Why we think it's OK to cheat and steal (sometimes) | Dan Ariely

Prevodilac: Stevan Radanovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

I want to talk to you today a little bit

Danas bih hteo da vam nakratko govorim

about predictable irrationality.

o predvidivoj iracionalnosti.

And my interest in irrational behavior

Moje interesovanje za iracionalno ponašanje

started many years ago in the hospital.

je počelo pre mnogo godina, u bolnici.

I was burned very badly.

Dobio sam veoma ozbiljne opekotine.

And if you spend a lot of time in hospital,

Ako provedete puno vremena u bolnici,

you'll see a lot of types of irrationalities.

videćete puno različitih iracionalnosti.

And the one that particularly bothered me in the burn department

Ona koja mi je posebno smetala u odeljenju za opekotine

was the process by which the nurses took the bandage off me.

je bio način na koji su medicinske sestre skidale zavoje sa mene.

Now, you must have all taken a Band-Aid off at some point,

Sigurno je svako od vas nekada skidao flaster,

and you must have wondered what's the right approach.

i mora da ste se pitali koji je pravi pristup.

Do you rip it off quickly -- short duration but high intensity --

Da li da ga skinete jednim brzim potezom -- kratko trajanje, ali visok intenzitet --

or do you take your Band-Aid off slowly --

ili da svoj flaster skinete polako --

you take a long time, but each second is not as painful --

treba Vam više vremena, ali svaki trenutak nije toliko bolan --

which one of those is the right approach?

koji od ovih pristupa je pravi?

The nurses in my department thought that the right approach

Medicinske sestre u mom odeljenju su mislile da je pravi pristup

was the ripping one, so they would grab hold and they would rip,

brzog skidanja zavoja, te bi ga dohvatile i naglo otkinule,

and they would grab hold and they would rip.

i dohvatile drugi i otkinule.

And because I had 70 percent of my body burned, it would take about an hour.

Budući da mi je 70% tela bilo pod opekotinama, to bi potrajalo oko sat vremena.

And as you can imagine,

Kao što možete zamisliti,

I hated that moment of ripping with incredible intensity.

mrzeo sam taj momenat otkidanja zavoja uz bol ogromnog intenziteta.

And I would try to reason with them and say,

Pokušavao sam ih urazumiti govoreći:

"Why don't we try something else?

"Zašto ne bismo probali nešto drugo?

Why don't we take it a little longer --

Zašto ne bismo produžili postupak --

maybe two hours instead of an hour -- and have less of this intensity?"

možda na dva sata umesto jednog -- i time smanjili intenzitet bola?"

And the nurses told me two things.

Medicinske sestre su mi rekle dve stvari.

They told me that they had the right model of the patient --

Rekle su mi da su upoznate sa pravim modelom pacijenta --

that they knew what was the right thing to do to minimize my pain --

da znaju kako postupati da bi smanjile bol koji osećam --

and they also told me that the word patient doesn't mean

takođe su mi rekle da reč "pacijent" (eng. patient - strpljiv) ne predstavlja

to make suggestions or to interfere or ...

osobu koja daje predloge ili se meša u njihov posao ili...

This is not just in Hebrew, by the way.

Uzgred, ta dvoznačnost postoji i van hebrejskog jezika.

It's in every language I've had experience with so far.

U svakom jeziku sa kojim sam se susreo do sada.

And, you know, there's not much -- there wasn't much I could do,

Znate, nema puno -- nije bilo puno toga što sam mogao uraditi,

and they kept on doing what they were doing.

i one su nastavile da rade kako su radile do tad.

And about three years later, when I left the hospital,

Oko tri godine kasnije, kad sam izašao iz bolnice,

I started studying at the university.

počeo sam studije na univerzitetu.

And one of the most interesting lessons I learned

Jedna od najinteresantnijih lekcija koje sam naučio

was that there is an experimental method

je o postojanju eksperimentalnog metoda,

that if you have a question you can create a replica of this question

da ako imate neko pitanje možete postaviti repliku tog pitanja

in some abstract way, and you can try to examine this question,

na neki apstraktan način, i možete pokušati da ispitate to pitanje,

maybe learn something about the world.

i možda naučite nešto o svetu.

