Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity

Translator: Alvaro Moya Reviewer: Tania Filgueira

Let's talk about billions.

Hitz egin dezagun mila milioiei buruz.

Let's talk about

Hitz egin dezagun

past and future billions.

iraganaldiko eta gaurko mila milioiei buruz.

We know

Jakin badakigu

that about 106 billion people

106 mila milioi pertsona inguruan

have ever lived.

bizi egin direla.

And we know that most of them are dead.

Eta badakigu horietako gehienak hilda daudela.

And we also know

Eta badakigu ere bai

that most of them live or lived in Asia.

horietako gehienak Asian bizi direla edo zirela.

And we also know

Eta badakigu ere bai

that most of them were or are very poor --

horietako gehienak oso txiroak direla edo zirela --

did not live for very long.

ez zirela luzaroan bizi.

Let's talk about billions.

Hitz egin dezagun mila milioiei buruz.

Let's talk about

Hitz egin dezagun

the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth

aberastasunaren 195.000 mila milioi dolarrei buruz

in the world today.

gaurko munduan.

We know that most of that wealth

Jakin badakigu aberastasuna horien gehiengoa

was made after the year 1800.

1800. urtetik aurrera egin zela.

And we know that most of it

Eta badakigu kantitate horien gehiena,

is currently owned

gaur egun,

by people we might call Westerners:

Mendebaldarren eskuetan dagoela.

Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.

Europarrak, Ipar Amerikarrak, Australasiarrak.

19 percent of the world's population today,

Munduko populazioaren %19a gaur egun.

Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.

Mendebaldarrek aberastasun horren bi heren dute.

Economic historians

Historialari ekonomikoek

call this "The Great Divergence."

egoera horri "Dibergentzia Handia" esaten diote.

And this slide here

Eta diapositiba hau

is the best simplification

Dibergentzia Handia-ren

of the Great Divergence story

sinplifikazio hoberena da.

I can offer you.

Nik zuei eskain diezazuekedala.

It's basically two ratios

Funtsezkoan bi ratio dira

of per capita GDP,

biztanle bakoitzeko BPG-rena, hain zuzen ere,

per capita gross domestic product,

biztanle bakoitzeko barne produktu gordina,

so average income.

batezbesteko diru-sartzea.

One, the red line,

Bata, lerro gorria,

is the ratio of British to Indian

britaniarren eta indiarren artean

per capita income.

diru-sartzearen ratioa da.

And the blue line

Bestea, lerro urdina

is the ratio of American to Chinese.

amerikarren eta txinatarren arteko ratioa da.

And this chart goes back to 1500.

Eta grafiko honek 1500. urte arte barne hartzen du.

And you can see here

Eta hemen ikus dezakezue

that there's an exponential Great Divergence.

Divergentzia Handi esponentzial bat dagoela.

They start off pretty close together.

Hasieran, lerroak elkarren ondoan zeuden.

In fact, in 1500,

Izan ere, 1500. urtean

the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.

batezbesteko txinatarra batezbesteko iparamerikarra baino aberatsagoa zen.

When you get to the 1970s,

1970eko hamarkadara heltzean

which is where this chart ends,

non grafikoa amaitu zen,

the average Briton is more than 10 times richer

batezbesteko britanairra 10 aldiz aberatsagoa da

than the average Indian.

batezbesteko indiar batekin konparatuz.

And that's allowing

Eta desberdintasun horren zergatia da

for differences in the cost of living.

bizi-kosturen desberdintasunak.

It's based on purchasing power parity.

Eta hori erosteko gaitasunaren parekotasunean datza.

The average American

Batezbesteko amerikarra

is nearly 20 times richer

20 aldiz aberatsagoa da

than the average Chinese

batezbesteko txinatarrekin konparatuta

by the 1970s.

1970. hamarkadan.

So why?

Zergatik?

This wasn't just an economic story.

Hau ez da istorio ekonomiko bat soilik.

If you take the 10 countries

10 herri horiek hartzen badituzue

that went on to become

zeintzuk bihurtu ziren

the Western empires,

Mendebaldeko inperio

in 1500 they were really quite tiny --

1500. urtean oso herri txikiak ziren --

five percent of the world's land surface,

mundu-azalerako %5a,

16 percent of its population,

munduko populazioaren %16a,

maybe 20 percent of its income.

eta agian aberastasunaren %20a.

