Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

341,761 views ・ 2011-07-15

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Hyun Jin Kim κ²€ν† : Young-ho Park
00:15
It's the Second World War.
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2μ°¨μ„Έκ³„λŒ€μ „μ˜ μΌμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:17
A German prison camp.
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독일 ν¬λ‘œμˆ˜μš©μ†Œμ—
00:20
And this man,
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μ „μŸν¬λ‘œμžμ΄μž
00:23
Archie Cochrane,
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μ˜μ‚¬μ˜€λ˜
00:26
is a prisoner of war and a doctor,
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μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ΄λΌλŠ” μ‚¬λžŒμ΄ μžˆμ—ˆλŠ”λ°
00:29
and he has a problem.
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κ·Έμ—κ²ŒλŠ” ν•œκ°€μ§€ 고민이 μžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
00:32
The problem is that the men under his care
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그것은 λ°”λ‘œ 그의 ν™˜μžλ“€μ΄
00:35
are suffering
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μ‹¬ν•œ 고톡을 λ°›κ³  있고
00:37
from an excruciating and debilitating condition
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μ—„μ²­λ‚˜κ²Œ μ‡ μ•½ν•œ 상황에 λΉ μ Έ μžˆλŠ”λ°
00:40
that Archie doesn't really understand.
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κ·Έκ°€ κ·Έ 원인을 λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
00:43
The symptoms
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κ·Έ 증상은 피뢀밑에 체앑이
00:45
are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.
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가득차며 λ”μ°ν•˜κ²Œ λΆ€ν’€μ–΄ 였λ₯΄λŠ”것 μ΄μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
00:48
But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ κ·ΈλŠ” κ·Έ 원인이 감염인지, μ˜μ–‘μ‹€μ‘°μΈμ§€ λͺ°λžμ§€μš”.
00:51
He doesn't know how to cure it.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ κ·ΈλŠ” μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μΉ˜λ£Œν•΄μ•Ό 할지 λͺ°λžμ§€μš”.
00:53
And he's operating in a hostile environment.
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κ·ΈλŠ” 맀우 μ–΄λ €μš΄ ν™˜κ²½ν•˜μ—μ„œ μΌν–ˆμ§€μš”.
00:56
And people do terrible things in wars.
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ μ „μŸμ€‘μ— λ”μ°ν•œ 짓을 ν•˜μ§€μš”.
00:58
The German camp guards, they've got bored.
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독일 ν¬λ‘œμˆ˜μš©μ†Œμ˜ λ³΄μ΄ˆλ³‘λ“€μ€
01:01
They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random
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μ§€λ£¨ν• λ•ŒλŠ” μ‹¬μ‹¬ν’€μ΄λ‘œ ν¬λ‘œμˆ˜μš©μ†Œ
01:03
for fun.
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μ•ˆμ„ ν–₯ν•΄ μ•„λ¬΄λ°λ‘œλ‚˜ 총을 μ˜κΈ°λ„ ν–ˆμ£ .
01:05
On one particular occasion,
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ν•œλ²ˆμ€, ν™”μž₯μ‹€ λ‚΄λΆ€κ°€ ν¬λ‘œλ“€λ‘œ
01:07
one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory
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꽉 μ°Όμ—ˆμ„λ•Œ λ³΄μ΄ˆλ³‘ ν•œλͺ…이 κ·Έ μ•ˆμœΌλ‘œ 수λ₯˜νƒ„을
01:10
while it was full of prisoners.
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λ˜μ‘ŒλŠ”λ° κ·ΈλŠ” κ±°κΈ°μ„œ 'μ˜μ‹¬μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄' μ›ƒμŒμ†Œλ¦¬κ°€
01:13
He said he heard suspicious laughter.
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λ“€λ €μ„œ 수λ₯˜νƒ„을 λ˜μ‘Œλ‹€κ³  λ§ν–ˆμ£ .
01:15
And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,
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수라μž₯이 됐던 그곳으둜 맨 λ¨Όμ € λ›°μ–΄ κ°”λ˜
01:18
was one of the first men in
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ ν•˜λ‚˜λŠ” ν¬λ‘œμˆ˜μš©μ†Œμ˜
01:20
to clear up the mess.
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μ˜μ‚¬μ˜€λ˜ μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ΄μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
01:22
And one more thing:
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ν•˜μ—¬νŠΌ, κ·Έ λ‹Ήμ‹œ μ•„μΉ˜ μžμ‹ λ„ λ˜‘ 같이
01:24
Archie was suffering from this illness himself.
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λͺΈμ΄ λΆ“λŠ”μ¦μƒμœΌλ‘œ κ³ μƒν•˜κ³  μžˆμ—ˆμ£ .
01:27
So the situation seemed pretty desperate.
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이λͺ¨μ €λͺ¨λ‘œ ν¬λ‘œλ“€μ˜ 상황은 맀우 μ ˆλ§μ μ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
01:30
But Archie Cochrane
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ€
01:32
was a resourceful person.
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μˆ˜μ™„μ΄ λΉ„μƒν•œ μ‚¬λžŒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:35
He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,
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κ·ΈλŠ” 이미 비타민 Cλ₯Ό
01:38
and now he managed
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μˆ˜μš©μ†Œ μ•ˆμœΌλ‘œ
01:40
to get hold of supplies of marmite
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λͺ°λž˜ λ“€μ—¬μ™”μ—ˆκ³ ,
01:42
on the black market.
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μ•”μ‹œμž₯μ—μ„œ λ§ˆλ§ˆμ΄νŠΈλ„ μƒ€μ§€μš”.
01:44
Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€μ˜ μΌλΆ€λŠ” μ•„λ§ˆλ„ λ§ˆλ§ˆμ΄νŠΈκ°€ 뭔지 λͺ¨λ₯΄μ‹œκ² μ£ .
01:47
Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.
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그건 μ˜κ΅­μΈλ“€μ΄ μ•„μΉ¨ μ‹μ‚¬λ•Œ
01:50
It looks like crude oil.
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빡에 즐겨 발라 λ¨ΉλŠ” 것인데
01:52
It tastes ...
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보기엔 μ›μœ κ°™μ΄ 보이고 맛은...
01:54
zesty.
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풍미가 κ°•ν•˜μ£ .
01:56
And importantly,
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그런데 μ€‘μš”ν•œκ²ƒμ€,
01:58
it's a rich source
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λ§ˆλ§ˆμ΄νŠΈμ— 비타민 12κ°€
02:00
of vitamin B12.
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무척 많이 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:02
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can
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μ•„μΉ˜λŠ” 그의 ν™˜μžλ“€μ„ κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ ν•œ
02:05
into two equal groups.
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ν‰λ“±ν•˜κ²Œ 2 그룹으둜 λ‚˜λˆ„κ³ 
02:07
He gives half of them vitamin C.
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ν•œμͺ½μ€ 비타민 Cλ₯Ό μ£Όκ³ 
02:09
He gives half of them vitamin B12.
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λ‹€λ₯Έμͺ½μ€ 비타민 B12λ₯Ό μ€¬μ§€μš”.
02:12
He very carefully and meticulously notes his results
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κ·Έλ¦¬κ³ λŠ” μ‹œν—˜κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό μ—°μŠ΅μž₯에 정성을
02:15
in an exercise book.
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λ“€μ—¬ κΌ¬λ°•κΌ¬λ°• μ μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
02:17
And after just a few days,
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그런데 뢈과 λͺ‡μΌμ΄ λ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•„μ„œ
02:19
it becomes clear
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κ·Έ λ³‘μ˜ 원인이 λ­”μ§€λŠ” λͺ°λΌλ„
02:21
that whatever is causing this illness,
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ν•˜μ—¬νŠΌ 마마이트만 먹으면 νšŒλ³΅λœλ‹€λŠ”
02:24
marmite is the cure.
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사싀이 λͺ…λ°±ν•˜κ²Œ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚¬μ§€μš”.
