How We Can Make the World a Better Place by 2030 | Michael Green | TED Talks

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Do you think the world is going to be a better place next year?

Da li smatrate da će svet dogodine biti bolje mesto?

In the next decade?

U narednoj deceniji?

Can we end hunger,

Možemo li da okončamo glad,

achieve gender equality,

postignemo rodnu jednakost,

halt climate change,

zaustavimo klimatske promene,

all in the next 15 years?

sve ovo u narednih 15 godina?

Well, according to the governments of the world, yes we can.

Pa, prema mišljenju vlada sveta, možemo.

In the last few days, the leaders of the world,

Proteklih nekoliko dana, svetske vođe

meeting at the UN in New York,

na sastanku u UN u Njujorku,

agreed a new set of Global Goals

dogovorili su novi paket Globalnih ciljeva

for the development of the world to 2030.

za svetski razvoj do 2030.

And here they are:

Evo tih ciljeva:

these goals are the product of a massive consultation exercise.

ovi ciljevi su proizvod obimnih konsultantskih vežbi.

The Global Goals are who we, humanity, want to be.

Globalni ciljevi su ono što bi mi, čovečanstvo, želeli da budemo.

Now that's the plan, but can we get there?

Pa, to je plan, ali možemo li da ga ostvarimo?

Can this vision for a better world really be achieved?

Može li se ova vizija boljeg sveta zaista ostvariti?

Well, I'm here today because we've run the numbers,

Pa, ovde sam danas jer smo proverili neke brojke

and the answer, shockingly,

i odgovor je, na iznenađenje svih,

is that maybe we actually can.

da možda zapravo i možemo.

But not with business as usual.

Ali ne radeći po običaju.

Now, the idea that the world is going to get a better place

Sad, misao da će svet postati bolje mesto

may seem a little fanciful.

može se činiti malčice nestvarnom.

Watch the news every day and the world seems to be going backwards, not forwards.

Posmatrajte vesti svaki dan i čini se da svet ide unazad, ne napred.

And let's be frank:

I budimo iskreni:

it's pretty easy to be skeptical about grand announcements

prilično je lako biti skeptičan prema velikim najavama

coming out of the UN.

koje stižu iz UN-a.

But please, I invite you to suspend your disbelief for just a moment.

Ali, molim vas, pozivam vas da zadržite nevericu samo za momenat.

Because back in 2001,

Jer je 2001.

the UN agreed another set of goals, the Millennium Development Goals.

UN dogovorio drugi paket ciljeva, Milenijumske ciljeve razvoja.

And the flagship target there was to halve the proportion of people

A glavna meta je bila prepolovljanje broja ljudi

living in poverty by 2015.

koji žive u siromaštvu, do 2015.

The target was to take from a baseline of 1990,

Cilj je bio krenuti od osnove iz 1990,

when 36 percent of the world's population lived in poverty,

kada je 36 procenata svetske populacije živelo u siromaštvu

to get to 18 percent poverty this year.

i stići do 18% siromašnih ove godine.

Did we hit this target?

Da li smo pogodili cilj?

Well, no, we didn't.

Pa, ne, nismo.

We exceeded it.

Premašili smo ga.

This year, global poverty is going to fall to 12 percent.

Ove će godine globalno siromaštvo da padne na 12 procenata.

Now, that's still not good enough,

Pa, to i dalje nije dovoljno dobro

and the world does still have plenty of problems.

i u svetu zaista i dalje ima mnogo problema.

But the pessimists and doomsayers who say that the world can't get better

Ali pesimisti i predskazivači propasti koji tvrde da svet ne može da se popravi

are simply wrong.

prosto nisu u pravu.

So how did we achieve this success?

Pa, kako smo postigli ovaj uspeh?

Well, a lot of it was because of economic growth.

Pa, uglavnom je to bilo zahvaljujući ekonomskom rastu.

Some of the biggest reductions in poverty were in countries such as China and India,

Najveća smanjenja siromaštva su se desila u zemljama poput Kine i Indije,

which have seen rapid economic growth in recent years.

koje su proteklih godina doživele nagli ekonomski rast.

