Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

Prevoditelj: Katarina Smetko Recezent: Zlatko Smetisko

It's the Second World War.

Drugi je svjetski rat,

A German prison camp.

njemački zarobljenički kamp,

And this man,

a ovaj čovjek,

Archie Cochrane,

Archie Cochrane,

is a prisoner of war and a doctor,

ratni je zarobljenik i liječnik,

and he has a problem.

i ima problem.

The problem is that the men under his care

Problem je u tome što ljudi o kojima brine

are suffering

pate

from an excruciating and debilitating condition

u iznimno bolnom stanju koje ih je znatno oslabilo,

that Archie doesn't really understand.

a koje Archie baš i ne razumije.

The symptoms

Simptomi su

are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.

strašno nakupljanje tekućine ispod kože.

But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.

No, on ne zna radi li se o infekciji, ima li to veze s pothranjenošću...

He doesn't know how to cure it.

Ne zna kako to liječiti.

And he's operating in a hostile environment.

A radi u neprijateljskom okruženju.

And people do terrible things in wars.

Ljudi u ratu rade grozne stvari.

The German camp guards, they've got bored.

Čuvarima njemačkih kampova postalo je dosadno.

They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random

Počeli su nasumce pucati po zatvoreničkom kampu,

for fun.

iz zabave.

On one particular occasion,

U jednom konkretnom slučaju,

one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory

jedan od čuvara bacio je granatu u kupaonicu koju su koristili zatvorenici

while it was full of prisoners.

i to dok je bila puna zatvorenika.

He said he heard suspicious laughter.

Rekao je da je čuo sumnjiv smijeh.

And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,

Archie Cochrane, kao liječnik u kampu,

was one of the first men in

bio je jedan od prvih koji su došli unutra

to clear up the mess.

kako bi počistili nered.

And one more thing:

I još jedna stvar:

Archie was suffering from this illness himself.

Archie je i sam patio od spomenute bolesti.

So the situation seemed pretty desperate.

Situacija se činila prilično očajnom.

But Archie Cochrane

No, Archie Cochrane

was a resourceful person.

se znao snaći.

He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,

Već je prokrijumčario vitamin C u kamp,

and now he managed

a sad je uspio

to get hold of supplies of marmite

doći do zalihe Marmitea

on the black market.

na crnom tržištu.

Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.

Neki od vas pitat će se što je Marmite.

Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.

Marmite je namaz za doručak koji Britanci obožavaju.

It looks like crude oil.

Izgleda poput sirovog ulja.

It tastes ...

Okus mu je...

zesty.

žestok.

And importantly,

Ono što je bitno

it's a rich source

jest da je bogat

of vitamin B12.

vitaminom B12.

So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can

Archie je podijelio ljude za koje se brinuo

into two equal groups.

u dvije jednake grupe, kako god je najbolje mogao.

He gives half of them vitamin C.

Polovici je dao vitamin C,

He gives half of them vitamin B12.

a polovici vitamin B12.

He very carefully and meticulously notes his results

Pažljivo je i detaljno bilježio rezultate

in an exercise book.

u bilježnicu.

And after just a few days,

Nakon samo nekoliko dana,

it becomes clear

postalo je jasno

that whatever is causing this illness,

kako ono što uzrokuje tu bolest

marmite is the cure.

Marmite može izliječiti.

So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.

Zatim je Cochrane otišao Nijemcima koji su vodili zatvorenički kamp.

Now you've got to imagine at the moment --

Morate zamisliti, u tom trenutku --

forget this photo, imagine this guy

zaboravite ovu fotografiju, zamislite tog čovjeka

with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.

s dugom crvenom bradom i čupavom crvenom kosom.

He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.

Nije se mogao obrijati -- nalikovao je na komičara Billyja Connolyja.

Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans

Cochrane počinje govoriti tim Nijemcima

in this Scottish accent --

sa škotskim naglaskom --

in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --

na tečnom njemačkom, ali sa škotskim naglaskom --

and explains to them how German culture was the culture

i objašnjava im kako je njemačka kultura

that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.

svijetu dala Schillera i Goethea.

