Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity

352,694 views ・ 2011-09-19

TED


Mesedez, egin klik bikoitza beheko ingelesezko azpitituluetan bideoa erreproduzitzeko.

Translator: Alvaro Moya Reviewer: Tania Filgueira
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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Hitz egin dezagun mila milioiei buruz.
00:18
Let's talk about
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Hitz egin dezagun
00:21
past and future billions.
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iraganaldiko eta gaurko mila milioiei buruz.
00:24
We know
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Jakin badakigu
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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106 mila milioi pertsona inguruan
00:29
have ever lived.
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bizi egin direla.
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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Eta badakigu horietako gehienak hilda daudela.
00:34
And we also know
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Eta badakigu ere bai
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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horietako gehienak Asian bizi direla edo zirela.
00:38
And we also know
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Eta badakigu ere bai
00:40
that most of them were or are very poor --
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horietako gehienak oso txiroak direla edo zirela --
00:44
did not live for very long.
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ez zirela luzaroan bizi.
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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Hitz egin dezagun mila milioiei buruz.
00:50
Let's talk about
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00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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aberastasunaren 195.000 mila milioi dolarrei buruz
00:56
in the world today.
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gaurko munduan.
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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Jakin badakigu aberastasuna horien gehiengoa
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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1800. urtetik aurrera egin zela.
01:05
And we know that most of it
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Eta badakigu kantitate horien gehiena,
01:08
is currently owned
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gaur egun,
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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Mendebaldarren eskuetan dagoela.
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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Europarrak, Ipar Amerikarrak, Australasiarrak.
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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Munduko populazioaren %19a gaur egun.
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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Mendebaldarrek aberastasun horren bi heren dute.
01:25
Economic historians
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Historialari ekonomikoek
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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egoera horri "Dibergentzia Handia" esaten diote.
01:30
And this slide here
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Eta diapositiba hau
01:32
is the best simplification
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Dibergentzia Handia-ren
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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sinplifikazio hoberena da.
01:36
I can offer you.
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Nik zuei eskain diezazuekedala.
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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Funtsezkoan bi ratio dira
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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biztanle bakoitzeko BPG-rena, hain zuzen ere,
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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biztanle bakoitzeko barne produktu gordina,
01:45
so average income.
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batezbesteko diru-sartzea.
01:47
One, the red line,
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Bata, lerro gorria,
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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britaniarren eta indiarren artean
01:51
per capita income.
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diru-sartzearen ratioa da.
01:53
And the blue line
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Bestea, lerro urdina
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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amerikarren eta txinatarren arteko ratioa da.
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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Eta grafiko honek 1500. urte arte barne hartzen du.
02:00
And you can see here
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Eta hemen ikus dezakezue
02:02
that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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Divergentzia Handi esponentzial bat dagoela.
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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Hasieran, lerroak elkarren ondoan zeuden.
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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Izan ere, 1500. urtean
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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batezbesteko txinatarra batezbesteko iparamerikarra baino aberatsagoa zen.
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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1970eko hamarkadara heltzean
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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non grafikoa amaitu zen,
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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batezbesteko britanairra 10 aldiz aberatsagoa da
02:20
than the average Indian.
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batezbesteko indiar batekin konparatuz.
02:22
And that's allowing
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Eta desberdintasun horren zergatia da
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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bizi-kosturen desberdintasunak.
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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Eta hori erosteko gaitasunaren parekotasunean datza.
02:29
The average American
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Batezbesteko amerikarra
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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20 aldiz aberatsagoa da
02:33
than the average Chinese
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batezbesteko txinatarrekin konparatuta
02:35
by the 1970s.
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1970. hamarkadan.
02:37
So why?
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Zergatik?
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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Hau ez da istorio ekonomiko bat soilik.
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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10 herri horiek hartzen badituzue
02:45
that went on to become
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zeintzuk bihurtu ziren
02:48
the Western empires,
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Mendebaldeko inperio
02:50
in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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1500. urtean oso herri txikiak ziren --
02:53
five percent of the world's land surface,
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mundu-azalerako %5a,
02:55
16 percent of its population,
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munduko populazioaren %16a,
02:57
maybe 20 percent of its income.
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eta agian aberastasunaren %20a.