By 1913,

1913. urtean

these 10 countries, plus the United States,

10 herri horiek, gehi Estatu Batuak

controlled vast global empires --

mundu osoko inperio zabalak kontrolatzen zituzten

58 percent of the world's territory,

mundu-azalerako %58a

about the same percentage of its population,

populazioaren ehuneko berbera

and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share

eta oso zati handia,

of global economic output.

ia munduko ekoizpenaren hiru laurden.

And notice, most of that went to the motherland,

Eta, adi, etekin horien gehiengoa jatorrizko herrietara joan zen,

to the imperial metropoles,

inperioaren hiriburuetara,

not to their colonial possessions.

eta ez jabetza kolonialetara

Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --

Baina, inperialismoa ez da erruduna --

though many people have tried to do so --

pertsona asko egiten saiatu diren arren

for two reasons.

bi arrazoirengatik.

One, empire was the least original thing

Bata, inperioa haiek egindako originaltasun gutxiagoko gauza zen

that the West did after 1500.

Mendebaldeak, hain zuzen ere, 1500. urtetik aurrera.

Everybody did empire.

Herri guztiek egin zituzten inperioak.

They beat preexisting Oriental empires

Ekialdeko aurretiko inperioak garaitu zituzten

like the Mughals and the Ottomans.

mongoliarrak eta otomandarrak, adibidez.

So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation

Orduan ez dirudi inperioa oso adierazpen handia denik

for the Great Divergence.

Dibergentzia Handia ulertzeko.

In any case, as you may remember,

Nolanahi ere, gogora ezazue,

the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,

Dibergentzia Handia 1970. hamarkadan bere maila gorenera heldu zela,

some considerable time after decolonization.

deskolonizazioa gertatu ostean, urte dexente gainera.

This is not a new question.

Hau ez da galdera berri bat.

Samuel Johnson,

Samuel Johnson,

the great lexicographer,

lexikografiko nagusia,

[posed] it through his character Rasselas

bere pertsonaiaren zehar, Rasselas, kontrajartzen zuen

in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"

bere eleberrian "Rasselas, Abisiniako printzea"

published in 1759.

1759. urtean argitaratuta.

"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;

"Zeren bidez dira Europarrak hain boteretsuak;

or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa

edo, zergatik haiek Afrika eta Asia erraz bisita dezaketen

for trade or conquest,

salerosteko edo menderatzeko,

cannot the Asiaticks and Africans

eta afrikarrek eta asiarrek ezin dute

invade their coasts,

europarren kostaldeak indarrez hartu,

plant colonies in their ports,

euren portuetan koloniak jarri

and give laws to their natural princes?

eta euren jatorrizko printzeei legeak eman?

The same wind that carries them back

Haiek itzultzen dituen haize berberak

would bring us thither?"

hara eraman ahal izango gaitugu?"

That's a great question.

Hori da gakoa.

And you know what,

Eta jakin behar duzue,

it was also being asked at roughly the same time

galdera berbera egin zutela

by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --

gainerakoek ere -- munduaren gainerakoan bizi direnek --

like Ibrahim Muteferrika,

Ibrahim Muteferrika bezala,

an Ottoman official,

ofizial otomandar bat,

the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,

inprenta sartu zuen gizonak, nahiko berandu,

to the Ottoman Empire --

Otomandar Inperioan --

who said in a book published in 1731,

zeinek 1731. urtean argitaratutako liburu batean esan zuen,

"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past

"Zergatik iraganean hain ahul ziren herri kristauak

compared with Muslim nations

herri musulmanekin konparatuta

begin to dominate so many lands in modern times

hasi dira menperatzen hainbeste lur garai modernoetan

and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"

baita aurreko garaipenak lortutako armada otomandarrari irabazi ere?"

Unlike Rasselas,

Rasselas ez bezala,

Muteferrika had an answer to that question,

Muteferrika-k bazuen erantzuna galdera horretarako,

which was correct.

zuzena zen erantzuna.

He said it was "because they have laws and rules

Berak zioen "haiek badauzkatelako legeak eta eskubideak

invented by reason."

arrazoian oinarrituta."