And he can't understand

I ne shvaća

how this barbarism can be tolerated,

kako se ovakav barbarizam može tolerirati.

and he vents his frustrations.

Izbacio je svoje frustracije.

And then he goes back to his quarters,

Zatim se vratio u svoje prostorije,

breaks down and weeps

slomio se i zaplakao

because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.

jer je bio uvjeren kako je situacija beznadna.

But a young German doctor

No, mladi njemački liječnik

picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book

pronašao je Archiejevu bilježnicu

and says to his colleagues,

i rekao svojim kolegama:

"This evidence is incontrovertible.

"Ovo su nepobitni dokazi.

If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,

Ako zatvorenike ne opskrbimo vitaminina,

it's a war crime."

činimo ratni zločin."

And the next morning,

Sljedećeg su jutra

supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,

zalihe vitamina B12 dostavljene u kamp

and the prisoners begin to recover.

i zatvorenici su se počeli oporavljati.

Now I'm not telling you this story

Nisam vam ovu priču ispričao

because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,

jer mislim da je Archie Cochrane frajer,

although Archie Cochrane is a dude.

iako Archie Cochrane jest frajer.

I'm not even telling you the story

Ovo vam ne pričam

because I think we should be running

čak ni zato što mislim da bismo trebali vršiti

more carefully controlled randomized trials

pažljivije kontrolirane nasumične pokuse

in all aspects of public policy,

u svim aspektima javne politike,

although I think that would also be completely awesome.

iako mislim da bi i to bilo super.

I'm telling you this story

Ovo vam pričam

because Archie Cochrane, all his life,

jer se Archie Cochrane cijelog života

fought against a terrible affliction,

borio protiv strašne boli.

and he realized it was debilitating to individuals

Shvatio je da to oslabljuje pojedinca

and it was corrosive to societies.

i uništava društva.

And he had a name for it.

Imao je i ime za to.

He called it the God complex.

Nazvao je to kompleksom boga.

Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.

Simptome kompleksa boga mogu vrlo jednostavno opisati.

So the symptoms of the complex

Simptomi ovog kompleksa jesu

are, no matter how complicated the problem,

da, bez obzira na složenost problema,

you have an absolutely overwhelming belief

vi ste apsolutno uvjereni

that you are infallibly right in your solution.

da je vaše rješenje savršeno ispravno.

Now Archie was a doctor,

Archie je bio liječnik,

so he hung around with doctors a lot.

tako da se mnogo družio s drugim liječnicima.

And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.

A liječnici često pate od kompleksa boga.

Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,

Ja sam ekonomist, a ne liječnik,

but I see the God complex around me all the time

ali stalno primjećujem kompleks boga

in my fellow economists.

kod svojih kolega ekonomista.

I see it in our business leaders.

Vidim ga kod vodećih poslovnih ljudi.

I see it in the politicians we vote for --

Vidim ga kod političara za koje glasamo --

people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,

kod ljudi koji su, suočeni s nevjerojatno složenim situacijama,

are nevertheless absolutely convinced

ipak apsolutno uvjereni

that they understand the way that the world works.

da razumiju način na koji svijet funkcionira.

And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,

A znate, sa svim budućim milijardama o kojima slušamo,

the world is simply far too complex

svijet je jednostavno presložen

to understand in that way.

da bi ga se moglo razumjeti na taj način.

Well let me give you an example.

Dat ću vam primjer.

Imagine for a moment

Zamislite na trenutak da,

that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,

umjesto Tima Harforda, pred vama stoji

there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.

Hans Rosling i predstavlja svoje grafove.

You know Hans:

Znate Hansa,

the Mick Jagger of TED.

on je Mick Jagger TED-a.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,

On bi vam pokazivao zadivljujuće statistike,

these amazing animations.

fantastične animacije.

And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.

Sjajne su, to je zaista divan rad.

