Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset

Prevodilac: Elizabeta Petrovic Lektor: Vanja Cakić

I'm going to talk about your mindset.

Pričaću o vašem načinu razmišljanja.

Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?

Da li vaš način razmišljanja odgovara mojim podacima?

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

Ako ne, jedno ili drugo mora da se unapredi, zar ne?

If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?

When I talk to my students about global issues,

Kada pričam sa mojim studentima o globalnim pitanjima,

and I listen to them in the coffee break,

i slušam ih na pauzi za kafu,

they always talk about "we" and "them."

uvek spominju "nas" i "njih".

And when they come back into the lecture room

I kada se vrate u učionicu

pitam ih: "Kako mislite 'mi' i 'oni'?".

I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?

"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.

"O, pa lako je. Zapadni svet i svet u razvoju," kažu oni.

"We learned it in college."

"Naučili smo na koledžu."

"I šta je onda definicija?"

And what is the definition then? "The definition?

"Definicija? Svi znaju", kažu oni.

Everyone knows," they say.

Ali tada, znate, pritisnem ih ovako.

But then you know, I press them like this.

I jedna devojka je rekla, vrlo pametno,

So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.

"Lako je. Zapadni svet je dug život i mala porodica,

Western world is a long life in a small family.

Developing world is a short life in a large family."

a svet u razvoju je kratak život i velika porodica."

And I like that definition, because it enabled me

I sviđa mi se ta definicija,

jer mi omogućava da prenesem njihovo mišljenje

to transfer their mindset

into the dataset.

u podatke.

I imate ovde podatke.

And here you have the dataset.

I vidite da imamo na ovoj osi veličinu porodice.

So, you can see that what we have on this axis here

is size of family. One, two, three, four, five

Jedno, dva, tri, četiri, petoro dece po ženi, na ovoj osi.

children per woman on this axis.

And here, length of life, life expectancy,

I ovde dužina života, očekivana dužina života,

30, 40, 50.

30, 40, 50.

Upravo ono što su studenti rekli da je njihov koncept o svetu.

Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.

And really this is about the bedroom.

I ovo je u stvari o spavaćoj sobi.

Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,

Da li muškarac i žena odluče da imaju malu porodicu,

and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.

i da se brinu o deci, i koliko dugo će da žive.

It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,

Sve je o kupatilu i kuhinji.

Ako imate sapun, vodu i hranu, znate, duže živite.

you can live long.

I studenti su bili u pravu, zar ne?

And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --

Svet se sastoji iz jedne grupe zemalja ovde

the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,

which had large families and short life. Developing world.

koje imaju velike porodice i kratak život.

Svet u razvoju.

And we had one set of countries up there

I imali smo jedan skup zemalja

which was the western world.

koji je Zapadni svet.

They had small families and long life.

Imaju male porodice i dug život.

And you are going to see here

I videćete ovde

the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.

neverovatnu stvar koja se desila u svetu za vreme mog života.

Then the developing countries applied

I onda su zemlje u razvoju primenile

soap and water, vaccination.

sapun i vodu, vakcinisanje.

And all the developing world started to apply family planning.

I svet u razvoju je počeo da primenjuje planiranje porodice.

And partly to USA who help to provide

I delom zbog SAD-a koji su pomogle

technical advice and investment.

tehnološkim savetima i investicijama.

And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,

I vidite da se svet kreće prema porodicama sa dvoje dece,

and a life with 60 to 70 years.

i životu od 60-70 godina.

But some countries remain back in this area here.

Ali neke zemlje ostaju ovde.

And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.

I vidite da je još uvek tu Avganistan.

We have Liberia. We have Congo.

Imamo Liberiju. Kongo.

So we have countries living there.

Znači imamo zemlje koje žive tu.

So the problem I had

Pa je problem koji sam imao

taj da je pogled na svet koji su imali moji studenti,

is that the worldview that my students had

corresponds to reality in the world

odgovarao realnosti godine u kojoj su njihovi profesori rođeni.

the year their teachers were born.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.

I u stvari, kada smo puštali ovo u svetu -

I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,

Bio sam na Konferenciji Globalnog Zdravlja u Vašingtonu, prošle nedelje,

and I could see the wrong concept

i video sam da pogrešan koncept

even active people in United States had,

i dalje imaju aktivni ljudi u SAD-u.

that they didn't realize the improvement

Nisu shvatili da napredak

of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.

u Meksiku, i Kini, u poređenju sa SAD-om.