03:00
By 1913,
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1913. urtean
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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10 herri horiek, gehi Estatu Batuak
03:05
controlled vast global empires --
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mundu osoko inperio zabalak kontrolatzen zituzten
03:08
58 percent of the world's territory,
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mundu-azalerako %58a
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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populazioaren ehuneko berbera
03:13
and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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eta oso zati handia,
03:16
of global economic output.
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ia munduko ekoizpenaren hiru laurden.
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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Eta, adi, etekin horien gehiengoa jatorrizko herrietara joan zen,
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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inperioaren hiriburuetara,
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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eta ez jabetza kolonialetara
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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Baina, inperialismoa ez da erruduna --
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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pertsona asko egiten saiatu diren arren
03:33
for two reasons.
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bi arrazoirengatik.
03:36
One, empire was the least original thing
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Bata, inperioa haiek egindako originaltasun gutxiagoko gauza zen
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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Mendebaldeak, hain zuzen ere, 1500. urtetik aurrera.
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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Herri guztiek egin zituzten inperioak.
03:45
They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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Ekialdeko aurretiko inperioak garaitu zituzten
03:48
like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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mongoliarrak eta otomandarrak, adibidez.
03:50
So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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Orduan ez dirudi inperioa oso adierazpen handia denik
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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Dibergentzia Handia ulertzeko.
03:55
In any case, as you may remember,
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Nolanahi ere, gogora ezazue,
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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Dibergentzia Handia 1970. hamarkadan bere maila gorenera heldu zela,
04:00
some considerable time after decolonization.
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deskolonizazioa gertatu ostean, urte dexente gainera.
04:04
This is not a new question.
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Hau ez da galdera berri bat.
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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Samuel Johnson,
04:08
the great lexicographer,
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lexikografiko nagusia,
04:10
[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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bere pertsonaiaren zehar, Rasselas, kontrajartzen zuen
04:13
in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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bere eleberrian "Rasselas, Abisiniako printzea"
04:16
published in 1759.
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1759. urtean argitaratuta.
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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"Zeren bidez dira Europarrak hain boteretsuak;
04:22
or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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edo, zergatik haiek Afrika eta Asia erraz bisita dezaketen
04:25
for trade or conquest,
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salerosteko edo menderatzeko,
04:28
cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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eta afrikarrek eta asiarrek ezin dute
04:30
invade their coasts,
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europarren kostaldeak indarrez hartu,
04:32
plant colonies in their ports,
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euren portuetan koloniak jarri
04:34
and give laws to their natural princes?
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eta euren jatorrizko printzeei legeak eman?
04:37
The same wind that carries them back
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Haiek itzultzen dituen haize berberak
04:40
would bring us thither?"
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hara eraman ahal izango gaitugu?"
04:42
That's a great question.
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Hori da gakoa.
04:44
And you know what,
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Eta jakin behar duzue,
04:46
it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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galdera berbera egin zutela
04:48
by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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gainerakoek ere -- munduaren gainerakoan bizi direnek --
04:51
like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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Ibrahim Muteferrika bezala,
04:54
an Ottoman official,
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ofizial otomandar bat,
04:56
the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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inprenta sartu zuen gizonak, nahiko berandu,
04:59
to the Ottoman Empire --
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Otomandar Inperioan --
05:01
who said in a book published in 1731,
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zeinek 1731. urtean argitaratutako liburu batean esan zuen,
05:04
"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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"Zergatik iraganean hain ahul ziren herri kristauak
05:06
compared with Muslim nations
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herri musulmanekin konparatuta
05:08
begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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hasi dira menperatzen hainbeste lur garai modernoetan
05:12
and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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baita aurreko garaipenak lortutako armada otomandarrari irabazi ere?"
05:16
Unlike Rasselas,
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Rasselas ez bezala,
05:18
Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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Muteferrika-k bazuen erantzuna galdera horretarako,
05:20
which was correct.
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zuzena zen erantzuna.
05:23
He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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Berak zioen "haiek badauzkatelako legeak eta eskubideak
05:27
invented by reason."
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arrazoian oinarrituta."
05:31
It's not geography.
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Hau ez da geografia.
05:34
You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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Norbaitek pentsa dezake Dibergentzia Handia azal dezakegula
05:36
in terms of geography.
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geografikoki.
05:38
We know that's wrong,
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Badakigu hori gaizki dagoela,
05:40
because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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guk XX. mendean bi esperimentu natural nagusi gauzatu genituelako
05:42
to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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geografiak erakundeak baino garrantzi handiagoa duenentz ikusteko.