02:27
So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ½”ν¬λž€μ€ κ·Έ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό 가지고 ν¬λ‘œμˆ˜μš©μ†Œ μ±…μž„μžμ—κ²Œ λ‹¬λ €κ°”μ§€μš”.
02:30
Now you've got to imagine at the moment --
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자, μ§€κΈˆ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ κ·Έ 상황을 상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”...
02:32
forget this photo, imagine this guy
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이 사진은 μžŠμ–΄λ²„λ¦¬κ³ , κ·Έ λŒ€μ‹  λΆ‰μ€λΉ›μ˜
02:34
with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.
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κΈ΄ μˆ˜μ—Όκ³Ό λΉ¨κ°„ 머리λ₯Ό ν•œ κ΄˜μƒν•œ λͺ¨μŠ΅μ˜ λ‚¨μž λͺ¨μŠ΅μ„ κ·Έλ €λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
02:37
He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.
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면도도 λͺ»ν–ˆκ³ ...마치 빌리 코놀리(μ½”λ©”λ””μ–Έ)같은 λͺ¨μŠ΅μ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
02:40
Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans
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μ½”ν¬λž€μ€ μˆ˜μš©μ†Œμ˜ λ…μΌμΈλ“€μ—κ²Œ 고함을 μ³€μ§€μš”.
02:42
in this Scottish accent --
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κ·ΈλŠ” μŠ€μ½”ν‹€λžœλ“œ
02:44
in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --
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μ–΅μ–‘μ˜ μœ μ°½ν•œ λ…μΌμ–΄λ‘œ
02:47
and explains to them how German culture was the culture
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독일 λ¬Έν™”λŠ” μ‰΄λŸ¬μ™€ κ΄΄ν…Œλ₯Ό
02:50
that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.
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세계에 μ€€ 문화인데
02:52
And he can't understand
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ μ•Όλ§Œμ μΈ
02:54
how this barbarism can be tolerated,
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행동을 묡인할 수 μžˆλƒκ³  λ§ν•˜λ©°
02:56
and he vents his frustrations.
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그의 λΆ„λ…Έλ₯Ό ν† ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
02:59
And then he goes back to his quarters,
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κ·Έλ¦¬κ³ λŠ” 그의 μˆ™μ†Œλ‘œ λŒμ•„κ°€μ„œ
03:02
breaks down and weeps
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μ’Œμ ˆκ°μ— 빠진 λ‚˜λ¨Έμ§€
03:05
because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.
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흐느껴 μšΈμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
03:10
But a young German doctor
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ ν•œ μ Šμ€ 독일인 μ˜μ‚¬κ°€
03:13
picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book
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μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ˜ μ—°μŠ΅μž₯에 적힌
03:16
and says to his colleagues,
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μ‹œν—˜κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό 읽고 그의 λ™λ£Œμ—κ²Œ λ§ν–ˆμ£ .
03:20
"This evidence is incontrovertible.
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"이 μ¦κ±°λŠ” λ…ΌμŸμ˜ 여지가 μ—†μ–΄.
03:25
If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ν¬λ‘œλ“€μ—κ²Œ 비타민을 주지 μ•ŠμœΌλ©΄,
03:28
it's a war crime."
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그건 μ „μŸλ²”μ£„μ•Ό."
03:30
And the next morning,
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그리고 λ‹€μŒλ‚  μ•„μΉ¨,
03:32
supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,
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비타민 B12κ°€ μˆ˜μš©μ†Œλ‘œ 배달됐고
03:35
and the prisoners begin to recover.
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ν¬λ‘œλ“€μ΄ νšŒλ³΅ν•˜κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
03:39
Now I'm not telling you this story
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자, μ œκ°€ μ§€κΈˆ 이 이야기λ₯Ό ν•˜λŠ” μ΄μœ λŠ”
03:41
because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,
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μ œκ°€ μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ„ μ’‹μ•„ν•΄μ„œκ°€ μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
03:43
although Archie Cochrane is a dude.
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λ¬Όλ‘  κ·ΈλŠ” μΆ©λΆ„νžˆ μ’‹μ•„ ν•  λ§Œν•œ μ‚¬λžŒμ΄μ—ˆμ§€λ§Œμš”.
03:47
I'm not even telling you the story
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λ˜ν•œ μ œκ°€ 이 이야기λ₯Ό ν•˜λŠ” μ΄μœ λŠ”
03:49
because I think we should be running
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λͺ¨λ“  곡곡정책을 μˆ˜λ¦½ν•  λ•Œ
03:51
more carefully controlled randomized trials
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λ°˜λ“œμ‹œ λ¬΄μž‘μœ„ λŒ€μ‘° μ‹œν—˜μ„ 더 μ—„λ°€ν•˜κ²Œ
03:53
in all aspects of public policy,
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μ‹€μ‹œν•΄μ•Ό ν•œλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έλ„ μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
03:55
although I think that would also be completely awesome.
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λ¬Όλ‘  λ‹Ήμ—°νžˆ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•΄μ•Ό ν•˜μ§€λ§Œμš”.
03:59
I'm telling you this story
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μ œκ°€ 이 이야기λ₯Ό μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ λ§ν•˜λŠ” μ΄μœ λŠ”
04:01
because Archie Cochrane, all his life,
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μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ΄, 그의 μ „ 인생을 톡해
04:04
fought against a terrible affliction,
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λ”μ°ν•œ κ³ ν†΅λ“€μ˜ 원인과 λ§žμ„œμ„œ μ‹Έμ› κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:08
and he realized it was debilitating to individuals
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κ·ΈλŠ” 이런 고톡은 ν•΄λ‹Ή κ°œμΈλ“€μ„ ν—ˆμ•½ν•˜κ²Œ λ§Œλ“€κ³ 
04:12
and it was corrosive to societies.
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μ‚¬νšŒλ₯Ό μ’€λ¨ΉλŠ”λ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 잘 μ•Œμ•˜μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
04:14
And he had a name for it.
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그리고 κ·ΈλŠ” 그것에
04:16
He called it the God complex.
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'μ‹ (God) μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€'λΌλŠ” 이름을 λΆ™μ˜€μ£ .
04:19
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.
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μ œκ°€ 이제 'μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€'의 증상을 μ•„μ£Ό κ°„λ‹¨νžˆ μ„€λͺ…λ“œλ¦¬μ£ .
04:23
So the symptoms of the complex
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μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€μ˜ 증상은
04:26
are, no matter how complicated the problem,
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아무리 λ³΅μž‘ν•œ λ¬Έμ œλΌλ„
04:29
you have an absolutely overwhelming belief
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μžμ‹ μ˜ 해결책이 μ ˆλŒ€μ μœΌλ‘œ λ§žλ‹€λŠ”
04:32
that you are infallibly right in your solution.
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μ™„μ „νžˆ 압도적인 λ―ΏμŒμ„ κ°€μ§€λŠ” κ±°μ£ .
04:36
Now Archie was a doctor,
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μ•„μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ‚¬μ˜€κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
04:38
so he hung around with doctors a lot.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ μ˜μ‚¬λ“€κ³Ό 많이 μ–΄μšΈλ Έμ§€μš”.
04:40
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.
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그런데 λ§Žμ€ μ˜μ‚¬λ“€μ΄ μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€μ— κ±Έλ € μžˆμ§€μš”.
04:43
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,
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μ €λŠ” μ˜μ‚¬κ°€ μ•„λ‹ˆκ³  κ²½μ œν•™μžμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:45
but I see the God complex around me all the time
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κ·Έλ ‡μ§€λ§Œ μ €μ˜ λ™λ£Œ κ²½μ œν•™μž μ€‘μ—μ„œλ„
04:47
in my fellow economists.
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μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€λ₯Ό 많이 λ³Ό 수 μžˆμ§€μš”.
04:49
I see it in our business leaders.
