How We Can Make the World a Better Place by 2030 | Michael Green | TED Talks

翻译人员: Huazhe Xie 校对人员: 易帆 余

Do you think the world is going to be a better place next year?

你们觉得明年这个世界会变的更好吗？

In the next decade?

未来十年呢？

Can we end hunger,

我们能不能解决饥饿问题，

achieve gender equality,

实现性别平等，

halt climate change,

停止气候变化，

all in the next 15 years?

让所有这些都在未来15年内实现？

Well, according to the governments of the world, yes we can.

那么，根据世界各国政府所说， 我们是可以做到的。

In the last few days, the leaders of the world,

在过去的几天里，全世界的领导人

meeting at the UN in New York,

在位于纽约的联合国总部进行了会面，

agreed a new set of Global Goals

对于到2030年世界发展的

for the development of the world to 2030.

一系列新的全球目标达成了共识。

And here they are:

就是这些：

these goals are the product of a massive consultation exercise.

这些目标是大量咨询磋商的产物。

The Global Goals are who we, humanity, want to be.

这些全球目标是我们这些人类想要实现的。

Now that's the plan, but can we get there?

这就是这个计划，但是我们能实现吗？

Can this vision for a better world really be achieved?

这个更好的世界的愿景可以实现吗？

Well, I'm here today because we've run the numbers,

我今天站在这里，是因为我们研究了一下，

and the answer, shockingly,

研究出的答案，非常让人震惊，

is that maybe we actually can.

那就是也许我们真的能做到。

But not with business as usual.

但不是用一如往常的方式来实现了。

Now, the idea that the world is going to get a better place

现在，这个世界正在变得更好的想法

may seem a little fanciful.

可能看起来还有些不切实际。

Watch the news every day and the world seems to be going backwards, not forwards.

我们每天看新闻时觉得 这个世界是在退步，而不是进步。

And let's be frank:

那我们坦白地说：

it's pretty easy to be skeptical about grand announcements

其实这个从联合国发出的宏伟的公告

coming out of the UN.

很容易让人怀疑。

But please, I invite you to suspend your disbelief for just a moment.

但是我建议你先搁置你的怀疑一小会儿。

Because back in 2001,

因为回到2001年，

the UN agreed another set of goals, the Millennium Development Goals.

那时联合国也同意了另一系列的目标， 就是千年发展目标。

And the flagship target there was to halve the proportion of people

当时的核心目标就是到2015年时

living in poverty by 2015.

使贫穷人口的比例减少一半。

The target was to take from a baseline of 1990,

那个目标是当时以1990年为基础设立的，

when 36 percent of the world's population lived in poverty,

当时有36%的世界人口的生活很贫穷，

to get to 18 percent poverty this year.

而目标是到今年这个指标要降到18%。

Did we hit this target?

我们达到这个目标了吗？

Well, no, we didn't.

我们没有。

We exceeded it.

我们超越了它。

This year, global poverty is going to fall to 12 percent.

今年，全球贫困人口比例将要降到12%。

Now, that's still not good enough,

但是这仍不够好，

and the world does still have plenty of problems.

因为这个世界还是存在很多的问题。

But the pessimists and doomsayers who say that the world can't get better

但是那些说这个世界不能变得更好的 悲观主义者和末日预言者们

are simply wrong.

是真的错了。

So how did we achieve this success?

那么我们是如何取得这些成功的呢？

Well, a lot of it was because of economic growth.

其实，这很大程度上要归功于经济的增长。

Some of the biggest reductions in poverty were in countries such as China and India,

贫穷人口大量减少的一些地方是在 像中国和印度这样的一些国家，

which have seen rapid economic growth in recent years.

而这些国家近几年的经济增长飞速。

So can we pull off the same trick again?

那现在我们能不能用同样的方式来达成目标呢？

Can economic growth get us to the Global Goals?

经济增长能让我们实现这些全球目标吗？

Well, to answer that question,

那么，要回答这个问题的话，

we need to benchmark where the world is today against the Global Goals

我们需要先弄明白如果要实现这些全球目标， 我们当今的世界的状态是怎样的，

and figure out how far we have to travel.

并且要找出我们还有多少路要走。

But that ain't easy,

这并不容易，

because the Global Goals aren't just ambitious,

因为这些全球目标不仅仅很宏大，

they're also pretty complicated.

