Jason Pontin: Can technology solve our big problems?

Translator: Alen Napotnik Reviewer: Miha Helbl

So, we used to solve big problems.

Torej, nekoč smo reševali velike probleme.

On July 21st, 1969,

21. julija 1969

Buzz Aldrin climbed out of Apollo 11's lunar module

je Buzz Aldrin splezal iz lunarnega modula Apolla 11

and descended onto the Sea of Tranquility.

in se spustil na Morje spokojnosti.

Armstrong and Aldrin were alone,

Armstrong in Aldrin sta bila sama,

but their presence on the moon's gray surface

ampak njuna prisotnost na luninem sivem površju

was the culmination of a convulsive, collective effort.

je bila višek zahtevnega in skupnega truda.

The Apollo program was the greatest

Apollo program je bila najpomembnejša

peacetime mobilization

mirna mobilizacija

in the history of the United States.

v zgodovini Združenih držav.

To get to the moon, NASA spent

Da bi prišla na luno, je NASA porabila

around 180 billion dollars in today's money,

okoli 180 milijard današnjih dolarjev

or four percent of the federal budget.

oz. štiri odstotke državnega proračuna.

Apollo employed around 400,000 people

Apollo je zaposlil okoli 400.000 ljudi

and demanded the collaboration of 20,000

in zahteval sodelovanje 20.000

companies, universities and government agencies.

podjetij, univerz in državnih agencij.

People died, including the crew of Apollo 1.

Ljudje so umirali, vključno z ekipo Apolla 1.

But before the Apollo program ended,

Ampak preden se je Apollo program končal,

24 men flew to the moon.

je 24 ljudi poletelo do lune.

Twelve walked on its surface, of whom Aldrin,

12 jih je hodilo po njenem površju, izmed katerih je Aldrin,

following the death of Armstrong last year,

po Armstrongovi smrti lansko leto,

is now the most senior.

sedaj najstarejši.

So why did they go?

Torej, zakaj so sploh šli?

They didn't bring much back:

Nazaj niso prinesli veliko stvari:

841 pounds of old rocks,

381 kg starih kamnin

and something all 24 later emphasized --

in nekaj, kar so vsi kasneje poudarjali --

a new sense of the smallness

nov občutek majhnosti

and the fragility of our common home.

in krhkost našega doma.

Why did they go? The cynical answer is they went

Zakaj so šli? Posmehljiv odgovor je, da so šli,

because President Kennedy wanted to show

ker je predsednik Kennedy hotel pokazati

the Soviets that his nation had the better rockets.

Sovjetom, da je njegova država imela boljše rakete.

But Kennedy's own words at Rice University in 1962

Vendar Kennedyjev govor na Riceovi Univerzi leta 1962

provide a better clue.

podaja boljši namig.

(Video) John F. Kennedy: But why, some say, the moon?

"Zakaj luna", se marsikdo sprašuje.

Why choose this as our goal?

Zakaj naj bo to naš cilj?

And they may well ask,

Potemtakem se lahko vprašajo,

why climb the highest mountain?

zakaj splezati na najvišjo goro?

Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?

Zakaj, pred 35 leti, preleteti Atlantik?

Why does Rice play Texas?

Zakaj Rice igra za Texas?

We choose to go to the moon.

Odločimo se, da gremo na luno.

We choose to go to the moon.

Odločimo se, da gremo na luno.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

We choose to go to the moon in this decade,

Odločimo se, da gremo na luno v tem desetletju

and do the other things,

in da storimo druge stvari,

not because they are easy, but because they are hard.

ne ker so lahke, ampak ker so težke.

Jason Pontin: To contemporaries,

Za sodobnike

Apollo wasn't only a victory of West over East

Apollo ni bil le zmaga zahoda nad vzhodom

in the Cold War.

v Hladni vojni.

At the time, the strongest emotion

Takrat je bilo najmočnejše čustvo

was of wonder

začudenje

at the transcendent powers of technology.

nad izjemnimi močmi tehnologije.

They went because it was a big thing to do.

Šli so, ker bi bil to velik dosežek.

Landing on the moon occurred in the context

Pristanek na luni se je zgodil v okviru

of a long series of technological triumphs.

dolgega niza tehnoloških zmagoslavij.

The first half of the 20th century produced

Prva polovica 20. stoletja je proizvedla

the assembly line and the airplane,

tekoči trak in letalo,

penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis.

penicilin ter cepivo proti tuberkulozi.

In the middle years of the century,

V srednjih letih stoletja

polio was eradicated and smallpox eliminated.

sta bili izkoreninjeni otroška paraliza in črne koze.

Technology itself seemed to possess

Zdelo se je, da tehnologija poseduje,

what Alvin Toffler in 1970

kar je Alvin Toffler leta 1970

called "accelerative thrust."

imenoval pospešen sunek.

For most of human history,

Večino človeške zgodovine

we could go no faster than a horse

nismo mogli potovati hitreje od konja

or a boat with a sail,

ali ladje z jadrom,

but in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10

ampak leta 1969 je posadka Apolla 10

flew at 25,000 miles an hour.

letela s hitrostjo 40 tisoč km/h.

