Why we think it's OK to cheat and steal (sometimes) | Dan Ariely

翻译人员: Coco Shen 校对人员: Kyle Cai

I want to talk to you today a little bit

今日我想要稍微谈论

about predictable irrationality.

那些预知的非理性

And my interest in irrational behavior

我对非理性的行为态度产生兴趣

started many years ago in the hospital.

从很多年以前开始，在一个医院里

I was burned very badly.

当时我严重烧伤

And if you spend a lot of time in hospital,

如果你在医院里待了很长时间

you'll see a lot of types of irrationalities.

你将会看见许多不同类型的荒谬

And the one that particularly bothered me in the burn department

在医院的烧烫伤部门让我最难以接受的荒谬

was the process by which the nurses took the bandage off me.

发生在护士为我拆除绷带的时候

Now, you must have all taken a Band-Aid off at some point,

每个人应该都有使用创可贴的经验

and you must have wondered what's the right approach.

你也应该想过怎样撕掉才是最好的

Do you rip it off quickly -- short duration but high intensity --

你是瞬间撕开 － 时间短但很痛

or do you take your Band-Aid off slowly --

还是慢慢地把它撕掉

you take a long time, but each second is not as painful --

虽然时间长，但感觉不这么痛

which one of those is the right approach?

哪一种才是比较好的方式？

The nurses in my department thought that the right approach

当时在我部门的护士认为一次快速的撕开才是正确的

was the ripping one, so they would grab hold and they would rip,

她们紧抓，然后撕开

and they would grab hold and they would rip.

然后再紧抓，再撕开

And because I had 70 percent of my body burned, it would take about an hour.

当时我身体有百分之七十的烧伤，整个过程要一个小时

And as you can imagine,

你可以想象

I hated that moment of ripping with incredible intensity.

我非常痛恨撕开绷带 极端痛苦的那刻

And I would try to reason with them and say,

我努力地想和她们讲理

"Why don't we try something else?

“我们不能试试其他方法吗？

Why don't we take it a little longer --

我们不能花长一点的时间

maybe two hours instead of an hour -- and have less of this intensity?"

或许两个小时 － 让痛苦不要这么强烈？

And the nurses told me two things.

护士告诉我两件事

They told me that they had the right model of the patient --

她们告诉我她们知道什么对患者是最好的

that they knew what was the right thing to do to minimize my pain --

她们知道如何减低我的痛苦

and they also told me that the word patient doesn't mean

并且患者这个词的意思

to make suggestions or to interfere or ...

不包括”提出建议”或“尝试干涉”

This is not just in Hebrew, by the way.

不只在希伯来文是如此

It's in every language I've had experience with so far.

几乎我目前遇见的所有语言都是如此

And, you know, there's not much -- there wasn't much I could do,

于是我无能为力

and they kept on doing what they were doing.

她们继续她们的方法

And about three years later, when I left the hospital,

三年后，当我离开医院时

I started studying at the university.

我开始在大学做研究

And one of the most interesting lessons I learned

我在学校里学的最有趣的事情是

was that there is an experimental method

“实验法”的存在

that if you have a question you can create a replica of this question

你可以靠复制经验 来尝试找出解答

in some abstract way, and you can try to examine this question,

抽象地说，你可以试着检验你的问题

maybe learn something about the world.

以尝试了解这个世界上的事情

So that's what I did.

于是我就这么做了

I was still interested

我仍然对

in this question of how do you take bandages off burn patients.

如何撕开患者身上的绷带这个问题很有兴趣

So originally I didn't have much money,

刚开始我没有什么资金

so I went to a hardware store and I bought a carpenter's vice.

我去五金行买了一个木匠用的老虎钳

And I would bring people to the lab and I would put their finger in it,

我把那些来到实验室的人的手指放到里面

and I would crunch it a little bit.

然后“嘎吱”一下

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I would crunch it for long periods and short periods,

我会用较长的时间或较短的时间挤压

and pain that went up and pain that went down,

那些较为严重的痛 和较轻微的痛

and with breaks and without breaks -- all kinds of versions of pain.

有休息的 和没有休息的 － 许多不同种类的痛

And when I finished hurting people a little bit, I would ask them,

当我结束伤害他们的时候，我会问

so, how painful was this? Or, how painful was this?

这样有多痛？那样又有多痛？

Or, if you had to choose between the last two,

如果你可以从中选择一种的话

which one would you choose?