But a typical Hans Rosling graph:

No, tipični graf Hansa Roslinga,

think for a moment, not what it shows,

razmislite na trenutak, ne o onome što prikazuje,

but think instead about what it leaves out.

već o onome što izostavlja.

So it'll show you GDP per capita,

Prikazat će vam BDP po glavi stanovnika,

population, longevity,

populaciju, životni vijek

that's about it.

i to je više-manje to.

So three pieces of data for each country --

Tri podatka za svaku državu --

three pieces of data.

tri podatka.

Three pieces of data is nothing.

Tri podatka je ništa.

I mean, have a look at this graph.

Mislim, pogledajte ovaj graf.

This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.

Izradio ga je fizičar Cesar Hidalgo.

He's at MIT.

On radi na MIT-u.

Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,

Nećete razumjeti baš ništa,

but this is what it looks like.

ali tako izgleda.

Cesar has trolled the database

Cesar je pretražio bazu podataka

of over 5,000 different products,

s oko 5000 različitih proizvoda

and he's used techniques of network analysis

i koristio je tehnike analize mreža

to interrogate this database

kako bi ispitao tu bazu

and to graph relationships between the different products.

i na grafu prikazao veze između različitih proizvoda.

And it's wonderful, wonderful work.

To je zaista prekrasan rad.

You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.

Prikazujete sve ove međusobne veze, sve ove međusobne odnose.

And I think it'll be profoundly useful

Mislim da će biti zaista koristan

in understanding how it is that economies grow.

za razumijevanje načina na koji se gospodarstva razvijaju.

Brilliant work.

Sjajan rad.

Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine

Cesar i ja pokušali smo napisati članak za časopis New York Times

explaining how this works.

u kojem bismo objasnili kako to funkcionira.

And what we learned

Ono što smo naučili

is Cesar's work is far too good to explain

jest da je Cesarov rad predobar da bi se objasnio

in The New York Times Magazine.

u časopisu New York Times.

Five thousand products --

5000 proizvoda --

that's still nothing.

to je još uvijek ništa.

Five thousand products --

5000 proizvoda --

imagine counting every product category

zamislite da uključite sve kategorije proizvoda

in Cesar Hidalgo's data.

u podatke Cesara Hidalga.

Imagine you had one second

Zamislite da imate po jednu sekundu

per product category.

za svaku kategoriju proizvoda.

In about the length of this session,

Otprilike za vrijeme trajanja ovog govora

you would have counted all 5,000.

izbrojili biste svih 5000.

Now imagine doing the same thing

A sada zamislite da učinite isto to

for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.

za svaki pojedini proizvod na rasprodaji u supermarketu.

There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.

Ima ih više od 100.000. Trebao vi vam cijeli dan.

Now imagine trying to count

A sad zamislite da pokušate izbrojiti

every different specific product and service

svaki pojedini proizvod i uslugu

on sale in a major economy

na rasprodaji u nekom velikom gospodarstvu,

such as Tokyo, London or New York.

primjerice u Tokiju, Londonu ili New Yorku.

It's even more difficult in Edinburgh

Još je i teže u Edinburghu

because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.

jer morate izbrojiti sav viski i tartan.

If you wanted to count every product and service

Kad biste željeli izbrojiti svaki proizvod i uslugu

on offer in New York --

koji se nude u New Yorku --

there are 10 billion of them --

ima ih 10 milijardi --

it would take you 317 years.

trebalo bi vam 317 godina.

This is how complex the economy we've created is.

Toliko je složeno gospodarstvo koje smo stvorili.

And I'm just counting toasters here.

A sada samo brojim tostere.

I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.

Ne pokušavam riješiti problem Bliskog istoka.

The complexity here is unbelievable.

Složenost je nevjerojatna.

And just a piece of context --

Samo djelić konteksta --

the societies in which our brains evolved

društva u kojima su naši mozgovi evoluirali

had about 300 products and services.

imala su oko 300 proizvoda i usluga.

You could count them in five minutes.

Možete ih nabrojiti u pet minuta.

So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.

Takva je složenost svijeta koji nas okružuje.