Look here when I move them forward.

Pogledajte kada pomerim unapred.

Idemo.

Here we go.

Stižu ih.

They catch up. There's Mexico.

Evo ga Meksiko.

It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.

On je na nivou sa SAD-om u ove dve socijalne dimenzije.

There was less than five percent

Manje od pet odsto specijalista

of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.

u globalnom zdravlju je bilo svesno ovoga.

This great nation, Mexico,

Ova velika nacija, Meksiko,

has the problem that arms are coming from North,

ima problem da oružje dolazi sa severa, preko granice.

across the borders, so they had to stop that,

I morali su da zaustave to.

because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.

Jer imaju čudan odnos sa SAD-om, znate.

But if I would change this axis here,

Ali ako bih promenio ovu osu ovde, vidite,

i na primer stavio dohodak po osobi,

I would instead put income per person.

Income per person. I can put that here.

dohodak po osobi, mogu da stavim tu.

And we will then see

I videćemo potpuno drugačiju sliku.

a completely different picture.

By the way, I'm teaching you

I usput, učim vas kako da koristite naš sajt, Gapminder World,

how to use our website, Gapminder World,

while I'm correcting this,

dok ispravljam ovo

because this is a free utility on the net.

jer je besplatno na netu.

And when I now finally got it right,

I sada kada sam to namestio,

I can go back 200 years in history.

mogu da idem 200 godina unazad.

And I can find United States up there.

I mogu da nađem SAD ovde gore.

And I can let the other countries be shown.

I mogu da pokažem i druge zemlje.

And now I have income per person on this axis.

I sada imam dohodak po osobi na ovoj osi.

And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.

I SAD su imale oko 2 000 dolara, u to vreme.

And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,

I očekivana dužina života je bila oko 35 do 40 godina,

on par with Afghanistan today.

isto kao Avganistan danas.

And what has happened in the world, I will show now.

I šta se desilo sa svetom, pokazaću sada.

This is instead of studying history

Ovo je umesto studiranja istorije

for one year at university.

godinu dana na fakultetu.

You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.

Gledajte me jedan minut i videćete celu stvar.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Vidite kako braon mehurići, a to je zapadna Evropa,

You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,

i žuti, što je SAD,

and the yellow one, which is the United States,

they get richer and richer and also

sve su bogatiji

i počinju da budu sve zdraviji.

start to get healthier and healthier.

And this is now 100 years ago,

I ovo je pre 100 godina

where the rest of the world remains behind.

gde ostatak sveta zaostaje.

Here we come. And that was the influenza.

I ovde smo.

Ovo je bio grip.

That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?

Zato smo toliko uplašeni od gripa, zar ne?

I dalje se pamti.

It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.

Pad očekivane dužine života.

And then we come up. Not until

I onda se podigne.

Ali ne pre nezavisnosti.

independence started.

Look here You have China over there,

Pogledajte ovde Kinu,

you have India over there,

imate Indiju ovde,

and this is what has happened.

i evo šta se desilo.

Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?

Primećujete da imamo Meksiko ovde gore?

Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,

Meksiko uopšte nije uz SAD.

but they are quite close.

Ali su blizu.

And especially, it's interesting to see

I dosta je interesantno videti Kinu i SAD,

China and the United States

during 200 years,

tokom 200 godina.

Jer moj najstariji sin sada radi za Google,

because I have my oldest son now working for Google,

after Google acquired this software.

nakon što je Google kupio ovaj program.

U stvari ovo je dečija radna snaga.

Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet

Moj sin u njegova žena su bili u senci mnogo godina i razvili su ovo.

for many years and developed this.

And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.

I moj najmlađi sin, koji je studirao kineski u Pekingu,

So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?

pa oni imaju dve različite perspektive, znate?

And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,

I moj sin, najmlađi koji je studirao u Pekingu, u Kini,

in China, he got a long-term perspective.

dobio je dugotrajnu perspektivu.

Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,

Dok moj stariji sin, koji radi za Google,

he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.

on bi razvijao za četvrtinu ili polovinu godine.

Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.

