Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity

Translator: Anders Finn Jørgensen Reviewer: Niels Justus

Let's talk about billions.

Lad os tale om milliarder

Let's talk about

Lad os tale om

past and future billions.

forrige og fremtidige milliarder.

We know

Vi ved

that about 106 billion people

at omkring 106 milliarder mennesker

have ever lived.

har levet her.

And we know that most of them are dead.

Og vi ved at de fleste af dem er døde.

And we also know

Vi ved også at

that most of them live or lived in Asia.

de fleste af dem lever eller har levet i Asien.

And we also know

Og vi ved også

that most of them were or are very poor --

at de fleste af dem var eller er meget fattige --

did not live for very long.

lever ikke særligt længe.

Let's talk about billions.

Lad os tale om milliarder.

Let's talk about

Lad os tale om

the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth

den 195.000 milliarder dollars store formue

in the world today.

i verden i dag.

We know that most of that wealth

Vi ved at det meste af den formue

was made after the year 1800.

er skabt efter året 1800.

And we know that most of it

Og vi ved at det meste af den

is currently owned

er for øjeblikket ejet

by people we might call Westerners:

af folk vi kan kalde vesterlændinge:

Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.

Europæer, nordamerikanere og australiere.

19 percent of the world's population today,

19 procent af verdens befolkning i dag.

Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.

Vesterlændinge ejer totredjedele af dens formue.

Economic historians

Økonomihistorikere

call this "The Great Divergence."

kaldet dette "Den store adskillelse"

And this slide here

Og denne slide

is the best simplification

er den bedste simplificering

of the Great Divergence story

af historien om Den store adskillelse

I can offer you.

jeg kan tilbyde jer.

It's basically two ratios

Det er basalt set to forhold mellem

of per capita GDP,

per person BNP,

per capita gross domestic product,

per person bruttonationalprodukt,

so average income.

altså gennemsnitlig indkomst.

One, the red line,

Den røde linje

is the ratio of British to Indian

er forholdet mellem en britisk og indisk

per capita income.

gennemsnitsindkomst.

And the blue line

Og den blå linje

is the ratio of American to Chinese.

er forholdet mellem en amerikansk og en kinesisk.

And this chart goes back to 1500.

Denne graf går tilbage til 1500.

And you can see here

Og du kan se her

that there's an exponential Great Divergence.

at adskillelsen vokser eksponentielt.

They start off pretty close together.

De starter temmelig ens.

In fact, in 1500,

Faktisk, i 1500,

the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.

var den gennemsnitlige kineser rigere end den gennemsnitlige nordamerikaner.

When you get to the 1970s,

Når du kommer til 1970'erne,

which is where this chart ends,

som er hvor denne graf ender,

the average Briton is more than 10 times richer

er den gennemsnitlige brite mere end 10 gange rigere

than the average Indian.

en den gennemsnitlige inder.

And that's allowing

Og der er korrigeret for

for differences in the cost of living.

for forskelle i priser.

It's based on purchasing power parity.

Det er baseret på købekraftspariteter.

The average American

Den gennemsnitlige amerikaner

is nearly 20 times richer

er omtrent 20 gange rigere

than the average Chinese

end den gennemsnitlige kineser

by the 1970s.

i 1970'erne.

So why?

Hvordan det?

This wasn't just an economic story.

Dette er ikke bare en økonomisk historie.

If you take the 10 countries

Hvis du tager de 10 lande

that went on to become

som blev

the Western empires,

de vestlige imperier,

in 1500 they were really quite tiny --

i 1500 var de ret bette --

five percent of the world's land surface,

fem procent af verdens landoverflade,

16 percent of its population,

16 procent af det befolkning,

maybe 20 percent of its income.

måske 20 procent af dets indkomst.

By 1913,

Men i 1913,

these 10 countries, plus the United States,

disse 10 lande, plus USA,

controlled vast global empires --

kontrollerede enorme globale imperier --

58 percent of the world's territory,

58 procent af verdens territorium,

about the same percentage of its population,

omtrent den samme procentdel af dets befolkning,

and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share

og en virkelig stor, omtrent trefjerdedeles andel

of global economic output.

af det globale økonomiske output.

