Jason Pontin: Can technology solve our big problems?

Prevodilac: Vesna Savić Lektor: Mile Živković

So, we used to solve big problems.

Pre smo rešavali velike probleme.

On July 21st, 1969,

21. jula 1969. godine

Buzz Aldrin climbed out of Apollo 11's lunar module

Baz Oldrin se iskrcao iz lunarnog modula Apolo 11

and descended onto the Sea of Tranquility.

i kročio je na More spokoja.

Armstrong and Aldrin were alone,

Armstrong i Oldrin su bili sami

but their presence on the moon's gray surface

ali je njihovo prisustvo na mesečevom sivom tlu

was the culmination of a convulsive, collective effort.

bilo kulminacija teškog zajedničkog napora.

The Apollo program was the greatest

Program Apolo predstavljao je najveću

peacetime mobilization

mobilizaciju u mirnodopsko vreme

in the history of the United States.

u istoriji Sjedinjenih Država.

To get to the moon, NASA spent

Na odlazak na Mesec NASA je potrošila

around 180 billion dollars in today's money,

oko 180 milijardi današnjih dolara,

or four percent of the federal budget.

ili 4 procenta saveznog budžeta.

Apollo employed around 400,000 people

Na Apolu je radilo 400.000 ljudi

and demanded the collaboration of 20,000

i projekat je zahtevao saradnju 20.000

companies, universities and government agencies.

kompanija, univerziteta i vladinih organizacija.

People died, including the crew of Apollo 1.

Ljudi su umirali, uključujući i postavu Apola 1.

But before the Apollo program ended,

Ali pre završetka tog programa

24 men flew to the moon.

24 čoveka je otišlo na Mesec.

Twelve walked on its surface, of whom Aldrin,

Dvanaestorica su hodala po njegovoj površini, od kojih je,

following the death of Armstrong last year,

nakon Armstrongove smrti prošle godine,

is now the most senior.

sada najstariji Oldrin.

So why did they go?

A zašto su išli tamo?

They didn't bring much back:

Nisu mnogo doneli nazad:

841 pounds of old rocks,

381kg starog kamenja

and something all 24 later emphasized --

i nešto što su sva dvadesetčetvorica posle naglašavala -

a new sense of the smallness

novo shvatanje sićušnosti

and the fragility of our common home.

i krhkosti naše zajedničke rodne planete.

Why did they go? The cynical answer is they went

Zašto su išli tamo? Ciničan odgovor je da su išli

because President Kennedy wanted to show

zato što je predsednik Kenedi hteo da pokaže

the Soviets that his nation had the better rockets.

Sovjetima da njegova nacija ima bolje rakete.

But Kennedy's own words at Rice University in 1962

Ali, Kenedijeve reči na Univerzitetu Rajs 1962.

provide a better clue.

daju bolju sliku.

(Video) John F. Kennedy: But why, some say, the moon?

(Snimak) Kenedi: „A zašto, pitaju neki, na Mesec?

Why choose this as our goal?

Zašto da nam to bude cilj?

And they may well ask,

A mogu pitati i

why climb the highest mountain?

zašto se penjati na najvišu planinu?

Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?

Zašto pre 35 godina preletati Atlantik?

Why does Rice play Texas?

Zašto se takmičiti s teškim protivnicima?

We choose to go to the moon.

Mi biramo da idemo na Mesec.

We choose to go to the moon.

Mi biramo da idemo na Mesec.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

We choose to go to the moon in this decade,

Mi biramo da idemo na Mesec u ovoj deceniji

and do the other things,

i da radimo druge stvari

not because they are easy, but because they are hard.

ne zato što su lake, nego zato što su teške."

Jason Pontin: To contemporaries,

Džejson Pontin: Savremenicima

Apollo wasn't only a victory of West over East

Apolo nije bio samo pobeda Zapada nad Istokom

in the Cold War.

u Hladnom ratu.

