Jason Pontin: Can technology solve our big problems?

182,666 views ・ 2013-10-04

TED


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So, we used to solve big problems.
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On July 21st, 1969,
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Buzz Aldrin climbed out of Apollo 11's lunar module
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and descended onto the Sea of Tranquility.
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Armstrong and Aldrin were alone,
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but their presence on the moon's gray surface
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was the culmination of a convulsive, collective effort.
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The Apollo program was the greatest
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peacetime mobilization
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in the history of the United States.
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To get to the moon, NASA spent
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around 180 billion dollars in today's money,
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or four percent of the federal budget.
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Apollo employed around 400,000 people
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and demanded the collaboration of 20,000
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companies, universities and government agencies.
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People died, including the crew of Apollo 1.
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But before the Apollo program ended,
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24 men flew to the moon.
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Twelve walked on its surface, of whom Aldrin,
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following the death of Armstrong last year,
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is now the most senior.
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So why did they go?
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They didn't bring much back:
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841 pounds of old rocks,
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and something all 24 later emphasized --
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a new sense of the smallness
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and the fragility of our common home.
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Why did they go? The cynical answer is they went
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because President Kennedy wanted to show
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the Soviets that his nation had the better rockets.
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But Kennedy's own words at Rice University in 1962
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provide a better clue.
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(Video) John F. Kennedy: But why, some say, the moon?
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Why choose this as our goal?
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And they may well ask,
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why climb the highest mountain?
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Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?
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Why does Rice play Texas?
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We choose to go to the moon.
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We choose to go to the moon.
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(Applause)
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We choose to go to the moon in this decade,
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and do the other things,
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not because they are easy, but because they are hard.
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Jason Pontin: To contemporaries,
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Apollo wasn't only a victory of West over East
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in the Cold War.
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At the time, the strongest emotion
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was of wonder
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at the transcendent powers of technology.
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They went because it was a big thing to do.
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Landing on the moon occurred in the context
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of a long series of technological triumphs.
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The first half of the 20th century produced
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the assembly line and the airplane,
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penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis.
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In the middle years of the century,
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polio was eradicated and smallpox eliminated.
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Technology itself seemed to possess
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what Alvin Toffler in 1970
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called "accelerative thrust."
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For most of human history,
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we could go no faster than a horse
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or a boat with a sail,
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but in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10
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flew at 25,000 miles an hour.
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Since 1970, no human beings
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have been back to the moon.
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No one has traveled faster than the crew
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of Apollo 10,
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and blithe optimism about technology's powers
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has evaporated
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as big problems we had imagined technology would solve,
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such as going to Mars,
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creating clean energy, curing cancer,
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or feeding the world have come to seem
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intractably hard.
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I remember watching the liftoff of Apollo 17.
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I was five years old,
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and my mother told me not to stare
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at the fiery exhaust of a Saturn V rocket.
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I vaguely knew this was to be the last
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of the moon missions,
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but I was absolutely certain there would be
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Mars colonies in my lifetime.
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So "Something happened
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to our capacity to solve big problems with technology"
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has become a commonplace.
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You hear it all the time.
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We've heard it over the last two days here at TED.
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It feels as if technologists have diverted us
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and enriched themselves with trivial toys,
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with things like iPhones and apps and social media,
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or algorithms that speed automated trading.
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There's nothing wrong with most of these things.
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They've expanded and enriched our lives.
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But they don't solve humanity's big problems.
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What happened?
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So there is a parochial explanation in Silicon Valley,
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which admits that it has been funding less ambitious companies
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than it did in the years when it financed
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Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Genentech.
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Silicon Valley says the markets are to blame,
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in particular the incentives that venture capitalists
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offer to entrepreneurs.
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Silicon Valley says that venture investing
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shifted away from funding transformational ideas
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and towards funding incremental problems
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or even fake problems.
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But I don't think that explanation is good enough.
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It mostly explains what's wrong with Silicon Valley.
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Even when venture capitalists were at their most
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risk-happy, they preferred small investments,
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tiny investments that offered an exit within 10 years.
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V.C.s have always struggled
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to invest profitably in technologies such as energy
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whose capital requirements are huge
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and whose development is long and lengthy,
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and V.C.s have never, never funded the development
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of technologies meant to solve big problems
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that possess no immediate commercial value.
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No, the reasons we can't solve big problems
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are more complicated and more profound.
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Sometimes we choose not to solve big problems.
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We could go to Mars if we want.
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NASA even has the outline of a plan.
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But going to Mars would follow a political decision
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with popular appeal, and that will never happen.
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We won't go to Mars, because everyone thinks
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there are more important things
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to do here on Earth.
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Sometimes, we can't solve big problems
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because our political systems fail.
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Today, less than two percent
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of the world's energy consumption
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derives from advanced, renewable sources
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such as solar, wind and biofuels,
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less than two percent,
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and the reason is purely economic.
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Coal and natural gas are cheaper
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than solar and wind,
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and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels.
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We want alternative energy sources
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that can compete on price. None exist.
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Now, technologists, business leaders
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and economists all basically agree
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on what national policies and international treaties
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would spur the development of alternative energy:
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mostly, a significant increase in energy
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research and development,
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and some kind of price on carbon.
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But there's no hope in the present political climate
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that we will see U.S. energy policy
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or international treaties that reflect that consensus.
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Sometimes, big problems that had seemed technological
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turn out not to be so.
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Famines were long understood to be caused
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by failures in food supply.
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But 30 years of research have taught us
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that famines are political crises
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that catastrophically affect food distribution.
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Technology can improve things like crop yields
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or systems for storing and transporting food,
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but there will be famines so long as there are bad governments.
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Finally, big problems sometimes elude solution
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because we don't really understand the problem.
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President Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971,
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but we soon discovered
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there are many kinds of cancer,
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most of them fiendishly resistant to therapy,
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and it is only in the last 10 years
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that effective, viable therapies
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have come to seem real.
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Hard problems are hard.
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It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology.
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We can, we must, but these four elements
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must all be present:
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Political leaders and the public
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must care to solve a problem;
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institutions must support its solution;
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It must really be a technological problem;
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and we must understand it.
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The Apollo mission,
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which has become a kind of metaphor
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for technology's capacity to solve big problems,
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met these criteria.
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But it is an irreproducible model for the future.
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It is not 1961.
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There is no galvanizing contest like the Cold War,
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no politician like John Kennedy
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who can heroize the difficult and the dangerous,
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and no popular science fictional mythology
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such as exploring the solar system.
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Most of all, going to the moon
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turned out to be easy.
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It was just three days away.
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And arguably it wasn't even solving
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much of a problem.
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We are left alone with our day,
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and the solutions of the future will be harder won.
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God knows, we don't lack for the challenges.
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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