Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

342,058 views ・ 2011-07-15

TED


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譯者: Cheng-An Li 審譯者: Jenny Yang
00:15
It's the Second World War.
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這是在第二次世界大戰時
00:17
A German prison camp.
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德國的一個戰俘營
00:20
And this man,
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而這位軍人
00:23
Archie Cochrane,
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是已故英國臨床流行病學者亞契.柯克倫(Archie Cochrane)
00:26
is a prisoner of war and a doctor,
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既是戰俘也是醫生,
00:29
and he has a problem.
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他當時有個難題
00:32
The problem is that the men under his care
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多名接受他治療的病人
00:35
are suffering
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正飽受令人費解之病痛
00:37
from an excruciating and debilitating condition
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這種病使患者感到劇烈疼痛, 渾身無力
00:40
that Archie doesn't really understand.
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亞契苦思不得其解
00:43
The symptoms
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他們的症狀
00:45
are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.
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是皮下嚴重水腫
00:48
But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.
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然而他無法確定水腫是由病菌所感染, 還是營養不良所引起
00:51
He doesn't know how to cure it.
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那時,他遍尋不著良方
00:53
And he's operating in a hostile environment.
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更何況那是在惡劣的環境之下
00:56
And people do terrible things in wars.
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兵馬倥傯戰亂之中
00:58
The German camp guards, they've got bored.
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德軍軍營守衛如果閒著無聊
01:01
They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random
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就對戰俘營裡恣意掃射
01:03
for fun.
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打發時間並尋開心。
01:05
On one particular occasion,
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某次
01:07
one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory
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一名警衛扔手榴彈
01:10
while it was full of prisoners.
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到人滿為患的犯人廁所內。
01:13
He said he heard suspicious laughter.
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守衛的理由是,他聽到可疑的笑聲。
01:15
And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,
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亞契.柯克倫 ,這名營區的醫生,
01:18
was one of the first men in
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是首批進去收拾善後,
01:20
to clear up the mess.
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處理慘狀的人之一。
01:22
And one more thing:
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另外,
01:24
Archie was suffering from this illness himself.
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亞契也身染該病。
01:27
So the situation seemed pretty desperate.
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這千鈞一髮的情況下,
01:30
But Archie Cochrane
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足智多謀的亞契
01:32
was a resourceful person.
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想辦法取得資源
01:35
He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,
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悄悄地走私維他命C進去營區
01:38
and now he managed
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而且當時
01:40
to get hold of supplies of marmite
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他還設法換取
01:42
on the black market.
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黑市裡的麴精
01:44
Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.
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在座的各位,也許正在猜想麴精是什麼?
01:47
Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.
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其實那是英式早餐的一種麵包醬
01:50
It looks like crude oil.
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外型看似未提煉的原油,黝黑色。
01:52
It tastes ...
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嘗起來
01:54
zesty.
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棒透了。
01:56
And importantly,
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更重要的是,
01:58
it's a rich source
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麵包裡富含
02:00
of vitamin B12.
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維他命B12。
02:02
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can
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亞契將這群他苦心照料的病人
02:05
into two equal groups.
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分成兩組。
02:07
He gives half of them vitamin C.
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一組餵以維他命C。
02:09
He gives half of them vitamin B12.
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另一組則以維他命B12。
02:12
He very carefully and meticulously notes his results
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醫生鉅細靡遺地
02:15
in an exercise book.
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在筆記簿上記下結果。
02:17
And after just a few days,
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數日之後,
02:19
it becomes clear
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一切撥雲見日。
02:21
that whatever is causing this illness,
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無論病因為何,
02:24
marmite is the cure.
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麵包醬就是解藥。
02:27
So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.
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因此,柯克倫便去見德軍營長,
02:30
Now you've got to imagine at the moment --
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在座的各位,試想在此時此刻--
02:32
forget this photo, imagine this guy
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先把這張照片丟至九霄雲外,只要想像
02:34
with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.
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一下巴剪不斷理還亂的鬍鬚,和一頭震懾人的紅髮
02:37
He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.
