Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset

154,455 views ・ 2009-08-31

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Halei Liu 校对人员: Zachary Lin Zhao
00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset.
0
16160
4000
我会来谈谈你们的心态。
00:20
Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
1
20160
4000
看看你们的心态和我的数据是相符合的吗?
00:24
(Laughter)
2
24160
1000
(笑)
00:25
If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
3
25160
3000
如果不是,其中的一个就需要升级了,对吗?
00:28
When I talk to my students about global issues,
4
28160
4000
当我和我的学生在谈论全球问题时,
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee break,
5
32160
2000
我是在喝咖啡的时候听他们谈论的。
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
6
34160
3000
他们经常会谈论“我们”和“他们”。
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture room
7
37160
3000
然后当他们回到上课的地方的时候,
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
8
40160
2000
我问他们,“你们说‘我们’和‘他们’是什么意思”?
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.
9
42160
3000
“啊,那很简单,就是西方世界和发展中国家”,他们说到。
00:45
"We learned it in college."
10
45160
2000
“我们在大学里学到的。”
00:47
And what is the definition then? "The definition?
11
47160
2000
那定义是什么呢?“定义?
00:49
Everyone knows," they say.
12
49160
2000
每个人都知道,”他们说到,
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
13
51160
2000
但是你知道,我向这样给他们施加压力。
00:53
So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.
14
53160
2000
所以,一个女孩说到,十分聪明的,“这很简单。
00:55
Western world is a long life in a small family.
15
55160
3000
西方国家是在一个小家庭里拥有较长的寿命。
00:58
Developing world is a short life in a large family."
16
58160
3000
发展中国家是在一个大家庭里有较短的寿命。“
01:01
And I like that definition, because it enabled me
17
61160
3000
我喜欢这样的定义因为这让我可以去
01:04
to transfer their mindset
18
64160
2000
将他们的心态转换
01:06
into the dataset.
19
66160
2000
到我的数据中。
01:08
And here you have the dataset.
20
68160
2000
这里你有数据。
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
21
70160
2000
你可以看到这个坐标轴代表着
01:12
is size of family. One, two, three, four, five
22
72160
3000
家庭的大小。每个妇女有一,二,三,四,五
01:15
children per woman on this axis.
23
75160
2000
个小孩在这个坐标轴上。
01:17
And here, length of life, life expectancy,
24
77160
2000
在这里,是生命的长度,预期寿命,
01:19
30, 40, 50.
25
79160
2000
30、40、50.
01:21
Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
26
81160
4000
这就正是我的学生概念中的世界。
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom.
27
85160
2000
而这也和卧室有关。
01:27
Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,
28
87160
4000
男人和女人决定他们是否创造一个小的家庭,
01:31
and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
29
91160
3000
是否去照顾他们的孩子,以及他们的寿命长短。
01:34
It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,
30
94160
4000
是和卧室和厨房有关。如果你有肥皂,水和食物,你知道,
01:38
you can live long.
31
98160
2000
你可以活的长点。
01:40
And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --
32
100160
2000
学生们是对的。这不是世界所包括的--
01:42
the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,
33
102160
4000
世界所包括的在这里,一组在这里的国家,
01:46
which had large families and short life. Developing world.
34
106160
4000
他们有较大的家庭和较短的寿命。发展中国家。
01:50
And we had one set of countries up there
35
110160
3000
然后我们在这上面有一组国家
01:53
which was the western world.
36
113160
2000
是西方国家。
01:55
They had small families and long life.
37
115160
3000
他们有较小的家庭和较长的寿命。
01:58
And you are going to see here
38
118160
2000
然后你会看到在这里
02:00
the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
39
120160
4000
发生的奇妙的事情,那就是在这个世界上在我有生之年发生的。
02:04
Then the developing countries applied
40
124160
2000
发展中国家应用了
02:06
soap and water, vaccination.
41
126160
2000
肥皂和水,疫苗。
02:08
And all the developing world started to apply family planning.
42
128160
3000
以及所有的发展中国家都应用了家庭计划。
02:11
And partly to USA who help to provide
43
131160
2000
美国也一部分的参与帮助去提供
02:13
technical advice and investment.
44
133160
3000
技术建议和投资。
02:16
And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,
45
136160
4000
而且你可以看到世界上所有的家庭都向两个小孩移去,
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years.
46
140160
3000
也向60到70的寿命移去。
02:23
But some countries remain back in this area here.
47
143160
3000
但是有些国家还是在原来这里的地方。
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
48
146160
3000
然后你可以看到阿富汗还是在那底下。
02:29
We have Liberia. We have Congo.
49
149160
3000
我们还有黎巴嫩。有刚果。
02:32
So we have countries living there.