Ili, Google je baš velikodušan, tako da ima jednu ili dve godine.

But in China they look generation after generation

Ali u Kini posmatraju generacije

because they remember

jer se sećaju sramotnog perioda od 100 godina

the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,

when they went backwards.

kad su išli unazad.

And then they would remember the first part

Ali bi oni zapamtili prvi deo prošlog veka,

of last century, which was really bad,

koji je stvarno bio loš.

and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.

I posmatraćemo ovaj takozvani "veliki skok unapred".

But this was 1963.

Ali ovo je bila 1963.

Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,

Mao Tse-Tung je na kraju ipak doneo zdravlje u Kini.

I onda je umro.

and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started

I onda je Deng Sjaoping neverovatno krenuo napred.

this amazing move forward.

Isn't it strange to see that the United States

Nije li čudno videti kako su SAD prvo razvile ekonomiju,

first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?

i postepeno se bogatile.

Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,

Dok je Kina mogla mnogo ranije da postane zdrava.

because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,

Jer su oni primenili znanje iz obrazovanja, ishrane,

and then also benefits of penicillin

i potom koristi od penicilina

and vaccines and family planning.

i vakcina, i planiranje porodice.

And Asia could have social development

I Azija je mogla da se socijalno razvije

before they got the economic development.

pre nego što se ekonomski razvila.

So to me, as a public health professor,

Pa meni, kao profesoru javnog zdravlja,

it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.

nije čudno da se ove zemlje sada brzo razvijaju.

Because what you see here, what you see here

Jer ono što vidite ovde

is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,

je ravna zemlja Tomasa Fridmana.

isn't it.

Zar ne?

Nije stvarno ravna.

It's not really, really flat.

Ali zemlje sa prosečnim primanjima,

But the middle income countries --

and this is where I suggest to my students,

i ovde preporučujem mojim studentima

stop using the concept "developing world."

da prestanu da koriste koncept "zemalja u razvoju".

Because after all, talking about the developing world

Jer ipak, priča o svetu u razvoju

is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.

je kao da imamo dva poglavlja u istoriji SAD-a.

The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,

Poslednje poglavlje je o sadašnjosti i predsedniku Obami,

and the other is about the past,

a drugo je o prošlosti,

where you cover everything from Washington

gde je pokriveno sve, od Vašingtona do Ajzenhauera.

to Eisenhower.

Because Washington to Eisenhower,

Jer od Vašingtona do Ajzenhauera,

that is what we find in the developing world.

to je ono što nalazimo u zemljama u razvoju.

We could actually go to Mayflower

Zapravo idemo od Mejflauera

to Eisenhower,

do Ajzenhauera,

and that would be put together into a developing world,

i to bi bilo stavljeno u svetu u razvoju,

which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,

koji razvija gradove na neverovatan način,

which have great entrepreneurs,

koji ima neverovatnepreduzetnike,

but also have the collapsing countries.

ali takođe zemlje u raspadu.

So, how could we make better sense about this?

Ali kako da bolje razumemo ovo?

Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could

Jedan način je da pokušamo da vidimo ako možemo

look at income distribution.

da pogledamo raspodelu dohotka.

This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,

Ovo je raspodela dohotka naroda u svetu,

from $1. This is where you have food to eat.

od jednog dolara,

ovde imate hranu.

These people go to bed hungry.

Ovi ljudi idu u krevet gladni.

And this is the number of people.

I ovo je broj ljudi.

Ovo je 10 dolara,

This is $10, whether you have a public or a private

nebitno da li imate javni ili privatni zdrastveni sistem.

health service system. This is where you can

vde možete da obezbedite zdrastvenu uslugu za porodicu, i školu za decu.

provide health service for your family and school for your children,

and this is OECD countries:

I ovo su zemlje OECD-a.

Green, Latin America, East Europe.

Zeleno, Latinska America, istočna Evropa.

This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.

Ovo je Istočna Azija.

I svetlo plavo je Južna Azija.

And this is how the world changed.

I ovako se svet promenio.

Promenio se ovako.

It changed like this.

Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions

Vidite kako raste?

Kako stotine miliona i milijardi izlaze iz siromaštva u Aziji?

and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?

I idu ovde.

And it goes over here?

I sada ulazim u projekcije.