So that's what I did.

To je ono što sam uradio.

I was still interested

Još uvek sam bio zainteresovan za to

in this question of how do you take bandages off burn patients.

kako skidati zavoje sa pacijenata sa opekotinama.

So originally I didn't have much money,

U početku nisam imao puno novca,

so I went to a hardware store and I bought a carpenter's vice.

tako da sam otišao do prodavnice alata i kupio stolarsku stegu.

And I would bring people to the lab and I would put their finger in it,

Dovodio bih ljude u laboratoriju i stavljao njihove prste u stegu,

and I would crunch it a little bit.

i onda ih drobio malo.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I would crunch it for long periods and short periods,

Drobio bih ih u dugim i kratkim intervalima,

and pain that went up and pain that went down,

uz pojačanje i smanjenje intenziteta bola,

and with breaks and without breaks -- all kinds of versions of pain.

sa i bez pauza -- svakakve varijante bola.

And when I finished hurting people a little bit, I would ask them,

Kada bih završio sa tim malim povređivanjem ljudi, pitao bih ih,

so, how painful was this? Or, how painful was this?

koliko je ovo bolelo? A koliko je ovo bolelo?

Or, if you had to choose between the last two,

Ako biste morali da izaberete između poslednja dva,

which one would you choose?

koje biste izabrali?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I kept on doing this for a while.

Radio sam to neko vreme.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And then, like all good academic projects, I got more funding.

A zatim, kao svaki dobar akademski projekat, dobio sam više novčanih sredstava.

I moved to sounds, electrical shocks --

Prešao sam na zvuke, električne šokove --

I even had a pain suit that I could get people to feel much more pain.

čak sam imao i odelo za bol u kojem su ljudi mogli osetiti jači bol.

But at the end of this process,

Na kraju ovog procesa

what I learned was that the nurses were wrong.

sam naučio da medicinske sestre nisu bile u pravu.

Here were wonderful people with good intentions

To su bili divni ljudi sa dobrim namerama

and plenty of experience, and nevertheless

i puno iskustva, ali su ipak

they were getting things wrong predictably all the time.

predvidivo radili stvari pogrešno svaki put.

It turns out that because we don't encode duration

Ispostavlja se da bih, zbog toga što ne procesiramo trajanje

in the way that we encode intensity,

na isti način kao što procesiramo intenzitet,

I would have had less pain if the duration would have been longer

osećao manje bola da je trajanje bilo duže,

and the intensity was lower.

a intenzitet niži.

It turns out it would have been better to start with my face,

Ispostavlja se da bi bilo bolje da se počinjalo sa mojim licem,

which was much more painful, and move toward my legs,

što je uvek bilo najbolnije i nastavljalo ka nogama,

giving me a trend of improvement over time --

pružajući mi osećaj napretka sa vremenom --

that would have been also less painful.

to bi takođe bilo manje bolno.

And it also turns out that it would have been good

Takođe se ispostavlja da bi bilo dobro da sam imao

to give me breaks in the middle to kind of recuperate from the pain.

pauze u sredini, ne bih li se malo oporavio od bola.

All of these would have been great things to do,

Bilo bi odlično da smo radili sve ove stvari,

and my nurses had no idea.

ali medicinske sestre nisu imale predstavu o tome.

And from that point on I started thinking,

Od tog trenutka sam počeo da razmišljam,

are the nurses the only people in the world who get things wrong

da li su medicinske sestre u ovom slučaju jedine osobe na svetu

in this particular decision, or is it a more general case?

koje pogrešno procenjuju stvari ili je to uobičajena pojava?

And it turns out it's a more general case --

A ispostavlja se da jeste uobičajena --

there's a lot of mistakes we do.

svi mi pravimo mnogo grešaka.

And I want to give you one example of one of these irrationalities,

Sada želim da vam dam jedan primer tih iracionalnosti,

and I want to talk to you about cheating.

a pričaću o varanju.

And the reason I picked cheating is because it's interesting,

Izabrao sam varanje zato što je zanimljivo,

but also it tells us something, I think,

a pored toga nam govori, čini mi se,

about the stock market situation we're in.

nešto o trenutnoj situaciji na berzi.

