Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset

譯者: Jean Chen 審譯者: Ashley Lin

I'm going to talk about your mindset.

我今天要來談談你的心智

Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?

你的心智是否與我的資料相符？

(Laughter)

(笑)

If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?

若不相符，其中一個需要做更新，對不對？

When I talk to my students about global issues,

當我跟我的學生談到全球議題時，

and I listen to them in the coffee break,

在休息時間時，我總聽到他們説，

they always talk about "we" and "them."

説〞我們〞和〞他們〞。

And when they come back into the lecture room

等他們回到教室的時候，

I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?

我問〞你們口中的「我們」和「他們」是什麼意思？〞

"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.

〞喔，很簡單啊，就是西方（已開發）世界和開發中的世界〞，他們説。

"We learned it in college."

“我們在大學時所學的”

And what is the definition then? "The definition?

那是什麼意思？定義是什麼？

Everyone knows," they say.

他們回答說：這是常識。

But then you know, I press them like this.

接著，我繼續逼問他們

So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.

於是一個很聰明的女孩答説，“這很簡單”

Western world is a long life in a small family.

西方世界泛指長壽、小家庭的國家。

Developing world is a short life in a large family."

而開發中世界是平均壽命短，大家庭的國家。

And I like that definition, because it enabled me

我喜歡這個定義，因為這讓我

to transfer their mindset

可以將他們的心智轉換

into the dataset.

成資料

And here you have the dataset.

於是這裡我們得到這個資料結果

So, you can see that what we have on this axis here

大家可以看到我們在這個軸上：

is size of family. One, two, three, four, five

是家庭的大小：一，二，三，四，五

children per woman on this axis.

個小孩/每個女人為單位在這個軸上。

And here, length of life, life expectancy,

然後這裡，平均壽命的長度

30, 40, 50.

三十，四十，五十。

Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.

正是學生們對這個世界的概念。

And really this is about the bedroom.

而這正與臥房有關

Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,

當男人和女人決定建立一個小家庭

and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.

然後撫育他們的小孩，以及他們會活多久。

It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,

這和浴室與廚房有關。也就是說，如果你有肥皂，水和食物

you can live long.

你就可以活得久。

And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --

所以這些學生是對的。不過這不是世界組成的方式

the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,

世界在這些地方組成：在這裡的一大群國家

which had large families and short life. Developing world.

這些家庭大，平均壽命短的開發中世界。

And we had one set of countries up there

然後在上面一點這裡我們有另一群國家

which was the western world.

就是西方世界。

They had small families and long life.

他們家庭小，平均壽命長。

And you are going to see here

然後你在這裡將看到

the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.

在我一生中世界所發生最驚人的事。

Then the developing countries applied

自此這些開發中國家使用

soap and water, vaccination.

肥皂、水，疫苗

And all the developing world started to apply family planning.

所有開發中國家開始採行家庭計劃。

And partly to USA who help to provide

一部份是美國幫忙提供

technical advice and investment.

技術諮詢與投資

And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,

你看到全部的世界移向兩個小孩的家庭

and a life with 60 to 70 years.

平均壽命約60到70歲

But some countries remain back in this area here.

但有一些國家仍停留在後面這個區域

And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.

大家可以看到阿富汗仍然在下面這區

We have Liberia. We have Congo.

利比亞、剛果

So we have countries living there.

仍然有國家在這些區域

So the problem I had

所以我發現到問題就是

is that the worldview that my students had

這些學生們所具有的世界觀

corresponds to reality in the world

對應真實的世界

the year their teachers were born.

停留在他們老師出生的這一年。

(Laughter)

笑

(Applause)

鼓掌

And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.

所以我們事實上在玩弄這個過時的概念

I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,

我上禮拜在華盛頓參加全球健康會議

and I could see the wrong concept

而我看到這個錯誤的概念

even active people in United States had,

甚至是在美國活躍的人仍有。

that they didn't realize the improvement

也就是他們並沒有察覺到進步：

of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.

墨西哥的進步、中國的進步，相較於美國的

Look here when I move them forward.

看看這裡，當我將他們推進

Here we go.

到這裡

They catch up. There's Mexico.

他們追上了。這裡有墨西哥

It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.

在這兩個社會面向上，墨西哥和美國不相上下

There was less than five percent

只有不到5%

of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.

