Jason Pontin: Can technology solve our big problems?

翻译人员: Zhi Yin Wang 校对人员: Ho Man Li

So, we used to solve big problems.

我们曾经解决过一些大问题

On July 21st, 1969,

1969年7月21日

Buzz Aldrin climbed out of Apollo 11's lunar module

巴兹•奥尔德林从阿波罗11号的登月舱里爬了出来

and descended onto the Sea of Tranquility.

踏上了宁静海 (人类首次登上月球的区域）

Armstrong and Aldrin were alone,

当时只有阿姆斯特朗和奥尔特林二人

but their presence on the moon's gray surface

但他们在月球上的出现

was the culmination of a convulsive, collective effort.

是一系列呕心沥血努力的成果

The Apollo program was the greatest

阿波罗计划是美国历史上

peacetime mobilization

在和平时期的

in the history of the United States.

最大的一次动员

To get to the moon, NASA spent

为了登上月球，美国航空航天局

around 180 billion dollars in today's money,

花掉了相当于今天1800亿美元的资金

or four percent of the federal budget.

是当时4%的联邦预算

Apollo employed around 400,000 people

阿波罗雇佣了40万雇员

and demanded the collaboration of 20,000

集合了2万家公司

companies, universities and government agencies.

大学和政府部门

People died, including the crew of Apollo 1.

有人牺牲了，包括阿波罗1号的船员

But before the Apollo program ended,

在阿波罗计划结束之前

24 men flew to the moon.

24个人飞向过月球

Twelve walked on its surface, of whom Aldrin,

12个人曾踏上月球表面

following the death of Armstrong last year,

奥尔德林在阿姆斯特朗去年去世以后

is now the most senior.

成为了他们中年龄最大的一位

So why did they go?

那他们为什么要去月球？

They didn't bring much back:

他们并没有带很多东西回来

841 pounds of old rocks,

841磅的古老岩石

and something all 24 later emphasized --

和24位宇航员之后共同强调的

a new sense of the smallness

对我们共同家园地球的渺小

and the fragility of our common home.

和脆弱的认知

Why did they go? The cynical answer is they went

他们为什么要去？一个愤世嫉俗的答案是

because President Kennedy wanted to show

因为肯尼迪总统要证明他们拥有

the Soviets that his nation had the better rockets.

比苏联更好的火箭

But Kennedy's own words at Rice University in 1962

但是肯尼迪1962年在莱斯大学的演说

provide a better clue.

提供了更好的线索

(Video) John F. Kennedy: But why, some say, the moon?

（影片）肯尼迪：为什么？ 有人问为什么是月球？

Why choose this as our goal?

为什么会选择它作为目标？

And they may well ask,

他们同样会问

why climb the highest mountain?

为什么要登上最高的山峰？

Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?

为什么，35年前要飞跃过大西洋？

Why does Rice play Texas?

为什么莱斯要同德克萨斯比赛（指大学橄榄球赛)?

We choose to go to the moon.

讲者：我们选择月球

We choose to go to the moon.

我们选择登上月球

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

We choose to go to the moon in this decade,

我们选择在这个十年登上月球

and do the other things,

以及一些其他的事情

not because they are easy, but because they are hard.

不是因为它们容易，而是因为它们困难。

Jason Pontin: To contemporaries,

在当时

Apollo wasn't only a victory of West over East

阿波罗计划不仅仅是西方对东方的

in the Cold War.

冷战胜利

At the time, the strongest emotion

在当时，最强烈的情绪

was of wonder

是惊讶于

at the transcendent powers of technology.

科技的无穷力量

They went because it was a big thing to do.

他们去了是因为这是一件大事

Landing on the moon occurred in the context

登陆月球只是一连串

of a long series of technological triumphs.

科技大胜利中的一件事

The first half of the 20th century produced

前半个20世纪制造出了

the assembly line and the airplane,

生产线，飞机，

penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis.

盘尼西林和结核病疫苗

In the middle years of the century,

在这一世纪的中期

polio was eradicated and smallpox eliminated.

小儿麻痹症和天花彻底消失

Technology itself seemed to possess

科技本身似乎拥有

what Alvin Toffler in 1970

阿尔文•托夫勒在1970年说的

called "accelerative thrust."