It's not geography.

Hau ez da geografia.

You may think we can explain the Great Divergence

Norbaitek pentsa dezake Dibergentzia Handia azal dezakegula

in terms of geography.

geografikoki.

We know that's wrong,

Badakigu hori gaizki dagoela,

because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century

guk XX. mendean bi esperimentu natural nagusi gauzatu genituelako

to see if geography mattered more than institutions.

geografiak erakundeak baino garrantzi handiagoa duenentz ikusteko.

We took all the Germans,

Guk alemaniar guztiak hartu genituen,

we divided them roughly in two,

gutxi gorabehera bi zatitan banandu,

and we gave the ones in the East communism,

eta ekialdean bizi zirenei komunismoa eman genien,

and you see the result.

eta ondorioa ikus dezakezue.

Within an incredibly short period of time,

Oso denboraldi laburrean,

people living in the German Democratic Republic

Alemaniako Errepublika Demokratikoan bizi zirenek

produced Trabants, the Trabbi,

Trabants ekoiztu zituzten, Trabbi-a,

one of the world's worst ever cars,

munduko auto txarrenetariko bat,

while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.

Mendebaldeko biztanleek, halere, Mercedes Benz ekoiztu zuten.

If you still don't believe me,

Oraindik ez banauzue sinesten,

we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.

guk Koreako Penintsulan ere gauzatu genuen esperimentua.

And we decided we'd take Koreans

Eta erabaki genuen korear batzuk hartuko genituzkeela

in roughly the same geographical place

gutxi gorabehera leku berekoak

with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,

eta, adi, funtsezko kultura tradizional berarekin,

and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.

eta bi zatitan banandu genituen, eta iparraldekoei komunismoa eman genien.

And the result is an even bigger divergence

Eta ondorioa da are dibergentzia handiagoa

in a very short space of time

oso denboraldi laburrean

than happened in Germany.

Alemaniarekin konparatuta.

Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,

Ez da oso dibergentzia handia mugen soldaduen jantzia kontuan hartuta,

but in almost every other respect,

baina oso handia beste esparruetan,

it's a huge divergence.

benetazko dibergentzia handia.

Which leads me to think

Horrek pentsatuarazten dit

that neither geography nor national character,

ez geografia ez izaera nazionala,

popular explanations for this kind of thing,

oso azalpen hedatuak gai honetarako izan arren,

are really significant.

azalpen adierazgarriak ez direla.

It's the ideas.

Ideiak dira.

It's the institutions.

Erakundeak dira.

This must be true

Hau egia izan behar da

because a Scotsman said it.

eskoziar batek esan zuelako.

And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.

Eta uste dut eskoziar bakarra naizela hemen Edinburgh TED saioan.

So let me just explain to you

Orduan azalduko dizuet

that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.

mundu osoko gizaki argiena eskoziarra zela.

He was Adam Smith --

Adam Smith --

not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --

ez Billy Connolly, ez Sean Connery --

though he is very smart indeed.

oso argia izan arren benetan.

(Laughter)

(Algarak)

Smith -- and I want you to go

Smith -- eta nik nahi dut zuek joatea

and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;

eta agurtzea bere estatuaren aurrean Royal Mile-n;

it's a wonderful statue --

oso estatua bikaina da--

Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"

Smith, bere liburuan "Herrien aberastasuna"

published in 1776 --

1776. urtean argitaratuta --

that's the most important thing that happened that year ...

urte hartako gertakaera garrantzitsuena, hain zuzen ere ...

(Laughter)

(Algarak)

You bet.

Baietz izan.

There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...

Gure kolonia txikiaren batean arazoak sortu ziren, baina ...

(Laughter)

(Algarak)

"China seems to have been long stationary,

"Badirudi Txina oso denbora luzaroan geldirik egon dela,

and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches

eta seguraski orain dela denbora dexente oparitasun asko hartu zituela

which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.

eta horrek badu zerikusirik bere legeen eta erakundeen naturarekin.

But this complement may be much inferior

Baina laudorio hau askoz txikiago izan liteke

to what, with other laws and institutions,

beste batekin konparatuta, beste lege eta erakunde batzuekin,

the nature of its soil, climate, and situation

bere lurzoruaren, klimaren eta kokapenaren natura

might admit of."

eskura litekeela."