Since 1970, no human beings

Od leta 1970 se nihče

have been back to the moon.

ni vrnil na luno.

No one has traveled faster than the crew

Nihče ni potoval hitreje

od posadke Apolla 10.

of Apollo 10,

and blithe optimism about technology's powers

In velik optimizem o močeh tehnologije

has evaporated

je izparel,

as big problems we had imagined technology would solve,

saj so se problemi, ki smo si jih zastavili,

such as going to Mars,

kot so odprava na Mars,

creating clean energy, curing cancer,

čista energija, ozdravljenje raka

or feeding the world have come to seem

ali odprava lakote, začeli zdeti

intractably hard.

neobvladljivo težki.

I remember watching the liftoff of Apollo 17.

Spomnim se gledanja vzleta Apolla 17.

I was five years old,

Imel sem pet let

and my mother told me not to stare

in mama mi je rekla, da ne smem strmeti

at the fiery exhaust of a Saturn V rocket.

v ognjen izpuh rakete.

I vaguely knew this was to be the last

Čeprav sem vedel, da je bila to zadnja

of the moon missions,

lunina misija,

but I was absolutely certain there would be

sem bil prepričan,

Mars colonies in my lifetime.

da bodo kolonije na Marsu še v času mojega življenja.

So "Something happened

Torej, nekaj se je zgodilo

to our capacity to solve big problems with technology"

našim sposobnostim reševanja

has become a commonplace.

velikih problemov s tehnologijo.

You hear it all the time.

To slišimo ves čas.

We've heard it over the last two days here at TED.

Tudi zadnja dva dni, tukaj pri TED-u.

It feels as if technologists have diverted us

Zdi se kot, da so nas tehnologi zamotili

and enriched themselves with trivial toys,

z nepomembnimi igračami,

with things like iPhones and apps and social media,

kot so pametni telefoni in socialna omrežja

or algorithms that speed automated trading.

ali algoritmi, ki pospešijo avtomatsko trgovanje.

There's nothing wrong with most of these things.

S tem ni nič narobe.

They've expanded and enriched our lives.

Naša življenja so razširili in obogatili.

But they don't solve humanity's big problems.

Ampak ne rešujejo večjih človeških problemov.

What happened?

Kaj se je zgodilo?

So there is a parochial explanation in Silicon Valley,

Obstaja ozkogleda razlaga Silicijeve doline,

which admits that it has been funding less ambitious companies

ki priznava, da financira manj ambiciozna podjetja

than it did in the years when it financed

kot v letih, ko je financirala

Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Genentech.

Intel, Microsoft, Apple in Genentech.

Silicon Valley says the markets are to blame,

Trdi, da so krivi trgi,

in particular the incentives that venture capitalists

posebej ponudbe, ki jih naložbeni kapitalisti

offer to entrepreneurs.

ponujajo podjetnikom.

Silicon Valley says that venture investing

Pravi, da se je tvegano vlaganje

shifted away from funding transformational ideas

preusmerilo stran od preobrazbenih idej

and towards funding incremental problems

in začelo nagibati k financiranju postopnih

or even fake problems.

ali celo lažnih problemov.

But I don't think that explanation is good enough.

Menim, da ta razlaga ni dovolj dobra.

It mostly explains what's wrong with Silicon Valley.

Razloži le, kaj je narobe s Silicijevo dolino.

Even when venture capitalists were at their most

Tudi ko tvegani kapital ni bil ogrožen,

risk-happy, they preferred small investments,

so kapitalisti raje vlagali v manjše naložbe,

tiny investments that offered an exit within 10 years.

ki so ponujale rešitev v roku desetih let.

V.C.s have always struggled

Pri vlaganju v tehnologije, kot je energija,

to invest profitably in technologies such as energy

je bila ovira vedno dobiček,

whose capital requirements are huge

saj takšen kapital zahteva veliko,

and whose development is long and lengthy,

njegov razvoj pa je zelo dolg.

and V.C.s have never, never funded the development

Zato kapitalisti niso nikoli financirali razvoja tehnologij,

of technologies meant to solve big problems

namenjenih reševanju velikih problemov,

that possess no immediate commercial value.

ki nimajo takojšnega trgovskega pomena.

No, the reasons we can't solve big problems

Dejanski razlogi so veliko bolj zapleteni in temeljiti.

are more complicated and more profound.

Sometimes we choose not to solve big problems.

Včasih se za te stvari odločimo sami.

We could go to Mars if we want.

Lahko bi šli na Mars, če bi hoteli.

NASA even has the outline of a plan.

NASA ima celo povzetek načrta.

But going to Mars would follow a political decision

Ampak to bi morala biti priljubljena politična odločitev,

with popular appeal, and that will never happen.

kar se ne bo nikoli zgodilo.

We won't go to Mars, because everyone thinks

Ne bomo šli na Mars, ker vsi menijo,

there are more important things

da so pomembnejše stvari tu na Zemlji.

to do here on Earth.

