Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

Prevodilac: Marija Stepanovic Lektor: Milan Jaćević

It's the Second World War.

U toku je Drugi svetski rat,

A German prison camp.

u nemačkom koncentracionom logoru

And this man,

i ovaj čovek,

Archie Cochrane,

Arči Kokran,

is a prisoner of war and a doctor,

je ratni zarobljenik i lekar,

and he has a problem.

i on ima problem.

The problem is that the men under his care

Njegov problem je što ljudi o kojima on brine

are suffering

pate od

from an excruciating and debilitating condition

nepodnošljive i iscrpljujuće bolesti

that Archie doesn't really understand.

koju Arči ne razume.

The symptoms

Simptomi su

are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.

užasno nagomilavanje tečnosti ispod kože.

But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.

On ne zna da li je u pitanju neka infekcija ili je to usled neuhranjenosti.

He doesn't know how to cure it.

Ne zna kako da je izleči.

And he's operating in a hostile environment.

A radi u neprijateljskom okruženju.

And people do terrible things in wars.

Ljudi u ratu čine strahovite stvari.

The German camp guards, they've got bored.

Nemačkim stražarima postalo je dosadno.

They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random

Počeli su nasumično da pucaju po logoru

for fun.

iz zabave.

On one particular occasion,

Jednom prilikom,

one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory

jedan od stražara ubacio je granatu u zatvorenički toalet

while it was full of prisoners.

koji je bio pun zatvorenika.

He said he heard suspicious laughter.

Kaže da je čuo sumnjiv smeh.

And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,

Arči Kokran, kao logorski lekar,

was one of the first men in

našao se među prvima

to clear up the mess.

da počisti nered.

And one more thing:

I još jedna stvar --

Archie was suffering from this illness himself.

Arči je i sam patio od iste bolesti.

So the situation seemed pretty desperate.

Situacija je izgledala prilično beznadežno.

But Archie Cochrane

Ali Arči Kokran

was a resourceful person.

je bio dosetljiv.

He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,

Već je bio prokrijumčario vitamin C u logor,

and now he managed

a sada je uspeo

to get hold of supplies of marmite

i da se dokopa zaliha marmajta

on the black market.

sa crnog tržišta.

Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.

Neki od vas će se pitati šta je to marmajt.

Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.

Marmajt je hlebni namaz voljen u Britaniji.

It looks like crude oil.

Izgleda kao sirova nafta.

It tastes ...

Ukus mu je...

zesty.

pikantan.

And importantly,

I najvažnije,

it's a rich source

bogat je izvor

of vitamin B12.

vitamina B12.

So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can

Arči je ljude pod svojim okriljem podelio najbolje što je umeo

into two equal groups.

u dve jednake grupe.

He gives half of them vitamin C.

Polovini je dao vitamin C,

He gives half of them vitamin B12.

a polovini vitamin B12.

He very carefully and meticulously notes his results

Detaljno i s velikom pažnjom je beležio rezultate

in an exercise book.

u svojoj svesci.

And after just a few days,

I nakon samo par dana,

it becomes clear

bilo mu je jasno

that whatever is causing this illness,

da ma koji bio uzrok bolesti,

marmite is the cure.

marmajt joj je lek.

So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.

Kokran tada odlazi Nemcima koji su upravljali logorom.

Now you've got to imagine at the moment --

Sada morate zamisliti taj trenutak --

forget this photo, imagine this guy

zaboravite ovu sliku, zamislite ovog čoveka

with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.

sa tom dugom riđom bradom i gustom crvenom kosom.

He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.

Nije mogao da se brije -- figura nalik Bilu Konoliju.

Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans

Kokran počinje da viče tim Nemcima

in this Scottish accent --

svojim škotskim naglaskom --

in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --

na tečnom nemačkom, inače, ali sa škotskim naglaskom --

and explains to them how German culture was the culture

i objašnjava kako je Nemačka bila kultura

that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.

koja je svetu podarila Šilera i Getea.