05:44
We took all the Germans,
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Guk alemaniar guztiak hartu genituen,
05:47
we divided them roughly in two,
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gutxi gorabehera bi zatitan banandu,
05:49
and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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eta ekialdean bizi zirenei komunismoa eman genien,
05:52
and you see the result.
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eta ondorioa ikus dezakezue.
05:55
Within an incredibly short period of time,
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Oso denboraldi laburrean,
05:57
people living in the German Democratic Republic
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Alemaniako Errepublika Demokratikoan bizi zirenek
05:59
produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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Trabants ekoiztu zituzten, Trabbi-a,
06:02
one of the world's worst ever cars,
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munduko auto txarrenetariko bat,
06:05
while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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Mendebaldeko biztanleek, halere, Mercedes Benz ekoiztu zuten.
06:08
If you still don't believe me,
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Oraindik ez banauzue sinesten,
06:10
we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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guk Koreako Penintsulan ere gauzatu genuen esperimentua.
06:12
And we decided we'd take Koreans
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Eta erabaki genuen korear batzuk hartuko genituzkeela
06:14
in roughly the same geographical place
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gutxi gorabehera leku berekoak
06:16
with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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eta, adi, funtsezko kultura tradizional berarekin,
06:20
and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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eta bi zatitan banandu genituen, eta iparraldekoei komunismoa eman genien.
06:23
And the result is an even bigger divergence
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Eta ondorioa da are dibergentzia handiagoa
06:26
in a very short space of time
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oso denboraldi laburrean
06:28
than happened in Germany.
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Alemaniarekin konparatuta.
06:30
Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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Ez da oso dibergentzia handia mugen soldaduen jantzia kontuan hartuta,
06:34
but in almost every other respect,
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baina oso handia beste esparruetan,
06:36
it's a huge divergence.
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benetazko dibergentzia handia.
06:38
Which leads me to think
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Horrek pentsatuarazten dit
06:40
that neither geography nor national character,
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ez geografia ez izaera nazionala,
06:42
popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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oso azalpen hedatuak gai honetarako izan arren,
06:44
are really significant.
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azalpen adierazgarriak ez direla.
06:47
It's the ideas.
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Ideiak dira.
06:49
It's the institutions.
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Erakundeak dira.
06:51
This must be true
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Hau egia izan behar da
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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eskoziar batek esan zuelako.
06:55
And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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Eta uste dut eskoziar bakarra naizela hemen Edinburgh TED saioan.
06:58
So let me just explain to you
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Orduan azalduko dizuet
07:00
that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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mundu osoko gizaki argiena eskoziarra zela.
07:03
He was Adam Smith --
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Adam Smith --
07:05
not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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ez Billy Connolly, ez Sean Connery --
07:08
though he is very smart indeed.
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oso argia izan arren benetan.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Algarak)
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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Smith -- eta nik nahi dut zuek joatea
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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eta agurtzea bere estatuaren aurrean Royal Mile-n;
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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oso estatua bikaina da--
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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Smith, bere liburuan "Herrien aberastasuna"
07:23
published in 1776 --
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1776. urtean argitaratuta --
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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urte hartako gertakaera garrantzitsuena, hain zuzen ere ...
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Algarak)
07:31
You bet.
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Baietz izan.
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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Gure kolonia txikiaren batean arazoak sortu ziren, baina ...
07:37
(Laughter)
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(Algarak)
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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"Badirudi Txina oso denbora luzaroan geldirik egon dela,
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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eta seguraski orain dela denbora dexente oparitasun asko hartu zituela
07:44
which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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eta horrek badu zerikusirik bere legeen eta erakundeen naturarekin.
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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Baina laudorio hau askoz txikiago izan liteke
07:50
to what, with other laws and institutions,
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beste batekin konparatuta, beste lege eta erakunde batzuekin,
07:53
the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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bere lurzoruaren, klimaren eta kokapenaren natura
07:55
might admit of."
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eskura litekeela."
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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Bai zuzena eta originala dela.
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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Eta orain dela denbora asko esan zuen.
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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Baina, badakizue, hau da TED entzunaldia,
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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eta erakundeei buruz hitz egiten jarraitzen badut,
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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loak hartuko zaituzte.
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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Orduan hau dena itzuliko dut zuek uler dezakezuen hizkuntza batera.
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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Dei dezagun erabilpen hiltzaileak.
