Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset

154,398 views ・ 2009-08-31

TED


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翻译人员: Halei Liu 校对人员: Zachary Lin Zhao
00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset.
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我会来谈谈你们的心态。
00:20
Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
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看看你们的心态和我的数据是相符合的吗?
00:24
(Laughter)
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(笑)
00:25
If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
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如果不是,其中的一个就需要升级了,对吗?
00:28
When I talk to my students about global issues,
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当我和我的学生在谈论全球问题时,
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee break,
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我是在喝咖啡的时候听他们谈论的。
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
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他们经常会谈论“我们”和“他们”。
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture room
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然后当他们回到上课的地方的时候,
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
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我问他们,“你们说‘我们’和‘他们’是什么意思”?
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.
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“啊,那很简单,就是西方世界和发展中国家”,他们说到。
00:45
"We learned it in college."
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“我们在大学里学到的。”
00:47
And what is the definition then? "The definition?
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那定义是什么呢?“定义?
00:49
Everyone knows," they say.
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每个人都知道,”他们说到,
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
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但是你知道,我向这样给他们施加压力。
00:53
So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.
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所以,一个女孩说到,十分聪明的,“这很简单。
00:55
Western world is a long life in a small family.
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西方国家是在一个小家庭里拥有较长的寿命。
00:58
Developing world is a short life in a large family."
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发展中国家是在一个大家庭里有较短的寿命。“
01:01
And I like that definition, because it enabled me
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我喜欢这样的定义因为这让我可以去
01:04
to transfer their mindset
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将他们的心态转换
01:06
into the dataset.
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到我的数据中。
01:08
And here you have the dataset.
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这里你有数据。
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
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你可以看到这个坐标轴代表着
01:12
is size of family. One, two, three, four, five
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家庭的大小。每个妇女有一,二,三,四,五
01:15
children per woman on this axis.
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个小孩在这个坐标轴上。
01:17
And here, length of life, life expectancy,
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在这里,是生命的长度,预期寿命,
01:19
30, 40, 50.
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30、40、50.
01:21
Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
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这就正是我的学生概念中的世界。
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom.
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而这也和卧室有关。
01:27
Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,
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男人和女人决定他们是否创造一个小的家庭,
01:31
and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
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是否去照顾他们的孩子,以及他们的寿命长短。
01:34
It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,
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是和卧室和厨房有关。如果你有肥皂,水和食物,你知道,
01:38
you can live long.
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你可以活的长点。
01:40
And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --
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学生们是对的。这不是世界所包括的--
01:42
the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,
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世界所包括的在这里,一组在这里的国家,
01:46
which had large families and short life. Developing world.
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他们有较大的家庭和较短的寿命。发展中国家。
01:50
And we had one set of countries up there
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然后我们在这上面有一组国家
01:53
which was the western world.
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是西方国家。
01:55
They had small families and long life.
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他们有较小的家庭和较长的寿命。
01:58
And you are going to see here
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然后你会看到在这里
02:00
the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
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发生的奇妙的事情,那就是在这个世界上在我有生之年发生的。
02:04
Then the developing countries applied
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发展中国家应用了
02:06
soap and water, vaccination.
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肥皂和水,疫苗。
02:08
And all the developing world started to apply family planning.
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以及所有的发展中国家都应用了家庭计划。
02:11
And partly to USA who help to provide
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美国也一部分的参与帮助去提供
02:13
technical advice and investment.
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技术建议和投资。
02:16
And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,
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而且你可以看到世界上所有的家庭都向两个小孩移去,
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years.
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也向60到70的寿命移去。
02:23
But some countries remain back in this area here.
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但是有些国家还是在原来这里的地方。
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
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然后你可以看到阿富汗还是在那底下。
02:29
We have Liberia. We have Congo.
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我们还有黎巴嫩。有刚果。
02:32
So we have countries living there.
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所以我们还有国家生活在那里。
02:34
So the problem I had
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所以我的问题是
02:36
is that the worldview that my students had
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我学生所有的世界观
02:40
corresponds to reality in the world
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还停留在他们老师所
02:42
the year their teachers were born.
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出生的年代。
02:45
(Laughter)
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(笑)
02:48
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
02:51
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
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当我们,实际上,我们已经在全世界展示了这个。
02:54
I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,
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上个星期,我在华盛顿的世界健康会议上,
02:57
and I could see the wrong concept
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而且我可以看到,甚至是在美国活跃人物上
03:00
even active people in United States had,
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都有这样的错误的概念。
03:03
that they didn't realize the improvement
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他们没有意识到墨西哥,中国
03:06
of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
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相对与美国的进步。
03:11
Look here when I move them forward.