So can we pull off the same trick again?

Dakle, možemo li da izvedemo ponovo isti trik?

Can economic growth get us to the Global Goals?

Može li nas ekonomski rast dovesti do Globalnih ciljeva?

Well, to answer that question,

Pa, kako bismo odgovorili na to

we need to benchmark where the world is today against the Global Goals

moramo da imamo reper gde je svet danas u odnosu na Globalne ciljeve

and figure out how far we have to travel.

i da otkrijemo koliko daleko moramo da idemo.

But that ain't easy,

Ali to nije lako

because the Global Goals aren't just ambitious,

zato što Globalni ciljevi nisu samo ambiciozni,

they're also pretty complicated.

oni su i prilično komplikovani.

Over 17 goals, there are then 169 targets

Na više od 17 ciljeva dolazi 169 meta

and literally hundreds of indicators.

i bukvalno na stotine pokazatelja.

Also, while some of the goals are pretty specific --

Takođe, iako su neki ciljevi prilično specifični -

end hunger --

okončati glad -

others are a lot vaguer --

drugi su mnogo nejasniji -

promote peaceful and tolerant societies.

promocija mirnog i tolerantnog društva.

So to help us with this benchmarking,

Kako bih nam pomogao u nalaženju repera,

I'm going to use a tool called the Social Progress Index.

koristiću oruđe koje se zove Indeks društvenog napretka.

What this does is measures all the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve,

On meri sve ono što Globalni ciljevi pokušavaju da ostvare,

but sums it up into a single number that we can use as our benchmark

a sumira sve to u jedan broj koji možemo da koristimo kao reper

and track progress over time.

i da vremenom pratimo napredak.

The Social Progress Index basically asks three fundamental questions

Indeks društvenog napretka u suštini postavlja tri temeljna pitanja

about a society.

o društvu.

First of all, does everyone have the basic needs of survival:

Pre svega, da li svako ima osnovne životne potrebe:

food, water, shelter, safety?

hranu, vodu, sklonište, sigurnost?

Secondly, does everyone have the building blocks of a better life:

Pod dva, da li svako ima građu za bolji život:

education, information, health and a sustainable environment?

obrazovanje, informisanost, zdravlje i održivu životnu sredinu?

And does everyone have the opportunity to improve their lives,

I ima li svako mogućnost da unapređuje svoj život

through rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination,

kroz prava, slobodu izbora, slobodu od diskriminacije

and access to the world's most advanced knowledge?

i kroz pristup najnaprednijem svetskom znanju?

The Social Progress Index sums all this together using 52 indicators

Indeks društvenog napretka sve to sumira, koristeći 52 pokazatelja

to create an aggregate score on a scale of 0 to 100.

kako bi došao da zbira na skali od 0 do 100.

And what we find is that there's a wide diversity of performance

A otkrili smo da postoji ogromno nesaglasje u učinku

in the world today.

u današnjem svetu.

The highest performing country, Norway, scores 88.

Najuspešnija zemlja, Norveška, ima zbir 88.

The lowest performing country, Central African Republic, scores 31.

Najneuspešnija zemlja, Centralnoafrička Republika, ima zbir 31.

And we can add up all the countries together,

Možemo sakupiti sve države,

weighting for the different population sizes,

uzimajući u obzir količinu populacije

and that global score is 61.

i taj globalni zbir je 61.

In concrete terms,

Konkretno,

that means that the average human being is living on a level of social progress

to znači da prosečno ljudsko biće živi na nivou društvenog napretka,

about the same of Cuba or Kazakhstan today.

otprilike kao današnja Kuba ili Kazahstan.

That's where we are today: 61 out of 100.

Tu smo danas: 61 od 100.

What do we have to get to to achieve the Global Goals?

Šta moramo da postignemo da bi ostvarili Globalne ciljeve?

Now, the Global Goals are certainly ambitious,

Sad, Globalni ciljevi su, bez sumnje, ambiciozni,

but they're not about turning the world into Norway in just 15 years.

ali ne radi se o pretvaranju sveta u Norvešku za samo 15 godina.