And he can't understand

I on ne shvata kako

how this barbarism can be tolerated,

se ovakvo varvarstvo može tolerisati.

and he vents his frustrations.

Dao je oduška svojim frustracijama.

And then he goes back to his quarters,

Onda se vratio u svoje prostorije,

breaks down and weeps

podlegao emocijama i zaplakao,

because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.

jer je bio ubeđen da je situacija beznadežna.

But a young German doctor

Međutim, jedan mladi nemački lekar

picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book

pronašao je svesku Arčija Kokrana

and says to his colleagues,

i rekao svojim kolegama:

"This evidence is incontrovertible.

"Dokazi su neosporni.

If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,

Ako ne obezbedimo vitamine zatvorenicima,

it's a war crime."

to će biti ratni zločin."

And the next morning,

Sledećeg jutra,

supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,

zalihe vitamina B12 isporučene su u logor,

and the prisoners begin to recover.

i zatvorenici su počeli da se oporavljaju.

Now I'm not telling you this story

Ne pričam vam ovo

because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,

zato što mislim da je Arči Kokran likčina,

although Archie Cochrane is a dude.

iako Arči Kokran jeste likčina.

I'm not even telling you the story

Ne pričam vam ni zato što

because I think we should be running

mislim da bi trebalo sprovoditi

more carefully controlled randomized trials

pažljivije kontrolisana slučajna ispitivanja

in all aspects of public policy,

u svim aspektima javne politike,

although I think that would also be completely awesome.

iako mislim da bi i to bilo fenomenalno.

I'm telling you this story

Ovo vam govorim

because Archie Cochrane, all his life,

zato što se Arči Kokran celog života

fought against a terrible affliction,

borio protiv užasne bolesti.

and he realized it was debilitating to individuals

Uvideo je da oslabljujuće deluje na pojedince

and it was corrosive to societies.

i nagrizajuće na društva.

And he had a name for it.

Dao joj je ime.

He called it the God complex.

Nazvao ju je kompleks Boga.

Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.

Simptomi kompleksa Boga mogu se opisati veoma, veoma lako.

So the symptoms of the complex

Dakle, simptomi ovog kompleksa

are, no matter how complicated the problem,

su da, koliko god bio komplikovan problem,

you have an absolutely overwhelming belief

vi ćete biti apsolutno nepokolebljivog uverenja

that you are infallibly right in your solution.

da je vaše rešenje nepogrešivo tačno.

Now Archie was a doctor,

Arči je bio lekar.

so he hung around with doctors a lot.

I prilično se družio sa ostalim lekarima.

And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.

A lekari često pate od kompleksa Boga.

Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,

Ja sam ekonomista, nisam lekar,

but I see the God complex around me all the time

ali često nailazim na kompleks Boga

in my fellow economists.

kod svojih kolega ekonomista.

I see it in our business leaders.

Vidim ga u našim poslovnim liderima.

I see it in the politicians we vote for --

Vidim ga u političarima za koje glasamo --

people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,

ljudima koji su, suočeni sa neverovatno komplikovanim svetom,

are nevertheless absolutely convinced

i dalje potpuno ubeđeni

that they understand the way that the world works.

da savršeno razumeju kako taj svet funkcioniše.

And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,

I znate, pored budućih milijardi o kojima već dugo slušamo,

the world is simply far too complex

svet je jednostavno suviše kompleksan

to understand in that way.

da bi se shvatao na takav način.

Well let me give you an example.

Evo, daću vam primer.

Imagine for a moment

Zamislite na trenutak

that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,

da umesto Tima Hartforda pred vama ovde

there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.

stoji Hans Rozling prezentujući svoje dijagrame.

You know Hans:

Znate Hansa --

the Mick Jagger of TED.

Mik Džegera TED-a.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,

Pokazivao bi vam neku zapanjujuću statistiku,

these amazing animations.

neke zapanjujuće animacije.

And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.

A zaista jesu briljantne; to je izuzetan rad.