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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Nik azaldu nahi dizuet bazirela 6 eralbilpen hiltzailek
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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zeintzuk Mendelbadea munduaren gainerakoengandik bereizten zuten.
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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Eta zuen sakelako telefonoetako antzekoak dira,
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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oso sinpleak direlako.
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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Ikonoak dira; klikatu besterik ez duzu egin behar.
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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Baina ikonoaren atzetik, oso kode konplexua dago.
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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Gauza bera gertatzen da erakundeekin.
08:34
There are six
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Sei dira
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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nik pentsatzen dut sei horiek Dibergentzia Handia azaltzen dutela.
08:39
One, competition.
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Bat, lehia.
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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Bi, iraultza zientifikoa.
08:43
Three, property rights.
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Hiru, jabetza-eskubideak.
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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Lau, medikuntza modernoa.
08:47
Five, the consumer society.
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Bost, kontsumo-gizartea.
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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Eta sei, lanerako etika.
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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Jokua jolas dezakezue ea erabilpenaren bat ahaztu zaidan
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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edo lau erabiletan soilik laburbiltzea
08:56
but you'll lose.
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baina galduko duzue.
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Algarak)
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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Saiatuko naiz azaltzen epe laburrean zer adierazi nahi dudan,
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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historialari ekonomiko askoren lana laburbiltzen
09:06
in the process.
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prozesuan.
09:08
Competition means,
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Lehiak esan nahi du,
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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Europan mila unitate politikoak egon ez ezik 1500. urtean
09:12
but within each of these units,
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baita unitate horien barruan ere,
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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lehia bat zegoen bai korporazioen artean, bai erregeen artean.
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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Korporazio modernoen arbasoa, Londongo City-aren Korporazia,
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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XII. mendean bazegoen.
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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Hori bezalakoa ez zen Txinan existitzen,
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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non estatu monolitiko bat zegoen
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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gizateriaren bostena osatzen,
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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eta handinahiek
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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azterketa estandarizatua gainditu behar izan zuten,
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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zeinek 3 egun iraun egiten zuen eta oso zaila zen
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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eta karaktere zenbaki handiak buruz ikasi zekarren
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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eta idazlana, Konfuziok idatzitako erara, benetan zaila.
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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Iraultza zientifikoa desberdina zen
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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Ekialdean lortutako zientziarekin konparatuta
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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modu erabakigarri batzuetan,
09:50
the most important being
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garrantzitsuena zen
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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metodo esperimentalaren bidez
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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berak gizakiei naturaren kontrola eskaini zien lehen gertatuko ez zen bezala
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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Adibidez: Benjamin Robins-en erabilera ikaragarria
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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balistikaren fisika newtoniarrena.
10:04
Once you do that,
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Hau egin eta gero,
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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artilleria bihurtzen da zehatz.
10:09
Think of what that means.
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Pentsa ezazue zer esan nahi duen horrek
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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Benetako erabilera hiltzailea zen.
10:13
(Laughter)
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(Algarak)
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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Bitartean, ez zen iraultza zientifikorik inon ez.
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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Inperio otomandarra ez zegoen Europatik hain urrun,
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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baina ez zegoen iraultza zientifikorik han.
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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Izan ere, haiek Taqi al-Din-aren behatokia lurreratu zuten,
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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arnegua iruditzen zitzaielako
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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Jaungoikoaren adimena ikertzea.
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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Jabetza eskubideak: aizue, hau ez da demokrazia;
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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hots, legearen araua jabetza pribatu eskubideetan oinarritzen da.
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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Hori da desberdintasuna
10:39
between North America and South America.
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Ipar eta Hego Amerikaren artean.
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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Ipar Amerikan agertzen bada norbait
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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eskritura publikoaren ondasun-titulua sinatu izan ondoren
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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esaten, "Lan egingo dut doan bost urteren zehar,
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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Zuk jaten besterik ez didazu eman behar,"
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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Baina, denboraldia amaitzean, 40 hektarearen jabe bihurtuko zara.
10:52
That's the land grant
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Hori da lur-emaitza
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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diapositibaren beheko zatian agertzen dena.
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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Hori ez da posible Hego Amerikan
10:59
where land is held onto
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non lurraren jabetasuna esku gutxitan dago
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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elite txikiren eskuetan, konkistatzaileen ondorengoak, hain zuzen ere.