它们同样也很复杂。

Over 17 goals, there are then 169 targets

17个大目标下有169个小目标，

and literally hundreds of indicators.

并且不夸张地说，还有好几百个指标。

Also, while some of the goals are pretty specific --

同时，其中的一些目标是特别明确的——

end hunger --

比如解决饥饿问题——

others are a lot vaguer --

其他的一些则是比较模糊的——

promote peaceful and tolerant societies.

比如促进建设和平宽容的社会。

So to help us with this benchmarking,

所以为了我们更好地认识这项研究，

I'm going to use a tool called the Social Progress Index.

我要引用一个名为“社会进步指数”的工具。

What this does is measures all the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve,

这个工具的作用就是计算出 全球目标要达到的所有指标，

but sums it up into a single number that we can use as our benchmark

然后把他们组合起来变成一串数字 以便我们研究，

and track progress over time.

并且实时查出我们的进步。

The Social Progress Index basically asks three fundamental questions

“社会进步指数”主要提了关于社会的

about a society.

三个基本问题。

First of all, does everyone have the basic needs of survival:

第一：所有人都否都有基本生存下来的条件:

food, water, shelter, safety?

食物、水、住所和安全？

Secondly, does everyone have the building blocks of a better life:

第二：是不是所有人都能为自己 更好的生活添砖加瓦？

education, information, health and a sustainable environment?

包括教育、通讯、健康和 可持续发展的环境等等。

And does everyone have the opportunity to improve their lives,

还有一点：是不是每个人都有 改善他们生活条件的机会？

through rights, freedom of choice, freedom from discrimination,

在权利、选择的自由、 不受任何歧视的自由、

and access to the world's most advanced knowledge?

和可以接触到世界先进知识等方面的机会？

The Social Progress Index sums all this together using 52 indicators

“社会进步指数”用52个指标 把这些都集中到了一起，

to create an aggregate score on a scale of 0 to 100.

算出了一个百分制的总分。

And what we find is that there's a wide diversity of performance

然后我们发现了今天的世界上的国家

in the world today.

有各种各样的成绩。

The highest performing country, Norway, scores 88.

成绩最高的国家是挪威，88分。

The lowest performing country, Central African Republic, scores 31.

成绩最低的国家是中非共和国，31分。

And we can add up all the countries together,

我们可以把所有的国家都放在一起，

weighting for the different population sizes,

考量它们具有不同的人口规模的因素后，

and that global score is 61.

得到全球的平均值是61分。

In concrete terms,

形象化地说，

that means that the average human being is living on a level of social progress

这意味着现在世界平均值的水平 是我们人类正生活在

about the same of Cuba or Kazakhstan today.

像今天的古巴或者哈萨克斯坦这样的国家里。

That's where we are today: 61 out of 100.

我们的现实就是这样：百分制中的61分。

What do we have to get to to achieve the Global Goals?

那我们如果要实现全球目标需要什么呢？

Now, the Global Goals are certainly ambitious,

其实，这些全球目标真的很宏大，

but they're not about turning the world into Norway in just 15 years.

但是这些目标不是说要在15年间 把全世界都变成挪威那样。

So having looked at the numbers, my estimate is that a score of 75

看看这些数字，我做出的预测是75分，

would not only be a giant leap forward in human well-being,

达到这个分数不仅仅是一个 关于人类福祉的巨大飞跃，

it would also count as hitting the Global Goals target.

也是一个可以实现全球目标的切实奋斗点。

So there's our target, 75 out of 100.

这就是我们的目标，百分制中的75分。

Can we get there?

我们能实现吗？

Well, the Social Progress Index can help us calculate this,

那么，“社会进步指数” 可以帮助我们算出来，

because as you might have noticed,

因为也许你已经注意到了，

there are no economic indicators in there;

这里没有任何的经济指标；

there's no GDP or economic growth in the Social Progress Index model.

在“社会进步指数”模型中没有 国内生产总值或经济增长的指标。

And what that lets us do is understand the relationship

这就要让我们弄明白经济增长

between economic growth and social progress.

和社会进步之间的关系。

Let me show you on this chart.

我来给你们看下这张图。

So here on the vertical axis, I've put social progress,

我把社会进步放在这张图的纵轴上，

the stuff the Global Goals are trying to achieve.

这就是全球目标要努力实现的东西。

Higher is better.

越高越好。

And then on the horizontal axis, is GDP per capita.

在横轴上的是人均国内生产总值。

Further to the right means richer.