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μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€λŠ” λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€ 리더와
04:51
I see it in the politicians we vote for --
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ νˆ¬ν‘œλ‘œ μ„ μΆœν•˜λŠ” μ •μΉ˜κ°€μ—μ„œλ„
04:53
people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,
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λ³Ό 수 μžˆλŠ”λ°, 우리의 세계가 μ—„μ²­λ‚˜κ²Œ λ³΅μž‘ν•œλ°λ„ λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³ 
04:57
are nevertheless absolutely convinced
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그듀은 세계가 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λŒμ•„κ°€κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€
05:00
that they understand the way that the world works.
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μ•Œκ³  μžˆλ‹€λŠ” ν™•κ³ ν•œ 신념을 가지고 있죠.
05:03
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,
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λ”κ΅¬λ‚˜, μ•žμœΌλ‘œ μˆ˜μ‹­μ–΅μ˜ 인ꡬ가 더 λŠ˜μ–΄λ‚ ν…λ°
05:06
the world is simply far too complex
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우리의 μ„Έκ³„λŠ” 그런 λ°©μ‹μœΌλ‘œ
05:08
to understand in that way.
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μ΄ν•΄ν•˜κΈ°μ—λŠ” λ„ˆλ¬΄λ‚˜λ„ λ³΅μž‘ν•˜μ§€μš”.
05:10
Well let me give you an example.
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μ œκ°€ 그런 예λ₯Ό ν•˜λ‚˜ 보여 λ“œλ¦¬μ£ .
05:12
Imagine for a moment
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€ μ•žμ—μ„œ μ§€κΈˆ
05:14
that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,
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제 μžμ‹ μ΄ μ•„λ‹Œ ν•œμŠ€ 둜슬링이
05:16
there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.
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그의 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ₯Ό μ„€λͺ…ν•˜κ³  μžˆλ‹€κ³  μž μ‹œ 상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
05:19
You know Hans:
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ ν•œμŠ€λ₯Ό μž˜μ•„μ‹œμ£ ?
05:21
the Mick Jagger of TED.
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TED의 λ―Ή 재거 λ§μ΄μ˜ˆμš”. (λ‘€λ§μŠ€ν†€μŠ€μ˜ 리더)
05:23
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
05:25
And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,
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κ·ΈλŠ” μ•„λ§ˆ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ λ†€λΌμš΄ 톡계와
05:27
these amazing animations.
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κ²½νƒ„μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄ μ• λ‹ˆλ©”μ΄μ…˜μ„ 보여주겠죠.
05:29
And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.
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μ•„μ£Ό 멋지고 ν›Œλ₯­ν•œ κ·Έλž˜ν”„κ² μ§€μš”.
05:31
But a typical Hans Rosling graph:
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ ν•œμŠ€ 둜슬링의 μ „ν˜•μ μΈ
05:33
think for a moment, not what it shows,
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κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ“€μ΄ λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” 것 λ³΄λ‹€λŠ” 그것듀이
05:36
but think instead about what it leaves out.
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어떀것을 보여주지 μ•ŠλŠ”κ°€λ₯Ό 생각해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
05:39
So it'll show you GDP per capita,
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그의 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ” κ³ μž‘ν•΄μ•Ό 1인당 GDP,
05:42
population, longevity,
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인ꡬ, ν‰κ· μˆ˜λͺ…,
05:44
that's about it.
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κ·Έ μ •λ„λ§Œ 보여주겠죠.
05:46
So three pieces of data for each country --
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‹ˆκΉŒ ν•œ κ΅­κ°€λ‹Ή 세가지 자료λ₯Ό λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” 것이죠 --
05:48
three pieces of data.
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세가지 자료.
05:50
Three pieces of data is nothing.
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세가지 μžλ£ŒλŠ” 아무것도 μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
05:52
I mean, have a look at this graph.
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제 말은, 이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ₯Ό λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
05:54
This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.
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이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ” λ¬Όλ¦¬ν•™μžμΈ μŽ„μŸˆ νžˆλ‹¬κ³ κ°€ λ§Œλ“ κ±°μ£ .
05:56
He's at MIT.
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κ·ΈλŠ” MITμ—μ„œ μΌν•˜μ£ .
05:58
Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ μ•„λ§ˆ ν•œ 단어도 μ΄ν•΄ν•˜κΈ° μ–΄λ ΅κ² μ§€λ§Œ,
06:00
but this is what it looks like.
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이게 λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έκ°€ λ§Œλ“  κ·Έλž˜ν”„μ£ .
06:02
Cesar has trolled the database
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μŽ„μŸˆλŠ” 5천개 μ΄μƒμ˜
06:04
of over 5,000 different products,
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μ œν’ˆμ— λŒ€ν•œ λ°μ΄ν„°λ² μ΄μŠ€λ₯Ό 읽고
06:07
and he's used techniques of network analysis
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κ·Έ μ œν’ˆλ“€μ˜ μƒν˜Έκ΄€κ³„λ₯Ό
06:12
to interrogate this database
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κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ‘œ λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚΄κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
06:14
and to graph relationships between the different products.
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λ„€νŠΈμ›Œν¬ 뢄석 방법을 μ‚¬μš©ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
06:16
And it's wonderful, wonderful work.
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이것은 μ •λ§λ‘œ μ •λ§λ‘œ ν›Œλ₯­ν•œ 연ꡬ죠.
06:18
You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.
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이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ” λͺ¨λ“  μƒν˜Έμ ‘μ†κ³Ό μƒν˜Έκ΄€κ³„λ₯Ό 보여주죠.
06:21
And I think it'll be profoundly useful
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μ €λŠ” 이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„κ°€ κ²½μ œμ„±μž₯을
06:23
in understanding how it is that economies grow.
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μ„€λͺ…ν•˜λŠ”λ° 맀우 μœ μš©ν•˜λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜μ£ .
06:26
Brilliant work.
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μ•„μ£Ό ν›Œλ₯­ν•œ 연ꡬ이죠.
06:28
Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine
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μŽ„μŸˆμ™€ μ €λŠ” λ‰΄μš• νƒ€μž„μ¦ˆ 맀거진에
06:30
explaining how this works.
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이 연ꡬ결과λ₯Ό μ„€λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” 기사λ₯Ό μ“°λ €κ³  ν–ˆμ£ .
06:32
And what we learned
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그런데 μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μŽ„μŸˆμ˜ 연ꡬ결과가
06:34
is Cesar's work is far too good to explain
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λ‰΄μš• νƒ€μž„μ¦ˆ 맀거진에 λ°œν‘œν•˜κΈ°μ—λŠ”
06:36
in The New York Times Magazine.
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μ§€λ‚˜μΉ˜κ²Œ ν›Œλ₯­ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 말을 λ“€μ—ˆμ§€μš”.
06:40
Five thousand products --
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5천개의 μ œν’ˆλ“€ --
06:43
that's still nothing.
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사싀 그것도 아무것도 μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
06:45
Five thousand products --
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5천개의 μ œν’ˆλ“€ --
06:47
imagine counting every product category
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μŽ„μŸˆ νžˆλ‹¬κ³ μ˜ 데이터에 μžˆλŠ” λͺ¨λ“  μ’…λ₯˜μ˜
06:49
in Cesar Hidalgo's data.
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μƒν’ˆ μ’…λ₯˜λ₯Ό μ„Έμ–΄λ³Έλ‹€κ³  상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
06:51
Imagine you had one second
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μ œν’ˆ μ’…λ₯˜λ‹Ή 1초 μ •λ„μ˜ μ„€λͺ…을
06:53
per product category.
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λ“£λŠ”λ‹€κ³  상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
06:55
In about the length of this session,
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μ œκ°€ 이 토크λ₯Ό ν•˜λŠ” λ™μ•ˆ
06:58
you would have counted all 5,000.
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5천개 정도λ₯Ό μ…€ 수 μžˆκ² μ§€μš”.