And notice, most of that went to the motherland,

Og bemærk, det meste af det gik til moderlandene,

to the imperial metropoles,

til imperiernes metropoler,

not to their colonial possessions.

ikke til deres koloniale besiddelser.

Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --

Men du kan bare ikke skyde skylden på imperialismen --

though many people have tried to do so --

selvom mange mennesker har forsøgt det --

for two reasons.

af to grunde.

One, empire was the least original thing

For det første, imperier var den mindst originale ting

that the West did after 1500.

som Vesten gjorde efter 1500.

Everybody did empire.

Alle skabte imperier.

They beat preexisting Oriental empires

De slog eksisterende østlige imperier

like the Mughals and the Ottomans.

som Mogulerne og Osmannerne.

So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation

Så det ser virkeligt ikke ud som om imperier er nogen god forklaring

for the Great Divergence.

for Den store adskillelse.

In any case, as you may remember,

Under alle omstændigheder, som I måske husker,

the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,

den store adskillelse nåede sit højdepunkt i 1970'erne,

some considerable time after decolonization.

betragtelig tid efter afkoloniseringen.

This is not a new question.

Dette er ikke et nyt spørgsmål.

Samuel Johnson,

Samuel Johnson,

the great lexicographer,

den store ordbogsforfatter,

[posed] it through his character Rasselas

udtrykte det gennem sin karakter Rasselas

in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"

i hans roman "Rasselas, prins af Abessinien"

published in 1759.

udgivet i 1759.

"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;

"Af hvilken grund er europæerne så magtfulde,

or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa

siden de så let kan besøge Asien og Afrika

for trade or conquest,

for handel eller erobring,

cannot the Asiaticks and Africans

hvorfor kan asiater og afrikanere ikke

invade their coasts,

invadere deres kyster,

plant colonies in their ports,

plante kolonier i deres havne

and give laws to their natural princes?

og give ordre til deres fyrster?

The same wind that carries them back

De samme vinde som bringer dem tilbage

would bring us thither?"

burde bringe os derhen?"

That's a great question.

Det er et godt spørgsmål.

And you know what,

Og ved I hvad,

it was also being asked at roughly the same time

det er også blevet stillet nogenlunde samtidigt

by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --

af restlændingene -- af folket i resten af verden --

like Ibrahim Muteferrika,

som Ibrahim Muteferrika

an Ottoman official,

en Osmannisk embedsmand,

the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,

manden der indførte trykning, meget forsinket,

to the Ottoman Empire --

til det Osmanniske rige --

who said in a book published in 1731,

som skrev i en bog udgivet 1731:

"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past

"Hvorfor er de kristne nationer, som var så svage før i tiden

compared with Muslim nations

sammenlignet med de muslimske nationer,

begin to dominate so many lands in modern times

begyndt at dominere så mange lande i moderne tider

and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"

og endda vinder over de før så sejrrige Osmanniske hære?"

Unlike Rasselas,

Modsat Rasselas

Muteferrika had an answer to that question,

havde Muteferrika et svar på spørgsmålet

which was correct.

som var korrekt.

He said it was "because they have laws and rules

Han skrev det var "fordi de har love og regler

invented by reason."

udledt af fornuften."

It's not geography.

Det handler ikke om geografi.

You may think we can explain the Great Divergence

Du tror at vi kan forklare den store adskillelse

in terms of geography.

ud fra geografi.

We know that's wrong,

Men vi ved at det er forkert,

because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century

fordi vi har udført to store naturlige eksperimenter i det 20'ende århundrede

to see if geography mattered more than institutions.

for at se om geografi betød mere end institutioner.

We took all the Germans,

Vi tog alle tyskerne

we divided them roughly in two,

og delte dem i 2 dele,

and we gave the ones in the East communism,

hvor vi gav den ene del til den østlige kommunisme

and you see the result.

og I ser resultatet.

Within an incredibly short period of time,

Indenfor et ufatteligt kort tidsrum

people living in the German Democratic Republic

producerede menneskerne der levede i DDR

produced Trabants, the Trabbi,

trabanter, trabierne,

one of the world's worst ever cars,

en af verden værste biler nogensinde,

while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.

mens tyskerne i vest producerede Mercedes Benz.