50
152160
2000
所以我们还有国家生活在那里。
02:34
So the problem I had
51
154160
2000
所以我的问题是
02:36
is that the worldview that my students had
52
156160
4000
我学生所有的世界观
02:40
corresponds to reality in the world
53
160160
2000
还停留在他们老师所
02:42
the year their teachers were born.
54
162160
3000
出生的年代。
02:45
(Laughter)
55
165160
3000
(笑)
02:48
(Applause)
56
168160
3000
(鼓掌)
02:51
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
57
171160
3000
当我们,实际上,我们已经在全世界展示了这个。
02:54
I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,
58
174160
3000
上个星期,我在华盛顿的世界健康会议上,
02:57
and I could see the wrong concept
59
177160
3000
而且我可以看到,甚至是在美国活跃人物上
03:00
even active people in United States had,
60
180160
3000
都有这样的错误的概念。
03:03
that they didn't realize the improvement
61
183160
3000
他们没有意识到墨西哥,中国
03:06
of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
62
186160
5000
相对与美国的进步。
03:11
Look here when I move them forward.
63
191160
2000
看这里,当我把他们向前移动时。
03:13
Here we go.
64
193160
7000
开始了。
03:20
They catch up. There's Mexico.
65
200160
3000
他们迎头赶上。这是墨西哥。
03:23
It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
66
203160
3000
在这两个社会层面是和美国一样的。
03:26
There was less than five percent
67
206160
2000
这里要注意的是,
03:28
of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.
68
208160
3000
全球健康专家中,只有少于5%的人意识到这一点。
03:31
This great nation, Mexico,
69
211160
2000
这个伟大的国家,墨西哥,
03:33
has the problem that arms are coming from North,
70
213160
3000
问题是大量武器来自北方,
03:36
across the borders, so they had to stop that,
71
216160
2000
穿越边界。所以他们必须制止这一点。
03:38
because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
72
218160
4000
因为,你知道,他们和美国有的奇怪的关系。
03:42
But if I would change this axis here,
73
222160
4000
但是如果我把坐标轴换一下,看,
03:46
I would instead put income per person.
74
226160
3000
除了这样做,这里,我会把每个人的收入放上。
03:49
Income per person. I can put that here.
75
229160
3000
人均收入。我可以放在这里。
03:52
And we will then see
76
232160
2000
然后我们会看到
03:54
a completely different picture.
77
234160
2000
一个完全不同的图片。
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching you
78
236160
2000
顺便说一下,我在教你们
03:58
how to use our website, Gapminder World,
79
238160
2000
怎么使用我们的网站,Gapminder World(代沟提醒世界)。
04:00
while I'm correcting this,
80
240160
2000
我为什么会纠正这个?
04:02
because this is a free utility on the net.
81
242160
3000
因为这是在网上的一个免费设备。
04:05
And when I now finally got it right,
82
245160
3000
而且我终于把它做对了,
04:08
I can go back 200 years in history.
83
248160
4000
我可以在历史上回去200年。
04:12
And I can find United States up there.
84
252160
4000
这样我可以在上面这里找到美国。
04:16
And I can let the other countries be shown.
85
256160
3000
而且我可以显示其他的国家。
04:19
And now I have income per person on this axis.
86
259160
3000
现在我在这个坐标轴上有人均收入。
04:22
And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.
87
262160
3000
美国每个人只有2000美元,在那时。
04:25
And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,
88
265160
4000
而且寿命的期望值是35到40年,
04:29
on par with Afghanistan today.
89
269160
2000
是和阿富汗的今天一样的。
04:31
And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
90
271160
5000
我现在马上要展示的,就是世界发生了什么。
04:36
This is instead of studying history
91
276160
2000
这不是在学习历史
04:38
for one year at university.
92
278160
2000
而是在大学里的一年。
04:40
You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.
93
280160
3000
你可以看我一分钟,然后你就会看到一切。
04:43
(Laughter)
94
283160
2000
(笑)
04:45
You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,
95
285160
5000
你可以看到这些棕色的气泡,是西欧,
04:50
and the yellow one, which is the United States,
96
290160
3000
这些黄色的是美国,
04:53
they get richer and richer and also
97
293160
2000
他们是怎样变的越来越富有,
04:55
start to get healthier and healthier.
98
295160
2000
同时是这样变的越来越健康。
04:57
And this is now 100 years ago,
99
297160
2000
现在这个是100年前
04:59
where the rest of the world remains behind.
100
299160
3000
当世界其他的国家都还是落后时。
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza.
101
302160
5000
我们开始了。那就是大流感。
05:07
That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?
102
307160
3000
那就是我们为什么会这么害怕流感,对吗?
05:10
It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
103
310160
3000
我们仍然记得。寿命的缩短。
05:13
And then we come up. Not until
104
313160
3000
然后我们又上升了。直到
05:16
independence started.