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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Eta hemen Dibergentzia Handia ikus daiteke
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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ondasunen jabetzan gertatzen dena Ipar eta Hego Amerikaren artean
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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Ipar Amerikako landa-populazio gehienek
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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lurra zuten 1900. urterako.
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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Ia inork Hego Amerikan.
11:15
That's another killer app.
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Hori beste erabilera hiltzaile bat da.
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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Medikuntza modernoa XIX. mendearen hondarrean
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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hasi zen aurreratzeak lortzen
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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gaixo infekziosoen aurka, zeintzuek pertsona asko hil egiten zituzten.
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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Eta hau beste erabilera hiltzaile bat zen --
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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aurkako hiltzailea,
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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berak gizakieen bizi-itxaropena bikoiztu egin zuelako eta, sarritan, are gehiago.
11:31
It even did that
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Hori ere gertatu zen
11:33
in the European empires.
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Europako inperioetan.
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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Senegal bezalako lekueetan ere bai,
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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XX. mendearen lehenengo urteetan hasita,
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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osasun publikoan aurreratze galantak suertatu ziren,
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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eta bizi-itxaropena hasi zen igotzen.
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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Eta ez zen gehiago igo
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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herri horien independentzia lortu eta gero.
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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Inperio guzti-guztiak ez ziren txarrak.
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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Kontsumo-gizartea beharrezkoa da,
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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Industri-Iraultzak helburua izan dezan.
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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Milaka pertsona beharrezkoak dira arropa-tonak janzteko
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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Zuek arroparen bat erosi duzue aurreko hilabetean;
11:58
I guarantee it.
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Ziurtatzen dut.
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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Hori da kontsumo-gizartea.
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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eta garapen ekonomikoa gehiago sustatzen du
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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aldaketa teknologikoa bera baino.
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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Japonia zen lehenengo ez-Mendabeldeko gizarteak
12:09
to embrace it.
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aldaketa hartu zuena.
12:11
The alternative,
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Alternatiba,
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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Mahatma Gandhi-k proposatu zuena zen,
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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txirotasun iraunkorra mantentzea eta instituzionalizatzea.
12:18
Very few Indians today
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Gaur egungo indiar gutxik
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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desideratzen dute Indiak hartutako bidea
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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Mahatma Gandhi-ren bidea, hain zuzen ere.
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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Azkenik, lanerako etika.
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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Max Weberrek pentsatu zuen ohiko protestanteen jarrera zela.
12:30
He was wrong.
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Okerra zen.
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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Edozein kulturak lanerako etika eskura dezake
12:34
if the institutions are there
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erakundeak badaude
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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lanerako pizgarria sortzeko.
12:38
We know this
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Jakin badakigu hau
12:40
because today the work ethic
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zeren eta gaurko lanerako etika
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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ez den aurrerago protestantea edo Mendebaldeko gertakaria.
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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Izan ere, mendebaldarrek euren lanerako etica galdu dute.
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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Gaur egun, batezbesteko korearrak
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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urtero mila ordu gehiago lan egiten du
12:55
than the average German --
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batezbesteko alemaniarrarekin konparatuta --
12:57
a thousand.
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mila ordu.
12:59
And this is part
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Eta hau zati bat besterik ez da
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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gertakari ikaragarri baten zatia,
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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eta hau da Dibergentzia Handiaren amaiera.
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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Nork du lanerako etika orain?
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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Begira ezazue matematika ezaguera
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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15 urtetako nerabeena.
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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Nazioarteko ligaren goiko partean
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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azkenengo PISA ikerketaren arabera,
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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Txinaren Shanghai barrutia dago.
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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Shanghairen
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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eta Britain Handiaren eta Estatu Batuen hutsunea
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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U.K.-rena eta U.S.-rena bezain handia da.
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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eta Albania eta Tunisia.
13:32
You probably assume
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Demazuen
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
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haiek iPhone-a Kalifornian diseinatu zutela
13:36
but assembled in China
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baina Txinan mihiztatuta
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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eta hori dela eta Mendebaldea oraindik lehena da berrikuntza teknologiko esparruan.
13:41
You're wrong.
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Oker zarete.
13:43
In terms of patents,
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Patenteen kopurua kontuan hartuta,
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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ez dago zalantzarik, Ekialdea aurretik doa.
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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Japonia denboraldi batean aurretik joan ez ezik,
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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Hegoaldeko Korea ere hirugarren postura heldu da.
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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eta Txina Alemania gainditzeko zorian dago.
