Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

翻译人员: Jenny Yang 校对人员: Felix Chen

It's the Second World War.

这是二战期间，

A German prison camp.

一个德国集中营，

And this man,

这个人，

Archie Cochrane,

阿奇·卡克伦，

is a prisoner of war and a doctor,

是战俘也是一名医生，

and he has a problem.

他遇到了一个问题，

The problem is that the men under his care

这个问题是他看护的人们

are suffering

正在承受

from an excruciating and debilitating condition

病痛和衰弱的煎熬。

that Archie doesn't really understand.

阿奇不明白是怎么回事。

The symptoms

这种症状是

are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.

皮肤下面有可怕水肿。

But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.

他不知道这是一种感染，还是营养不良造成的。

He doesn't know how to cure it.

他不知道怎样提供治疗。

And he's operating in a hostile environment.

他是在一个充满敌意的环境里工作。

And people do terrible things in wars.

而人们常常在战争期间做可怕的事情。

The German camp guards, they've got bored.

德国集中营的守卫无聊的时候。

They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random

他们会对着集中营随意扫射

for fun.

来寻开心。

On one particular occasion,

特别是有一次，

one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory

一个守卫朝犯人的厕所里扔了枚手榴弹，

while it was full of prisoners.

里面满是犯人。

He said he heard suspicious laughter.

他说他听到了可疑的笑声。

And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,

而阿奇·卡克伦，作为集中营的医生，

was one of the first men in

是第一个进去

to clear up the mess.

处理惨状的人。

And one more thing:

另外，

Archie was suffering from this illness himself.

阿奇自己也受着这个疾病的困扰，

So the situation seemed pretty desperate.

所以情况是非常危急。

But Archie Cochrane

但是阿奇·卡克伦

was a resourceful person.

是一个足智多谋的人。

He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,

他已经将维生素C带到了集中营，

and now he managed

现在他又想办法

to get hold of supplies of marmite

从黑市上弄到了

on the black market.

一些马麦。

Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.

你们中的一些人也许会问马麦是什么，

Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.

马麦英国人热爱的早餐面包酱，

It looks like crude oil.

它看上去象天然油。

It tastes ...

味道

zesty.

很浓

And importantly,

更重要的是，

it's a rich source

它含有丰富的

of vitamin B12.

维他命B12。

So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can

所以阿奇就把他的病人平分

into two equal groups.

成两组人。

He gives half of them vitamin C.

他给其中的一半维他命C。

He gives half of them vitamin B12.

他给另一半维他命B12。

He very carefully and meticulously notes his results

他非常小心谨慎把他的结果

in an exercise book.

记录在一个练习簿上。

And after just a few days,

几天以后

it becomes clear

结果显然表明

that whatever is causing this illness,

不管是病因是什么

marmite is the cure.

马麦能帮助治愈这个病。

So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.

所以卡克伦跑去跟管理集中营的德国人说。

Now you've got to imagine at the moment --

你想象一下那一刻，

forget this photo, imagine this guy

别看这张照片， 你想象一下这个家伙

with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.

一下巴淡黄色大胡子，一头刺眼的红发

He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.

他好久没有修面，有点象比利·康诺利那个样子

Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans

卡克伦开始数落那些德国人，

in this Scottish accent --

带着苏格兰口音，

in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --

其实他讲着一口流利的德语，只是带点苏格兰口音

and explains to them how German culture was the culture

他对他们说他无法理解

that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.

能够为世界带来席勒和歌德的

And he can't understand

德国文化怎么可以容忍

how this barbarism can be tolerated,

如此的野蛮。

and he vents his frustrations.

他发了一通牢骚

And then he goes back to his quarters,

然后就回到了他的住处，

breaks down and weeps

倒头哭泣

because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.

因为他认为这个状况无可救药。

But a young German doctor

但是另一个年轻的德国医生

picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book

拿起了阿奇·卡克伦的练习簿

and says to his colleagues,

对他的同僚说

"This evidence is incontrovertible.