你会选择哪一种？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I kept on doing this for a while.

我这么做了一阵子

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And then, like all good academic projects, I got more funding.

就像所有优秀的学术研究一样，我有更多资金

I moved to sounds, electrical shocks --

我开始加入声波，电击

I even had a pain suit that I could get people to feel much more pain.

我甚至制作了一件“疼痛服”让人们能感受到更多痛楚

But at the end of this process,

但在研究结束后

what I learned was that the nurses were wrong.

我发觉护士们是错的

Here were wonderful people with good intentions

虽然她们都是善良的人

and plenty of experience, and nevertheless

经验丰富，但就算如此

they were getting things wrong predictably all the time.

她们的观念仍然是错误的

It turns out that because we don't encode duration

因为在我们测量痛楚时

in the way that we encode intensity,

我们并没有考虑到延续性

I would have had less pain if the duration would have been longer

如果把时间拉长

and the intensity was lower.

我的痛楚就会减低

It turns out it would have been better to start with my face,

最好的方法是从最痛的脸部开始

which was much more painful, and move toward my legs,

再逐渐地往腿部下移

giving me a trend of improvement over time --

让我有一种逐渐减缓的感觉

that would have been also less painful.

这样也能减低我的痛苦

And it also turns out that it would have been good

如果我可以在过程中稍作休息

to give me breaks in the middle to kind of recuperate from the pain.

让我有一些时间从痛楚中恢复

All of these would have been great things to do,

这所有的方法都能改善我当时的情况

and my nurses had no idea.

但这些护士却毫无所悉

And from that point on I started thinking,

从那时我开始想

are the nurses the only people in the world who get things wrong

这些护士是全世界唯一有这种错误认知的人

in this particular decision, or is it a more general case?

在这件特别的事情上，还是这其实是一种普遍现象？

And it turns out it's a more general case --

于是我发现 其实这是一个普遍现象

there's a lot of mistakes we do.

我们时常犯下这样的错误

And I want to give you one example of one of these irrationalities,

在这里我想以作弊作为例子

and I want to talk to you about cheating.

来讨论这些非理性

And the reason I picked cheating is because it's interesting,

我选择作弊的原因是因为它很有趣

but also it tells us something, I think,

也因为它也为我们现在股市的现状

about the stock market situation we're in.

提供了一些线索

So, my interest in cheating started

我对作弊的兴趣从

when Enron came on the scene, exploded all of a sudden,

美国安然公司突然爆发丑闻开始

and I started thinking about what is happening here.

我开始思考究竟发生了什么事情

Is it the case that there was kind of

难道这是来自一些

a few apples who are capable of doing these things,

害群之马才能犯下的例子

or are we talking a more endemic situation,

还是一种地方性的现象

that many people are actually capable of behaving this way?

许多人都抱持着这样的态度？

So, like we usually do, I decided to do a simple experiment.

于是，我们决定故技重施，进行一些简单的试验

And here's how it went.

我们是这样做的

If you were in the experiment, I would pass you a sheet of paper

如果你参加了这个实验，我会给你一张纸

with 20 simple math problems that everybody could solve,

上面有二十个人人能解决的简单数学问题

but I wouldn't give you enough time.

但我不会给你足够的时间

When the five minutes were over, I would say,

当五分钟到了以后，我会说

"Pass me the sheets of paper, and I'll pay you a dollar per question."

“把纸交给我，答对一题我就给你一块钱。”

People did this. I would pay people four dollars for their task --

人们这么做了。我付他们四块

on average people would solve four problems.

平均来说，人可以解决四个问题

Other people I would tempt to cheat.

我尝试引诱其中一些人作弊

I would pass their sheet of paper.

我会给他们一张纸

When the five minutes were over, I would say,

五分钟到了以后，我会说

"Please shred the piece of paper.

“请将那张纸撕碎

Put the little pieces in your pocket or in your backpack,

把碎片放在口袋或是背包里，

and tell me how many questions you got correctly."

然后告诉我你答对了几题。”

People now solved seven questions on average.

平均突然从四题变成了七题

Now, it wasn't as if there was a few bad apples --

不是有几个害群之马 --

a few people cheated a lot.

换句话说，一小群人作很大的弊

Instead, what we saw is a lot of people who cheat a little bit.

而是一大群人作一些小弊

Now, in economic theory,

在经济学理论上

cheating is a very simple cost-benefit analysis.

作弊是一种非常简单的成本效益分析

You say, what's the probability of being caught?