At the time, the strongest emotion

U to vreme, najjača emocija

was of wonder

bila je čuđenje

at the transcendent powers of technology.

uzvišenoj moći tehnologije.

They went because it was a big thing to do.

Išli su tamo jer je to bila velika stvar.

Landing on the moon occurred in the context

Sletanje na Mesec desilo se kao posledica

of a long series of technological triumphs.

dugog niza velikih tehnoloških uspeha.

The first half of the 20th century produced

U prvoj polovini 20. veka stvoreni su

the assembly line and the airplane,

montažna traka i avion,

penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis.

penicilin i vakcina protiv tuberkuloze.

In the middle years of the century,

Sredinom prošlog veka,

polio was eradicated and smallpox eliminated.

dečja paraliza je iskorenjena, a male boginje uništene.

Technology itself seemed to possess

Činilo se da tehnologija poseduje

what Alvin Toffler in 1970

ono što je Alvin Tofler 1970. godine

called "accelerative thrust."

nazvao „ubrzani udar".

For most of human history,

Tokom čitave istorije

we could go no faster than a horse

nismo mogli da se krećemo brže od konja

or a boat with a sail,

ili broda s jedrima,

but in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10

ali 1969. godine, posada Apola 10

flew at 25,000 miles an hour.

letela je brzinom od 40.000 km/h.

Since 1970, no human beings

Posle 1970. godine nijedno ljudsko biće

have been back to the moon.

nije se vratilo na Mesec.

No one has traveled faster than the crew

Niko nije leteo brže od posade

of Apollo 10,

Apola 10,

and blithe optimism about technology's powers

i bezbrižni optimizam po pitanju moći tehnologije

has evaporated

ispario je,

as big problems we had imagined technology would solve,

kao što smo mislili da će i veliki problemi koje bi tehnologija rešila,

such as going to Mars,

kao što je odlazak na Mars,

creating clean energy, curing cancer,

stvaranje ekološke energije, lečenje raka,

or feeding the world have come to seem

ili prehranjivanje čovečanstva, počeli su da se čine

intractably hard.

užasno teškim.

I remember watching the liftoff of Apollo 17.

Sećam se da sam gledao lansiranje Apola 17.

I was five years old,

Imao sam 5 godina

and my mother told me not to stare

i majka mi je rekla da ne gledam

at the fiery exhaust of a Saturn V rocket.

u izduvne vatre rakete Saturn V.

I vaguely knew this was to be the last

Nisam ni znao da će to biti poslednja

of the moon missions,

misija na Mesec,

but I was absolutely certain there would be

ali sam bio potpuno siguran da će

Mars colonies in my lifetime.

za mog života na Marsu biti kolonije.

So "Something happened

I tako „nešto što se dogodilo

to our capacity to solve big problems with technology"

s našom sposobnošću da probleme rešavamo tehnologijom"

has become a commonplace.

postalo je banalnost.

You hear it all the time.

Stalno to čujete.

We've heard it over the last two days here at TED.

U prethodna dva dana smo to čuli ovde na TED-u.

It feels as if technologists have diverted us

Čini se kao da su nas tehnolozi odvratili,

and enriched themselves with trivial toys,

a sebe obogatili običnim igračkama,

with things like iPhones and apps and social media,

stvarima poput ajfona, aplikacija i društvenih mreža,

or algorithms that speed automated trading.

ili algoritama za ubrzavanje automatske trgovine.

There's nothing wrong with most of these things.

Nema ničeg lošeg u većini nabrojanih stvari.

They've expanded and enriched our lives.

Proširile su i obogatile naše živote.

But they don't solve humanity's big problems.

Ali, one ne rešavaju velike probleme čovečanstva.

What happened?

Šta se dogodilo?

So there is a parochial explanation in Silicon Valley,

U Silicijumskoj dolini postoji uskogrudo objašnjenje

which admits that it has been funding less ambitious companies

koje priznaje finansiranje manje ambicioznih firmi

than it did in the years when it financed

u odnosu na ranije godine kada su finansirali

Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Genentech.