So, my interest in cheating started

Dakle, moje interesovanje za varanje je počelo

when Enron came on the scene, exploded all of a sudden,

kada je Enron stupio na scenu, iznenada pukao,

and I started thinking about what is happening here.

što me je nateralo da se zamislim o tome šta se dešava tu.

Is it the case that there was kind of

Da li je to slučaj u kojem su par

a few apples who are capable of doing these things,

"pokvarenih jabuka" u stanju da urade te stvari,

or are we talking a more endemic situation,

ili govorimo o raširenijoj pojavi,

that many people are actually capable of behaving this way?

tj. da su mnogi ljudi sposobni da se ponašaju na taj način?

So, like we usually do, I decided to do a simple experiment.

I kao što obično radimo, odlučio sam da sprovedem jednostavan eksperiment.

And here's how it went.

Odvijao se na sledeći način.

If you were in the experiment, I would pass you a sheet of paper

Svim učesnicima eksperimenta bih prosledio list papira

with 20 simple math problems that everybody could solve,

sa 20 jednostavnih matematičkih problema koje je svako u stanju da reši,

but I wouldn't give you enough time.

ali im ne bih dao dovoljno vremena.

When the five minutes were over, I would say,

Po isteku 5 minuta bih rekao

"Pass me the sheets of paper, and I'll pay you a dollar per question."

"Dodajte mi listove papira, a ja ću vam platiti dolar po rešenom pitanju."

People did this. I would pay people four dollars for their task --

Ljudi bi to radili, a ja bih plaćao 4 dolara za njihov rad --

on average people would solve four problems.

ljudi su u proseku rešavali po 4 problema.

Other people I would tempt to cheat.

Druge ljude sam stavljao u iskušenje da varaju.

I would pass their sheet of paper.

Prosledio bih im po list papira.

When the five minutes were over, I would say,

Po isteku 5 minuta bih rekao

"Please shred the piece of paper.

"Molim vas, iscepajte te listove.

Put the little pieces in your pocket or in your backpack,

Stavite komadiće u svoj džep ili ranac,

and tell me how many questions you got correctly."

i recite mi koliko ste pitanja tačno odgovorili."

People now solved seven questions on average.

Ljudi su sada u proseku "rešavali" po 7 pitanja.

Now, it wasn't as if there was a few bad apples --

Ali, nije kao da je tu bilo nekoliko "pokvarenih jabuka" --

a few people cheated a lot.

par ljudi koji su puno varali.

Instead, what we saw is a lot of people who cheat a little bit.

Zapravo, ono što smo primetili je da je puno ljudi varalo veoma malo.

Now, in economic theory,

U ekonomskoj teoriji

cheating is a very simple cost-benefit analysis.

varanje je veoma jednostavna analiza troškova i dobiti.

You say, what's the probability of being caught?

Zapitate se: koja je verovatnoća da će me uhvatiti?

How much do I stand to gain from cheating?

Koliko mogu dobiti varanjem?

And how much punishment would I get if I get caught?

Kolika će biti kazna ako me uhvate u varanju?

And you weigh these options out --

Izvagate ove opcije --

you do the simple cost-benefit analysis,

uradite jednostavnu analizu troškova i dobiti,

and you decide whether it's worthwhile to commit the crime or not.

i odlučite da li se isplati počiniti zločin ili ne.

So, we try to test this.

Odlučili smo testirati to.

For some people, we varied how much money they could get away with --

Nekim ljudima smo varirali sa koliko novca mogu otići --

how much money they could steal.

odnosno koliko mogu ukrasti.

We paid them 10 cents per correct question, 50 cents,

Plaćali smo im 10 centi po tačnom odgovoru, 50 centi,

a dollar, five dollars, 10 dollars per correct question.

dolar, 5 dolara, 10 dolara po tačnom odgovoru.

You would expect that as the amount of money on the table increases,

Očekivali biste da kako raste količina ponuđenog novca

people would cheat more, but in fact it wasn't the case.

ljudi varaju više, ali to nije bio slučaj.