So having looked at the numbers, my estimate is that a score of 75

Pa, posmatrajući brojke, moja procena je da bi zbir 75,

would not only be a giant leap forward in human well-being,

ne samo bio ogroman skok napred za opšte dobro ljudi,

it would also count as hitting the Global Goals target.

takođe bi značio pogađanje mete Globalnih ciljeva.

So there's our target, 75 out of 100.

Dakle, evo naše mete: 75 od 100.

Can we get there?

Možemo li stići tu?

Well, the Social Progress Index can help us calculate this,

Pa, Indeks društvenog napretka nam može pomoći u računanju toga

because as you might have noticed,

jer, kako ste možda već primetili,

there are no economic indicators in there;

tu nema ekonomskih pokazatelja;

there's no GDP or economic growth in the Social Progress Index model.

nema BDP ili ekonomskog rasta u modelu Indeksa društvenog napretka.

And what that lets us do is understand the relationship

A to nam dozvoljava da razumemo vezu

between economic growth and social progress.

između ekonomskog rasta i društvenog napretka.

Let me show you on this chart.

Pokazaću vam na ovom grafikonu.

So here on the vertical axis, I've put social progress,

Dakle, ovde sam na vertikalnoj osi stavio društveni napredak,

the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve.

ono što Globalni ciljevi pokušavaju da ostvare.

Higher is better.

Što više to bolje.

And then on the horizontal axis, is GDP per capita.

A potom je na horizontalnoj osi BDP po glavi stanovnika.

Further to the right means richer.

Što više desno, to su bogatiji.

And in there, I'm now going to put all the countries of the world,

I tu ću da stavim sve države sveta,

each one represented by a dot,

svaka je predstavljena tačkom,

and on top of that I'm going to put the regression line

a povrh svega ću da povučem liniju regresije

that shows the average relationship.

koja pokazuje prosečan odnos.

And what this tells us is that as we get richer,

A ovo nam govori da što smo bogatiji,

social progress does tend to improve.

društveni napredak ima tendenciju rasta.

However, as we get richer, each extra dollar of GDP

Međutim, kako postajemo još bogatiji, svaki dodatni dolar BDP-a

is buying us less and less social progress.

nam kupuje sve manje i manje društvenog napretka.

And now we can use this information to start building our forecast.

Sad možemo da koristimo ove informacije da bismo počeli da pravimo predviđanja.

So here is the world in 2015.

Dakle, ovo je svet u 2015.

We have a social progress score of 61

Imamo zbir društvenog napretka 61

and a GDP per capita of $14,000.

i BDP po glavi stanovnika od 14,000 dolara.

And the place we're trying to get to, remember, is 75, that Global Goals target.

A mesto do koga pokušavamo da stignemo, sećate se, je 75, meta Globalnih ciljeva.

So here we are today, $14,000 per capita GDP.

Dakle, tu smo danas BDP po glavi stanovnika je 14,000 dolara.

How rich are we going to be in 2030?

Koliko ćemo biti bogati 2030?

That's what we need to know next.

To je sledeće što moramo da otkrijemo.

Well, the best forecast we can find comes from the US Department of Agriculture,

Pa, najbolju prognozu nalazimo u američkom Ministarstvu poljoprivrede,

which forecasts 3.1 percent average global economic growth

koje predviđa prosečan svetski ekonomski rast od 3,1 procenta

over the next 15 years,

u narednih 15 godina

which means that in 2030, if they're right,

što znači da će 2030, ako su u pravu,

per capita GDP will be about $23,000.

BDP po glavi stanovnika biti oko 23,000 dolara.

So now the question is: if we get that much richer,

Sada se postavlja pitanje: ako postanemo toliko bogati,

how much social progress are we going to get?

koliki ćemo društveni napredak ostvariti?