Intel, Majkrosoft, Epl i Dženentek.

Silicon Valley says the markets are to blame,

Silicijumska dolina krivi tržište,

in particular the incentives that venture capitalists

konkretno, podsticaje koje potencijalni investitori

offer to entrepreneurs.

nude preduzetnicima.

Silicon Valley says that venture investing

Silicijumska dolina tvrdi da se potencijalno investiranje

shifted away from funding transformational ideas

pomerilo od finansiranja ideja koje transformišu

and towards funding incremental problems

ka finansiranju problema koji rastu,

or even fake problems.

ili čak lažnih problema.

But I don't think that explanation is good enough.

Ali ja ne smatram da je to objašnjenje dovoljno dobro.

It mostly explains what's wrong with Silicon Valley.

Ono uglavnom objašnjava šta nije u redu sa Silicijumskom dolinom.

Even when venture capitalists were at their most

Čak i kada su potencijalni investitori bili

risk-happy, they preferred small investments,

bez rizika, preferirali su manje investicije,

tiny investments that offered an exit within 10 years.

male investicije koje su nudile izlaz za 10 godina.

V.C.s have always struggled

Potencijalni investitori se oduvek bore da

to invest profitably in technologies such as energy

puno ulože u tehnologije poput energije,

whose capital requirements are huge

za šta su kapitalna ulaganja ogromna

and whose development is long and lengthy,

i čiji je razvoj dug i razvučen,

and V.C.s have never, never funded the development

a potencijalni investitori nikad, nikad nisu finansirali razvoj

of technologies meant to solve big problems

tehnologija koje bi rešavale velike probleme,

that possess no immediate commercial value.

i koje nemaju trenutnu komercijalnu vrednost.

No, the reasons we can't solve big problems

Ne, razlozi zbog kojih ne možemo da rešimo velike probleme

are more complicated and more profound.

mnogo su komplikovaniji i mnogo dublji.

Sometimes we choose not to solve big problems.

Nekada izaberemo da ne rešavamo velike probleme.

We could go to Mars if we want.

Mogli bismo da odemo na Mars kad bismo hteli.

NASA even has the outline of a plan.

NASA čak ima i nacrt projekta.

But going to Mars would follow a political decision

Ali, odlazak na Mars bi usledio nakon političke odluke

with popular appeal, and that will never happen.

s odobrenjem naroda, ali to se nikada neće desiti.

We won't go to Mars, because everyone thinks

Nećemo otići na Mars jer svi smatraju

there are more important things

da ima mnogo bitnijih stvari

to do here on Earth.

da se uradi ovde na Zemlji.

Sometimes, we can't solve big problems

Nekad ne možemo da rešimo velike probleme

because our political systems fail.

jer naš politički sistem ne radi dobro.

Today, less than two percent

Danas, manje od dva posto

of the world's energy consumption

svetske potrošnje električne struje

derives from advanced, renewable sources

stvara se iz naprednih, obnovljivih izvora,

such as solar, wind and biofuels,

kao što su sunce, vetar i biogoriva,

less than two percent,

manje od dva posto,

and the reason is purely economic.

a razlog tome je čisto ekonomski.

Coal and natural gas are cheaper

Ugalj i prirodni gas su jeftiniji izvor energije

than solar and wind,

od sunca i vetra,

and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels.

a nafta je jeftinija od biogoriva.

We want alternative energy sources

Mi želimo alternativne izvore energije,

that can compete on price. None exist.

koji se mogu takmičiti u ceni. Nema ih.

Now, technologists, business leaders

Tehnolozi, poslovni lideri

and economists all basically agree

i ekonomisti se u suštini slažu

on what national policies and international treaties

kako bi nacionalna politika i međunarodni ugovori

would spur the development of alternative energy:

trebalo da podstaknu razvoj alternativne energije:

mostly, a significant increase in energy

većinom, značajnim povećanjem

research and development,

energetskih istraživanja i razvoja

and some kind of price on carbon.

i neke vrste cene ugljenika.