105
316160
2000
我们独立。
05:18
Look here You have China over there,
106
318160
2000
看看你在这里有中国,
05:20
you have India over there,
107
320160
2000
在那里有印度,
05:22
and this is what has happened.
108
322160
8000
这就是所发生的。
05:30
Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?
109
330160
3000
你可以注意到,我们在这上面有墨西哥。
05:33
Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,
110
333160
2000
墨西哥和美国不是完全一样的。
05:35
but they are quite close.
111
335160
2000
但是他们是十分接近。
05:37
And especially, it's interesting to see
112
337160
2000
而且在这200年里去看看
05:39
China and the United States
113
339160
2000
美国和中国
05:41
during 200 years,
114
341160
3000
是十分有趣的。
05:44
because I have my oldest son now working for Google,
115
344160
2000
因为现在我的大儿子在谷歌工作,
05:46
after Google acquired this software.
116
346160
3000
当谷歌收购了这款软件后。
05:49
Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet
117
349160
3000
因为这时间上是用了童工。我的儿子和妻子在衣橱里
05:52
for many years and developed this.
118
352160
2000
花了很多时间来开发这个。
05:54
And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
119
354160
4000
而我的小儿子,在北京学习中文。
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?
120
358160
4000
所以我有他们的两个不同的观点,你知道?
06:02
And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,
121
362160
2000
我的儿子,在北京学习的最小的那一个。
06:04
in China, he got a long-term perspective.
122
364160
4000
在中国,他有一个长期的观点。
06:08
Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,
123
368160
2000
而在谷歌工作的大儿子,
06:10
he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
124
370160
4000
他得在一季度,或半年里开发成功。
06:14
Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
125
374160
3000
或者谷歌是十分大方的,所以他可以有一年或两年。
06:17
But in China they look generation after generation
126
377160
2000
但是在中国,你看的是一代又一代的时间
06:19
because they remember
127
379160
3000
因为他们记得
06:22
the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,
128
382160
2000
那100年十分尴尬的历史,
06:24
when they went backwards.
129
384160
2000
那时间他们向后退了。
06:26
And then they would remember the first part
130
386160
3000
而且他们也记得最后一个世纪的
06:29
of last century, which was really bad,
131
389160
3000
开端是十分不好的。
06:32
and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.
132
392160
3000
我们把这叫做大跃进。
06:35
But this was 1963.
133
395160
2000
但是在1963年。
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,
134
397160
4000
毛泽东终于把健康带入了中国。
06:41
and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started
135
401160
2000
然后就去世了。然后是邓小平开始
06:43
this amazing move forward.
136
403160
2000
了这奇妙的进步。
06:45
Isn't it strange to see that the United States
137
405160
2000
难道这不很奇怪吗?看到美国是
06:47
first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?
138
407160
4000
先开始增加经济,然后慢慢的变富有。
06:51
Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,
139
411160
3000
然而中国则先在很早就变的很健康。
06:54
because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,
140
414160
4000
因为他们应用了教育的知识,营养,
06:58
and then also benefits of penicillin
141
418160
3000
他们也同时使用了青霉素
07:01
and vaccines and family planning.
142
421160
2000
和疫苗,和家庭计划。
07:03
And Asia could have social development
143
423160
3000
这样亚洲是先有的社会发展
07:06
before they got the economic development.
144
426160
3000
后有了经济发展。
07:09
So to me, as a public health professor,
145
429160
2000
所以对我来说,一个公共健康教授,
07:11
it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
146
431160
4000
是不会对这些国家发展的这么快而感到奇怪的。
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
147
435160
2000
因为你所看到的这里和这里
07:17
is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,
148
437160
3000
就是托马斯弗里德曼的平面世界。
07:20
isn't it.
149
440160
2000
不是吗?
07:22
It's not really, really flat.
150
442160
2000
这不是真的真的很平。
07:24
But the middle income countries --
151
444160
2000
但是那些中等收入国家,
07:26
and this is where I suggest to my students,
152
446160
2000
这里我就会向我的同学建议
07:28
stop using the concept "developing world."
153
448160
3000
停止使用“发展中国家”这个概念。
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing world
154
451160
3000
因为毕竟,谈论发展中国家
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
155
454160
4000
就好像是把美国历史分两个部分。
07:38
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,
156
458160
4000
而最后的一个部分是关于这个总统,奥巴马总统。
07:42
and the other is about the past,
157
462160
2000
另一个部分则是有关过去。
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington
158
464160
2000
当你把从华盛顿时代
07:46
to Eisenhower.
159
466160
2000
到艾森豪威尔时代都包括进来。
07:48
Because Washington to Eisenhower,
160
468160
2000
因为从华盛顿到艾森豪威尔
07:50
that is what we find in the developing world.