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許久未能整理儀容,猶如比利康諾利的柯克倫
02:40
Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans
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朝著這些德國人咆哮
02:42
in this Scottish accent --
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帶著蘇格蘭口音
02:44
in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --
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卻極其流利的德文
02:47
and explains to them how German culture was the culture
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數落對方,坐擁孕育世界偉人席勒和歌德
02:50
that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.
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的偉大文化
02:52
And he can't understand
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竟能容忍這些野蠻行徑。
02:54
how this barbarism can be tolerated,
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他完全無法理解這些德國人。
02:56
and he vents his frustrations.
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他發完這頓牢騷之後,
02:59
And then he goes back to his quarters,
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踱步回房。
03:02
breaks down and weeps
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情緒失控,落下男兒淚。
03:05
because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.
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畢竟他認為情況陷入絕望,束手無策。
03:10
But a young German doctor
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此時,一名年輕的德軍軍醫
03:13
picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book
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拾起亞契.科克倫的筆記簿
03:16
and says to his colleagues,
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對同僚說:
03:20
"This evidence is incontrovertible.
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「事實擺在眼前,
03:25
If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,
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倘若我們再不提供戰俘維他命,
03:28
it's a war crime."
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會有違人道。」
03:30
And the next morning,
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於是,翌日清晨,
03:32
supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,
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營區便提供維他命B12補給
03:35
and the prisoners begin to recover.
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而戰俘便逐漸好轉。
03:39
Now I'm not telling you this story
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我敘述這個故事的原因
03:41
because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,
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並非因為我視亞契.柯克倫為堂堂漢子
03:43
although Archie Cochrane is a dude.
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雖然他的確也是。
03:47
I'm not even telling you the story
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講這個故事的理由是
03:49
because I think we should be running
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我們都該更
03:51
more carefully controlled randomized trials
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小心去掌控公共政策的所有層面
03:53
in all aspects of public policy,
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下的隨機試驗。
03:55
although I think that would also be completely awesome.
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即便,個人淺見,隨機試驗本身其實很棒。
03:59
I'm telling you this story
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向各位闡述故事是為了
04:01
because Archie Cochrane, all his life,
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解釋亞契. 柯克倫,
04:04
fought against a terrible affliction,
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終其一生與苦難對抗
04:08
and he realized it was debilitating to individuals
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而他明瞭,苦難對個體的蠶食
04:12
and it was corrosive to societies.
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對整個社會的鯨吞。
04:14
And he had a name for it.
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他將此命名為:
04:16
He called it the God complex.
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上帝情結。
04:19
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.
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接下來,為各位簡述上帝情結的症狀。
04:23
So the symptoms of the complex
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這些症狀就像是
04:26
are, no matter how complicated the problem,
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無論遭遇的問題有多錯綜複雜
04:29
you have an absolutely overwhelming belief
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你總是有無與倫比的信心
04:32
that you are infallibly right in your solution.
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總而言之,你認為你的解決之道正確且毋庸置疑
04:36
Now Archie was a doctor,
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身為一名醫生,
04:38
so he hung around with doctors a lot.
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亞契與醫生為伍
04:40
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.
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醫生很容易有上帝情結。
04:43
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,
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而我是一名經濟學家,並非醫生,
04:45
but I see the God complex around me all the time
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在我眼裡,患有上帝情結的經濟學者,
04:47
in my fellow economists.
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比比皆是。
04:49
I see it in our business leaders.
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舉凡企業頭子、
04:51
I see it in the politicians we vote for --
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甚至是我們票選出的政治人物。
04:53
people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,
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這些人,身處在複雜程度難以置信的世界裡,
04:57
are nevertheless absolutely convinced
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卻百分百相信
05:00
that they understand the way that the world works.
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世界的運轉,自己瞭若指掌
05:03
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,
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在座各位也曉得,我們將與未來的數十億人口共存,
05:06
the world is simply far too complex
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如果還是用老法子去思考,
05:08
to understand in that way.
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是難以理解這複雜的世界。
05:10
Well let me give you an example.
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讓我為各位舉個例子。
05:12
Imagine for a moment
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花幾秒想像一下
05:14
that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,
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站在台上的人不是我,
05:16
there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.