That is so right and so cool.

Bai zuzena eta originala dela.

And he said it such a long time ago.

Eta orain dela denbora asko esan zuen.

But you know, this is a TED audience,

Baina, badakizue, hau da TED entzunaldia,

and if I keep talking about institutions,

eta erakundeei buruz hitz egiten jarraitzen badut,

you're going to turn off.

loak hartuko zaituzte.

So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.

Orduan hau dena itzuliko dut zuek uler dezakezuen hizkuntza batera.

Let's call them the killer apps.

Dei dezagun erabilpen hiltzaileak.

I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps

Nik azaldu nahi dizuet bazirela 6 eralbilpen hiltzailek

that set the West apart from the rest.

zeintzuk Mendelbadea munduaren gainerakoengandik bereizten zuten.

And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,

Eta zuen sakelako telefonoetako antzekoak dira,

in the sense that they look quite simple.

oso sinpleak direlako.

They're just icons; you click on them.

Ikonoak dira; klikatu besterik ez duzu egin behar.

But behind the icon, there's complex code.

Baina ikonoaren atzetik, oso kode konplexua dago.

It's the same with institutions.

Gauza bera gertatzen da erakundeekin.

There are six

Sei dira

which I think explain the Great Divergence.

nik pentsatzen dut sei horiek Dibergentzia Handia azaltzen dutela.

One, competition.

Bat, lehia.

Two, the scientific revolution.

Bi, iraultza zientifikoa.

Three, property rights.

Hiru, jabetza-eskubideak.

Four, modern medicine.

Lau, medikuntza modernoa.

Five, the consumer society.

Bost, kontsumo-gizartea.

And six, the work ethic.

Eta sei, lanerako etika.

You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,

Jokua jolas dezakezue ea erabilpenaren bat ahaztu zaidan

or try and boil it down to just four,

edo lau erabiletan soilik laburbiltzea

but you'll lose.

baina galduko duzue.

(Laughter)

(Algarak)

Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,

Saiatuko naiz azaltzen epe laburrean zer adierazi nahi dudan,

synthesizing the work of many economic historians

historialari ekonomiko askoren lana laburbiltzen

in the process.

prozesuan.

Competition means,

Lehiak esan nahi du,

not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,

Europan mila unitate politikoak egon ez ezik 1500. urtean

but within each of these units,

baita unitate horien barruan ere,

there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.

lehia bat zegoen bai korporazioen artean, bai erregeen artean.

The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,

Korporazio modernoen arbasoa, Londongo City-aren Korporazia,

existed in the 12th century.

XII. mendean bazegoen.

Nothing like this existed in China,

Hori bezalakoa ez zen Txinan existitzen,

where there was one monolithic state

non estatu monolitiko bat zegoen

covering a fifth of humanity,

gizateriaren bostena osatzen,

and anyone with any ambition

eta handinahiek

had to pass one standardized examination,

azterketa estandarizatua gainditu behar izan zuten,

which took three days and was very difficult

zeinek 3 egun iraun egiten zuen eta oso zaila zen

and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters

eta karaktere zenbaki handiak buruz ikasi zekarren

and very complex Confucian essay writing.

eta idazlana, Konfuziok idatzitako erara, benetan zaila.

The scientific revolution was different

Iraultza zientifikoa desberdina zen

from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world

Ekialdean lortutako zientziarekin konparatuta

in a number of crucial ways,

modu erabakigarri batzuetan,

the most important being

garrantzitsuena zen

that, through the experimental method,

metodo esperimentalaren bidez

it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.

berak gizakiei naturaren kontrola eskaini zien lehen gertatuko ez zen bezala

Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application

Adibidez: Benjamin Robins-en erabilera ikaragarria

of Newtonian physics to ballistics.

balistikaren fisika newtoniarrena.

Once you do that,

Hau egin eta gero,

your artillery becomes accurate.

artilleria bihurtzen da zehatz.

Think of what that means.

Pentsa ezazue zer esan nahi duen horrek

That really was a killer application.

Benetako erabilera hiltzailea zen.