And I come now, into projections,

I sada moram da stanem ovde kod Leman braće, znate.

but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

that's where the projections are not valid any longer.

Jer projekcije tamo nisu više validne.

Probably the world will do this.

Verovatno će svet uraditi ovo,

and then it will continue forward like this.

i onda će se ovako nastaviti.

But more or less, this is what will happen,

Ali manje-više će se ovo desiti.

and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.

I imamo svet na koji više ne možemo da gledamo kao podeljen.

We have the high income countries here,

Imamo ovde zemlje sa velikim primanjima,

with the United States as a leading power;

sa SAD kao vodećom silom.

we have the emerging economies in the middle,

Imamo u sredini zemlje koje se razvijaju,

which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;

koje dosta finansijski obezbeđuju pomoć.

and we have the low income countries here.

I ovde imamo zemlje sa malim primanjima.

Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,

Da, činjenica je da odavde dolazi novac.

they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.

Štedeli su, znate, poslednjih 10 godina.

And here we have the low income countries

I ovde imamo zemlje sa malim primanjima gde su preduzetnici.

where entrepreneurs are.

And here we have the countries in collapse and war,

I ovde imamo zemlje u kolapsu i ratu,

kao Avganistan, Somalija, deo Konga, Darfur.

like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.

We have all this at the same time.

Sve ovo imamo istovremeno.

Zato je problematično opisati šta se desilo u svetu u razvoju.

That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened

in the developing world.

Jer to što se desilo je tako različito.

Because it's so different, what has happened there.

And that's why I suggest

I zato sam predložio

a slightly different approach of what you would call it.

malo drugačiji prilaz od onoga kako biste ste već nazvali.

And you have huge differences within countries also.

I imate velike razlike i unutar zemalja.

I heard that your departments here were by regions.

Odseci ovde su regioni.

Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,

Imate ovde podsaharsku Afriku,

južnu Aziju, istočnu Aziju, arapske zemlje,

East Asia, Arab states,

East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.

istočnu Evropu, Latinsku Ameriku, i OECD.

And on this axis, GDP.

I na ovoj osi je dohodak.

And on this, heath, child survival,

I na ovoj, zdravlje, koliko dece preživi.

and it doesn't come as a surprise

I nije čudno da je Afrika, južno od Sahara, na dnu.

that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.

But when I split it, when I split it

Ali ako podelim na mehuriće,

into country bubbles,

the size of the bubbles here is the population.

veličina mehurića je populacija.

I vidite da su Sijera Leone i Mauricijus potpuno različiti.

Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.

There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.

Postoji takva razlika unutar podsaharske Afrike.

And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,

I mogu da razdvojim druge.

Ovde je južna Azija, arapski svet.

Arab world.

Now all your different departments.

Sada različiti odseci,

East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.

istočna Evropa, Latinska Amerika, i OECD zemlje.

And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.

I ovde smo. Imamo kotinuum u svetu.

Ne možemo da podelimo.

We cannot put it into two parts.

Ovde dole je Mejfauer.

It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,

Ovde je Vašington, zemlje koje se grade.

building, building countries.

It's Lincoln here, advancing them.

Ovde je Linkoln, koji ih unapređuje.

It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.

Ovo Ajzenhauer donosi novitete u zemlje.

And then it's United States today, up here.

I ovo su SAD, gore.

And we have countries all this way.

I tako imamo zemlje svuda.

Now, this is the important thing

I sada bitna stvar

of understanding how the world has changed.

razumevanja kako se svet promenio.

At this point I decided to make a pause.

U ovom momentu sam odlučio da napravim pauzu.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

I moj je zadatak, u ime ostatka sveta,

And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,

to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,

da prenesem zahvalnost američkim poreskim obaveznicima,

for Demographic Health Survey.

za Demografsko zdrastveno istaživanje.

Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.

Mnogi nisu svesni da - ovo nije šala.

This is very serious.

Ovo je veoma ozbiljno.

Zahvaljujući SAD-ovom stalnom sponzorstvu

It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring

during 25 years of the very good methodology

tokom 25 godina i dobroj metodologiji za merenje smrtnosti dece,

for measuring child mortality

that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.

možemo da shvatimo šta se dešava u svetu.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And it is U.S. government at its best,

I to vlada SAD-a u svom najboljem svetlu,

without advocacy, providing facts,

bez zastupanja, daje činjenice koje su korisne za društvo.

that it's useful for the society.