If you still don't believe me,

Hvis du stadigvæk ikke tror mig,

we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.

så udførte vi også forsøget på den Koreanske halvø.

And we decided we'd take Koreans

Og vi besluttede at tage koreanerne

in roughly the same geographical place

i nogenlunde samme geografiske område

with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,

med, bemærk, den samme basale traditionelle kultur

and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.

og vi delte dem i to, og vi gav de nordlige kommunisme.

And the result is an even bigger divergence

Og resultatet er en endnu større forskel

in a very short space of time

i et meget kort tidsrum

than happened in Germany.

end hvad der skete i Tyskland.

Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,

Indrømmet, ikke den store forskel hvad angår design af grænsevagternes uniformer,

but in almost every other respect,

men i enhver anden henseende

it's a huge divergence.

er det en kæmpe forskel.

Which leads me to think

Hvilket får mig til at mene

that neither geography nor national character,

at hverken geografi eller nationalkarakter,

popular explanations for this kind of thing,

populære forklaringer for den slags ting,

are really significant.

betyder noget.

It's the ideas.

Det er ideerne.

It's the institutions.

Det er institutionerne.

This must be true

Dette må være rigtigt

because a Scotsman said it.

fordi det er sagt af en skotte.

And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.

Jeg tror jeg er den eneste skotte tilstede her på Edinburgh TED.

So let me just explain to you

Så lad mig forklare for jer

that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.

at den klogeste mand som nogensinde har levet var en skotte.

He was Adam Smith --

Han var Adam Smith --

not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --

not Billy Connoly, not Sean Connery --

though he is very smart indeed.

selvom har er meget smart.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

Smith -- and I want you to go

Smith -- og jeg vil have jer til at gå hen

and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;

og knæle for hans statue på the Royal Mile.

it's a wonderful statue --

Det er en fantastisk statue --

Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"

Smith, i "Nationernes velstand"

published in 1776 --

udgivet i 1776 --

that's the most important thing that happened that year ...

det var den vigtigste begivenhed som skete det år ..

(Laughter)

(Latter)

You bet.

Helt sikkert.

There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...

Der var en lille lokal besværlighed i en af vores mindre kolonier, men ...

(Laughter)

(Latter)

"China seems to have been long stationary,

"Kina syntes ikke at have udviklet sig længe

and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches

og har sandsynligvis for længe siden fuldbyrdet den rigdom

which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.

som ligger indenfor dets love og institutioners muligheder.

But this complement may be much inferior

Men denne fuldbyrdelse er måske meget lavere

to what, with other laws and institutions,

end hvad, med andre love og institutioner,

the nature of its soil, climate, and situation

naturen af dets jord, klima og situation

might admit of."

giver mulighed for."

That is so right and so cool.

Det er så rigtigt og så cool.

And he said it such a long time ago.

Og han sagde det for så længe siden.

But you know, this is a TED audience,

Men som I ved, dette er et TED publikum

and if I keep talking about institutions,

og hvis jeg fortsætter med at tale om institutioner

you're going to turn off.

falder I i søvn.

So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.

Så jeg vil oversætte det til et sprog i kan forstå.

Let's call them the killer apps.

Lad os kalde dem killer apps.

I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps

Jeg vil forklare for jer at der er seks killer apps

that set the West apart from the rest.

som gav Vesten et forspring fra resten.

And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,

De er killer apps på samme måde som dem på jeres mobil,

in the sense that they look quite simple.

I den betydning at de ser simple ud.

They're just icons; you click on them.

Det er bare ikoner, du klikker på.

But behind the icon, there's complex code.

Men bag ikonet er det kompleks programmering.

It's the same with institutions.

Det er det samme med institutioner.

There are six

Der er seks

which I think explain the Great Divergence.

som jeg mener kan forklare den store adskillelse.

One, competition.

Et, konkurrence.

Two, the scientific revolution.

To, den videnskabelige revolution.

Three, property rights.

Tre, ejendomsret.

Four, modern medicine.

Fire, moderne medicin.

Five, the consumer society.

Fem, forbrugersamfundet.

And six, the work ethic.

Og seks, arbejdsetik.

