Peter van Manen: How can Formula 1 racing help ... babies?

Prevodilac: Dejan Vicai Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

Motor racing is a funny old business.

Trka automobila je zanimljiva stara zabava.

We make a new car every year,

Pravimo nove automobile svake godine

and then we spend the rest of the season

i onda tokom ostatka sezone

trying to understand what it is we've built

pokušavamo da razumemo šta smo to napravili

to make it better, to make it faster.

da bi bili bolji i brži.

And then the next year, we start again.

A naredne godine, počinjemo ispočetka.

Now, the car you see in front of you is quite complicated.

Kola koja vidite ispred vas su dosta komplikovana.

The chassis is made up of about 11,000 components,

Šasija je sastavljena od oko 11.000 komponenti,

the engine another 6,000,

motor od još oko 6.000,

the electronics about eight and a half thousand.

elektronika od oko 8.500.

So there's about 25,000 things there that can go wrong.

Znači, 25.000 stvari može da pođe po zlu.

So motor racing is very much about attention to detail.

U trci automobila se najviše radi o detaljima.

The other thing about Formula 1 in particular

Druga stvar naročito vezana za Formulu 1

is we're always changing the car.

je da uvek menjamo automobil.

We're always trying to make it faster.

Uvek pokušavamo da ga napravimo bržim.

So every two weeks, we will be making

Svake dve nedelje, napravićemo

about 5,000 new components to fit to the car.

oko 5.000 novih komponenti za automobil.

Five to 10 percent of the race car

5 do 10% trkačkih automobila

will be different every two weeks of the year.

biće drugačije svake dve nedelje u godini.

So how do we do that?

Kako to postižemo?

Well, we start our life with the racing car.

Počnemo život sa trkačkim kolima.

We have a lot of sensors on the car to measure things.

Imamo mnogo senzora za merenje na kolima.

On the race car in front of you here

Na trkačkim kolima ispred vas

there are about 120 sensors when it goes into a race.

ima oko 120 senzora kada je u trci.

It's measuring all sorts of things around the car.

Oni mere svakakve stvari.

That data is logged. We're logging about

Podaci se beleže.

500 different parameters within the data systems,

Beležimo oko 500 različitih parametara unutar sistema,

about 13,000 health parameters and events

oko 13.000 zdravstvenih parametara i događaja

to say when things are not working the way they should do,

da nam saopšte kada stvari ne rade kako bi trebalo.

and we're sending that data back to the garage

I šaljemo te podatke nazad u garažu

using telemetry at a rate of two to four megabits per second.

koristeći telemetriju, brzinom od dva do četiri megabita po sekundi.

So during a two-hour race, each car will be sending

Tako da tokom dvosatne trke, svaka kola će poslati

750 million numbers.

750 miliona brojki.

That's twice as many numbers as words that each of us

To je duplo više brojeva od reči koje svaki od nas

speaks in a lifetime.

izgovori tokom života.

It's a huge amount of data.

To je velika količina podataka.

But it's not enough just to have data and measure it.

Ali nije dovoljno samo da imate podatke i da ih merite.

You need to be able to do something with it.

Treba da ste sposobni da uradite nešto sa njima.

So we've spent a lot of time and effort

Potrošili smo puno vremena i truda

in turning the data into stories

pretvarajući podatke u priče

to be able to tell, what's the state of the engine,

da bismo mogli da ispričamo kakvo je stanje motora,

how are the tires degrading,

kako se troše gume,

what's the situation with fuel consumption?

kakvo je stanje sa potrošnjom goriva?

So all of this is taking data

Sve ovo meri neke podatke

and turning it into knowledge that we can act upon.

i pretvara u znanje po kojem možemo da postupamo.

Okay, so let's have a look at a little bit of data.

U redu, hajde da pogledamo delić podataka.

Let's pick a bit of data from

Uzmimo delić podatka

another three-month-old patient.

o drugom tromesečnom pacijentu.

This is a child, and what you're seeing here is real data,

Ovo je dete i ono što vidite ovde su pravi podaci

and on the far right-hand side,

i na krajnjoj desnoj strani,

where everything starts getting a little bit catastrophic,

gde sve počinje da bude pomalo katastrofično,

that is the patient going into cardiac arrest.

to pacijent doživljava srčani zastoj.