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看这里,当我把他们向前移动时。
03:13
Here we go.
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开始了。
03:20
They catch up. There's Mexico.
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他们迎头赶上。这是墨西哥。
03:23
It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
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在这两个社会层面是和美国一样的。
03:26
There was less than five percent
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这里要注意的是,
03:28
of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.
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全球健康专家中,只有少于5%的人意识到这一点。
03:31
This great nation, Mexico,
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这个伟大的国家,墨西哥,
03:33
has the problem that arms are coming from North,
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问题是大量武器来自北方,
03:36
across the borders, so they had to stop that,
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穿越边界。所以他们必须制止这一点。
03:38
because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
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因为,你知道,他们和美国有的奇怪的关系。
03:42
But if I would change this axis here,
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但是如果我把坐标轴换一下,看,
03:46
I would instead put income per person.
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除了这样做,这里,我会把每个人的收入放上。
03:49
Income per person. I can put that here.
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人均收入。我可以放在这里。
03:52
And we will then see
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然后我们会看到
03:54
a completely different picture.
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一个完全不同的图片。
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching you
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顺便说一下,我在教你们
03:58
how to use our website, Gapminder World,
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怎么使用我们的网站,Gapminder World(代沟提醒世界)。
04:00
while I'm correcting this,
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我为什么会纠正这个?
04:02
because this is a free utility on the net.
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因为这是在网上的一个免费设备。
04:05
And when I now finally got it right,
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而且我终于把它做对了,
04:08
I can go back 200 years in history.
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我可以在历史上回去200年。
04:12
And I can find United States up there.
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这样我可以在上面这里找到美国。
04:16
And I can let the other countries be shown.
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而且我可以显示其他的国家。
04:19
And now I have income per person on this axis.
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现在我在这个坐标轴上有人均收入。
04:22
And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.
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美国每个人只有2000美元,在那时。
04:25
And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,
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而且寿命的期望值是35到40年,
04:29
on par with Afghanistan today.
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是和阿富汗的今天一样的。
04:31
And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
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我现在马上要展示的,就是世界发生了什么。
04:36
This is instead of studying history
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这不是在学习历史
04:38
for one year at university.
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而是在大学里的一年。
04:40
You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.
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你可以看我一分钟,然后你就会看到一切。
04:43
(Laughter)
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(笑)
04:45
You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,
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你可以看到这些棕色的气泡,是西欧,
04:50
and the yellow one, which is the United States,
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这些黄色的是美国,
04:53
they get richer and richer and also
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他们是怎样变的越来越富有,
04:55
start to get healthier and healthier.
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同时是这样变的越来越健康。
04:57
And this is now 100 years ago,
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现在这个是100年前
04:59
where the rest of the world remains behind.
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当世界其他的国家都还是落后时。
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza.
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我们开始了。那就是大流感。
05:07
That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?
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那就是我们为什么会这么害怕流感,对吗?
05:10
It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
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我们仍然记得。寿命的缩短。
05:13
And then we come up. Not until
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然后我们又上升了。直到
05:16
independence started.
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我们独立。
05:18
Look here You have China over there,
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看看你在这里有中国,
05:20
you have India over there,
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在那里有印度,
05:22
and this is what has happened.
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这就是所发生的。
05:30
Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?
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你可以注意到,我们在这上面有墨西哥。
05:33
Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,
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墨西哥和美国不是完全一样的。
05:35
but they are quite close.
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但是他们是十分接近。
05:37
And especially, it's interesting to see
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而且在这200年里去看看
05:39
China and the United States
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美国和中国
05:41
during 200 years,
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是十分有趣的。
05:44
because I have my oldest son now working for Google,
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因为现在我的大儿子在谷歌工作,
05:46
after Google acquired this software.
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当谷歌收购了这款软件后。
05:49
Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet
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因为这时间上是用了童工。我的儿子和妻子在衣橱里
05:52
for many years and developed this.
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花了很多时间来开发这个。
05:54
And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
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而我的小儿子,在北京学习中文。
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?
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所以我有他们的两个不同的观点,你知道?
06:02
And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,
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我的儿子,在北京学习的最小的那一个。
06:04
in China, he got a long-term perspective.
