the same geographical place

将生活在同一地理位置

with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,

拥有共同文化习俗的朝鲜人

and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.

分为两部分 并在北朝鲜实行共产主义

And the result is an even bigger divergence

结果 朝韩两方

in a very short space of time

在更短的时间内

than happened in Germany.

出现了大分流，比起德国的更甚

Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,

我承认 他们边防军制服的款式区别不大

but in almost every other respect,

但在其它方面

it's a huge divergence.

双方存在极大差异

Which leads me to think

这让我不得不想到

that neither geography nor national character,

地理 国家特征

popular explanations for this kind of thing,

以及其它主流解释

are really significant.

都站不住脚

It's the ideas.

真正发挥作用的是思想

It's the institutions.

是制度

This must be true

这千真万确

because a Scotsman said it.

这可是一位苏格兰人说的

And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.

我想我是这里唯一的苏格兰人

So let me just explain to you

我来解释一下

that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.

世界上最聪明的人是一个苏格兰人

He was Adam Smith --

他就是亚当·斯密

not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --

不是比利·康诺利或肖恩·康纳利

though he is very smart indeed.

虽然他也很聪明

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

Smith -- and I want you to go

斯密 你们都应该

and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;

到他在皇家麦尔大道的雕像前鞠一躬

it's a wonderful statue --

这座雕像非常宏伟

Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"

斯密在1776年发表了

published in 1776 --

《国富论》

that's the most important thing that happened that year ...

这可是当年最了不起的历史事件

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

You bet.

难道不是吗

There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...

虽然当时我们一些次要的殖民地出了点问题

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

"China seems to have been long stationary,

他说：“中国似乎已经停滞很久了，

and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches

也许在很久以前 中国创造财富的能力已经发挥到了极致，

which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.

而这取决于该国法律和制度的性质。

But this complement may be much inferior

但是 如果中国采用其它形式的法律和制度

to what, with other laws and institutions,

那么这一能力

the nature of its soil, climate, and situation

反而无法在同样的土壤，气候和条件下

might admit of."

得到完全发挥。”

That is so right and so cool.

这说得一点不假

And he said it such a long time ago.

在那么久以前 他就说出了这番话

But you know, this is a TED audience,

但是 我面对的是TED观众

and if I keep talking about institutions,

如果我继续谈论制度

you're going to turn off.

你们可能就听不下去了

So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.

所以 我要把它翻译成通俗易懂的语言

Let's call them the killer apps.

我们就把这些制度称作“致命” 应用程序吧

I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps

我会逐一介绍六个“致命”应用程序

that set the West apart from the rest.

解释它们如何让西方脱颖而出

And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,

它们就像你手机上的应用程序

in the sense that they look quite simple.

因为它们都很容易上手

They're just icons; you click on them.

它们就像一个个图标 手指一点就行了

But behind the icon, there's complex code.

然而在图标背后 则是复杂的程序

It's the same with institutions.

制度也是如此

There are six

我认为 这六个应用程序

which I think explain the Great Divergence.

能够解释大分流的形成

One, competition.

第一 竞争

Two, the scientific revolution.

第二 科技革命

Three, property rights.

第三 产权

Four, modern medicine.

第四 现代医药

Five, the consumer society.

第五 消费者导向社会

And six, the work ethic.

第六 职业道德

You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,

你可以玩这个游戏看看我有没有漏掉什么

or try and boil it down to just four,

或者试试看能不能砍掉两个

but you'll lose.

但是你输定了

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,

通过综合经济历史学家的观点

synthesizing the work of many economic historians

我来简短解释一下

in the process.

我的意思

Competition means,

竞争意味着

not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,

1500年 欧洲不仅拥有100多个政治单位

but within each of these units,

而在这些单位中

there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.

既有组织间的竞争 又有主权国家之间的竞争

The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,

公司集团的鼻祖 伦敦金融城集团

existed in the 12th century.

存在于12世纪

Nothing like this existed in China,

中国没有这样的制度

where there was one monolithic state

中国的人口占世界总人口的五分之一

covering a fifth of humanity,

国家实现中央集权制度

and anyone with any ambition

胸怀大志的人

had to pass one standardized examination,

必须通过统一的科举考试

which took three days and was very difficult

一考就是三天 考试难度很大

and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters

要求记忆大量汉字

and very complex Confucian essay writing.