的全球健康專員意識到這件事

This great nation, Mexico,

這個大國，墨西哥

has the problem that arms are coming from North,

有北方來的武器的問題

across the borders, so they had to stop that,

越過國界，所以他們必須阻止走私這件事。

because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.

因為他們和美國有著微妙的關係，你知道。

But if I would change this axis here,

但如果我改變這裡的這個軸，看。

I would instead put income per person.

然後把單位改成人均收入

Income per person. I can put that here.

人均收人。我可以把那放在這。

And we will then see

然後我們可以看到，

a completely different picture.

一個完全不同的現象

By the way, I'm teaching you

對了，我正在教你們

how to use our website, Gapminder World,

如何使用我們的網站：Gapminder World

while I'm correcting this,

為什麼我要修改這個？

because this is a free utility on the net.

因為這是網路上免費的資源

And when I now finally got it right,

而當我終於把它弄對了，

I can go back 200 years in history.

我可以回到二百年前

And I can find United States up there.

然後我可以看到美國在上面這裡，

And I can let the other countries be shown.

而且我可以顯示其他國家

And now I have income per person on this axis.

而現在我在這個軸上有人均收入

And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.

美國人在當時平均只有2,000美金

And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,

而平均壽命只有35到40歲

on par with Afghanistan today.

和今天的阿富汗一樣。

And what has happened in the world, I will show now.

然後世界上發生了什麼事，我現在展示給你們看

This is instead of studying history

相較於在大學裡

for one year at university.

讀一年的歷史

You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.

你可以用一分鐘的時間看我，然後你看到完整的故事♫

(Laughter)

（笑）

You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,

你可以看到這些代表西歐的棕色圈圈，

and the yellow one, which is the United States,

而代表美國的黃色圈圈

they get richer and richer and also

他們如何愈來愈富有並且

start to get healthier and healthier.

開始愈來愈健康

And this is now 100 years ago,

而這是100年前，

where the rest of the world remains behind.

當其餘的國家還遠遠落後

Here we come. And that was the influenza.

就是這裡，流行病爆發

That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?

這就是為什麼我們這麼怕流行性感冒，不是嗎？

It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.

人們仍然記得。平均壽命的縮短。

And then we come up. Not until

然後我們起來了，一直要到

independence started.

獨立時期開始

Look here You have China over there,

看中國在那裡

you have India over there,

而印度在那裡

and this is what has happened.

而這是已經發生的

Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?

你注意到那裡，我們有墨西哥在上面那裡，

Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,

墨西哥和美國一點也不相等

but they are quite close.

但他們很近

And especially, it's interesting to see

特別有趣的是觀察

China and the United States

這200年間的

during 200 years,

中國跟美國

because I have my oldest son now working for Google,

因為我大兒子在Google買下這套軟體後，

after Google acquired this software.

就在Google工作

Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet

因為事實上這是我孩子的心血。我兒子和他的妻子待在小房間裡

for many years and developed this.

許多年然後開發了這個

And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.

而我的小兒子，曾去北京學中文

So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?

結果他們給了我兩種不同的觀點，你們知道嗎？

And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,

我那個在中國北京讀過書的小兒子，

in China, he got a long-term perspective.

他看事情是用長遠的觀點

Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,

而我那在Google工作的大兒子，

he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.

他則要每季或每半年開發新的成果

Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.

或者説Google還蠻大方的，所以他可以有一到兩年去做這件事。

But in China they look generation after generation

但在中國，他們看世代的交替

because they remember

因為他們記得

the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,

過去這100年來非常困窘的時期，

when they went backwards.

這段他們退步的時期

And then they would remember the first part

於是他們會記得上個世紀的

of last century, which was really bad,

前半部，非常糟的時期。

and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.

然後歷經這個所謂的大躍進

But this was 1963.

但這是在1963年

Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,

毛澤東終於為中國帶來健康

and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started

然後他死了。而鄧小平開始

this amazing move forward.

這個驚人的進步

Isn't it strange to see that the United States

難道看美國一開始發展經濟

first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?

然後逐漸富裕不奇怪嗎？

Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,

而中國卻在更早的時候就發展健康，

because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,

因為他們可以實施了教育、營養的知識

and then also benefits of penicillin

他們同樣受惠於盤尼西林

and vaccines and family planning.

疫苗以及家庭計劃。

And Asia could have social development

所以亞洲在經濟發展前

before they got the economic development.