We got a lot of people cheating by stealing by a little bit.

Bilo je puno ljudi koji su varali, tako što bi ukrali veoma malo.

What about the probability of being caught?

Šta je sa verovatnoćom da budu uhvaćeni?

Some people shredded half the sheet of paper,

Neki ljudi su pocepali pola lista papira,

so there was some evidence left.

tako da je ipak i dalje postojao neki dokaz.

Some people shredded the whole sheet of paper.

Neki ljudi su pocepali ceo papir.

Some people shredded everything, went out of the room,

Neki ljudi su pocepali sve, izašli iz sobe,

and paid themselves from the bowl of money that had over 100 dollars.

i sami sebe isplatili iz posude u kojoj se nalazilo više od 100 dolara.

You would expect that as the probability of being caught goes down,

Očekivali biste da će, kako verovatnoća da budu uhvaćeni opada,

people would cheat more, but again, this was not the case.

ljudi varati više, ali opet, to nije bio slučaj.

Again, a lot of people cheated by just by a little bit,

I dalje je puno ljudi varalo veoma malo,

and they were insensitive to these economic incentives.

i na njih nisu uticali ovi ekonomski podsticaji.

So we said, "If people are not sensitive

Zapitali smo se "Ako ljudi ne reaguju

to the economic rational theory explanations, to these forces,

po ekonomski racionalnim teorijskim objašnjenjima, po tim silama,

what could be going on?"

šta se dešava?"

And we thought maybe what is happening is that there are two forces.

Pomislili smo da je možda pravo objašnjenje za to što se dešava postojanje dve sile.

At one hand, we all want to look at ourselves in the mirror

Sa jedne strane, svako od nas želi da kad se pogleda u ogledalo

and feel good about ourselves, so we don't want to cheat.

bude zadovoljan sobom, te ne želi da vara.

On the other hand, we can cheat a little bit,

Sa druge strane, možemo varati veoma malo,

and still feel good about ourselves.

a ipak biti zadovoljni sobom.

So, maybe what is happening is that

Možda je objašnjenje za to

there's a level of cheating we can't go over,

postojanje granice u stepenu varanja preko koje ne možemo preći,

but we can still benefit from cheating at a low degree,

ali ipak možemo profitirati od varanja u manjoj količini,

as long as it doesn't change our impressions about ourselves.

sve dok ono ne utiče na naš utisak o nama samima.

We call this like a personal fudge factor.

Ovo smo nazvali "lični faktor laganja".

Now, how would you test a personal fudge factor?

Sada, kako biste ispitali lični faktor laganja?

Initially we said, what can we do to shrink the fudge factor?

U početku smo se zapitali šta možemo da uradimo da smanjimo faktor laganja?

So, we got people to the lab, and we said,

Stoga smo dovodili ljude u laboratoriju i govorili im

"We have two tasks for you today."

"Danas imamo za vas dva zadatka."

First, we asked half the people

Prvo smo pitali polovinu ljudi

to recall either 10 books they read in high school,

da se prisete ili 10 knjiga koje su čitali u srednjoj školi

or to recall The Ten Commandments,

ili 10 Božijih zapovesti,

and then we tempted them with cheating.

a onda smo ih stavili u iskušenje da varaju.

Turns out the people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments --

Ispostavlja se da ljudi koji su se prisećali 10 Božijih zapovesti --

and in our sample nobody could recall all of The Ten Commandments --

a u našem uzorku niko nije mogao da se priseti svih 10 --

but those people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments,

ali ti ljudi koji su se prisećali 10 Božijih zapovesti,

given the opportunity to cheat, did not cheat at all.

i pored toga što im je omogućeno da varaju, nisu varali uopšte.

It wasn't that the more religious people --

Nije kao da su religiozniji ljudi --

the people who remembered more of the Commandments -- cheated less,

oni koji se se prisetili više Zapovesti -- varali manje,

and the less religious people --

a da su manje religiozni ljudi --

the people who couldn't remember almost any Commandments --

oni koji nisu mogli da se prisete skoro nijedne Zapovesti --

cheated more.

varali više.