But a typical Hans Rosling graph:

Jedan tipičan dijagram Hansa Rozlinga --

think for a moment, not what it shows,

zamislite na trenutak, ne šta vam pokazuje,

but think instead about what it leaves out.

već ono što je u njemu izostavljeno.

So it'll show you GDP per capita,

Pokazaće vam BDP po glavi,

population, longevity,

populaciju, životni vek,

that's about it.

i to je to.

So three pieces of data for each country --

Dakle, tri različita podatka za svaku državu --

three pieces of data.

tri podatka.

Three pieces of data is nothing.

Tri podatka nisu ništa.

I mean, have a look at this graph.

Evo, pogledajte ovaj dijagram.

This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.

Ovaj je napravio fizičar Sesar Hidalgo.

He's at MIT.

On radi u Institutu tehnologije u Masačusetsu.

Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,

Nećete razumeti ni reč ovoga,

but this is what it looks like.

ali ovako to izgleda.

Cesar has trolled the database

Sesar je prikupio bazu podataka

of over 5,000 different products,

od preko 5.000 različitih proizvoda,

and he's used techniques of network analysis

i iskoristio tehnike analize mreže

to interrogate this database

da testira tu bazu

and to graph relationships between the different products.

i skicira veze između različitih proizvoda.

And it's wonderful, wonderful work.

To je divan, zaista divan rad.

You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.

Da pokažeš sve te povezanosti, sve odnose.

And I think it'll be profoundly useful

Mislim da bi bilo neizmerno korisno

in understanding how it is that economies grow.

za razumevanje razvoja ekonomija.

Brilliant work.

Briljantan rad.

Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine

Sesar i ja smo pokušali da napišemo članak za Njujork Tajms

explaining how this works.

da bi objasnili kako funkcioniše.

And what we learned

I došli smo do zaključka

is Cesar's work is far too good to explain

da je Sesarov rad previše dobar

in The New York Times Magazine.

da bi se mogao objasniti u Njujork Tajmsu.

Five thousand products --

5.000 proizvoda --

that's still nothing.

to još uvek ne znači ništa.

Five thousand products --

5.000 proizvoda --

imagine counting every product category

zamislite prebrojavanje svake kategorije

in Cesar Hidalgo's data.

iz baze podataka Sesara Hidalga.

Imagine you had one second

Zamislite da svake sekunde čujete

per product category.

po jednu kategoriju proizvoda.

In about the length of this session,

Otprilike za ovo jedno izlaganje,

you would have counted all 5,000.

izbrojali biste svih 5.000.

Now imagine doing the same thing

Sada zamislite da radite istu stvar

for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.

za svaki različiti proizvod u prodaji u Volmartu.

There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.

Tamo ih je 100.000. Trebao bi vam ceo dan.

Now imagine trying to count

Sada zamislite da prebrojavate

every different specific product and service

svaki različiti proizvod i uslugu

on sale in a major economy

u ponudi u nekoj od vodećih ekonomija,

such as Tokyo, London or New York.

kao što su Tokio, London ili Njujork.

It's even more difficult in Edinburgh

U Edinburgu je još teže,

because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.

jer morate uračunati i sav viski i tartan.

If you wanted to count every product and service

Ako biste hteli da prebrojite svaki proizvod i uslugu

on offer in New York --

u ponudi u Njujorku --

there are 10 billion of them --

ima ih 10 milijardi --

it would take you 317 years.

trebalo bi vam 317 godina.

This is how complex the economy we've created is.

Toliko je složena ekonomija koju smo stvorili.

And I'm just counting toasters here.

A ja ovde samo brojim tostere.

I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.

Ne pokušavam da rešim krizu na Bliskom Istoku.

The complexity here is unbelievable.

Složenost je ovde neverovatna.

And just a piece of context --

Samo jedan delić konteksta --

the societies in which our brains evolved

društva u kojima su naši mozgovi evoluirali

had about 300 products and services.

imala su oko 300 priozvoda i usluga.

You could count them in five minutes.

Mogli biste ih prebrojati za 5 minuta.

So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.

To je složenost sveta koji nas okružuje.