You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,

Du kan spille et spil med tanken om at jeg har glemt en,

or try and boil it down to just four,

eller du kan koge det ned til kun fire,

but you'll lose.

men du vil tabe.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,

Lad mig kort fortælle hvad jeg mener med dette

synthesizing the work of many economic historians

og undervejs sammenfatte arbejdet fra mange

in the process.

økonomihistorikere.

Competition means,

Konkurrence betyder

not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,

at ikke bare var der hundreder af forskellige politiske enheder i Europa i 1500,

but within each of these units,

men indenfor hver af disse enheder,

there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.

var der konkurrence mellem virksomheder, såvel som herskere.

The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,

Stamfaderen til moderne selskaber, the City of London Corporation

existed in the 12th century.

eksisterede i 12-hundredetallet.

Nothing like this existed in China,

Intet tilsvarende eksisterede i Kina,

where there was one monolithic state

der var bare en monolitisk stat

covering a fifth of humanity,

omfattende en femtedel af menneskeheden,

and anyone with any ambition

og enhver med hvilken som helst ambition

had to pass one standardized examination,

skulle bestå én standardiseret eksamen,

which took three days and was very difficult

som tog tre dage og var meget svær

and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters

og bestod af at huske en stort antal skrifttegn

and very complex Confucian essay writing.

og skrive afhandlinger om meget indviklet konfuciansk lærdom.

The scientific revolution was different

Den videnskabelige revolution var anderledes

from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world

fra den videnskab som blev opnået i den orientalske verden

in a number of crucial ways,

på en række afgørende punkter,

the most important being

den mest vigtige er

that, through the experimental method,

brug af den eksperimentelle metode.

it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.

Den giver mennesker kontrol over naturen på en måde som ikke var mulig før.

Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application

Eksempelvis: Benjamin Robins ekstraordinære anvendelse

of Newtonian physics to ballistics.

af Newtons fysik indenfor ballistik.

Once you do that,

Når du kan gøre dette

your artillery becomes accurate.

bliver dit artilleri præcist.

Think of what that means.

Tænk på hvad det betyder.

That really was a killer application.

Det var virkeligt en Killer applikation.

(Laughter)

(Latter)

Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.

Samtidigt var der ingen videnskabelig revolution nogen andre steder.

The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,

Det Osmanniske imperium var ikke langt fra Europa,

but there's no scientific revolution there.

men der er ingen videnskabelig revolution der.

In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,

Faktisk ødelagde de Taqi al-Din's observatorium

because it's considered blasphemous

fordi det betragtedes som blasfemisk

to inquire into the mind of God.

at undersøge guds skaberværk.

Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;

Ejendomsret: Det er ikke demokrati folkens,

it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.

det er at regere på basis af love baseret på privat ejendomsret.

That's what makes the difference

Det er hvad der gør forskellen

between North America and South America.

mellem Nordamerika og Sydamerika.

You could turn up in North America

Du kunne dukke op i Nordamerika

having signed a deed of indenture

efter at have underskrevet en kontrakt

saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.

om: "Jeg vil arbejde gratis de næste fem år.

You just have to feed me."

For kost og logi."

But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.

Men bagefter havde du hundrede hektar land.

That's the land grant

Dette var udlodning af land

on the bottom half of the slide.

i bunden af denne slide.

That's not possible in Latin America

Dette er ikke muligt i Sydamerika

where land is held onto

hvor jorden er ejet

by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.

af en lille elite der nedstammer fra Conquistadorene.

And you can see here the huge divergence

Og I kan her se den store forskel

that happens in property ownership between North and South.

som der er på jordejerskab mellem nord og syd.

Most people in rural North America

De fleste folk i den landlige Nordamerika

owned some land by 1900.

ejede noget jord i 1900.

Hardly anyone in South America did.

Stort set ingen i Sydamerika gjorde.

That's another killer app.

Her er en anden killer app.

Modern medicine in the late 19th century

Moderne medicin i slutningen af 18-hundrede tallet

began to make major breakthroughs

fik nogle store gennembrud

against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.

i kampen mod infektioner som dræbte en masse mennesker.

And this was another killer app --

Og dette var en anden killer app --

the very opposite of a killer,

faktisk det modsatte af en dræber,

because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.

fordi den fordoblede, og derefter mere en fordoblede et menneskes forventede levetid.