And providing data free of charge

I daje besplatne podatke na internetu, da ih svet koristi.

on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.

Hvala mnoog.

Quite the opposite of the World Bank,

Potpuno suprotno od Svetske Banke,

who compiled data with government money,

koja je sastavila podatke sa vladinim novcem,

tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,

od poreza, i onda ih prodaje za malo profita,

in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.

na veoma neefikasni način, Gutenbergov način.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

But the people doing that at the World Bank

Ali ljudi koji to rade u svetskoj banci

are among the best in the world.

su među najboljima u svetu.

And they are highly skilled professionals.

I veoma su vešti profesionalci.

It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies

Samo bismo voleli da unapredimo naše internacionalne agencije

to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.

kako bi se bavile svetom na moderan način, kao što mi radimo.

And when it comes to free data and transparency,

I kada su u pitanju besplatni podaci i transparentnost,

United States of America is one of the best.

SAD je jedna od najboljih.

And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.

I to jednom švedskom profesoru javnog zdravlja nije lako da kaže.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I'm not paid to come here, no.

I nisam plaćen da dođem ovde, ne.

Želim da vam pokažem šta se dešava sa podacima,

I would like to show you what happens with the data,

what we can show with this data.

šta možemo da pokažemo sa ovim podacima.

Look here. This is the world.

Pogledajte ovde. Ovo je svet.

With income down there and child mortality.

Sa primanjima dole, i smrtnosti dece.

And what has happened in the world?

I šta se desilo sa svetom.

Since 1950, during the last 50 years

Od 1950, tokom poslednjih 50 godina,

we have had a fall in child mortality.

imamo pad u smrtnosti dece.

And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.

I DHS omogućuje ovo.

And we had an increase in income.

I imamo porast u primanjima.

And the blue former developing countries

I plave bivše zemlje u razvoju

are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.

se mešaju sa bivšim industrijalizovanim zapadnim zemljama.

We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,

I imamo kontinuum.

Ali i dalje imamo, naravno, Kongo, ovde gore.

Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries

I dalje imamo siromašne zemlje

as we have had, always, in history.

kako smo i uvek imali kroz istoriju.

I to je donjih milijardu, gde smo čuli, danas, o kompletno novom pristupu.

And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today

about a completely new approach to do it.

And how fast has this happened?

I koliko brzo se ovo desilo?

Well, MDG 4.

Pa MDG 4.

The United States has not been so eager

SAD nisu baš željne da koriste MDG 4.

to use MDG 4.

Ali vi ste bili glavni sponzori koji su nam omogućili da to izmerimo.

But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,

because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.

Jer možemo da merimo samo smrtnost dece.

And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.

I govorili smo da bi palo za 4 procenta za godinu dana.

Let's see what Sweden has done.

Da vidimo šta je Švedska uradila.

We used to boast about fast social progress.

Nekad smo se hvalili brzim socijalnim napretkom.

Ovde smo bili 1900.

That's where we were, 1900.

U 1900, Švedska je bila ovde.

1900, Sweden was there.

Ista smrtnost dece kao što je Bangladeš imao 1990,

Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,

though they had lower income.

iako su imali manja primanja.

They started very well. They used the aid well.

Lepo su počeli.

Dobro su iskoristili zdrastvenu pomoć.

They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.

Vakcinisali su decu, imaju bolju vodu.

And they reduced child mortality,

Smanjili su smrtnost dece na neverovatnih 4,7% godišnje.

with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.

Pobedili su Švedsku.

I run Sweden the same 16 year period.

Pustio sam Švedsku istih 16 godina.

Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,

Druga runda je Švedska 1916,

against Egypt, 1990.

protiv Egipta 1990.

Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.

Idemo. Još jednom je SAD deo razloga ovde.

They get safe water, they get food for the poor,

Nabavili su bezbednu vodu. Nabavili su hranu za siromašne.

and they get malaria eradicated.

I iskorenili su malariju.

5,5 posto, brži su od milenijumskog razvojnog cilja.

5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.

And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.

I treća šansa za Švedsku, protiv Brazila.