It was deemed to be an unpredictable event.

Smatralo se da je to bio nepredvidljivi događaj.

This was a heart attack that no one could see coming.

Bio je to srčani udar koji niko nije mogao da predvidi.

But when we look at the information there,

Ali ako tu pogledamo podatke,

we can see that things are starting to become

vidimo da se stvari počinju mutiti

a little fuzzy about five minutes or so before the cardiac arrest.

oko pet minuta pred srčani zastoj.

We can see small changes

Vidimo male promene

in things like the heart rate moving.

u stvarima kao što je promena pulsa.

These were all undetected by normal thresholds

One su bile neprimećene pri normalnim pragovima

which would be applied to data.

koji bi se mogli primeniti na podatke.

So the question is, why couldn't we see it?

Pitanje je, zašto to nismo mogli da primetimo?

Was this a predictable event?

Da li je to bio predvidljiv događaj?

Can we look more at the patterns in the data

Da li možemo bolje da sagledamo obrasce u podacima

to be able to do things better?

da bismo bolje radili?

So this is a child,

Ovo je dete,

about the same age as the racing car on stage,

otprilike iste dobi kao trkački automobili na bini,

three months old.

tri meseca.

It's a patient with a heart problem.

To dete je pacijent sa srčanim problemom.

Now, when you look at some of the data on the screen above,

Ako pogledamo neke od podataka na ekranu iznad,

things like heart rate, pulse, oxygen, respiration rates,

stvari poput otkucaja srca, pulsa, kiseonika, brzine disanja,

they're all unusual for a normal child,

sve su neobične za normalno dete,

but they're quite normal for the child there,

ali su sasvim normalne za ovo dete.

and so one of the challenges you have in health care is,

Jedan od izazova zdravstva

how can I look at the patient in front of me,

je kako mogu da pregledam pacijenta

have something which is specific for her,

za koga je nešto specifično

and be able to detect when things start to change,

i da uočim stvari kada počnu da se menjaju

when things start to deteriorate?

i da se pogoršavaju?

Because like a racing car, any patient,

Isto kao i trkački automobil, za svakog pacijenta

when things start to go bad, you have a short time

kada se stvari pogoršaju, imate malo vremena

to make a difference.

da napravite razliku.

So what we did is we took a data system

Uzeli smo sistem podataka

which we run every two weeks of the year in Formula 1

koji koristimo svake dve nedelje tokom godine za Formulu 1

and we installed it on the hospital computers

i instalirali smo ih u bolničke kompjutere

at Birmingham Children's Hospital.

u dečijoj bolnici u Birmingemu.

We streamed data from the bedside instruments

Pratili smo podatke sa instrumenata pored kreveta

in their pediatric intensive care

u intenzivnoj nezi pedijatrije

so that we could both look at the data in real time

kako bismo mogli da sagledamo podatke u stvarnom vremenu

and, more importantly, to store the data

i što je važnije, da sačuvamo podatke

so that we could start to learn from it.

kako bismo mogli da učimo iz njih.

And then, we applied an application on top

Tada smo primenili aplikaciju

which would allow us to tease out the patterns in the data

koja bi nam omogućila da izvučemo obrasce iz podataka

in real time so we could see what was happening,

u stvarnom vremenu, da bismo videli šta se dešava

so we could determine when things started to change.

i kako bismo odredili kada su stvari počele da se menjaju.

Now, in motor racing, we're all a little bit ambitious,

U trkama automobila svi smo pomalo ambiciozni,

audacious, a little bit arrogant sometimes,

drski, ponekad pomalo arogantni,

so we decided we would also look at the children

pa smo odlučili da posmatramo decu

as they were being transported to intensive care.

dok se prenose u intenzivnu negu.

Why should we wait until they arrived in the hospital

Zašto da čekamo da stignu u bolnicu pre nego što počnemo

before we started to look?

da ih posmatramo?