It even did that

Den gjorde det endda

in the European empires.

ude i de europæiske imperier.

Even in places like Senegal,

Selv steder som Senegal

beginning in the early 20th century,

hvor der i starten af det 20'ende århundrede

there were major breakthroughs in public health,

var der store gennembrud i den offentlige sundhed

and life expectancy began to rise.

og levetiden begyndte at stige.

It doesn't rise any faster

Den begyndte ikke at stige hurtigere

after these countries become independent.

efter at disse lande blev selvstændige.

The empires weren't all bad.

Imperier var ikke kun af det onde.

The consumer society is what you need

Forbrugersamfundet er hvad du behøver

for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.

for at den industrielle revolution har et formål.

You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.

Du behøver at folk ønsker at bære tonsvis af tøj.

You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;

I har alle købt et stykke tøj indenfor den sidste måned --

I guarantee it.

jeg garantere det.

That's the consumer society,

Det er forbrugersamfundet

and it propels economic growth

og det driver den økonomiske vækst

more than even technological change itself.

mere end den teknologiske udvikling gør.

Japan was the first non-Western society

Japan var det første ikke vestlige samfund

to embrace it.

til at omfavne det.

The alternative,

Alternativet,

which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,

som var foreslået af Mahatma Gandhi,

was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.

var at institutionaliserer fattigdomen og gøre den permanent.

Very few Indians today

Meget få indere i dag

wish that India had gone down

ønsker at Indien havde fulgt

Mahatma Gandhi's road.

Mahatma Gandhis vej.

Finally, the work ethic.

Til sidst, arbejdsetik.

Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.

Max Weber troede at det var noget særligt protestantisk.

He was wrong.

Han tog fejl.

Any culture can get the work ethic

Enhver kultur kan tilegne sig arbejdsetik,

if the institutions are there

hvis der er institutioner tilstede

to create the incentive to work.

der skaber incitamenter for at arbejde.

We know this

Vi ved dette

because today the work ethic

fordi at i dag er arbejdsetik

is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.

ikke længere et protestantisk, vestligt fænomen.

In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.

Faktisk, har Vesten tabt sin arbejdsetik.

Today, the average Korean

I dag arbejder den gennemsnitlige koreaner

works a thousand hours more a year

tusind timer mere om året

than the average German --

end den gennemsnitlige tysker --

a thousand.

et tusinde.

And this is part

Og dette er en del

of a really extraordinary phenomenon,

af et virkeligt ekstraordinært fænomen

and that is the end of the Great Divergence.

som er slutningen på Den store adskillelse.

Who's got the work ethic now?

Hvem har arbejdsetikken nu?

Take a look at mathematical attainment

Kig på disse matematiske færdigheder

by 15 year-olds.

hos 15-årige.

At the top of the international league table

I toppen af den internationale liga

according to the latest PISA study,

ifølge den seneste PISA undersøgelse,

is the Shanghai district of China.

er Shanghai distriktet i Kina.

The gap between Shanghai

Forskellen mellem Shanghai

and the United Kingdom and the United States

Storbritannien og USA

is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.

er lige så stor som forskellen mellem UK og USA

and Albania and Tunisia.

og Albanien og Tunesien.

You probably assume

I forstiller jer nok

that because the iPhone was designed in California

at fordi IPhone var designet i Californien

but assembled in China

men samlet i Kina

that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.

så er Vesten stadig førende indenfor teknologisk innovation.

You're wrong.

I tager fejl.

In terms of patents,

Målt på antal patenter

there's no question that the East is ahead.

er der ingen tvivl om at Østen er foran.

Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,

Ikke bare har Japan været foran i noget tid,

South Korea has gone into third place,

Sydkorea kommer ind på en tredjeplads

and China is just about to overtake Germany.

og Kina er lige ved at overhale Tyskland.

Why?

Hvorfor?

Because the killer apps can be downloaded.

Fordi Killer apps kan blive downloadet.

It's open source.

Det er open source.

Any society can adopt these institutions,

Ethvert samfund kan indfører disse institutioner

and when they do,

og de vil gøre det,

they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --

de vil opnå det som vesten opnåede efter 1500 --

only faster.

bare hurtigere.