161
470160
2000
这就是我们所谓的发展中国家
07:52
We could actually go to Mayflower
162
472160
2000
我们其实可以从五月花时代
07:54
to Eisenhower,
163
474160
2000
到艾森豪威尔,
07:56
and that would be put together into a developing world,
164
476160
3000
那就是整个的发展中世界。
07:59
which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,
165
479160
3000
那就是正确的以一个十分奇妙的方法去发展城市。
08:02
which have great entrepreneurs,
166
482160
2000
那也有企业家,
08:04
but also have the collapsing countries.
167
484160
3000
但是同时我们也有垮掉的国家。
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
168
487160
3000
所以我们怎样才能更好的了解这个呢?
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could
169
490160
3000
恩,其中一个是看看我们能否
08:13
look at income distribution.
170
493160
2000
观察收入的分布。
08:15
This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,
171
495160
3000
这是世界人口的收入分布,
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food to eat.
172
498160
3000
从1美元开始。这是你开始有食物可以吃的地方。
08:21
These people go to bed hungry.
173
501160
2000
这些人是饿着睡觉的。
08:23
And this is the number of people.
174
503160
2000
这是这些人的数量。
08:25
This is $10, whether you have a public or a private
175
505160
2000
这是10美元,不管你有公共的或
08:27
health service system. This is where you can
176
507160
2000
私人的健康系统。这是你可以开始
08:29
provide health service for your family and school for your children,
177
509160
3000
为你的家庭提供将康服务,为你的儿童提供学校的地方。
08:32
and this is OECD countries:
178
512160
2000
这是经合组织国家。
08:34
Green, Latin America, East Europe.
179
514160
2000
绿色的是,拉丁美洲,东欧。
08:36
This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
180
516160
4000
这是东亚。南亚是这个浅蓝色。
08:40
And this is how the world changed.
181
520160
3000
而这是世界上这样变化的。
08:43
It changed like this.
182
523160
2000
它像这样发生了变化。
08:45
Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions
183
525160
3000
你可以看到是怎样增长的吗?看到那数以万亿的收入
08:48
and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
184
528160
3000
是这样进入到贫穷的亚洲的?
08:51
And it goes over here?
185
531160
2000
然后它移到这里。
08:53
And I come now, into projections,
186
533160
2000
这里是我对未来的预测。
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --
187
535160
3000
不过我得在莱曼兄弟这里停下来,因为...
08:58
(Laughter)
188
538160
3000
(笑)
09:01
that's where the projections are not valid any longer.
189
541160
2000
因为这些预测都不准了。
09:03
Probably the world will do this.
190
543160
2000
大概世界会这样做。
09:05
and then it will continue forward like this.
191
545160
3000
然后它会持续像这样。
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen,
192
548160
2000
但是多多少少会这样。
09:10
and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
193
550160
5000
而且我们有一个不能去分开看的世界。
09:15
We have the high income countries here,
194
555160
2000
我们在这有高收入国家,
09:17
with the United States as a leading power;
195
557160
3000
美国作为领队。
09:20
we have the emerging economies in the middle,
196
560160
3000
我们在中间有新兴经济体,
09:23
which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;
197
563160
2000
那给我们提供了救助的基础。
09:25
and we have the low income countries here.
198
565160
3000
然后我们在这里有低收入的国家。
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,
199
568160
3000
对,我们的救助的钱的确就是从这些地方来的。
09:31
they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
200
571160
2000
在过去十年里,他们一直都在储蓄。
09:33
And here we have the low income countries
201
573160
2000
而这里我们有低收入国家,
09:35
where entrepreneurs are.
202
575160
2000
那里聚集着大量的企业家。
09:37
And here we have the countries in collapse and war,
203
577160
3000
而这里是因战争而垮掉的国家,
09:40
like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
204
580160
5000
像阿富汗,索马里,部分刚果,达尔富尔。
09:45
We have all this at the same time.
205
585160
2000
这些都发生在同一时间。
09:47
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened
206
587160
2000
那也就是为什么去描述发展中国家发生了什么
09:49
in the developing world.
207
589160
2000
是如此的困难。
09:51
Because it's so different, what has happened there.
208
591160
2000
因为那里所发生的非常不同。
09:53
And that's why I suggest
209
593160
2000
那也是我为什么会建议
09:55
a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
210
595160
3000
我们用另一种态度去看待它。
09:58
And you have huge differences within countries also.
211
598160
4000
我们在国家间也有巨大的不同。
10:02
I heard that your departments here were by regions.
212
602160
3000
我听说你们的部门是按地区分的。
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,
213
605160
3000
这里你有撒哈拉以南非洲,南亚,
10:08
East Asia, Arab states,
214
608160
2000
东亚,阿拉伯国家,
10:10
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
215
610160
2000
东欧,拉丁美洲和经合组织。
10:12
And on this axis, GDP.