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而是漢斯.羅史齡,在展示圖表。
05:19
You know Hans:
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各位眼中的漢斯:
05:21
the Mick Jagger of TED.
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就好比TED集團的米克.傑格。
05:23
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:25
And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,
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他會秀出這些驚人的數據,
05:27
these amazing animations.
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讚為觀止的動畫。
05:29
And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.
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這挺棒的!
05:31
But a typical Hans Rosling graph:
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一個典型的漢斯.羅史齡會用的圖表:
05:33
think for a moment, not what it shows,
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試想圖表除了本身,
05:36
but think instead about what it leaves out.
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還喻含的意義。
05:39
So it'll show you GDP per capita,
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各位將會看到國內生產毛額、
05:42
population, longevity,
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人口、壽命,
05:44
that's about it.
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大概就是這些東西。
05:46
So three pieces of data for each country --
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若每個國家都
05:48
three pieces of data.
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列舉三種資訊
05:50
Three pieces of data is nothing.
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才三種並沒有什麼。
05:52
I mean, have a look at this graph.
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且讓我們看一下該表。
05:54
This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.
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我指的是這個物理學家所作的表。
05:56
He's at MIT.
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凱薩.荷德果 畢業於MIT(麻省理工)。
05:58
Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,
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目前各位可能一點也看不懂這個表。
06:00
but this is what it looks like.
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但看起來像是這樣子。
06:02
Cesar has trolled the database
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凱薩把逾5000多筆的產品的資料庫
06:04
of over 5,000 different products,
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提取分析。
06:07
and he's used techniques of network analysis
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利用網路分析的技術
06:12
to interrogate this database
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藉此整合資料庫,
06:14
and to graph relationships between the different products.
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並將不同結果間的關係視覺圖像化。
06:16
And it's wonderful, wonderful work.
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創出這件傑出的作品,
06:18
You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.
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所有的互動、交互關聯一目了然。
06:21
And I think it'll be profoundly useful
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欲瞭解經濟如何成長,
06:23
in understanding how it is that economies grow.
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看這個圖表便能略知一二。
06:26
Brilliant work.
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真是傑作。
06:28
Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine
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凱薩和我試圖替紐時雜誌撰寫一篇文章,
06:30
explaining how this works.
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藉此解釋運作方式。
06:32
And what we learned
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從中,我們習得的是
06:34
is Cesar's work is far too good to explain
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僅一篇的篇幅,不夠解釋
06:36
in The New York Times Magazine.
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凱薩的傑作。
06:40
Five thousand products --
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5000筆結果
06:43
that's still nothing.
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不費吹灰之力。
06:45
Five thousand products --
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5000筆結果耶!
06:47
imagine counting every product category
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試想算出每個
06:49
in Cesar Hidalgo's data.
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在資料庫裡的分類
06:51
Imagine you had one second
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一秒鐘
06:53
per product category.
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能算出的分類結果。
06:55
In about the length of this session,
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同個時間範圍內,
06:58
you would have counted all 5,000.
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各位會得到5000筆。
07:00
Now imagine doing the same thing
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如果,如法炮製到
07:02
for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.
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沃爾瑪超市內特價的各種商品
07:05
There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.
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那裡有十萬種商品,數完要花上一整天的時間。
07:08
Now imagine trying to count
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試想,
07:10
every different specific product and service
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在一個主要的經濟體內,像是在東京、倫敦或紐約
07:13
on sale in a major economy
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計算在打折的
07:15
such as Tokyo, London or New York.
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每種不同的產品和服務。
07:17
It's even more difficult in Edinburgh
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算愛丁堡內的甚至會難上加難,
07:19
because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.
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因為還得加算威士忌和格子呢。
07:22
If you wanted to count every product and service
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假設想算出每種
07:24
on offer in New York --
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在紐約所提供的不同的產品和服務--
07:26
there are 10 billion of them --
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答案將會是100億個
07:28
it would take you 317 years.
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各位得花317年才算得出來
07:31
This is how complex the economy we've created is.
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這就是人類所孕育出,無比複雜的經濟。
07:34
And I'm just counting toasters here.
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而我不過就是在這裡算吐司麵包。
07:36
I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.
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並不想解決中東問題。
07:39
The complexity here is unbelievable.