"这个证据是不用质疑的

If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,

“如果我们不给犯人提供维生素

it's a war crime."

这是战争犯罪”。

And the next morning,

第二天早上，

supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,

含维他命B12的物资被送到了集中营，

and the prisoners begin to recover.

犯人开始恢复。

Now I'm not telling you this story

我现在跟你们讲这个故事，

because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,

不是因为我认为阿奇·卡克伦是个人物，

although Archie Cochrane is a dude.

虽然阿奇·卡克伦本来就是个人物。

I'm not even telling you the story

我跟你说这个故事也不是

because I think we should be running

因为我认为我们应该更小心地

more carefully controlled randomized trials

随机抽样试验。

in all aspects of public policy,

在公共政策的各个方面

although I think that would also be completely awesome.

虽然我觉得这样做完全会很好。

I'm telling you this story

我告诉你这个故事

because Archie Cochrane, all his life,

是因为阿奇·卡克伦的一生，

fought against a terrible affliction,

都在与一种可怕的痛苦做斗争。

and he realized it was debilitating to individuals

而且他认识到这是一种削弱个人

and it was corrosive to societies.

和腐蚀社会的东西。

And he had a name for it.

他为它取了个名字，

He called it the God complex.

他把它称为：万能神力（自以为有能力解决复杂问题的本事）

Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.

现在我可以来描述万能神力的症状

So the symptoms of the complex

它的症状是：

are, no matter how complicated the problem,

无论问题多么复杂

you have an absolutely overwhelming belief

你还是绝对彻底相信

that you are infallibly right in your solution.

你的解决方案是准确无误的

Now Archie was a doctor,

阿奇是个医生

so he hung around with doctors a lot.

他一直和医生们在一起

And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.

医生就常常患有这种毛病

Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,

我是个经济学家， 我不是医生

but I see the God complex around me all the time

我在我周围也一直看到这种“万能神力”的症状

in my fellow economists.

出现在我的经济学家伙伴中

I see it in our business leaders.

我看见它存在于我们的商业领袖身上

I see it in the politicians we vote for --

我们看见它存在于我们推选的政客身上。

people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,

这些人面对这及其复杂的世界

are nevertheless absolutely convinced

仍然绝对坚信

that they understand the way that the world works.

他们知道这个世界是怎样运作的

And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,

而你们知道，我们在这里听到的未来的数十亿人的种种

the world is simply far too complex

用那种方法来理解这个复杂

to understand in that way.

的世界显然是太简单化了

Well let me give you an example.

让我来给你们一个例子

Imagine for a moment

你们想象一下

that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,

现在如果站在你们面前的不是我

there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.

而是汉斯·罗斯林在展示他的图表

You know Hans:

你们知道汉斯：

the Mick Jagger of TED.

TED的米克·贾格尔

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,

他给你们展示了这些神奇的数据

these amazing animations.

神奇的动画

And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.

它们很出色，很棒的研究结果

But a typical Hans Rosling graph:

但是汉斯的图表：

think for a moment, not what it shows,

想一下，不是那些已经展示的

but think instead about what it leaves out.

而是想一下那些没有被展示的。

So it'll show you GDP per capita,

是，里面包括了人均国内生产总值

population, longevity,

人口，寿命

that's about it.

就这些

So three pieces of data for each country --

每个国家三个数据

three pieces of data.

三个数据

Three pieces of data is nothing.

三个数据什么都不是

I mean, have a look at this graph.

我是说，请看一下这张图

This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.

这张图是物理学家塞萨尔·伊达尔戈制作的

He's at MIT.

他在麻省理工工作

Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,

你一个字也不懂

but this is what it looks like.