Well, we asked a team of economists at Deloitte

Pa, upitali smo ekipu ekonomista u Delojtu,

who checked and crunched the numbers,

koji su proverili i usitnili brojke

and they came back and said, well, look: if the world's average wealth goes

i vratili su se i rekli, pazite: ako prosečno svetsko bogatstvo poraste

from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year,

sa 14,000 na 23,000 dolara godišnje,

social progress is going to increase

društveni napredak će da poraste

from 61 to 62.4.

sa 61 do 62,4.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.

Samo 62,4. Samo sićušan porast.

Now this seems a bit strange.

Ovo se čini čudnim.

Economic growth seems to have really helped

Čini se da je ekonomski rast zaista pomogao

in the fight against poverty,

u borbi protiv siromaštva,

but it doesn't seem to be having much impact

ali ne čini se da ima značajan uticaj

on trying to get to the Global Goals.

u pokušaju dostizanja Globalnih ciljeva.

So what's going on?

Pa, o čemu se radi?

Well, I think there are two things.

Mislim da imamo dve stvari.

The first is that in a way, we're the victims of our own success.

Prva je u tome što smo mi, na neki način, žrtve sopstvenog uspeha.

We've used up the easy wins from economic growth,

Iskoristili smo lake pobede ekonomskog rasta

and now we're moving on to harder problems.

i sada prelazimo na teže probleme.

And also, we know that economic growth comes with costs as well as benefits.

A takođe, znamo da uz ekonomski rast idu i troškovi, kao i koristi.

There are costs to the environment, costs from new health problems like obesity.

Životna sredina ispašta, troškovi od novih zdravstvenih problema, poput gojaznosti.

So that's the bad news.

Dakle, to su loše vesti.

We're not going to get to the Global Goals just by getting richer.

Nećemo ostvariti Globalne ciljeve pukim bogaćenjem.

So are the pessimists right?

Dakle, jesu li pesimisti u pravu?

Well, maybe not.

Pa, možda i nisu.

Because the Social Progress Index also has some very good news.

Jer Indeks društvenog napretka takođe donosi veoma dobre vesti.

Let me take you back to that regression line.

Vratićemo se liniji regresije.

So this is the average relationship between GDP and social progress,

Dakle, ovo je prosečan odnos između BDP-a i društvenog napretka

and this is what our last forecast was based on.

i na ovome je bazirano naše poslednje predviđanje.

But as you saw already,

No, kako ste već videli

there is actually lots of noise around this trend line.

mnogo je buke oko ove linije našeg kretanja.

What that tells us, quite simply,

Ona nam govori, prilično jasno,

is that GDP is not destiny.

da BDP nije sudbina.

We have countries that are underperforming

Imamo nezadovoljavajuće zemlje

on social progress, relative to their wealth.

iz društvenog napretka, u poređenju s njihovim bogatstvom.

Russia has lots of natural resource wealth,

Rusija je bogata mnoštvom prirodnih resursa,

but lots of social problems.

ali ima i mnogo društvenih problema.

China has boomed economically,

Kina je imala ekonomski procvat,

but hasn't made much headway on human rights or environmental issues.

ali nije mnogo napredovala u ljudskim pravima i ekološkim pitanjima.

India has a space program and millions of people without toilets.

Indija ima svemirski program i milione ljudi bez toaleta.

Now, on the other hand, we have countries that are overperforming

Sad, s druge strane, imamo zemlje koje su uspešne

on social progress relative to their GDP.

iz društvenog napretka, u poređenju sa BDP.

Costa Rica has prioritized education, health and environmental sustainability,

Kostarika je odredila za prioritete: obrazovanje, zdravstvo i održivost

and as a result, it's achieving a very high level of social progress,

i kao rezultat toga, postiže visoke rezultate iz društvenog napretka,

despite only having a rather modest GDP.

uprkos tome što ima prilično skroman BDP.

And Costa Rica's not alone.

A Kostarika nije usamljena.

From poor countries like Rwanda to richer countries like New Zealand,

Od siromašnih zemalja, poput Ruande, do bogatijih zemalja, poput Novog Zelanda,

we see that it's possible to get lots of social progress,

vidimo da je moguće postići značajan društveni napredak,

even if your GDP is not so great.