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這裡的複雜性令人難以置信。
07:42
And just a piece of context --
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只要一小塊人腦
07:44
the societies in which our brains evolved
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所創造出的社會
07:46
had about 300 products and services.
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就擁有逾300樣的產品與服務。
07:48
You could count them in five minutes.
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卻只消五分鐘便算完了。
07:51
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
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這就是我們周遭複雜的世界
07:54
This perhaps is why
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也許
07:56
we find the God complex so tempting.
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這就是為何上帝情結誘人。
07:59
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,
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我們嘗試要撤退並聲明「我們可以畫圖,
08:02
we can post some graphs,
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我們可以張貼圖表,
08:04
we get it, we understand how this works."
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我們全盤瞭解世界的遊戲規則。」
08:07
And we don't.
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然而,事實並非如此。
08:09
We never do.
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我們的能力從未所及。
08:11
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
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我並無要散播虛無主義的用意
08:13
I'm not trying to say we can't solve
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也不是暗指我們無法解決
08:15
complicated problems in a complicated world.
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複雜世界裡的複雜問題。
08:17
We clearly can.
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顯然,我們能。
08:19
But the way we solve them
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但是用的是
08:21
is with humility --
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謙虛--
08:23
to abandon the God complex
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放棄上帝情結
08:25
and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
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找出真正解決之道
08:28
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
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我們的確擁有有效的解決之道
08:31
Now you show me
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假設在座的各位
08:33
a successful complex system,
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拿給我一個成功且複雜的系統
08:35
and I will show you a system
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那我會還給你們
08:38
that has evolved through trial and error.
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一個經過試驗和錯誤失敗中重生的系統
08:40
Here's an example.
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舉個例子。
08:42
This baby was produced through trial and error.
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經過測試,這個寶寶出生了。
08:46
I realize that's an ambiguous statement.
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我的說法有點模稜兩可
08:49
Maybe I should clarify it.
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也許我該修飾一下
08:51
This baby is a human body: it evolved.
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這是進化過的人類嬰兒
08:54
What is evolution?
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何謂進化?
08:56
Over millions of years, variation and selection,
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歷經數百萬年的
08:59
variation and selection --
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演進天擇,
09:02
trial and error,
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測試和
09:04
trial and error.
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從錯誤中修正。
09:07
And it's not just biological systems
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這不僅是從試驗和錯誤中
09:09
that produce miracles through trial and error.
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產下的奇蹟。
09:11
You could use it in an industrial context.
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若放到工業的框架下
09:13
So let's say you wanted to make detergent.
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假設各位要製造清潔劑
09:15
Let's say you're Unilever
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設想我們是聯合利華股份有限公司
09:17
and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
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想在利物浦附近的工廠生產清潔劑
09:20
How do you do it?
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該如何下手?
09:22
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.
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目前有滿滿的一大桶清潔液
09:25
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.
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先利用高壓將清潔液從管口抽出。
09:27
You create a spray of detergent.
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然後把清潔液灑成霧狀
09:30
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.
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待噴霧乾凅,便轉成粉末。
09:32
It falls to the floor.
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落到地面。
09:34
You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.
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用勺子取出,放置到紙盒。
09:36
You sell it at a supermarket.
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拿到超市販售。
09:38
You make lots of money.
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錢財滾滾來。
09:40
How do you design that nozzle?
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高壓管該如何設計?
09:43
It turns out to be very important.
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這個很重要。
09:46
Now if you ascribe to the God complex,
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倘若當下,各位患了上帝情結的大頭症
09:48
what you do is you find yourself a little God.
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你們可能誤以為,自己跟上帝也相去不遠。
09:51
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --
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自以為是數學家、物理學家,
09:54
somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.
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或是理解液體動學的某人
09:57
And he will, or she will,
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然後就會
10:00
calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.
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計算出最佳的噴管設計
10:03
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --
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不過,聯合利華也這麼做,卻沒效
10:05
too complicated.
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因為太複雜了。
10:07
Even this problem, too complicated.