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在中国,他有一个长期的观点。
06:08
Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,
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而在谷歌工作的大儿子,
06:10
he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
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他得在一季度,或半年里开发成功。
06:14
Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
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或者谷歌是十分大方的,所以他可以有一年或两年。
06:17
But in China they look generation after generation
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但是在中国,你看的是一代又一代的时间
06:19
because they remember
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因为他们记得
06:22
the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,
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那100年十分尴尬的历史,
06:24
when they went backwards.
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那时间他们向后退了。
06:26
And then they would remember the first part
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而且他们也记得最后一个世纪的
06:29
of last century, which was really bad,
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开端是十分不好的。
06:32
and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.
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我们把这叫做大跃进。
06:35
But this was 1963.
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但是在1963年。
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,
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毛泽东终于把健康带入了中国。
06:41
and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started
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然后就去世了。然后是邓小平开始
06:43
this amazing move forward.
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了这奇妙的进步。
06:45
Isn't it strange to see that the United States
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难道这不很奇怪吗?看到美国是
06:47
first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?
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先开始增加经济,然后慢慢的变富有。
06:51
Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,
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然而中国则先在很早就变的很健康。
06:54
because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,
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因为他们应用了教育的知识,营养,
06:58
and then also benefits of penicillin
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他们也同时使用了青霉素
07:01
and vaccines and family planning.
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和疫苗,和家庭计划。
07:03
And Asia could have social development
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这样亚洲是先有的社会发展
07:06
before they got the economic development.
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后有了经济发展。
07:09
So to me, as a public health professor,
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所以对我来说,一个公共健康教授,
07:11
it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
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是不会对这些国家发展的这么快而感到奇怪的。
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
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因为你所看到的这里和这里
07:17
is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,
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就是托马斯弗里德曼的平面世界。
07:20
isn't it.
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不是吗?
07:22
It's not really, really flat.
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这不是真的真的很平。
07:24
But the middle income countries --
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但是那些中等收入国家,
07:26
and this is where I suggest to my students,
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这里我就会向我的同学建议
07:28
stop using the concept "developing world."
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停止使用“发展中国家”这个概念。
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing world
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因为毕竟,谈论发展中国家
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
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就好像是把美国历史分两个部分。
07:38
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,
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而最后的一个部分是关于这个总统,奥巴马总统。
07:42
and the other is about the past,
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另一个部分则是有关过去。
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington
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当你把从华盛顿时代
07:46
to Eisenhower.
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到艾森豪威尔时代都包括进来。
07:48
Because Washington to Eisenhower,
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因为从华盛顿到艾森豪威尔
07:50
that is what we find in the developing world.
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这就是我们所谓的发展中国家
07:52
We could actually go to Mayflower
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我们其实可以从五月花时代
07:54
to Eisenhower,
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到艾森豪威尔,
07:56
and that would be put together into a developing world,
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那就是整个的发展中世界。
07:59
which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,
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那就是正确的以一个十分奇妙的方法去发展城市。
08:02
which have great entrepreneurs,
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那也有企业家,
08:04
but also have the collapsing countries.
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但是同时我们也有垮掉的国家。
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
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所以我们怎样才能更好的了解这个呢?
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could
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恩,其中一个是看看我们能否
08:13
look at income distribution.
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观察收入的分布。
08:15
This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,
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这是世界人口的收入分布,
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food to eat.
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从1美元开始。这是你开始有食物可以吃的地方。
08:21
These people go to bed hungry.
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这些人是饿着睡觉的。
08:23
And this is the number of people.
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这是这些人的数量。
08:25
This is $10, whether you have a public or a private
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这是10美元,不管你有公共的或
08:27
health service system. This is where you can
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私人的健康系统。这是你可以开始
08:29
provide health service for your family and school for your children,
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为你的家庭提供将康服务,为你的儿童提供学校的地方。
08:32
and this is OECD countries:
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这是经合组织国家。
08:34
Green, Latin America, East Europe.
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绿色的是,拉丁美洲,东欧。
08:36
This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
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这是东亚。南亚是这个浅蓝色。
08:40
And this is how the world changed.
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而这是世界上这样变化的。
08:43
It changed like this.
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它像这样发生了变化。
08:45
Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions
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你可以看到是怎样增长的吗?看到那数以万亿的收入
08:48
and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
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是这样进入到贫穷的亚洲的?