The moment people thought about trying to recall The Ten Commandments,

Onog trenutka kada su počeli da razmišljaju prisećajući se 10 Božijih zapovesti,

they stopped cheating.

prestali su da varaju.

In fact, even when we gave self-declared atheists

Zapravo, čak i kada smo dali zadatak samoproklamovanim ateistima

the task of swearing on the Bible and we give them a chance to cheat,

da se zakunu na Bibliji, a zatim im pružili šansu da varaju,

they don't cheat at all.

uopšte nisu varali.

Now, Ten Commandments is something that is hard

10 Božijih zapovesti predstavljaju nešto što će teško

to bring into the education system, so we said,

ući u obrazovni sistem, te smo se zapitali

"Why don't we get people to sign the honor code?"

"Zašto ljudi ne bi potpisivali kodeks časti?"

So, we got people to sign,

Dali smo ljudima da potpišu

"I understand that this short survey falls under the MIT Honor Code."

"Razumem da ovo kratko ispitivanje potpada pod kodeks časti MIT-a."

Then they shredded it. No cheating whatsoever.

Zatim bi ga sami pocepali. I opet nema bilo kakvog varanja.

And this is particularly interesting,

Ovo je posebno zanimljivo,

because MIT doesn't have an honor code.

zato što MIT nema kodeks časti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So, all this was about decreasing the fudge factor.

Dakle, sve ovo je bilo vezano za smanjivanje faktora laganja.

What about increasing the fudge factor?

Pitanje je kako povećati faktor laganja?

The first experiment -- I walked around MIT

Prvi eksperiment -- šetao sam po MIT-u

and I distributed six-packs of Cokes in the refrigerators --

i raspodelio pakovanja od 6 Koka-Kola po frižiderima --

these were common refrigerators for the undergrads.

to su bili standardni frižideri koje koriste studenti.

And I came back to measure what we technically call

Zatim sam se vratio da bih merio ono što tehnički nazivamo

the half-lifetime of Coke -- how long does it last in the refrigerators?

polu-život Koka-Kole, tj. koliko vremena prođe dok je neko ne uzme iz frižidera?

As you can expect it doesn't last very long; people take it.

Kao što možete pretpostaviti, ne prođe puno vremena. Ljudi ih uzimaju.

In contrast, I took a plate with six one-dollar bills,

Nasuprot tome, na tanjire sam stavio po 6 novčanica od dolar,

and I left those plates in the same refrigerators.

a zatim te tanjire ostavio u istim frižiderima.

No bill ever disappeared.

Nijedna novčanica nijednom nije uzeta.

Now, this is not a good social science experiment,

Ovo nije dobar eksperiment društvenih nauka,

so to do it better I did the same experiment

te sam, da bih ga uradio bolje, ponovio isti eksperiment

as I described to you before.

na način koji sam vam već objasnio ranije.

A third of the people we passed the sheet, they gave it back to us.

Trećina ljudi kojima smo dali papir su nam ga vratili.

A third of the people we passed it to, they shredded it,

Trećina ljudi kojima smo ga dali su ga pocepali,

they came to us and said,

došli do nas i rekli

"Mr. Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X dollars."

"G-dine Eksperimentatoru, rešio sam X zadataka. Daćete mi X dolara."

A third of the people, when they finished shredding the piece of paper,

Trećina ljudi, pošto bi završili sa cepanjem papira,

they came to us and said,

bi došli do nas i rekli

"Mr Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X tokens."

"G-dine Eksperimentatoru, rešio sam X zadataka. Daćete mi X žetona."

We did not pay them with dollars; we paid them with something else.

Nismo ih isplaćivali u dolarima. Plaćali smo ih nečim drugim.

And then they took the something else, they walked 12 feet to the side,

Oni su uzimali to nešto drugo, pomerili se 4 metra u stranu,

and exchanged it for dollars.

i zamenili to za dolare.

Think about the following intuition.

Razmislite o sledećoj intuiciji.

How bad would you feel about taking a pencil from work home,

Koliko loše biste se osećali da ponesete olovku sa posla kući,

compared to how bad would you feel

a onda uporedite to sa time koliko biste se loše osećali

about taking 10 cents from a petty cash box?

da uzmete 10 centi iz blagajne?