被抓到的可能性有多高？

How much do I stand to gain from cheating?

我作弊的好处有多少？

And how much punishment would I get if I get caught?

被抓到会有怎样的惩罚？

And you weigh these options out --

你衡量这些选项

you do the simple cost-benefit analysis,

一个简单的成本效益分析

and you decide whether it's worthwhile to commit the crime or not.

然后决定是否值得犯下罪行

So, we try to test this.

我们对此进行一些测验

For some people, we varied how much money they could get away with --

我们开始给他们不同数目的金钱

how much money they could steal.

他们所能偷窃的数目

We paid them 10 cents per correct question, 50 cents,

我们给他们十分钱，五十分

a dollar, five dollars, 10 dollars per correct question.

一块钱，五块钱，到十块钱一个问题

You would expect that as the amount of money on the table increases,

你预估当桌上的钱增多时

people would cheat more, but in fact it wasn't the case.

人们也更愿意作弊。但事实上却不是

We got a lot of people cheating by stealing by a little bit.

仍有许多人为了很少的金钱作弊

What about the probability of being caught?

那难道是被抓到的可能性吗？

Some people shredded half the sheet of paper,

有些人只撕了半张纸

so there was some evidence left.

还有些证据留下

Some people shredded the whole sheet of paper.

有些人撕碎了整张纸

Some people shredded everything, went out of the room,

有些人彻底撕碎了全部，走出房间

and paid themselves from the bowl of money that had over 100 dollars.

然后从放有超过百元美金的碗里拿走钱

You would expect that as the probability of being caught goes down,

你会预估当被抓的可能性降低

people would cheat more, but again, this was not the case.

人们作弊的几率便会提升，但却不是如此

Again, a lot of people cheated by just by a little bit,

又一次地，许多人作了一些小弊

and they were insensitive to these economic incentives.

人们并没被这些经济学所说的诱因影响

So we said, "If people are not sensitive

我们想“如果这些符合经济学逻辑的解答

to the economic rational theory explanations, to these forces,

这些原因，对人们不造成影响

what could be going on?"

那么究竟发生了什么事？”

And we thought maybe what is happening is that there are two forces.

于是我们想，或许有两种力量

At one hand, we all want to look at ourselves in the mirror

一方面，我们都有自省的能力

and feel good about ourselves, so we don't want to cheat.

都希望对自己感觉良好，所以我们不想作弊

On the other hand, we can cheat a little bit,

另一方面，我们作一点小弊

and still feel good about ourselves.

在还能对自己感觉良好的范围里

So, maybe what is happening is that

所以或许

there's a level of cheating we can't go over,

我们心中有一种不能跨越的尺度

but we can still benefit from cheating at a low degree,

但我们仍然能从一些小奸小恶中获利

as long as it doesn't change our impressions about ourselves.

只要不要让我们自己感到不齿

We call this like a personal fudge factor.

我们说这叫“自我蒙混因素”

Now, how would you test a personal fudge factor?

但我们该如何测试自我蒙混因素呢？

Initially we said, what can we do to shrink the fudge factor?

刚开始我们说，我们该怎么做来降低蒙混因素呢？

So, we got people to the lab, and we said,

当人们进入实验室时，我们说

"We have two tasks for you today."

“今日我们要给你两个任务。”

First, we asked half the people

第一，我们问其中一半的人

to recall either 10 books they read in high school,

回想十本他们在高中所看过的书

or to recall The Ten Commandments,

或是回忆圣经中的十诫

and then we tempted them with cheating.

然后我们尝试让他们作弊。

Turns out the people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments --

我们发觉那些尝试回想十诫的人

and in our sample nobody could recall all of The Ten Commandments --

虽然在我们的标本中没有任何人能完整背诵出十诫

but those people who tried to recall The Ten Commandments,

但那些尝试回想圣经十诫的人

given the opportunity to cheat, did not cheat at all.

面对作弊的可能性，却没有作弊

It wasn't that the more religious people --

那并不代表对宗教信仰比较虔诚的人

the people who remembered more of the Commandments -- cheated less,

那些能背诵出较多十诫的人，比较少作弊

and the less religious people --

或那些对宗教信仰比较不虔诚的人

the people who couldn't remember almost any Commandments --

那些无法回忆出任何一诫的人

cheated more.

比较会作弊

The moment people thought about trying to recall The Ten Commandments,

在人们尝试回想十诫的那一刻

they stopped cheating.