This perhaps is why

Možda nam je zbog toga

we find the God complex so tempting.

komples boga toliko privlačan.

We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,

Skloni smo se povući i reći: "Možemo nacrtati sliku,

we can post some graphs,

možemo objaviti nekoliko grafova,

we get it, we understand how this works."

shvaćamo, razumijemo kako ovo funkcionira."

And we don't.

A nije tako.

We never do.

Nikad ne razumijemo.

Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.

Ne pokušam poslati nihilističku poruku.

I'm not trying to say we can't solve

Ne želim reći da ne možemo riješiti

complicated problems in a complicated world.

složene probleme u složenom svijetu.

We clearly can.

Očito možemo.

But the way we solve them

Ali na koji ćemo ih riješiti

is with humility --

jest poniznošću --

to abandon the God complex

napuštanjem kompleksa boga

and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.

primjenjivanjem tehnike rješavanja problema koja zaista funkcionira.

And we have a problem-solving technique that works.

A imamo tehniku rješavanja problema koja funkcionira.

Now you show me

Pokažite mi

a successful complex system,

uspješan složen sustav,

and I will show you a system

a ja ću vam pokazati sustav

that has evolved through trial and error.

koji je nastao kroz pokušaje i pogreške.

Here's an example.

Evo primjera.

This baby was produced through trial and error.

Ovo dijete nastalo je metodom pokušaja i pogreške.

I realize that's an ambiguous statement.

Shvaćam da je to dvosmislena izjava.

Maybe I should clarify it.

Možda bih je trebao pojasniti.

This baby is a human body: it evolved.

Ovo je dijete ljudsko tijelo: evoluiralo je.

What is evolution?

Što je evolucija?

Over millions of years, variation and selection,

Milijunima godina, varijacija i selekcija,

variation and selection --

varijacija i selekcija --

trial and error,

pokušaji i pogreške,

trial and error.

pokušaji i pogreške.

And it's not just biological systems

Nije tako samo s biološkim sustavima

that produce miracles through trial and error.

koji rade čuda kroz pokušaje i pogreške.

You could use it in an industrial context.

Možete to primijeniti i u kontekstu industrije.

So let's say you wanted to make detergent.

Recimo da želite proizvesti deterdžent.

Let's say you're Unilever

Recimo da ste vi Unilever

and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.

i želite proizvesti deterdžent u tvornici pokraj Liverpoola.

How do you do it?

Kako ćete to učiniti?

Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.

Imate veliki spremnik pun tekućeg deterdženta.

You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.

Pumpate ga pod visokim pritiskom kroz štrcaljku.

You create a spray of detergent.

Nastaje deterdžent u spreju.

Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.

Zatim se sprej osuši i pretvara se u prah.

It falls to the floor.

Pada na pod.

You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.

Pokupite ga i stavite u kartonske kutije.

You sell it at a supermarket.

Prodajete ga u supermarketima.

You make lots of money.

Zaradite mnogo novca.

How do you design that nozzle?

Kako dizajnirati tu štrcaljku?

It turns out to be very important.

Ispada da je to vrlo bitno.

Now if you ascribe to the God complex,

Ako to pripišete kompleksu boga,

what you do is you find yourself a little God.

morate pronaći "malog Boga"

You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --

Pronađete matematičara ili fizičara --

somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.

nekoga tko razumije dinamiku te tekućine.

And he will, or she will,

I tada će on, ili ona,

calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.

odrediti optimalni dizajn štrcaljke.

Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --

Unilever je to učinio i nije funkcioniralo --

too complicated.

bilo je previše komplicirano.

Even this problem, too complicated.

Čak je i taj problem previše kompliciran.

But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones

No, profesor genetike Steve Jones

describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --

opisuje kako je Unilever zapravo riješio ovaj problem --

trial and error,

metodom pokušaja i pogreške,

variation and selection.

varijacijom i selekcijom.

You take a nozzle

Uzmete štrcaljku

and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.

i izradite 10 nasumičnih varijanti štrcaljke.