07:00
Now imagine doing the same thing
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자, 이제 μ›”λ§ˆνŠΈμ—μ„œ νŒŒλŠ” λͺ¨λ“  물건을
07:02
for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.
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μ„Όλ‹€κ³  상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
07:05
There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.
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10만개 μ •λ„λ‹ˆκΉŒ μ•„λ§ˆ ν•˜λ£¨μ’…μΌ 걸리겠죠.
07:08
Now imagine trying to count
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자 이제 λ™κ²½μ΄λ‚˜ 런던 λ˜λŠ” λ‰΄μš•κ°™μ€
07:10
every different specific product and service
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λŒ€λ„μ‹œμ—μ„œ ꡬ맀할 수 μžˆλŠ”
07:13
on sale in a major economy
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λͺ¨λ“  μƒν’ˆμ΄λ‚˜ μ„œλΉ„μŠ€μ˜ 수λ₯Ό
07:15
such as Tokyo, London or New York.
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ν•œλ²ˆ 상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
07:17
It's even more difficult in Edinburgh
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μ—λ”˜λ²„λŸ¬μ˜ 경우 μœ„μŠ€ν‚€μ™€
07:19
because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.
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타탄 μ§λ¬ΌκΉŒμ§€ λ‹€ μ„Έμ•Ό ν• ν…Œλ‹ˆ 더 μ–΄λ ΅κ² μ£ .
07:22
If you wanted to count every product and service
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λ‰΄μš•μ—μ„œ μ œκ³΅ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”
07:24
on offer in New York --
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μ œν’ˆκ³Ό μ„œλΉ„μŠ€λ“€μ˜ 수λ₯Ό λ‹€ μ„Έλ©΄
07:26
there are 10 billion of them --
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μ•„λ§ˆ 100μ–΅κ°œ 정도 λ ν…Œλ‹ˆ
07:28
it would take you 317 years.
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κ·Έκ±Έ λ‹€ μ…€λ €λ©΄ 317년은 걸리겠죠.
07:31
This is how complex the economy we've created is.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ§Œλ“  κ²½μ œλŠ” 이 μ •λ„λ‘œ λ³΅μž‘ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:34
And I'm just counting toasters here.
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μ €λŠ” μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ κ°„λ‹¨νžˆ 갯수만 μ„ΈλŠ” 거지
07:36
I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.
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λ³΅μž‘ν•œ 쀑동 문제 같은 것을 ν’€λ €λŠ”κ²Œ μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
07:39
The complexity here is unbelievable.
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κ·Έλž˜λ„ 이 λ¬Έμ œλŠ” 말도 λͺ»ν•˜κ²Œ λ³΅μž‘ν•˜μ£ .
07:42
And just a piece of context --
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μΈκ°„μ˜ λ‘λ‡Œκ°€ 진화λ₯Ό 톡해 λ°œλ‹¬λλ˜
07:44
the societies in which our brains evolved
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λ‹Ήμ‹œ μΈκ°„μ‚¬νšŒμ—λŠ” μ•½ 300개의
07:46
had about 300 products and services.
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μ œν’ˆκ³Ό μ„œλΉ„μŠ€κ°€ μžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
07:48
You could count them in five minutes.
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κ·Έκ±Έ λ‹€ μ…€λ €λ©΄ 5뢄정도 κ±Έλ Έκ² μ£ .
07:51
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
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이걸 보면 우리의 세계가 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ λ³΅μž‘ν•œμ§€ μ•Œ 수 있죠.
07:54
This perhaps is why
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μ•„λ§ˆ κ·Έλ ‡κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ— μš°λ¦¬κ°€
07:56
we find the God complex so tempting.
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μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€μ— 마음이 λŒλ¦΄μ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ₯΄μ§€μš”.
07:59
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μš°λ¦¬λ“€λ§Œμ˜ μ„Έκ³„λ‘œ λ“€μ–΄κ°€μ„œ
08:02
we can post some graphs,
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"μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이제 λ‹€ 이해해, μž‘μš©μ›λ¦¬λ„ μ•Œκ³ 
08:04
we get it, we understand how this works."
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ λ„ν˜•μ΄λ‚˜ κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ„ 그릴 수 μžˆμ–΄"라고 λ§ν•˜μ£ .
08:07
And we don't.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 우린 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:09
We never do.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ ˆλŒ€λ‘œ λͺ°λΌμš”.
08:11
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
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μ œκ°€ ν—ˆλ¬΄μ£Όμ˜μ μœΌλ‘œ 말을 ν•˜λŠ”κ²ƒμ΄ μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:13
I'm not trying to say we can't solve
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μ œκ°€ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 우리 μ„Έκ³„μ˜ λ³΅μž‘ν•œ λ¬Έμ œλ“€μ„
08:15
complicated problems in a complicated world.
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ν•΄κ²°ν•  수 μ—†λ‹€κ³  λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:17
We clearly can.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” λ¬Όλ‘  λ¬Έμ œλ“€μ„ ν•΄κ²°ν•  수 있죠.
08:19
But the way we solve them
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 그것듀을 ν•΄κ²°ν•˜λŠ” 방식은
08:21
is with humility --
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μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€λ₯Ό 버리고
08:23
to abandon the God complex
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κ²Έμ†ν•œ 마음으둜 μ‹€μ œλ‘œ νš¨κ³Όκ°€ μžˆλŠ”
08:25
and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
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λ¬Έμ œν•΄κ²° 방식듀을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ§€μš”.
08:28
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ‹€μ œλ‘œ νš¨κ³Όκ°€ μžˆλŠ” 문제 ν•΄κ²° 방법을 μ•Œμ£ .
08:31
Now you show me
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„œ μ €ν•œν…Œ 성곡적이고
08:33
a successful complex system,
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λ³΅μž‘ν•œ μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ ν•˜λ‚˜ 보여주신닀면
08:35
and I will show you a system
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μ €λŠ” μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€λ₯Ό κ±Έμ³μ„œ λ°œλ‹¬λœ
08:38
that has evolved through trial and error.
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μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ˜ ν•œ 예λ₯Ό λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬μ§€μš”.
08:40
Here's an example.
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이 μ•„κΈ°κ°€ κ·Έ 일둀죠.
08:42
This baby was produced through trial and error.
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이 μ•„κΈ°λŠ” μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€λ₯Ό 거쳐 λ§Œλ“€μ–΄μ‘ŒμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:46
I realize that's an ambiguous statement.
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말을 ν•˜κ³ λ‚˜λ‹ˆ μ’€ λͺ¨ν˜Έν•˜κ²Œ λ“€λ¦¬λ„€μš”.
08:49
Maybe I should clarify it.
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쑰금 더 λΆ„λͺ…ν•˜κ²Œ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬μ£ .
08:51
This baby is a human body: it evolved.
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이 μ•„κΈ°λŠ” 진화λ₯Ό ν•œ μΈκ°„μ΄μ§€μš”.
08:54
What is evolution?
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μ§„ν™”λž€ λ¬΄μ—‡μΌκΉŒμš”?
08:56
Over millions of years, variation and selection,
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μˆ˜λ°±λ§Œλ…„μ— 걸친 변화와 선택
08:59
variation and selection --
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변화와 선택 --
09:02
trial and error,
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μ‹œν–‰κ³Ό 착였,
09:04
trial and error.
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μ‹œν–‰κ³Ό 착였.
09:07
And it's not just biological systems
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생물 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œλ§Œ μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€λ₯Ό 톡해
09:09
that produce miracles through trial and error.
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기적을 λ§Œλ“€μ–΄ λ‚΄λŠ”κ²Œ μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
09:11
You could use it in an industrial context.
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이말은 산업뢄야에도 μ μš©λ˜λ‹ˆκΉŒμš”.