他们便不作弊了

In fact, even when we gave self-declared atheists

事实上，就算我们让那些自称是无神论的人

the task of swearing on the Bible and we give them a chance to cheat,

把手放在圣经上发誓，然后再给他们作弊的机会

they don't cheat at all.

他们也仍然没有作弊

Now, Ten Commandments is something that is hard

要把圣经十诫带进教育系统里

to bring into the education system, so we said,

是一件困难的事，所以我们说

"Why don't we get people to sign the honor code?"

“不然我们让人们在荣誉行为准则上签名吧？”

So, we got people to sign,

于是，我们让他们签名，

"I understand that this short survey falls under the MIT Honor Code."

“我认知这份简短调查遵行麻省理工学院的荣誉准则”

Then they shredded it. No cheating whatsoever.

然后把它撕碎。没有任何人作弊

And this is particularly interesting,

这真是非常有趣

because MIT doesn't have an honor code.

因为麻省理工学院根本没有任何荣誉准则

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So, all this was about decreasing the fudge factor.

这是有关降低蒙混因素的

What about increasing the fudge factor?

又如何提高蒙混因素呢？

The first experiment -- I walked around MIT

第一个实验中 我在麻省理工学院游走

and I distributed six-packs of Cokes in the refrigerators --

我把半打可乐放进不同的冰箱中

these were common refrigerators for the undergrads.

都是些给大学生的普通冰箱

And I came back to measure what we technically call

然后再回去测量我们所说的

the half-lifetime of Coke -- how long does it last in the refrigerators?

可乐的人生周期 - 它们能在冰箱里留多久？

As you can expect it doesn't last very long; people take it.

你可以想象那并没有多久。人们拿走它们。

In contrast, I took a plate with six one-dollar bills,

相对的，我把一个装着六章一块钱美金钞票的盘子

and I left those plates in the same refrigerators.

放进那些同样的冰箱

No bill ever disappeared.

没有任何一张美金被拿走

Now, this is not a good social science experiment,

这大概不是一个好的社会科学实验

so to do it better I did the same experiment

为了改善我再做了一次一样的实验

as I described to you before.

就像我和诸位形容的一样

A third of the people we passed the sheet, they gave it back to us.

三分之一的人把试验纸交会给我们

A third of the people we passed it to, they shredded it,

三分之一的人把纸撕碎

they came to us and said,

他们跟我们说

"Mr. Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X dollars."

“先生，我解决了几个问题，给我几块钱。”

A third of the people, when they finished shredding the piece of paper,

三分之一的人，在他们把纸撕碎以后

they came to us and said,

他们跟我们说

"Mr Experimenter, I solved X problems. Give me X tokens."

“先生，我解决了几个问题，给我几个代币。”

We did not pay them with dollars; we paid them with something else.

我们没有付他们现金，而是一些其他的代替品

And then they took the something else, they walked 12 feet to the side,

他们拿着这些代替品，走到十二英尺远的旁边

and exchanged it for dollars.

再把代替品换成现金

Think about the following intuition.

试着想想以下的假设状况

How bad would you feel about taking a pencil from work home,

从公司拿一支铅笔

compared to how bad would you feel

或是从公司钱柜里拿走十分钱

about taking 10 cents from a petty cash box?

哪一种感觉比较差？

These things feel very differently.

这些事给人的感觉差异很大

Would being a step removed from cash for a few seconds

把现金移动到稍为远一点的地方，改拿代币

by being paid by token make a difference?

能不能造成什么差异？

Our subjects doubled their cheating.

我们实验对象的作弊情况提高了两倍

I'll tell you what I think

稍后我会告诉你

about this and the stock market in a minute.

这些例子和股市有什么关联

But this did not solve the big problem I had with Enron yet,

但这仍然无法解决我对安然公司的疑问

because in Enron, there's also a social element.

因为在安然，还有一个社会性的元素

People see each other behaving.

人们眼见其他人的作为

In fact, every day when we open the news

事实上，每天我们看新闻

we see examples of people cheating.

都能看到人们作弊欺骗的例子

What does this cause us?

这怎么影响我们？

So, we did another experiment.

所以，我们又做了另一个实验

We got a big group of students to be in the experiment,

我们召来一大群学生来参加实验

and we prepaid them.

我们先付他们钱

So everybody got an envelope with all the money for the experiment,

所以每个人都先拿到装着实验回馈的信封

and we told them that at the end, we asked them

在结束时，我们请他们

to pay us back the money they didn't make. OK?