13:56
Why?
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Zergatik?
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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Erabilera hiltzaileak deskarga daitezkeelako.
14:00
It's open source.
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Kode zabala da.
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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Edozein gizartek erakunde horiek har ditzake,
14:04
and when they do,
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eta egiten dutenean,
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
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haiek lortzen dute mendebaldarrek lortutakoa 1500. urtetik aurrera --
14:10
only faster.
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baina azkarrago.
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
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Hau da Birkonbergentzia Handia,
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
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eta zuen bizitzen istorio handiena da.
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
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Zeren eta nola suertatu ikusten ari zareten.
14:21
It's our generation
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Gure belaunaldia
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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mendebaldarren lehentasunaren amaieraren lekukoa da.
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
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Batezbesteko amerikarra 20 aldiz aberatsagoa zen
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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batezbesteko txinatarrarekin konparatuta.
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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Oraintxe bertan 5 aldiz soilik,
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
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eta laster 2,5 aldiz.
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
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Orduan 3 galderarekin amaitu nahi dut
14:36
for the future billions,
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gerorako mila milioientzat,
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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2016. urtearen inguruan,
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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noiz Estatu Batuak bere lehentasuna galduko duen
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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lehentasun ekonomikoa Txinaren alde.
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
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Lehenengoa da, posiblea da erabilera horiek suntsitzea,
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
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eta hori egiteko prozesuan gaude
14:52
in the Western world?
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Mendebaldean?
14:54
The second question is,
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Bigarrena,
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
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deskargaren sekuentzia garrantzitsua da?
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
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Eta agian Afrikak sekuentzia okerra izan liteke?
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
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Histori ekonomiko modernoaren ondorio nabaria
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
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demokraziarako trantsizioa nahiko gogorra dela
15:10
before you've established
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jabetza-pribatuen eskubide ziurrak
15:12
secure private property rights.
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ezarri baino lehen.
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
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Kontuz: hori ez liteke ibil.
15:18
And third, can China do without
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Eta hirugarrena, Txina arrakastatsua izan liteke
15:20
killer app number three?
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erabilera hiltzaile hirugarrena jarri ezean?
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
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Hori da John Locke-k sistematizatu zuena
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
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askatasuna jabetza-pribatuen eskubideetan oinarritzen zela esan zuenean
15:30
and the protection of law.
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eta legearen babesean ere bai.
15:32
That's the basis
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Hori da oinarria
15:34
for the Western model
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mendebaldeko eredurako
15:36
of representative government.
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gobernu adierazgarriarena, hain zuzen ere.
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
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Orain, argazki honek Ai Weiewei artista txinatarraren estudioaren
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
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suntsipena aurkezten du
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
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Shanghai-n urte honetako hasieran.
15:46
He's now free again,
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Berriro aske dago,
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
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atxilotu izan ondoren denboraldi batean.
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
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Baina ez dut uste berak estudioa berreraiki egin duenik.
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
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Winston Churchill-ek behin zibilizazioa definitu zuen
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
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berak emandako hitzaldi batean zorigaiztoko 1938. urtean.
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
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Eta uste dut bete-betean asmatzen zuela:
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
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"(Zibilizazioak) esan nahi du gizarte bat zibilen iritzian oinarritzen dela.
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
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Berak esan nahi du bortizkeria, gudari eta buruzagi despotikoen arauak,
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
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gudaren eta kanpamentuen baldintzak, iskanbilak eta tirania,
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
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gauza guzti horiek bidea ematen diote parlamentuei non legeak egiten diren,
16:19
and independent courts of justice
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eta menpekotasunik gabeko justizia auzitegietara
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
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zeinetan luzaroan lege horiek mantentzen diren.
16:24
That is civilization --
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Hori da zibilizazioa --
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
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eta bere lurzoruan hazten da etengabe
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
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askatasuna, erosotasuna eta kultura,"
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
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TED saioetan partehartzaileei gehien interesatzen zaiena.
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
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"Zibilizazioa herri batean nagusia denean,
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
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berak askoz zabalago eta neketsuago den bizitza
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
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eskaintzen die giza-taldeei."
16:44
That's so true.
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Hori guztiz egia da.
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
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Nik ez dut uste mendebaldeko zibilizazioaren beherakada
16:51
is inevitable,
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saihestezina denik,
16:53
because I don't think history operates
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historia modu horretan dabilenik uste ez dudalako
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
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ziklo-bizi eredu honetan,
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
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Thomas Cole-k modu ikaragarrian irudiztatu egin zituen
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
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"Inperioaren ibilera" margolanak.