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就連這樣的問題,都複雜。
10:10
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones
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基因學者史帝芬.瓊斯
10:13
describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --
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描述聯合利華是如何解決問題
10:16
trial and error,
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經由試驗和錯誤,
10:18
variation and selection.
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變異和選擇。
10:20
You take a nozzle
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選個管子
10:22
and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.
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10種隨機變異製造的管子
10:26
You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.
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10種都試試看,然後留下最好用的那只。
10:29
You create 10 variations on that one.
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以那只為基礎,繼續做出10種。
10:31
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.
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全都測試。然後留下最棒的。
10:34
You try out 10 variations on that one.
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再從屏雀中選的那一只,繼續測試。
10:36
You see how this works, right?
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各位眼見為憑。
10:38
And after 45 generations,
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在45輪的測試後,
10:40
you have this incredible nozzle.
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擁有了這只無敵的噴管
10:42
It looks a bit like a chess piece --
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外型看似西洋棋
10:44
functions absolutely brilliantly.
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運作完美
10:47
We have no idea
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我們對於為何它運作無礙
10:49
why it works,
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毫無頭緒
10:51
no idea at all.
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打破頭腦也想不出來
10:53
And the moment you step back from the God complex --
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此時,各位回到上帝情結的大頭症
10:55
let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;
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讓我們來測試這一堆
10:57
let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --
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系統化精密計算過的管子
11:00
you can solve your problem.
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一樣可以解決問題
11:02
Now this process of trial and error
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但是經由測試和錯誤
11:04
is actually far more common in successful institutions
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實際上成功率比較高,
11:07
than we care to recognize.
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高過我們所認為的機率。
11:09
And we've heard a lot about how economies function.
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我們時有所聞經濟如何運作的方式。
11:12
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.
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美國的經濟體仍是世界的龍頭。
11:16
How did it become the world's greatest economy?
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如何才能成為世界最大的經濟體呢?
11:19
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures
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我可以提供各位五花八門的事實和數據
11:21
about the U.S. economy,
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只要關於美國,應有盡有。
11:23
but I think the most salient one is this:
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然而,個人所見,其中最重要的一點是;
11:26
ten percent of American businesses
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每年,
11:29
disappear every year.
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美國有10%的商業實體消失。
11:32
That is a huge failure rate.
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這個數據意味著驚人的失敗率。
11:35
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.
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比起美國的人口數,高的太多。
11:37
Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.
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美國人口不會每年遞減10%。
11:40
Which leads us to conclude
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總結一句,
11:42
American businesses fail faster than Americans,
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比起美國人,美國的企業太容易被淘汰,
11:45
and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
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因此美國的企業經營進化神速。
11:48
And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection
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以致於,經營模式演化至完美極致
11:51
that they will make us all their pets --
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使我們都成為他們的搖擺狗。
11:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
11:56
if, of course, they haven't already done so.
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如果,他們還沒這麼做的話。
11:59
I sometimes wonder.
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我不時在想
12:02
But it's this process of trial and error
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試驗和錯誤
12:04
that explains this great divergence,
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解釋中間的巨大差異
12:08
this incredible performance of Western economies.
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西方經濟表現出色,
12:11
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.
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並非靠一群絕頂聰明之人掌權。
12:14
It's come through trial and error.
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靠得是透過不斷試驗和從錯誤中學習。
12:16
Now I've been sort of banging on about this
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過去的幾個月以來,
12:18
for the last couple of months,
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我反覆思量這個概念。
12:20
and people sometimes say to me,
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周遭的人們會對我說:「提姆,
12:22
"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.
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道理顯而易見,不需一直反覆述說。
12:24
Obviously trial and error is very important.
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所有人都懂試驗和錯誤是非常重要。
12:26
Obviously experimentation is very important.
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每個人也都理解,實驗的精神很重要。
12:28
Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"
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所以,為何要四處跑著宣傳這些常識呢?」
12:31
So I say, okay, fine.
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於是,我回答: 「我懂你的意思。
12:33
You think it's obvious?
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你認為這是常識?
12:35
I will admit it's obvious
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我承認道理很簡單,
12:37
when schools
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當學校開始
12:39
start teaching children
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教學生
12:42
that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.