08:51
And it goes over here?
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然后它移到这里。
08:53
And I come now, into projections,
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这里是我对未来的预测。
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --
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不过我得在莱曼兄弟这里停下来,因为...
08:58
(Laughter)
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(笑)
09:01
that's where the projections are not valid any longer.
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因为这些预测都不准了。
09:03
Probably the world will do this.
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大概世界会这样做。
09:05
and then it will continue forward like this.
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然后它会持续像这样。
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen,
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但是多多少少会这样。
09:10
and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
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而且我们有一个不能去分开看的世界。
09:15
We have the high income countries here,
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我们在这有高收入国家,
09:17
with the United States as a leading power;
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美国作为领队。
09:20
we have the emerging economies in the middle,
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我们在中间有新兴经济体,
09:23
which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;
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那给我们提供了救助的基础。
09:25
and we have the low income countries here.
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然后我们在这里有低收入的国家。
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,
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对,我们的救助的钱的确就是从这些地方来的。
09:31
they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
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在过去十年里,他们一直都在储蓄。
09:33
And here we have the low income countries
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而这里我们有低收入国家,
09:35
where entrepreneurs are.
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那里聚集着大量的企业家。
09:37
And here we have the countries in collapse and war,
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而这里是因战争而垮掉的国家,
09:40
like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
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像阿富汗,索马里,部分刚果,达尔富尔。
09:45
We have all this at the same time.
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这些都发生在同一时间。
09:47
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened
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那也就是为什么去描述发展中国家发生了什么
09:49
in the developing world.
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是如此的困难。
09:51
Because it's so different, what has happened there.
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因为那里所发生的非常不同。
09:53
And that's why I suggest
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那也是我为什么会建议
09:55
a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
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我们用另一种态度去看待它。
09:58
And you have huge differences within countries also.
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我们在国家间也有巨大的不同。
10:02
I heard that your departments here were by regions.
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我听说你们的部门是按地区分的。
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,
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这里你有撒哈拉以南非洲,南亚,
10:08
East Asia, Arab states,
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东亚,阿拉伯国家,
10:10
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
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东欧,拉丁美洲和经合组织。
10:12
And on this axis, GDP.
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这里是代表GDP的坐标轴。
10:14
And on this, heath, child survival,
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这里是健康和儿童存活率。
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
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而且这一点也不让人吃惊
10:18
that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
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在非洲,沙哈拉南部,在底端。
10:21
But when I split it, when I split it
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但是当我把他们分开,当我把他们分成
10:23
into country bubbles,
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国家的气泡是,
10:25
the size of the bubbles here is the population.
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这里气泡的大小的人口。
10:28
Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.
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你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不一样的。
10:31
There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
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这里在撒哈拉以南非洲有很大的不同。
10:33
And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,
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当我把其他的也分开是。东亚,
10:36
Arab world.
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阿拉伯世界。
10:38
Now all your different departments.
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你现在在不同的地区都有不同。
10:40
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
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东欧,拉丁美洲,和经合组织国家。
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
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我们在这里。我们有一个连续的世界。
10:46
We cannot put it into two parts.
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我们不能分成连个部分。
10:48
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,
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这是五月花时代。这是华盛顿时代,
10:51
building, building countries.
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建造国家。
10:53
It's Lincoln here, advancing them.
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这是林肯,在升级他们。
10:57
It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
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这是艾森豪威尔将现代化带入了国家。
11:00
And then it's United States today, up here.
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然后这是今天的美国,在这里上面。
11:02
And we have countries all this way.
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我们是这样创造了国家。
11:04
Now, this is the important thing
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现在是了解世界怎样
11:07
of understanding how the world has changed.
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变化的关键。
11:11
At this point I decided to make a pause.
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在这里我觉得我需要做一个发言。
11:15
(Laughter)
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(笑)
11:17
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,
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这就是我的任务,代表这世界其他国家,
11:20
to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,
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来为美国的纳税人争取一个谢谢,
11:24
for Demographic Health Survey.
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为了人口健康调查所做的贡献。
11:26
Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.
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许多人还没有意识到 -- 不这不是玩笑。
11:29
This is very serious.
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这很严肃。
11:31
It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring
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在这25年里,依靠
11:35
during 25 years of the very good methodology
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美国的资助,我们有一个
11:38
for measuring child mortality
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非常好的测量儿童死亡率的方法,
11:40
that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.