还要写繁冗复杂的儒家文章

The scientific revolution was different

科技革命与东方的科学成就

from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world

在很多重要方面

in a number of crucial ways,

都有不同

the most important being

其中最大的不同之处

that, through the experimental method,

就是科技革命通过实验性方法

it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.

让人们用前所未见的方式掌控自然

Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application

本杰明·罗宾斯将牛顿物理学运用到弹道研究

of Newtonian physics to ballistics.

就是个很好的例子

Once you do that,

这么做

your artillery becomes accurate.

能够保证炮弹打击的精准度

Think of what that means.

这意味着什么

That really was a killer application.

这个应用程序果然厉害

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.

同时 科技革命只发生在西方

The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,

奥斯曼帝国离欧洲并不远

but there's no scientific revolution there.

而这里并没有发生科技革命

In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,

该国政府拆毁了科学家达兹·艾-丁的天文观测台

because it's considered blasphemous

认为该观测台窥视上帝

to inquire into the mind of God.

亵渎圣灵

Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;

产权 而不是民主 同志们

it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.

通过法律管理私有知识产权

That's what makes the difference

北美洲和南美洲

between North America and South America.

为何如此不同

You could turn up in North America

你到北美洲去

having signed a deed of indenture

签一个契约

saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.

说：“我愿意无偿工作五年。

You just have to feed me."

你只要管我饭吃就行。”

But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.

而五年之后 你得到了一百公顷的土地

That's the land grant

这张幻灯片下面的就是

on the bottom half of the slide.

土地赠与书

That's not possible in Latin America

但在拉丁美洲 这是不可能的

where land is held onto

这里的土地

by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.

都集中在极少数西班牙征服者后裔手上

And you can see here the huge divergence

你们看 南北美洲

that happens in property ownership between North and South.

由于产权不同而出现了大分流

Most people in rural North America

到1900年为止

owned some land by 1900.

北美洲的大部分人都拥有了土地

Hardly anyone in South America did.

而在南美洲 拥有土地的人寥寥无几

That's another killer app.

这又是一个“致命”应用程序

Modern medicine in the late 19th century

19世纪末期 现代医药

began to make major breakthroughs

在治疗致命传染病方面

against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.

取得重大突破

And this was another killer app --

这又是一个“致命”应用程序

the very opposite of a killer,

但这个程序并不致命

because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.

反而将人类的寿命提高了一倍又一倍

It even did that

现代医药

in the European empires.

在欧洲帝国的殖民地中 也发挥了作用

Even in places like Senegal,

即使是在塞内加尔（西非国家）

beginning in the early 20th century,

公共卫生也在20世纪早期

there were major breakthroughs in public health,

取得了重大突破

and life expectancy began to rise.

延长了人们的寿命

It doesn't rise any faster

而这些国家独立之后

after these countries become independent.

人们的寿命并没有继续增加

The empires weren't all bad.

所以说帝国也不见得都是不好的

The consumer society is what you need

工业革命在一个消费者导向社会进行

for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.

才有实际意义

You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.

你需要大量需要购买衣服的人

You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;

你们上个月肯定都买过衣服

I guarantee it.

我敢保证

That's the consumer society,

正是消费者导向社会

and it propels economic growth

推动了经济的增长

more than even technological change itself.

其力量超过了技术革新本身

Japan was the first non-Western society

日本是第一个非西方国家

to embrace it.

以消费为导向的社会。

The alternative,

而另一条路

which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,

就是默罕默德·甘地提出的

was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.

将贫困制度化 永久化

Very few Indians today

今天的印度

wish that India had gone down

大家都庆幸

Mahatma Gandhi's road.

他们没有选择甘地的这条道路

Finally, the work ethic.

最后 职业道德

Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.

麦克斯·韦伯认为这完全是新教的作风

He was wrong.

他错了

Any culture can get the work ethic

只要有创造

if the institutions are there

劳动激励机制的制度

to create the incentive to work.

任何文化都有自身的职业道德

We know this

我们都清楚

because today the work ethic

今天的职业道德

is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.

不再是新教或西方社会的专利

In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.

事实上 西方的职业道德已经沦丧了

Today, the average Korean

今天 一个韩国人

works a thousand hours more a year

每年平均比一个德国人

than the average German --

多工作1000个小时

a thousand.