但是它看上去是这个样子的

Cesar has trolled the database

塞萨尔用数据库搜索

of over 5,000 different products,

5000个不同的产品，

and he's used techniques of network analysis

他用网络分析的技术

to interrogate this database

提取分析数据

and to graph relationships between the different products.

并用图表来表示不同产品间的关系

And it's wonderful, wonderful work.

那是非常非常好的工作

You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.

展示了所有这些互相的关系和链接

And I think it'll be profoundly useful

我想这些对理解经济怎样增长

in understanding how it is that economies grow.

是极其有用的

Brilliant work.

是杰作

Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine

塞萨尔和我试着想要给纽约时代杂志

explaining how this works.

写一篇稿子描述这个工作

And what we learned

我们发现

is Cesar's work is far too good to explain

塞萨尔的研究成果远不是一篇

in The New York Times Magazine.

纽约时代杂志的文章可以描述得清楚的

Five thousand products --

5000个产品

that's still nothing.

这还没什么

Five thousand products --

5000个产品

imagine counting every product category

想象我们来数塞萨尔·伊达尔戈数据

in Cesar Hidalgo's data.

中的每个产品的目录

Imagine you had one second

想象你每一秒钟

per product category.

听到一个产品种类的名字

In about the length of this session,

大约用这段会议的时间

you would have counted all 5,000.

你可以数完5000个产品

Now imagine doing the same thing

现在你再想象去数各种

for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.

不同的在沃尔玛销售的产品

There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.

那有10万种， 那大概需要一天才能数完

Now imagine trying to count

现在你想象去数

every different specific product and service

在主要经济体中销售的

on sale in a major economy

每种不同的特殊产品和服务

such as Tokyo, London or New York.

比如，东京， 伦敦，或者纽约

It's even more difficult in Edinburgh

在爱丁堡就更难了

because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.

因为你得数所有的威士忌和格子呢绒

If you wanted to count every product and service

如果你要数在纽约提供的

on offer in New York --

产品和服务

there are 10 billion of them --

那就有100亿种

it would take you 317 years.

你得数317年

This is how complex the economy we've created is.

这就是我们创造的复杂的经济体

And I'm just counting toasters here.

而我这只是在这里数烤面包机而已

I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.

我没想去解决中东问题

The complexity here is unbelievable.

所以问题的复杂性是不可思议的

And just a piece of context --

我再提供一个背景数据

the societies in which our brains evolved

我们大脑演变的社会

had about 300 products and services.

具有300多种产品和服务

You could count them in five minutes.

你可以在5分钟里数完他们

So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.

所以这就是我们所处的环境的复杂性

This perhaps is why

这也许也是为什么

we find the God complex so tempting.

我们发现“万能神力”很有吸引力

We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,

我们喜欢退一步说：“我们可以来画一个图，

we can post some graphs,

我们可以贴一些图表，

we get it, we understand how this works."

我们知道这是怎么运作的。”

And we don't.

但是我们不知道

We never do.

我们从来都不知道。

Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.

我不是要在这里传递一个虚无主义的信息

I'm not trying to say we can't solve

我不是想说我们不能在

complicated problems in a complicated world.

复杂的世界里解决复杂的问题

We clearly can.

我们显然是可以的

But the way we solve them

但是我们需要用一种

is with humility --

谦逊的态度来解决问题

to abandon the God complex

要抛弃“万能神力”的态度

and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.

而是用一个实际可行的解决问题的手法。

And we have a problem-solving technique that works.

我们有一个实际可行的解决问题的手法

Now you show me

你给我举一个

a successful complex system,

成功的复杂系统

and I will show you a system

我就能显示给你看

that has evolved through trial and error.

这个系统是如何在试验和排除错误中不断演进的。

Here's an example.

这里有一个例子

This baby was produced through trial and error.

这个孩子是通过试验和排除错误而产生的

I realize that's an ambiguous statement.

我知道这是一个模糊的说法

Maybe I should clarify it.

也许我应该澄清

This baby is a human body: it evolved.