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这让我们对世界所发生的事情有一个把握。
11:43
(Applause)
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(掌声)
11:50
And it is U.S. government at its best,
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而这个美国政府,正在做最大的努力
11:53
without advocacy, providing facts,
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没有宣传,去提供一些
11:56
that it's useful for the society.
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对社会有用的事实。
11:58
And providing data free of charge
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也在因特网上提供免费的数据
12:01
on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
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供世界享用。十分感谢你。
12:04
Quite the opposite of the World Bank,
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世界银行则是在十分的对立面,
12:06
who compiled data with government money,
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用政府和税收的钱来编译数据,
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
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然后又加入一点利润将他们出售,
12:12
in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.
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通过十分没有效率的,古滕贝格的方式。
12:15
(Applause)
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(掌声)
12:21
But the people doing that at the World Bank
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但是那些在世界银行所工作的人
12:23
are among the best in the world.
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都是世界上最优秀的。
12:25
And they are highly skilled professionals.
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他们在他们的范围内都是专家。
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies
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只是我们希望我们能升级我们的国际方案
12:31
to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.
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去以现代的方法来处理国际问题,就在我们处理的时候。
12:34
And when it comes to free data and transparency,
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当这遇到免费和透明的数据时,
12:37
United States of America is one of the best.
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美国是最好之一。
12:40
And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
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而且这不仅仅是从瑞典公共健康教授的口中说出。
12:43
(Laughter)
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(笑)
12:46
And I'm not paid to come here, no.
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我不是为钱来到这的,不是。
12:49
I would like to show you what happens with the data,
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我是想来给你们展示数据上发生了什么,
12:51
what we can show with this data.
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以及我们可以用这些数据来展示什么。
12:53
Look here. This is the world.
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看这里,这是世界。
12:55
With income down there and child mortality.
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收入在这里,然后儿童死亡率。
12:57
And what has happened in the world?
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世界发生了什么?
12:59
Since 1950, during the last 50 years
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自从1950年,到过去50年里
13:02
we have had a fall in child mortality.
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儿童死亡率有一个下降。
13:05
And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
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这是靠国家安全局才知道的。
13:07
And we had an increase in income.
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我们在收入上有一个增加。
13:09
And the blue former developing countries
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这些蓝色的发展中国家
13:11
are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
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和前工业化国家混合在一起。
13:16
We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,
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然后我们继续。但是我们这里还有,那就是,当然了
13:19
Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries
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刚果在上面这里。我们还有以前的
13:22
as we have had, always, in history.
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一些贫穷国家,在历史上。
13:26
And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today
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最底层的一亿人口,就如我们当今所听说的一样,
13:29
about a completely new approach to do it.
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急需一个新的解决方案。
13:32
And how fast has this happened?
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这一切发生得有多快呢?
13:35
Well, MDG 4.
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好吧,第4个千年发展目标。
13:37
The United States has not been so eager
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美国政府还不是那么急于
13:39
to use MDG 4.
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使用第4个千年发展目标。
13:42
But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,
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但是你们那些重要赞助商让我们可以去测量它。
13:45
because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.
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因为那是我们唯一可以测量的儿童死亡率。
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
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我们经常会说每年会下降4个百分点。
13:51
Let's see what Sweden has done.
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让我们来看看瑞典做了什么。
13:53
We used to boast about fast social progress.
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我们曾经吹嘘快速的社会进步。
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
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我们是在,1990.
13:58
1900, Sweden was there.
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1990年,瑞典在那里。
14:00
Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,
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和孟加拉国一样的儿童死亡率,1990.
14:02
though they had lower income.
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尽管他们是低收入国家。
14:04
They started very well. They used the aid well.
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他们开端不错,他们充分利用国外援助。
14:07
They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.
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他们给小孩提供疫苗。他们有更好的水源。
14:09
And they reduced child mortality,
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而且他们降低了儿童死亡率,
14:11
with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.
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以每年4.7个百分点。他们打败了瑞典。
14:14
I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
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在接下来的16年里瑞典还是一样。
14:18
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,
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第二轮,瑞典在1960
14:20
against Egypt, 1990.
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对抗1990的埃及。
14:22
Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.
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开始。再一次,美国在这里有一部分原因。
14:25
They get safe water, they get food for the poor,
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他们有更安全的水,他们给穷人提供食物。
14:29
and they get malaria eradicated.
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他们根除了疟疾。
14:31
5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
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5.5个百分点。他们比千年发展目标要快。
14:34
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.
