Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity

Prevoditelj: Matija Stepic Recezent: Katarina Smetko

Let's talk about billions.

Razgovarajmo o milijardama.

Let's talk about

Razgovarajmo o

past and future billions.

prošlim i budućim milijardama.

We know

Znamo

that about 106 billion people

da je oko 106 milijardi ljudi

have ever lived.

živjelo do sada.

And we know that most of them are dead.

I znamo da je većina njih mrtva.

And we also know

Također znamo

that most of them live or lived in Asia.

da većina njih živi ili je živjela u Aziji.

And we also know

Te također znamo

that most of them were or are very poor --

da je većina njih bila ili jest vrlo siromašna --

did not live for very long.

nisu živjeli jako dugo.

Let's talk about billions.

Razgovarajmo o milijardama.

Let's talk about

Razgovarajmo o

the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth

195.000 milijardi dolara bogatstva

in the world today.

koje trenutno postoji na svijetu.

We know that most of that wealth

Znamo da je većina tog bogatstva

was made after the year 1800.

stvorena nakon 1800. godine.

And we know that most of it

I znamo da je većina toga

is currently owned

trenutno u posjedu

by people we might call Westerners:

ljudi koje bismo mogli nazvati zapadnjacima:

Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.

stanovnici Europe, Sjeverne Amerike, Australazije.

19 percent of the world's population today,

19 posto današnje svjetske populacije,

Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.

zapadnjaci, posjeduju dvije trećine bogatstva.

Economic historians

Ekonomski povjesničari

call this "The Great Divergence."

nazivaju ovo Velikom divergencijom.

And this slide here

Ovaj je slajd

is the best simplification

najbolje pojednostavljenje

of the Great Divergence story

priče Velike divergencije

I can offer you.

koje vam mogu ponuditi.

It's basically two ratios

U osnovi, radi se o dva omjera

of per capita GDP,

BDP-a po stanovniku,

per capita gross domestic product,

bruto domaći proizvod po stanovniku,

so average income.

dakle, prosječna primanja.

One, the red line,

Prvo, crvena crta,

is the ratio of British to Indian

omjer je britanskog i indijskog

per capita income.

dohotka po glavi stanovnika.

And the blue line

Plava crta

is the ratio of American to Chinese.

predstavlja omjer između američkog i kineskog dohotka.

And this chart goes back to 1500.

Ovaj grafikon prikazuje sve do 1500. godine.

And you can see here

Ovdje možete vidjeti

that there's an exponential Great Divergence.

da postoji eksponencijalna Velika divergencija.

They start off pretty close together.

Počinju zajedno prilično blizu.

In fact, in 1500,

U stvari, 1500. godine,

the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.

prosječni je Kinez bio bogatiji od prosječnog Sjevernoamerikanca.

When you get to the 1970s,

Kad dođete do 1970-ih,

which is where this chart ends,

gdje ovaj grafikon završava,

the average Briton is more than 10 times richer

prosječni je Britanac 10 puta bogatiji

than the average Indian.

od prosječnog Indijca.

And that's allowing

A tu su uračunate

for differences in the cost of living.

i razlike u troškovima života.

It's based on purchasing power parity.

Bazirano je na paritetu kupovne moći.

The average American

Prosječni Amerikanac

is nearly 20 times richer

gotovo je 20 puta bogatiji

than the average Chinese

od prosječnog Kineza

by the 1970s.

do 1970-ih.

So why?

Zašto?

This wasn't just an economic story.

Ovo nije samo ekonomska priča.

If you take the 10 countries

Ako uzmete 10 zemalja

that went on to become

koje su postale

the Western empires,

zapadna carstva,

in 1500 they were really quite tiny --

1500-tih bili su prilično sićušni --

five percent of the world's land surface,

na pet posto zemljine površine,

16 percent of its population,

16 posto populacije,

maybe 20 percent of its income.

možda 20 posto dohotka.

By 1913,

Do 1913. godine,

these 10 countries, plus the United States,

ovih 10 zemalja, plus Sjedinjene Države,

controlled vast global empires --

kotrolirale su velika svjetska carstva --

58 percent of the world's territory,

58 posto svjetskog teritorija,

about the same percentage of its population,

otprilike isti postotak populacije,

and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share

i zaista visok udio, gotovo tri četvrtine,

of global economic output.

svjetske gospodarske proizvodnje.