这个孩子是人类的身体：它进化了。

What is evolution?

什么是进化？

Over millions of years, variation and selection,

经历了几百万年的变种和选择

variation and selection --

变种和选择

trial and error,

试验和排除错误

trial and error.

试验和排除错误

And it's not just biological systems

这不只是生物系统

that produce miracles through trial and error.

在试验和排除错误中缔造神奇

You could use it in an industrial context.

你可以把它用于产业环境中

So let's say you wanted to make detergent.

比如你要生产清洁剂

Let's say you're Unilever

你是联合利华

and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.

你要在利物浦旁边的一家工厂生产清洁剂

How do you do it?

你怎么做呢？

Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.

你有这么一大池子的液体清洁剂

You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.

你用高压将它压过一个喷嘴

You create a spray of detergent.

你制造了清洁剂喷雾

Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.

喷雾干燥后就成了粉末

It falls to the floor.

掉在地板上，

You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.

你将它铲起，放入一个纸板盒子里。

You sell it at a supermarket.

你到超市去卖，

You make lots of money.

你可以赚好多钱。

How do you design that nozzle?

你怎么设计喷嘴

It turns out to be very important.

结果这个很重要

Now if you ascribe to the God complex,

如果你倾向于用万能神力来解决这个问题

what you do is you find yourself a little God.

你会觉得自己是个小上帝

You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --

你会发现自己是个数学家，物理学家

somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.

是一个懂得液体动态的专家

And he will, or she will,

他或者她会

calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.

计算管口的最佳设计方案

Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --

联合利华这么做了，但是失败了

too complicated.

太复杂了

Even this problem, too complicated.

即使是这样的问题，也太复杂了

But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones

但是遗传学家史蒂文琼斯教授

describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --

讲述了联合利华其实是怎样解决这个问题的

trial and error,

试验和失败

variation and selection.

改变和选择

You take a nozzle

你拿一个管口

and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.

你随机地做出10个不同的管口

You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.

你测试这10个管口，你把最好的那个保留下来

You create 10 variations on that one.

你再拿这个做基础再做10个不同的管口

You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.

你测试这10个，你把最好的保留下来

You try out 10 variations on that one.

你再这个基础上测试10个

You see how this works, right?

你知道这是怎么做出来的了吧？

And after 45 generations,

经过45轮测试后

you have this incredible nozzle.

你们就得到了这个很好的喷嘴管口

It looks a bit like a chess piece --

这个看上去有点象国际象棋棋子

functions absolutely brilliantly.

工作起来绝对高效

We have no idea

我们不知道

why it works,

为什么它那么高效

no idea at all.

根本不知道

And the moment you step back from the God complex --

当你不再认为自己有万能神力

let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;

而是开始尝试一些东西

let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --

用一个系统的办法来决定什么办法行什么办法不行

you can solve your problem.

你就能解决你的问题

Now this process of trial and error

这个过程就是试验和排除错误的过程

is actually far more common in successful institutions

事实上这是成功机构的一个很大的共性

than we care to recognize.

只是我们认识得很不够

And we've heard a lot about how economies function.

我们听过很多经济是如何运作的言论

The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.

美国的经济仍然是世界上最好的经济体

How did it become the world's greatest economy?

它怎么变成世界上最好的经济体的呢？

I could give you all kinds of facts and figures

我可以给你很多事实和数字

about the U.S. economy,

关于美国经济的

but I think the most salient one is this:

但是我想最突出的是这点：

ten percent of American businesses

每年10%的美国企业

disappear every year.

会消失

That is a huge failure rate.

这是很高的失败率

It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.

这个失败率比美国人的失败率要高

Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.

美国人并没有以10%的比率每年消失

Which leads us to conclude

所以我们可以总结说

American businesses fail faster than Americans,

美国企业比美国人消失得更快

and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.