And so we installed a real-time link

Tako da smo postavili vezu u stvarnom vremenu

between the ambulance and the hospital,

između ambulantnih kola i bolnice,

just using normal 3G telephony to send that data

koristeći samo normalnu 3G telefoniju da šaljemo podatke,

so that the ambulance became an extra bed

pa bi ambulantna kola postala dodatni krevet

in intensive care.

u intenzivnoj nezi.

And then we started looking at the data.

Zatim smo počeli da pregledamo podatke.

So the wiggly lines at the top, all the colors,

Krivudave linije na vrhu, sve boje,

this is the normal sort of data you would see on a monitor --

to je normalna vrsta podataka koju biste videli na monitoru –

heart rate, pulse, oxygen within the blood,

otkucaji srca, puls, kiseonik u krvi

and respiration.

i disanje.

The lines on the bottom, the blue and the red,

Linije da dnu, plave i crvene,

these are the interesting ones.

te su zanimljive.

The red line is showing an automated version

Crvena pokazuje automatizovanu verziju

of the early warning score

ranog upozoravajućeg rezultata

that Birmingham Children's Hospital were already running.

koju dečija bolnica u Birmingemu već koristi.

Koriste to već od 2008. godine

They'd been running that since 2008,

and already have stopped cardiac arrests

i već su zaustavili srčane zastoje

and distress within the hospital.

i uznemirenost u bolnici.

The blue line is an indication

Plava linija je pokazatelj

of when patterns start to change,

kada obrasci počinju da se menjaju,

and immediately, before we even started

i momentalno, pre nego što smo i počeli

putting in clinical interpretation,

kliničku interpretaciju,

we can see that the data is speaking to us.

možemo videti da nam podaci govore.

It's telling us that something is going wrong.

Govore nam da nešto nije u redu.

The plot with the red and the green blobs,

Crtež sa crvenim i zelenim mrljama,

this is plotting different components

ovo zapliće različite komponente podataka

of the data against each other.

jedne protiv drugih.

The green is us learning what is normal for that child.

Zeleno je ono što nam pokazuje šta je normalno za to dete.

We call it the cloud of normality.

To zovemo oblakom normalnosti.

And when things start to change,

A kada stvari počnu da se menjaju,

when conditions start to deteriorate,

kada uslovi počnu da se pogoršavaju,

we move into the red line.

dolazimo do crvene linije.

There's no rocket science here.

Nije nuklearna fizika.

It is displaying data that exists already in a different way,

Pokazuje podatke koji već postoje na različite načine,

to amplify it, to provide cues to the doctors,

da ih pojača, da obezbedi naznake lekarima,

to the nurses, so they can see what's happening.

medicinskim sestrama, kako bi videli šta se dešava.

In the same way that a good racing driver

Na isti način kao što se dobar vozač

relies on cues to decide when to apply the brakes,

oslanja na naznake da odluči kada da koristi kočnice,

when to turn into a corner,

kada da skrene u krivinu,

we need to help our physicians and our nurses

treba da pomognemo našim lekarima i medicinskim sestrama

to see when things are starting to go wrong.

da uoče stvari kada počnu da budu loše.

So we have a very ambitious program.

Tako da imamo jako ambiciozan program.

We think that the race is on to do something differently.

Mislimo da je trka počela da bi se uradilo nešto drugačije.

We are thinking big. It's the right thing to do.

Mislimo veliko. To je prava stvar da se uradi.

We have an approach which, if it's successful,

Imamo pristup koji, ako je uspešan,

there's no reason why it should stay within a hospital.

nema razloga zašto da ostane unutar bolnica.

Može da ide van zidova.

It can go beyond the walls.

With wireless connectivity these days,

Sa bežičnim povezivanjem današnjice,

there is no reason why patients, doctors and nurses

nema razloga zašto pacijenti, lekari i medicinske sestre

always have to be in the same place

uvek moraju da budu na istom mestu,

at the same time.

u isto vreme.

And meanwhile, we'll take our little three-month-old baby,

U međuvremenu, uzećemo našu tromesečnu bebu,

keep taking it to the track, keeping it safe,

nosićemo je na stazu, čuvaćemo je

and making it faster and better.

i učinićemo da bude brža i bolja.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam najlepše.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)