Sometimes, we can't solve big problems

Včasih je razlog neuspeh

because our political systems fail.

naših političnih sistemov.

Today, less than two percent

Danes sta manj kot dva odstotka

of the world's energy consumption

svetovne porabe energije

derives from advanced, renewable sources

pridobljena iz naprednih, obnovljivih virov,

such as solar, wind and biofuels,

kot so sonce, veter in biogoriva.

less than two percent,

Manj kot dva odstotka --

and the reason is purely economic.

razlog pa je povsem gospodarski.

Coal and natural gas are cheaper

Premog in naravni plini so cenejši

than solar and wind,

od sončne in vetrne energije,

and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels.

nafta pa je cenejša od biogoriv.

We want alternative energy sources

Hočemo alternativne vire energije,

that can compete on price. None exist.

ki lahko tekmujejo na ceni. -- Ne obstajajo.

Now, technologists, business leaders

Tehnologi, podjetniki in ekonomisti

and economists all basically agree

se strinjajo o učinku,

on what national policies and international treaties

ki bi ga državni programi in mednarodni sporazumi

would spur the development of alternative energy:

imeli na razvoju alternativnih energij:

mostly, a significant increase in energy

predvsem na visok napredek energijskih

research and development,

raziskav in njihov razvoj

and some kind of price on carbon.

ter na ceno ogljika.

But there's no hope in the present political climate

Vendar, glede na trenutne politične razmere ni upanja,

that we will see U.S. energy policy

da bomo videli energijski program v ZDA

or international treaties that reflect that consensus.

ali druge podobne mednarodne sporazume.

Sometimes, big problems that had seemed technological

Včasih se "tehnološki problemi"

turn out not to be so.

izkažejo za netehnološke.

Famines were long understood to be caused

Včasih smo menili, da je lakota posledica

by failures in food supply.

nezadostne zaloge hrane.

But 30 years of research have taught us

V zadnjih 30-ih letih pa so raziskave pokazale,

that famines are political crises

da je lakota odraz političnih kriz,

that catastrophically affect food distribution.

ki katastrofalno vplivajo na porazdelitev hrane.

Technology can improve things like crop yields

Tehnologija lahko izboljša poljske pridelke

or systems for storing and transporting food,

ali sisteme za shranjevanje in transport hrane,

but there will be famines so long as there are bad governments.

ampak dokler so slabe vlade, bo lakota obstajala.

Finally, big problems sometimes elude solution

Končno, veliki problemi se včasih izmaknejo rešitvi,

because we don't really understand the problem.

ker jih ne razumemo dovolj dobro.

President Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971,

Predsednik Nixon je leta 1971 napovedal vojno proti raku.

but we soon discovered

Kmalu pa smo ugotovili,

there are many kinds of cancer,

da obstaja več vrst raka,

most of them fiendishly resistant to therapy,

večina odpornih na terapijo.

and it is only in the last 10 years

Le v zadnjih desetih letih

that effective, viable therapies

so začele nastajati

have come to seem real.

učinkovite in izvedljive terapije.

Hard problems are hard.

Težki problemi so težki.

It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology.

Ni res, da jih ne moremo reševati s tehnologijo.

We can, we must, but these four elements

Lahko in moramo jih, vendar morajo

must all be present:

biti prisotni vsi štirje elementi:

Political leaders and the public

politični voditelji in javnost

must care to solve a problem;

si morajo želeti rešitve,

institutions must support its solution;

ustanove morajo to rešitev podpirati,

It must really be a technological problem;

res mora biti tehnološki problem

and we must understand it.

in moramo ga razumeti.

The Apollo mission,

Misija Apollo,

which has become a kind of metaphor

ki je postala nekakšna metafora

for technology's capacity to solve big problems,

za tehnološko sposobnost,

met these criteria.

je zajemala ta merila.

But it is an irreproducible model for the future.

Ampak to je neponovljiv model za prihodnost.

It is not 1961.

Ni leto 1961.

There is no galvanizing contest like the Cold War,

Ni tekmovanja, kot je Hladna vojna,

no politician like John Kennedy

ni politika, kot je John Kennedy,

who can heroize the difficult and the dangerous,

ki lahko uresniči težke in nevarne stvari

and no popular science fictional mythology

in ni priljubljene znanstvene mitologije,

such as exploring the solar system.

kot je raziskovanje sončnega sistema.

Most of all, going to the moon

Odprava na luno se je izkazala za lahko.

turned out to be easy.

It was just three days away.

Oddaljena je bila le tri dni

And arguably it wasn't even solving

in naj niti ne bi predstavljala

much of a problem.

velikega problema.

We are left alone with our day,

Zapuščeni smo samemu sebi

and the solutions of the future will be harder won.

in rešitve bodo v prihodnosti težje pridobljene.

God knows, we don't lack for the challenges.

Izzivov pa nam zagotovo ne primanjkuje.

Thank you very much.

Hvala lepa.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)