And notice, most of that went to the motherland,

Primijetite da je većina toga odlazila je u matične zemlje,

to the imperial metropoles,

u metropole imperija,

not to their colonial possessions.

ne u njihove kolonijalne posjede.

Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --

Za ovo ne možete kriviti samo imperijalizam,

though many people have tried to do so --

iako su mnogi pokušali,

for two reasons.

i to iz dva razloga.

One, empire was the least original thing

Prvo, imperiji nisu bili nikakva novost

that the West did after 1500.

na Zapadu nakon 1500. godine.

Everybody did empire.

Svi su imali imperije.

They beat preexisting Oriental empires

Nadvladali su ranije orijentalne imperije

like the Mughals and the Ottomans.

poput mogulskog i osmanskog.

So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation

Imperiji, dakle, i nisu baš sjajno objašnjenje

for the Great Divergence.

Velike divergencije.

In any case, as you may remember,

U svakom slučaju, sjetite se

the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,

da Velika divergencija dostiže vrhunac 1970-ih,

some considerable time after decolonization.

dosta nakon dekolonizacije.

This is not a new question.

Ovo pitanje nije novo.

Samuel Johnson,

Samuel Johnson,

the great lexicographer,

veliki leksikograf,

[posed] it through his character Rasselas

govorio je o ovome kroz lik Rasselasa

in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"

u svojem romanu "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia",

published in 1759.

objavljenom 1759. godine.

"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;

"Kojim su sredstvima Europljani tako moćni;

or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa

ili zašto, kad tako lako mogu doći u Aziju i Afriku

for trade or conquest,

radi trgovine ili osvajanja,

cannot the Asiaticks and Africans

ne mogu Azijati i Afrikanci

invade their coasts,

napasti njihove obale,

plant colonies in their ports,

razviti kolonije u njihovim lukama

and give laws to their natural princes?

i nametnuti zakone njihovim tradicionalnim prinčevima?

The same wind that carries them back

Zar ne bi isti vjetar koji njih vraća,

would bring us thither?"

nas odveo do njih?"

That's a great question.

Ovo je odlično pitanje.

And you know what,

I znate što,

it was also being asked at roughly the same time

gotovo su ga istovremeno postavljali

by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --

i Ostali - ljudi u ostatku svijeta --

like Ibrahim Muteferrika,

poput Ibrahima Muteferrika,

an Ottoman official,

osmanskog službenika,

the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,

koji je s velikim zakašnjenjem doveo tisak

to the Ottoman Empire --

u Osmansko carstvo.

who said in a book published in 1731,

U knjizi iz 1731. godine on pita:

"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past

"Zašto kršćanske nacije koje su bile tako slabe u prošlosti

compared with Muslim nations

u usporedbi s muslimanskima

begin to dominate so many lands in modern times

počinju dominirati tolikim zemljama u moderno doba,

and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"

pa čak i pobjeđuju nekad slavne osmanske vojske?"

Unlike Rasselas,

Za razliku od Rasselasa,

Muteferrika had an answer to that question,

Muteferrika je imao odgovor na to pitanje

which was correct.

i bio je upravu.

He said it was "because they have laws and rules

Rekao je da je to "zbog toga što imaju zakone i pravila

invented by reason."

utemeljene na razumu."

It's not geography.

To nije geografija.

You may think we can explain the Great Divergence

Možda mislite da Veliku divergenciju možemo objasniti

in terms of geography.

u okvirima geografije.

We know that's wrong,

Znamo da je to pogrešno

because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century

jer smo napravili dva velika prirodna eksperimenta u 20. stoljeću

to see if geography mattered more than institutions.

da vidimo je li geografija važnija od institucija.

We took all the Germans,

Uzeli smo sve Nijemce,

we divided them roughly in two,

podijelili smo ih na otprilike pola,

and we gave the ones in the East communism,

i onima na istoku dali smo komunizam.

and you see the result.

I vidite rezultat.

Within an incredibly short period of time,

Za nevjerojatno kratko vrijeme

people living in the German Democratic Republic

ljudi iz Njemačke Demokratske Republike,

produced Trabants, the Trabbi,

proizveli su Trabant, tzv. Trabbi,

one of the world's worst ever cars,

jedan od najgorih automobila ikad proizvedenih,

while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.

dok su oni na zapadu proizveli Mercedes Benz.