09:13
So let's say you wanted to make detergent.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ μƒν™œμš©ν’ˆμ„ λ§Œλ“œλŠ”
09:15
Let's say you're Unilever
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μœ λ‹ˆλ ˆλ²„ νšŒμ‚¬μΈλ° 리버풀 κ·Όμ²˜μ— μžˆλŠ”
09:17
and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
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곡μž₯μ—μ„œ μ„Έμ œλ₯Ό λ§Œλ“ λ‹€κ³  상상해 λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
09:20
How do you do it?
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근데 μ„Έμ œλ₯Ό μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λ§Œλ“€μ£ ?
09:22
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.
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κ±°λŒ€ν•œ 탱크에 가득찬 앑상 μ„Έμ œλ₯Ό
09:25
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.
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κ³ μ••μ—μ„œ λ…Έμ¦λ‘œ λΏœμ–΄μ„œ
09:27
You create a spray of detergent.
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μ„Έμ œ μŠ€ν”„λ ˆμ΄ λ§Œλ“€κ³ 
09:30
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.
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κ·Έκ±Έ 말리면 μ„Έμ œ νŒŒμš°λ”κ°€ λ˜λ©΄μ„œ
09:32
It falls to the floor.
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마루 λ°”λ‹₯에 떨어지면
09:34
You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.
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그것을 νΌμ„œ λ§ˆλΆ„μ§€ μƒμžμ— λ„£μœΌλ©΄ 되죠.
09:36
You sell it at a supermarket.
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그럼 그것을 μŠˆνΌλ§ˆμΌ“μ—μ„œ νŒ”κ³ 
09:38
You make lots of money.
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λˆμ„ 많이 λ²„λŠ” κ±°μ£ .
09:40
How do you design that nozzle?
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그럼 κ·Έ 노즐을 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λ§Œλ“œλ‚˜μš”?
09:43
It turns out to be very important.
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μ•Œκ³  λ³΄λ‹ˆ 그게 핡심적인 λΆ€λΆ„μ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
09:46
Now if you ascribe to the God complex,
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이 문제λ₯Ό μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€ μ‹μœΌλ‘œ ν•΄κ²°ν•˜λ €λ©΄
09:48
what you do is you find yourself a little God.
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앑체역학에 λŒ€ν•΄ μž˜μ•„λŠ”
09:51
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --
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μˆ˜ν•™κ³Ό 물리학 λΆ„μ•Όμ˜ 신같은
09:54
somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ κ·Έ 문제λ₯Ό 맑기면 되겠죠.
09:57
And he will, or she will,
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그러면 그듀은 λ…Έμ¦μ˜
10:00
calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.
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졜적 λ””μžμΈμ„ κ³„μ‚°ν•˜κ² μ§€μš”.
10:03
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --
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μœ λ‹ˆλ¦¬λ²„λ„ 그런 방식을 μ‹œλ„ν–ˆμ§€λ§Œ
10:05
too complicated.
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λ¬Έμ œκ°€ λ„ˆλ¬΄ λ³΅μž‘ν•΄μ„œ μ‹€νŒ¨ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
10:07
Even this problem, too complicated.
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이런 λ¬Έμ œμ‘°μ°¨λ„ λ„ˆλ¬΄ μ–΄λ €μ› λ˜ κ±°μ£ .
10:10
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μœ μ „ν•™μžμΈ μŠ€ν‹°λΈŒ 쑴슀 κ΅μˆ˜κ°€
10:13
describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --
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μœ λ‹ˆλ¦¬λ²„κ°€ 이 문제λ₯Ό μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν’€μ—ˆλŠ”μ§€ μ„€λͺ…ν•΄ μ€¬μ§€μš” --
10:16
trial and error,
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μ‹œλ„μ™€ μ‹€νŒ¨,
10:18
variation and selection.
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λ³€κ²½ 그리고 선택이죠.
10:20
You take a nozzle
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노즐 ν•˜λ‚˜λ‘œ λΆ€ν„° μ‹œμž‘ν•΄μ„œ
10:22
and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.
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λ¬΄μž‘μœ„λ‘œ λ³€κ²½λœ 노즐을 10개 λ§Œλ“€μ£ .
10:26
You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.
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κ·Έ 쀑 제일 μž˜λ˜λŠ” κ²ƒλ§Œ 놔두고 λ‚˜λ¨Έμ§€λŠ” λ‹€ 버리죠.
10:29
You create 10 variations on that one.
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그리고 그쀑 제일 쒋은것을 κ³¨λΌμ„œ 10가지 λ³€ν˜•μ„ 또 λ§Œλ“€μ£ .
10:31
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.
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그리고 또 제일 μž˜λ˜λŠ” κ²ƒλ§Œ λΉΌκ³  λ‚˜λ¨Έμ§€λŠ” λ‹€ 버리죠.
10:34
You try out 10 variations on that one.
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그리고 κ·Έκ²ƒμ˜ λ³€ν˜•μ„ 10개 또 λ§Œλ“€μ§€μš”.
10:36
You see how this works, right?
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이제 κΈ°λ³Έ 원리λ₯Ό μ•„μ‹œκ² μ£ ?
10:38
And after 45 generations,
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이런 μ‹μœΌλ‘œ 45μ„ΈλŒ€λ₯Ό λ‚΄λ €κ°€λ©΄
10:40
you have this incredible nozzle.
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κΈ°κ°€ λ§‰νžˆκ²Œ 쒋은 노즐이 λ‚˜μ˜€μ§€μš”.
10:42
It looks a bit like a chess piece --
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노즐 λͺ¨μ–‘은 체슀 κΈ°λ¬Ό λΉ„μŠ·ν•œλ°
10:44
functions absolutely brilliantly.
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μ™„μ „νžˆ ν›Œλ₯­ν•˜κ²Œ μž‘λ™ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:47
We have no idea
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그런데 μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이 λ…Έμ¦μ˜
10:49
why it works,
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μ„±λŠ₯이 μ™œ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ μš°μˆ˜ν•œμ§€
10:51
no idea at all.
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μ „ν˜€ κ·Έ 이유λ₯Ό λͺ¨λ₯΄μ§€μš”.
10:53
And the moment you step back from the God complex --
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜, μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€λ₯Ό μž μ‹œ 잊고
10:55
let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;
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이것 저것 μ—¬λŸ¬κ°€μ§€λ₯Ό μ‹œλ„ν•΄ 보고
10:57
let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --
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잘 λ˜λŠ” κ²ƒλ§Œ μ²΄κ³„μ μœΌλ‘œ 골라내면
11:00
you can solve your problem.
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λ³΅μž‘ν•œ λ¬Έμ œλ“€μ„ ν•΄κ²°ν•  수 μžˆμ§€μš”.
11:02
Now this process of trial and error
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사싀 이와같은 μ‹œλ„μ™€ μ‹€νŒ¨μ˜ 과정은
11:04
is actually far more common in successful institutions
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성곡적인 κΈ°κ΄€λ“€μ—μ„œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” 것 보닀
11:07
than we care to recognize.
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훨씬 더 자주 μΌμ–΄λ‚©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:09
And we've heard a lot about how economies function.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ²½μ œκ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μž‘μš©ν•˜λŠ”κ°€μ— λŒ€ν•΄ 많이 λ“£μ£ .
11:12
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.
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미ꡭ의 경제λ ₯은 아직도 세계 제1μœ„μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:16
How did it become the world's greatest economy?
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미ꡭ의 경제λ ₯은 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 세계 1μœ„κ°€ λμ„κΉŒμš”?
11:19
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures
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μ œκ°€ 미ꡭ의 κ²½μ œμ— λŒ€ν•œ
11:21
about the U.S. economy,
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λ§Žμ€ 사싀과 숫자λ₯Ό μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜
11:23
but I think the most salient one is this:
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λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦΄ 수 μžˆμ§€λ§Œ
11:26
ten percent of American businesses
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κ·Έ 쀑 κ°€μž₯ μ£Όλͺ©ν•  λ§Œν•œ 것은 λ―Έκ΅­ λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€μ˜
11:29
disappear every year.