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有些問題並沒有所謂的正解時。
12:45
Stop giving them lists of questions
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別再給他們一成串的問題,
12:48
every single one of which has an answer.
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而每個問題都有個固定答案。
12:50
And there's an authority figure in the corner
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更別提,權威的主流思想
12:52
behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.
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暗藏在老師的桌下,這些自識萬能的老師。
12:54
And if you can't find the answers,
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學生如果找不到答案,
12:56
you must be lazy or stupid.
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就會被視為天性懶惰或是天資駑鈍。
12:58
When schools stop doing that all the time,
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學校一旦停止這般的教育時,
13:00
I will admit that, yes,
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我會承認,
13:02
it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.
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試驗和錯誤會有所助益。
13:04
When a politician stands up
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如果,當一名政客起身
13:07
campaigning for elected office
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替選情登高一呼:
13:09
and says, "I want to fix our health system.
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「我承諾當選後,會整頓醫療系統。
13:11
I want to fix our education system.
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還有教育組織。
13:13
I have no idea how to do it.
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不過我毫無頭續。
13:16
I have half a dozen ideas.
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雖然腦子裡有半打的主意。
13:18
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.
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即便這些點子全都將陣亡,但是我們還是會一個一個測試。
13:21
Then we'll test some other ideas out.
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然後,我們會繼續想出其他方法。
13:23
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.
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其中有些會有效。我們便可奠基於此。
13:25
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --
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剔除那些無效的方式。」
13:27
when a politician campaigns on that platform,
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如同你我,選民聽到這般的牛肉,
13:30
and more importantly, when voters like you and me
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從政客口中說出,
13:33
are willing to vote for that kind of politician,
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會願意投他一票。
13:35
then I will admit
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接下來,
13:37
that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.
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我願意承認,試驗和錯誤這個常識有效。感謝。
13:40
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
13:44
Until then, until then
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在那時以前,
13:47
I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error
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我將會繼續傳播我的思想,
13:49
and why we should abandon the God complex.
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為何我們應禁絕上帝情結的大頭症。
13:52
Because it's so hard
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因為,承認我們會失敗,
13:55
to admit our own fallibility.
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是件困難事。
13:57
It's so uncomfortable.
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還會令人渾身不對勁。
13:59
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
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和各位一樣,亞契.科克倫體會到這點。
14:02
There's this one trial he ran
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二次大戰結束的數年後,
14:04
many years after World War II.
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他另外又做了個測試。
14:06
He wanted to test out
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他想測出
14:09
the question of, where is it
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心臟病發的患者
14:11
that patients should recover
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該在何處較能
14:13
from heart attacks?
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從病痛中康復?
14:15
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,
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如果醫院安排他們在特別的心臟治療區,會康復嗎?
14:18
or should they recover at home?
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還是該讓他們在家靜養?
14:21
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.
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全部的心臟科醫生都不支持這項作法。
14:24
They had the God complex in spades.
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他們都有大頭症。
14:27
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,
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認為醫院一定是最佳場所。
14:30
and they knew it was very unethical
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他們也認為進行任何的測試
14:32
to run any kind of trial or experiment.
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是有違人道。
14:35
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.
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然而,亞契排除萬難
14:37
He ran his trial.
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進行他的實驗。
14:39
And after the trial had been running for a little while,
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實驗進行沒多久
14:41
he gathered together all his colleagues
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他集合所有的同僚
14:43
around his table,
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到他的桌前
14:45
and he said, "Well, gentlemen,
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宣佈:「各位,
14:47
we have some preliminary results.
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一些初步的結果已經出來了,
14:49
They're not statistically significant.
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雖然數據上並不顯著,
14:51
But we have something.
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但是
14:54
And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.
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結果是我錯了。
14:57
It is dangerous for patients
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在家靜養
14:59
to recover from heart attacks at home.
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對病人風險太高。
15:01
They should be in hospital."
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他們該待在醫院。」
15:04
And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table
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此時,一陣喧囂,所有的醫生都開始搥桌
15:06
and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.
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怒罵:「我們老早就警告過你了,亞契。
15:09
You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.
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你這麼做只是拿病人的性命開玩笑,你得立刻停止這一切。
15:12
Shut it down at once."