čak i kada vam BDP nije sjajan.

And that's really important, because it tells us two things.

A to je zaista važno jer nam govori dve stvari.

First of all, it tells us that we already in the world have the solutions

Pre svega, govori nam da u svetu već postoje rešenja

to many of the problems that the Global Goals are trying to solve.

za mnoge probleme koje Globalni ciljevi pokušavaju da reše.

It also tells us that we're not slaves to GDP.

Takođe nam govori da nismo robovi BDP-a.

Our choices matter: if we prioritize the well-being of people,

Naši izbori su važni: ako nam je prioritet dobrobit ljudi,

then we can make a lot more progress than our GDP might expect.

onda možemo da postignemo daleko više napretka nego što naš BDP nagoveštava.

How much? Enough to get us to the Global Goals?

Koliko? Dovoljno da ostvarimo Globalne ciljeve?

Well, let's look at some numbers.

Pa, pogledajmo neke brojke.

What we know already: the world today is scoring 61 on social progress,

Šta nam je već poznato: današnji svet ima zbir 61 iz društvenog napretka,

and the place we want to get to is 75.

a želimo stići do 75.

If we rely on economic growth alone,

Ako se oslonimo samo na ekonomski rast,

we're going to get to 62.4.

stići ćemo samo do 62,4.

So let's assume now that we can get the countries that are currently

Zato pretpostavimo da možemo da dovedemo države

koje trenutno imaju nezadovoljavajući društveni napredak- Rusija, Kina, Indija -

underperforming on social progress -- the Russia, China, Indias --

just up to the average.

da samo budu prosečne.

How much social progress does that get us?

Koliko društvenog napretka bi nam to donelo?

Well, that takes us to 65.

Pa, to bi nas dovelo do 65.

It's a bit better, but still quite a long way to go.

Malo je bolje, ali je i dalje dug put pred nama.

So let's get a little bit more optimistic and say,

Pa, budimo malo optimističniji i pitajmo:

what if every country gets a little bit better

šta ako bi svaka zemlja postala malo bolja

at turning its wealth into well-being?

u pretvaranju bogatstva u dobrobit?

Well then, we get to 67.

Pa, onda bismo stigli do 67.

And now let's be even bolder still.

A sad budimo još odvažniji.

What if every country in the world chose to be like Costa Rica

Šta kad bi svaka država u svetu odlučila da bude kao Kostarika

in prioritizing human well-being,

i da joj prioritet bude dobrobit ljudi,

using its wealth for the well-being of its citizens?

da koristi svoje bogatstvo za dobrobit svojih građana?

Well then, we get to nearly 73, very close to the Global Goals.

Pa onda bismo stigli skoro do 73 veoma blizu Globalnih ciljeva.

Can we achieve the Global Goals?

Možemo li da postignemo Globalne ciljeve?

Certainly not with business as usual.

Svakako ne, radeći po običaju.

Even a flood tide of economic growth is not going to get us there,

Čak ni poplavni talas ekonomskog rasta nas neće dovesti do njih,

if it just raises the mega-yachts and the super-wealthy

ako samo poveća broj mega jahti i super bogatih

and leaves the rest behind.

i ostavi nas ostale iza sebe.

If we're going to achieve the Global Goals we have to do things differently.

Ako želimo da postignemo Globalne ciljeve moramo da radimo drugačije.

We have to prioritize social progress, and really scale solutions

Društveni napredak nam mora biti prioritet i moramo da uvećamo rešenja

around the world.

širom sveta.

I believe the Global Goals are a historic opportunity,

Verujem da su Globalni ciljevi istorijska šansa

because the world's leaders have promised to deliver them.

jer su svetske vođe obećale da će ih ispuniti.

Let's not dismiss the goals or slide into pessimism;

Ne odbacujmo ciljeve i ne srljajmo u pesimizam;

let's hold them to that promise.

držimo ih za to obećanje.

And we need to hold them to that promise by holding them accountable,

A držaćemo ih za to obećanje tako što ćemo ih smatrati odgovornim,

tracking their progress all the way through the next 15 years.

prateći njihov napredak svih narednih 15 godina.