先有社會層面的建設

So to me, as a public health professor,

所以對我一個公共衛生教授而言，

it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.

看這些國家發展如此迅速一點也不奇怪。

Because what you see here, what you see here

因為你在這裡看到什麼，在這裡看到的

is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,

就是湯瑪士傅利曼所説的世界是平的

isn't it.

不是嗎？

It's not really, really flat.

其實不竟然如此

But the middle income countries --

但這些中產國家

and this is where I suggest to my students,

這是我對我的學生建議的

stop using the concept "developing world."

停止用〝開發中國家〞這樣的概念

Because after all, talking about the developing world

因為畢竟，提到開發中國家

is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.

就像是讀美國歷史的兩個章節

The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,

後面的這章是現在，也就是歐巴馬總統

and the other is about the past,

而另一章則是過去

where you cover everything from Washington

指的是從華盛頓開始

to Eisenhower.

到艾森豪

Because Washington to Eisenhower,

因為從華盛頓到艾森豪

that is what we find in the developing world.

是我們在開發中國家中看見的

We could actually go to Mayflower

我們實際上可以從五月花號

to Eisenhower,

到艾森豪

and that would be put together into a developing world,

這段時間的情形可以在開發中國家中看見

which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,

然而這些國家中的城市正以驚人的方式成長

which have great entrepreneurs,

其中有許多厲害的創業家

but also have the collapsing countries.

但也有正在傾頹中的國家

So, how could we make better sense about this?

所以我們要怎麼要如何解釋這樣的結果呢?

Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could

一種方式是看我們可以試著

look at income distribution.

觀察收入的分配

This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,

這是世界上各民族的收入分配

from $1. This is where you have food to eat.

從一元。這裡是你有食物可以吃。

These people go to bed hungry.

這些人餓著肚子睡覺

And this is the number of people.

而這些人

This is $10, whether you have a public or a private

這是十元。不論你有公營或私營的

health service system. This is where you can

健康服務系統，這裡你可以

provide health service for your family and school for your children,

提供你的家人、學校與子女健康服務。

and this is OECD countries:

然後這裡是OECD成員國

Green, Latin America, East Europe.

綠色的，拉丁美洲、東歐

This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.

這裡是東亞。而淡藍色的圈圈是南亞。

And this is how the world changed.

這是世界如何改變。

It changed like this.

它像這樣改變。

Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions

你可以看到它是怎麼成長的嗎？有成千上百萬

and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?

甚至上億的亞洲人正在遠離貧窮？

And it goes over here?

它走到這裡

And I come now, into projections,

然後我現在到這理，做預測。

but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --

但我必須要停在雷曼兄弟門口，你知道，因為⋯

(Laughter)

（笑）

that's where the projections are not valid any longer.

因為這裡的預測不再準確

Probably the world will do this.

或許這個世界會這麼做

and then it will continue forward like this.

然後它會繼續像這樣往前

But more or less, this is what will happen,

但或多或少這就是會發生的

and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.

我們有一個不能被分開檢視的世界

We have the high income countries here,

這裡有高所得國家

with the United States as a leading power;

以美國為首

we have the emerging economies in the middle,

在中間這裡有新興市場

which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;

提供很多資供緊急融資

and we have the low income countries here.

而這裡有低所得國家

Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,

這是金錢來源的事實

they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.

你知道的，他們在過去十年間一直在存錢

And here we have the low income countries

而這裡的低所得國家

where entrepreneurs are.

是創業家所在的地方

And here we have the countries in collapse and war,

而這裡我們有衰敗和戰爭中的國家

like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.

阿富汗、索馬利亞，部分的剛果、達弗

We have all this at the same time.

我們同時擁有這些

That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened

這也是為什麼要解釋在開發中世界所發生的事

in the developing world.

是多麼困難

Because it's so different, what has happened there.

因為它是如此不同，指的是在那裡所發生的事。

And that's why I suggest

也因此我建議

a slightly different approach of what you would call it.

用些微不同的方式來稱呼

And you have huge differences within countries also.

同時在國與國間，也有很大的差別

I heard that your departments here were by regions.

我聽説你們的部門是以地區分的

Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,

這裡有次撒哈拉非洲，南亞

East Asia, Arab states,

東亞、阿拉伯國家

East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.

東歐、拉丁美洲和OECD國家

And on this axis, GDP.