1000个小时啊

And this is part

这从一方面

of a really extraordinary phenomenon,

反映了一个惊人的现象

and that is the end of the Great Divergence.

那就是 大分流的终结

Who's got the work ethic now?

现在谁拥有职业道德

Take a look at mathematical attainment

我们看看15岁学生的

by 15 year-olds.

数学成绩

At the top of the international league table

根据国际学生评估项目（PISA）的最近调查

according to the latest PISA study,

中国上海的学生

is the Shanghai district of China.

成绩高居榜首

The gap between Shanghai

英国和美国

and the United Kingdom and the United States

与上海之间的差距

is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.

等同于阿尔巴尼亚和突尼斯

and Albania and Tunisia.

与英美两国的差距

You probably assume

你们可能认为

that because the iPhone was designed in California

iPhone手机是由加利福尼亚设计

but assembled in China

而在中国装配

that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.

所以西方在技术创新上还是处于领先地位

You're wrong.

大错特错

In terms of patents,

在专利方面

there's no question that the East is ahead.

东方毫无疑问是处于领先的

Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,

不仅日本处于领先有一段时间

South Korea has gone into third place,

韩国已冲到了第三位

and China is just about to overtake Germany.

而中国眼看就要超越德国

Why?

怎么会这样

Because the killer apps can be downloaded.

这是因为 人人都能下载“致命”应用程序

It's open source.

是共享资源

Any society can adopt these institutions,

各个社会都能采用这些制度

and when they do,

一旦他们这么做了

they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --

他们就能实现西方1500年之后的成就

only faster.

但他们的速度更快

This is the Great Reconvergence,

这是新一轮的大分流

and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.

是你一生中最重大的事件

Because it's on your watch that this is happening.

因为你正亲眼目睹正在发生的这些事

It's our generation

我们这一代人

that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.

眼看着西方主导地位的终结

The average American used to be more than 20 times richer

美国人人均曾经比中国人人均

than the average Chinese.

富裕20倍

Now it's just five times,

而今降至5倍

and soon it will be 2.5 times.

很快会变成2.5倍

So I want to end with three questions

我想通过三个问题

for the future billions,

来结束

just ahead of 2016,

在2016年 中国取代美国

when the United States will lose its place

成为世界头号经济强国之前

as number one economy to China.

这三个问题与未来发展有关

The first is, can you delete these apps,

第一 这些应用程序能否被删除

and are we in the process of doing so

西方国家

in the Western world?

是否正在这么做

The second question is,

第二问题

does the sequencing of the download matter?

这些应用程序需要注重下载顺序吗

And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?

非洲是否在下载顺序上出了错

One obvious implication of modern economic history

我们从近代经济历史中学到

is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy

如果不先建立有保障的私有产权

before you've established

那么就很难

secure private property rights.

建立民主制度

Warning: that may not work.

警告 这可能行不通

And third, can China do without

第三 若不采用应用程序三

killer app number three?

中国能否成功

That's the one that John Locke systematized

当洛克说自由根植于私有产权

when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights

和私有产权保护法中

and the protection of law.

他就是在强调这一点

That's the basis

这就是由

for the Western model

代议制组成政府的西方模式

of representative government.

基础所在

Now this picture shows the demolition

这张照片展示了

of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio

中国艺术家艾未未在上海的工作室

in Shanghai earlier this year.

今年早些时候被拆除的画面

He's now free again,

经过一段时间的关押

having been detained, as you know, for some time.

他现在已经重获自由

But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.

但是他的工作室应该没有得到重建

Winston Churchill once defined civilization

丘吉尔在1938年一次演说中

in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.

曾对文明做出了定义

And I think these words really nail it:

我认为这句话一针见血

"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.

“文明意味着社会以民众的意见为基石。

It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,

意味着暴力，暴君统治，

the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,

集中营，战争，暴乱，独裁

give place to parliaments where laws are made,

统统让位于制定法律的议会

and independent courts of justice

和长期保证法律得到执行的

in which over long periods those laws are maintained.

独立司法机关。

That is civilization --

这就是文明－－

and in its soil grow continually

在文明的土壤中，

freedom, comfort and culture,"

自由，祥和，文化都能茁壮成长。”

what all TEDsters care about most.