And I want to finish by showing you

A želim da završim pokazavši vam

a way to do that, called the People's Report Card.

kako da to uradite, zove se Narodna izveštajna karta.

The People's Report Card brings together all this data into a simple framework

Narodna izveštajna karta spaja sve ove podatke u jednostavan okvir

that we'll all be familiar with from our school days,

koji nam je svima poznat iz školskih dana,

to hold them to account.

kako bismo ih držali odgovornim.

It grades our performance on the Global Goals

Ona ocenjuje naš učinak u Globalnim ciljevima

on a scale from F to A,

na skali od F do A,

where F is humanity at its worst, and A is humanity at its best.

gde je F čovečanstvo u najgorem obliku, a A je čovečanstvo u najboljem obliku.

Our world today is scoring a C-.

Naš svet danas ima ocenu C-.

The Global Goals are all about getting to an A,

Kod Globalnih ciljeva se radi o stizanju do A

and that's why we're going to be updating the People's Report Card annually,

i zato ćemo godišnje da ažuriramo Narodnu izveštajnu kartu,

for the world and for all the countries of the world,

čitavog sveta i svih država sveta

so we can hold our leaders to account

kako bismo tražili odgovornost naših vođa

to achieve this target and fulfill this promise.

da postignemo ovaj cilj i da ispunimo ovo obećanje.

Because getting to the Global Goals will only happen if we do things differently,

Jer ćemo postići Globalne ciljeve, jedino ako budemo radili drugačije,

if our leaders do things differently,

ako naše vođe budu radile drugačije,

and for that to happen, that needs us to demand it.

a da bi se to desilo, mi moramo to da zahtevamo.

So let's reject business as usual.

Zato odbacimo rađenje po običaju.

Let's demand a different path.

Zahtevajmo drugi put.

Let's choose the world that we want.

Izaberimo svet kakav želimo.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Michael.

Bruno Đusani: Hvala Majkl.

Michael, just one question: the Millennium Development Goals

Majkl, imam samo jedno pitanje. Milenijumski razvojni ciljevi

established 15 years ago,

koji su utvrđeni pre 15 godina,

they were kind of applying to every country

teoretski su se odnosili na sve države,

but it turned out to be really a scorecard for emerging countries.

ali se ispostavilo da je to zaista tabela za zemlje u razvoju.

Now the new Global Goals are explicitly universal.

Novi Globalni ciljevi su eksplicitno univerzalni.

They ask for every country to show action and to show progress.

Traže od svake države da dela i da pokaže napredak.

How can I, as a private citizen, use the report card

Kako mogu ja, kao privatno lice, da koristim izveštajnu kartu

to create pressure for action?

i da izvršim pritisak za delanje?

Michael Green: This is a really important point; it's a big shift in priorities --

Majkl Grin: Ovo je važna tačka, to je veliki zaokret u prioritetima -

ne radi se više o siromašnim zemljama i samo o siromaštvu.

it's no longer about poor countries and just poverty.

It's about every country.

Radi se o svim zemljama.

And every country is going to have challenges in getting to the Global Goals.

A svaka država će se suočiti sa izazovima prilikom postizanja Globalnih ciljeva.

Even, I'm sorry to say, Bruno, Switzerland has got to work to do.

Čak i, žao mi je što to kažem, Bruno, Švajcarska ima mnogo posla.

And so that's why we're going to produce these report cards in 2016

I zato ćemo da napravimo ove izveštačke karte 2016.

for every country in the world.

za sve države sveta.

Then we can really see, how are we doing?

Onda ćemo zaista da znamo kako nam ide.

And it's not going to be rich countries scoring straight A's.

I neće se desiti da bogate države dobiju čisto A.

And that, then, I think, is to provide a point of focus

A to će onda, mislim, obezbediti smernicu

for people to start demanding action and start demanding progress.

ljudima da počnu da zahtevaju delanje i da počnu da zahtevaju napredak.

BG: Thank you very much.

BĐ: Mnogo ti hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)