GDP在這個軸上

And on this, heath, child survival,

健康以及小孩的存活率在這裡

and it doesn't come as a surprise

不意外地

that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.

非洲、撒哈拉南部在底部

But when I split it, when I split it

但當我分開它，當我拆解它

into country bubbles,

成為代表國家的圈圈

the size of the bubbles here is the population.

圈圈的大小是人口數

Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.

你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不同的

There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.

在次撒哈拉非洲地區裡就有如此的差異

And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,

我還把其他的也拆解了。這裡的是南亞

Arab world.

阿拉伯世界

Now all your different departments.

這樣你們看到了不同的區域與國家

East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.

東歐、拉丁美洲、和富裕國家

And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.

於是我們就得到了一個世界的進程

We cannot put it into two parts.

我們不能只把它分成兩個部分

It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,

下面這裡是五月花（時期），這裡是華盛頓（時期）

building, building countries.

不斷地開發、建設國家

It's Lincoln here, advancing them.

這裡是林肯（時期），又加速了發展

It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.

是艾森豪為這些國家帶來現代化

And then it's United States today, up here.

然後在上面這裡就是今天的美國

And we have countries all this way.

於是我們有這些模式發展的國家

Now, this is the important thing

現在重點來了

of understanding how the world has changed.

要了解世界是如何被改變

At this point I decided to make a pause.

在這個點我決定要。。。。。。。。。。

(Laughter)

（笑）

And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,

而這是我的工作，代表其他的世界

to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,

傳達對美國納稅人的謝意

for Demographic Health Survey.

關於人口統計的健康調查

Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.

很多人沒意識到—不，我不是開玩笑

This is very serious.

這是很嚴肅的議題

It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring

是因為美國不停的支持

during 25 years of the very good methodology

在這25年之中有非常好的方法

for measuring child mortality

來計算幼兒的死亡率

that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.

好讓我們能理解世界上正在發生的事

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And it is U.S. government at its best,

而美國政府盡力的

without advocacy, providing facts,

不經任何倡導，直接提供數據

that it's useful for the society.

而這是對社會有益的

And providing data free of charge

甚至還提供免費的資料

on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.

在網路上以供全世界使用。非常謝謝你們。

Quite the opposite of the World Bank,

相反地世界銀行

who compiled data with government money,

用各政府的錢收集資料

tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,

稅收，然後他們賣資料以圖一點點的利潤

in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.

用一種非常無效的方法

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

But the people doing that at the World Bank

但在世界銀行做這些事的人

are among the best in the world.

是世界上最頂尖的人

And they are highly skilled professionals.

而且是有很高技巧的專業人士

It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies

正是如此，我們需要升級我們的國際機構

to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.

用現代的方式來處理這個世界，就好像我們做的

And when it comes to free data and transparency,

而關於免費的數據與透明度

United States of America is one of the best.

美國是數一數二的好

And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.

而這樣的讚美可是很難從一個瑞典公衛教授嘴巴裡吐出來的

(Laughter)

（笑）

And I'm not paid to come here, no.

此外，我不是受雇來這裡的，不是。

I would like to show you what happens with the data,

我想跟大家分享這資料的含義

what we can show with this data.

及如何解讀這結果

Look here. This is the world.

看這裡，這是我們所處的世界

With income down there and child mortality.

收入和小孩的死亡率在下面這裡

And what has happened in the world?

那麼這個世界到底經歷了什麼呢？

Since 1950, during the last 50 years

自1950年，在過去50年來，

we have had a fall in child mortality.

小孩的死亡率降低了，

And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.

人口跟健康調查報告使我們得知此結果

And we had an increase in income.

我們也看到收入的增加

And the blue former developing countries

而這些藍色的前開發中國家

are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.

正和之前的工業化西方世界融合

We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,

所以這是進程。當然我們仍在進程中。

Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries

剛果，在上面那，我們仍有貧窮的國家。

as we have had, always, in history.

這樣的情況,古今皆然

And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today

那是今天我們所聽説的最後的百萬

about a completely new approach to do it.

以近乎全新的方式來完成

And how fast has this happened?

那麼這樣的發生有多快速呢

Well, MDG 4.

説説聯合國千禧年發展目標4

The United States has not been so eager

美國至今仍未熱切地

to use MDG 4.

運用千禧年發展目標4

But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,

但你們一直以來是主要的資助者好讓我們可以去衡量它

because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.