越靠右边说明越富有。

And in there, I'm now going to put all the countries of the world,

在这个区域中我要把世界上 所有的国家放在里面，

each one represented by a dot,

每个国家用一个点来代替，

and on top of that I'm going to put the regression line

在这些点上面我会绘制一条回归曲线，

that shows the average relationship.

来表现两个变量间的平均关系水平。

And what this tells us is that as we get richer,

这条曲线告诉了我们越富有，

social progress does tend to improve.

社会进步就越趋于增长。

However, as we get richer, each extra dollar of GDP

然而，当我们不断变富时， 国内生产总值中每一额外美元

is buying us less and less social progress.

可以换来的社会进步值却越来越少。

And now we can use this information to start building our forecast.

现在我们就可以用这些信息 来进行我们的预测了。

So here is the world in 2015.

2015年的世界，

We have a social progress score of 61

我们的社会进步得分是61分，

and a GDP per capita of $14,000.

人均国内生产总值是14000美元。

And the place we're trying to get to, remember, is 75, that Global Goals target.

我们要努力到达的那个全球目标的分数， 还记得吧，是75分。

So here we are today, $14,000 per capita GDP.

那我们现在的 人均国内生产总值是14000美元。

How rich are we going to be in 2030?

到2030年我们会变得多富呢？

That's what we need to know next.

这就是我们接下来想要知道的了。

Well, the best forecast we can find comes from the US Department of Agriculture,

我们可以找到的最好的预测是 美国农业部做的，

which forecasts 3.1 percent average global economic growth

他们预测出了未来15年内3.1%的

over the next 15 years,

全球平均经济增长走势，

which means that in 2030, if they're right,

这意味着如果它们是准确的话，到2030年，

per capita GDP will be about $23,000.

人均国内生产总值会达到大约23000美元。

So now the question is: if we get that much richer,

那现在的问题就是： 如果我们变得那么富有了，

how much social progress are we going to get?

我们的社会进步会得到多少分呢？

Well, we asked a team of economists at Deloitte

我们咨询了德勤事务所里的经济学家，

who checked and crunched the numbers,

他们仔细地检查和研究了这些数字后，

and they came back and said, well, look: if the world's average wealth goes

回来告诉了我们，来，看： 如果世界平均财富

from $14,000 a year to $23,000 a year,

从一年14000美元涨到一年23000美元，

social progress is going to increase

社会进步得分会

from 61 to 62.4.

从61分涨到62.4分。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Just 62.4. Just a tiny increase.

真的是62.4分。仅仅增加了一点儿。

Now this seems a bit strange.

这看起来就有点奇怪了。

Economic growth seems to have really helped

经济的增长看起来对解决贫穷问题

in the fight against poverty,

帮助很大。

but it doesn't seem to be having much impact

但它似乎并不能对我们达到全球目标

on trying to get to the Global Goals.

有多大的帮助。

So what's going on?

那这是怎么回事呢？

Well, I think there are two things.

我觉得有两个原因。

The first is that in a way, we're the victims of our own success.

其一是，在某种程度上， 我们是我们取得的成功的受害者。

We've used up the easy wins from economic growth,

我们把从经济增长中获得的 表面上的好处都用光了，

and now we're moving on to harder problems.

现在我们就得面临更加困难的问题。

And also, we know that economic growth comes with costs as well as benefits.

其二，我们知道经济增长带来了好处， 但同时也带来了代价。

There are costs to the environment, costs from new health problems like obesity.

比如破坏环境的代价，还有比如产生了 如肥胖等一些新健康问题的代价。

So that's the bad news.

这就是个坏消息了。

We're not going to get to the Global Goals just by getting richer.

所以如果想仅凭变得更富 就到达全球目标是不可行的了。

So are the pessimists right?

那么那些悲观主义者就是正确的吗？

Well, maybe not.

其实，应该不是。

Because the Social Progress Index also has some very good news.

因为关于“社会进步指数”也有很多好消息。

Let me take you back to that regression line.

咱们再看一下那条回归曲线。

So this is the average relationship between GDP and social progress,

这是国内生产总值和社会进步之间的 平均关系水平曲线，

and this is what our last forecast was based on.

这也是我们上一个预测的基础。

But as you saw already,

但正如你们看到的，

there is actually lots of noise around this trend line.