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10%κ°€ 맀년 μ‚¬λΌμ§„λ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:32
That is a huge failure rate.
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그건 μ—„μ²­λ‚œ μ‹€νŒ¨μœ¨μ΄μ§€μš”.
11:35
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.
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미ꡭ인의 10%κ°€ 맀년 죽지 μ•ŠμœΌλ‹ˆκΉŒ
11:37
Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.
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그건 미ꡭ인보닀 훨씬 더 높은 μ‹€νŒ¨μœ¨μ΄μ§€μš”.
11:40
Which leads us to conclude
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미ꡭ의 λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€κ°€ 미ꡭ인 보닀
11:42
American businesses fail faster than Americans,
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더 빨리 μ‹€νŒ¨ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 말은 즉 미ꡭ의 사업이
11:45
and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
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미ꡭ인보닀 더 빨리 μ§„ν™”ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 말이죠.
11:48
And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection
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λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€λ“€μ€ 진화λ₯Ό 톡해 μ™„λ²½ν•œ 지경에 λ„λ‹¬ν•΄μ„œ
11:51
that they will make us all their pets --
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κ²°κ΅­μ—” μš°λ¦¬λ“€μ„ κ·Έλ“€μ˜ μ• μ™„λ™λ¬Όλ‘œ λ§Œλ“€κ² μ£ .
11:54
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
11:56
if, of course, they haven't already done so.
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μ €λŠ” 가끔 λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€λ“€μ΄ 이미 저희듀을
11:59
I sometimes wonder.
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μ• μ™„λ™λ¬Όλ‘œ λ§Œλ“€μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜λ‚˜ μ˜μ‹¬ν•˜μ£ .
12:02
But it's this process of trial and error
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ„œκ΅¬κ²½μ œμ˜ μ—„μ²­λ‚œ
12:04
that explains this great divergence,
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λ‹€μ–‘μ„±κ³Ό μ„±κ³΅μ˜ 원동λ ₯은
12:08
this incredible performance of Western economies.
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λ°”λ‘œ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μ‹œλ„μ™€ μ‹€νŒ¨ 과정이죠.
12:11
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ˜‘λ˜‘ν•œ μ§€λ„μžλ₯Ό λ½‘μ•„μ„œκ°€ μ•„λ‹ˆκ³ 
12:14
It's come through trial and error.
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μ‹œλ„μ™€ μ‹€νŒ¨μ˜ 과정을 ν†΅ν•΄μ„œ μ˜¨κ²ƒμ΄μ£ .
12:16
Now I've been sort of banging on about this
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μ €λŠ” μ§€λ‚œ 두어달 λ™μ•ˆ λ°”λ‘œ 이점을
12:18
for the last couple of months,
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μ—¬λŸ¬ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ μ£Όμž₯ν•΄ μ™”λŠ”λ°
12:20
and people sometimes say to me,
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μ’…μ’… μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ €ν•œν…Œ μ΄λ ‡κ²Œ λ§ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
12:22
"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.
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"νŒ€, 그건 λ»”ν•œ μ–˜κΈ°μž”μ•„?
12:24
Obviously trial and error is very important.
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μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€κ°€ μ€‘μš”ν•˜κ³  μ‹€ν—˜μ΄
12:26
Obviously experimentation is very important.
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맀우 μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 건 λͺ…λ°±ν•œ 사싀인데
12:28
Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"
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μ™œ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ λ»”ν•œ μ–˜κΈ°λ§Œ ν•˜λ©° λŒμ•„λ‹€λ‹ˆλ‹ˆ?"
12:31
So I say, okay, fine.
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κ·ΈλŸ°λ§μ„ λ“€μœΌλ©΄ μ €λŠ” ν•™κ΅μ—μ„œ
12:33
You think it's obvious?
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애듀을 κ°€λ₯΄ν‚¬ λ•Œ
12:35
I will admit it's obvious
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정닡을 λͺ¨λ₯΄λŠ” λ¬Έμ œλ“€λ„
12:37
when schools
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μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 μ• λ“€μ—κ²Œ
12:39
start teaching children
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κ°€λ₯΄μΌœ 쀄 λ•Œ κΉŒμ§€λŠ” λŒμ•„λ‹€λ‹ˆλ©°
12:42
that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.
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이런 λ»”ν•œ 말을 ν•˜κ² λ‹€λŠ” 말을 ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
12:45
Stop giving them lists of questions
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μ• λ“€ν•œν…Œ 문제λ₯Ό 풀라고 μ€„λ•Œ
12:48
every single one of which has an answer.
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정닡이 ν•˜λ‚˜λ§Œ μžˆλŠ” 문제만 μ£Όλ©΄ μ•ˆλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:50
And there's an authority figure in the corner
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우리 μ•„μ΄λ“€μ˜ κ΅μ‹€μ—λŠ” λͺ¨λ“  μ§ˆλ¬Έμ— λŒ€ν•œ
12:52
behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.
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닡을 μ•„λŠ” κΆŒμœ„μžˆλŠ” μ„ μƒλ‹˜μ΄ 앉아 κ³„μ‹œμ§€μš”.
12:54
And if you can't find the answers,
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그리고 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ— λŒ€ν•œ 닡을 λͺ¨λ₯΄λŠ” 아이듀은
12:56
you must be lazy or stupid.
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κ²ŒμœΌλ¦„μŸμ΄ λ˜λŠ” 바보 취급을 λ°›κ²Œ 마련이죠.
12:58
When schools stop doing that all the time,
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ν•™κ΅μ—μ„œ 이런 일이 더 이상 생기기 μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λ©΄
13:00
I will admit that, yes,
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μ €λŠ” μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€λΌλŠ” 것이 쒋은 κ²ƒμ΄λΌλŠ”
13:02
it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.
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λ»”ν•œ 말을 더 μ΄μƒν•˜μ§€ μ•Šκ² μ–΄μš”.
13:04
When a politician stands up
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μ €λŠ” μ •μΉ˜μΈλ“€μ΄
13:07
campaigning for elected office
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μ„ κ±°μš΄λ™μ„ ν• λ•Œ
13:09
and says, "I want to fix our health system.
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"의료 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ„ κ°œμ„ ν•˜κ³  μ‹Άλ‹€
13:11
I want to fix our education system.
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ꡐ윑 체계λ₯Ό 고치고 μ‹Άλ‹€
13:13
I have no idea how to do it.
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그런데 비둝 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν•΄μ•Ό ν• μ§€λŠ” λͺ¨λ₯΄μ§€λ§Œ
13:16
I have half a dozen ideas.
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λ‚΄κ°€ 가지고 μžˆλŠ” 아이디어λ₯Ό λͺ‡ 개
13:18
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.
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μ‹œλ„ ν•΄λ³΄μž. 근데 μ‹€νŒ¨ν• μ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€.
13:21
Then we'll test some other ideas out.
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μ‹€νŒ¨ν•˜λ©΄ 또 λ‹€λ₯Έ 아이디어듀을 μ‹œλ„ν•΄λ³΄μž.
13:23
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 그쀑 μ“Έλ§Œν•œ 아이디어λ₯Ό κ³¨λΌμ„œ κ°œμ„ ν•˜κ³ .
13:25
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --
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그렇지 λͺ»ν•œ 것듀은 λ²„λ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€."
13:27
when a politician campaigns on that platform,
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λΌλŠ” 말을 ν•˜λŠ” μ •μΉ˜μΈμ΄ λ‚˜μ˜¬λ•Œ ..
13:30
and more importantly, when voters like you and me
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μ•„λ‹ˆ, 그것보닀 더 μ€‘μš”ν•˜κ±΄ 그런 μ •μΉ˜κ°€λ“€μ„
13:33
are willing to vote for that kind of politician,
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우리 μœ κΆŒμžλ“€μ΄ νˆ¬ν‘œν•΄ μ£ΌλŠ” 날이 였면
13:35
then I will admit
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μ €λŠ” μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€κ°€ 쒋은 λ°©λ²•μ΄λΌλŠ”
13:37
that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.