216
612160
2000
这里是代表GDP的坐标轴。
10:14
And on this, heath, child survival,
217
614160
2000
这里是健康和儿童存活率。
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
218
616160
2000
而且这一点也不让人吃惊
10:18
that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
219
618160
3000
在非洲,沙哈拉南部,在底端。
10:21
But when I split it, when I split it
220
621160
2000
但是当我把他们分开,当我把他们分成
10:23
into country bubbles,
221
623160
2000
国家的气泡是,
10:25
the size of the bubbles here is the population.
222
625160
3000
这里气泡的大小的人口。
10:28
Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.
223
628160
3000
你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不一样的。
10:31
There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
224
631160
2000
这里在撒哈拉以南非洲有很大的不同。
10:33
And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,
225
633160
3000
当我把其他的也分开是。东亚,
10:36
Arab world.
226
636160
2000
阿拉伯世界。
10:38
Now all your different departments.
227
638160
2000
你现在在不同的地区都有不同。
10:40
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
228
640160
3000
东欧,拉丁美洲,和经合组织国家。
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
229
643160
3000
我们在这里。我们有一个连续的世界。
10:46
We cannot put it into two parts.
230
646160
2000
我们不能分成连个部分。
10:48
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,
231
648160
3000
这是五月花时代。这是华盛顿时代,
10:51
building, building countries.
232
651160
2000
建造国家。
10:53
It's Lincoln here, advancing them.
233
653160
4000
这是林肯,在升级他们。
10:57
It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
234
657160
3000
这是艾森豪威尔将现代化带入了国家。
11:00
And then it's United States today, up here.
235
660160
2000
然后这是今天的美国,在这里上面。
11:02
And we have countries all this way.
236
662160
2000
我们是这样创造了国家。
11:04
Now, this is the important thing
237
664160
3000
现在是了解世界怎样
11:07
of understanding how the world has changed.
238
667160
4000
变化的关键。
11:11
At this point I decided to make a pause.
239
671160
4000
在这里我觉得我需要做一个发言。
11:15
(Laughter)
240
675160
2000
(笑)
11:17
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,
241
677160
3000
这就是我的任务,代表这世界其他国家,
11:20
to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,
242
680160
4000
来为美国的纳税人争取一个谢谢,
11:24
for Demographic Health Survey.
243
684160
2000
为了人口健康调查所做的贡献。
11:26
Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.
244
686160
3000
许多人还没有意识到 -- 不这不是玩笑。
11:29
This is very serious.
245
689160
2000
这很严肃。
11:31
It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring
246
691160
4000
在这25年里,依靠
11:35
during 25 years of the very good methodology
247
695160
3000
美国的资助,我们有一个
11:38
for measuring child mortality
248
698160
2000
非常好的测量儿童死亡率的方法,
11:40
that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.
249
700160
3000
这让我们对世界所发生的事情有一个把握。
11:43
(Applause)
250
703160
7000
(掌声)
11:50
And it is U.S. government at its best,
251
710160
3000
而这个美国政府,正在做最大的努力
11:53
without advocacy, providing facts,
252
713160
3000
没有宣传,去提供一些
11:56
that it's useful for the society.
253
716160
2000
对社会有用的事实。
11:58
And providing data free of charge
254
718160
3000
也在因特网上提供免费的数据
12:01
on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
255
721160
3000
供世界享用。十分感谢你。
12:04
Quite the opposite of the World Bank,
256
724160
2000
世界银行则是在十分的对立面,
12:06
who compiled data with government money,
257
726160
3000
用政府和税收的钱来编译数据,
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
258
729160
3000
然后又加入一点利润将他们出售,
12:12
in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.
259
732160
3000
通过十分没有效率的,古滕贝格的方式。
12:15
(Applause)
260
735160
6000
(掌声)
12:21
But the people doing that at the World Bank
261
741160
2000
但是那些在世界银行所工作的人
12:23
are among the best in the world.
262
743160
2000
都是世界上最优秀的。
12:25
And they are highly skilled professionals.
263
745160
2000
他们在他们的范围内都是专家。
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies
264
747160
4000
只是我们希望我们能升级我们的国际方案
12:31
to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.
265
751160
3000
去以现代的方法来处理国际问题,就在我们处理的时候。
12:34
And when it comes to free data and transparency,
266
754160
3000
当这遇到免费和透明的数据时,
12:37
United States of America is one of the best.
267
757160
3000
美国是最好之一。
12:40
And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
268
760160
3000
而且这不仅仅是从瑞典公共健康教授的口中说出。
12:43
(Laughter)
269
763160
3000
(笑)
12:46
And I'm not paid to come here, no.
270
766160
3000
我不是为钱来到这的,不是。
12:49
I would like to show you what happens with the data,
271
769160
2000
我是想来给你们展示数据上发生了什么,
12:51
what we can show with this data.
272
771160
2000
以及我们可以用这些数据来展示什么。
12:53
Look here. This is the world.