在这条曲线周围 其实还有很多不在线上的点。

What that tells us, quite simply,

这也就很明确地告诉了我们

is that GDP is not destiny.

国内生产总值不是决定性的因素。

We have countries that are underperforming

世界上有一些比较富有，

on social progress, relative to their wealth.

然而社会进步得分比较低的国家。

Russia has lots of natural resource wealth,

俄罗斯有很多自然资源财富，

but lots of social problems.

但同时也有很多社会问题。

China has boomed economically,

中国的经济发展欣欣向荣，

but hasn't made much headway on human rights or environmental issues.

但在人权和环境问题上还没取得 很大的进步。

India has a space program and millions of people without toilets.

印度有太空计划， 但也有上百万人无厕所可用。

Now, on the other hand, we have countries that are overperforming

另一方面，同样也存在国内生产总值不高，

on social progress relative to their GDP.

但是社会进步得分却比较高的国家。

Costa Rica has prioritized education, health and environmental sustainability,

哥斯达黎加在教育、医疗和 环境可持续性上处于领先水平。

and as a result, it's achieving a very high level of social progress,

所以尽管它的国内生产总值不高，

despite only having a rather modest GDP.

但它的社会进步水平却很高。

And Costa Rica's not alone.

哥斯达黎加也并非个案。

From poor countries like Rwanda to richer countries like New Zealand,

从像卢旺达这样的穷国家 到像新西兰这样的富国家，

we see that it's possible to get lots of social progress,

我们发现了即使国家的 国内生产总值不高，

even if your GDP is not so great.

也有可能取得很大的社会进步。

And that's really important, because it tells us two things.

这一点很重要， 因为它告诉了我们两件事。

First of all, it tells us that we already in the world have the solutions

首先，它告诉了我们在当今世界上， 我们已经有了一些可以应对

to many of the problems that the Global Goals are trying to solve.

全球目标要解决的问题的方法。

It also tells us that we're not slaves to GDP.

而且，它还告诉了我们 我们并不是国内生产总值的奴隶。

Our choices matter: if we prioritize the well-being of people,

我们如何选择是有决定性的： 如果我们把人民的幸福放在首位，

then we can make a lot more progress than our GDP might expect.

那么我们就可以创造出 比国内生产总值能创造的更多的进步。

How much? Enough to get us to the Global Goals?

我们要取得多少进步来到达全球目标呢？

Well, let's look at some numbers.

咱们来看看这些数字。

What we know already: the world today is scoring 61 on social progress,

我们已经知道： 当今世界的平均社会进步值是61分。

and the place we want to get to is 75.

我们想要达到的目标是75分。

If we rely on economic growth alone,

如果我们仅仅依赖经济增长，

we're going to get to 62.4.

我们到时候只能取得62.4分。

So let's assume now that we can get the countries that are currently

那我们假设一下我们可以把 现在社会进步得分较低的国家——

underperforming on social progress -- the Russia, China, Indias --

比如俄罗斯、中国、印度等国

just up to the average.

提高到平均水平。

How much social progress does that get us?

那我们可以取得的进步会是多少分呢？

Well, that takes us to 65.

大概是65分。

It's a bit better, but still quite a long way to go.

这已经挺不错了， 但其实还有很长的路要走。

So let's get a little bit more optimistic and say,

所以我们乐观点说，

what if every country gets a little bit better

如果所有国家都把一点 创造财富的精力

at turning its wealth into well-being?

转移到为人民增加福祉上会是怎样呢？

Well then, we get to 67.

那我们的平均得分将会提高到67分。

And now let's be even bolder still.

让我们再更加地直白一点。

What if every country in the world chose to be like Costa Rica

如果世界上所有国家都像哥斯达黎加一样，

in prioritizing human well-being,

把人民幸福放在首位，

using its wealth for the well-being of its citizens?

把国家的财富用到增加人民幸福 将会怎样呢？

Well then, we get to nearly 73, very close to the Global Goals.

这样的话，我们就能得到将近73分， 非常接近全球目标了。

Can we achieve the Global Goals?

那我们能到达全球目标吗？

Certainly not with business as usual.

像通常那样通过经济的方式显然不行。

Even a flood tide of economic growth is not going to get us there,

如果仅仅增加大富翁和 超级富豪的数量

if it just raises the mega-yachts and the super-wealthy

而置其他于不顾，

and leaves the rest behind.

那即使经济以洪水式的猛涨都不行。

If we're going to achieve the Global Goals we have to do things differently.