因此美国企业比美国人进化得要快

And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection

而最终， 他们进化到了完美的顶端

that they will make us all their pets --

他们会把我们都变成他们的宠物

(Laughter)

（笑声）

if, of course, they haven't already done so.

如果，他们还没有这么做的话

I sometimes wonder.

我有时会想

But it's this process of trial and error

但是试验和排除错误的过程

that explains this great divergence,

解释了这巨大的差异

this incredible performance of Western economies.

西方经济的出色的表现。

It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.

它的发生不是因为你让一些特别聪明的人掌管了一切

It's come through trial and error.

它是从试试验和排除错误中得来的

Now I've been sort of banging on about this

在过去的几个月里， 我反复

for the last couple of months,

在讨论这个问题

and people sometimes say to me,

有人有时跟我说

"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.

“提姆，这不是很显然么

Obviously trial and error is very important.

很显然试验和排除错误很重要

Obviously experimentation is very important.

很显然尝试很重要

Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"

你为什么到处讲这个显然的事情呢？”

So I say, okay, fine.

所以我说，好啊

You think it's obvious?

你认为这个很显然是吗？

I will admit it's obvious

我也会承认这个很显然

when schools

当学校

start teaching children

开始告诉孩子们

that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.

有时问题不总是有正确答案的时候

Stop giving them lists of questions

不再给他们一系列问题

every single one of which has an answer.

每个问题都有一个答案

And there's an authority figure in the corner

而老师的桌子背后的角落里总是站着

behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.

一个知道所有答案的权威

And if you can't find the answers,

如果你找不到答案

you must be lazy or stupid.

你不是懒惰就是愚蠢

When schools stop doing that all the time,

当学习停止这么做时

I will admit that, yes,

我愿意承认

it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.

试验和排除错误显然是好事

When a politician stands up

当政客们站出来

campaigning for elected office

竞选公职时

and says, "I want to fix our health system.

他们说：“我想治理我们的健康系统

I want to fix our education system.

我想治理我们的教育体系

I have no idea how to do it.

我还不知道怎么做

I have half a dozen ideas.

但是我又很多想法

We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.

我们会测试这些想法， 我们可能失败

Then we'll test some other ideas out.

然后我们会再测试其他想法

We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.

我们会发现有些有效的办法，然后在那个基础上继续建设

We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --

我们会抛弃那些无效的做法。“

when a politician campaigns on that platform,

当政治家在那样的平台上竞选

and more importantly, when voters like you and me

更重要的是，象你我这样的选举人

are willing to vote for that kind of politician,

愿意投票给这样的政治家

then I will admit

那我就承认

that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.

测试和排除错误显然是有效的，而那时， 我会对你们说：谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）

Until then, until then

直到那个时候， 直到那个时候

I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error

我会继续讨论测试和排除错误这个话题

and why we should abandon the God complex.

和为什么我们需要抛弃“万能神力”态度

Because it's so hard

因为我们很难

to admit our own fallibility.

我们自己是很容易犯错的

It's so uncomfortable.

这令人感到很不舒服

And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.

阿奇·卡克伦和其他人一样理解这一点

There's this one trial he ran

这是他做的一个试验

many years after World War II.

那时在二战很多年后

He wanted to test out

他想要测试出

the question of, where is it

病人心脏病发作后

that patients should recover

应该在哪里

from heart attacks?

康复

Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,

他们是应该在医院的心脏科康复

or should they recover at home?

还是在家康复

All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.

所有心脏科医生都想要把他挡在门外

They had the God complex in spades.

他们完全摆出拥有万能的神力的样子

They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,

他们知道医院才是病人康复的地方

and they knew it was very unethical

他们觉得做任何试验都是

to run any kind of trial or experiment.

不道德的

Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.

无论如何，阿奇得到了试验的许可

He ran his trial.