(Laughter)

(Algarak)

Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.

Bitartean, ez zen iraultza zientifikorik inon ez.

The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,

Inperio otomandarra ez zegoen Europatik hain urrun,

but there's no scientific revolution there.

baina ez zegoen iraultza zientifikorik han.

In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,

Izan ere, haiek Taqi al-Din-aren behatokia lurreratu zuten,

because it's considered blasphemous

arnegua iruditzen zitzaielako

to inquire into the mind of God.

Jaungoikoaren adimena ikertzea.

Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;

Jabetza eskubideak: aizue, hau ez da demokrazia;

it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.

hots, legearen araua jabetza pribatu eskubideetan oinarritzen da.

That's what makes the difference

Hori da desberdintasuna

between North America and South America.

Ipar eta Hego Amerikaren artean.

You could turn up in North America

Ipar Amerikan agertzen bada norbait

having signed a deed of indenture

eskritura publikoaren ondasun-titulua sinatu izan ondoren

saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.

esaten, "Lan egingo dut doan bost urteren zehar,

You just have to feed me."

Zuk jaten besterik ez didazu eman behar,"

But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.

Baina, denboraldia amaitzean, 40 hektarearen jabe bihurtuko zara.

That's the land grant

Hori da lur-emaitza

on the bottom half of the slide.

diapositibaren beheko zatian agertzen dena.

That's not possible in Latin America

Hori ez da posible Hego Amerikan

where land is held onto

non lurraren jabetasuna esku gutxitan dago

by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.

elite txikiren eskuetan, konkistatzaileen ondorengoak, hain zuzen ere.

And you can see here the huge divergence

Eta hemen Dibergentzia Handia ikus daiteke

that happens in property ownership between North and South.

ondasunen jabetzan gertatzen dena Ipar eta Hego Amerikaren artean

Most people in rural North America

Ipar Amerikako landa-populazio gehienek

owned some land by 1900.

lurra zuten 1900. urterako.

Hardly anyone in South America did.

Ia inork Hego Amerikan.

That's another killer app.

Hori beste erabilera hiltzaile bat da.

Modern medicine in the late 19th century

Medikuntza modernoa XIX. mendearen hondarrean

began to make major breakthroughs

hasi zen aurreratzeak lortzen

against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.

gaixo infekziosoen aurka, zeintzuek pertsona asko hil egiten zituzten.

And this was another killer app --

Eta hau beste erabilera hiltzaile bat zen --

the very opposite of a killer,

aurkako hiltzailea,

because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.

berak gizakieen bizi-itxaropena bikoiztu egin zuelako eta, sarritan, are gehiago.

It even did that

Hori ere gertatu zen

in the European empires.

Europako inperioetan.

Even in places like Senegal,

Senegal bezalako lekueetan ere bai,

beginning in the early 20th century,

XX. mendearen lehenengo urteetan hasita,

there were major breakthroughs in public health,

osasun publikoan aurreratze galantak suertatu ziren,

and life expectancy began to rise.

eta bizi-itxaropena hasi zen igotzen.

It doesn't rise any faster

Eta ez zen gehiago igo

after these countries become independent.

herri horien independentzia lortu eta gero.

The empires weren't all bad.

Inperio guzti-guztiak ez ziren txarrak.

The consumer society is what you need

Kontsumo-gizartea beharrezkoa da,

for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.

Industri-Iraultzak helburua izan dezan.

You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.

Milaka pertsona beharrezkoak dira arropa-tonak janzteko

You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;

Zuek arroparen bat erosi duzue aurreko hilabetean;

I guarantee it.

Ziurtatzen dut.

That's the consumer society,

Hori da kontsumo-gizartea.

and it propels economic growth

eta garapen ekonomikoa gehiago sustatzen du

more than even technological change itself.

aldaketa teknologikoa bera baino.

Japan was the first non-Western society

Japonia zen lehenengo ez-Mendabeldeko gizarteak

to embrace it.

aldaketa hartu zuena.

The alternative,

Alternatiba,

which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,

Mahatma Gandhi-k proposatu zuena zen,

was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.

txirotasun iraunkorra mantentzea eta instituzionalizatzea.