If you still don't believe me,

Ako mi i dalje ne vjerujete,

we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.

eksperiment smo izvršili i na Korejskom poluotoku.

And we decided we'd take Koreans

Odlučili smo uzeti Korejce

in roughly the same geographical place

s otprilike istog geografskog područja

with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,

i, primijetite, s istom osnovnom tradicionalnom kulturom,

and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.

podijelili smo ih na dvije grupe i dali onima sa sjevera komunizam.

And the result is an even bigger divergence

Rezultat je čak veća divergencija

in a very short space of time

u još kraćem razdoblju

than happened in Germany.

nego u Njemačkoj.

Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,

Nisu se toliko razlikovali u dizajnu uniformi za pogranične stražare,

but in almost every other respect,

ali u gotovo svakom drugom smislu,

it's a huge divergence.

divergencija je ogromna.

Which leads me to think

To me dovodi do zaključka

that neither geography nor national character,

da ni geografija ni nacionalni karakter,

popular explanations for this kind of thing,

što su popularna objašnjenja za ovakve stvari,

are really significant.

nisu zapravo važni.

It's the ideas.

Važne su ideje.

It's the institutions.

Institucije.

This must be true

Ovo je sigurno istina

because a Scotsman said it.

jer je tako rekao jedan Škot.

And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.

A mislim da sam jedini Škot ovdje na TED-u u Edinburghu.

So let me just explain to you

Dozvolite da vam objasnim

that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.

da je najpametniji čovjek na svijetu bio Škot.

He was Adam Smith --

To je bio Adam Smith --

not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --

ne Billy Connolly, ni Sean Connery,

though he is very smart indeed.

iako je on zaista vrlo pametan.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Smith -- and I want you to go

Smith -- i želim da odete

and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;

i poklonite se pred njegovim kipom na Royal Mileu,

it's a wonderful statue --

kip je prekrasan --

Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"

Smith je u knjizi "Bogatstvo naroda",

published in 1776 --

objavljenoj 1776. godine --

that's the most important thing that happened that year ...

to je najvažnija stvar koja se dogodila te godine...

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

You bet.

Naravno.

There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...

Bio je nekih lokalnih problema u nekim našim manjim kolonijama, ali...

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

"China seems to have been long stationary,

"Čini se da je Kina već dugo stacionarna

and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches

i vjerojatno je odavno stekla onu količinu bogatstva

which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.

koja je u skladu s prirodom njenih zakona i institucija.

But this complement may be much inferior

Ali ta je količina možda manja od one

to what, with other laws and institutions,

koju bi, uz druge zakone i institucije,

the nature of its soil, climate, and situation

priroda kineske zemlje, klime i situacije

might admit of."

mogla omogućiti."

That is so right and so cool.

Ovo je tako točno i tako cool.

And he said it such a long time ago.

A on je to rekao vrlo davno.

But you know, this is a TED audience,

Ali dobro, ovo je publika na TED-u,

and if I keep talking about institutions,

i ako nastavim govoriti o institucijama,

you're going to turn off.

nećete me više slušati.

So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.

Zato ću to prevesti na jezik koji razumijete.

Let's call them the killer apps.

Nazvat ćemo ih ubojitim aplikacijama.

I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps

Želim vam objasniti da postoji šest ubojitih aplikacija

that set the West apart from the rest.

koje su izdvojile zapad od ostatka svijeta.

And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,

Slične su aplikacijama na vašem telefonu,

in the sense that they look quite simple.

u smislu da izgledaju vrlo jednostavno.

They're just icons; you click on them.

One su samo ikonice, samo kliknete na njih.

But behind the icon, there's complex code.

No, iza ikonica nalazi se složen kod.

It's the same with institutions.

Isto je s institucijama.

There are six

Postoji ih šest

which I think explain the Great Divergence.

za koje mislim da objašnjavaju Veliku divergenciju.

One, competition.

Prva je konkurencija.

Two, the scientific revolution.

Druga je znanstvena revolucija.

Three, property rights.

Treća, imovinska prava.

Four, modern medicine.

Četvrta je moderna medicina.