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말을 더 이상 μ•Šν•˜κ²  ... κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:40
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
13:44
Until then, until then
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜, 그럴 날이 μ˜¬λ•ŒκΉŒμ§€ μ €λŠ” μ™œ μ‹œν–‰μ°©μ˜€κ°€
13:47
I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error
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쒋은 방법이며, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ™œ μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€λ₯Ό
13:49
and why we should abandon the God complex.
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버렀야 ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ 계속 μ£Όμž₯ν•˜κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:52
Because it's so hard
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κ·Έ μ΄μœ λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 우리의 λΆˆμ™„μ „μ„±μ„
13:55
to admit our own fallibility.
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μ‹œμΈν•˜λŠ” 것이 맀우 νž˜λ“€κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
13:57
It's so uncomfortable.
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이것은 맀우 λΆˆνŽΈν•œ μ§„μ‹€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:59
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
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μ•„μΉ˜ μ½”ν¬λž€μ€ κ·Έ λˆ„κ΅¬λ³΄λ‹€λ„ 이것을 잘 μ•Œκ³  μžˆμ—ˆμ£ .
14:02
There's this one trial he ran
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2μ°¨ λŒ€μ „μ΄ λλ‚˜κ³  였래 후에
14:04
many years after World War II.
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κ·Έκ°€ μž„μƒμ‹œν—˜μ„ μ‹€μ‹œν•œ 일이 μžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
14:06
He wanted to test out
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κ·ΈλŠ” 심μž₯λ§ˆλΉ„λ₯Ό κ²ͺ은 ν™˜μžλ“€μ΄
14:09
the question of, where is it
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μ–΄λŠ κ³³μ—μ„œ
14:11
that patients should recover
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νšŒλ³΅ν•˜λŠ” 것이 쒋은지
14:13
from heart attacks?
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μ‹œν—˜ν•΄ 보렀고 ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
14:15
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,
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즉, 심μž₯κ³Ό λ³‘μ‹€μ—μ„œ νšŒλ³΅ν•˜λŠ” 것이 더 쒋은가
14:18
or should they recover at home?
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μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ ν™˜μžμ˜ 집이 더 쒋은가λ₯Ό μ•Œλ €κ³  ν–ˆμ£ .
14:21
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.
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그런데 λͺ¨λ“  심μž₯μ „λ¬Έμ˜λ“€μ€ κ·Έ μ‹œν—˜μ— λ°˜λŒ€ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
14:24
They had the God complex in spades.
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그듀은 λͺ¨λ‘ μ‹  μ½€ν”Œλ ‰μŠ€μ— 흠뻑 λΉ μ Έμžˆμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
14:27
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,
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그듀은 병원이 더 쒋은 곳이라고 'μ•Œκ³ ' μžˆμ—ˆμ£ .
14:30
and they knew it was very unethical
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 그듀은 그런 μ‹€ν—˜μ„ ν•˜λŠ”κ²ƒμ€
14:32
to run any kind of trial or experiment.
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맀우 λΆ€λ„λ•ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 것을 'μ•Œκ³ ' μžˆμ—ˆμ£ .
14:35
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.
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κ·ΈλŸΌμ—λ„ λΆˆκ΅¬ν•˜κ³  μ•„μΉ˜λŠ” μ‹€ν—˜ν—ˆκ°€λ₯Ό λ°›μ•„λƒˆμ£ .
14:37
He ran his trial.
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κ·ΈλŠ” μž„μƒμ‹œν—˜μ΄
14:39
And after the trial had been running for a little while,
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μ‹œμž‘λœμ§€ μ–Όλ§ˆ 후에
14:41
he gathered together all his colleagues
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λ™λ£Œ μ˜μ‚¬λ“€μ„
14:43
around his table,
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νšŒμ˜μ‹€λ‘œ λΆˆλ €μ§€μš”.
14:45
and he said, "Well, gentlemen,
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그리고 κ·Έκ°€ λ§ν•˜κΈ°λ₯Ό, "자, 신사 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„,
14:47
we have some preliminary results.
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λͺ‡κ°€μ§€ μ˜ˆλΉ„ 결과듀이 λ‚˜μ™”μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:49
They're not statistically significant.
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이건 ν†΅κ³„μ μœΌλ‘œ μ˜λ―ΈμžˆλŠ” κ²°κ³ΌλŠ”
14:51
But we have something.
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μ•„λ‹ˆμ§€λ§Œ κ·Έλž˜λ„ 뭐가 μžˆμ–΄ λ³΄μ΄λ„€μš”.
14:54
And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.
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이걸 λ³΄λ‹ˆκΉŒ 당신듀이 옳고 μ œκ°€ ν‹€λ Έκ΅°μš”.
14:57
It is dangerous for patients
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심μž₯λ§ˆλΉ„ ν™˜μžλ“€μ΄
14:59
to recover from heart attacks at home.
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μ§‘μ—μ„œ νšŒλ³΅ν•˜λŠ” 것은 μœ„ν—˜ν•˜λ‹ˆκΉŒ
15:01
They should be in hospital."
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λ°˜λ“œμ‹œ 병원에 있으며 νšŒλ³΅ν•΄μ•Ό κ² λ„€μš”."
15:04
And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table
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그말이 λ–¨μ–΄μ§€μž λͺ¨λ“  μ˜μ‚¬λ“€μ€ 일제히
15:06
and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.
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책상을 λ‘λ“œλ¦¬λ©° "그것봐라 μ•„μΉ˜μ•Ό, 그게 λΆ€λ„λ•ν•œ
15:09
You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.
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ν–‰μœ„λΌκ³  μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 늘 λ§ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜λƒ? 이 μž„μƒμ‹œν—˜μ΄ ν™˜μžλ₯Ό
15:12
Shut it down at once."
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죽이고 μžˆμœΌλ‹ˆ μ§€κΈˆ λ‹Ήμž₯ μ€‘λ‹¨ν•˜λΌ" 라고 λ§ν•˜λ©°
15:14
And there's this huge hubbub.
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와글와글 λ– λ“€κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν–ˆμ£ .
15:16
Archie lets it die down.
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μ•„μΉ˜λŠ” 그듀이 μ‘°μš©ν•΄μ§ˆλ•ŒκΉŒμ§€ κΈ°λ‹€λ Έμ£ .
15:18
And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,
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그리고 κ·ΈλŠ” λ§ν–ˆμ–΄μš”. "맀우 ν₯λ―ΈμžˆλŠ” λ°˜μ‘μ΄κ΅°μš”
15:20
because when I gave you the table of results,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μ œκ°€ μΌλΆ€λŸ¬ μ˜ˆλΉ„ 결과듀을
15:23
I swapped the two columns around.
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λ°˜λŒ€λ‘œ λ°”κΏ”μ„œ λ„ν‘œλ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€μ—ˆκ±°λ“ μš”.
15:27
It turns out your hospitals are killing people,
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사싀은, 병원이 μ‚¬λžŒμ„ 죽이고 μžˆμœΌλ‹ˆκΉŒ
15:29
and they should be at home.
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ν™˜μžλ“€μ΄ μ§‘μ—μ„œ νšŒλ³΅ν•˜κ²Œ ν•΄μ•Ό κ² μ–΄μš”.
15:31
Would you like to close down the trial now,
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μ§€κΈˆ λ‹Ήμž₯ μž„μƒμ‹œν—˜μ„ λλ‚ΌκΉŒμš”?
15:34
or should we wait until we have robust results?"
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μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ μ’€ 더 ν™•μ‹€ν•œ κ²°κ³Όκ°€ λ‚˜μ˜¬λ•ŒκΉŒμ§€ κΈ°λ‹€λ¦΄κΉŒμš”?