因為這是我們可以衡量的唯一的兒童死亡率

And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.

而且我們習慣説每年死亡率應該下降4％

Let's see what Sweden has done.

讓我們來看看瑞典做了什麼

We used to boast about fast social progress.

我們曾經自豪快速的社會進步

That's where we were, 1900.

這是我們過去所在，1900

1900, Sweden was there.

1900時，瑞典在那裡

Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,

和1990年時和孟加拉一樣的兒童死亡率

though they had lower income.

雖然他們有比較低的收入

They started very well. They used the aid well.

他們的開始非常好，他們使用援助得很好

They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.

他們為兒童打預防針，他們得到比較乾淨的水

And they reduced child mortality,

所以兒童死亡率下降了

with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.

以每年4.7%的驚人速率。他們打敗了瑞典

I run Sweden the same 16 year period.

我們看這16年的瑞典

Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,

這會是瑞典的1916年

against Egypt, 1990.

對應1990年的埃及

Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.

這裡我們得到結果。又一次，美國是部份原因

They get safe water, they get food for the poor,

他們得到較乾淨的水，貧窮的人獲得食物

and they get malaria eradicated.

而且瘧疾也被根除了

5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.

5.5%。這比千禧年發展目標還要快

And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.

而瑞典的第三次機會，在這裡對上巴西

Brazil here has amazing social improvement

而這裡的巴西有驚人的社會成長

over the last 16 years,

在過去的16年裡

and they go faster than Sweden.

他們走得比瑞典要快

This means that the world is converging.

這意味著世界在匯合中

The middle income countries,

這些中產國家

the emerging economy, they are catching up.

這個新興的經濟體，他們正迎頭趕上

They are moving to cities,

他們的人口移到都市

where they also get better assistance for that.

在這裡他們同樣可以得到比較好的支援

Well the Swedish students protest at this point.

而同時間瑞典人做的就是保護

They say, "This is not fair,

他們説，這不公平

because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics

因為這些國家有疫苗和抗生素

that were not available for Sweden.

這在當時的瑞典並沒有

We have to do real-time competition."

這樣的比較不夠即時

Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.

好吧，我舉新加坡為例，在我出生的這一年

Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.

新加坡的兒童死亡率是瑞典兩倍

It's the most tropical country in the world,

它是世界上最熱帶的國家

a marshland on the equator.

是在赤道上的沼澤

And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.

這裡得到結果。他們花了一點時間得到獨立

But then they started to grow their economy.

但隨即他們開始發展經濟

And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.

他們發展了社會投資，他們擺脫了瘧疾

They got a magnificent health system

他們有良好的健康系統

that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.

他們打敗了美國和瑞典

We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!

我們從未想過他們能勝過瑞典

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.

所有這些綠色的國家都在達到千禧年發展目標

These yellow are just about to be doing this.

這些黃色的正要開始發展

These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.

這些紅色的國家沒有去做，而且他們的政策需要改進

Not simplistic extrapolation.

這不是最簡化的推斷

We have to really find a way

我們必須真的找到一個方式

of supporting those countries in a better way.

用更好的方式來支持那些國家

We have to respect the middle income countries

我們必須尊重這些中產國家

on what they are doing.

關於他們正在做的事

And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.

而且我們必須根據事實地來看這個世界

This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.

這是每人每美元。這是在這些國家的愛滋病感染

The blue is Africa.

藍色的是非洲

The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.

這些圈圈的大小是指有多少人感染愛滋病

You see the tragedy in South Africa there.

你們在那裡可以看到在南非的悲劇

About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.

大約有20％的成年人口都被感染了

And in spite of them having quite a high income,

雖然他們有很相當高的收入

they have a huge number of HIV infected.

有很多人都感染愛滋病

But you also see that there are African countries down here.

但你們還可以看到下面的這些非洲國家

There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.

在非洲並沒有所謂的愛滋蔓延

There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa

有一個數字，在非洲5到10個國家

that has the same level as Sweden and United States.

和瑞典與美國有相同的水準

And there are others who are extremely high.

同時也有其他非常地高

And I will show you that what has happened

我將展現給各位發生了什麼事

in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy

在最好的國家之一裡，有最生氣勃勃的經濟

in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.

也有很好的政府效能的是非洲的波紮那

They have a very high level. It's coming down.