Five, the consumer society.

Peta je potrošačko društvo.

And six, the work ethic.

I šesta je radna etika.

You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,

Možete pokušati vidjeti jesam li koju propustio

or try and boil it down to just four,

ili ih možete pokušati svesti na samo četiri,

but you'll lose.

ali nećete uspjeti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,

Dopustite da ukratko objasnim na što mislim.

synthesizing the work of many economic historians

Objedinit ću rad mnogih povijesničara ekonomije

in the process.

dok to činim.

Competition means,

Konkurencija znači

not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,

da ne samo da su u Europi 1500. godine postojale stotine političkih jedinica,

but within each of these units,

već i da je u samim jedinicama

there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.

bilo konkurencije među korporacijama i vladarima.

The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,

Prethodnica modernih korporacija, Korporacija grada Londona,

existed in the 12th century.

postojala je u 12. stoljeću.

Nothing like this existed in China,

Ništa slično nije postojalo u Kini,

where there was one monolithic state

gdje je bila samo jedna jedinstvena država

covering a fifth of humanity,

koja je obuhvaćala petinu čovječanstva

and anyone with any ambition

i svatko tko je imao ikakvu ambiciju

had to pass one standardized examination,

morao je položiti standardizirani test

which took three days and was very difficult

koji je trajao tri dana i bio vrlo težak.

and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters

Uključivao je pamćenje ogromnog broj znakova

and very complex Confucian essay writing.

i pisanje vrlo složenih konfucijanskih eseja.

The scientific revolution was different

Znanstvena se revolucija razlikovala

from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world

od znanosti koje je dostignuta u orijentalnom svijetu

in a number of crucial ways,

na mnogo značajnih načina,

the most important being

od kojih je najvažniji bio

that, through the experimental method,

da je putem eksperimentalne metode

it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.

ljudima nad prirodom dala kontrolu kakva ranije nije bila moguća.

Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application

Primjer: Benjamin Robins izvršio je nevjerojatnu primjenu

of Newtonian physics to ballistics.

Newtonove fizike na balistiku.

Once you do that,

Kad to učinite,

your artillery becomes accurate.

vaša artiljerija postaje precizna.

Think of what that means.

Razmislite što to znači.

That really was a killer application.

To je zaista bila ubojita aplikacija.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.

U isto vrijeme, nigdje se drugdje ne događa znanstvena revolucija.

The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,

Osmansko carstvo nije toliko daleko od Europe,

but there's no scientific revolution there.

ali nema znanstvenu revoluciju.

In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,

Zapravo, uništili su opservatorij Taqija al-Dina

because it's considered blasphemous

jer su smatrali bogohuljenjem

to inquire into the mind of God.

propitkivanje Božjeg uma.

Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;

Imovinska prava: nije u pitanju demokracija, ljudi,

it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.

već postojanje pravne države zasnovane na imovinskim pravima.

That's what makes the difference

To je ono što razlikuje

between North America and South America.

Sjevernu i Južnu Ameriku.

You could turn up in North America

Možete se pojaviti u Sjevornoj Americi,

having signed a deed of indenture

gdje ste potpisali ugovor

saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.

u kojem stoji: "Radit ću pet godina bez naknade,

You just have to feed me."

samo za hranu."

But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.

Ali na kraju ćete dobiti 100 jutara zemlje.

That's the land grant

Ovo je darovnica za zemljište

on the bottom half of the slide.

na donjoj polovici slajda.

That's not possible in Latin America

To nije moguće u Latinskoj Americi

where land is held onto

gdje zemlju drži

by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.

malobrojna elita koja potječe od konkvistadora.

And you can see here the huge divergence

Ovdje možete vidjeti ogromnu divergenciju

that happens in property ownership between North and South.

kod vlasništva nekretnina na sjeveru i jugu.

Most people in rural North America

Većina ljudi iz ruralnog dijela Sjeverne Amerike

owned some land by 1900.

posjedovala je nešto zemlje do 1900. godine.

Hardly anyone in South America did.

U Južnoj Americi gotovo nitko nije.

That's another killer app.

To je još jedna ubojita aplikacija.

Modern medicine in the late 19th century

Moderna medicina je krajem 19. stoljeća

began to make major breakthroughs

počela dolaziti do velikih otkrića

against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.

u borbi protiv zaraznih bolesti koje su ubijale mnogo ljudi.