如果我们想到达那些全球目标 我们就需要做一些不样的。

We have to prioritize social progress, and really scale solutions

我们要把社会进步放在首位， 并且在世界范围内

around the world.

遴选方案。

I believe the Global Goals are a historic opportunity,

我相信这个全球目标是一个 历史性的机遇，

because the world's leaders have promised to deliver them.

因为全球的领导人 都已经承诺了要实现它。

Let's not dismiss the goals or slide into pessimism;

我们不要不管这些目标， 也不要陷入悲观主义的泥潭。

let's hold them to that promise.

我们要坚持实现承诺。

And we need to hold them to that promise by holding them accountable,

我们要负责任地坚持实现承诺，

tracking their progress all the way through the next 15 years.

要在未来15年内始终追踪我们的进步。

And I want to finish by showing you

我想给你们展示一种可行的方法 来结束这个演讲，

a way to do that, called the People's Report Card.

这个方法叫做“人民成绩单”。

The People's Report Card brings together all this data into a simple framework

“人民成绩单”把所有的数据 转变为一种

that we'll all be familiar with from our school days,

我们在学生时代都很熟悉的方式，

to hold them to account.

来作出一个解释。

It grades our performance on the Global Goals

成绩单把我们实现全球目标过程中的得分

on a scale from F to A,

作出从F到A的分级评估。

where F is humanity at its worst, and A is humanity at its best.

F代表最不人性， A代表最人性。

Our world today is scoring a C-.

我们当今的世界得分是C-。

The Global Goals are all about getting to an A,

实现全球目标要求我们得到A，

and that's why we're going to be updating the People's Report Card annually,

这就是我们每年都要更新 “人民成绩单”的原因，

for the world and for all the countries of the world,

这都是为了这个世界， 为了世界上的所有国家，

so we can hold our leaders to account

我们的领导人要承担起责任

to achieve this target and fulfill this promise.

来实现这个目标， 兑现他们的承诺。

Because getting to the Global Goals will only happen if we do things differently,

因为只有我们做一些改变， 我们的领导人做一些改变，

if our leaders do things differently,

我们才能达到全球目标，

and for that to happen, that needs us to demand it.

要实现目标就需要各位 切实地去做。

So let's reject business as usual.

那就让我们一起摒弃掉传统的观念。

Let's demand a different path.

让我们一起走一条不同的路。

Let's choose the world that we want.

让我们选择我们想要的世界。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Bruno Giussani: Thank you, Michael.

Bruno Giussani：谢谢你，Michael。

Michael, just one question: the Millennium Development Goals

Michael，我就问一个问题： 千年发展目标

established 15 years ago,

是15年前确立的，

they were kind of applying to every country

当时基本上每个国家都 选择要实现这个目标，

but it turned out to be really a scorecard for emerging countries.

然而它却真的变成了新兴国家的记分牌。

Now the new Global Goals are explicitly universal.

现在新的全球目标 很明确地被各国通用。

They ask for every country to show action and to show progress.

它要求所有国家要行动起来， 要有所进步。

How can I, as a private citizen, use the report card

那么作为一个普通公民， 我怎么才能用这个成绩单

to create pressure for action?

来监督国家的行动呢？

Michael Green: This is a really important point; it's a big shift in priorities --

Michael Green：你提的这点很重要； 这次在首要性方面会有很大改变。

it's no longer about poor countries and just poverty.

这不再是仅关乎于贫穷国家 和贫穷问题了。

It's about every country.

这关乎于所有国家。

And every country is going to have challenges in getting to the Global Goals.

而且每个国家要到达全球目标 都会面临挑战。

Even, I'm sorry to say, Bruno, Switzerland has got to work to do.

Bruno，甚至很遗憾地说， 瑞士也有工作要做。

And so that's why we're going to produce these report cards in 2016

这就是为什么我们要在2016年 为全世界所有国家

for every country in the world.

都做一个成绩单。

Then we can really see, how are we doing?

这样我们就能真正地看到 我们做得怎么样了。

And it's not going to be rich countries scoring straight A's.

而且也不是说能拿到A的 就只是富国家。

And that, then, I think, is to provide a point of focus

于是我认为， 我们要把关注点放在

for people to start demanding action and start demanding progress.

人们要开始切实地行动 和开始在进步上努力。

BG: Thank you very much.

Bruno Giussani：非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）