把没有赚到的钱还给我们

The same thing happens.

同样的事情发生了

When we give people the opportunity to cheat, they cheat.

当我们给人们作弊的机会，他们作弊了

They cheat just by a little bit, all the same.

他们只作了一点小弊，但都一样

But in this experiment we also hired an acting student.

但这次我们请来一位学生演员

This acting student stood up after 30 seconds, and said,

这个学生演员在三十秒后站起来，说

"I solved everything. What do I do now?"

“我解开所有题目了，现在呢？”

And the experimenter said, "If you've finished everything, go home.

实验者则回答”如果你做完所有题目了，就回去吧。“

That's it. The task is finished."

就这样。任务结束了。

So, now we had a student -- an acting student --

所以现在我们有了一个学生 - 一个演员

that was a part of the group.

在这组人中

Nobody knew it was an actor.

没有人知道他是个演员

And they clearly cheated in a very, very serious way.

只知道他明目张胆的作弊

What would happen to the other people in the group?

这会对在场的其他人有什么影响？

Will they cheat more, or will they cheat less?

他们会作更多的弊，或是相反？

Here is what happens.

事情是这样发生的。

It turns out it depends on what kind of sweatshirt they're wearing.

结果是，那取决于他们身上穿的衣服

Here is the thing.

因为

We ran this at Carnegie Mellon and Pittsburgh.

我们在卡内基梅隆和匹兹堡大学进行这次实验

And at Pittsburgh there are two big universities,

在匹兹堡有两家主要的大学

Carnegie Mellon and University of Pittsburgh.

卡内基梅隆和匹兹堡大学

All of the subjects sitting in the experiment

而我们的实验对象

were Carnegie Mellon students.

都是卡内基梅隆大学的学生

When the actor who was getting up was a Carnegie Mellon student --

当站起来的演员穿着卡内基梅隆的衣服

he was actually a Carnegie Mellon student --

他其实也是个卡内基梅隆的学生

but he was a part of their group, cheating went up.

也就是说他是团队中的一员，作弊的情况增加了

But when he actually had a University of Pittsburgh sweatshirt,

但当他穿着一件匹兹堡大学的外衣时

cheating went down.

作弊的情况便减少了

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, this is important, because remember,

这是很重要的一点，因为记住

when the moment the student stood up,

在这个学生站起来的那一刻

it made it clear to everybody that they could get away with cheating,

他对在场所有人证明作弊是可行的

because the experimenter said,

因为实验者说

"You've finished everything. Go home," and they went with the money.

”你做完所有题目了，回去吧。“他们就带着钱回去了

So it wasn't so much about the probability of being caught again.

所以这和被抓到的几率无关

It was about the norms for cheating.

而是一种作弊的典范

If somebody from our in-group cheats and we see them cheating,

如果在我们的团队中有人作弊，我们也看到他们作弊

we feel it's more appropriate, as a group, to behave this way.

我们便觉得那是适当的，身为一个团队，有这一样的态度

But if it's somebody from another group, these terrible people --

但如果是个外人，那些糟糕的人

I mean, not terrible in this --

不是说他们做题做的不好

but somebody we don't want to associate ourselves with,

而是那些我们不想被当成一丘之貉的人

from another university, another group,

那些其他学校的，其他团体的

all of a sudden people's awareness of honesty goes up --

突然人们的诚实和警觉性都提高了

a little bit like The Ten Commandments experiment --

有点类似之前的圣经十诫实验

and people cheat even less.

作弊的情况更加降低了。

So, what have we learned from this about cheating?

所以，我们究竟从这些实验中学到了什么？

We've learned that a lot of people can cheat.

我们知道许多人都会作弊

They cheat just by a little bit.

他们作一点点小弊

When we remind people about their morality, they cheat less.

当我们唤起人们的道德感，作弊的情况减少

When we get bigger distance from cheating,

当我们提高和作弊之中的距离

from the object of money, for example, people cheat more.

像是现金，作弊的情况便提高

And when we see cheating around us,

当我们看到身边的人作弊

particularly if it's a part of our in-group, cheating goes up.

尤其是我们的同侪，作弊的情况便提高

Now, if we think about this in terms of the stock market,

当我们想到股市的时候

think about what happens.

想到现在发生的事情

What happens in a situation when you create something

当你创造了这个环境

where you pay people a lot of money

你付他们很多的钱

to see reality in a slightly distorted way?