And this was another killer app --

To je bila još jedna ubojita aplikacija --

the very opposite of a killer,

ali baš suprotno od ubojite,

because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.

jer je udvostručila, a potom i više nego udvostručila životni vijek čovjeka.

It even did that

To je učinila čak i

in the European empires.

u europskim imperijima.

Even in places like Senegal,

Čak i u mjestima poput Senegala,

beginning in the early 20th century,

od početka 20. stoljeća,

there were major breakthroughs in public health,

velik je napredak učinjen u javnom zdravstvu

and life expectancy began to rise.

i životni vijek počeo je rasti.

It doesn't rise any faster

Ništa brže nije rastao

after these countries become independent.

nakon što su ove zemlje dobile nezavisnost.

The empires weren't all bad.

Imperiji nisu bili baš toliko loši.

The consumer society is what you need

Potrebno vam je potrošačko društvo

for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.

da bi industrijska revolucija imala svrhu.

You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.

Potrebni su ljudi koji kupuju gomilu odjeće.

You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;

Svi ste kupili komad odjeće u posljednjih mjesec dana.

I guarantee it.

Garantiram.

That's the consumer society,

To je potrošačko društvo

and it propels economic growth

i ono stimulira gospodarski rast

more than even technological change itself.

više nego tehnološke promjene.

Japan was the first non-Western society

Japan je bio prvo društvo izvan zapada

to embrace it.

koje je to prihvatilo.

The alternative,

Alternativa,

which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,

koju je predlagao Mahatma Gandhi,

was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.

bila je trajna institucionalizacija siromaštva.

Very few Indians today

Danas vrlo malo Indijaca

wish that India had gone down

misli da je trebalo krenuti

Mahatma Gandhi's road.

putem Mahatme Gandhija.

Finally, the work ethic.

Na kraju, radna etika.

Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.

Max Weber je mislio da je ovo specifično za protestante.

He was wrong.

Bio je u krivu.

Any culture can get the work ethic

Svaka kultura može steći radnu etiku

if the institutions are there

ako postoje institucije

to create the incentive to work.

koje će stvoriti poticaj za rad.

We know this

Ovo znamo

because today the work ethic

jer danas radna etika

is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.

nije više samo fenomen protestanata sa zapada.

In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.

Zapravo, zapad je izgubio radnu etiku.

Today, the average Korean

Danas prosječan Korejac

works a thousand hours more a year

godišnje radi 1000 sati više

than the average German --

od prosječnog Nijemca --

a thousand.

tisuću.

And this is part

To je dio

of a really extraordinary phenomenon,

vrlo neobičnog fenomena,

and that is the end of the Great Divergence.

a to je kraj Velike divergencije.

Who's got the work ethic now?

Tko sad ima radnu etiku?

Take a look at mathematical attainment

Pogledajte rezultate iz matematike

by 15 year-olds.

kod 15-godišnjaci.

At the top of the international league table

Na vrhu međunarodne tablice,

according to the latest PISA study,

prema najnovijem istraživanju PISA,

is the Shanghai district of China.

nalazi se šangajska oblast u Kini.

The gap between Shanghai

Razlika između Šangaja

and the United Kingdom and the United States

i Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva i SAD-a

is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.

velika je poput razlike između Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva i SAD-a

and Albania and Tunisia.

naspram Albanije i Tunisa.

You probably assume

Vjerovatno pretpostavljate

that because the iPhone was designed in California

da zato što je iPhone dizajniran u Kaliforniji,

but assembled in China

ali sklopljen u Kini

that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.

da zapad i dalje vodi u tehnološkim inovacijama.

You're wrong.

U krivu ste.

In terms of patents,

Po pitanju patenata,

there's no question that the East is ahead.

nema sumnje da istok vodi.

Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,

Ne samo da je Japan već neko vrijeme na čelu,

South Korea has gone into third place,

već je Južna Koreja dostigla treće mjesto,

and China is just about to overtake Germany.

a Kina samo što nije prestigla Njemačku.

Why?

Zašto?

Because the killer apps can be downloaded.

Jer se ubojite aplikacije mogu preuzeti.

It's open source.

One su dostupne svima.