273
773160
2000
看这里,这是世界。
12:55
With income down there and child mortality.
274
775160
2000
收入在这里,然后儿童死亡率。
12:57
And what has happened in the world?
275
777160
2000
世界发生了什么?
12:59
Since 1950, during the last 50 years
276
779160
3000
自从1950年,到过去50年里
13:02
we have had a fall in child mortality.
277
782160
3000
儿童死亡率有一个下降。
13:05
And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
278
785160
2000
这是靠国家安全局才知道的。
13:07
And we had an increase in income.
279
787160
2000
我们在收入上有一个增加。
13:09
And the blue former developing countries
280
789160
2000
这些蓝色的发展中国家
13:11
are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
281
791160
5000
和前工业化国家混合在一起。
13:16
We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,
282
796160
3000
然后我们继续。但是我们这里还有,那就是,当然了
13:19
Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries
283
799160
3000
刚果在上面这里。我们还有以前的
13:22
as we have had, always, in history.
284
802160
4000
一些贫穷国家,在历史上。
13:26
And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today
285
806160
3000
最底层的一亿人口,就如我们当今所听说的一样,
13:29
about a completely new approach to do it.
286
809160
3000
急需一个新的解决方案。
13:32
And how fast has this happened?
287
812160
3000
这一切发生得有多快呢?
13:35
Well, MDG 4.
288
815160
2000
好吧,第4个千年发展目标。
13:37
The United States has not been so eager
289
817160
2000
美国政府还不是那么急于
13:39
to use MDG 4.
290
819160
3000
使用第4个千年发展目标。
13:42
But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,
291
822160
3000
但是你们那些重要赞助商让我们可以去测量它。
13:45
because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.
292
825160
3000
因为那是我们唯一可以测量的儿童死亡率。
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
293
828160
3000
我们经常会说每年会下降4个百分点。
13:51
Let's see what Sweden has done.
294
831160
2000
让我们来看看瑞典做了什么。
13:53
We used to boast about fast social progress.
295
833160
3000
我们曾经吹嘘快速的社会进步。
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
296
836160
2000
我们是在,1990.
13:58
1900, Sweden was there.
297
838160
2000
1990年,瑞典在那里。
14:00
Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,
298
840160
2000
和孟加拉国一样的儿童死亡率,1990.
14:02
though they had lower income.
299
842160
2000
尽管他们是低收入国家。
14:04
They started very well. They used the aid well.
300
844160
3000
他们开端不错,他们充分利用国外援助。
14:07
They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.
301
847160
2000
他们给小孩提供疫苗。他们有更好的水源。
14:09
And they reduced child mortality,
302
849160
2000
而且他们降低了儿童死亡率,
14:11
with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.
303
851160
3000
以每年4.7个百分点。他们打败了瑞典。
14:14
I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
304
854160
4000
在接下来的16年里瑞典还是一样。
14:18
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,
305
858160
2000
第二轮,瑞典在1960
14:20
against Egypt, 1990.
306
860160
2000
对抗1990的埃及。
14:22
Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.
307
862160
3000
开始。再一次,美国在这里有一部分原因。
14:25
They get safe water, they get food for the poor,
308
865160
4000
他们有更安全的水,他们给穷人提供食物。
14:29
and they get malaria eradicated.
309
869160
2000
他们根除了疟疾。
14:31
5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
310
871160
3000
5.5个百分点。他们比千年发展目标要快。
14:34
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.
311
874160
3000
这是瑞典的第三个机会,对抗这里的巴西。
14:37
Brazil here has amazing social improvement
312
877160
4000
这里的巴西在过去16年里
14:41
over the last 16 years,
313
881160
2000
有着奇妙的社会进步.
14:43
and they go faster than Sweden.
314
883160
2000
而且他们比瑞典要快。
14:45
This means that the world is converging.
315
885160
2000
那就意味这世界在一体化。
14:47
The middle income countries,
316
887160
2000
中等收入国家,
14:49
the emerging economy, they are catching up.
317
889160
2000
那些新兴经济体,他们在赶上来。
14:51
They are moving to cities,
318
891160
2000
他们向城市发展,
14:53
where they also get better assistance for that.
319
893160
2000
那里他们可以等到更好的帮助。
14:55
Well the Swedish students protest at this point.
320
895160
3000
这时瑞典人在抗议。
14:58
They say, "This is not fair,
321
898160
2000
他们说到,“”这不公平,
15:00
because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics
322
900160
2000
因为这些国家有疫苗和抗生素,
15:02
that were not available for Sweden.
323
902160
2000
那时的瑞典还没有。
15:04
We have to do real-time competition."
324
904160
2000
我们必须做一次同时间的竞赛。”
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.
325
906160
3000
好,我这里有新加坡,我出生的那一年。
15:09
Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.