These things feel very differently.

Ove stvari doživljavamo veoma drugačije.

Would being a step removed from cash for a few seconds

Da li će razdvajanje od novca za jedan korak koji traje par sekundi

by being paid by token make a difference?

time što se isplata vrši u žetonima napraviti ikakvu razliku?

Our subjects doubled their cheating.

Naši ispitanici su udvostručili varanje.

I'll tell you what I think

Reći ću vam svoje mišljenje

about this and the stock market in a minute.

o ovoj pojavi i berzi za koji trenutak.

But this did not solve the big problem I had with Enron yet,

Ali ovo još nije rešilo veliki problem koji sam imao vezano za Enron,

because in Enron, there's also a social element.

budući da u Enronu postoji i društveni element.

People see each other behaving.

Ljudi primećuju kako se drugi ponašaju.

In fact, every day when we open the news

Zapravo, svakog dana kada čitamo vesti

we see examples of people cheating.

vidimo primere ljudi koji varaju.

What does this cause us?

Šta to izaziva u nama?

So, we did another experiment.

Uradili smo još jedan eksperiment.

We got a big group of students to be in the experiment,

Velika grupa studenata je učestvovala u eksperimentu

and we prepaid them.

i platili smo im unapred.

So everybody got an envelope with all the money for the experiment,

Svako je dobio kovertu sa svim parama za eksperiment,

and we told them that at the end, we asked them

i to smo im rekli na kraju i zamolili ih

to pay us back the money they didn't make. OK?

da nam vrate pare koje nisu zaradili. OK?

The same thing happens.

Ista stvar se dogodila.

When we give people the opportunity to cheat, they cheat.

Kada damo ljudima priliku da varaju, oni varaju.

They cheat just by a little bit, all the same.

Varaju veoma malo, ali svi ujednačeno.

But in this experiment we also hired an acting student.

Ali u ovom eksperimentu smo takođe imali i studenta glumca.

This acting student stood up after 30 seconds, and said,

Taj student glumac bi ustao posle 30 sekundi od početka i rekao

"I solved everything. What do I do now?"

"Rešio sam sve. Šta da radim sad?"

And the experimenter said, "If you've finished everything, go home.

Na to bi čovek koji je vršio eksperiment rekao "Ako ste završili sve, možete ići kući."

That's it. The task is finished."

To je to. Zadatak je završen.

So, now we had a student -- an acting student --

Dakle, sada smo imali studenta -- studenta glumca --

that was a part of the group.

koji je bio član grupe.

Nobody knew it was an actor.

Niko nije znao da je on glumac.

And they clearly cheated in a very, very serious way.

I bilo je jasno da vara na veoma, veoma ozbiljan način.

What would happen to the other people in the group?

Šta će se dogoditi sa ostalim članovima grupe?

Will they cheat more, or will they cheat less?

Da li će varati više ili će varati manje?

Here is what happens.

Evo šta se dogadilo.

It turns out it depends on what kind of sweatshirt they're wearing.

Ispostavlja se da zavisi od toga koji duks glumac student nosi.

Here is the thing.

Štos je u sledećem.

We ran this at Carnegie Mellon and Pittsburgh.

Ovaj eksperiment smo sprovodili na Karnegi Melonu u Pitsburgu.

And at Pittsburgh there are two big universities,

U Pitsburgu postoje dva velika univerziteta,

Carnegie Mellon and University of Pittsburgh.

Karnegi Melon i pitsburški univerzitet.

All of the subjects sitting in the experiment

Svi ispitanici u eksperimentu

were Carnegie Mellon students.

su bili studenti Karnegi Melona.

When the actor who was getting up was a Carnegie Mellon student --

Kada je glumac koji je ustao bio student Karnegi Melona --

he was actually a Carnegie Mellon student --

on jeste zapravo bio student Karnegi Melona --

but he was a part of their group, cheating went up.

a bio je član njihove grupe, količina varanja je rasla.