Any society can adopt these institutions,

Svako društvo može usvojiti ove institucije,

and when they do,

a kad to učine,

they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --

postižu ono što je zapad uspio nakon 1500. godine,

only faster.

samo brže.

This is the Great Reconvergence,

Ovo je Velika rekonvergencija,

and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.

i najveća priča vašeg života.

Because it's on your watch that this is happening.

Jer ste njeni svjedoci.

It's our generation

Naša generacija je ta

that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.

koja će biti svjedok kraja dominacije zapada.

The average American used to be more than 20 times richer

Prosječni Amerikanac bio je više od 20 puta bogatiji

than the average Chinese.

od prosječnog Kineza.

Now it's just five times,

Sada je samo 5 puta,

and soon it will be 2.5 times.

a uskoro će biti 2,5 puta.

So I want to end with three questions

Zato želim završiti s tri pitanja

for the future billions,

za buduće milijarde,

just ahead of 2016,

blizu 2016. godine,

when the United States will lose its place

kad SAD prepusti mjesto

as number one economy to China.

vodećeg gospodarstva Kini.

The first is, can you delete these apps,

Prvo: Mogu li se ove aplikacije izbrisati

and are we in the process of doing so

i jesmo li trenutno u tom procesu

in the Western world?

na zapadu?

The second question is,

Drugo pitanje je

does the sequencing of the download matter?

je li redoslijed preuzimanja važan?

And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?

I bi li Afrika mogla pogriješiti u tom redoslijedu?

One obvious implication of modern economic history

Očigledna implikacija povijesti moderne ekonomije

is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy

jest da je vrlo teško prijeći u demokraciju

before you've established

prije nego što ste ustanovili

secure private property rights.

pouzdane zakone o privatnom vlasništvu.

Warning: that may not work.

Upozorenje: to možda neće funkcionirati.

And third, can China do without

I treće, može li Kina

killer app number three?

bez treće ubojite aplikacije?

That's the one that John Locke systematized

To je pitanje koje je John Locke sistematizirao

when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights

kad je rekao da je sloboda ukorijenjena u pravima privatnog vlasništva

and the protection of law.

i zaštiti zakona.

That's the basis

Ovo je osnova

for the Western model

zapadnog modela

of representative government.

predstavničke vlade.

Now this picture shows the demolition

Ova slika pokazuje uništavanje studija

of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio

kineskog umjetnika Aija Weiweija

in Shanghai earlier this year.

u Šangaju ranije ove godine.

He's now free again,

Sad je ponovno slobodan,

having been detained, as you know, for some time.

nakon privremenog pritvora, kao što znate.

But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.

Ali mislim da njegov studio nije obnovljen.

Winston Churchill once defined civilization

Winston Churchill je jednom definirao civilizaciju

in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.

na predavanju koje je održao sudbonosne 1938. godine.

And I think these words really nail it:

Mislim da je ovim riječima uspio pogoditi srž:

"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.

"To znači društvo zasnovano na mišljenju civila.

It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,

Znači da su nasilje, vladavina ratnika i despotskih vođa,

the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,

uvjeti logora i rata, pobune i tiranije

give place to parliaments where laws are made,

zamijenjeni parlamentom u kojemu nastaju zakoni

and independent courts of justice

i nezavisnim sudovima

in which over long periods those laws are maintained.

u kojima se ti zakoni drugo primjenjuju.

That is civilization --

To je civilizacija --

and in its soil grow continually

i na njenom tlu neprekino rastu

freedom, comfort and culture,"

sloboda, utjeha i kultura",

what all TEDsters care about most.

ono do čega je TED-ovcima najviše stalo,

"When civilization reigns in any country,

"Kad civilizacija vlada zemljom,

a wider and less harassed life

širi i smireniji život

is afforded to the masses of the people."

omogućen je masama."

That's so true.

To je istina.

I don't think the decline of Western civilization

Ne mislim da je propast zapadne civilizacije

is inevitable,

neizbježna

because I don't think history operates

jer ne mislim da povijest funkcionira

in this kind of life-cycle model,

po ovakvom životnom ciklusu,

beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's

koji je predivno ilustrirao Thomas Cole

"Course of Empire" paintings.

na svojim slikama "Put imperija".

That's not the way history works.