他进行了试验

And after the trial had been running for a little while,

试验进行了一阵后

he gathered together all his colleagues

他把他所有的同事召集起来

around his table,

在他的桌子旁，

and he said, "Well, gentlemen,

他说：“先生们，

we have some preliminary results.

我们已经有了初步的结果。

They're not statistically significant.

这些数据在统计学上并不可观

But we have something.

但是我们有了些数据

And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.

结果表明你们是正确的我是错的

It is dangerous for patients

让心脏病人在家

to recover from heart attacks at home.

康复是危险的

They should be in hospital."

他们应该留在医院里。 ”

And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table

这引起了一片吵嚷， 医生们开始拍桌子

and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.

说：“我们一直说阿奇你这样做是不道德的”

You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.

你用你的临床试验在杀人，你应该现在就停止。

Shut it down at once."

马上停止。“

And there's this huge hubbub.

阿奇等这一阵大声的吵嚷

Archie lets it die down.

安静下来后

And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,

说：“先生们， 真是很有意思，

because when I gave you the table of results,

因为当我给你们看结果的时候，

I swapped the two columns around.

我互换了这两行资料

It turns out your hospitals are killing people,

其实结果证明你们的医院在杀人，

and they should be at home.

病人应该在家恢复。

Would you like to close down the trial now,

你们还想让我停止试验呢

or should we wait until we have robust results?"

还是希望等我们得到更确切的结果？”

Tumbleweed

会议室如风滚草

rolls through the meeting room.

卷过一般安静下来

But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.

阿奇喜欢做这样的事情

And the reason he would do that kind of thing

他喜欢这么做的原因是

is because he understood

他知道

it feels so much better

大家更喜欢

to stand there and say,

站在那里说：

"Here in my own little world,

“ 在我的小世界里，

I am a god, I understand everything.

我是上帝， 我懂得一切

I do not want to have my opinions challenged.

我不希望有人挑战我的观点。

I do not want to have my conclusions tested."

我不需要有人来测试我的结论。”

It feels so much more comfortable

简单地定下法则

simply to lay down the law.

然人感到很自在。

Cochrane understood

阿奇懂得

that uncertainty, that fallibility,

他们对那种不肯定的, 易错的

that being challenged, they hurt.

被挑战的感觉感到不爽

And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.

而有的时候我们需要把这种感觉震落掉

Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.

我不想假装这是件容易的事情

It isn't easy.

这并不容易

It's incredibly painful.

它会是个痛苦的过程

And since I started talking about this subject

当我开始谈论这个话题

and researching this subject,

研究这个话题

I've been really haunted by something

我脑海里一直环绕着

a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.

一个日本数学家在这个话题上说的话

So shortly after the war,

战争一结束

this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,

这个年轻人，谷山丰

developed this amazing conjecture

提出了惊人的推测

called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.

谷山-志村猜想

It turned out to be absolutely instrumental

结果几十年后

many decades later

为证明费马最后定理

in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.

奠定了基础

In fact, it turns out it's equivalent

事实，它和费马最后定理是

to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.

同等的

You prove one, you prove the other.

你证明了一个，就证明了另一个

But it was always a conjecture.

但是它只是一个猜想

Taniyama tried and tried and tried

谷山丰试了一遍又一遍

and he could never prove that it was true.

但是他不能证明它是正确的

And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,

1958年他刚刚过了30岁后

Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.

谷山丰结束了自己的生命

His friend, Goro Shimura --

他的朋友，志村五郎

who worked on the mathematics with him --

和他一起研究数学

many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.

几十年后回顾谷山丰的生平时

He said,

他说

"He was not a very careful person

“他不是一个很仔细的人

as a mathematician.

作为一个数学家

He made a lot of mistakes.

他犯了很多错误

But he made mistakes in a good direction.

但是他能朝好的方向犯错

I tried to emulate him,

我想效仿他

but I realized

但是我发现

it is very difficult

能朝好的方向犯错

to make good mistakes."

很难。”

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）