Brazil here has amazing social improvement

I Brazil ovde ima neverovatan socijalni napredak

over the last 16 years,

tokom poslednjih 16 godina.

and they go faster than Sweden.

I idu brže od Švedske.

To znači da svet ide ka jednog tački.

This means that the world is converging.

The middle income countries,

Zemlje sa srednjim primanjima,

the emerging economy, they are catching up.

ekonomije u razvoju, one stižu.

They are moving to cities,

Sele se u gradove,

where they also get better assistance for that.

gde će dobiti isto bolju podršku.

Well the Swedish students protest at this point.

Švedski studenti u ovom trenutku protestuju.

They say, "This is not fair,

Oni kažu, "Ovo nije fer,

jer su ove zemlje imale vakcine i antibiotike

because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics

that were not available for Sweden.

koji nisu bile dostupne Švedskoj.

We have to do real-time competition."

Moramo da napravimo takmičenje u realnom vremenu."

Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.

OK. Dajem vam Singapur, godine koje sam ja rođen.

Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.

Singapur je imao dva puta veću smrtnost dece nego Švedska.

It's the most tropical country in the world,

To je najtropskija zemlja u svetu.

a marshland on the equator.

Močvara na ekvatoru.

And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.

Idemo. Trebalo im je malo vremena da postanu nezavisni,

But then they started to grow their economy.

ali onda su počeli da razvijaju ekonomiju.

And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.

I socijalno su investirali. Otarasili su se malarije.

They got a magnificent health system

Dobili su neverovatan zdrastveni sistem

that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.

koji je pobedio i SAD i Švedsku.

We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!

Nikad nismo mislili da će pobediti Švedsku.

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Sve ove zelene zemlje postižu milenijumske razvojne ciljeve.

All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.

These yellow are just about to be doing this.

Ove žute su blizu toga.

These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.

Ove crvene koje to ne rade, i politika mora da se poboljša.

Not simplistic extrapolation.

Ne baš jednostavno predviđanje.

We have to really find a way

Stvarno moramo da nađemo način

of supporting those countries in a better way.

da podržimo ove zemlje na bolji način.

We have to respect the middle income countries

Moramo da poštujemo ono što zemlje sa srednjim primanjima rade.

on what they are doing.

I moramo da podacima podržimo naš pogled na svet.

And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.

This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.

Ovo je dolar po osobi. Ovo je HIV u zemljama.

The blue is Africa.

Plavo je Afrika.

The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.

Veličina mehura je koliko ljudi je inficirano HIV-om.

You see the tragedy in South Africa there.

Vidite tragediju u Južnoj Africi.

About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.

Oko 20 odsto odraslih je inficirano.

And in spite of them having quite a high income,

I uprkos njihovim velikim primanjima

they have a huge number of HIV infected.

imaju veliki broj zaraženih HIV-om.

But you also see that there are African countries down here.

Ali isto vidite da su afričke zemlje ovde dole.

There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.

Ne postoji tako nešto kao HIV epidemija u Africi.

There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa

Postoji broj, pet, 10 afričkih zemalja

that has the same level as Sweden and United States.

su istog nivoa kao Švedska i SAD.

And there are others who are extremely high.

I ima onih koje su ekstremno visoke.

And I will show you that what has happened

I pokazaću vam šta se desilo

in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy

u jednoj od najboljih zemalja,

sa jednom od najživljih ekonomija u Africi,

in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.

i sa dobrom vladom, Bocvanom.

They have a very high level. It's coming down.

Imali su veoma visok nivo. Snižava se.

But now it's not falling,

Ali sada ne pada.

because there, with help from PEPFAR,

Jer tamo, uz pomoć PEPFAR-a terapija funkcioniše.

it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.

I ljudi ne umiru.

And you can see it's not that easy,

I vidite da nije lako,

that it is war which caused this.

to je rat prouzrokovao.

Jer ovde, u Kongu, je rat.

Because here, in Congo, there is war.

And here, in Zambia, there is peace.

I ovde, u Zambiji, je mir.

And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.

I nije u pitanju ekonomija. Bogatije zemlje imaju malo više.

If I split Tanzania in its income,

I ako podelim Tanzaniju u prihodima,

the richer 20 percent in Tanzania

bogatijih 20 odsto u Tanzaniji

has more HIV than the poorest one.

imaju više HIV-a od najsiromašnijih.