This is the Great Reconvergence,

Det er Den store gensamling,

and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.

og det er den største fortælling i vores levetid.

Because it's on your watch that this is happening.

Fordi det sker for øjnene af jer.

It's our generation

Det er vores generation

that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.

som er vidner til afslutningen af Vestens dominans.

The average American used to be more than 20 times richer

Den gennemsnitlige amerikaner plejede at være 20 gange rigere

than the average Chinese.

end den gennemsnitlige kineser.

Now it's just five times,

Nu er det kun fem gange

and soon it will be 2.5 times.

og snart vil det blive 2,5 gange.

So I want to end with three questions

Så for at slutte med tre spørgsmål

for the future billions,

om de fremtidige milliarder,

just ahead of 2016,

umiddelbart efter 2016

when the United States will lose its place

når USA har tabt sin plads som

as number one economy to China.

økonomisk nummer et til Kina.

The first is, can you delete these apps,

Det første er om man kan slette disse apps

and are we in the process of doing so

og er vi i gang med at gøre det

in the Western world?

i den vestlige verden?

The second question is,

Det andet spørgsmål er:

does the sequencing of the download matter?

Har rækkefølgen af download en betydning?

And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?

Og har Afrika gjort det i den forkerte rækkefølge?

One obvious implication of modern economic history

En grundlæggende lære fra moderne økonomisk historie

is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy

er at det er svært at overgå til demokrati

before you've established

før du har etableret

secure private property rights.

sikring af den private ejendomsret.

Warning: that may not work.

Advarsel: Det vil ikke virke.

And third, can China do without

Og for det tredje, kan Kina klare sig

killer app number three?

uden killer app nummer tre?

That's the one that John Locke systematized

Det er den som John Locke systematiserede

when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights

da han sagde at frihed var grundfæstet i den private ejendomsret

and the protection of law.

og retssikkerhed gennem lovgivning.

That's the basis

Dette er grundlaget

for the Western model

for den vestlige model

of representative government.

for repræsentativ regering.

Now this picture shows the demolition

Dette fotografi viser nedrivningen af

of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio

af den kinesiske kunster Ai Weiweis atelier

in Shanghai earlier this year.

i Shanghai tidligere på året.

He's now free again,

Hen er nu på fri fod igen

having been detained, as you know, for some time.

efter at være fængslet, som I ved, i et stykke tid.

But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.

Men jeg tror ikke har atelier er blevet genopbygget.

Winston Churchill once defined civilization

Winston Churchill definerede engang civilisation

in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.

i et foredrag han holdt i det skæbnesvangre år 1938.

And I think these words really nail it:

Jeg tror at disse ord sætter det på spidsen:

"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.

"Det betyder et samfund baseret på borgernes vilje.

It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,

Det betyder at vold, regering af krigsherrer og despotiske fyrster,

the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,

tilstanden af lejre og krig, af optøjer og tyranni ,

give place to parliaments where laws are made,

giver plads til forsamlinger hvor love er lavet,

and independent courts of justice

uafhængigt retsvæsen

in which over long periods those laws are maintained.

hvor disse love er opretholdt over længere perioder.

That is civilization --

Dette er civilisation --

and in its soil grow continually

i hvis jord gror fremdeles

freedom, comfort and culture,"

frihed, tryghed og kultur."

what all TEDsters care about most.

Det er alt hvad TEDstere bekymrer sig mest om.

"When civilization reigns in any country,

"Når civilisation regerer i alle lande,

a wider and less harassed life

vil et rigere og mindre farligt liv

is afforded to the masses of the people."

være muligt for de brede masser af folk."

That's so true.

Det er så rigtigt.

I don't think the decline of Western civilization

Jeg tror ikke af nedgangen i vestlig civilisation

is inevitable,

er uafvendelig,

because I don't think history operates

fordi jeg tror ikke at historien fungere

in this kind of life-cycle model,

efter en slags livscyklus model,

beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's

smukt illustreret af Thomas Cole i

"Course of Empire" paintings.

malerierne "Imperiernes gang".

That's not the way history works.

Det er ikke måden hvorpå historien arbejder.

That's not the way the West rose,

Det er ikke måden hvorpå Vesten steg

and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.

og jeg tror ikke det er måden Vesten vil falde.