This perhaps is why

To je možda razlog zašto

we find the God complex so tempting.

nam kompleks Boga izgleda tako primamljivo.

We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,

Često se povučemo i kažemo: "Možemo nacrtati sliku,

we can post some graphs,

ubaciti nekoliko grafikona,

we get it, we understand how this works."

dakle znamo šta je, razumemo kako funkcioniše."

And we don't.

A zapravo ne razumemo.

We never do.

Nikad ne razumemo.

Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.

Ne pokušavam da vam ovde prenesem nihilističku poruku.

I'm not trying to say we can't solve

Ne želim da kažem da nismo u stanju

complicated problems in a complicated world.

da rešimo komplikovane probleme u komplikovanom svetu.

We clearly can.

Očito je da možemo.

But the way we solve them

Ali, način na koji ih rešavamo

is with humility --

treba biti ponizan --

to abandon the God complex

bez kompleksa Boga

and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.

koristeći tehniku koja zapravo funkcioniše.

And we have a problem-solving technique that works.

A mi imamo tehniku koja funkcioniše.

Now you show me

Pokažite mi

a successful complex system,

uspešan kompleksni sistem,

and I will show you a system

a ja ću vam pokazati sistem

that has evolved through trial and error.

koji se razvio putem pokušaja i greške.

Here's an example.

Evo primera.

This baby was produced through trial and error.

Ova beba nastala je putem pokušaja i greške.

I realize that's an ambiguous statement.

Shvatam da je ovo dvosmislena izjava.

Maybe I should clarify it.

Možda treba da pojasnim.

This baby is a human body: it evolved.

Ova beba je ljudsko telo: evoluirala je.

What is evolution?

A šta je evolucija?

Over millions of years, variation and selection,

Tokom miliona godina, varijacija i selekcija,

variation and selection --

varijacija i selekcija --

trial and error,

pokušaj i greška,

trial and error.

pokušaj i greška.

And it's not just biological systems

I nisu samo biološki sistemi ti

that produce miracles through trial and error.

koji čine čuda putem pokušaja i greške.

You could use it in an industrial context.

Mogu se primeniti i u industrijskom kontekstu.

So let's say you wanted to make detergent.

Recimo da želite da napravite deterdžent.

Let's say you're Unilever

Recimo da radite za Juniliver

and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.

i želite da napravite deterdžent u fabrici nadomak Liverpula.

How do you do it?

Kako ćete to izvesti?

Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.

Pa, imate neki ogroman rezervoar pun tečnog deterdženta.

You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.

Ispumpate ga pod velikim pritiskom kroz štrcaljku.

You create a spray of detergent.

I napravili ste deterdžent u spreju.

Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.

Onda se sprej osuši. I pretvori se u prah.

It falls to the floor.

Padne na pod.

You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.

Vi ga podignete, upakujete u kartonske kutije,

You sell it at a supermarket.

i prodate u supermarketu.

You make lots of money.

Zaradite puno novca.

How do you design that nozzle?

A kako ćete dizajnirati tu štrcaljku?

It turns out to be very important.

I ona je vrlo bitna.

Now if you ascribe to the God complex,

Ako se držite ovog kompleksa,

what you do is you find yourself a little God.

naći ćete sebi malog Boga.

You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --

Naći ćete sebi matematičara; naći fizičara --

somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.

nekoga ko se razume u dinamiku ove tečnosti.

And he will, or she will,

I on, ili ona, će vam

calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.

izračunati optimalni dizajn štrcaljke.

Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --

Juniliver je to pokušao i nije im uspelo --

too complicated.

previše komplikovano.

Even this problem, too complicated.

Čak je i ovaj problem previše komplikovan.

But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones

Ali genetičar profesor Stiv Džons

describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --

opisao je kako je Juniliver ipak uspeo da reši problem --

trial and error,

pokušajem i greškom,

variation and selection.

varijacijom i selekcijom.

You take a nozzle

Uzmete štrcaljku

and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.

i napravite 10 nasumičnih varijanti te štrcaljke.