You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.

Isprobate svih 10 i zadržite onu koja radi najbolje.

You create 10 variations on that one.

Napravite 10 varijanti te jedne.

You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.

Isprobate svih 10 i zadržite onu koja radi najbolje.

You try out 10 variations on that one.

Isprobate 10 varijanti te...

You see how this works, right?

Vidite kako to ide, zar ne?

And after 45 generations,

Nakon 45 generacija,

you have this incredible nozzle.

dobijete ovu nevjerojatnu štrcaljku.

It looks a bit like a chess piece --

Pomalo naliči šahovskoj figuri --

functions absolutely brilliantly.

funkcionira apsolutno fantastično.

We have no idea

Nemamo pojma

why it works,

zašto radi,

no idea at all.

uopće nemamo pojma.

And the moment you step back from the God complex --

Onog trenutka kad se odmaknemo od kompleksa boga --

let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;

pokušajmo samo skupiti hrpu stvari,

let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --

odredimo na sustavan način što radi, a što ne --

you can solve your problem.

možete riješiti svoj problem.

Now this process of trial and error

Taj proces pokušaja i pogreške

is actually far more common in successful institutions

zapravo je mnogo češći u uspješnim institucijama

than we care to recognize.

nego što smo mi to voljni primijetiti.

And we've heard a lot about how economies function.

Čuli smo mnogo toga o načinu na koji gospodarstva funkcioniraju.

The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.

Američko gospodarstvo još je uvijek najveće na svijetu.

How did it become the world's greatest economy?

Kako je postalo najveće gospodarstvo na svijetu?

I could give you all kinds of facts and figures

Mogao bih vam prestaviti razne podatke

about the U.S. economy,

o američkom gospodarstvu,

but I think the most salient one is this:

ali mislim da je ovaj najbitniji:

ten percent of American businesses

deset posto američkih tvrtki

disappear every year.

nestaje svake godine.

That is a huge failure rate.

To je velik postotak neuspjeha.

It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.

Mnogo je veći nego, recimo, postotak neuspjeha kod Amerikanaca.

Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.

Svake godine ne nestaje deset posto Amerikanaca.

Which leads us to conclude

Iz toga možemo zaključiti

American businesses fail faster than Americans,

da američke tvrtke propadaju brže nego Amerikanci,

and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.

dakle američke se tvrtke razvijaju brže nego Amerikanci.

And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection

Na kraju će se razviti do takvog stupnja savršenstva

that they will make us all their pets --

da će nas sve učiniti svojim kućnim ljubimcima --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

if, of course, they haven't already done so.

ako, naravno, to već nisu učinile.

I sometimes wonder.

Ponekad se pitam.

But it's this process of trial and error

Ali upravo taj proces pokušaja i pogrešaka

that explains this great divergence,

objašnjava tu veliku razliku,

this incredible performance of Western economies.

tu nevjerojatno uspješnost zapadnjačkih gospodarstava.

It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.

Nije do toga došlo jer je netko strašno pametan bio šef.

It's come through trial and error.

Do toga je došlo pokušajima i pogreškama.

Now I've been sort of banging on about this

O ovome trubim

for the last couple of months,

posljednjih nekoliko mjeseci

and people sometimes say to me,

i ljudi mi ponekad kažu:

"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.

"Pa, Time, to je prilično očito.

Obviously trial and error is very important.

Očito je da su pokušaji i pogreške vrlo bitni.

Obviously experimentation is very important.

Očito je da su eksperimenti vrlo bitni.

Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"

Zašto lunjaš uokolo i govoriš očite stvari?"

So I say, okay, fine.

Na to kažem, OK, u redu.

You think it's obvious?

Mislite da je to očito?

I will admit it's obvious

Priznat ću da je očito

when schools

kad škole

start teaching children

počnu učiti djecu

that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.

da postoje problemi za koje ne postoji točn odgovor.

Stop giving them lists of questions

Prestanite im davati popise pitanja

every single one of which has an answer.

od kojih svako ima odgovor.