Very few Indians today

Gaur egungo indiar gutxik

wish that India had gone down

desideratzen dute Indiak hartutako bidea

Mahatma Gandhi's road.

Mahatma Gandhi-ren bidea, hain zuzen ere.

Finally, the work ethic.

Azkenik, lanerako etika.

Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.

Max Weberrek pentsatu zuen ohiko protestanteen jarrera zela.

He was wrong.

Okerra zen.

Any culture can get the work ethic

Edozein kulturak lanerako etika eskura dezake

if the institutions are there

erakundeak badaude

to create the incentive to work.

lanerako pizgarria sortzeko.

We know this

Jakin badakigu hau

because today the work ethic

zeren eta gaurko lanerako etika

is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.

ez den aurrerago protestantea edo Mendebaldeko gertakaria.

In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.

Izan ere, mendebaldarrek euren lanerako etica galdu dute.

Today, the average Korean

Gaur egun, batezbesteko korearrak

works a thousand hours more a year

urtero mila ordu gehiago lan egiten du

than the average German --

batezbesteko alemaniarrarekin konparatuta --

a thousand.

mila ordu.

And this is part

Eta hau zati bat besterik ez da

of a really extraordinary phenomenon,

gertakari ikaragarri baten zatia,

and that is the end of the Great Divergence.

eta hau da Dibergentzia Handiaren amaiera.

Who's got the work ethic now?

Nork du lanerako etika orain?

Take a look at mathematical attainment

Begira ezazue matematika ezaguera

by 15 year-olds.

15 urtetako nerabeena.

At the top of the international league table

Nazioarteko ligaren goiko partean

according to the latest PISA study,

azkenengo PISA ikerketaren arabera,

is the Shanghai district of China.

Txinaren Shanghai barrutia dago.

The gap between Shanghai

Shanghairen

and the United Kingdom and the United States

eta Britain Handiaren eta Estatu Batuen hutsunea

is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.

U.K.-rena eta U.S.-rena bezain handia da.

and Albania and Tunisia.

eta Albania eta Tunisia.

You probably assume

Demazuen

that because the iPhone was designed in California

haiek iPhone-a Kalifornian diseinatu zutela

but assembled in China

baina Txinan mihiztatuta

that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.

eta hori dela eta Mendebaldea oraindik lehena da berrikuntza teknologiko esparruan.

You're wrong.

Oker zarete.

In terms of patents,

Patenteen kopurua kontuan hartuta,

there's no question that the East is ahead.

ez dago zalantzarik, Ekialdea aurretik doa.

Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,

Japonia denboraldi batean aurretik joan ez ezik,

South Korea has gone into third place,

Hegoaldeko Korea ere hirugarren postura heldu da.

and China is just about to overtake Germany.

eta Txina Alemania gainditzeko zorian dago.

Why?

Zergatik?

Because the killer apps can be downloaded.

Erabilera hiltzaileak deskarga daitezkeelako.

It's open source.

Kode zabala da.

Any society can adopt these institutions,

Edozein gizartek erakunde horiek har ditzake,

and when they do,

eta egiten dutenean,

they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --

haiek lortzen dute mendebaldarrek lortutakoa 1500. urtetik aurrera --

only faster.

baina azkarrago.

This is the Great Reconvergence,

Hau da Birkonbergentzia Handia,

and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.

eta zuen bizitzen istorio handiena da.

Because it's on your watch that this is happening.

Zeren eta nola suertatu ikusten ari zareten.

It's our generation

Gure belaunaldia

that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.

mendebaldarren lehentasunaren amaieraren lekukoa da.

The average American used to be more than 20 times richer

Batezbesteko amerikarra 20 aldiz aberatsagoa zen

than the average Chinese.

batezbesteko txinatarrarekin konparatuta.

Now it's just five times,

Oraintxe bertan 5 aldiz soilik,

and soon it will be 2.5 times.

eta laster 2,5 aldiz.

So I want to end with three questions

Orduan 3 galderarekin amaitu nahi dut

for the future billions,

gerorako mila milioientzat,

just ahead of 2016,

2016. urtearen inguruan,

when the United States will lose its place

noiz Estatu Batuak bere lehentasuna galduko duen

as number one economy to China.

lehentasun ekonomikoa Txinaren alde.