But when he actually had a University of Pittsburgh sweatshirt,

Ali kada je nosio duks pitsburškog univerziteta,

cheating went down.

količina varanja je opala.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, this is important, because remember,

Ovo je važno, setite se, jer

when the moment the student stood up,

onog trenutka kada je glumac student ustao

it made it clear to everybody that they could get away with cheating,

svima je postalo jasno da se mogu izvući sa varanjem,

because the experimenter said,

budući da je osoba koja je sprovodila eksperiment rekla

"You've finished everything. Go home," and they went with the money.

"Završili ste sve. Idite kući", i glumac student bi odšetao sa parama.

So it wasn't so much about the probability of being caught again.

Dakle nije se više radilo o tome kolika je verovatnoća da ih uhvate.

It was about the norms for cheating.

Radilo se o pravilima varanja.

If somebody from our in-group cheats and we see them cheating,

Ako neko iz grupe kojoj pripadamo vara i mi vidimo da ta osoba vara,

we feel it's more appropriate, as a group, to behave this way.

kao grupa mislimo da je to ponašanje prikladnije nego što bismo inače mislili.

But if it's somebody from another group, these terrible people --

Ali ako je to pripadnik neke druge grupe, neko od tih groznih ljudi --

I mean, not terrible in this --

mislim, nisu zapravo grozni --

but somebody we don't want to associate ourselves with,

već neko sa kime ne želimo da budemo dovedeni u vezu,

from another university, another group,

sa drugog univerziteta, iz druge grupe,

all of a sudden people's awareness of honesty goes up --

odjednom skače svest o poštenju --

a little bit like The Ten Commandments experiment --

unekoliko kao u eksperimentu sa 10 Božijih zapovesti --

and people cheat even less.

i ljudi varaju još manje.

So, what have we learned from this about cheating?

Dakle, šta smo iz ovoga naučili o varanju?

We've learned that a lot of people can cheat.

Naučili smo da je mnogo ljudi u stanju da vara.

They cheat just by a little bit.

Oni varaju veoma malo.

When we remind people about their morality, they cheat less.

Kada podsetimo ljude na moralnost, varaju još manje.

When we get bigger distance from cheating,

Kada postoji veća distanca od varanja,

from the object of money, for example, people cheat more.

od objekta, na primer novca, ljudi varaju više.

And when we see cheating around us,

A kada primetimo varanje u našoj okolini,

particularly if it's a part of our in-group, cheating goes up.

posebno ako je reč o članovima naše grupe, količina varanja se povećava.

Now, if we think about this in terms of the stock market,

Kada razmislimo o ovome u okviru berze,

think about what happens.

razmislite šta se događa.

What happens in a situation when you create something

Šta se dešava u situaciji kada stvorite nešto

where you pay people a lot of money

gde plaćate ljude velike sume novca

to see reality in a slightly distorted way?

kako bi posmatrali realnost na blago iskrivljeni način?

Would they not be able to see it this way?

Zar će biti nemoguće da posmatraju stvari upravo na taj način?

Of course they would.

Naravno da će biti moguće.

What happens when you do other things,

Šta se dešava kad radite druge stvari,

like you remove things from money?

poput odvajanja stvari od novca?

You call them stock, or stock options, derivatives,

Nazovete ih deonice, opcije, derivati,

mortgage-backed securities.

hipotekarne hartije od vrednosti.

Could it be that with those more distant things,

Može li se dogoditi da sa tim udaljenijim stvarima,

it's not a token for one second,

ovde nisu u pitanju žetoni koje držite sekundu,

it's something that is many steps removed from money

već nešto što je mnogo koraka odvojeno od novca

for a much longer time -- could it be that people will cheat even more?

na duže vreme -- može li se dogoditi da će ljudi varati još više?

And what happens to the social environment

I šta se dešava sa društvenim okruženjem

when people see other people behave around them?

kada ljudi primete ponašanje ljudi koji ih okružuju?

I think all of those forces worked in a very bad way

Mislim da sve te sile skupa deluju na veoma negativan način

in the stock market.

na berzi.

More generally, I want to tell you something

Uopšteno gledano, hteo bih da vam kažem ponešto

about behavioral economics.

o bihejvioralnoj ekonomiji.