You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.

Isprobate svih 10, zadržite onu koja najbolje radi.

You create 10 variations on that one.

I napravite 10 varijanti nje.

You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.

Isprobate svih 10. Zadržite onu koja najbolje radi.

You try out 10 variations on that one.

Onda isprobate 10 varijanti te.

You see how this works, right?

Shvatate kako ovo funkcioniše, zar ne?

And after 45 generations,

I nakon 45 generacija,

you have this incredible nozzle.

dobićete tu neverovatno dobru štrcaljku.

It looks a bit like a chess piece --

Liči pomalo na šahovsku figuru --

functions absolutely brilliantly.

funkcioniše apsolutno savršeno.

We have no idea

Mi nemamo pojma

why it works,

zašto funkcioniše,

no idea at all.

nemamo nikakvu predstavu.

And the moment you step back from the God complex --

Onog trenutka kad se udaljite od kompleksa Boga --

let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;

stavom: "Pokušajmo da napravimo gomilu stvari;

let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --

hajde da na sistematski način utvrdimo šta funkcioniše, a šta ne" --

you can solve your problem.

možete rešiti svoj problem.

Now this process of trial and error

Ovaj proces pokušaja i greške je zapravo

is actually far more common in successful institutions

mnogo prisutniji u uspešnim institucijama

than we care to recognize.

nego što mi to sebi želimo da priznamo.

And we've heard a lot about how economies function.

Čuli smo dosta o tome kako ekonomije funkcionišu.

The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.

Američka ekonomija je još uvek najveća u svetu.

How did it become the world's greatest economy?

A kako je postala najveća ekonomija?

I could give you all kinds of facts and figures

Mogao bih vam dati razne činjenice i cifre

about the U.S. economy,

o američkoj ekonomiji,

but I think the most salient one is this:

ali mislim da je ova najupadljivija:

ten percent of American businesses

10 procenata američkih firmi

disappear every year.

nestane svake godine.

That is a huge failure rate.

To je velika stopa neuspeha.

It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.

Dosta veća od stope neuspeha, recimo, Amerikanaca.

Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.

10 procenata Amerikanaca ne nestaje svake godine.

Which leads us to conclude

Što nas dovodi do zaključka da

American businesses fail faster than Americans,

američke firme propadaju brže nego Amerikanci,

and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.

iz čega sledi da američke firme evoluiraju brže od Amerikanaca.

And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection

I jednog dana, dostići će takav stepen savršenosti

that they will make us all their pets --

da će nas sve pretvotiti u svoje kućne ljubimce --

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

if, of course, they haven't already done so.

ukoliko, naravno, to već nisu i učinile.

I sometimes wonder.

Ponekad se zapitam.

But it's this process of trial and error

Ovaj proces pokušaja i greške

that explains this great divergence,

objašnjava ovu ogromnu razliku,

this incredible performance of Western economies.

ovaj neverovatan uspeh zapadnjačkih ekonomija.

It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.

On nije rezultat postavljanja nekog izuzetno pametnog rukovodioca.

It's come through trial and error.

On je rezultat pokušaja i greške.

Now I've been sort of banging on about this

Možda sam malo preterao sa tom pričom

for the last couple of months,

poslednjih par meseci,

and people sometimes say to me,

jer mi ljudi ponekad kažu:

"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.

"Dobro, Time, to je očigledno.

Obviously trial and error is very important.

Pokušaj i greška su očigledno vrlo bitni.

Obviously experimentation is very important.

Eksperimentisanje je očigledno vrlo bitno.

Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"

Zašto juriš okolo i svima pričaš nešto tako očigledno?"

So I say, okay, fine.

I ja onda kažem, okej, u redu.

You think it's obvious?

Mislite da je očigledno?

I will admit it's obvious

Priznaću da je očigledno

when schools

kada škole budu

start teaching children

počele da uče decu

that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.

da postoje zadaci koji nemaju ispravno rešenje.

Stop giving them lists of questions

Neka prestanu da im daju liste pitanja

every single one of which has an answer.

od kojih svako ima odgovor.