17:03
That's not the way history works.
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Historia ez da horrela.
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
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Mendebaldea ez zen horrela igo,
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
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eta ez dut uste hori izango denik Mendebaldeko beherakada.
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
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Mendebaldeak bat-batean kolapsa liteke,
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
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Zibilizazio konplexuek horrela egiten dute,
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
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gehienetan, horrela gertatzen delako,
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
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kaosaren ertzean.
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
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Hori hausnarketa sakonetariko bat da
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
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erakunde konplexuen ikerketa historikoaren ondorioz
17:27
like civilizations.
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zibilizazioak bezala.
17:30
No, we may hang on,
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Ez, geldi gintezke,
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
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nahiz eta zorren zama handia metatu,
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
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nahiz eta nabarmen den lanerako etika galdu dugula
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
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baita gure xarma historikoa ere.
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
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Baina gauza bat argi dago,
17:44
the Great Divergence
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Aizue, Dibergentzia Handia
17:46
is over, folks.
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amaitu egin da.
17:48
Thanks very much.
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Mila esker
17:50
(Applause)
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(Txaloak)
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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Bruno Giussani, Niall
18:17
I am just curious
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Jakin nahi dut
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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altxatzen ari den gure munduaren beste zati bati buruz,
18:22
which is Latin America.
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hots, Hego Amerika.
18:25
What's your view on that?
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Zein da zure iritzia?
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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Niall Ferguson: Ondo nik besterik ez dut hitz egiten
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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Ekialdearen agerraldiari buruz;
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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gainarekoen agerraldiari buruz hitz egiten dut,
18:34
and that includes South America.
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eta han Hego Amerika barnean sartuta dago.
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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Nik behin nire kide bati Harvard-en galdetu nion,
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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"Aizu, Hego Amerika Mendebaldearen zatia al da?"
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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Bera Hego Amerikaren historiaren aditua zen,
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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Erantzun zuen, "Ez dakit, horretaz hausnartu behar izango dut."
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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Horrek zerbait garrantzitsua esaten dizu.
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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Nik uste dut bereziki Brasil ikusten baduzu,
18:48
but also Chile,
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baita Txile ere
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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esparru askotan bidea buru zen
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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bizitza ekonomikoaren erakundeak eraldatzeko,
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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gero distiratsua daukatela, benetan.
18:59
So my story really is
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Beraz nire istorioa da
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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Ameriketan gertatutako konbergentziari buruz
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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baita Eurasian ere.
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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BG: Eta badago iritzia
19:08
that North America and Europe
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Ipar Amerika eta Europa
19:10
are not really paying attention
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ez dutela jaramonik egiten
19:12
to these trends.
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joera horietara.
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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Haiek elkarren kezka daukate.
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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Amerikarrek uste dute Europaren ereduak laster desegingo dela.
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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Europarrek, ordea, uste dute amerikarrek laster eztanda egingo dutela.
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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Eta badirudi horretaz kezkatzen garela soilik.
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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NF: Nik uste dut zerga-krisia
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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Mundu Garatuan oraintxe bertan ikusten duguna -- Atlantikoaren bi aldeetan --
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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gauza bera dela funtsean
19:33
taking different forms
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modu desberdinak hartu arren
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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kultura politiko desberdinetan oinarrituta.
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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Eta krisi horrek badu bere ikuspegi estrukturala --
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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eta hein batean demografiarekin badu zerikusirik
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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baita krisi masiboarekin ere, jakina
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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zein palankaz jasotze gehiegiren atzetik zihoala
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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sektor pribatuaren gehiegizko maileguak.
19:50
That crisis,
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Krisi hori
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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arreta handiagoaren fokua izan dena, nirea barne.
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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Nik uste dut epifenomenoa dela.
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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Finantza-krisia, egia esanda, oso fenomeno historiko txikia da.
20:00
which has just accelerated
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zeinek azkartu egin duen
20:02
this huge shift,
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aldaketa nabari hau.
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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Horrek milurteko erdiko mendebaldarren igoera bukatuarazten du.
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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Nik uste dut hori garrantzi handikoa dela.
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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BG: Niall, mila esker. (NF: MIla esker, Bruno.)
20:10
(Applause)
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(Txaloak)
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