The West may collapse very suddenly.

Vesten kan kollapse meget hurtigt.

Complex civilizations do that,

Komplekse civilisationer gør det

because they operate, most of the time,

fordi de fungere, for det meste af tiden,

on the edge of chaos.

på kanten af kaos.

That's one of the most profound insights

Det er en af de dybere indsigter

to come out of the historical study of complex institutions

som er kommet frem af historiske studier af komplekse institutioner

like civilizations.

så som civilisationer.

No, we may hang on,

Nej vi vil hænge på

despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,

på trods af den kæmpe byrde af gæld vi har optaget,

despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic

på trods af at vi har tabt vores arbejdsetik

and other parts of our historical mojo.

og andre dele af vores historiske arv.

But one thing is for sure,

Men en ting er sikkert

the Great Divergence

Den store adskillelse

is over, folks.

er forbi, venner.

Thanks very much.

Mange tak.

(Applause)

(Bifald)

Bruno Giussani: Niall,

Bruno Giussane: Niall,

I am just curious

Jeg er nysgerrig

about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,

efter at tage dig til en anden region i verden som boomer,

which is Latin America.

nemlig Latinamerika.

What's your view on that?

Hvad er dit syn på det?

Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking

Niall Ferguson: Jeg taler ikke kun

about the rise of the East;

om at Østens rejser sig,

I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,

jeg taler om at Resten rejser sig,

and that includes South America.

herunder Sydamerika.

I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,

Jeg spurgte en gang en af mine kollegaer på Harvard:

"Hey, is South America part of the West?"

"Hej, er Sydamerika en del af Vesten?"

He was an expert in Latin American history.

Han var ekspert i latinamerikansk historie.

He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."

Han svarede:"Jeg ved det ikke, jeg bliver nødt til at tænke over det."

That tells you something really important.

Dette fortæller os noget meget vigtigt.

I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,

Jeg tror at hvis du kigger på hvad der sker ikke bare i Brasilien,

but also Chile,

men også i Chile,

which was in many ways the one that led the way

som på mange måder var landet som startede

in transforming the institutions of economic life,

med at forandre sine økonomiske institutioner,

there's a very bright future indeed.

er der bestemt en stor fremtid.

So my story really is

Så min historie er

as much about that convergence in the Americas

ligeså meget om konvergens i de to Amerika'er

as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.

som det er en historie om konvergens i Euroasien.

BG: And there is this impression

BG: Der er den forestilling om

that North America and Europe

at Nordamerika og Europa

are not really paying attention

ikke rigtigt er opmærksom på

to these trends.

disse trends.

Mostly they're worried about each other.

For det meste er de bekymrede om om hinanden.

The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.

Amerikanerne tror af den europæiske model vil brase sammen i morgen.

The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.

Europæerne tror at det amerikanske budget vil eksplodere i morgen.

And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.

Og det er alt hvad vi har beskæftiget os med på det seneste.

NF: I think the fiscal crisis

NF: Jeg tror at finanskrisen

that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --

som vi ser i den udviklede verden lige nu -- på begge sider af Atlanten --

is essentially the same thing

grundlæggende er den samme ting

taking different forms

som har forskellige former

in terms of political culture.

afhængigt af den politiske kultur.

And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --

Og at krisen har strukturelle facetter --

it's partly to do with demographics.

Det handler delvist om demografi.

But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis

Men det har selvfølgeligt også at gøre med den massive krise

that followed excessive leverage,

som fulgte efter overdrevne spekulation

excessive borrowing in the private sector.

og overdrevne låntagning i den private sektor.

That crisis,

Denne krise

which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,

som har fået megen opmærksomhed, også af mig,

I think is an epiphenomenon.

tror jeg er et overfladefænomen.

The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,

Den finansielle krise er i virkeligheden et forholdsvist lille historisk fænomen,

which has just accelerated

som bare har accelereret

this huge shift,

det kæmpe skift

which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.

som afslutter det halve årtusinde med vestlig opstigning.

I think that's its real importance.

Det er det som har betydning.

BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)

BG: Niall, mange tak (NF: Selvtak Bruno)

(Applause)

(Bifald)