And there's an authority figure in the corner

U ćošku stoji osoba od autoriteta

behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.

koja zna sve odgovore.

And if you can't find the answers,

Ukoliko ne možeš pronaći odgovore,

you must be lazy or stupid.

mora da si lenj ili glup.

When schools stop doing that all the time,

Kada škole prestanu to da rade svakodnevno,

I will admit that, yes,

ja ću priznati da

it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.

jeste očigledno da su pokušaj i greška dobri.

When a politician stands up

Kada političar ustane

campaigning for elected office

prilikom izborne kampanje

and says, "I want to fix our health system.

i kaže: "Želim da popravim naš sistem zdravstveni sistem.

I want to fix our education system.

Želim da popravim naš obrazovni sistem.

I have no idea how to do it.

Nemam pojma kako to da uradim.

I have half a dozen ideas.

Ali, imam gomilu ideja.

We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.

Testiraćemo ih. I verovatno će sve biti neuspešne.

Then we'll test some other ideas out.

Onda ćemo testitirati neke druge ideje.

We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.

Naći ćemo neke koje funkcionišu. Nadogradićemo njih.

We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --

Otarasićemo se onih koje ne funkcionišu."

when a politician campaigns on that platform,

Kada političar bude vodio takvu kampanju,

and more importantly, when voters like you and me

i još važnije, kada birači kao vi i ja

are willing to vote for that kind of politician,

budu voljni da glasaju za njega,

then I will admit

onda ću priznati

that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.

da je očigledno da pokušaj i greška funkcionišu, i da -- hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Until then, until then

Za to vreme, za to vreme

I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error

ću nastaviti da pričam o pokušaju i greški

and why we should abandon the God complex.

i o tome zašto se treba ostaviti kompleksa Boga.

Because it's so hard

Zato što je jako teško

to admit our own fallibility.

priznati sopstvenu pogrešivost.

It's so uncomfortable.

Tako je neprijatno.

And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.

A Arči Kokran je znao to kao i svako drugi.

There's this one trial he ran

Postojalo je jedno ispitivanje koji je on sproveo

many years after World War II.

mnogo godina nakon Drugog svetskog rata.

He wanted to test out

Hteo je da utvrdi

the question of, where is it

na kom bi se mestu

that patients should recover

pacijenti najbolje oporavili

from heart attacks?

od srčanog napada.

Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,

Da li bi trebalo da se oporavljaju na specijalizovanom

or should they recover at home?

odeljenju za kardiologiju ili kod kuće?

All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.

Svi kardiolozi su pokušali da ga zaustave.

They had the God complex in spades.

Imali su pozamašno veliki kompleks Boga.

They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,

Znali su da su njihove bolnice pravo mesto za pacijente.

and they knew it was very unethical

I znali su da je vrlo neetički

to run any kind of trial or experiment.

vršiti bilo kakva ispitivanja i eksperimente.

Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.

Uprkos tome, Arči je dobio dozvolu da to uradi.

He ran his trial.

Sproveo je svoje ispitivanje.

And after the trial had been running for a little while,

I dok je ispitivanje bilo u toku,

he gathered together all his colleagues

sakupio je sve svoje kolege

around his table,

oko svog stola,

and he said, "Well, gentlemen,

i rekao: "Pa, gospodo,

we have some preliminary results.

dobili smo neke preliminarne rezultate.

They're not statistically significant.

Statistički nisu značajni.

But we have something.

Ali ipak imamo nešto.

And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.

I ispostavilo se da ste vi bili u pravu, a ja nisam.

It is dangerous for patients

Jeste opasno po pacijente

to recover from heart attacks at home.

da se od srčanih udara oporavljaju kući.

They should be in hospital."

Treba da budu u bolnici."

And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table

I onda počinje galama, lekari udaraju u sto

and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.

i govore: "Uvek smo govorili da to nije etički, Arči.

You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.

Ubijaš pacijente svojim kliničkim ispitivanjima. Moraš prestati time da se baviš.