这是所有TED迷最关心的

"When civilization reigns in any country,

“当文明进驻一个国家

a wider and less harassed life

广大民众也便过上了

is afforded to the masses of the people."

更为自由，舒适的生活。”

That's so true.

这一点不假

I don't think the decline of Western civilization

我认为西方文明的衰落

is inevitable,

是不可避免的

because I don't think history operates

因为我认为历史并不是

in this kind of life-cycle model,

以生命循环的方式发展的

beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's

并非托马斯·科尔的系列画作

"Course of Empire" paintings.

“帝国的兴衰”所描绘的那般绮丽

That's not the way history works.

历史不是这样运作的

That's not the way the West rose,

西方世界的崛起和衰落

and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.

都不是这样发生的

The West may collapse very suddenly.

西方世界可能转眼间就崩塌了

Complex civilizations do that,

复杂的文明往往都是这样

because they operate, most of the time,

这是因为大多数情况下

on the edge of chaos.

这些国家都处于崩溃的边缘

That's one of the most profound insights

这是我们在对文明

to come out of the historical study of complex institutions

这样复杂制度的历史研究中

like civilizations.

最大的领悟

No, we may hang on,

尽管我们负债累累

despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,

尽管我们的职业道德已经沦丧

despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic

尽管我们其它的历史优势都不再灵光

and other parts of our historical mojo.

我们还是可以生存的

But one thing is for sure,

但有一点是肯定的 弟兄们

the Great Divergence

大分流

is over, folks.

已经玩完了

Thanks very much.

感谢大家

(Applause)

（众人鼓掌）

Bruno Giussani: Niall,

布鲁诺·吉尤萨尼：尼尔

I am just curious

我想知道

about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,

你对拉丁美洲这片正在崛起的地区

which is Latin America.

有何见解

What's your view on that?

说说你的看法

Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking

尼尔·费格森：我所谈论的

about the rise of the East;

并不只是东方的崛起

I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,

我说的是西方以外地区的崛起

and that includes South America.

南美洲当然也包括在内

I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,

我曾经问我在哈佛大学的一位同事

"Hey, is South America part of the West?"

“嘿，南美洲属于西方吗？”

He was an expert in Latin American history.

他可是拉丁美洲历史方面的专家

He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."

他说：“我还真不确定。我得好好想想。”

That tells you something really important.

这很能说明问题

I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,

你们看看巴西的情况

but also Chile,

还有智力

which was in many ways the one that led the way

这个国家在经济生活中的制度转型

in transforming the institutions of economic life,

有许多过人之处

there's a very bright future indeed.

这个国家的前景一片光明

So my story really is

我想说的是

as much about that convergence in the Americas

美洲的大分流

as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.

和欧亚的大分流情况是差不多的

BG: And there is this impression

吉尤萨尼：似乎

that North America and Europe

北美和欧洲

are not really paying attention

都没有注意到

to these trends.

这些趋势

Mostly they're worried about each other.

他们只是相互担心

The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.

美国人担心欧洲模式明天就要分崩离析

The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.

而欧洲人担心美国各方矛盾不久就会爆发

And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.

似乎我们最近都在担心这些事情

NF: I think the fiscal crisis

费格森：认为发达国家的政府财政危机

that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --

不管是欧洲还是美国

is essentially the same thing

在本质上都是相同的

taking different forms

只不过披着不同的

in terms of political culture.

政治文化外衣而已

And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --

这个危机尤其它自身的结构

it's partly to do with demographics.

这在一定程度上与人口统计数据有关

But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis

但是 这主要还是过度杠杆作用

that followed excessive leverage,

和过度向私有行业贷款

excessive borrowing in the private sector.

才导致大规模危机的产生

That crisis,

人们

which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,

对危机过于关注 我也不例外

I think is an epiphenomenon.

我认为这是一种偶发现象

The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,

金融危机不算是非常重大的历史现象

which has just accelerated

只是在近期才开始

this huge shift,

愈演愈烈

which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.

结束了西方五百年的世袭优势

I think that's its real importance.

我认为这才是其重要性所在

BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)

吉尤萨尼：谢谢你 （费格森：也谢谢你 布鲁诺）

(Applause)

（众人鼓掌）