And there's an authority figure in the corner

A osoba s pozicijom autoriteta stoji u kutu

behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.

ili za učiteljskim stolom i zna sve odgovore.

And if you can't find the answers,

A ako ne možete pronaći odgovore,

you must be lazy or stupid.

mora da ste lijeni ili glupi.

When schools stop doing that all the time,

Kd škole to prestanu stalno raditi,

I will admit that, yes,

priznat ću da, da,

it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.

očito je da su pokušaji i pogreške dobra stvar.

When a politician stands up

Kad političar istupi

campaigning for elected office

u kampanji za izbore

and says, "I want to fix our health system.

i kaže: "Želim popraviti naš zdravsteni sustav.

I want to fix our education system.

Želim popraviti naš obrazovni sustav.

I have no idea how to do it.

Nemam pojma kako da to učinim.

I have half a dozen ideas.

Imam 5-6 ideja.

We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.

Isprobat ćemo ih. Ni jedna vjerojatno neće uspjeti.

Then we'll test some other ideas out.

Zatim ćemo isprobati neke druge ideje.

We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.

Pronaći ćemo neke koje funkcioniraju. Njih ćemo razvijati.

We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --

Riješit ćemo se loših."

when a politician campaigns on that platform,

Kad političar bude imao takvu kampanju,

and more importantly, when voters like you and me

i, još bitnije, kad će glasači poput vas i mene

are willing to vote for that kind of politician,

biti voljni glasati za takvog političara,

then I will admit

tada ću priznati

that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.

da je očito da pokušaji i pogreške funkcioniraju i da -- hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Until then, until then

Do tada, do tada ću

I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error

i dalje trubiti o pokušajima i pogreškama

and why we should abandon the God complex.

i o tome zašto bismo se trebali riješiti kompleksa boga.

Because it's so hard

Jer tako je teško

to admit our own fallibility.

priznati vlastitu pogrešivost.

It's so uncomfortable.

To je tako neugodno.

And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.

Archie Cochrane je to razumio jednako dobro kao i svi.

There's this one trial he ran

Provodio je jedan pokus

many years after World War II.

mnogo godina nakon Drugog svetskog rata.

He wanted to test out

Želio je istražiti

the question of, where is it

gdje bi se

that patients should recover

pacijenti trebali oporavljati

from heart attacks?

od srčanih udara?

Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,

Bi li se trebali oporavljati na specijaliziranom odjelu u bolnici

or should they recover at home?

ili bi se trebali oporavljati kod kuće?

All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.

Svi kardiolozi htjeli su ga ušutkati.

They had the God complex in spades.

Bili su naoružani kompleksom boga.

They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,

Znali su da su njihove bolnice pravo mjesto za pacijente

and they knew it was very unethical

i znali su da je vrlo neetički

to run any kind of trial or experiment.

bilo što pokušavati ili provoditi pokuse.

Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.

Unatoč tome, Archie je uspio dobiti dopuštenje da to učini.

He ran his trial.

Krenuo je s tim pokusom.

And after the trial had been running for a little while,

Nakon što je pokus trajao neko vrijeme,

he gathered together all his colleagues

okupio je sve svoje kolege

around his table,

oko svojeg stola

and he said, "Well, gentlemen,

i rekao: "Pa, gospodo,

we have some preliminary results.

dobili smo preliminarne rezultate.

They're not statistically significant.

Nisu statistički značajni.

But we have something.

Ali imamo nešto.

And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.

Ispada da ste vi u pravu, a ja u krivu.

It is dangerous for patients

Opasno je da se pacijenti

to recover from heart attacks at home.

od srčanog udara oporavljaju kod kuće.

They should be in hospital."

Trebali bi biti u bolnici."

And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table

Počeo je negodovanje, svi su liječnici udarali o stol

and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.

i govorili: "Oduvijek smo znali da si neetičan, Archie.

You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.

Ubijš ljude svojim kliničkim pokusima. Moraš prekinuti s time.

Shut it down at once."