15:38
Tumbleweed
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κ·Έ μˆœκ°„ νšŒμ˜μ‹€μ—
15:40
rolls through the meeting room.
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침묡이 ν˜λ €μ§€μš”.
15:43
But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.
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μ½”ν¬λž€μ€ μ΄λŸ°μ‹μœΌλ‘œ μΌν–ˆλ˜ μ‚¬λžŒμ΄μ—ˆμ£ .
15:46
And the reason he would do that kind of thing
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그런데 κ·Έκ°€
15:48
is because he understood
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그런 μŠ€νƒ€μΌλ‘œ
15:50
it feels so much better
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μΌν–ˆλ˜ μ΄μœ λŠ” μš°λ¦¬λ“€μ€
15:52
to stand there and say,
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μ’…μ’… 높은 μžλ¦¬μ— μ•‰μ•„μ„œ
15:54
"Here in my own little world,
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"μ—¬κΈ°λŠ” λ‚˜μ˜ μž‘μ€ 세계인데 λ‚˜λŠ” μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ
15:56
I am a god, I understand everything.
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신이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ— λͺ¨λ“ κ²ƒμ„ λ‹€ μ•ˆλ‹€.
15:58
I do not want to have my opinions challenged.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‹ˆκΉŒ λ‚΄ μ˜κ²¬μ— λ§žμ„œμ§€ 말고 λ‚΄ 결둠을
16:00
I do not want to have my conclusions tested."
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μ˜μ‹¬ν•˜μ§€ 말라"λŠ” μ‹μœΌλ‘œ 행동을 ν•œλ‹€λŠ”κ²ƒμ„ μ•Œμ•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
16:03
It feels so much more comfortable
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λͺ¨λ‘κ°€ 따라야 ν•˜λŠ” κ·œμΉ™μ„
16:05
simply to lay down the law.
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λ§Œλ“€λ©΄ λ§Œμ‚¬κ°€ νŽΈν•˜κΈ° 마련이죠.
16:08
Cochrane understood
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μ½”μ½”λž€μ€ λΆˆν™•μ‹€μ„±,
16:10
that uncertainty, that fallibility,
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λΆˆμ™„μ „μ„±, 그리고 도전을 λ°›λŠ”λ‹€λŠ” 것은
16:12
that being challenged, they hurt.
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μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²ŒλŠ” κ³ ν†΅μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄ μΌμ΄λΌλŠ” 것을 μ΄ν•΄ν–ˆμ§€μš”.
16:14
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 가끔 좩격을 λ°›κ³  μ•ˆμ΄ν•œ μƒνƒœμ—μ„œ λΉ μ Έλ‚˜μ™€μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:18
Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.
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μ €λŠ” 그것이 μ‰¬μš΄μ²™ κ°€μž₯ν•˜μ§€λŠ” μ•Šκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:21
It isn't easy.
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그건 μ‰¬μš΄μΌμ΄ μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ .
16:23
It's incredibly painful.
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그건 맀우 κ³ ν†΅μŠ€λŸ¬μš΄ 일이죠.
16:25
And since I started talking about this subject
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μ œκ°€ 이 λ¬Έμ œμ— λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ 이야기도 ν•˜κ³ ,
16:27
and researching this subject,
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연ꡬ도 ν•˜κΈ° μ‹œμž‘ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ μ €λŠ”
16:29
I've been really haunted by something
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일본 μˆ˜ν•™μž ν•œλͺ…이 이 λ¬Έμ œμ— κ΄€λ ¨λΌμ„œ
16:31
a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.
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ν•œ 말을 κ³„μ†ν•΄μ„œ μƒκ°ν•˜κ³  μžˆμ§€μš”.
16:33
So shortly after the war,
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μ „μŸμ΄ λλ‚˜κ³  μ–Όλ§ˆ μ§€λ‚˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•„,
16:35
this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,
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μœ νƒ€μΉ΄ νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆλΌλŠ” ν•œ μ Šμ€ 청년이
16:38
developed this amazing conjecture
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νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆ-μ‹œλ¬΄λΌ μΆ”λ‘ μ΄λΌλŠ”
16:40
called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.
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λ†€λΌμš΄ 좔둠을 μ†Œκ°œν–ˆμ§€μš”.
16:42
It turned out to be absolutely instrumental
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이 좔둠은 μˆ˜μ‹­λ…„ 후에
16:45
many decades later
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페λ₯΄λ§ˆμ˜ λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰ 정리λ₯Ό 증λͺ…ν•˜λŠ”λ°
16:47
in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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μ ˆλŒ€μ μΈ 도움이 λμ—ˆμ§€μš”.
16:49
In fact, it turns out it's equivalent
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후에 λ³΄λ‹ˆκΉŒ 그건 페λ₯΄λ§ˆμ˜ λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰ 정리λ₯Ό
16:51
to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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증λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” 것과 λ§ˆμ°¬κ°€μ§€λ”κ΅°μš”.
16:53
You prove one, you prove the other.
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λ‘˜ 쀑에 ν•˜λ‚˜λ§Œ 증λͺ…ν•˜λ©΄ λ‘˜ λ‹€ 증λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” κ±°μ˜€μ£ .
16:57
But it was always a conjecture.
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그것은 계속 ν•˜λ‚˜μ˜ μˆ˜ν•™μΆ”λ‘ μœΌλ‘œ λ‚¨μ•„μžˆμ—ˆμ£ .
17:00
Taniyama tried and tried and tried
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νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆλŠ” 그의 좔둠이 μ˜³λ‹€λŠ” 것을
17:03
and he could never prove that it was true.
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증λͺ…ν•˜λ €κ³  μ˜¨κ°– μ‹¬ν˜ˆμ„ κΈ°μšΈμ˜€μ§€λ§Œ μ‹€νŒ¨ν–ˆμ£ .
17:06
And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,
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그리고 1958λ…„, 그의 30μ„Έ 생일 직전에
17:09
Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.
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μœ νƒ€μΉ΄ νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆλŠ” 슀슀둜 λͺ©μˆ¨μ„ λŠμ—ˆμ£ .
17:13
His friend, Goro Shimura --
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νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆμ™€ ν•¨κ»˜ μˆ˜ν•™ 연ꡬλ₯Ό ν–ˆλ˜
17:15
who worked on the mathematics with him --
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그의 친ꡬ 고둜 μ‹œλ¬΄λΌλŠ” λͺ‡μ‹­λ…„ 뒀에
17:17
many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.
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νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆμ˜ 생에 λŒ€ν•΄ νšŒμƒν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:22
He said,
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μ‹œλ¬΄λΌλŠ” λ‹€μŒκ³Ό 같이 λ§ν–ˆμ£ .
17:25
"He was not a very careful person
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"νƒ€λ‹ˆμ•Όλ§ˆλŠ” μˆ˜ν•™μžλ‘œμ¨
17:27
as a mathematician.
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κΌΌκΌΌν•œ μ‚¬λžŒμ΄ μ•„λ‹ˆμ—ˆλ‹€.
17:29
He made a lot of mistakes.
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κ·ΈλŠ” λ§Žμ€ μ‹€μˆ˜λ₯Ό ν–ˆλ‹€.
17:32
But he made mistakes in a good direction.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ κ·ΈλŠ” 쒋은 λ°©ν–₯의 μ‹€μˆ˜λ₯Ό ν–ˆλ‹€.
17:36
I tried to emulate him,
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λ‚˜λŠ” κ·Έλ₯Ό 흉내내렀고 λ…Έλ ₯ν–ˆμ§€λ§Œ
17:39
but I realized
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λ‚΄κ°€ 깨달은 것은,
17:41
it is very difficult
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쒋은 μ‹€μˆ˜λ₯Ό ν•˜λŠ”κ²ƒμ΄
17:43
to make good mistakes."
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맀우 μ–΄λ ΅λ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆλ‹€."
17:46
Thank you.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:48
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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