“加速推力”

For most of human history,

在绝大部分的人类历史中

we could go no faster than a horse

我们都无法比马

or a boat with a sail,

或帆船更快

but in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10

但在1969年，阿波罗的10名船员们的

flew at 25,000 miles an hour.

飞行速度是每小时25000英里

Since 1970, no human beings

1970年以后

have been back to the moon.

再也没有人类回到过月球

No one has traveled faster than the crew

没有人再比阿波罗10号的船员

of Apollo 10,

更快

and blithe optimism about technology's powers

对于科技力量的乐观

has evaporated

已消失殆尽

as big problems we had imagined technology would solve,

而那些我们曾寄望于科技解决的大问题

such as going to Mars,

例如前往火星

creating clean energy, curing cancer,

创造干净的能源，治愈癌症

or feeding the world have come to seem

甚至养活全世界都变得

intractably hard.

非常棘手困难

I remember watching the liftoff of Apollo 17.

我仍记得收看阿波罗17号升空的场面

I was five years old,

我当时5岁

and my mother told me not to stare

妈妈告诉我不要盯着

at the fiery exhaust of a Saturn V rocket.

土星五号燃烧着的推进器

I vaguely knew this was to be the last

我模糊地知道这是最后一次

of the moon missions,

月球计划

but I was absolutely certain there would be

但是我确信在我的有生之年

Mars colonies in my lifetime.

火星殖民地将出现

So "Something happened

所以，“科技力量解决大问题

to our capacity to solve big problems with technology"

的能力出现了问题”这一观点

has become a commonplace.

变得司空见惯

You hear it all the time.

你常常能听到

We've heard it over the last two days here at TED.

我们在TED的过去两天里就听到过

It feels as if technologists have diverted us

感觉科技取悦我们丰富自己

and enriched themselves with trivial toys,

通过的是一些无足轻重的玩具

with things like iPhones and apps and social media,

像是iPhone，Apps和社交网络

or algorithms that speed automated trading.

或是加速自动交易的算法

There's nothing wrong with most of these things.

这些事情并没有什么错

They've expanded and enriched our lives.

他们延伸並丰富了我们的生活

But they don't solve humanity's big problems.

但是他们不能解决人类的大问题

What happened?

发生了什么？

So there is a parochial explanation in Silicon Valley,

在硅谷有一个狭隘的解释

which admits that it has been funding less ambitious companies

他们承认，有野心的公司募得的资金更少了

than it did in the years when it financed

相比于早些年的

Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Genentech.

英特尔，微软，苹果和基因泰克

Silicon Valley says the markets are to blame,

硅谷说，市场是罪魁祸首

in particular the incentives that venture capitalists

特别是风险投资家提供给

offer to entrepreneurs.

企业家的奖励

Silicon Valley says that venture investing

硅谷说风投资金的投资方向

shifted away from funding transformational ideas

由彻底变革型类的想法

and towards funding incremental problems

转移到了能够逐步解决的问题

or even fake problems.

甚至是虚假的问题上

But I don't think that explanation is good enough.

不过我不认为这样的解释就够了

It mostly explains what's wrong with Silicon Valley.

它只是解释了硅谷的问题

Even when venture capitalists were at their most

哪怕当风投家们在他们最能承受风险的时候

risk-happy, they preferred small investments,

他们也是更愿意做小型的投资

tiny investments that offered an exit within 10 years.

有可能在十年内退出的微小投资

V.C.s have always struggled

风投资本在科技上的投资

to invest profitably in technologies such as energy

总是难以获得回报

whose capital requirements are huge

例如是需要大量投资

and whose development is long and lengthy,

和长期发展过程的能源行业

and V.C.s have never, never funded the development

风投资本也从来没有

of technologies meant to solve big problems

投资过能够解决

that possess no immediate commercial value.

没有即时商业价值的大问题

No, the reasons we can't solve big problems

不，我们不能解决大问题的原因

are more complicated and more profound.

更加的复杂和深层次

Sometimes we choose not to solve big problems.

有时候我们选择不去解决一些大问题

We could go to Mars if we want.

如果我们愿意，我们可以去火星

NASA even has the outline of a plan.

NASA甚至有了一个计划大纲

But going to Mars would follow a political decision

但去火星需要一个由民众诉求产生的政治决策

with popular appeal, and that will never happen.