326
909160
2000
新加坡的儿童死亡率是瑞典的两倍。
15:11
It's the most tropical country in the world,
327
911160
2000
那是世界上最热带的国家。
15:13
a marshland on the equator.
328
913160
2000
一个在赤道沼泽地。
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.
329
915160
3000
开始了。他们独立花了一点时间。
15:18
But then they started to grow their economy.
330
918160
2000
但是他们开始开展他们的经济。
15:20
And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.
331
920160
2000
他们他们开始社会投资。他们摆脱了疟疾。
15:22
They got a magnificent health system
332
922160
2000
他们有了一个非常起眼的健康系统
15:24
that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.
333
924160
2000
那同时打败了美国和瑞典。
15:26
We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!
334
926160
3000
我们从来没有想到他们会赢瑞典!
15:29
(Applause)
335
929160
8000
(掌声)
15:37
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.
336
937160
3000
这些绿色国家都在达成着千年发展计划。
15:40
These yellow are just about to be doing this.
337
940160
2000
这些黄色的也正准备着手开始。
15:42
These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.
338
942160
3000
这些红色的国家则没有做什么,而且他们的政策需要改善。
15:45
Not simplistic extrapolation.
339
945160
3000
不是简单的推断。
15:48
We have to really find a way
340
948160
2000
我们真的必须找一个能更好的
15:50
of supporting those countries in a better way.
341
950160
2000
去支持这些国家的方法。
15:52
We have to respect the middle income countries
342
952160
3000
我们必须去尊重这些发展中国家
15:55
on what they are doing.
343
955160
2000
所做的事情。
15:57
And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
344
957160
3000
我们也必须给我们的世界观有一个客观的基础。
16:00
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.
345
960160
3000
这是人均收入,这是国家的艾滋病数。
16:03
The blue is Africa.
346
963160
2000
蓝色的是非洲。
16:05
The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.
347
965160
3000
气泡的大小代表着有多少人被艾滋感染。
16:08
You see the tragedy in South Africa there.
348
968160
2000
你可以在那看到在南非的悲剧。
16:10
About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.
349
970160
3000
大概有20%的成年人口被感染了。
16:13
And in spite of them having quite a high income,
350
973160
3000
尽管他们有一个很高的收入
16:16
they have a huge number of HIV infected.
351
976160
3000
他们还是有巨大的被艾滋感染数量。
16:19
But you also see that there are African countries down here.
352
979160
3000
但你也可以看到有一些非洲国家在底下这里。
16:22
There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.
353
982160
4000
在非洲没有所谓的大规模艾滋流行这样。
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa
354
986160
3000
这里有个数字,非洲的5-10国家
16:29
that has the same level as Sweden and United States.
355
989160
3000
有着和瑞典和美国同样的水平。
16:32
And there are others who are extremely high.
356
992160
2000
而这里也有那些数目十分高的国家。
16:34
And I will show you that what has happened
357
994160
3000
而我要来给你们看看
16:37
in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy
358
997160
4000
非洲最好的国家之一,拥有着最活跃的经济体
16:41
in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.
359
1001160
3000
和一个非常好的治理的博茨瓦纳,所发生的一切。
16:44
They have a very high level. It's coming down.
360
1004160
2000
他们有一个十分高的感染水平。正在下降中。
16:46
But now it's not falling,
361
1006160
2000
但不是那么剧烈。
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFAR,
362
1008160
2000
因为那里,正在接受紧急计划(PEPFAR)的帮组
16:50
it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.
363
1010160
3000
正在接受治疗。所以受感染的人就不会死亡。
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy,
364
1013160
3000
就如你看到的,那并不简单。
16:56
that it is war which caused this.
365
1016160
3000
那是战争造成这个的。
16:59
Because here, in Congo, there is war.
366
1019160
2000
因为这里,在刚果,这里有战争。
17:01
And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
367
1021160
3000
这里,在赞比亚,这里有和平。
17:04
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.
368
1024160
3000
但这里没有经济。更富有的国家有更高的水平。
17:07
If I split Tanzania in its income,
369
1027160
2000
如果我把坦桑尼亚的收入分开。
17:09
the richer 20 percent in Tanzania
370
1029160
2000
坦桑尼亚更富有的20%人
17:11
has more HIV than the poorest one.
371
1031160
2000
要比贫穷的人感染更多的艾滋。
17:13
And it's really different within each country.
372
1033160
3000
而且每个国家都不一样。
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.
373
1036160
2000
看看肯尼亚的一些省份。他们也十分不同。
17:18
And this is the situation you see.
374
1038160
3000
这就是你所看到的状况。
17:21
It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,
375
1041160
3000
这不是深度贫穷。这是特殊的情况。
17:24
probably of concurrent sexual partnership
376
1044160
3000
大概是在某些国家,或国家的某些部分里
17:27
among part of the heterosexual population
377
1047160
3000
在南非或东非
17:30
in some countries, or some parts of countries,
378
1050160
2000
在异性恋人口中
17:32
in south and eastern Africa.