But there's no hope in the present political climate

Ali nema nade da ćemo u sadašnjoj političkoj situaciji

that we will see U.S. energy policy

videti američku energetsku politiku

or international treaties that reflect that consensus.

ili međunarodne dogovore koji oslikavaju taj konsenzus.

Sometimes, big problems that had seemed technological

Ponekad se za velike probleme koji se čine tehničkim

turn out not to be so.

ispostavi da nisu takvi.

Famines were long understood to be caused

Uzrokom gladi se dugo smatrala

by failures in food supply.

nemogućnost snabdevanja hranom.

But 30 years of research have taught us

Ali tridesetogodišnja istraživanja naučila su nas

that famines are political crises

da je glad politička kriza

that catastrophically affect food distribution.

koja katastrofalno pogađa raspodelu hrane.

Technology can improve things like crop yields

Tehnologija može da unapredi stvari poput prinosa useva

or systems for storing and transporting food,

ili sistema skladištenja i transporta hrane,

but there will be famines so long as there are bad governments.

ali glad će postojati dokle god postoje loše vlade.

Finally, big problems sometimes elude solution

Konačno, čini se da veliki problemi nekad izbegavaju rešenja

because we don't really understand the problem.

jer mi taj problem istinski ne razumemo.

President Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971,

Predsednik Nikson je 1971. objavio rat raku

but we soon discovered

ali smo ubrzo otkrili da

there are many kinds of cancer,

postoji mnogo vrsta raka,

most of them fiendishly resistant to therapy,

od kojih je većina đavolski otporna na terapiju,

and it is only in the last 10 years

i tek su u poslednjih deset godina

that effective, viable therapies

efektivne terapije

have come to seem real.

postale realnost.

Hard problems are hard.

Teški problemi su teški.

It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology.

Nije tačno da ne možemo da rešimo velike probleme uz pomoć tehnologije.

We can, we must, but these four elements

Možemo, moramo, ali sva četiri elementa

must all be present:

moraju biti prisutna:

Political leaders and the public

političke vođe i javnost

must care to solve a problem;

moraju mariti za rešavanje problema;

institutions must support its solution;

institucije moraju podržati rešenje;

It must really be a technological problem;

problem zaista mora biti tehnološki;

and we must understand it.

i moramo ga razumeti.

The Apollo mission,

Misija Apolo,

which has become a kind of metaphor

koja je postala vrsta metafore

for technology's capacity to solve big problems,

za tehnološku sposobnost rešavanja velikih problema,

met these criteria.

zadovoljila je te kriterijume.

But it is an irreproducible model for the future.

Ali to je neizvodljiv model za budućnost.

It is not 1961.

Nije ovo 1961. godina.

There is no galvanizing contest like the Cold War,

Nema podsticajnog takmičenja poput Hladnog rata,

no politician like John Kennedy

niti političara poput Džona Kenedija

who can heroize the difficult and the dangerous,

koji će učiniti herojskim teškoću i opasnost,

and no popular science fictional mythology

nema ni popularne naučno fantastične mitologije

such as exploring the solar system.

poput istraživanja Sunčevog sistema.

Most of all, going to the moon

A povrh svega, odlazak na Mesec

turned out to be easy.

ispostavio se kao laka stvar.

It was just three days away.

Bio je udaljen samo tri dana.

And arguably it wasn't even solving

I verovatno to čak nije ni bilo rešavanje

much of a problem.

nekog teškog problema.

We are left alone with our day,

Ostali smo sami danas,

and the solutions of the future will be harder won.

a rešenja za budućnost će se teže otkrivati.

God knows, we don't lack for the challenges.

Bog zna da nam ne fali izazova.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam lepo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)