The first is, can you delete these apps,

Lehenengoa da, posiblea da erabilera horiek suntsitzea,

and are we in the process of doing so

eta hori egiteko prozesuan gaude

in the Western world?

Mendebaldean?

The second question is,

Bigarrena,

does the sequencing of the download matter?

deskargaren sekuentzia garrantzitsua da?

And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?

Eta agian Afrikak sekuentzia okerra izan liteke?

One obvious implication of modern economic history

Histori ekonomiko modernoaren ondorio nabaria

is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy

demokraziarako trantsizioa nahiko gogorra dela

before you've established

jabetza-pribatuen eskubide ziurrak

secure private property rights.

ezarri baino lehen.

Warning: that may not work.

Kontuz: hori ez liteke ibil.

And third, can China do without

Eta hirugarrena, Txina arrakastatsua izan liteke

killer app number three?

erabilera hiltzaile hirugarrena jarri ezean?

That's the one that John Locke systematized

Hori da John Locke-k sistematizatu zuena

when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights

askatasuna jabetza-pribatuen eskubideetan oinarritzen zela esan zuenean

and the protection of law.

eta legearen babesean ere bai.

That's the basis

Hori da oinarria

for the Western model

mendebaldeko eredurako

of representative government.

gobernu adierazgarriarena, hain zuzen ere.

Now this picture shows the demolition

Orain, argazki honek Ai Weiewei artista txinatarraren estudioaren

of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio

suntsipena aurkezten du

in Shanghai earlier this year.

Shanghai-n urte honetako hasieran.

He's now free again,

Berriro aske dago,

having been detained, as you know, for some time.

atxilotu izan ondoren denboraldi batean.

But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.

Baina ez dut uste berak estudioa berreraiki egin duenik.

Winston Churchill once defined civilization

Winston Churchill-ek behin zibilizazioa definitu zuen

in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.

berak emandako hitzaldi batean zorigaiztoko 1938. urtean.

And I think these words really nail it:

Eta uste dut bete-betean asmatzen zuela:

"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.

"(Zibilizazioak) esan nahi du gizarte bat zibilen iritzian oinarritzen dela.

It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,

Berak esan nahi du bortizkeria, gudari eta buruzagi despotikoen arauak,

the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,

gudaren eta kanpamentuen baldintzak, iskanbilak eta tirania,

give place to parliaments where laws are made,

gauza guzti horiek bidea ematen diote parlamentuei non legeak egiten diren,

and independent courts of justice

eta menpekotasunik gabeko justizia auzitegietara

in which over long periods those laws are maintained.

zeinetan luzaroan lege horiek mantentzen diren.

That is civilization --

Hori da zibilizazioa --

and in its soil grow continually

eta bere lurzoruan hazten da etengabe

freedom, comfort and culture,"

askatasuna, erosotasuna eta kultura,"

what all TEDsters care about most.

TED saioetan partehartzaileei gehien interesatzen zaiena.

"When civilization reigns in any country,

"Zibilizazioa herri batean nagusia denean,

a wider and less harassed life

berak askoz zabalago eta neketsuago den bizitza

is afforded to the masses of the people."

eskaintzen die giza-taldeei."

That's so true.

Hori guztiz egia da.

I don't think the decline of Western civilization

Nik ez dut uste mendebaldeko zibilizazioaren beherakada

is inevitable,

saihestezina denik,

because I don't think history operates

historia modu horretan dabilenik uste ez dudalako

in this kind of life-cycle model,

ziklo-bizi eredu honetan,

beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's

Thomas Cole-k modu ikaragarrian irudiztatu egin zituen

"Course of Empire" paintings.

"Inperioaren ibilera" margolanak.

That's not the way history works.

Historia ez da horrela.

That's not the way the West rose,

Mendebaldea ez zen horrela igo,

and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.

eta ez dut uste hori izango denik Mendebaldeko beherakada.

The West may collapse very suddenly.

Mendebaldeak bat-batean kolapsa liteke,

Complex civilizations do that,

Zibilizazio konplexuek horrela egiten dute,

because they operate, most of the time,

gehienetan, horrela gertatzen delako,

on the edge of chaos.

kaosaren ertzean.