379
1052160
2000
多重性伴侣所造成的。
17:34
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.
380
1054160
3000
不要说是非洲。不要搞的种族问题上。
17:37
Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,
381
1057160
4000
这是地方问题。并在每个地方实行
17:41
in the way it can be done there.
382
1061160
2000
当地可以接受的预防措施。
17:43
So to just end up,
383
1063160
3000
我要这样来结尾。
17:46
there are things of suffering
384
1066160
3000
这里有我们所不知道的
17:49
in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.
385
1069160
3000
1亿正在受贫困折磨的人口。
17:52
Those who live beyond the cellphone,
386
1072160
2000
那些生活在没有手机,
17:54
those who have yet to see a computer,
387
1074160
2000
或没见过电脑,
17:56
those who have no electricity at home.
388
1076160
3000
或家里没有电能的人。
17:59
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years
389
1079160
2000
这就是叫孔佐(Konzo)的疾病,我花了20年
18:01
elucidating in Africa.
390
1081160
2000
在非洲来调查。
18:03
It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.
391
1083160
5000
这是因为在饥荒的情况下,快速处理有毒木薯根。
18:08
It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.
392
1088160
4000
这和在30年代密西西比的糙皮病相似。
18:12
It's similar to other nutritional diseases.
393
1092160
3000
这和其他的营养疾病相似。
18:15
It will never affect a rich person.
394
1095160
2000
它不会感染富有的人。
18:17
We have seen it here in Mozambique.
395
1097160
3000
我们在莫桑比克已经看到了。
18:20
This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.
396
1100160
3000
这正在莫桑比克流行着。这也在南坦桑尼亚流行着。
18:23
You never heard about the disease.
397
1103160
2000
你从来没有听过这种疾病。
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola
398
1105160
2000
但是这比伊波拉所
18:27
that has been affected by this disease.
399
1107160
2000
感染的人还要多。
18:29
Cause crippling throughout the world.
400
1109160
2000
这造成了世界各地的瘫痪。
18:31
And over the last two years,
401
1111160
2000
而在过去的两年时间里
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
402
1113160
2000
在班登达地区南端
18:35
in the southern tip of Bandundu region.
403
1115160
2000
已经有2000人已经瘫痪了。
18:37
That used to be the illegal diamond trade,
404
1117160
2000
这里原来是非法钻石交易地。
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.
405
1119160
3000
从[不清楚]统治的安哥拉地区
18:42
That has now disappeared,
406
1122160
2000
在那里现在已经消失了。
18:44
and they are now in great economic problem.
407
1124160
2000
他们现在则有一个更大的经济问题。
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
408
1126160
3000
就在一个星期前,第一次,
18:49
there were four lines on the Internet.
409
1129160
3000
这里有4条上线的因特网。
18:52
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies
410
1132160
3000
不要对新兴经济体的成就
18:55
and the great capacity
411
1135160
3000
和在中等收入国家人民的
18:58
of people in the middle income countries
412
1138160
2000
能力而疑惑,
19:00
and in peaceful low income countries.
413
1140160
2000
而在和平宁静的低收入国家中。
19:02
There is still mystery in one billion.
414
1142160
2000
这里还有在1亿人中的谜题。
19:04
And we have to have more concepts
415
1144160
2000
我们必须有着超越发展中国家和
19:06
than just developing countries and developing world.
416
1146160
3000
发展中世界的概念。
19:09
We need a new mindset. The world is converging,
417
1149160
3000
我们需要一个新的态度。世界正在融合。
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.
418
1152160
3000
但是,但是,但不是那底层的一亿。
19:15
They are still as poor as they've ever been.
419
1155160
3000
他们仍然和以前一样贫穷。
19:18
It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.
420
1158160
5000
这并不是可持续的。这也不会围绕着一个超级力量。
19:23
But you will remain
421
1163160
2000
但是你会继续扮演着
19:25
one of the most important superpowers,
422
1165160
3000
最重要的的超级力量之一。
19:28
and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.
423
1168160
3000
也是从时间上看来最有希望的超级力量,
19:31
And this institution
424
1171160
2000
而且在这种局势下
19:33
will have a very crucial role,
425
1173160
2000
将会有一个非常关键的角色,
19:35
not for United States, but for the world.
426
1175160
2000
不是美国,而是全世界。
19:37
So you have a very bad name,
427
1177160
3000
所以你们有一个十分差劲的名字,
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
428
1180160
2000
国家部门,这不是国家部门。
19:42
It's the World Department.
429
1182160
2000
这是世界部门。
19:44
And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.
430
1184160
2000
而且我们对你们给予重望。十分感谢你们。
19:46
(Applause)
431
1186160
5000
(掌声)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7