We have many intuitions in our life,

Mnoge intuicije su sastavni deo naših života,

and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong.

ali poenta je da su mnoge od tih intuicija pogrešne.

The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?

Pravo pitanje je hoćemo li testirati te intuicije?

We can think about how we're going to test this intuition

Možemo razmišljati na koji način treba testiratite intuicije,

in our private life, in our business life,

u našim privatnim i poslovnim životima,

and most particularly when it goes to policy,

a ponajviše kada se radi o političkim odlukama,

when we think about things like No Child Left Behind,

kada razmišljamo o stvarima kao što je "Nijedno dete neće biti izostavljeno" zakon,

when you create new stock markets, when you create other policies --

kada stvaramo nove berze, donosimo druge političke odluke --

taxation, health care and so on.

o porezima, zdravstvenom sistemu itd.

And the difficulty of testing our intuition

Teškoća testiranja naše intuicije

was the big lesson I learned

bila je važna lekcija koju sam naučio

when I went back to the nurses to talk to them.

kada sam se otišao da popričam sa medicinskim sestrama.

So I went back to talk to them

Dakle, otišao sam nazad gde sam lečen da popričam sa njima

and tell them what I found out about removing bandages.

i da im kažem šta sam otkrio o uklanjanju zavoja.

And I learned two interesting things.

Naučio sam dve zanimljive stvari.

One was that my favorite nurse, Ettie,

Prva, koju mi je moja omiljena medicinska sestra, Eti,

told me that I did not take her pain into consideration.

rekla je da nisam razmotrio bol koji ona oseća.

She said, "Of course, you know, it was very painful for you.

Rekla je "Znaš, naravno da je to bilo veoma bolno za tebe.

But think about me as a nurse,

Ali misli o meni kao o medicinskoj sestri

taking, removing the bandages of somebody I liked,

koja skida zavoje sa nekog ko joj je drag

and had to do it repeatedly over a long period of time.

i koja to mora da radi mnogo puta kroz duži vremenski period.

Creating so much torture was not something that was good for me, too."

Uzrokovanje tolike količine mučenja nije nešto što je dobro za mene, takođe."

And she said maybe part of the reason was it was difficult for her.

I rekla je, možda je činjenica da je to teško i za nju deo razloga.

But it was actually more interesting than that, because she said,

Ali postaje još interesantnije, jer je rekla

"I did not think that your intuition was right.

"Nisam mislila da je tvoja intuicija ispravna.

I felt my intuition was correct."

Osećala sam da je moja intuicija tačna."

So, if you think about all of your intuitions,

Dakle, ako razmišljate o svim svojim intuicijama,

it's very hard to believe that your intuition is wrong.

veoma je teško poverovati da je neka od njih pogrešna.

And she said, "Given the fact that I thought my intuition was right ..." --

Takođe je rekla "Uzimajući u obzir pretpostavku da je moja intuicija tačna..." --

she thought her intuition was right --

mislila je da je njena intuicija tačna --

it was very difficult for her to accept doing a difficult experiment

bilo joj je veoma teško da prihvati obavljanje teškog eksperimenta

to try and check whether she was wrong.

ne bi li probala i proverila da je u pravu.

But in fact, this is the situation we're all in all the time.

Zapravo, ovo je situacija u kojoj se svi mi nalazimo svo vreme.

We have very strong intuitions about all kinds of things --

Posedujemo veoma jake intuicije o svakakvim stvarima --

our own ability, how the economy works,

našim sopstvenim sposobnostima, o tome kako ekonomija funkcioniše,

how we should pay school teachers.

kako bismo trebali da platimo učitelje u školama.

But unless we start testing those intuitions,

Ali ako ne počnemo da testiramo te intuicije,

we're not going to do better.

nećemo moći da radimo stvari na bolji način.

And just think about how better my life would have been

Pomislite samo koliko bi mi bolji život bio

if these nurses would have been willing to check their intuition,

da su medicinske sestre bile voljne da provere svoju intuiciju,

and how everything would have been better

i koliko bi sve bilo bolje

if we just start doing more systematic experimentation of our intuitions.

kada bismo počeli da sistematično ispitujemo naše intuicije.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.