Prestani odmah."

And there's this huge hubbub.

Nastala je velika galama.

Archie lets it die down.

Archie ih je pustio da utihnu.

And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,

Zatim je rekao: "To je vrlo zanimljivo, gospodo,

because when I gave you the table of results,

jer kad sam vam pokazao tablicu s rezultatima,

I swapped the two columns around.

zamijenio sam stupce.

It turns out your hospitals are killing people,

Pokazalo se da vaše bolnice ubijaju ljude

and they should be at home.

i da bi trebali biti kod kuće.

Would you like to close down the trial now,

Biste li željeli da sad prekinemo s pokusom

or should we wait until we have robust results?"

ili da pričekamo konkretnije rezultate?)

Tumbleweed

Ni muha se nije čula

rolls through the meeting room.

u toj sobi za sastanke.

But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.

Ali Cochraneu je i slično da učini nešto takvo.

And the reason he would do that kind of thing

A razlog zašto je to učinio

is because he understood

jest taj da je razumio

it feels so much better

da je mnogo bolji osjećaj

to stand there and say,

stajati ondje i reći:

"Here in my own little world,

"Ovdje, u mojem malom svijetu,

I am a god, I understand everything.

ja sam bog, ja razumijem sve.

I do not want to have my opinions challenged.

Ne želim da se moje mišljenje dovodi u pitanje.

I do not want to have my conclusions tested."

Ne želim da se moji zaključci preispituju."

It feels so much more comfortable

Osjećam se mnogo ugodnije

simply to lay down the law.

kad jednostavno odredim pravila.

Cochrane understood

Cochrane je razumio

that uncertainty, that fallibility,

da nesigurnost, pogrešivost,

that being challenged, they hurt.

dovođenje u pitanje -- to boli.

And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.

Ponekad je potreban šok da se toga riješite.

Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.

Neću vam reći da je to lako.

It isn't easy.

Nije lako.

It's incredibly painful.

To je nevjerojatno bolno.

And since I started talking about this subject

Otkad sam počeo govoriti o ovoj temi

and researching this subject,

i istraživati je,

I've been really haunted by something

progoni me nešto

a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.

što je jedan japanski matematičar rekao o tome.

So shortly after the war,

Ubrzo nakon rata,

this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,

taj mladi čovjek, Yutaka Taniyama,

developed this amazing conjecture

razvio je izvanrednu pretpostavku,

called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.

Taniyama-Shimurinu pretpostavku.

It turned out to be absolutely instrumental

Ispalo je da je apsolutno nužna

many decades later

mnogo desetljeća kasnije

in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.

za dokazivanje Fermatovog Posljednjeg teorema.

In fact, it turns out it's equivalent

Zapravo, pokazalo se da je ekvivalentan

to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.

dokazivanju Fermatovog posljednjeg teorema.

You prove one, you prove the other.

Ako dokažete jedno, dokazali ste i drugo.

But it was always a conjecture.

Ali to je uvijek bila pretpostavka.

Taniyama tried and tried and tried

Taniyama je pokušavao i pokušavao

and he could never prove that it was true.

i nikad nije mogao dokazati da je istinita.

And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,

Ubrzo nkon njegovog 30. rođendana 1958. godine,

Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.

Yutaka Taniyama počinio je samoubojstvo.

His friend, Goro Shimura --

Njegov prijatelj, Goro Shimura --

who worked on the mathematics with him --

koji je s njim radio na toj matematici --

many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.

mnogo desetljeća kasnije, razmišljao je o Taniyaminom životu.

He said,

Rekao je:

"He was not a very careful person

"Nije bio baš oprezna osoba

as a mathematician.

kao matematičar.

He made a lot of mistakes.

Činio je mnogo pogrešaka.

But he made mistakes in a good direction.

Ali činio je pogreške u dobrom smjeru.

I tried to emulate him,

Pokušavao sam ga kopirati,

but I realized

ali shvatio sam

it is very difficult

da je vrlo teško

to make good mistakes."

činiti dobre pogreške."

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)