That's one of the most profound insights

Hori hausnarketa sakonetariko bat da

to come out of the historical study of complex institutions

erakunde konplexuen ikerketa historikoaren ondorioz

like civilizations.

zibilizazioak bezala.

No, we may hang on,

Ez, geldi gintezke,

despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,

nahiz eta zorren zama handia metatu,

despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic

nahiz eta nabarmen den lanerako etika galdu dugula

and other parts of our historical mojo.

baita gure xarma historikoa ere.

But one thing is for sure,

Baina gauza bat argi dago,

the Great Divergence

Aizue, Dibergentzia Handia

is over, folks.

amaitu egin da.

Thanks very much.

Mila esker

(Applause)

(Txaloak)

Bruno Giussani: Niall,

Bruno Giussani, Niall

I am just curious

Jakin nahi dut

about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,

altxatzen ari den gure munduaren beste zati bati buruz,

which is Latin America.

hots, Hego Amerika.

What's your view on that?

Zein da zure iritzia?

Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking

Niall Ferguson: Ondo nik besterik ez dut hitz egiten

about the rise of the East;

Ekialdearen agerraldiari buruz;

I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,

gainarekoen agerraldiari buruz hitz egiten dut,

and that includes South America.

eta han Hego Amerika barnean sartuta dago.

I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,

Nik behin nire kide bati Harvard-en galdetu nion,

"Hey, is South America part of the West?"

"Aizu, Hego Amerika Mendebaldearen zatia al da?"

He was an expert in Latin American history.

Bera Hego Amerikaren historiaren aditua zen,

He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."

Erantzun zuen, "Ez dakit, horretaz hausnartu behar izango dut."

That tells you something really important.

Horrek zerbait garrantzitsua esaten dizu.

I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,

Nik uste dut bereziki Brasil ikusten baduzu,

but also Chile,

baita Txile ere

which was in many ways the one that led the way

esparru askotan bidea buru zen

in transforming the institutions of economic life,

bizitza ekonomikoaren erakundeak eraldatzeko,

there's a very bright future indeed.

gero distiratsua daukatela, benetan.

So my story really is

Beraz nire istorioa da

as much about that convergence in the Americas

Ameriketan gertatutako konbergentziari buruz

as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.

baita Eurasian ere.

BG: And there is this impression

BG: Eta badago iritzia

that North America and Europe

Ipar Amerika eta Europa

are not really paying attention

ez dutela jaramonik egiten

to these trends.

joera horietara.

Mostly they're worried about each other.

Haiek elkarren kezka daukate.

The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.

Amerikarrek uste dute Europaren ereduak laster desegingo dela.

The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.

Europarrek, ordea, uste dute amerikarrek laster eztanda egingo dutela.

And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.

Eta badirudi horretaz kezkatzen garela soilik.

NF: I think the fiscal crisis

NF: Nik uste dut zerga-krisia

that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --

Mundu Garatuan oraintxe bertan ikusten duguna -- Atlantikoaren bi aldeetan --

is essentially the same thing

gauza bera dela funtsean

taking different forms

modu desberdinak hartu arren

in terms of political culture.

kultura politiko desberdinetan oinarrituta.

And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --

Eta krisi horrek badu bere ikuspegi estrukturala --

it's partly to do with demographics.

eta hein batean demografiarekin badu zerikusirik

But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis

baita krisi masiboarekin ere, jakina

that followed excessive leverage,

zein palankaz jasotze gehiegiren atzetik zihoala

excessive borrowing in the private sector.

sektor pribatuaren gehiegizko maileguak.

That crisis,

Krisi hori

which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,

arreta handiagoaren fokua izan dena, nirea barne.

I think is an epiphenomenon.

Nik uste dut epifenomenoa dela.

The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,

Finantza-krisia, egia esanda, oso fenomeno historiko txikia da.

which has just accelerated

zeinek azkartu egin duen

this huge shift,

aldaketa nabari hau.

which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.

Horrek milurteko erdiko mendebaldarren igoera bukatuarazten du.

I think that's its real importance.

Nik uste dut hori garrantzi handikoa dela.

BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)

BG: Niall, mila esker. (NF: MIla esker, Bruno.)

(Applause)

(Txaloak)