扭曲了他们对现实的看法？

Would they not be able to see it this way?

他们能不这么看吗？

Of course they would.

当然他们会这样做。

What happens when you do other things,

当你又做了一些其他的事情

like you remove things from money?

像是用一些东西代替现金？

You call them stock, or stock options, derivatives,

你叫他们股票，或是选择权，衍生商品

mortgage-backed securities.

按揭证券

Could it be that with those more distant things,

有没有可能因为这些东西听来遥远

it's not a token for one second,

它不只是一个几秒外的代币

it's something that is many steps removed from money

而是离现金有一段距离的象征物

for a much longer time -- could it be that people will cheat even more?

冠以更长的时间 - 人们是否会更容易作弊？

And what happens to the social environment

在今日的社会环境中，人们看到他人的行为时

when people see other people behave around them?

又会有什么影响和反应？

I think all of those forces worked in a very bad way

这全都是一些很不好的因素和影响

in the stock market.

在今日的股市中

More generally, I want to tell you something

我想泛泛地谈一些

about behavioral economics.

有关行为经济学的事

We have many intuitions in our life,

在人生中我们有许多直觉

and the point is that many of these intuitions are wrong.

却有许多是错误的

The question is, are we going to test those intuitions?

问题是，我们该去检视这些直觉吗？

We can think about how we're going to test this intuition

我们可以思考我们该如何去检视这些直觉

in our private life, in our business life,

从我们的私生活，我们的公事

and most particularly when it goes to policy,

特别是制定政策的时候

when we think about things like No Child Left Behind,

当我们想到一些像“一个都不能少”这种教育政策

when you create new stock markets, when you create other policies --

当你开发一些新的股票市场，当你制定一些新的政策

taxation, health care and so on.

税法，健康保险等

And the difficulty of testing our intuition

检测直觉是非常困难的

was the big lesson I learned

这是在我回去和这些护士谈话时

when I went back to the nurses to talk to them.

学到的一个教训。

So I went back to talk to them

我回到当初的医院

and tell them what I found out about removing bandages.

告诉他们对于撕开绷带方法的新发现

And I learned two interesting things.

我学到两件有趣的事

One was that my favorite nurse, Ettie,

一是我最喜欢的护士，Ettie

told me that I did not take her pain into consideration.

告诉我我并没有考虑到她的痛苦

She said, "Of course, you know, it was very painful for you.

她说“当然，那对你来说很痛苦

But think about me as a nurse,

但想想身为护士的我

taking, removing the bandages of somebody I liked,

要从一个我喜欢的人身上撕开这些绷带

and had to do it repeatedly over a long period of time.

并且要长期不断地重复这个动作

Creating so much torture was not something that was good for me, too."

我也不想为自己带来这么大的折磨，那也并不好受。”

And she said maybe part of the reason was it was difficult for her.

她说，或许对她来说如此困难是因为

But it was actually more interesting than that, because she said,

这实在非常有趣，因为她说

"I did not think that your intuition was right.

“我不觉得你的直觉是对的

I felt my intuition was correct."

我觉得我的直觉才是对的。”

So, if you think about all of your intuitions,

所以，当想到我们的那些直觉时

it's very hard to believe that your intuition is wrong.

要相信自己的直觉是错误的是非常困难的。

And she said, "Given the fact that I thought my intuition was right ..." --

她说，正因为我认为我的直觉是对的

she thought her intuition was right --

她也认为她的直觉是正确的

it was very difficult for her to accept doing a difficult experiment

她很难接受这样去做一个艰难的实验

to try and check whether she was wrong.

来证明她是对或错。

But in fact, this is the situation we're all in all the time.

但事实上，这正是我们每日面对的状况

We have very strong intuitions about all kinds of things --

对许多事我们都有很强的直觉

our own ability, how the economy works,

我们自己的能力，经济运作的方式

how we should pay school teachers.

我们应该付给学校老师多少薪水

But unless we start testing those intuitions,

但在我们真正开始去检测这些直觉前

we're not going to do better.

我们都不会有什么进步

And just think about how better my life would have been

只要想想如果那些护士能检测自己的直觉

if these nurses would have been willing to check their intuition,

我的人生会有多大的改善

and how everything would have been better

每件事又会有多大的改善

if we just start doing more systematic experimentation of our intuitions.

如果我们能开始有系统性地测验我们的直觉

Thank you very much.

非常谢谢各位。