他們的水準非常高，而這兒正在下降

But now it's not falling,

但現在它不再下降了，

because there, with help from PEPFAR,

因為那裡，有了美國總統防治艾滋病緊急救援計劃的幫助

it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.

連同治療，人們不再死亡

And you can see it's not that easy,

大家可以看到這並不容易

that it is war which caused this.

而那是戰爭引發的

Because here, in Congo, there is war.

因為在剛果這裡有戰爭

And here, in Zambia, there is peace.

而這裡在尚比亞有和平

And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.

這不是經濟，較富裕的國家比較高

If I split Tanzania in its income,

如果我將坦尚尼亞依它的收入拆開

the richer 20 percent in Tanzania

在坦尚尼亞較富的20％

has more HIV than the poorest one.

比最窮的這些有更多的愛滋病

And it's really different within each country.

所以在國家之內的情況也是大有差異的

Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.

看看肯亞的這些省分，他們非常不同

And this is the situation you see.

而這是你看到的情況

It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,

這不是很嚴重的貧窮，這是特別情況

probably of concurrent sexual partnership

或許是現代的同居

among part of the heterosexual population

在異性戀人口中的部份

in some countries, or some parts of countries,

在一些國家，或一些國家的部份

in south and eastern Africa.

在南部和東部的非洲

Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.

不要泛指非洲，不要把它變成一個種族的問題

Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,

讓它是一個個別議題，而且在每個地方都做預防

in the way it can be done there.

某種程度上，這是可以做得到的

So to just end up,

所以只要停止、結束

there are things of suffering

有折磨人的事

in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.

在這十億最窮的人身上，而我們不知道

Those who live beyond the cellphone,

這些人沒有手機用

those who have yet to see a computer,

也從沒看過電腦

those who have no electricity at home.

家裡沒有電

This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years

這是Konzo的病，我花了２０年

elucidating in Africa.

在非洲釐清

It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.

成因是在飢荒的情況下，有毒樹薯根的快速演成

It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.

就好像在30年代在密西西比的玉蜀黍疹

It's similar to other nutritional diseases.

它和其他的營養疾病相同

It will never affect a rich person.

有錢的人不會感染到

We have seen it here in Mozambique.

我們在莫三比克看到這樣的情形

This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.

這是莫三比克裡的流行病。這在北部的坦尚尼亞也造成流行

You never heard about the disease.

你從未聽聞這樣的疾病

But it's much more than Ebola

但它比伊波拉還要多

that has been affected by this disease.

而伊波拉也受這樣的疾病影響

Cause crippling throughout the world.

造成全世界的嚴重後果

And over the last two years,

而在過去的兩年裡

2,000 people has been crippled

2,000人已經殘廢了

in the southern tip of Bandundu region.

在南部端點的Bandunda(前剛果民主共和國)地區

That used to be the illegal diamond trade,

那裡曾有非法的鑽石交易

from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.

由占領安哥拉地區的UNITA組織

That has now disappeared,

現在已經消失了

and they are now in great economic problem.

而他們現在陷入了很大的經濟問題

And one week ago, for the first time,

一個星期前，首度

there were four lines on the Internet.

在網路上有四條線

Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies

不要迷糊了新興經濟體的進展

and the great capacity

以及中產國家人民

of people in the middle income countries

的驚人潛力

and in peaceful low income countries.

在和平雖低收入的國家

There is still mystery in one billion.

10億人口的未來還是未知數

And we have to have more concepts

而我們必須意識到

than just developing countries and developing world.

而不僅是開發中國家和開發中的世界

We need a new mindset. The world is converging,

我們需要全新的思維模式，這個世界正在匯合

but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.

但，但，但，不是最下面的這一大群

They are still as poor as they've ever been.

他們仍像過去一樣窮

It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.

這不會持續下去，而且也不會在一個強權的手上發生

But you will remain

但美國還是會保有

one of the most important superpowers,

最重要強權之一的寶座

and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.

而且到時是最有希望的強權

And this institution

而 國務院

will have a very crucial role,

將扮演非常重要的角色

not for United States, but for the world.

不單為了美國，而是為了全世界

So you have a very bad name,

你們組織名稱不妥

State Department. This is not the State Department.

國務院，這不是一個國家的內務單位而已

It's the World Department.

而是全天下的

And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.

而且我們對你們有很高的希望，謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）