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馬上!」
15:14
And there's this huge hubbub.
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接著又是一陣叫喊嘈雜。
15:16
Archie lets it die down.
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亞契試著平息眾怒。
15:18
And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,
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接著他對他們說:各位,
15:20
because when I gave you the table of results,
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我會給你們一桌的報告,
15:23
I swapped the two columns around.
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交換兩個專欄的版面,因為結果饒富趣味,
15:27
It turns out your hospitals are killing people,
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你們的醫院事實上荼毒生靈,
15:29
and they should be at home.
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病患其實該待在家中。
15:31
Would you like to close down the trial now,
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所以,各位想立刻停止實驗,
15:34
or should we wait until we have robust results?"
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還是想靜待有力證據出爐呢?
15:38
Tumbleweed
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風吹但草不動。
15:40
rolls through the meeting room.
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會議室一片靜默。
15:43
But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.
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柯克倫會做這樣的事情
15:46
And the reason he would do that kind of thing
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原因是
15:48
is because he understood
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他瞭解
15:50
it feels so much better
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他會因此感覺良好
15:52
to stand there and say,
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並且能站出來並宣佈
15:54
"Here in my own little world,
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:「此地,我為王。
15:56
I am a god, I understand everything.
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我是上帝,瞭解萬物,
15:58
I do not want to have my opinions challenged.
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不讓任何人挑戰我。
16:00
I do not want to have my conclusions tested."
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不讓任何人檢視我的研究結果。」
16:03
It feels so much more comfortable
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這種感覺無以倫比。
16:05
simply to lay down the law.
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不過就是清楚地表明遊戲規則。
16:08
Cochrane understood
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柯克倫懂
16:10
that uncertainty, that fallibility,
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不確定性、錯誤性
16:12
that being challenged, they hurt.
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會被挑戰,他們會失去江城。
16:14
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.
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有時,會震驚。
16:18
Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.
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我不會假裝,這一切看似容易。
16:21
It isn't easy.
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其實一點也不。
16:23
It's incredibly painful.
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極其痛苦。
16:25
And since I started talking about this subject
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自從我討論這個主題,
16:27
and researching this subject,
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研究它之後,
16:29
I've been really haunted by something
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有個不知名的東西一直縈繞著我,
16:31
a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.
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是日本的一名數學家說的話
16:33
So shortly after the war,
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戰後不久後,
16:35
this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,
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谷山豐(Yutaka Taniyama)那時還是個年輕人,
16:38
developed this amazing conjecture
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他發明出這個
16:40
called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.
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稱為「谷山- 志村猜想」的理論。
16:42
It turned out to be absolutely instrumental
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日後,該猜想地位重要。
16:45
many decades later
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數十年後,
16:47
in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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費馬大定理被證明。
16:49
In fact, it turns out it's equivalent
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事實上,
16:51
to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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谷山-志村猜想和費馬大定理並駕齊驅。
16:53
You prove one, you prove the other.
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證明一者,亦證出另一者。
16:57
But it was always a conjecture.
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但猜想永遠是猜想。
17:00
Taniyama tried and tried and tried
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谷山試了又試,
17:03
and he could never prove that it was true.
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從未能夠證明正確性。
17:06
And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,
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1958年,在他30歲生日沒多久後,
17:09
Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.
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谷山便自我了斷。
17:13
His friend, Goro Shimura --
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身兼同事與友人的志村五郎(Goro Shimura )
17:15
who worked on the mathematics with him --
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和他一起研究數學,
17:17
many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.
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在數十年後,
17:22
He said,
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回憶起谷山的一生,
17:25
"He was not a very careful person
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他說:「他不是個小心翼翼的數學家。
17:27
as a mathematician.
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身為數學家
17:29
He made a lot of mistakes.
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他犯了很多錯誤。
17:32
But he made mistakes in a good direction.
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但都導向正確的道路。
17:36
I tried to emulate him,
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我曾試著迎頭趕上,
17:39
but I realized
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但終究
17:41
it is very difficult
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我理解到,這極其困難。
17:43
to make good mistakes."
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特別是犯良性錯誤。」
17:46
Thank you.
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謝謝各位的聆聽。
17:48
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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