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这是瑞典的第三个机会,对抗这里的巴西。
14:37
Brazil here has amazing social improvement
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这里的巴西在过去16年里
14:41
over the last 16 years,
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有着奇妙的社会进步.
14:43
and they go faster than Sweden.
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而且他们比瑞典要快。
14:45
This means that the world is converging.
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那就意味这世界在一体化。
14:47
The middle income countries,
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中等收入国家,
14:49
the emerging economy, they are catching up.
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那些新兴经济体,他们在赶上来。
14:51
They are moving to cities,
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他们向城市发展,
14:53
where they also get better assistance for that.
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那里他们可以等到更好的帮助。
14:55
Well the Swedish students protest at this point.
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这时瑞典人在抗议。
14:58
They say, "This is not fair,
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他们说到,“”这不公平,
15:00
because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics
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因为这些国家有疫苗和抗生素,
15:02
that were not available for Sweden.
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那时的瑞典还没有。
15:04
We have to do real-time competition."
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我们必须做一次同时间的竞赛。”
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.
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好,我这里有新加坡,我出生的那一年。
15:09
Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.
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新加坡的儿童死亡率是瑞典的两倍。
15:11
It's the most tropical country in the world,
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那是世界上最热带的国家。
15:13
a marshland on the equator.
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一个在赤道沼泽地。
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.
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开始了。他们独立花了一点时间。
15:18
But then they started to grow their economy.
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但是他们开始开展他们的经济。
15:20
And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.
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他们他们开始社会投资。他们摆脱了疟疾。
15:22
They got a magnificent health system
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他们有了一个非常起眼的健康系统
15:24
that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.
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那同时打败了美国和瑞典。
15:26
We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!
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我们从来没有想到他们会赢瑞典!
15:29
(Applause)
335
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(掌声)
15:37
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.
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这些绿色国家都在达成着千年发展计划。
15:40
These yellow are just about to be doing this.
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这些黄色的也正准备着手开始。
15:42
These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.
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这些红色的国家则没有做什么,而且他们的政策需要改善。
15:45
Not simplistic extrapolation.
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不是简单的推断。
15:48
We have to really find a way
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我们真的必须找一个能更好的
15:50
of supporting those countries in a better way.
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去支持这些国家的方法。
15:52
We have to respect the middle income countries
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我们必须去尊重这些发展中国家
15:55
on what they are doing.
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所做的事情。
15:57
And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
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我们也必须给我们的世界观有一个客观的基础。
16:00
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.
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这是人均收入,这是国家的艾滋病数。
16:03
The blue is Africa.
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蓝色的是非洲。
16:05
The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.
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气泡的大小代表着有多少人被艾滋感染。
16:08
You see the tragedy in South Africa there.
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你可以在那看到在南非的悲剧。
16:10
About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.
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大概有20%的成年人口被感染了。
16:13
And in spite of them having quite a high income,
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尽管他们有一个很高的收入
16:16
they have a huge number of HIV infected.
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他们还是有巨大的被艾滋感染数量。
16:19
But you also see that there are African countries down here.
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但你也可以看到有一些非洲国家在底下这里。
16:22
There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.
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在非洲没有所谓的大规模艾滋流行这样。
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa
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这里有个数字,非洲的5-10国家
16:29
that has the same level as Sweden and United States.
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有着和瑞典和美国同样的水平。
16:32
And there are others who are extremely high.
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而这里也有那些数目十分高的国家。
16:34
And I will show you that what has happened
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而我要来给你们看看
16:37
in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy
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非洲最好的国家之一,拥有着最活跃的经济体
16:41
in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.
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和一个非常好的治理的博茨瓦纳,所发生的一切。
16:44
They have a very high level. It's coming down.
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他们有一个十分高的感染水平。正在下降中。
16:46
But now it's not falling,
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但不是那么剧烈。
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFAR,
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因为那里,正在接受紧急计划(PEPFAR)的帮组
16:50
it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.
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正在接受治疗。所以受感染的人就不会死亡。
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy,
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就如你看到的,那并不简单。
16:56
that it is war which caused this.
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那是战争造成这个的。
16:59
Because here, in Congo, there is war.
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因为这里,在刚果,这里有战争。
17:01
And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
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这里,在赞比亚,这里有和平。
17:04
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.