And it's really different within each country.

I stvarno je drugačije unutar zemlje.

Pogledajte provincije Kenije.

Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.

Veoma su različite.

And this is the situation you see.

I ovo je situacija koju vidite.

It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,

Nije duboko siromaštvo. Specifična je situacija.

probably of concurrent sexual partnership

Verovatno zbog više seksualnih partnera

among part of the heterosexual population

među heteroseksualnom populacijom

in some countries, or some parts of countries,

u nekim zemljama ili nekim delovima zemlje

in south and eastern Africa.

u južnoj i istočnoj Africi.

Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.

Nije u pitanju Afrika, nije u pitanju rasa.

Ovo je lokalno pitanje.

Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,

Radite prevenciju u svakom mestu,

in the way it can be done there.

na način na koji može tamo da se izvede.

So to just end up,

I da završim.

there are things of suffering

Milijardu najsiromašnijih pate

in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.

pate od stvari za koje ne znamo.

Those who live beyond the cellphone,

Oni koji žive bez mobilnog telefona,

those who have yet to see a computer,

oni koji tek treba da vide kompjuter,

those who have no electricity at home.

oni koji nemaju struju u kući.

This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years

Ovo je bolest Konzo,

proveo sam 20 godina razjašnjavajući u Africi.

elucidating in Africa.

It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.

Uzrokovana je brzim procesiranjem toksičnih korena kasave, u slučaju gladi.

It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.

Slično je epidemiji pelagre u Misisipiju, '30-ih godina.

It's similar to other nutritional diseases.

Slično je bolestima neuhranjenosti.

It will never affect a rich person.

Nikad neće pogoditi bogatog čoveka.

We have seen it here in Mozambique.

Videli smo to ovde u Mozambiku.

Ovo je epidemija u Mozambiku. Ovo je epidemija u severnoj Tanzaniji.

This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.

You never heard about the disease.

Nikada niste čuli za ovu bolest.

But it's much more than Ebola

Više ljudi je pogođeno ovom bolešću nego ebolom.

that has been affected by this disease.

Cause crippling throughout the world.

Uzrokovala je sakćenje širom sveta.

And over the last two years,

I poslednje dve godine 2 000 ljudi je osakaćeno

2,000 people has been crippled

in the southern tip of Bandundu region.

u južnom delu Bandunda regiona.

That used to be the illegal diamond trade,

Tu se nekada ilegalno trgovalo dijamantima,

from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.

iz dela u Angoli gde je dominirala UNITA.

That has now disappeared,

Sada je to nestalo.

I oni su sada u velikom ekonomskom problemu.

and they are now in great economic problem.

And one week ago, for the first time,

I pre jedne nedelje, po prvi put,

there were four lines on the Internet.

bile su 4 linije na internetu.

Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies

Nemojte se buniti progresom ekonomija u razvijanju,

and the great capacity

i velikih kapaciteta

of people in the middle income countries

ljudi u zemljama sa srednjim primanjima,

and in peaceful low income countries.

i mirnih zemalja sa malim primanjima.

There is still mystery in one billion.

I dalje stoji misterija od jedne milijarde.

And we have to have more concepts

I moramo da imamo više koncepta

than just developing countries and developing world.

nego samo zemlje i svet u razvoju.

Treba nam novi način razmišljanja.

We need a new mindset. The world is converging,

Svet se kreće ka jednoj tački.

but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.

Ali, ali, ali, ne milijarda na dnu.

They are still as poor as they've ever been.

Još uvek su siromašni kao što su bili.

It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.

To nije održivo.

Ali se to neće desiti oko jedne supermoći.

But you will remain

Ali ćete vi ostati

one of the most important superpowers,

jedna od najbitnijih supremoći.

and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.

I za ubuduće, supermoć u koju se nadamo.

And this institution

I ova institucija

will have a very crucial role,

će imati ključnu ulogu,

not for United States, but for the world.

ne za SAD, već za svet.

So you have a very bad name,

Ali imate loše ime,

Vlada SAD-a, ali ovo nije Vlada SAD-a.

State Department. This is not the State Department.

It's the World Department.

Nego je Vlada Sveta.

Imamo veliku nadu u vama.

And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)