但那永远也不会发生

We won't go to Mars, because everyone thinks

我们不去火星，因为每个人都认为

there are more important things

在地球上我们有

to do here on Earth.

更重要的事情要做

Sometimes, we can't solve big problems

有时候，我们无法解决一些大问题

because our political systems fail.

是因为政治系统的失败

Today, less than two percent

如今，少于2%的

of the world's energy consumption

能源消耗

derives from advanced, renewable sources

来自于先进的，可再生的能源

such as solar, wind and biofuels,

例如太阳能，风能和生物能源

less than two percent,

少于百分之二

and the reason is purely economic.

这纯粹是经济问题

Coal and natural gas are cheaper

煤炭和天然气比太阳能

than solar and wind,

和风能更便宜

and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels.

石油比生物燃料便宜

We want alternative energy sources

我们需要的在价格上

that can compete on price. None exist.

拥有竞争力的替代能源，并不存在

Now, technologists, business leaders

现在，科技人员，商业领袖

and economists all basically agree

和经济学家基本都同意

on what national policies and international treaties

国家政策和国际条约

would spur the development of alternative energy:

将可以刺激替代能源的发展

mostly, a significant increase in energy

通过显著增加新能源的

research and development,

研究和发展

and some kind of price on carbon.

和对碳排放的征税

But there's no hope in the present political climate

但在现今的政治气候下

that we will see U.S. energy policy

没望可以看到美国的能源政策

or international treaties that reflect that consensus.

和国际条约能够反映这一共识

Sometimes, big problems that had seemed technological

有些时候，那些看起来是科技上的大问题

turn out not to be so.

其实却不是

Famines were long understood to be caused

饥荒长期以来被认为是

by failures in food supply.

食物短缺造成的

But 30 years of research have taught us

但通过30年的研究发现

that famines are political crises

饥荒是由于政治危机

that catastrophically affect food distribution.

灾难性地影响了食物分配造成的

Technology can improve things like crop yields

科技可以增加作物产量

or systems for storing and transporting food,

或帮助食物的储存和运输

but there will be famines so long as there are bad governments.

但是有糟糕的政府就会有饥荒

Finally, big problems sometimes elude solution

最后，一些大问题会被逃避解决

because we don't really understand the problem.

因为人们不了解这些问题

President Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971,

尼克松总统在1971年对癌症宣战

but we soon discovered

但我们很快发现

there are many kinds of cancer,

有太多种的癌症

most of them fiendishly resistant to therapy,

大多数如恶魔般难以治疗

and it is only in the last 10 years

直到过去十年

that effective, viable therapies

有效可行的治疗方法

have come to seem real.

才开始出现

Hard problems are hard.

困难的问题就是很难解决

It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology.

这不代表科技无法解决大问题

We can, we must, but these four elements

我们可以，但以下四个要素

must all be present:

要同时满足

Political leaders and the public

政治领袖和群众

must care to solve a problem;

必须关心解决这个问题

institutions must support its solution;

必须有机构支持其解决方案

It must really be a technological problem;

其必须是技术上的问题

and we must understand it.

我们必须了解它

The Apollo mission,

阿波罗计划

which has become a kind of metaphor

已经成为科技能够

for technology's capacity to solve big problems,

解决大问题的象征

met these criteria.

便符合这些要素

But it is an irreproducible model for the future.

但这是一个不可复制的案例

It is not 1961.

现在已经不是1961年

There is no galvanizing contest like the Cold War,

已经没有冷战中的军备竞赛

no politician like John Kennedy

已经没有肯尼迪这样的政治家

who can heroize the difficult and the dangerous,

会给困难和危险披上英雄主义色彩

and no popular science fictional mythology

没有流行的科幻神话

such as exploring the solar system.

例如探索太阳系

Most of all, going to the moon

最重要的是，去月球

turned out to be easy.

已经变得容易

It was just three days away.

路上只需要三天而已

And arguably it wasn't even solving

而且有争议地说，这其实

much of a problem.

也没解决什么问题

We are left alone with our day,

我们继续着我们的生活

and the solutions of the future will be harder won.

而未来的问题将更难解决

God knows, we don't lack for the challenges.

谁知道呢，我们并不缺少挑战

Thank you very much.

谢谢

(Applause)

（鼓掌）