Shut it down at once."

Prestani odmah."

And there's this huge hubbub.

Nastaje ogroman metež.

Archie lets it die down.

Arči sačeka dok se ne utiša.

And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,

I onda kaže: "Dobro, sve je to jako zanimljivo, gospodo,

because when I gave you the table of results,

jer kad sam vam pokazao tabelu sa rezultatima,

I swapped the two columns around.

ja sam zamenio mesta dvema kolonama.

It turns out your hospitals are killing people,

Ispostavilo se da vaše bolnice ubijaju ljude,

and they should be at home.

i da treba da budu kući.

Would you like to close down the trial now,

Da li odmah želite da prekinemo ispitivanje,

or should we wait until we have robust results?"

ili želite da sačekamo još jače rezultate?

Tumbleweed

Vetrovalj

rolls through the meeting room.

prokotrlja kroz kancelariju za sastanke.

But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.

Kokran je zaista bio spreman da uradi tako nešto.

And the reason he would do that kind of thing

A bio je spreman zbog toga

is because he understood

što je shvatio

it feels so much better

da se mnogo bolje oseća

to stand there and say,

dok stoji tu i govori:

"Here in my own little world,

"Ovde u svom malom svetu,

I am a god, I understand everything.

ja sam bog, ja razumem sve.

I do not want to have my opinions challenged.

I ne želim da se moja mišljenja dovode u pitanje.

I do not want to have my conclusions tested."

Ne želim da se moji zaključci osporavaju."

It feels so much more comfortable

Mnogo je ugodniji osećaj

simply to lay down the law.

da jednostavno naredite ljudima šta da rade.

Cochrane understood

Kokran je svhatio

that uncertainty, that fallibility,

da nesigurnost, pogrešivost,

that being challenged, they hurt.

i osporavanje bole.

And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.

I ponekad je potrebno protresti nas iz toga.

Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.

Neću se pretvarati da je to lako.

It isn't easy.

Nije lako.

It's incredibly painful.

Veoma je bolno.

And since I started talking about this subject

I otkad sam počeo da govorim o tome

and researching this subject,

i da istražujem tu temu,

I've been really haunted by something

strašno me je proganjalo nešto

a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.

što je jedan japanski matematičar izjavio o tome.

So shortly after the war,

Ubrzo nakon rata,

this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,

jedan mladi čovek, Jutaka Tanijama,

developed this amazing conjecture

razvio je jednu zadivljujuću pretpostavku

called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.

zvanu: Pretpostavka Tanijama-Šimura.

It turned out to be absolutely instrumental

Pokazala se vrlo korisnom,

many decades later

mnogo decenija kasnije,

in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.

za dokazivanje Fermatove poslednje teoreme.

In fact, it turns out it's equivalent

Zapravo, pokazala se kao ekvivalent

to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.

dokazivanju Fermatove poslednje teoreme.

You prove one, you prove the other.

Dokažete jednu, dokazali ste i drugu.

But it was always a conjecture.

Ali, oduvek je bila samo pretpostavka.

Taniyama tried and tried and tried

Tanijama je pokušavao i pokušavao

and he could never prove that it was true.

i nikad nije mogao da dokaže da je tačna.

And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,

A onda je, malo pre svog 30. rođendana 1958.

Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.

Jutaka Tanijama izvršio samoubistvo.

His friend, Goro Shimura --

Njegov prijatelj, Goro Šimura --

who worked on the mathematics with him --

koji je radio na matematici s njim --

many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.

decenijama kasnije, govorio je o Tanijaminom životu.

He said,

Rekao je:

"He was not a very careful person

"Nije bio naročito pažljiv

as a mathematician.

kao matematičar.

He made a lot of mistakes.

Dosta je grešio.

But he made mistakes in a good direction.

Ali, greške je činio u dobrom smeru.

I tried to emulate him,

Pokušao sam da ga kopiram,

but I realized

ali sam shvatio

it is very difficult

da je vrlo teško

to make good mistakes."

činiti dobre greške."

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)