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但这里没有经济。更富有的国家有更高的水平。
17:07
If I split Tanzania in its income,
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如果我把坦桑尼亚的收入分开。
17:09
the richer 20 percent in Tanzania
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坦桑尼亚更富有的20%人
17:11
has more HIV than the poorest one.
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要比贫穷的人感染更多的艾滋。
17:13
And it's really different within each country.
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而且每个国家都不一样。
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.
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看看肯尼亚的一些省份。他们也十分不同。
17:18
And this is the situation you see.
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这就是你所看到的状况。
17:21
It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,
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这不是深度贫穷。这是特殊的情况。
17:24
probably of concurrent sexual partnership
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大概是在某些国家,或国家的某些部分里
17:27
among part of the heterosexual population
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在南非或东非
17:30
in some countries, or some parts of countries,
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在异性恋人口中
17:32
in south and eastern Africa.
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多重性伴侣所造成的。
17:34
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.
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不要说是非洲。不要搞的种族问题上。
17:37
Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,
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这是地方问题。并在每个地方实行
17:41
in the way it can be done there.
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当地可以接受的预防措施。
17:43
So to just end up,
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我要这样来结尾。
17:46
there are things of suffering
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这里有我们所不知道的
17:49
in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.
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1亿正在受贫困折磨的人口。
17:52
Those who live beyond the cellphone,
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那些生活在没有手机,
17:54
those who have yet to see a computer,
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或没见过电脑,
17:56
those who have no electricity at home.
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或家里没有电能的人。
17:59
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years
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这就是叫孔佐(Konzo)的疾病,我花了20年
18:01
elucidating in Africa.
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在非洲来调查。
18:03
It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.
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这是因为在饥荒的情况下,快速处理有毒木薯根。
18:08
It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.
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这和在30年代密西西比的糙皮病相似。
18:12
It's similar to other nutritional diseases.
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这和其他的营养疾病相似。
18:15
It will never affect a rich person.
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它不会感染富有的人。
18:17
We have seen it here in Mozambique.
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我们在莫桑比克已经看到了。
18:20
This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.
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这正在莫桑比克流行着。这也在南坦桑尼亚流行着。
18:23
You never heard about the disease.
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你从来没有听过这种疾病。
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola
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但是这比伊波拉所
18:27
that has been affected by this disease.
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感染的人还要多。
18:29
Cause crippling throughout the world.
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这造成了世界各地的瘫痪。
18:31
And over the last two years,
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而在过去的两年时间里
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
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在班登达地区南端
18:35
in the southern tip of Bandundu region.
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已经有2000人已经瘫痪了。
18:37
That used to be the illegal diamond trade,
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这里原来是非法钻石交易地。
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.
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从[不清楚]统治的安哥拉地区
18:42
That has now disappeared,
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在那里现在已经消失了。
18:44
and they are now in great economic problem.
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他们现在则有一个更大的经济问题。
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
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就在一个星期前,第一次,
18:49
there were four lines on the Internet.
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这里有4条上线的因特网。
18:52
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies
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不要对新兴经济体的成就
18:55
and the great capacity
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和在中等收入国家人民的
18:58
of people in the middle income countries
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能力而疑惑,
19:00
and in peaceful low income countries.
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而在和平宁静的低收入国家中。
19:02
There is still mystery in one billion.
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这里还有在1亿人中的谜题。
19:04
And we have to have more concepts
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我们必须有着超越发展中国家和
19:06
than just developing countries and developing world.
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发展中世界的概念。
19:09
We need a new mindset. The world is converging,
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我们需要一个新的态度。世界正在融合。
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.
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但是,但是,但不是那底层的一亿。
19:15
They are still as poor as they've ever been.
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他们仍然和以前一样贫穷。
19:18
It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.
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这并不是可持续的。这也不会围绕着一个超级力量。
19:23
But you will remain
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但是你会继续扮演着
19:25
one of the most important superpowers,
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最重要的的超级力量之一。
19:28
and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.
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也是从时间上看来最有希望的超级力量,
19:31
And this institution
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而且在这种局势下
19:33
will have a very crucial role,
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将会有一个非常关键的角色,
19:35
not for United States, but for the world.
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不是美国,而是全世界。
19:37
So you have a very bad name,
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所以你们有一个十分差劲的名字,
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
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国家部门,这不是国家部门。
19:42
It's the World Department.
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这是世界部门。
19:44
And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.
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而且我们对你们给予重望。十分感谢你们。
19:46
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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