Povijest ne funkcionira tako.

That's not the way the West rose,

To nije način na koji se zapad uzdigao

and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.

i ne mislim da će tako pasti.

The West may collapse very suddenly.

Zapad može pasti vrlo iznenadno.

Complex civilizations do that,

To se događa složenim civilizacijama

because they operate, most of the time,

jer uglavnom funkcioniraju

on the edge of chaos.

na rubu kaosa.

That's one of the most profound insights

To je jedan od najdubljih uvida

to come out of the historical study of complex institutions

proteklih iz povijesnih studija složenih institucija

like civilizations.

poput civilizacija.

No, we may hang on,

Ipak se možemo održati,

despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,

usprkos ogromnom teretu duga koji smo nagomilali,

despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic

usprskos dokazu da smo izgubili radnu etiku

and other parts of our historical mojo.

i drugih povijesnih talismana.

But one thing is for sure,

No, jedno je sigurno,

the Great Divergence

Velika divergencija

is over, folks.

došla je do kraja, ljudi.

Thanks very much.

Veliko hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Bruno Giussani: Niall,

Bruno Giussani: Niall,

I am just curious

zaima me

about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,

tvoje mišljenje o drugoj regiji svijeta koja cvijeta,

which is Latin America.

a to je Latinska Amerika.

What's your view on that?

Što misliš o tome?

Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking

Niall Ferguson: Ja zapravo ne govorim samo

about the rise of the East;

o usponu istoka.

I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,

Govorim o usponu Ostalih, svega što nije zapad,

and that includes South America.

što uključuje i Južnu Ameriku.

I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,

Jednom sam pitao kolegu s Harvarda:

"Hey, is South America part of the West?"

"Ej, je li Južna Amerika dio Zapada?"

He was an expert in Latin American history.

On je bio stručnjak za povijest Latinske Amerike.

He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."

Rekao je: "Ne znam. Morat ću razmisliti o tome."

That tells you something really important.

To nam govori nešto zaista važno.

I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,

Mislim da, ako pogledate što se događa posebno u Brazilu,

but also Chile,

ali i Čileu,

which was in many ways the one that led the way

koji je po mnogo čemu predvodio put

in transforming the institutions of economic life,

u transformiranju ekonomskih institucija,

there's a very bright future indeed.

čeka ih svijetla budućnost.

So my story really is

Tako da je moja priča zapravo

as much about that convergence in the Americas

isto toliko o konvergenciji u Amerikama

as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.

koliko o konvergenciji u Euroaziji.

BG: And there is this impression

BG: I stječe se dojam

that North America and Europe

da Sjeverna Amerika i Europa

are not really paying attention

baš i ne obraćaju pažnju

to these trends.

na ove trendove.

Mostly they're worried about each other.

Uglavnom se bave jedni drugima.

The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.

Amerikanci misle da će europski model sutra propasti.

The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.

Europljani misle da će američki proračun sutra eksplodirati.

And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.

I čini se da je to jedino što ih zanima u posljednje vrijeme.

NF: I think the fiscal crisis

NF: Mislim da je fiskalna kriza

that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --

koju danas vidimo u razvijenom svijetu, s obje strane Atlantika,

is essentially the same thing

u biti ista stvar,

taking different forms

samo u drugom obliku,

in terms of political culture.

u smislu političke kulture.

And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --

To je kriza koja ima svoj strukturni aspekt --

it's partly to do with demographics.

to dijelom ima veze s demografijom.

But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis

Ali, naravno, ima veze i s velikom krizom

that followed excessive leverage,

koja je pratila pretjeranu moć,

excessive borrowing in the private sector.

pretjerane pozajmice u privatnom sektoru.

That crisis,

Ta kriza,

which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,

koja je privukla toliko pažnje, uključujući moju,

I think is an epiphenomenon.

mislim da je površni fenomen.

The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,

Financijska kriza relativno je malen povijesni fenomen,

which has just accelerated

koje je samo ubrzao

this huge shift,

ovu veliku promjenu,

which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.

kojom se završava 500 godina dominacije zapada.

I think that's its real importance.

Mislim da je u tome njezina prava važnost.

BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)

BG: Niall, hvala ti. (NF: Hvala, Bruno)

(Applause)

(Pljesak)